Professor Larry Sabato: Stand-Up Guy

Professor Larry Sabato has stepped forward to correct erroneous information being promulgated by the Russ Potts Admiration Society, Washington Post Chapter. Here is the text of the letter he has sent them, provided in a Center for Politics press release:

“To the Editor:

“Regarding your editorial on independent gubernatorial candidate H. Russell Potts Jr. (“A Radical in Virginia”), and his exclusion from candidate debates, you make a serious error. The editorial reads: “That arbitrary condition [the 15 percent rule for inclusion] was set by the Kilgore campaign and agreed to by the debate’s sponsor, the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.” Nothing could be further from the truth.

“First, the 15 percent rule is certainly not arbitrary. It is the established standard at the national level, via the Commission on Presidential Debates, and it is the established standard in Virginia. Just to cite one example, when we had our 2001 gubernatorial TV debate (sponsored by the Center) in October, we used the very same 15 percent standard, which resulted in the exclusion of Libertarian William Redpath, who had filed the necessary signatures and secured a place on the November ballot. When we consulted with legal experts before making our debate proposal this year, the one thing they insisted upon was that we should be consistent and not arbitrary, and therefore should maintain the same standard used for years and years in considering Mr. Potts’ independent candidacy. That is precisely what we did, and so your word “arbitrary” should in fact have read “consistent.”

“Second, the Center, not the Kilgore campaign as your editorial states, proposed the 15 percent rule in our original proposal to the campaigns in May. The Kilgore campaign immediately balked. We could have had a debate agreement in May had we caved in, but instead we held firm for about four months, insisting that the debate needed to provide a reasonable, consistent way for Potts to qualify. At several points, it appeared that our debate had been shelved permanently because we would not budge on that principle. Finally, under pressure to agree to a statewide TV debate, the Kilgore campaign relented a couple of weeks ago. Our position never changed; the Kilgore camp’s position changed.

“Our debate is the only one of the three organized this year to provide a reasonable opportunity for Mr. Potts to participate. We are pleased to have achieved this, and we hope he qualifies.”

Dr. Larry J. Sabato
Director, Center for Politics
University of Virginia

There is no sparing of Jerry Kilgore, whipping boy of the Potts Club, for his campaign’s role in delaying a debate agreement, but there is what appears to me to be the truth and a more than convincing explanation for why Russ Potts is not in any debates at this time.

Sabato sent a similar missive to the Daily Press Chapter. I say he is a stand-up guy.


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Comments

  1. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Back to the question at hand…“First, the 15 percent rule is certainly not arbitrary..

    Larry, it’s not arbitrary but it is flawed.

    This is not a national debate! It is a debate about Virginia for Virginians. The standard in Virginia is 10,000 signatures, Potts got 24,000. 5,000 more than Kaine. Something you fail to address entirely!

    Your logic today is as flawed today as it was 4 years beacuse this is not a national debate. WE HAVE STANDARDS IN VIRGINIA – 10,000 signatures.

  2. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Those are the standards for getting on the ballot, not for getting into debates. They are consistent. The libertarian candidate in 2001 met the criteria for the ballot, but not for the debates.

    My guess is that anybody who wanted to spend $10,000 could get 10,000 signatures on a petition. And I imagine that getting a chance to appear on TV to debate the candidates would be worth it to many organizations.

    If you don’t have a real support criteria in a head-to-head poll, there would be nothing to stop anybody from crashing the debates.

    Imagine a group of the conservative republicans picking their best debater and getting 10,000 signatures, just to be in the debate and rip into Kaine.

    It would take a debate which already is next to useless, and make it completely so.

    The reason we don’t have to chose between 20 different candidates for governor is because people who have no chance of winning know they have no chance and don’t bother to get the signatures. Open the debate to every candidate on the ballot, and you will make the debates into a joke.

    Imagine last year’s California special election if the debate had all 100+ candidates.

    Charles R. (too lazy to log in)

  3. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Charles R. – Good points. However, you, like so many others fail to address MAJOR factors that are specific to this race.

    1) Potts got 5,000 more signatures than Kaine.

    2) Potts has been elected more times than Kaine and Kilgore combined.

    3) 14 years in the Senate of Virgina and you are not a qualified candidate?

    -Anon. 8:04

  4. Will Vehrs Avatar
    Will Vehrs

    Potts is a qualified candidate, but as yet, not a realistic candidate. Anon, I don’t see you asking for a 2001 “do-over” because Redpath was kept out. Was Russ Potts fighting for Redpath back then? Guess not, he was a different guy back then.

    Ross Perot had never won an election, but he registered enough support in the polls to be a realistic candidate and got to debate.

    If Russ Potts is the next big thing that you think he is, he’ll be at 15% by the televised debate. Neither major party candidate is debating right now and every newspaper is pimping for Potts. If that doesn’t get him to where he needs to be, it’s not going to happen.

  5. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    1) Redpath didn’t get more signatures than a major party candidate so that’s not a fair comparison.

    2) Perot was involved in a Presidential election. Respectfully, this is a Commonwealth matter.

    3) See my post above about the 15% being flawed.

    I have yet to see any worthwhile reason why Potts’ should not be included based on the factors that are RELATIVE to this race (see above).

    I always see specific reasons why Potts should not be included. However, they fail to address the points that were mentioned above.

    Anon 8:04 PM, 8:40 PM

  6. Not Larry Sabato Avatar
    Not Larry Sabato

    Agreed with anonymous. The criteria should be whether the candidate is credible. Redpath was not. Potts is.

    As far as what makes a credible candidate, the Supreme Court said it best. I’ll know it, when I see it.

  7. Dave Burgess Avatar
    Dave Burgess

    To 8:04 pm, Anonymous; you state, “This is not a national debate! It is a debate about Virginia for Virginians.” Prof. Sabato already told in his letter that the Center was following the same rules in 2001. Where were you in defending Libertarian candidate William Redpath? I bet you did not even care back then because Redpath was not your pick.

    Regard the fact that Potts gathered more signatures than Kaine. You conveniently leave out the other fact that Potts had a hired hand collecting signatures and paid commissions for those signatures. Therefore, the idea of Potts leading Kaine in signatures is not as impressive as you make it out.

    Lastly, you state, “We have standards in Virginia.” Who are we? Where is it written or verbally communicate in Virginia history those 10,000 signatures automatically qualify an individual the right to be included in a debate? My point again, where was the uproar over previous “exclusions”?

    Personally, I do not think it would sever the debate well to have a fringe candidate, who has a record of lies and fraud, to be included in a serious debate on the fate of Virginia’s future.

    In addition, to Not Larry Sabato, I sure like to know why he thinks one fringe candidate is more worthy than another. Sounds like a political racist.

  8. subpatre Avatar

    Anonymous9:40,
    According to my stooL pigeon,
    Redpath had “more than twice the signatures needed”,
    the probability of Redpath’s election was 0.00%,
    never polled over 5%, that
    they’d have loved the free publicity of a debate, but
    agreed with fixed standards for debate entry.

    Russ Potts: farther out in space than the Liberterians. LOL

  9. Barnie Day Avatar
    Barnie Day

    ANY threshold beyond ballot qualification is arbitrary. Maybe arbitrary thresolds are, in some value systems, necessary. At any rate, let’s call this one what it is, at best: consistently arbitrary. (Despair not, Potts fans–all this is doing is driving his numbers over this consistently arbitrary 15% threshold. He’ll be in the debate.)

  10. Not Guy Incognito Avatar
    Not Guy Incognito

    I pushed debate organizers for Redpath’s inclusion in 2001, and I’m pushing for Potts’ inclusion this year as well.

    I will say 15% is hardly a “standard”. I note Independent Seth Davis’ inclusion last year in the televised congressional debate held in Roanoke.

    The only difference is Boucher and Triplett didn’t care that he was included because he was truly a non-factor and not a potential spoiler.

  11. Steve Haner Avatar
    Steve Haner

    The 15 percent standard from the national debates is a tainted benchmark because that commission is completely under the thumb of Congress and the major political parties. The Establishment makes rules that protect The Establishment. Larry Sabato as the defender of The Establishment is more irony than I can stand. It is reasonably hard to get on the ballot in Virginia, and there is a pretty good argument that test is sufficient. Yes, Potts has won many elections, but Redpath’s Libertarian Party — while doomed to minor status by our system — has a good claim to legitimacy.

    One caveat: I think private entities hosting a debate can invite anyone they please and not invite anyone they please. If there is heat to take let them decide whether to take it. But if taxpayer dollars are involved at all, we’ve got a pretty good equal protection question here.

  12. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Let Potts debate. If the truth be
    known, he probably doesn’t want to
    debate. It will only expose his many flip-flops and he’ll probably
    stick his big foot in his big mouth.

  13. Dave Burgess Avatar
    Dave Burgess

    To 2:01 pm Anonymous, I agree to some extent. However, I’m saying that fair is fair and 15% is fair. I’m tired of Potts being treated special. He does not desire it.

    To Barnie, I dare say fat chance Potts will ever get 15%. In all seriousness and joking aside, do you really think there are that many ignorant Virginians out there?

    If so, then I’m afraid Virginia is in worst shape than anyone ever has thought.

  14. Barnie Day Avatar
    Barnie Day

    Over-estimating intelligence is a well-know, long-standing occupational hazard in this business.

  15. Dave Burgess Avatar
    Dave Burgess

    Sorry ’bout the one comment in my previous post. I meant to say Potts did not DESERVE special treatment.

    Anyway on to Barnie’s cavalier comment, having read his answer, I would have to agree and I have found over the past year I have grossly over-estimating the intelligence of many, including some supercilious journalist.

    I mean, I attribute my appeared lack of intelligence to only staying awake during the engineering classes and not the English ones. My bad. Yet even with my English faults, I am sure I know the difference between the truth and a lie. I am also sure I know when a politician has defrauded their constituents. Additionally, I know it is the better to combat malice than to give it any kind of credibility.

    I’m still trying to figure out Barnie’s excuse.

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