by Paul Goldman

Usually, U.S. Senator Mark Warner revels in being the deal-making, more conservative Virginia Senator, wearing liberal attacks as a badge of honor. Senator Tim Kaine is usually attacked by conservative Republicans for being too liberal and suffering from Trump Derangement Syndrome. Kaine revels in those attacks.

But on the congressional shutdown vote, Kaine went Republican MAGA right while Warner went Bernie Sanders left. Has politics flipped its magnetic field? Is the rapture so close that Tim and Mark are trying to get good with God? 

The answer is far simpler. Warner is up for reelection next year. He knows he’s vulnerable to a primary challenge from the Bernie Sanders wing of Democratic party. The Vermont Senator Sanders is already all over the Internet, blasting the eight Democrats who voted with the Republicans. Sanders hasn’t accused them of selling out to Trump. Or being like the leaders of Vichy France. Not yet anyway. Warner figured it was better to join Bernie than fight him. It surely seemed the safer political move. But is it really? 

Senator Kaine is not up for reelection next year. It’s no surprise none of the Democrats siding with the Trump Republicans are up for reelection next year. As Yogi Berra would say, some things are too coincidental to be a coincidence.

Moreover, it’s seems to me the Kaine move is part of a set-piece Senate Democrat strategy. Is that me being super cynical? I’m thinking the Dems want to keep attacking the Republicans for being cruel and uncaring but at the same time they don’t want to be blamed for shutting down the government, thereby inflicting an increasingly terrible toll on tens millions of Americans. The polls blame Trump now. But they could change. Particularly during the holiday season. Indeed, the holiday season is when most retailers make a break or break their year. Having all those people out of work is bad for business. Surely the Democratic leadership knew they had some risk. 

As I understand it, Kaine was likely the last one to formally join the gang of eight. Seems to me, Tim agreed to take one for the team. But the likely reason he could do it is the very reason Warner may have been backed into a corner in 2026. 

Warner can’t criticize someone who sides with Kaine against him. Kaine can’t defend Mark either given his reasoning. Kaine said he couldn’t abide the damage being done to all those federal workers and their families in NOVA. But by this logical, he is implying Mr. Warner could. Oops! 

The potential attack line: Warner is putting his politics ahead of the people in NOVA. Remember:  As I’ve been writing for decades, the Virginia Republican problem is their weakness in Northern Virginia ever since the abortion issue emerged as a huge voting definer in 1989. NOVA is the biggest geographical voting bloc in the Commonwealth. They increasingly reject the anti-education, anti-tolerance,  pro –MAGA divisiveness increasingly defining the Virginia GOP.

My gut: While it seemed the safer play for Warner, he’s given a female challenger both in the Democratic primary or a Republican in the general election a chance to use Kaine to paint the richest Senator into an elitist corner. 

Or should I say: Mark might be in the corner if there was anyone in the Virginia GOP who knew how to play the game or better yet, gave a damn about federal workers and their families. Remember: Despite the grandiose speeches and Fourth of July references by the Senators in Washington, all politics is local. Warner may crave being head of the intelligence committee again. But that’s not why the people in NOVA elected him particularly right now. 

I don’t think any Democrat would have the nerve to challenge Mark. Not to mention the money. 

But a female GOP pro-education candidate who could get to the middle on social issues and been seen caring about NOVA workers would cut into Mark’s NOVA margin. She can paint the richest Senator as letting all those working families twist slowly in the wind. 

As Mark himself proved years ago: If you make a credible challenge to a sitting United States Senator, you set yourself up for a future run for governor and getting the party nomination without a fight. I know, I helped him do it. So, there’s a good reason for the right, clever, Republican to challenge Warner even if he likely wins the general election

In terms of Virginia, given Trump’s all-out war against the people of NOVA, I think Tim did the right thing for his constituents. If he represented a different state, I think he would have voted differently. 

He will get blasted big time for it by party liberals. But it is the humane thing with the approach of the holiday season. He is a Virginia Senator. Tim has said it’s cruel and unusual punishment for his people. He is right. A tough vote for sure. He will need to sell his rationale far better though. Like I say, he is gonna take heat. 

But last I checked, Bernie Sanders was a multimillionaire. He likes to complain about the one percent. But I don’t recall him giving back any of the Trump tax cuts he called immoral. Is he taking his salary during this shutdown? I bet all the liberals are. Gosh forbid they should give that money to a food bank or some poor black or brown kid. 

You can’t defeat MAGA’s war on our democracy unless you fix the American education system. Wasn’t Bernie the education committee head?

Everybody tells me you can’t criticize Bernie because he’s got the biggest backing in the Democratic Party. 

All I know is that Bernie Sanders complained how he couldn’t get any votes in the South when he ran for president. The biggest need in the Southland is to educate our kids. The South has the greatest percentage of minorities of any area in the country. Yet the leading liberal says he can’t get any votes here. 

All Mr. Sanders had to do to win Southern votes was live up to the 1964 Democratic Party platform promise on equal educational opportunities. A platform he praises because he knows Dr. Martin Luther King Jr’s ideas  on education are in there. 

I’ve showed Mr. Sanders how to make King’s fight for equal educational opportunities a reality. 

He can attack Mr. Kaine all he wants. It’s good politics for him.

How many federal workers do they have in Vermont?

I thought so. 

Therefore chance of Tim Kaine being to the right of Mark Warner on this issue is simply not possible. But like I say, the Democrats need a two-prong strategy. They need to keep pounding the Republicans in anticipation of the 2026 election. But at the same time too many Hard-working, American families are being crushed by Trump‘s shutdown.

Governing requires making difficult choices. This is particularly true when you have a president more interested in huge ballrooms and getting his name on baseball stadiums than solving the real problems facing Americans confronted with rising prices and declining employment.

Paul Goldman is former Chair of the VA Democratic Party, a former candidate for mayor of the City of Richmond, and author of “Remaking Virginia Politics.”