Bacon's Rebellion

  • Electronic Health Records Coming to a Doctor Near You

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    James A. Bacon

    The Kaine administration has been doing some useful things behind the scenes, but because of my monomaniacal fixation on transportation, land use, energy and the environment, I have not had time to highlight the more positive initiatives. With this post, I hope to make up for that deficit to some small degree.

    One of Gov. Timothy M. Kaine’s priorities has been to increase the efficiency of Virginia’s health care system by encouraging physicians and hospitals to adopt electronic health records. Until this week, none of these endeavors had resulted in anything terribly newsworthy. But on June 12, U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Michael Leavitt visited Richmond to announce Virginia’s participation in a Medicare initiative to promote the use of certified electronic health records (EHRs).


    Leavitt thanked Kaine, legislators, members of his cabinet, and Michael Mathews (CEO of MedVirginia), and others for developing a winning application. The project, one of 12 in the country, will provide financial incentives to as many as 100 primary care physician practices in Virginia to use certified EHRs.


    If there’s anything close to a silver bullet for out-of-control health care expenditures, it’s probably EHRs. Let me rephrase that. There are no silver bullets. But of all the remedies discussed, getting physicians, hospitals and other health care providers to adopt electronic records would do more than any other single thing anyone can do to cut costs and improve patient outcomes.


    The U.S. health care industry has been notoriously slow to adopt electronic records. A majority of physicians still make hand-written notes, which are sometimes illegible and lead to transcription errors. Paper records also are far more difficult to share, resulting in redundant and unnecessary procedures when a patient moves to a new setting. Although systems with computerized provider order entry have existed for more than 30 years, fewer than 10 percent of hospitals as of 2006 have a fully integrated system, according to Wikipedia.

    According to one 2004 estimate, one in seven hospitalizations occurred when medical records were not available. Additionally, one in five lab tests were repeated because results were not available at the point of care. “The evidence is too compelling and the stakes are too high to maintain [the] status quo,” said Mathews, the MedVirginia CEO.

    MedVirginia, Virginia’s Regional Health Information Organization, is the logical group to take the lead in the Medicare initiative. Since its inception in 2001, the organization’s vision has been to create “the most electronically connected medical community in the United States.” In 2005, MedVirginia developed the capability to collect patients’ hospital, lab and pharmacy data and organize it into one single electronic chart. The key now is to get all players to use electronic records.

    Medicare will begin working with Virginia in the summer of 2009 to build partnerships and develop strategies to recruit Virginia physicians into the program. It’s a shame we have to wait a full year just to start work on this important project. More.

  • Left and Right Converge on Basic Economics

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    James A. Bacon

    Mr. Peter Galuszka took one for the team when he bought, read and reported on Thomas Sowell’s “Basic Economics.” I was unable to respond to his post in a timely fashion, so I’m posting here to show where our political perspectives from the Right and the Left blend on the basics of basic economics. Because, I theorize, we are both children of the Enlightenment and agree that rational empiricism is the foundation of good science.

    Likewise, we might posit, jointly if I may presume so, that good governance for policy issues that involve issues with scientifically-based alternatives should rack and stack alternatives with clear links to rational empiricism. Analysis. Good analysis.

    Here are my comments on Mr. Galuszka’s (PG) findings.

    I would grade him with an A-. And I was a tough grader at the Department of Social Sciences, USMA. The minus comes from his last comment which is addressed at the end of this list.

    I, too, used Paul Samuelson’s text on econ as an undergrad and went took economics at Keynesian grad schools.

    But, what jumped out at me in Herman K. Bator’s bedsheet model of the macroeconomy was how little government spending did and how much productivity did. Nothing beat improvements in productivity as a single variable change in the olde GNP.

    Since then I read Milton Friedman on the role of capital growth. But, even in grad school I got the idea that the way to cut the American pie for the American People better is, first, to grow the pie. Bigger slices for all are possible.

    I agree with PG that unions are important. Unions and shareholders are the only checks and balances on corporate bad behavior. When the legislatures try to fix the corporate barn doors after the horses have run, they pretty much muck it all up for everyone – creating a new set of winners and losers in the business/government mixed economy.

    I argue that unions and shareholders have vital roles in the future to provide the moral suasion needed on organizations run by sinful men (as we all are) and to protect the employees. My political issue with unions is ideological – and not pertinent here.

    I agree that CEO compensation is out of whack. But, it isn’t an issue for government. It’s an issue for the unions, shareholders and the public marketplace of ideas.

    The impacts of free trade are tough to live with. But, economic risk has always been brutal. The long range study I led (back in 90-92 for the period 2005-2015) pointed to the biggest single driver of change would be – domestically and internationally – political understandings (reactions) to economic changes. Whole regions can lose industries in no time. But, there are counters that can mitigate such events – to a degree – like Commonwealth Trust Accounts and SS that are individually owned. Producing more capital can offset the loss of an industry. New industries will be created.

    I don’t see the problem with foreign corporations given our laws and shareholders – what is different now that is so scary?

    My only complaint with PG’s findings is his comment about not seeing the application specifically for Virginia.

    We need a Macro-Economic model of the Commonwealth. The GA could put together a consortium of our universities for a couple of million and get a first class model for tax policies. And the economic effects of transportation and land policies, as well as environmental policies.

    We may still break Right and Left on issues, but where possible, lets do so from the same common economic analysis.

  • Wagner Plays the Offshore Drilling Wildcard

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    James A. Bacon

    So far, the special General Assembly session on transportation has been shaping up as a flounderfest: no one agreeing on anything, everyone just flopping around. But Sen. Frank Wagner, R-Virginia Beach, has thrown a wild card into the game.

    In a news conference today, Wagner linked offshore drilling for natural gas with Virginia transportation. He called for Gov. Timothy M. Kaine to use his “considerable influence in national Democratic politics” to urge his fellow party members to lift the federal ban on off-shore drilling. And he promised to introduce legislation next week that would devote much of the state royalties from such drilling to transportation, Chesapeake Bay clean up and energy-related uses.

    Wagner, who reminds readers in his press release that he was the chief patron of the bill calling for the Virginia Energy Plan, would establish the Offshore Energy Revenue Fund. Proceeds would be distributed as follows:

    40% to the Transportation Trust Fund
    40% for Chesapeake Bay cleanup efforts
    10% to the Renewable Electricity Production Grant Fund
    10% to the Virginia Coastal Energy Research Consortium

    Now, some might accuse Wagner of cheap political grandstanding. After all, what can Gov. Kaine really do to influence the federal ban on offshire drilling? Further, what are the chances that a Democratic Congress, which looks forward to aligning itself within half a year with a Democratic president, will make a move that would anger its environmentalist base? Pretty low, I’d say.

    Moreover, there is absolutely no logical nexus between offshore drilling and transportation. I can see a tangential connection to the Chesapeake Bay: If people are worried about the environmental impact of drilling, it sorta makes sense to dedicate some of the royalties to environmental clean-up. Drilling offshore would take place in the water… The Chesapeake Bay has lots of water… What more could you ask for?

    Other than the fact that the Business As Usual interests are desperate for a new source of revenues to perpetuate Virginia’s failed transportation model, however, why should the revenues be dedicated to transportation as opposed to any other need? None that I can think of.

    But the gambit is sure to generate a lot of headlines and absorb a lot of discussion. A special session that was shaping up as snooza-palooza just might be fun to follow after all.

  • Deep Green in Blacksburg

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    James A. Bacon

    Yesterday I blogged about the need to take a “deep green” approach to energy conservation. It’s one thing to snap up low-hanging fruit, but Virginia needs to enact fundamental institutional changes — to transportation and land use especially — if we are to achieve meaningful reductions in energy consumption. As it happened, at least three speakers at the Governor’s Commission on Climate Change meeting in Blacksburg yesterday brushed up against those topics.

    I wasn’t there, so I don’t know what exactly what they said. But the Commission has posted PDFs of their presentations online, and you can get a flavor of what they had to say.

    Providing Transportation Choices to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Petra Mollet, American Public Transportation Association

    Urban Development and Climate Change, John V. Thomas, Ph.D., Development Community and Environment Division, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

    Climate Change and Development Patterns, Eric J. Walberg, Principal Planner, Hampton Roads Planning District Commission

  • HEADLINES, HEADLINES

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    James A. Bacon

    There has been a lot of loose talk on this Blog about Fundamental Transformation not being an urgent need, especially in the Commonwealth of Virgina.

    Our friends the Tiger Riders may have not been reading the headlines.

    Last Saturday the Business section of WaPo was headlined by: “Flying Is Going to Get Even Less Fun.” You may recall our column 21 April column “The End of Flight as We Knew It.”

    Early this week AOL Money featured an analysis of recent stock trends and suggested 17 large Enterprises that, based on stock market performance, may not be with us for long. Number one on the list and four of the top 5 were airline Enterprises – American, United, Northwest and Delta. Five of the top 8 were airline Enterprises.

    Add the cost of aircraft impact on the upper atmosphere to the price of a ticket and the US of A will be back to one flag carrier, airport overcapacity and very few who can afford to travel. Deregulation and cheap fuel sure did improve air travel.

    Think of all those Households (formerly known as “families”) who believed it was fine to disaggregate and scatter across the globe because they could always fly “home” for the holidays and when there was an emergency…

    On the AOL list were three were major financial institutions and the two biggest Autonomobile manufactures – Chrysler already having been towed away after a fire sale. They also believed their own ads and the chant that demand for Large, Private Vehicles was inelastic.

    On 13 June WaPo had a headline “Medical Fraud a Growing Problem” and in the same issue the Business section headlined “The Economy’s Steady Pulse: Health-Care Sector Is Poised to Keep Growing, But so Are Its Costs.”

    Not likely any Tiger Riders are going to try to track down fraud or cut costs if medical services is the only sector of the economy – other that flood damage repair and ad revenue from the Internet – that are expanding. The health and welfare of other nation-states is better with a different system but this one makes some more profit in the short term.

    On Monday the 16th WaPo had a full page ad by HybridTechnologies touting the value of lithium battery powered vehicles. The ad was not there to sell cars, it was selling stock in a company that will sell the cars. Small, efficient vehicles are good, but are not a good investment without fundamental change in settlement patterns. See “Aptera and the Tiger Riders.”

    On the 17th one of the above-the-fold front page stories was headlined “McCain Seeks to End Offshore Drilling Ban.” WaPo commentators had a field day with the flip-flop from prior positions but the real story was that the flip side of the jump page was that overexposed crying baby ad paid for by ‘The people of America’s Oil and Natural Gas Industry’ that asks “who really pays when congress taxes oil companies?” The children of well paid energy CEOs?

    A society that has seven parking places for every Autonomobile and five bed places for every body needs to reconsider where the current trajectory is taking everyone, including those at the top of the Ziggurat.

    Perhaps citizenS need to come up with a new metric for well being.

    It is enough to make one want to add some paragraphs to THE ESTATES MATRIX.

    EMR

  • “Low Hanging Fruit” vs. “Deep Green”

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    James A. Bacon

    The Governor’s task force on climate change is meeting in Blacksburg today. One of the voices that will not be heard is that of Patrick Michaels, former state climatologist and one of the nation’s leading Global Warming skeptics. Despite his extensive knowledge on climate change issues, Michaels was conspicuously not asked to serve on the commission. That’s no surprise, of course, given the fact that the commission was predicated on the key assumption, which Michaels questions, that human-caused increases in carbon dioxide will cause calamitously higher temperatures and sea levels. Under the circumstances, inviting Michaels to participate arguably would not lead to a productive exchange of ideas.

    To my knowledge, Michaels has never commented on Virginia’s climate change task force… until now. In a post on the World Climate Report blog either Michaels or one of his co-bloggers takes on the subject of “The Virginia Climate Change Commission and the Mirage of Low Hanging Fruit.” (Authorship of the blog post is not attributed to any one of the blog’s three contributing editors, so it’s not clear who wrote the post. But if the author wasn’t Michaels, it seems likely that he shares the author’s views.)

    Rather than revisit the familiar global-warming controversies, the author focuses on the commission’s stated goal of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 30 percent by the year 2025 in order to restore emissions to 2000 levels. The goal, contends the author, who apparently has attended one or more of the commission hearings, will be harder than it looks.

    The Commission [is] seeking potential ways to meet this goal through conservation, energy efficiency improvements, encouragement of renewable energies, etc. Oftentimes the discussion turned to identifying the “low hanging fruit” that was available to achieve the agreed upon goal — that is finding the easiest and most straightforward way of attempting to reduce emissions.

    But there is no low-hanging fruit, the author contends. Obvious changes are already spoken for. Recommending changes that business and government are likely to make even in the absence of any action by the commission will amount to double counting and won’t get Virginia any closer to the commission’s goals. The argument is a bit arcane but worthy of consideration. Here’s the logic:

    Virginia’s gross state product has been growing over the last 10 years at an average rate of about 3.5 percent yearly (2000 constant dollars). Virginia’s energy usage as well as its CO2 emissions have grown at a slower rate: slightly more than two percent yearly. In other words, Virginia’s economy is getting more energy efficient per unit of economic output.

    Forecasts of Virginia’s economic output, energy consumption and CO2 emissions through 2025 take that improving energy efficiency into account. According to the “Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goal Update,” the Kaine administration is already assuming “continuing improvement in energy efficiency/energy intensity” for its “Business As Usual” energy scenario.

    “Virginians have found ways to produce more per unit energy usage year-over-year through innovation and hard work,” writes the World Climate Report author. Motivated by higher energy prices, Virginians are projected to increase energy efficiency by 25 percent without any action on the part of the commission. The commission needs to find an extra 30 percent in CO2 reduction.

    Writes the author:

    What all of this means, is that the Commission cannot suggest things that would otherwise occur in their absence — for as we have seen, these things are implicit in the business-as-usual extrapolations. Thus, the Commission cannot recommend actions that are somewhat obvious (i.e. the low hanging fruit) and that are ongoing or will occur on their own in response to higher fuel costs, introduction of new technologies, price saving measures, etc.

    Such actions include a constant push towards improving manufacturing efficiencies, the trend towards cars with higher gas mileage, the gradual switchover to compact florescent light bulbs, and any other initiatives that are already on the books or would otherwise be thought up. … Again, business-as-usual implies innovation.

    Bacon’s bottom line: I concur with this appraisal. Now, to follow the World Climate Report author’s logic to its logical conclusion: Achieving the Commission’s goals will require Fundamental Change to Virginia’s institutions. In other words, we need to go “deep green.”

    “Green Lite” — relatively easy-to-implement conservation measures from CFL light bulbs to building-automation systems, from higher gas-mileage vehicles to more efficient industrial processes — is already happening. Implementation of these solutions will be driven by the soaring price of gasoline, coal, natural gas and electricity. Households and businesses are amply motivated to seek them out.

    But there’s a deeper level of energy conservation that’s not so easily achieved because it entails changes not just to individual or corporate behavior but changes to intractably energy-intensive transportation systems and human settlement patterns. Reaching the Kaine administration’s goal of cutting CO2 by 30 percent (on top of the Business-As-Usual reduction of 25 percent) will require more than increasing the average fuel efficiency of Virginia’s automobile fleet by three or four miles per gallon. It will require cutting vehicle miles driven by 20 percent (or some enormous percentage). Likewise, reaching the goal will require more than installing more efficient HVAC systems and stuffing insulation in the cracks of single family dwellings. It may require a 20 percent reduction in the cubic footage of residential, retail, office or industrial space to be heated and cooled.

    While necessary for a prosperous and sustainable society, embracing “deep green” and achieving Fundamental Change will be neither easy nor popular.

    Today is the Climate Change commission’s last day for the presentation of facts and ideas by experts. It will be interesting to see if any of the materials posted online include any discussion of the need for changes that go beyond “Business As Usual” scenarios.

  • UVa Increases Endowment Payout

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    James A. Bacon

    The University of Virginia will tap more of its $3.2 billion endowment to strengthen university programs and help hold the line on tuition increases, reports the Daily Progress. The Board of Visitors voted Friday to increase the payout rate to 5 percent of the fund’s market value on June 30, a move that should generate $16 million more for university academics and UVa Health System patients.

    The board also approved a new formula for determining how much of its endowment is spent each year: After fiscal 2009, the university will increase its endowment spending by the rate of inflation, as long as the resulting payout is within four percent to six percent of the fund’s market value.

    The $2.24 billion operating budget for 2008-2009 provides $1.22 billion for academics, $980 million for the medical center, and $34 million for the College at Wise — a 5.4 spending percent increase. The budget allows for 159 new full-time workers, up from 12,170, a new student data system, more student financial aid, and more.

    Bacon’s bottom line: Good. This move is long overdue. I’ve long criticized UVa, my alma mater, and other public Virginia universities for piling up bigger and bigger endowments for the seemingly sole purpose of claiming, “Mine’s bigger than your’s” — even as they aggressively jacked up tuitions year after year. The increased payout and future indexing for inflation helps ensure that the endowment is used for the purposes of improving the quality of education and keeping tuitions affordable.

    The BoV’s actions are not necessarily the end of the story. Alumni and other stakeholders must continue to scrutinize where the money goes. But Friday’s actions signal that the Board clearly understands that the endowment does not exist for its own sake — it needs to be used.

  • A Virginia Dem on Transportation: One Good Idea

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    James A. Bacon

    Virginia Senator John Miller (D-1SD) will introduce a bill to abolish the Hampton Roads Transportation Authority (HRTA).

    This unelected, unaccountable, unseparated powers Regional Government – ruled un-Constitutional (by unanimous decision of the Virginia Supreme Court) -has already spent $200k.

    Let’s see which Hampton Roads legislators sign up to be co-patrons of this bill – and how many Republicans make it bi-partisan for good governance.

  • Virginia GOP on Transportation: One Good Idea, One Bad

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    James A. Bacon

    As the special transportation session of the General Assembly draws nigh, the House Republican leadership has thrown out some new ideas regarding transportation funding. One of them deserves serious consideration. The other one is dangerous: a potential blank check for the political class.

    Del. G. Glenn Oder, R-Newport News, announced Friday that he had introduced legislation to create a “constitutional lock-box” for the Transportation Trust Fund. This idea, backed by Gov. Timothy M. Kaine early in his administration, would protect dedicated transportation from revenue razzias to fund other programs. Politically, a constitutional lockbox is mandatory to induce voters to support tax increases for transportation construction. Without such a guarantee, only the most naive would trust the politicians to honor a commitment to leave the funds alone.

    Said Oder in a press release: “It is time to put ‘trust’ back into the Transportation Trust Fund. This constitutional amendment provides a guarantee to the citizens of Virginia that money dedicated to transportation will be spent on transportation. To prevent similar diversions and raids, we approved a constitutional amendment to protect funds for education raised through the State Lottery. We should protect transportation dollars as well.”

    Oder’s legislation is backed by the House Republican leadership, including Speaker William J. Howell, R-Stafford. Said Howell: “The people of Virginia have every right to expect that moneys dedicated for transportation will, in fact, go to transportation.”

    Right on!

    While Howell’s logic is impeccable in that instance, he floated a stinker last week when discussing how to address the transportation needs of Hampton Roads. In an interview with the Daily Press, Howell suggested leasing the long-term tolling rights for Hampton Roads bridges and tunnels in return for up-front payments in cash.

    “You can’t raise taxes enough to build all of those things,” Howell said of the region’s list of seven major transportation projects, which includes expanding the Hampton Roads Bridge-Tunnel, reports the Daily Press’ Kimball Payne. “Looking at tolls and concessions is the only way you’re going to solve Hampton Roads’ problems.”

    The problem with the transportation projects favored by the political class of Hampton Roads is they are largely for the benefit of the port and maritime interests, and to some extent development interests. By leasing off bridge and tunnel concessions and hiking tolls to pay for those projects, Howell’s proposal would represent a multibillion-dollar transfer of wealth from the general citizenry to the port/maritime/development sectors of the business community.

    I’m all in favor of finding creative ways to build the new transportation capacity needed to expand the ports — as long as the projects can pay their own way, and as long as private interests shoulder the risk that revenue projections might not materialize. Toll the trucks. Tax the containers. Create Community Development Authorities to develop industrial real estate along the expanded highways and use the proceeds to issue bonds. Privatize the Virginia Port Authority. But don’t tax or toll already overtaxed citizens for something that benefits them only indirectly if at all.

  • Obligatory Ruminations about Human Settlement Patterns in Disney World

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    James A. Bacon

    Before departing on vacation, I promised to share my impressions of what might be gleaned from the Disney World experiment for building functional human settlement patterns in the Rest of the World. I fully acknowledge that the commentary that follows is based upon quick and superficial observation, which may be of limited value. But some interesting points do emerge.

    Utilidors. Disney turned down my request to view the underground complex — a network of corridors that contain utilities and accommodate logistical transportation — that I deemed the most innovative aspect of Disney World and, possibly, the most instructive for design of other communities. Accordingly, most of what I know about the “utilidors” I gleaned from an online article, “Under the Magic Kingdom,” on the HiddenMickeys.org website.

    The 15-foot-high corridors were built at ground level, then covered with soil from excavation of the Seven Seas Lagoon. Disney World was actually built atop this spoil, creating the above-ground level visible to visitors and a below-ground level used by employees. From the website:

    You have never seen a delivery truck at Disney – have you? Magic Kingdom’s first floor has all the access roads for the Cast Members (employees) and service vehicles, the “tunnels” or Utilidors, the AVAC, service rooms, wardrobe and costuming, male and female locker rooms, offices, storage, kitchens, break rooms, two employee cafeterias, including the Fantasyland Dining Room, Kingdom Kutters, a Fire Prevention Center, Studio “D” and many of the support departments for the Magic Kingdom. The Fantasyland Dining Room and restrooms are to the left.

    Underground corridors strike me as a possibly useful adjunct to Claude Lewenz’ concept of pedestrian villages. (See “First, Shoot All the Cars.”) While the pedestrian-only aspects of Lewenz’ village are highly appealing, the difficulty in accommodating delivery trucks and other utilitarian vehicles creates problems that I’m not sure that Lewenz ever resolved satisfactorily. Disney-esque corridors could solve those problems — though, admittedly, at a significant cost.

    Monorail. I did have a chance to ride the monorail, which is showing its age after 27 years. The mass transit system has 12 trains consisting of six cars each, capable of running up to 40 miles per hour. I’m no expert in mass transit, so I apologize in advance if my commentary sounds like Urban Planning 101

    The Disney monorail strikes me as a “niche” system that is appropriate in certain settings, but not a tool capable of providing mobility and access for large populations. The beauty of the monorail, or so it would appear to my uninformed eye, is that the structure takes up relatively little space. The struts upon which the track rests have a small “footprint,” therefore can be retrofitted into an existing urban space, presumably a highway or boulevard, relatively easily.

    The monorail stations need not be large if located inside a building, as the Disney World monorail is in one of the Disney hotels. However, the ramps connecting the monorail to the pedestrian level did consume considerable space — posing an obstacle for retrofitting an already-developed area.

    Multimodal. Where Disney truly excels is in its implementation of multi-modal transportation. Each of the four main theme parks is surrounded by vast acres of parking lots, which function as the resort’s interface with the world. Tens of thousands of visitors arrive by car daily. To transport them quickly and efficiently from the parking lots into the pedestrian-oriented parks, Disney operates an elaborate tram system. To provide access between the theme parks, as well as the various resort hotels and other facilities, Disney runs buses, passenger boats and the aforementioned monorail.

    The key to making the Disney system work is the existence of well-placed multi-modal transportation hubs, where parking-lot trams, passenger boats, monorails, buses and pedestrian walkways all come together and visitors can easily switch from one mode to the other. Once the newcomer has figured out the system — what connects with what — the multimodal system functions reasonably well.

    Where planning for Virginia’s transportation facilities seem deficient, it strikes me, is (a) the paucity of such multi-modal centers, and (b) the failure in imagination to incorporate water-borne craft into the multi-modal system. Unfortunately, I have no idea what it cost to put the Disney system into place, nor how much it costs to operate. I suspect that Disney treats such information as closely guarded competitive intelligence. Therefore, there is no way to know whether implementation of such a system would make sense in real-world urban conditions in Virginia today.

    There you have it, folks, the sum total of what I learned from the Mouse.

    Celebration. P.S. To answer Ed Risse’s question, I did not have a chance to visit Celebration, Disney’s New Urbanist development built nearby. From what I heard from a friend who works for the Disney organization, Celebration is both a success and a failure. The New Urbanist formula was such a commercial success that the prices of property there rose to astronomical levels that priced less affluent households out of the “affordable” housing envisioned for the development. The obvious answer: Build more communities like Celebration, eliminate the scarcity value, and “affordable” housing will stay affordable.

    I found one other observation made by my friend to be noteworthy: Performance of the retail development in Celebration has been disappointing. Turns out, people still like driving long distances to Big Box retail outside the development. Whether the phenomenon of $4-per-gallon changes that predilection remains to be seen.

    (Photo credits: Utilidors, HiddenMickeys.org; monorail, Oren’s Transit Page.)

  • Escape from Orlando

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    James A. Bacon

    Wow, it’s been a crazy week. Let me tell you, Disney World is not for old people — well, it’s not for old people acclimated to an auto-centric society where little walking is required. In Disney World, you do a lot of walking. You also find yourself hurtling along in roller coasters and other devices at high speeds, often experiencing multiple G forces.

    I prefer more contemplative get-aways that give me a chance to read and relax. My wife likes cramming in as many experiences as she possibly can. At Disney World, it wasn’t a contest. My wife won. The Bacon family ran itself ragged 12 hours a day, then collapsed in the hotel room long enough to re-charge batteries and hit the rides again. Fun — but exhausting.

    We’re back in Richmond now, and I’ve plowed through the 1,400 emails in my in-box. (More than half of it was spam; most of the rest was commentary by you, dear readers). Now I’m ready to belly up to the PC and get back to the business of writing about the real world, which is a lot more interesting than the ersatz, Disneyfied world.

    Just a few comments before I plunge ahead.

    First, for the record, I found Epcot and Animal Kingdom to be the most enjoyable parts of Disney World. In particular, I was intrigued by the Epcot greenhouse, where a slow boat ride takes you on a tour past a remarkable array of fruit trees and vegetables grown under hydroponic conditions. I know, I’m such a dweeb. To my fellow dweebs, I highly recommend it. Alas, I missed the “Behind the Seeds” tour for a more in-depth look. But I suspect that greenhouses and hydroponics will play a role in the sustainable, energy-efficient agriculture of the future.

    Second, I want to thank Ed Risse for keeping the blog alive in my absence. Good job, Ed, you certainly managed to keep the pot boiling!

    (Image credit: Gardenvisit.com)

  • Kaine Defends His Record on Transportation/Land Use

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    James A. Bacon

    An interesting sidelight of Gov. Timothy M. Kaine’s press release announcing the Sub-Cabinet on Community Investment is a defense of his track record on transportation and land use issues. I have broken out that passage from my previous post in order to give it more emphasis here.

    Over the last two years, the press release stated, Kaine has worked with the General Assembly to improve coordination between land use and transportation planning, including:

    • A standardized process for traffic impact analyses for new developments
    • Stricter connectivity standards for subdivision streets
    • Improved traffic flow through access management standards
    • Designation of urban development areas
    • Expanded ability to issue road impact fees
    • Local administration of construction projects

    Some of these initiatives originated from Kaine’s policy shop, and some of them from the Republicans. Regardless of whose ideas they originally were, Kaine embraced them at some point and was instrumental in passing them into law.

    I’ve been pretty tough on Kaine for his tax proposals to boost transportation funding and falling short on campaign promises. But the fact remains, he has done more to elevate the critical link between transportation and land use than any governor in Virginia history.

  • APTERA AND THE TIGER RIDERS

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    James A. Bacon

    We saw Jim Bacon’s 4 June post on the Aptera concept car (“300 MPG. This could be the Coolest Car Ever?”) just before we left on a 22 mile chained trip to accomplish seven errands that could not be done here in Greater Warrenton Fauquier. (For those who came in late, since 1973 we have primarily worked very near where we lived and have tried to minimize our travel except where there is no alternative.)

    We stated our view of Aptera in a comment when the vehicle was called to our attention via a comment following the 2 June post “Tremble, Mortals, the Rebellion is Unleashed.”

    Tiny cars are old, old news. Folks have been designing little vehicles that go for miles with not much fuel for decades.

    Mini cars can be part of a solution to Access and Mobility. We helped design Planned New Communities around mini-vehicles over three decades ago. They can work well in some existing urban environments but it is not a slam dunk. It takes a design / redesign of the settlement pattern and the transport infrastructure at the Alpha Village and Alpha Community scale as well as the design of the vehicle to achieve a real alternative to Large, Private Vehicles in most environments.

    Jim was so excited about the Aptera in his 4 June post that the little three wheeler and its ilk were on our mind as we carried out our journey. This was not a “road trip” and we took the least traveled routes that got us to a series of destinations in a reasonable time frame. The trip did not take us on I-66, the most heavily traveled road we used was US Route 29.

    In spite of this, in our travels we encountered two 18-wheel flatbeds owned by a company in Alabama hauling very heavy loads. One driver knew where he was going and apparently was running late, the other driver did know where he was going and was trying to keep up – ran some yellow / red lights, etc. The Alabama trucks were hauling just the sort of loads that should be on a railroad, not cutting off drivers in vehicles weighing one twentieth as much. At least we were visible and had good visibility from our vehicle.

    Then there were several landscaper’s trucks with big trailers full of parked (not secured) mowers and no brakes who were late for their next mowing job. There was an Escalade driver who did not want to be passed by a VW beetle and two Lexus drivers who wanted to get in front of the school bus before it made its next stop (more red lights) and then … You get the idea, it was a normal day on the roadways.

    No person in their right mind would drive an Aptera under these conditions and we were just running errands. One of the reasons I sold my first sports car, among others, was that I watched what happened to an MG-midget that was unseen by the driver of a semi when the truck changed lanes. An Aptera would fit nicely under the bed of, and then under the wheels of, one of those Alabama flatbeds…

    An Aptera would look like burner cover after being hit even by the VW Beetle. Driving a vehicle that rides low to the ground at 30, 40, 50 or 60 mph among other vehicles that weigh up to 30 times as much would be a form of insanity. Even the far more substantial Smart car profiled in THE PROBLEM WITH CARS would be “uncomfortable.”

    A few days later (6 June 2008) CNN ran a story “SUV owners keep on truckin’ despite gas prices.” You can guess why. The disaggregated lives of the owners lead them to believe that they have no alternative but to use these vehicles. And now Chrysler will guarantee they do not need to worry about gas prices if they buy a new Chrysler built SUV.

    Perhaps you would like to get a hybrid? On the 9th US News had a story titled “Is a Hybrid Worth it.” For the most part the answer is no from a return-on-investment perspective. The vast majority of the current rash of hybrids are just Green Greed – by companies that make them – and Green Fog by those who buy them.

    What is the bottom line here?

    The US of A has evolved:

    A settlement pattern,

    A transport system to serve that settlement pattern, and

    A system of providing Large Private Vehicles to drive on that system.

    Collectively, these three realities make incremental “improvements” in Mobility and Access

    Unwise for those at the top of the economic Ziggurat, and

    Impossible for the majority who are not at the top.

    What does this say about Fundamental Transformation (formerly Fundamental Change) in human settlement patterns and Fundamental Transformations in governance structure to achieve functional settlement patterns?

    It says that until the majority of citizens understand the need for those Fundamental Transformations they will not happen,

    And further, all the discussion of “solutions,” not just by the Tiger Riders but by well-intended incrementalists (“we-have-to-start-somewhere” / “that-is-all-we-can-sell-politically” / “this-is-a-step-in-the-right-direction”) only puts off the day when there is informed consensus of the need for Transformation / Change.

    Drive safely and have a good weekend.

    EMR

    PS: Jim said he would be traveling Saturday and it would be good to put up something. I hope he had a safe drive up from Greater Orlando, he was not in an Aptera.

  • Kaine Establishes Sub-Cabinet on Community Investment

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    Gov. Timothy M. Kaine has issued an executive order establishing a Sub-Cabinet on Community Investment tasked with the goal of promoting “smart, sustainable growth” by ensuring that state funds are invested in projects that reduce “suburban sprawl.”

    “Virginia loses 165 acres every day to development, and while we welcome growth and economic success, it is paramount that we grow in a wise and sustainable way with an eye towards conservation,” said Kaine in a press release. “The Sub-Cabinet on Community Investment will prioritize the state’s investments to make sure we protect Virginia’s precious natural resources for present use and future needs.”

    The Sub-Cabinet’s will destribute grants, loans, matching funds and other discretionary funds to “incentivize desirable growth.” The press release identified the following principles:

    • Invest in innovation
    • Invest in the use of existing infrastructure
    • Invest in compact development
    • Protect and restore Virginia’s natural resources
    • Conserve Virginia’s limited natural resources
    • Invest in diverse housing opportunities
    • Invest in alternative transportation choices
    • Take a long-term view to planning.

    “The Commonwealth will seek to invest in projects that promote compact development, consume less land, conserve open space, and minimize the negative social, economic, and environmental consequences of sprawl,” stated the press release.

    The Executive Order is an outgrowth of an internal policy summit, facilitated by the Governor’s Institute on Community Design, which recommended policies for sustainable growth and open space preservation in the Commonwealth. The Institute is chaired by former Maryland Governor Parris Glendening.

    “States that have been successful in protecting their natural resources, developing vibrant communities and improving mobility for their citizens have done so by encouraging cross-departmental collaboration,” said Governor Glendening. “The array of issues states face in addressing the impacts of growth and development demand such coordination and I commend Governor Kaine for taking this important step.”

    The Sub-Cabinet will be chaired by Secretary of Natural Resources L. Preston Bryant, and consist of Secretary of Administration Viola O. Baskerville, Secretary of Commerce and Trade Patrick O. Gottschalk, Secretary of Finance Jody M. Wagner, and Secretary of Transportation Pierce R. Homer.

    Bacon’s bottom line: This sounds like a positive step in the right direction, although the devil is always in the details. One thing that appears to be missing from the list of state “tools” for discouraging sprawl is transportation funding. I haven’t had a chance to read the Executive Order yet, so I shall refrain from further comment.

  • THE INELASTIC PERSPECTIVE OF THE TIGER RIDERS

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    Adam Smith is smiling.

    He never did like Tiger Riders, always believed in that invisible hand.

    Since 1973 – when I started paying careful attention (and when our Household made decisions to cut non-renewable energy consumption at the Household scale) – every time there has been a jump in fuel prices or lines at the gas stations citizens have changed their habits.

    This time is no exception. Yesterday’s headline at the top of WaPo Page 1 reads: “At $4 a Gallon, Rethinking Cars’ Reign.” In a CNN poll, most expect fuel shortages. “$5 a gallon by Fall” is the word on the street and Congress just gave speculators a green light.

    Over the same 35 years, every time some one suggests that:

    • Industrialized nation-states have to rethink dependence on Large, Private Vehicles for Mobility and Access there has been a chant about Americans loving Autonomobiles, or

    • A fair allocation of the cost of location-variable goods and services, the Tiger Riders talk about the inelasticity of gasoline prices, the prospect of cheap alternative fuels and unending supplies inexpensive energy.

    These smokescreens are just part much larger and more important deceptions related to the trajectory of civilization.

    In December of 2006 we suggested there was a need for “A New Metric for Citizen Well Being” (db4.dev.baconsrebellion.com) to replace consumption and growth.

    In March of this year we suggested, for the reasons spelled out in THE ESTATES MATRIX, that MainStream Media was obscuring the need to abandon Mass OverConsumption and Business As Usual in order to preserve – for the time being – its revenue stream. “Good New, Bad Reporting” 24 March 2008.

    Today’s WaPo headline is “McCain, Obama Clash over Economy.” One has an 80s solution, the other a 90s solution.

    Here are some tentative targets for crafting a realistic economic survival plan. There is no guarantee that this level of conservative action will change the trajectory enough but they will help and they are within limits that most citizens would embrace if they understood the enormity of the consequences of Business As Usual:

    One percent annual decline in Gross Domestic Product

    Three percent annual decline in Consumer Consumption

    Five percent annual decline in Total Energy Consumption

    Ten percent annual decline in Energy Imports

    After a decade on this new consumption trajectory it should be possible to anticipate a one percent annual drop in total population. Both per capita consumption and total population declines are necessary.

    The role of functional human settlement patterns will be critical in achieving these goals. Functional human settlement patterns are the only strategy that can achieve this level of conservation without destroying the Quality of Life for the majority of citizens.

    In fact Lewenz argues that changes in human settlement patterns that would achieve these goals at the Village scale would improve Quality of Life. We agree.

    In this discussion, we are talking about Quality of Life from the perspective of 75 percent of the economic and social Ziggurat. See THE ESTATES MATRIX.

    EMR

Now Available

Book cover of 'Dust Mites: A Second American Revolution' by James A. Bacon, featuring astronauts planting a flag with a blue and white emblem on a lunar landscape, with Earth visible in the background.
For sale on Amazon.com

The year: 2075. The American colonies on the Moon are getting restless under Washington’s tyrannical rule….

This second edition of “Dust Mites” has a snazzy new cover, includes helpful lunar maps, and is 5,000 words tighter than the original. The sequel, “Trogs,” is scheduled for publication this summer.

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