Bacon's Rebellion

Privatizing Mass Transit Is Looking Better All the Time

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by

James A. Bacon
in

Mass transit is one of those ideas that may sound better in theory than in practice, especially when the public sector is in charge. The Washington Metro is an undisputed managerial disaster, and the Virginia Railway Express ain’t lookin’ too sharp right now either.

The Fredericksburg Free Lance-Star has the goods: Last year, from July through November, trains were late on the Fredericksburg line 30 percent-40 percent of the time. Then the service had its first derailment in January, which shut down service for the rest of the day.

Lo and behold, what happened next? Ridership declined.

During the first three months of 2006, ridership was down an average of 4.2 percent compared with the first three months of 2005. … VRE knows there is a connection between the dip in passengers and delays, spokesman Mark Roeber said.

Update

: I cry “uncle.” It was rash of me to suggest that VRE’s on-time performance problems are related to its status as a state entity. VRE’s problems may well be attributable to its ticklish relationship with CSX Corp., which owns the railroad tracks, and the priority CSX gives its freight trains. I have no evidence to suggest otherwise. (See reader comments for criticism of my stance.)

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10 responses to “Privatizing Mass Transit Is Looking Better All the Time”

  1. Ray Hyde Avatar
    Ray Hyde

    Bingo.

    the Winston and Shirley report I have frequently quoted analyzes the type of managemet of (whatever it was, 228 bus companies and 60 rail companies) and they are able to make some observations based on private vs public operation, the degree of autoomy, and even the kind of public management.

    They suggest that a lot of mass transit, if privatized, would simply shut down because it isn’t profitable.

    What we really need to ask is why are these people traveling in the first place? What can we do to avoid the need for travel, and among those options, which are the least expensive, least disruptive, and most desired?

    VRE has to coordinate with freight traffic. I don’t know what the priorities are, and the issues may be simply manageing the traffic best way possible, but there is no doubt some delays are caused this way.

    VRE trains from F’burg have to merge with trains from Manassas for the inner stations. While trains leave the outer stations something like a half hour apart, they arrive at the iner stations only fifteen minutes apart. Merging is likely to cause delays whether it is by trains or by cars. If there is a merge of the silver line ad the orange lie, we will see more of the same.

    If everyone is trying to go to the same place at the same time, you will have congestion.

    I seem to remember something about the bridge on the F’burg line causing delays too. As I remember a ew bridge is under construction and should help that situation. Infrastructure helps.

  2. Jim Bacon Avatar
    Jim Bacon

    Ray, You’re right. My post might have been a cheap shot. Clearly VRE has problems coordinating its trains with CSX – a problem that would apply if it were privately owned and operated. Fix the problem with CSX, and I’ll bet that many of the on-time performance issues disappear.

  3. Toomanytaxes Avatar
    Toomanytaxes

    People need to think of transportation facilities as networks, which are only as good as their capacity at peak demand. What are the incremental costs and benefits for adding to capacity on specific facilities, be they roads or transit? Can anything be done to move demand from the “busy hour” that would be less costly than simply adding network capacity? Where can we achieve the greatest improvement in capacity for the least amount of cost?

    I sure wish that the Governor and Senate were asking some of these questions.

  4. E M Risse Avatar
    E M Risse

    Jim:

    It is not “public” vs “private.”

    Neither private-vehicle systems or shared-vehicle systems regardless of who runs them will work if there is not a balance between the travel demand generated by the human settlement pattern and the capacity of the systems created to provide access and mobility.

    It also does not matter how much money is thrown at congestion, it just grows worse until that same balance is achieved.

    On the other hand, shutting down all mobility and access systems that do not “pay for themselves” puts humans back in the pre-neolithic trading village context.

    Recall what A Einstein said about the Forth World War. The same is true for out of the fare box mobility and access. Mobility and access to the best hunting and gathering sites would be limited to the clans and bands with the largest clubs and the fastest runners.

    EMR

  5. Preston Lloyd Avatar
    Preston Lloyd

    Using on-time performance as the barometer of administrative competence is a problematic measure.

    Recall that VRE does not own the track or real estate upon which it’s trains operate. The Fredericksburg line is owned by CSX and are part of it’s main North-South line. This is to be compared with the Manassas line which runs East West and is owned by Norfolk Southern. NS’s major East-West traffic runs through Petersburg to Norfolk. The line they share with VRE traffic is not as crowded.

    Also recall the derailment of an Amtrak train in Maryland on a CSX line a few years ago during the summer. As a result of high temperatures, the rail had bowed, resulting in the derailment. As a result, CSX imposed “heat restriction” whenever the heat index reaches into the mid-90s (which is nearly every day of the summer in humid Northern Va.). These heat indexes slow down both freight and passenger trains on the Fredericksburg line and plays havoc with the schedules.

    VRE’s dependence on CSX for access to their lines, and the lack of financial leverage against the railroad means that remedies of the delays have been slow coming. Recall the pressure that Governor Warner put on CSX to use unclaimed funding that had been allocated by Congress for right-of-way improvements.

    This is a long way of saying, the unique sharing of resources that makes VRE possible necessitates a lot of administrative cat herding. Evaluating the efficiency of the organization based solely on delays grossly oversimplifies the complexity presented by this public entity.

    As a footnote, private national passenger railway failed, resulting in the nationalization of passenger service and the eventual creation of Amtrak. Passenger traffic is the least profitable (when compared with say, coal or intermodal traffic) yet requires the highest amount of priority (placing the profitable commodities on the siding). To simply say “privatization of rail is an administrative solution” is to ignore a half-century of history demonstrating the failure of passenger rail as a feasible private solution.

    TPL

  6. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Just noticed the 11:11 post by JB (took a bit to write before posting). Didn’t mean to beat a dead horse. TPL

  7. Ray Hyde Avatar
    Ray Hyde

    To simply say “privatization of rail is an administrative solution” is to ignore a half-century of history demonstrating the failure of passenger rail as a feasible private solution.

    True enough, but not all rail is necessarily a failure. There are routes where it makes sense, principally in New York. Let’s not throw out the baby with the bathwater.

    Neither…….will work if there is not a balance between the travel demand generated by the human settlement pattern and the capacity of the systems created to provide access and mobility.

    What we really need to ask is why are these people traveling in the first place? What can we do to avoid the need for travel, and among those options, which are the least expensive, least disruptive, and most desired? EMR and I agree about balance and disagree, primarily, on how to achieve it.

    It also does not matter how much money is thrown at congestion, it just grows worse until that same balance is achieved. EMR

    People need to think of transportation facilities as networks, which are only as good as their capacity at peak demand. TMT

    If everyone is trying to go to the same place at the same time, you will have congestion (no matter how much money you spend). I’d suggest that measuring trasit performance only by the ability to handle peak demand is economically short sighted. We have to consider both the ability to handle peak demand and the excess capacity that too much peak load capacity costs, regardless of mode. It is equally malapropros to suggest that we spend no more money just because congestion will still result.

    If we are all saying the same thing, why can’t we agree?

    Preston: I forgot about the heat restrictions. It is a real drag to be trundling along on the “express train” at 20 mph. Fuy how you put bad experiences out o your mind.

  8. Ray Hyde Avatar
    Ray Hyde

    Jim:

    Don’t give up too easily. Just because VRE has other problems doesn’t mean that part of the issue isn’t related to control or form of management.

  9. Chris Brancato Avatar
    Chris Brancato

    Flying car? Anyone? Bueller?

  10. E M Risse Avatar
    E M Risse

    Chris:

    Flying Car?

    That is a dead end too.

    See “The Skycar Myth” 15 Nov 2004 at db4.dev.baconsrebellion.com

    Sorry, functional human settlement pattern is the only way to achieve mobility and access.

    EMR

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