Bacon's Rebellion

Perspective

—

by

sherlockj
in


by James C. Sherlock

People go where they feel welcome.

Texas is now one of only two U.S. states with a population of 30 million or more.

The Census Bureau reported today that from 2000 to 2022, Texas gained 9,085,073 residents, more than the entire population of Virginia.

From 2000 to 2022, the population of 11 of Texas’s 254 counties more than doubled, according to July 1, 2022 population estimates released today.

Those new nine million people have not yet been counted for redistricting of the U.S. House of Representatives. But it is coming as a result of the 2030 census.

Some things are, indeed, relative.

The bulge in Texas growth in 2005-2006 includes Katrina migrants from Louisiana and Mississippi. The COVID/social unrest uptick we all know about.

Updated Mar 31 at 12:15 with graphic of population change in U.S. and Texas 2000-2022.

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69 responses to “Perspective”

  1. Monica Wright Avatar
    Monica Wright

    We conducted a census two years ago per the Constitution. The census occurs every 10 years like clockwork. Arguably, the residents of TX were undercounted b/c many undocumented individuals were afraid to respond to the census. In any case, new residents/births have been counted and have been included in redistricting decisions.

  2. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
    energyNOW_Fan

    It does not seem that many years ago, Texas was planning a massive number of new coal-fired power plants. I am glad that did not happen as planned.

    1. LarrytheG Avatar
      LarrytheG

      Here’s what happened to coal in Texas:

      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d791cf3043b79703a873d817f681fd4190d63b71e7e6e73fae82cf82f42e2ae5.jpg

      https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/04/us-wind-electricity-generation-renewable-energy/

      1. Teddy007 Avatar
        Teddy007

        If Texas was smart, it would be positioning itself as the home to green manufactuirng due to having more wind and solar.

        1. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
          energyNOW_Fan

          Texas is smart….no ultra-expensive off-shore wind for TX unless costs come down.

          1. Teddy007 Avatar
            Teddy007

            but rural west texas wind farms along with solar farms would create jobs in rural areas without needing water.

          2. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            I don’t think solar farms require much in the way of maintenance once installed, so I can’t imagine they create much in the way of jobs either.

          3. Teddy007 Avatar
            Teddy007

            If the wind and solar farms are used to power green factories or other green facilities, then they do create jobs rather than just shipping all of the energy to the Dallas/Fort Worth metro area to support housing and real estate development.

          4. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            I thought the idea was to create jobs in rural areas without needing water?

          5. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
            energyNOW_Fan

            On-shore wind is cost-effective, no problem.

      2. energyNOW_Fan Avatar
        energyNOW_Fan

        Texas is smart, they are NOT planning ultra-expensive Off-Shore wind, until the costs come down. Virginia on the other hand wants to be King of the highest possible cost electric: off shore wind and nukes (re: Gov’s new energy “all-of-the-above” energy plan which someone here should write an article- Steve’s to do list ?).

      3. DJRippert Avatar
        DJRippert

        Wow. A conservative state leads the pack on green energy. Kind of pierces the generic logic of the left, no?

        1. Stephen Haner Avatar
          Stephen Haner

          Well, Texas being full of hot air is not exactly news, so why not put the turbines there? I can make the wisecrack, being a Texas native. 🙂

          1. Nancy Naive Avatar
            Nancy Naive

            I’m sorry to hear that. Have you taken anything for it?

          2. Lefty665 Avatar
            Lefty665

            exfiltration?

  3. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
    James Wyatt Whitehead

    The founder of Texas was Wythe County Virginia native, Stephen Austin. The first President of the Republic of Texas, Sam Houston, was a native Virginian from Rockbridge County. They moved, started something big, and millions have followed. Virginia is truly the mother state of our great nation.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e054780bafc116e383768dac697687980e0821613bd1a8efba2013b7304fe3b2.jpg

    1. DJRippert Avatar
      DJRippert

      The mother that hasn’t been pregnant in 175 years.

      1. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
        James Wyatt Whitehead

        Virginia will give birth to the next colony. Mars. We have Wallops Island. Lengthy pregnancy.
        https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c3469573df9a11c97bb2a85bbc775c1ff3d9f852c7b1e18180a1271e7a794cdf.jpg

  4. Monica Wright Avatar
    Monica Wright

    We conducted a census three years ago per the Constitution. The census occurs every 10 years like clockwork. Arguably, the residents of TX were undercounted b/c many undocumented individuals were afraid to respond to the census. The major population increases occurred in browning counties that were gerrymandered into R districts to dilute their vote strength. In any case, new residents/births have been counted and have been included in redistricting decisions. There’s nothing relative about it.

    https://www.texastribune.org/2021/12/08/texas-redistricting-demographics-elections/

    https://www.texastribune.org/2021/09/24/texas-congressional-redistricting/

    https://www.texasstandard.org/stories/most-of-texas-population-growth-comes-from-communities-of-color-but-theres-no-new-larinx-majority-congressional-district/

    Does the change these new residents provide reflect your electoral/policy preferences? because it certainly doesn’t reflect theirs…intentionally.

    1. James C. Sherlock Avatar
      James C. Sherlock

      What part of arriving after the 2000 census is not clear? I made no comment on politics. You did.

      1. Not Today Avatar
        Not Today

        Did you mean to say the 2020 census? We’ve had two census counts since 2000.

      2. Not Today Avatar
        Not Today

        Did you mean to say the 2020 census? We’ve had two census counts since 2000.

  5. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    Or, they simply ran out of money before reaching Oklahoma, New Mexico, ….

  6. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    to be clear:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c68622e8f5a20536c1952595068b279b6bbb2480ab7efb79db53b9eba6bce1db.jpg

    1. Eric the half a troll Avatar
      Eric the half a troll

      “And Hispanic Texans are becoming more and more Republican and conservative.”

      Gratuitous insults aside, those chickens have certainly not hatched.

      “Much attention has been given to Hispanic voters in South Texas, where the GOP is poised for history-making breakthroughs. But less than a third of Texas’ Hispanic voters live in South Texas or in border counties. Nearly half of Hispanic Texans live in the left-leaning metros of Austin, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston and San Antonio, where polling shows those Latino voters still overwhelmingly back Democrats.”

      Suburbia continues to be the GOP’s greatest challenge.

      1. DJRippert Avatar
        DJRippert

        See: Monica De La Cruz. Or, Ted Cruz, for that matter.

        https://delacruz.house.gov/about/

      2. DJRippert Avatar
        DJRippert

        The trend is the Republicans friend.

        1. Teddy007 Avatar
          Teddy007

          Not really. The idea that the Republican candidate in 2028 will get more than 52% of the vote is laughable.

    2. Teddy007 Avatar
      Teddy007

      Not really. Look up the voting results or Harris or Bexar counties.

      1. DJRippert Avatar
        DJRippert

        Look at the state-wide trends.

        1. Teddy007 Avatar
          Teddy007

          I have. How many majority Hispanic counties are voting for the Republicans? Very few and in those counties, whites vote at 80% levels or more for Republicans. Trump won Texas in 202 with 52% of the vote. Yet, the U.S. House delegation from TExas is 24 Republicans and 14 Democrats. A sure sign of gerrymandering. Just look at how Texas-2 was drawn so that Dan Crewnshaw could avoid Hispanic and black voters.

          1. Randy Huffman Avatar
            Randy Huffman

            So Trump got 52% of vote, but around 63% of House seats are R, based on your numbers above.

            For the record, Biden got 63% of the vote in California, yet of 53 House seats, D has 42, or 79%. Based on percentages only, this is even a more sure sign of gerrymandering, do you agree?

            https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/state/california

          2. Teddy007 Avatar
            Teddy007

            One of the issues with gerrymandering is that a blind person can draw a district that is 70% Democratic. Yet, it is almost impossible to draw a district that is 70% Republican because there will always be minorities, a college town, or something else that creates an area that votes for Democrats is large numbers.

          3. Lefty665 Avatar
            Lefty665

            The 5th Congressional District here in Virginia went about 60% Repub in ’22. Not 70% but a pretty square district, set by the court and not obviously gerrymandered. It does include Charlottesville and UVa. That probably keeps it from hitting 70% Repub.
            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia%27s_5th_congressional_district

            Hanover County typically votes 2/3-3/4 Repub although it is not a single congressional district. The GA districts in Hanover mostly resemble the overall county vote except for the college town of Ashland.

            FWIW the Repubs in Hanover figure that when they hit 70% of the vote that Repubs everywhere are having a good cycle. That generally seems to play out as an indicator.

          4. Teddy007 Avatar
            Teddy007

            Virginia 5 is an R+7 district Virginia 8th district is a D+27 district. A blind man can draw the 8th district to pact Democrats in and it would take a lot of gerrymandering to crack those voters. The District of Columbia voted over 90% for Biden. To find a 90% Trump county in the U.S., one has to go to a very rural district in a place like Texas that has less than 2k population. Democrats are easier to gerrymander than Republicans. And if one draws tight, compact district, there will be fewer Democrats. And to create more competitive districts, then more gerrymandering is required to crack the very blue counties in urban areas.

          5. DJRippert Avatar
            DJRippert

            Trends, not snapshots.

          6. Teddy007 Avatar
            Teddy007

            The trend for Texas is that the Republicans cannot really increase their percentage of the white vote and that portion of th epopulation is shrinking. In addition, as the Hispanic population grows, getting an increased percentage while still losing by a large margin does not help.

  7. DJRippert Avatar
    DJRippert

    You should grow up. A look at successful states vs unsuccessful states is a very relevant topic. Saying adolescent things like, “You should move” just proves that your opinions are irrelevant.

    1. Nathan Avatar
      Nathan

      Liberals need to explain this away, or try.

      How to Understand the Well-Being Gap between Liberals and Conservatives

      https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2023/03/how-to-understand-the-well-being-gap-between-liberals-and-conservatives/

  8. Teddy007 Avatar
    Teddy007

    In the Texas public schools, non-Hispanic whites make up 26% of the students. The population growth in Texas is due to Hispanic fertility and immigration more than angry whites moving out of blue states to Texas.

    1. James C. Sherlock Avatar
      James C. Sherlock

      I made no contention about the source of the growth.

      Yours is wrong.

      It is of course demographically impossible that the population grew from 21 million to 30 million in twenty two years because of Hispanic birthrate.

      The “unauthorized population” of Texas is estimated at 1,739,000. Virginia’s is 251,000. https://www.migrationpolicy.org/programs/us-immigration-policy-program-data-hub/unauthorized-immigrant-population-profiles

      What is your next guess?

      1. Teddy007 Avatar
        Teddy007

        The growth is over 22 years.

        “The Census Bureau reported today that from 2000 to 2022, Texas gained 9,085,073 residents, more than the entire population of Virginia.”

        And it is hard to claim that the non-Hispanic white population is growing while it is a smaller portion of those o-18.

        1. James C. Sherlock Avatar
          James C. Sherlock

          Corrected typo.

          Can a 45% increase in population in 22 years be accounted for in birthrate?

          1. Teddy007 Avatar
            Teddy007

            Birthrate, legal and illegal immigraiton, and internal migration. However, thinking that all of the internal migration are white people is a mistake. In addition, how many of the internal migrants are coming from Oklahoma. LA, Arkansas, or New Mexico.

  9. how_it_works Avatar
    how_it_works

    Because I was neither born in Virginia, nor do I have more than a couple of distant ancestors who were born here, nor did I move here for a job, I feel no need to look at Virginia through a pair of rose-colored glasses.

    1. DJRippert Avatar
      DJRippert

      I was reared in Virginia, I have many family members born here, including my children. I have lived here for the last 50 of my 62 years (my Dad was a naval officer and we moved quite a bit when I was younger).

      I don’t look at Virginia through rose colored glasses either. In fact, I see a lot of issues in Virginia. The one-term governor, unlimited political contributions, no term limits for GA members, etc.

      There are actually two Virginias – the “plantation elite” who view the “Virginia Way” and other hallucinations through rose colored glasses and the rest of Virginia. In my opinion, the “plantation elite” is centered in the Greater Richmond area. This blog has a disproportionate percentage of “plantation elites” and does not represent the realities of modern Virginia.

      1. Matt Adams Avatar
        Matt Adams

        I think you’re discounting the Genteel Loudoun County folks.

        1. DJRippert Avatar
          DJRippert

          Ha ha. Western Loudoun for sure.

        2. how_it_works Avatar
          how_it_works

          Fauquier County seems to have a bit of that, too.

          1. Matt Adams Avatar
            Matt Adams

            From my experience it’s all NOVA transplants, so they have a lot in common with DJ’s plantation elite.

          2. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            Oh yes, the “I got mine, now stop all new development NOW!” people…

      2. how_it_works Avatar
        how_it_works

        You’ve got the “plantation elite”, but even the average joe from RoVA seems to think that all of the state’s problems (t0 the degree that they acknowledge any) are caused by all those damned Yankees in NoVA.

  10. Ronnie Chappell Avatar
    Ronnie Chappell

    I lived in the Houston area for 8 years. Housing was affordable, the schools in our area were excellent, the city had a gay, fiscally conservative mayor who happened to be a democrat. The first slide in the powerpoint presentation used by the Houston Texans to woo free agents said: No State Income Tax. I’ll never forget the day a new employee I had recently hired out of NY City walked into my office with his first pay check and exclaimed: I can’t believe how much of this I get to keep!”

  11. James C. Sherlock Avatar
    James C. Sherlock

    I added a graphic at the end which may help settle some disputes. Or not.

    The bulge in Texas growth in 2005-2006 was largely Katrina migrants from Louisiana and Mississippi. The COVID/social unrest uptick we know about.

    1. Lefty665 Avatar
      Lefty665

      “The Census Bureau reported today that from 2000 to 2022, Texas gained 9,085,073 residents, more than the entire population of Virginia…. Those new nine million people have not yet been counted for redistricting of the U.S. House of Representatives. But it is coming as a result of the 2030 census.””

      You still have not acknowledged your absolutely incorrect assertion. The majority of those 9 million people have been counted and are in the Texas redistricting that was adjusted following the 2010 and 2020 censuses.

      C’mon Jim, pay attention. You can do better.

    2. Lefty665 Avatar
      Lefty665

      “The Census Bureau reported today that from 2000 to 2022, Texas gained 9,085,073 residents, more than the entire population of Virginia…. Those new nine million people have not yet been counted for redistricting of the U.S. House of Representatives. But it is coming as a result of the 2030 census.””

      You still have not acknowledged your absolutely incorrect assertion. The majority of those 9 million people have been counted and are in the Texas redistricting that was adjusted following the 2010 and 2020 censuses.

      Your new graph shows a change in Texas population of 1.1% in 2021 and 1.6% in 2022. That is about 1M people total since the 2020 census that are not reflected in the Texas Congressional Districts, not the 9M you cite.

      To help you understand, 9M is bigger than 1M, and 2000-2022 encompasses 2 (two) decennial censuses that count population change and adjust Congressional representation accordingly from 32 seats in 2000 to 38 seats today.

      C’mon Jim, pay attention. You can do better.

  12. Eric the half a troll Avatar
    Eric the half a troll

    “People go where they feel welcome.”

    Or where real estate is cheaper…

    Some details about where the population growth in Texas is centered… also what parts are seeing population decline. Looks like Virginia to me…

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e0ece3555f6e83494fbd60be83eaab347c8c5f588c53b7ed16fef44fd2e7a88f.jpg

    1. James C. Sherlock Avatar
      James C. Sherlock

      Virginia population grew 1.6 million in those same twenty years.

      1. Eric the half a troll Avatar
        Eric the half a troll

        Still seeing growth in suburbia and declines in rural areas just like Texas. Suspect you will ultimately be seeing the same sort of demographic shifts we have seen in VA in TX come 2030.

        1. DJRippert Avatar
          DJRippert

          Your point on real estate costs is legitimate. However, your point on suburbia is less clear to me. My assumption is that Glenn Youngkin won in Virginia not because there was movement from suburban to rural but because suburbanites rejected the extreme policies of McAuliffe and the Dems. The Democratic Party is continuing its leftward shift which is turning off a more and more suburban voters. Defunding the police is one example. Soft on crime and prosecution is another. Biden’s so-far terrible tenure is another. On the other hand, abortion is a huge problem for the Republicans. The question is one of balance. Neither party wins all the issues. Which party wins more decides how the independents vote and the independents decide elections.

      2. William Chambliss Avatar
        William Chambliss

        Texas is 7 times as large in area as Virginia. Virginia’s population grew by 1.6 million from 2000-2022. Multiply that number by 7 and it comes to 11.2 million, doesn’t it? Did Va’s population density exceed Texas’ over that period?

  13. Lefty665 Avatar
    Lefty665

    “The Census Bureau reported today that from 2000 to 2022, Texas gained 9,085,073 residents, more than the entire population of Virginia…. Those new nine million people have not yet been counted for
    redistricting of the U.S. House of Representatives. But it is coming as a result of the 2030 census.”

    Not to be contentious, but according to the Constitution the United States is required to conduct a census every 10 years, and has done so. There have been two (2) censuses since 2000. Could it be that a few of those 9,085,073 new residents arrived during the 20 years covered by those censuses and are reflected in current Congressional districts?

    I know the border has been porous under Biden, and that California has been losing residents (better to Texas than Virginia), but over 9 million in Texas in the last 2 years seems a little odd.

    In 2001 Texas had 32 seats in Congress. In 2011 that increased to 36 seats, Today it is 38 seats. That 6 seat increase since 2000 means the majority of the 9 million population increase has been accounted for and is currently represented in Congress. It also shows that, relative to the rest of the country, the growth of the population in Texas between 2000 and 2010 was twice as much as between 2010 and 2020.

  14. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    Here’s the big question. Are people fleeing California and Virginia and other states to go to Texas?

    Or are hispanics and other immigrants flooding Texas?

    1. how_it_works Avatar
      how_it_works

      Most people seem to flee Virginia for North Carolina, from what I’ve seen.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        might depend on what you know or not, perception?

        Certainly not better for retirees:

        https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/986c6aa49b7552c9b8437da9f14bbbad4d66ce617112eba3e3a96d4e3ac5bb76.jpg

        https://www.ezhomesearch.com/blog/north-carolina-vs-virginia-which-is-the-better-state/#:~:text=Taxes%20for%20Retirees&text=Virginia%20is%20more%20tax%2Dfriendly,taxes%20on%20Social%20Security%20income.

        1. how_it_works Avatar
          how_it_works

          Maybe not if the retiree has a new vehicle. Car tax, car tax, Virginia car tax.

          While some counties and cities in Virginia have very low property taxes rates, that isn’t true of all.

        2. how_it_works Avatar
          how_it_works

          Maybe not if the retiree has a new vehicle. Car tax, car tax, Virginia car tax.

          While some counties and cities in Virginia have very low property taxes rates, that isn’t true of all.

          1. LarrytheG Avatar
            LarrytheG

            Many give property tax relief though, and the car tax is low if you don’t buy new cars.

            Beyond that , Virginia does not tax social security, gives another $12,000 deduction for over 65 and doubled their standard deduction.

            And allows another 10K deduction for military, including retirees.

            https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/15af0477bcf8a7740ab43c6034d6dd8f225273d9e287104ce22acf331d1810d3.jpg

            https://smartasset.com/retirement/retirement-taxes

          2. how_it_works Avatar
            how_it_works

            One thing a retiree ought to consider is the transportation infrastructure.

            Most areas of Virginia have poor public transportation, and windy, curvy roads with no streetlighting.

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