by Paul Goldman

History says Democratic voters do not believe repeal of the right-to- law is a major issue. Abigail Spanberger, the Democratic candidate for governor, should have simply said no to repeal and pivoted to far more important issues to working families. The right-to-work law is increasingly irrelevant in today’s AI revolution, which is threatening the jobs of labor and management.

The two-party system in Virginia began in 1977. In the ensuing years, one consistent, predictive fact stands out: The gubernatorial candidate for the party of the sitting president has never received 50% of the vote. Ever. The gubernatorial candidate of the sitting president’s party has lost every election except in 2013 due in good measure to the contest featuring a three-way. The only time the winner got less than 50%.

In 2017, Republican Donald Trump occupied the oval office. Democratic gubernatorial candidate Ralph Northam received nearly 54% of the vote. Therein winning by the biggest Democratic margin in 32 years. President Trump again sits in the oval office. He has lost Virginia three straight times by sizable margins. He has a net negative -20% approval rating in the public opinion polls.

In my view, Spanberger can’t lose unless she runs the worst gubernatorial campaign in the modern era. Historical statistical analysis says she should win by between 6 to 10 percentage points, if not more. In doing so she will sweep in the Democratic ticket unless one of her running mates has a fatal flaw.

When queried by a television reporter, Spanberger should have simply said I will not support repeal of the right to work law. Period. End of story.

However, as first-time statewide candidates are prone to do, Spanberger tried to have it both ways. She wanted to move away from her approach in Congress. But not all the way to the No Repeal side. So, she chose no repeal with an asterisk.

Presumably, her advisers decided it would be seen — politics is perception — as a crass flip-flop to go all the way to No Repeal camp. So, they tried to find a middle ground to satisfy both sides.

But there is no middle ground that will satisfy the No Repeal camp. Precisely why Spanberger thought she needed to change her position on the issue is not clear to me. But if she did then all she had to do is say what Doug Wilder said about the death penalty, what Mark Warner said about several issues, and Tim Kaine also on the death penalty: in effect, I’ve had time to think about certain issues and I’ve changed my mind as to how best to deal with them. Truth is, voters respect people who changed their minds on matters and are honest about it. This honesty about changing your mind counterintuitively enhances candidate credibility with the voters. As long as it doesn’t become a pattern.

No one expects Congresswoman Spanberger was always right on every issue. I see where Jim Bacon, speaking for the Mo Repeal camp, feels preserving the right-to-work law is the central economic issue of the campaign. That is simply not true and certainly Jim knows better. The right-to-work law issue has long been a minor issue in state gubernatorial campaigns to all but a handful of voters.

Indeed, if you ask people about the law in polls, many actually don’t even understand the law because the title is confusing. Experience has taught me it’s always risky to try to have too detailed a discussion in a political campaign.

Spanberger will now have to explain what parts of the law she thinks require reform and what parts do not as Bacon has properly observed. This is a potential quagmire for even the most skilled statewide candidate.

However, let’s be honest: The Republican gubernatorial candidate is desperate for an issue and seized on the right-to-work law. She lacks a strategy — as history predicts — to win the election this year. If her running mates have competent advisers, they will know the winning gubernatorial candidate has swept in their tickets the last four straight times. Partisan voting has dramatically increased in Virginia compared to the huge block of swing voters documented by Professor Sabato in his earlier works.

Spanberger wanted to throw a political bone to labor and a different one to business. But her premise is wrong I believe: In today’s rapidly changing economic universe, the old lines have been replaced by a more complex dynamic. This is something both sides need to realize quickly.

The AI revolution, unlike other historic working economy changes, threatens the jobs of both workers and management. Robots don’t need unions. AI bots don’t need managers, particularly middle managers. The nature of the American workforce is undergoing its most profound restructuring since the industrial revolution.

Thus, the Repeal v. No Repeal dichotomy is an old battle line whose relevancy pales compared to the real issues facing working families in Virginia. Spanberger understandably wanted to neutralize her Republican opponent’s main issue. My hunch is she’s likely made it more relevant in terms of campaign noise until election day. But it’s not gonna save the GOP this year.

What working families need now more than ever is a high-quality education with equal opportunities for all. Our public education system is failing badly, not only in city neighborhoods, but in our rural counties and suburban communities. No governor and no General Assembly has dared face this growing crisis. Neither has either party. But this is now backfiring on our society. Time is running out.

There was a time when our society honestly thought education was the great equalizer. But more and more, Republican politicians prefer to attack the Department of Educational while the Democrats seem only interested in foolishly thinking they can mandate equal results.

To put it bluntly: We are retreating back to a caste system where the children of working families are denied an equal education, condemning them to a lower caste. Our culture finds being an educated person less and less important. More and more we value an educated mind not because it makes us a better citizen, but because it might get us a better job.

We need to repeal those laws and other obstacles preventing the children of working families from getting the education they need to be all they can be. This is job #1! …not right-to-working repeal.

If you study American history, the most important issue for working families from the beginning of this republic has been getting their kids high quality public education. They understood education is the great equalizer. We barely even give this lip service in today’s politics.

In the great scheme of things, the right-to- work law is a side bar. It misses the larger need.

To quote Bob Dylan, the times they are a changing. Fast.

Paul Goldman is former Chair of the VA Democratic Party and author of “Remaking Virginia Politics.”