Bacon's Rebellion

  • GOVERNANCE TRANSFORMATION

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    Let us talk of Fundamental Transformation of governace structure.

    (Note: Peter Galuszka’s post on Commonwealth’s information technology “Behind the Northrop Grumman / VITA Scandals” 30 June 2009) spit into two themes as well as a sub-theme dealing with MainStream Media. EMR addressed the sub-theme on MainStream Media in the “Unbelievable Obliviousness” post of 7 July – FYI, there was an Ombudsman CYA in the 12 July WaPo on this topic. Many of the comments on “Northrop…” addressed the Commonwealth IT issue. The other theme that emerged was Governance Reform, examined here.)

    EMR likes Groveton’s goal: The governance structure closest to the citizens governs best. EMR does not, however, think Groveton’s strategy has legs. Giving more power to Fairfax County and then ‘hoping’ they will devolve it further is not realistic. (Some of Groveton’s original comment in the “Northrop…” string is repeated below with EMR comments.)

    Fairfax County has a larger population than seven states. It is hardly a “local” – as in ‘close to those governed’ – Agency. Closer than the Commonwealth, but NOT close enough.

    At the same time Fairfax County does not represent even half the population of the Virginia part of the Nation Capital SubRegion and covers perhaps 10% of the area.

    And that does not address the population or area of the National Capital SubRegion or the Washington-Baltimore NUR. The NUR is the fundamental economic, social and physical building block that impacts every citizen of the NUR not just in Virginia but in the Federal District, and parts of Maryland, West Virginia and Pennsylvania.

    EMR, Groveton and TMT all agreed in the “Northrop …” string that lower is better but what does ‘lower’ mean and how do citizens get there?

    What the simple “closest governs best” mantra does not reflect is that in contemporary society there are many levels of impact and thus the criteria must be “the lowest level is best so long as it represents all those impacted by the policy, program, or regulation” of the Agency.

    In other words: Level of control must be at level of impact.” Since there are often multiple levels of impact, there must be a governance structure that represents EVERY level and a system to share responsibility among levels.

    History documents that it is counter productive to assume the highest level should controls except for overarching “self-evident truths” impacting life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.

    This is the nub of the most important element of Fundamental Transformation of governance structure:

    In contemporary society there is no single level that is the obvious nexus of control for all issues that are the responsibility of the First Estate.

    It is possible to redistribute the powers and responsibilities of Agencies. EMR did that 40 years ago with the Adirondack SubRegional land use control, transport and amenity system that is still in effect (Although not optimum, it works better than many other attempts to Balance conservation and economic prosperity.)

    EMR also did the same thing for many functions of governance for NUR and USRs in the draft legislation to restructure governance below the state level in New York state in the late 60s.

    Fundamental Transformation means, FUNDAMENTAL TRANSFORMATION.

    The issue is explored in more depth in The Shape of the Future but here is a sketch of how to get started:

    The Cluster-scale is the LARGEST scaled component where direct democracy is a functional governance strategy. Most elementary schools have a room large enough for the Cluster to meet and discuss key issues. A board of seven or nine can keep track of most issue of importance at this scale. This level of democracy works, we prove it every day. It is hard, much harder than just kicking the issue up to higher levels and then complaining, but it works.

    Let Clusters choose what Neighborhood they want to be part of. It will be obvious in some cases but it should not be a foregone conclusion that leads to the Neighborhood having the last word, and then each higher level assuming they are can supercede the lower level and more important or have the last say on issue.

    In the same way, Neighborhoods choose what Village they want to be part of and Villages what Community, etc.

    Let components of settlement pattern and of governance Agencies COMPETE for citizens instead of exercising the ‘right’ to control those of smaller scale. There would be a buy-in for a set period of years and a cost allocation for disengagement but the potential would always be there to choose some better fit for your Cluster, your Neighborhood, your Village, your Community.

    The most important ingredient of the structure would be incentives to create Balance at each scale. For example delegating down taxing powers, level of autonomy and say about what happens in larger components by lower components increases with Balance.

    This would be especially important at the Village, Community and SubRegional scales. This structure would give Clusters and Neighborhoods a direct say in Regional facility and infrastructure decisions without NIMBY protectionism.

    You do not want it there (NIMBY), OK you can help pay for the added cost of putting the facility in a less efficient location, is an example of getting to the root of many settlement pattern dysfunctions.

    It would not be Neighborhood approval of the nation-state defense budget but you get the idea:

    Level of decision at level of impact.

    If there is shared impact then there is shared decision making. The highest level would rule only on issues fundamental to the Federal Constitution. As Groveton has pointed out, that is the theory now but that is not the way it works.

    As EMR pointed out in the “Northrop…” post (with clarification and spell checking):

    If one protects the turf of existing Governance Practitioners, there would be little real change. Also, per Groveton’s view, the GA likes the system the way it is — they have control without responsibility.

    When EMR was involved in Fairfax politics we found anything that the Chamber, the LWV and the Federation all backed went through the GA without a hitch — e.g. the bond authority for building roadways in the 70s.

    In other words, there is no specific difference between ‘city’ status and county status that could not be ‘fixed’ if there was a consensus on the need to change. If there is not consensus, the change is not going to happen regardless of status.

    THE BIG PROBLEM IS THAT WHAT EVER ONE CALLS IT, THE 244,000 + /- ACRES OF FAIRFAX COUNTY IS NOT AN ORGANIC COMPONENT OF HUMAN SETTLEMENT.

    Fairfax County includes all or part of nine Beta Communities. Fairfax does not just rank between Dallas and San Jose in population (and is 200,000 larger than Detroit), it is also more populous than seven of the 50 states including EMR’s home state of Montana.

    After Fundamental Transformation there could be a special fund to erect historic markers for Olde Fairfaxe.

    Since these issue were first raised in the “Northrop…” string, there have been references to, questions about and cross postings to Senator Chap Peterson’s Blog. In this Blog, Sen. Peterson seems to not support Fairfax County morphing to ‘city’ status – the same for the need for Fundamental Transformation.

    Then on Sunday, 5 July, WaPo did two stories on Fairfax County switching to ‘city’ status and a comment that contends that ‘city’ status would guarantee to more money for transportation – as if more money will mitigate the Mobility and Access Crisis without Fundamental Transformation in human settlement patterns….

    Some may have missed a great breath of fresh air in a 3 July WaPo story “New White House Office to Redefine What Urban Policy Encompasses: Agenda May Address Suburbs, Too.”

    Bruce Katz at Brookings has been working to redefine ‘urban policy’ as ‘metropolitan policy’ for years but keeps getting sabotaged by his habit of overusing the word ‘city’ and by his staff substituting ‘city’ for ‘Metropolitan Statistical Area’ (or New Urban Region) in their reports and press releases.

    In SYNERGY’s Vocabulary Urban policy addresses the Urban area of the nation-state where 95 of economic activity occurs in 2009.

    It is time to abandon the idea that “urban” is code for “central city” and for the interests of those citizens with a specific racial or cultural heritage.

    If one is to go to the trouble of making a change, make a change that is worth the effort.

    ………………

    For those who do not want to go back to “Northrop…”, here is the nub of Groveton’s suggestion with notes by EMR:

    “I think Fairfax needs a two part evolution.

    “First, the county needs city status to partly throw off the yoke of GA oppression.

    “Then, the new city/county needs to recognize even more granular decision making areas – the existing supervisory districts are close but would have to be adjusted.

    EMR suggests that there has been nothing stopping the County from doing this in the past. Every time a sub-county interest has appeared, it has been quashed by the County – e.g. the attempts by Reston to change status. Getting rid of the GA yoke would just put the primary focus on a different level with no difference in impact on the ground.

    “Then, there would need to be referenda at the local level. At first, the referenda could be advisory. However, after the process was refined the advisories would become binding.”

    Referenda can be useful tools but they are not a substitute for Fundamental Transformation.

    “To all the hacks in the GA – The government that governs closest to the people governs best. So, why doesn’t this happen in VA? I have begun to see the GA as “Useful Idiots” – …”

    All true, but that does not solve the problem.

    EMR has given a lot of thought and experimented with levels of governance number and effectiveness of below the county level in Fairfax County for 27 years (1975 to 2002)and in Fauquier County since then. We hope this clarifies the context and helps sort out the response to the problems that TMT raised in the “Northrop…” and in “A Quick One for Peter” of 10 July.

    EMR

  • A QUICK ONE FOR PETER

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    EMR is trying to catch up now that TRILO-G is going out for Beta Review and the fourth printing of The Shape of the Future is about to ship to Amazon, et. al. First we will do a post on the other theme raised in Peters ‘Northrop’ post (Governance Transformation) to answer some questions and respond to comment there, then we will do a post on the new TTI report (meeting related to that this PM) since there seems to be some confusion, and finally a note on why it is foolish to expect a “recovery,” but first a quick question for Peter:

    What is it about these Commonwealth-based food processing plants?

    First it is peanut butter, now cookie dough. Three separate E. Coli strains in cookie dough from one plant?!?

    Could it be that Virginia’s “business friendly” regulatory environment spills over and impacts federal inspections?

    What occurs?

    EMR

  • UNBELIEVABLE OBLIVIOUSNESS

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    The comments on Peter’s post on Commonwealth’s information technology “Behind the Northrop Grumman / VITA Scandals”) spit into two themes. In addition there is a sub-theme dealing with MainStream Media. Let us examine the sub-theme:

    TMT called our attention to a 2 July item on POLITICO re WaPo lobbyist ‘sponsored’ dinners.

    EMR printed it out and shared it with several folks. They were OUTRAGED. It seemed to EMR like Business-As-Usual but they were talking about un-subscribing.

    WaPo printed a weak explanation on 3 July to cover their tracks. If one does not understand THE ESTATES MATRIX, it is easy to see WaPo as the villain rather than just an Enterprise playing out their Second Estate Role.

    Today WaPo is back with a ‘we are making sure we are doing NOTHING wrong’ story titled “The Post Begins Reviews of Events to Avoid Ethics Conflicts. The first paragraph reads:

    “The Washington Post yesterday initiated internal review to ensure that its business practices do not compromise it journalistic ethics WHEN THE NEWSPAPER ORGANIZES CONFERENCES OR PRIVATE EVENTS FUNDED BY SPONSORS. (Emphasis added)

    WHAT???

    How can they even DREAM there is not a blatant conflict that arises by just talking about such events?

    Stop the Journalist charade, WaPo is an Enterprise, it is in business to make money. If it makes money from anything except those who buy its news services – including advertising by Agencies, Enterprises or Institutions that it reports on – it is prima facia CONFLICT.

    These actions just document that the Organization has left the Fourth Estate and moved to the Second Estate. There is nothing ‘wrong’ with making money from providing access to speical interests so long as the Enterprise admits what they are doing and that they are in the Second Estate AND they do not try to hide behind a charade of ‘fourth estate journalism.’ It died in the 20th century.

    It helps if one has a Comprehensive Conceptual Framework (THE ESTATES MATRIX or another one of your choosing) otherwise one ends up with impenetrable claptrap such as that by Clay Skirky who is ‘excerpted’ in the July-August 2009 Utne Reader.

    Until there is robust, diverse CitizenMedia in the Fourth Estate, citizens will not have the information they need to make intelligent choices in the marketplace or in the voting booth.

    EMR

  • Behind the Northrop Grumman, VITA Scandals

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    The continuing woes of the Virginia Information Technologies Agency and the state’s $2.4 billion IT contract with Northrop Grumman raise questions about some particularly “Virginian” conceits. One has to do with the state’s self consciousness about being a “tech” state and its propensity for privatizing public operations.

    Northrop Grumman has been accused of cost overruns, delays and sloppy service with the 10-year contract it won in 2005 under Gov. Mark Warner to take the state’s antiquated computer system and turn into something that is “state of the art.”
    VITA was created in 2002 to oversee state IT work and it, too, has been racked by controversy. Its programs were hacked in April and a few weeks ago, its chief, Lemuel Stewart was cashiered for allegedly questioning the high costs of the Northrup Grumman contract. Now it appears that Northrup Grumman is at least six months late in its work upgrading state computers.
    Legislative watchdogs are starting to bark. This is bad news for outgoing Gov,. Tim Kaine, who is doing double duty as head of the Democratic National Committee still basking in the honeymoon glow of the Obama election.
    First, some perspective about the players:
    • Los Angeles-based Northrop Grumann is a major defense contractor with a huge footprint in Virginia. It operates many offices in Northern Virginia that serve the Pentagon and other federal agencies. Northoup Grumman is a specialist in federal IT and defense IT work. What’s more, it owns Newport News Shipbuilding, one of the largest employers in the state and the only shipyard in the nation that can build and service surface nuclear-powered vessels such as Nimitz class aircraft carriers and the next generation.
    • U.S. Sen. Mark Warner, who let the Northrop Grumman contract as governor, is a rising Democtratic star who cut his teeth on IT and related ventures. Back in the 1980s, Warner, not long out of Harvard Law, built a fortune estimated at the time of $400 million by brokering deals among nascent cell phone companies. The Federal Communications Commission had held auctions for band with needed for cellphones but the auctions sold off radio waves haphazardly. Ever the entrepreneur, Warner worked out private swaps among companies wanting to put togther cell networks in specific markets, thus earning himself a rep as a tech savvy guy.
    • Tim Kaine, Warner’s Democratic successor, has also positioned himself as a business-friendly, tech savvy politician.
    • The Republicans, notably former Gov. Jim Gilmore, first rode the tech wave back in the 1990s when the World Wide Web was exploding on the scene and NOVA became home to America Online, other Net-based firms and many telecoms. In 1998, Gilmore introduced the concept of the Secretary of Technology, the first ever in the U.S. Then, and now, half of the U.S. Intenet traffic still passes through NOVA. A lot of the telecoms and Net firms, however, went bust around 2001.

    Add it all up, and you have a state that is eager, maybe too eager, to be known as tech savvy. It’s as if a pale wallflower at a dance suddenly becomes almost as hot as Miss Cool Bay Area or Brainy Miss Boston. That’s a lot better rep than Massive Resistance or trying not to let the Confederate Generals on Monument Avenue in Richmond get soiled by an Arthur Ashe memorial.

    Another factor dates from the Jim Gilmore/George Allen years. Back then, when tech was hot, the economy was expanding and Bill Clinton was slipping from Bimbo to Bimbo, there came a neocon idea that privatizing the public sector was worthy and wonderful. Starting back in the Reagan-Thatcher years, the concept assumed that the free market was the best way to control costs efficiently and unleash creativity. Thus, private firms should be hired to run state functions, such as highways or IT functions.
    Although the ideas were hatched with the GOP, privatization and public-private partnerships were embraced by business-friendly Dems such as Mark Warner and Kaine. So, when Mark W. wanted to show his tech-savviness and pointed to antiquated, underfunded state IT systems, the obvious solution was to turn them over to the private sector, which in this case, was one of the state’s biggest and most politically powerful employers.
    Well, ahem, it hasn’t worked out that well, as the scandals with Northrop Grumman and VITA show. Maybe private business isn’t all that more competent than plodding old government bureaucracies. There’s plenty of evidence against the private sector, given its record leading up to the worst recession since the Great Depression. Arrogance, hubris and aggravating, short-term thinking come to mind.
    Maybe it’s time for Virginia to move on from this style of thinking that is stuck the nineties. The venture capital and IPO days are really so very yesterday. And isn’t the Net just a more advanced telephone system and not a god unto itself? How about some good old-fashioned service and keeping your word and upholding your end of a deal?
    Peter Galuszka

  • Surry’s Huge Coal-Fired Plant

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    Coal-fired electricity generation remains one of the hottest issues in the Old Dominion and the nation. With some form of cap and trade law almost inevitable in Congress and with polls showing that 75 percent of Americans think that carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases need regulation, the issues really does have legs.
    In Virginia, for the past several years, the tip of the spear was in St. Paul’s in Wise County where Dominion plans to build a $1.6 billion, 585-megawatt coal-fired plant. That project has been a rallying cry for environmentalists nationally, some of whom such as the Sierra Club have pledged to fight any big, base-loaded, coal-fired plant anywhere. They have had some successes, notably in the Southwest.
    Now, the focus is shifting farther east, to the flat peanut lands of Surry County about halfway between Richmond and Norfolk. There, Henrico County-based Old Dominion Electric Cooperative plans on building twin 750 megawatt units costing perhaps $6 billion — in other words, a facility maybe three times as big as Dominion’s in Wise County.
    In a story I reported for Richmond’s Style Weekly, I note that the so-called Cypress Creek Power Station would be the second largest of its kind in the state. It would instantly become the state’s sixth biggest air polluter, air pollution officials say. The facility would be fed via a new rail spur from Norfolk Southern’s coal mainline to Norfolk. Water for steam would be pumped 15 miles from the James River and heated water would be pumped back into the estuary. Fly ash from the coal will be buried on the project’s 1,600-acre site, not far from the town’s well water supply, local opponents say.
    The plant would be in the town of Dendron, population 300, which is a flyspeck decorated with black “No Coal Plant” signs. These mimic the “No OLF” sings one sees throughout Tidewater Virginia and Northeastern North Carolina regarding local opposition to the Navy’s efforts to locate a new landing field so their F-18 Super Hornet jet fighters can simulate air craft carrier landings. The problem: Super Hornets are some of the loudest aircraft ever built.
    Old Dominion Electric Cooperative claims that the plant is needed to help them meet a shortfall by 2016 of some 4,000 megawatts Virginia will face in electricity unless new plants are built. ODEC has 11 mostly-rural; members in this state, Maryland and Virginia. It has begun the process of getting the 50 or more permits it needs to start construction.
    The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers needs to approve a plan for ODEC to tap water in the James River and then return heated water back into the estuary not far from the tourist havens of Jamestown and Williamsburg. According to ODEC data, Cypress Creek would annually emit 3,085 tons of nitrogen oxide a year, 3,685 tons of sulfur dioxide, nearly a half a ton of lead, 283 tons of sulfuric mist and 2,155 tons of particulates. The project needs another permit from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers because construction will alter wetlands.
    Of particular concern to the state Department of Environmental Quality is ODEC’s estimate that the plant will emit 118 pounds per year of highly toxic mercury. By contrast, Dominion Resources’s Wise County plant will emit only 5.5 pounds of mercury a year. Given prevailing wind patterns in Surry, the mercury could fall onto the water of the James River and Chesapeake Bay and be dangerous to wildlife. “This is something we’re absolutely going to be looking at,” says state air pollution analyst Sparky H.L. Lisle Jr.
    Surry County, which has been home to twin nuclear reactors owned by Dominion for 37 years, could use the tens of millions the project would pay. Some 200 permanent jobs would help the rural, sleepy country.
    Yet there are more questions about the project than just its immediate pollution impact. For one thing, ODEC has recently lost its largest member, the Manassas-based Northern Virginia Electric Cooperative with 142,000 customers, terminated its relationship with ODEC Dec. 31 over a contract dispute. “We thought we could do better with a different power supplier,” says Virginia Burginger, a NOVEC spokeswoman. If this is so, why the urgency to build such a big plant?
    Another issue is if much-larger Dominion will fill the shortfall with new plants such as Wise, another nuke at North Anna, windmills and so on. A Dominion spokesman told me that the shortfall is actually larger — about 4,600 megawatts by the last part of next decade. Dominion should be able to add 4,200 megawatts of extra generation capacity by then. If so, this raises questions about why the ODEC project is necessary or if their real aim is to wholesale electricity beyond its members.
    Lastly, there are carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases. ODEC has not provided details about how they plan to capture CO2. A report by Synapse, a Cambridge, Mass. consulting firm funded by environmentalists, claims that depending on what kind of cap and trade law goes into effect, ODEC ratepayers could face extra costs of from $223 million to $1.76 billion to handle carbon dioxide. ODEC publicly dissed the report, calling it “speculative and inaccurate” but did not responded to a Synapse request to provide more information. ODEC claims that the plant will actually save its customers about $14 billion but doesn’t say how.
    A personal note: I tried to interview ODEC but they refused, saying that my blog postings on the site showed I was biased against the plant. I beg to differ. ODEC then went to the publications to whom I had tried to sell the story. Style Weekly, bless their hearts, told ODEC that they had reviewed my postings and didn’t see that I had raised anything to the level of advocacy on my part.
    True enough. I’m just asking questions like any reporter. I guess my questions weren’t too welcome.
    Peter Galuszka

  • METRO FINGER POINTING

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    The finger pointing concerning the METRO Red Line Wreck is in high gear.

    There is one area of concern that you will not hear about in the MainStream Media:

    Dysfunctional human settlement patterns in the METRO station areas.

    The failure to evolve supporting settlement patterns (aka, ‘land use’) in the station areas is the primary reason that “most of the METRO trains leave most of the METRO stations mostly empty most of the time.”

    No shared-vehicle system can operate efficiently pumping one way in the morning and the other way at night PERIOD.

    If there was Balance between the station area travel demand and the METRO system capacity there would then be far more revenue to keep the system maintained and far more citizen support for the absolutely necessary stable funding sources.

    There would also be no need to push the system beyond it’s capacity to serve peak demand.

    Of course, there would also be far fewer wrong size houses in the wrong locations with underwater mortgages – but that is another story – see last post.

    Want the details on what needed to be done and what STILL needs to be done? Read EMR’s 1989 report “It Is Time to Fundamentally Rethink METRO and Mobility in the National Capital Subregion” most recently revised and updated 18 October 2004.

    Want to see a clear ‘blueprint’ for where and how Fundamental Transformation could be done? Google “Blueprint for a Better Region.”

    And before anyone gets off their hay wagon and tries to pitch cheap shots about how the ‘real problem’ is building a heavy rail based shared-vehicle system in the first place, read the full analysis of one of the leading anti-rail quacks recent scribblings summarized in this abstract:

    “Clifford Winston and Vikram Maheshri attempt to use benefit-cost analysis to make a definitive
    statement about the social desirability of urban rail transit in the United States. Their argument is
    deficient on several elementary analytic and statistical grounds. They underestimate total benefits, and therefore net benefits, and their failure to examine the suitability of their data and to pay attention to the usual caveats associated with benefit-cost analysis further undermines their
    assertions. As a result, these findings should not be used to inform either the debate or decisions
    about investment in urban rail systems.”

    The study can be found at www.vtpi.org

    Lets point the fingers at solutions, not the villains or the strawpersons. It has been 20 years and time is running out.

    EMR

  • BROOKINGS MetroMonitor

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    A PATH TO UNDERSTANDING THE IMPORTANCE OF REGIONAL INTELLIGENCE AND THE IMPERATIVE OF EVOLVING REGIONAL STRATEGIES

    On 17 June Gooze Views posted “How Virginia’s Metro Areas Are Weathering the Recession” about the three largest of Virginia’s 11 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). On the same day a WaPo story addressed the Washington, D. C.-VA-MD-WV MSA. As Peter noted, the data to support both stories came from an invaluable new research tool developed by Brookings Institution called MetroMonitor.

    MetroMonitor has just been launched but is already a very useful resource. It provides data on ten parameters covering – Gross Regional Product, Employment / Unemployment / Wages and Shelter for the largest 100 MSAs in the US of A. The MetroMonitor web site http://www.brookings.edu/metro/MetroMonitor.aspx?emc=lm&m=226673&l=2&v=41423 includes maps that are color coded by quartile for all ten parameters and a spread sheet. Brookings plans to up date this resource quarterly.

    Viewing MetroMonitor as a whole, the first thing that strikes one is the immense diversity among the 100 largest MSAs. The 100 largest MSAs encompass about 75% of the economic activity in the US of A. (There are 366 MSAs in the US of A and a whole alphabet soup of other “Census Defined” geographies. The New Urban Region data used by SYNERGY is based on the 68 largest urban agglomerations and represents over 85 percent of economic activity in the US of A.)

    The primary message to take from MetroMonitor? These data document that there is NO one nation-state-wide policy that will improve the economic, social and physical well being of all Regions. Further some of the most often touted “policy alternatives” (aka, ways to spend federal money) will damage many Regions.

    Three examples drive home this point:

    It is painfully apparent that MainStream Media and most Governance Practitioners are still dreaming that the Great Recession will be eclipsed by the two principle economic forces that have been relied on to end every recession since World War II. (It is worth noting in passing that it was World War II, and not specific economic policies that ended the Great Depression.)

    The sale of cars and houses have pulled citizens and their Organizations out of every recession over the past 64 years.

    It does not take Adam Smith, John Keynes or Milton Friedman to understand that policies that make shelter cheaper will damage, not help, all those Regions with depressed residential real estate markets and large numbers of lender owned housing. That is the focus of WaPo story noted above: “Region’s Economic Performance Ranks High: Housing Sector Remains a Drag.”

    The US of A is an Urban society and many believe most of the ‘urban ills’ of the past 64 years were CAUSED by Federal policies. Kirkpatrick Sales provides a thumbnail summary of this view based on his analysis of the demise of South Bronx in Human Scale.

    The other primary recession killer employed over the past six plus decades has been car sales. Policies to boost cars sales (especially Large, Private Autonomobiles) will help some rust belt MSAs over the short haul but it will damage EVERY Region in the long term because it will continue to drive dysfunctional human settlement patterns. Oh yes, then there is the matter of balance of payments / imported oil, air pollution, etc.

    EMR suggested in this forum (“Addicted to Autonomobiles,” 2 June 2009) that those who can afford an autonomobile already have two or three and those who cannot afford an autonomobile need functional settlement patterns, not a vehicle they will not be able to afford soon. (You have noticed that every time the stock market ticks up because someone “sees the bottom,” the price of crude jumps even thought there is now a glut of petroleum.)

    For all Regions, one-size-fits-all programs like “Cash for Clunkers” is just another way to dig citizens further into the Mobility and Access Crisis.

    Finally with respect to employment:

    Recent data shows that the National Capital Subregion (and other MSA-comparable geographies) have added jobs but also increased unemployment. EMR has pointed in this forum that what is needed in most Regions are jobs for those who are not highly skilled and are not highly motivated.

    There is a lot of debate about how much economic boost ‘green’ jobs will produce but no one is talking about the sort of jobs for which most of the unemployed now (or after training will) qualify. Broad brush federal programs to ‘add jobs’ may not add the right jobs in any Region. The bottom line is that jobs need to be the right ones for each Region, not a one-size-fits-all hole into which the fed pours newly printed dollars.

    All this points to the need for Regional Strategies to address Regional Conditions in order to evolve sustainable New Urban Regions comprised of Balanced Communities. Did someone say Fundamental Transformation of governance structure?

    A couple of suggestions:

    The MetroMonitor would be greatly enhanced by the addition of an indicator measuring Regional Consumer Confidence. If 70 to 80 percent of the US of A’s economy is consumer consumption then knowing Regional consumer confidence is critical.

    Citizens can do a lot if they have the right information, are motivated and confident that what they are doing will improve citizen well being and quality of life.

    Another improvement would be to aggregate the MSA data MegaRegion. Right now it looks like there is great diversity WITHIN MegaRegions.

    For example, the National Capital Subregion (Washington MSA plus) and the Baltimore Subregion (Baltimore MSA plus) do not fall in the same 20 percent category for a single one of the ten indicators.

    This suggests there is a need for not just Regional strategies but also MegaRegional strategies where Balance can be achieved from trade-offs within a MegaRegion.

    Brookings staff is aware of the “America 2050″ program that is focused on MegaRegions. This would seem to be a simple step to take on the path to creating ‘Real Regional’ data (aka, New Urban Region and MegaRegion Data) not just MSA data. Even more important will be to evolve subsets of the Regional Data to reflect Beta Communities and NOT state or municipal jurisdictions.

    This last suggestion illustrates how valuable MetroMonitor would be if Governance Practitioners had not been doing everything in their power to obscure and obfuscate an understanding of the evolution of the organic structure of Urban systems for the past 222 years.

    EMR

  • The Risky Business of Journalism

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon


    The dramatic escape from his Taliban captors by New York Times correspondent David Rohde shows just how dangerous journalism can be.

    Yet journalists keep getting trashed, mostly from the right wing, for supposedly being biased or dim-witted dupes. Many actually work very hard risking their lives for little fame and, these days, less and less money. Instead of being spoon-fed information by sources with specific agendas, many painstakingly dig up information without fear or favor and put the pieces together as best they can before going into print, on the air or online.
    Rohde, a two-time Pultizer winner, knew the risks when he arranged a dicey interview in Afghanistan. He was kidnapped and held prisoner with two others for seven months. Waiting when the guard was down, he and another man scaled a prison wall and and raced to freedom.
    Much of the danger is overseas. The Committee to Protect Journalists reports that during this year alone. 17 journalists have been killed. Since the early 1990s, 138 have been killed in Iraq, 60 in Algeria and 50 in Russia.
    I am especially sensitive to Russia since I worked as a foreign correspondent there for a total of six years in the 1980s and 1990s and know some of the dead. I will never forget the coup against Boris Yeltsin on Oct. 3 and 4, 1993 where much of the action took place just outside our apartment.
    I’ll never forget the night of Oct. 3 when I drove alone in my Russian-made car (sort of like a 1972 Fiat) to the country’s TV complex. Skin-head “red-brown” thugs, some with Afghanistan War experience, were trying to break into the TV center to broadcast their propaganda that the Yeltsin government had fallen. Loyal troops held fast instead. A small crowd of journalists watched from very close quarters. Rebels tried to bash their way in with a truck. Finally, one launched a rocket-propelled grenade into the front door. Machine guns on both sides opened up.
    This occur ed minutes before I was driving to the tv complex. People were cowering on the roadway. I heard the machine guns and watched their tracer rounds make distinct lines from either side of the darkened road. The tracers crossed just at a point a few hundred yards where my car was heading. With no armor plating and armed with only a notebook, I turned around. Four journalists, including a Briton,. were caught in the bloodbath and were shot dead. A New York Times photographer was shot in the lungs. Three more would die before the two-day rebellion was over.
    Here are some more examples of death in Russia:
    • Cynthia Elban, an American stringer for Time, died in Chechnya in 1994. Her head was blown off in an air raid by Russian planes.
    • A friend of mine and a Russian investigative reporter, Yuri Shchekochikin, died mysteriously of “allergies” in 2003 just as he was to fly to the U.S. to interview the FBI about Russian organized crime. High-spirited Yuri was a kind and entertaining man. A great drinking buddy.
    • Paul Khlebnikov. An American of Russian descent, he had written critically of the Russian oligarchs and won their wrath. As he was starting a Russian edition of Forbes, he was shot down in an apartment. He was an acquaintance of mine.
    • Anna Politkovskaya, famed for her tough articles on Russian government and military corruption in Chechnya, was gunned down near her apartment.

    There are many more. None of these people took freedom of the press lightly. They paid for it with their lives.

    What about the here and now in the U.S. Frankly, I am scared that the ad-slammed, dumbed-down and otherwise almost-out-of-business news media industry in this country will continue trends to not do investigative reporting and will only print or broadcast what powerful institutions, such as governments, corporations or universities want them to. I am already seeing it happen.
    Peter Galuszka

  • How Virginia’s Metro Areas Are Weathering the Recession

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    How’s Virginia faring in the recession? Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads are doing well among the nation’s metropolitan areas. Richmond is about in the middle.
    That’s the conclusion of a new Brookings Institution study of the nation’s top 100 metro areas.See: http://www.brookings.edu/reports/2009/06_metro_monitor.aspx.
    All in all Virginia isn’t in bad shape, the study implies. Hardest hit areas include California, such as the Bay Area, Los Angeles and the Central Valley and most of Florida. The rust belt from western Pennsylvania, across northern Ohio and on into Michigan are also hard hit. The strongest single area seems to be the central Southwest, including most of Texas and Oklahoma. The Northeast is mixed as is the Deep South.
    The obvious reason for NOVA’s and Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News’ strength is the federal government. Both areas are filled with civil service and defense jobs.
    Richmond is a little harder to explain. With its chemical plants and cigarette factories, the Richmond area is more of a blue collar manufacturing area than its Old Dominion sisters. Although it is the seat of state government, Virginia’s public sector is taking its lumps with significant layoffs and budget shortfalls.
    Raleigh-Durham, another point of comparison for Richmond, fares better, Brookings reports. There are similarities with tobacco and state jobs, but the North Carolina capital region is home to the Research Triangle and its many pharmaceutical and health care jobs that are more recession-proof and simply outclass what Richmond has to offer.
    Brookings implies that we may be on the way to a weak economic recovery. I’ll take that. After the past 18 months, I’ll take anything.
    Peter Galuszka

  • What Does FDA Regulation of Tobacco Really Mean?

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon


    Many years ago –38 to be precise — I was sweating in the Turkish bath of an Eastern North Carolina tobacco field working on a story about seasonal labor hired to prime and sucker the plant. It was just before dawn and a reddish tinge glowing over the country mist. Young teenagers were getting out of a ramshackle school bus to get to work on the bright green plants.

    I was a college kid working a summer on my hometown local daily. At the time, tobacco had a deep and lasting impact on states that grew it, including Virginia and of course, North Carolina

    where bright leaf ruled in the east.
    So, it comes as a bit of a stunner and time trip to realize that the $89 billion U.S. tobacco industry may well be regulated by the Food and Drug Administration. It always seemed odd that it wasn’t. Nicotine is as much a drug as aspirin or morphine. Tobacco is a plant like peanuts, corn, soybeans or wheat. But the powerful tobacco industry managed to fight off decades of threats of regulation to avoid any interference by the feds that could question tar, nicotine or any of the other thousands of toxic and carcinogenic chemicals in every satisfying drag of a cigarette.
    Yet as overwhelming as the Senate vote was last week for FDA oversight, exactly what it means isn’t quite clear. Expected are strict new rule son cigarette advertising, a ban on candy or fruit-flavored smokes and possibly big limits on “snus” or smokeless tobacco products that tobacco companies such as Richmond’s Philip Morris USA have invested heavily in.
    Oddly, the FDA ruling has split the usually unified tobacco industry in two. Philip Morris has backed FDA regulation for years. Reynolds American and Lorillard Tobacco have continued to fight it tooth and nail. Opponents claim that Philip Morris wants the bill because it understands that strict regulation of tobacco is inevitable and backing FDA oversight could lock PM in its leading market positions with such popular smokes as Marlboro.
    I listened carefully on NPR when I was driving the other day when I heard PM spokesman Bill Phelps explain that his firm knows its products are harmful and is trying to deal with it. It’s the same argument PM has been issuing since the Master Settlement Agreement in 1998. It’s also a bit disingenuous because its recently split off sister company, Philip Morris International, is aggressively targeting international markets with higher tar and nicotine products. The World Health Organization predicts that one billion people will die of smoking related illness globally during this century.
    According to The Washington Post today, the old Eastern N.C. tobacco belt where I cut my teeth as a cub newspaper reporter is in turmoil over the FDA oversight possibility. Farmers are quoted saying that the FDA is overworked and incompetent. It can’t handle emergencies and they do have a point. They badly fell down on the job in this year’s tainted food scandal at Lynchburg-based Peanut Corporation of America that ended up with a number of deaths and many illnesses.
    In as much as we don’t know what FDA regulation of tobacco will mean — it won’t come close to banning the product — it does show how much times have changed in the Tobacco Belt. As the Post points out, North Carolina industries have moved away from tobacco to computers, software, banking and pharmaceuticals.
    That’s a little less true in Richmond where PM has a huge presence. If the FDA all but puts smokeless tobacco out of business, one wonders what will happen to PM’s $350 million research lab at the Virginia Biotech Park in downtown Richmond. It is the cornerstone of the park that struggled for years and now seems to be taking off.
    But the trend is clear. The question now is how much things will really change.
    Peter Galuszka

  • Can Bailouts Actually Work?

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    When the financial world was turned upside down last fall, there was gnashing of teeth aplenty at what seemed to be the Bush Administration’s bailout after bailout of wayward banks.
    One side of the aisle complained that the government had no business tampering with free markets and the other complained that why should public money be used to save hubristic and overpaid corporate executives.
    As the Bush years faded into the Obama ones, lots of people conveniently forgot upon whose watch this fell. For instance, I interviewed U.S. Rep. Eric Cantor a few weeks ago and he was complaining that “we have to get the government out of the capital markets.” I pointed out that George Bush and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, both Republicans like Cantor, were the ones that inserted the feds into finance. He was silent for a full 15 seconds protesting that it was seen as a catastrophe. I guess Eric typically gets a free and unchallenged ride from the Virginia media.
    Anyway, on to my point. The news today is that 10 big bailout banks — J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group, Morgan Stanley, BB&T, U.S. Bancorp, American Express, Capital One, Bank of New York Mellon, Northern Trust and State Street — all want to start paying back their billions in bailout funds.
    Good news, to be sure. It shows that a recovery might actually be in the offing. And it shows that the banks want federal government restrictions brought on by the bailouts, gone.
    The news points out another thing. It is fairly common in financial crisis to have a government bail stuff out and it can be only temporary. A couple case points:
    • Chrysler was slammed by shoddy cars and bad decisions in the 1970s. It got federal loan guarantees worth $1.5 billion in 1979. New management saved the day and the firm paid everything back by 1983.
    • Long Term Capital Management, a big hedge fund, went bust in 1998, threatening plenty of investors. It came as much of the rest of the world, Thailand, Taiwan, Singapore, Japan, Russia, and Mexico were going through or had gone through bad times. The Ne York Fed arranged more than $3.6 billion in loans which were paid back by 2000.

    There are other example,s but you get the point. It is actually a tried ands trusted practice for the government to come in with bailouts and sometimes it works. If this sounds like I’m saying something positive about George W. Bush it may well be.
    I am not addressing, however, the massive bailouts of American International Group, one of those “too big to fail” firms. What has happened is shameless and I wish grand juries and Congressional probes on the perps. And, there is a legitimate question out if these types of bailouts tend to perpetuate a flawed financial system that got us into trouble in the first place.
    But I stand by my point -sometimes bailouts are good things and can work.
    Peter Galuszka

  • Free Markets Forever? Let History Judge

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    “Let History Judge” was the title of the book of one of my favorite Soviet-era historians — Roy Medvedev. I used to visit him back in the 1980s in his yellow-colored apartment building in the northwest quadrant of Moscow.
    His type of five-story building was called a “Khruschovy” after Khruschev because lots were built in the Nikita years of the 1950s and early 1960s. Medvedev’s book also had a Khruschevian twist since it detailed the crimes of Josef Stalin — something permissible only after Khruschev’s “secret speech” of 1956.
    Now comes an exhortation of another dynamic Soviet-era leader. Mikhail S. Gorbachev writes in Sunday’s Washington Post that the West could use a little perestroika right now. And he’s damned right about that.
    Gorbachev will go down as one of the most important game changers of the late 20th century. He set the stage for the generally peaceful transition of a massive and hateful totalitarian state. His perestroika or “rebuilding” was flawed since it assumed the socialist state could be merely changed instead of dumped, but he still represents an uncanny honesty in analysis. For children of the Cold War such as me, that’s a bizarre irony since we were taught that Communist leaders only lie.
    Here’s the essence of Gorbachev’s argument:
    “In the West, the breakup of the Soviet Union was viewed as a total victory that proved that the West did not need to change. Western leaders were convinced that they were at the helm of the right system and of a well-functioning, almost perfect economic model. Scholars opined that history had ended. “The Washington Consensus,” the dogma of free markets, deregulation and balanced budgets at any cost, was force-fed to the world.
    “But then came the economic crisis of 2008 and 2009, and it became clear that the new Western model was an illusion that benefited chiefly the very rich. Statistics show that the poor and the middle class saw little or no benefit from the economic growth of the past decades.
    “The current global crisis demonstrates that the leaders of major powers, particularly the United States, had missed the signals that called for a perestroika. The result is a crisis that is not just financial and economic. It is political, too.
    “The model that emerged during the final decades of the 20th Century has turned out to be unsustainable. It was based on a drive for super-profits and hyper-consumption for a few, on unrestrained exploitation of resources and on social and environmental irresponsibility.”
    I don’t know of many who could say it better. I was in Moscow as a journalist during the Gorbachev era and then during Yeltsin. With Gorby, there was a great excitement, sort of like the mood in the U.S. in the 1960s when a number of big revolutions were underway, notably in race relations, sex roles and economic inequality. Gorbachev was much loved but when fast-paced history overtook events and the USSR fell apart in December 1991, there was an orgy of self congratulation in the West. Many, my New York-based editors included, said it was the triumph of Reagan-Thatcher free market policies, which, we now know, gives far too much credit to both conservative leaders.
    When I returned to my Moscow post in 1993, I naturally couldn’t believe the changes. The KGB didn’t follow me around, they were working at private security at upscale grocery stores and came up to say hello, knowing me by name and asking how it was to be back. Along showcase streets once tightly controlled to let the Zil limos of the Party bosses race past, there were occasional mob shootouts.
    But perhaps the most stunning change was how the U.S. Embassy no longer seemed very important. The sources you absolutely needed to have were at the International Monetary Fund.
    The West, lead by George H.W. Bush and then by Bill Clinton, pretty much handed over running policies for the New Russia to the bureaucrats of the IMF, who, of course, were pushing the standard medicine of free markets trump all everywhere. Moscow had better balance its budget, get control of its money supply, end government services and get with the program if it were to get its next tranche of $4 billion in aid.
    I’ll never forget what one Russian official, an old friend, warned me about. He was a little older than I and had been a Party apparatchik helping run a tractor factory. He was a pretty bright guy, ended up getting an MBA from Harvard and came back and took over the tractor factory in an LBO in the new privatization world. He was very worried saying that the West just didn’t get it. All the social services provided by the state, cradle to grave coverage of medicine, schools, vacations and funerals, went through the factories. After privatization, the social services were the first to be cut. Nothing was there to take its place. He said this was foolhardy, no matter what bullshit the IMF was pushing. The Chinese weren’t doing it this way and were a lot more successful.
    And guess what? He was right. That’s one reason we have Putin and his shadow government of siloviki or power players today.
    Gorbachev is dead on right about our need to rethink and restructure. We really need to stop thinking that the “free market” can solve all problems. Our supposedly wonderful economic model really only benefited the very rich. But today, everyone is paying the price for mindlessly following the ideas of laissez-faire conservatives.
    So, let’s chuck the absolutist dogma of free markets, and, as Roy Medvedev would say, “Let History Judge.”
    Peter Galuszka

  • Trani Gets Some Payback

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    A word to the Wise: be wary when you mess with a street-wise Italian guy from Philly.
    That’s Eugene P. Trani, the outgoing president of Virginia Commonwealth University, to be precise.
    Trani’s 19-year tenure at VCU has been marked by huge successes and some serious questions about abusing his power. On the plus side, Trani has taken VCU, basically a third tier commuter school, and taken it clearly into second-tier status. He’s raised the level of student and expanded the programs the school offers, including a number of overseas outlets such as one in Qatar.
    Richmond’s renaissance around Monroe Park and Broad Street is also an achievement that only a very rare man or woman can claim credit for.
    On the negative side, Trani has been criticized for big-footing neighborhoods such as Oregon Hill as he’s rebuilt and expanded. He is a bit of a megalomaniac, renaming the venerable Medical College of Virginia as VCU med school, to the chagrin of legions of MCV grads. Trani did so because a USA Today reporter got MCV mixed up with UVA — not exactly a serious reason. Trani was also under heavy criticism for the scandal in which Richmond’s former police chief won a bachelor’s degree without meeting requirements.

    My issue with Trani was that he got so involved with the Richmond power structure that he threw his weight around with no checks or balances. He has been criticized for spending so much time on bricks and mortar projects that he squandered opportunities to enhance VCU’s rep as a research center.

    It badly needed it since on Trani’s watch, in 1999, the National Institutes of Health banned VCU (and MCV) from doing any research work on human bodies after failing to keep federal privacy rules in line. In recovery, Trani hired a well-regarded scientists to do a makeover of VCU research. The woman, a South African by background, did just that, but later quit in a controversy involving Trani’s backing of highly questionable, strictly confidential research contracts with Philip Moris USA.

    Many first rate schools decline to take tobacco money. Others that do, such as the University of Virginia and Duke, accept money only if they control the research. In VCU’s case, Trani gladly took the money and called the contracts “research service agreements” which supposedly meant they weren’t really research. In the original deal, anyone who questioned the contracts was to be immediately reported to Philip Morris. Groups such as the Association of American University Professors said that Trani’s view that the contracts were not research was nonsense.

    Trani wanted to protect Philip Morris because the tobacco giant bailed out his faltering Virginia Biotechnology Research park. So when the New York Times called a year or so ago when it was breaking the story about the secretive research pacts, Trani wouldn’t talk to them.

    I smelled something funny, especially since the local newspaper, which pushes Trani and VCU hard, had its “investigative” reporter take a look. He concluded that nothing was amiss because the University of Louisville, another low-ranked school in another tobacco town, had similar pacts.

    So, I did some of my own investigating which was published a year ago on richmond.com. My story, which somehow is no longer available on Richmond.com’s server after Media General bought the Website, outlined the research issues and noted that some faculty and administrators were fearful of Trani’s reaction if they questioned thet tobacco research. Later, as national attention stirred, a faculty panel put in place by Trani recommended against such future pacts. I also blogged on this site about the controversy.

    Well, this month, Richmond magazine has a cover on Trani. To wit:

    “On hearing the comments of a local blogger, describing his administrative atmosphere as “Neo-Stalinist,” Trani tilts his head as if playing Name That Tune and names the writer instead. “Is that Galuszka,” he guesses correctly, naming a contributor to the Bacon’s Rebellion blog, Peter Galuszka.

    “He doesn’t even now what neo-Stanlinist is!” Trani replies with a touch of amusement “I do! That’s my field!” (He is, in fact, an expert in Russian history).

    My, but Trani does have a long memory. He’s wrong, however, about me not knowing what neo-Stalinist is. I first visited the Soviet Union as a college student in 1971 and spent years studying the language. I later spent a total of six years in the 1980s and 1990s there as an American news correspondent, some of which involved me being followed around or phone tapped by KGB officials. I probably have more time on the ground in Russia than Trani does. As for him being a Russian history expert, perhaps, but as part of my job I spent lots of time talking with academics, economists and Russian officials, including Boris Yeltsin. I never heard Trani’s name but look forward to reading some of his books.

    Anyway, Trani’s getting some payback. His legacy is important but highly mixed.

    Peter Galuszka

  • From Cassandra to Sage

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    Finally, Marleen Durfee has prevailed. The peppy, fast-talking, middle-aged woman is seeing what she warned about becoming reality and looks forward to a brighter day. For most of this decade, the Pennsylvania native has harangued the Chesterfield Board of Supervisors about their mindlessly pro-growth development policies. And now, the turkeys have come home to roost.


    We met for a story I wrote for Richmond’s Style Weekly about how a perfect storm of extremely tight financing, bad planning and steadily shifting demographics is starting to make profound changes in how suburban growth is emerging in the Capital area, if not in the rest of the country.

    Huge megaprojects such as the 4,600 house Branner Station project in eastern Chesterfield have come to an abrupt halt. Three more in eastern Henrico are delayed, as is the Roseland megaproject in western Chesterfield.

    The icing on the cake, however, is Magnolia Green, a southwestern Chesterfield megaproject on the books for 20 years. The project which would project more exurbia mess even farther down the crowded Hull Street corridor struck financing shoals. When an auction was held last month to sell off a half-built golf course and lots for most of the project’s 4,886 homes, there were no bidders. About three dozen or so homes have been built in piney woods of unbuilt roads and unpoured concrete.

    Since 2000, Durfee has acted as a self-styled watchdog on out of control growth. “Residential is a big drain on society and the board of supervisors didn’t understand this. They thought that building more homes paid for itself,” she told me in a restaurant’s outdoor patio.

    Durfee had been a professional activist against drunk driving and worked in Pennsylvania and Lousiana before moving to Chesterfield County in 1986. She used some of her experience in her field on growth policies when she realized was was happening with Chesterfield. “There used to be 20 temporary buildings to handle school overcapacity. Now they are 200,” he says. Police coverage is stretched much more thinly than the public realizes. When a new high school is built, catch-up style, it is almost immediately at full capacity.

    How come? A lot of it has to do with history and the political culture of Chesterfield County, which at more than 400 square miles is almost twice the size of Henrico, Richmond’s other big suburban county. Back in the 1950s, state road planners put Interstate 64 through Henrico, not Chesterfield, giving Henrico a better tax base because it provided commercial nodes for development at every cloverleaf.

    Chesterfield, meanwhile, was stuck in its sleepy Southern-style way of doing business. Elected officials were good old boys and girls who made a fetish about being “Chesterfield-born” and were sops for every development project that came down the pike. Trouble was, their proud insularity made them woefully ignorant of suburban growth and in the 1990s on, they made stupid decision after stupid decision.

    The good old boy and girl crowd never got the math that houses can’t pay for their demands on services. For that you need extra retail and industry. They never considered how dependent upon cars the residential projects they approved were, leading to a host of other problems, such as more street congestion, more air pollution, longer commuting times, and even, according to a recent American Pediatric Association study, a new generation of fat children.

    Durfee, often put down as a Yankee “come here” by professional Southerners, says she got involved in “smart growth” policies after consulting her twin brother, who is an urban planner. She attended scores of planning and board of supervisors meetings, endured insults that she was a stupid meddler and faced the wrath of Realtors, builders and other parts of housing-industrial complex. For a number of years, Chesterfield’s board acted as anything but a democratic institution. Citizens asking tough questions at public meetings were routinely shouted down and put down and in one case, arrested after refusing to obey orders to shut up.

    “I would go meetings think they’d be pro-active, but they were using outdated plans from 1989 to 1991. They just didn’t understand, Durfee says. Magnolia Green, for instance, was approved for rezoning in 1991 and like many projects in Chesterfield, sat dormant for years.

    Superviors did not heed long-term predictions that the demographic patterns that favored Chesterfield’s family-oriented growth patterns in the 1980s and 1990s were coming to an abrupt halt now. Baby boomers who wanted the house and lot and land for their kids now aren’t willing to upsize after their kids move on. The kids themselves tend not to want big, single family houses on big lots, preferring smaller units closer to urban centers.

    The result, according to Chesterfield’s planning deparment, is that the county has about 50,000 rezoned lots not yet built upon. That’s more than the rest of suburban Richmond combined and exceeds even the number in Loudoun County, once the nation’s fastest-growing suburban area. Builders complain that a lot of these rezoned lots are in places where people don’t want to live, ignoring the fact that they were cheerleaders for rezoning back in the day. And, due to peculiarities in state law, it is very hard to downzone upzoned property. So who knows what will happen to places such as Magnolia Green.

    As for Durfee, she prevailed in 2007 elections and won a supervisor’s position in a tight, four-candidate race. She says that the county is upgrading its comprehensive plan and for the first time in decades will look at growth on a holistic, rather than piecemeal, basis. And for someone treated like the County Idiot for many years, she’s suddenly looking pretty savvy.

    Peter Galuszka

  • ADDICTED TO AUTONOMOBILES

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    ADDICTION TO AUTONOMOBILES – AND THE SETTLEMENT PATTERN THAT AUTONOMOBILES SPAWN – IS THE DRIVING FORCE COLLAPSING A SOCIETY THAT HAS BECOME DEPENDENT ON LARGE, PRIVATE VEHICLES FOR MOBILITY AND ACCESS.

    General Motors filed for bankruptcy yesterday. This is only the latest in a string of events that document how the Autonomobile Industrial Complex in the US of A is suffering.

    How can one explain why some of the largest and most revered Enterprises on the Planet got to this place? (See “Inexhaustible Icon: GM Has Left Its Brand on the Cultural Landscape” in today’s Wapo.)

    The simple answer is:

    • Households that can AFFORD a new Large, Private Vehicle already have one – or two or three. Not only that but many new cars have three or four years of free maintenance and a 100,000 mile warranty. If one lost 40% of their shelter ‘investment’ and 60% of their retirement nest egg in the past year, why would they buy a new car?

    • Households who NEED a new vehicle cannot afford one now that loans do not grow on trees. What those Households NEED is a small efficient vehicle. They ALSO NEED settlement patterns that require far less driving. (See German / American comparison noted below.)

    No major Autonomobile Enterprise is offering vehicles that match citizen needs and Agencies, Enterprises and Institutions are not yet evolving functional settlement patterns.

    What manner of a Enterprise strategy results in a whole industry sector selling themselves out of a market?

    The one that comes to mind is aggressive drug cartels. Sell, sell, sell – push the product until there is almost one left who is not addicted and broke or already has a big stash.

    Autonomobile Enterprises have acted exactly like drug cartels. With the help of Agencies (voters LOVE Large, Private Vehicles so long as they do not have to pay the full cost) and workers (unions LOVE high wages), Autonomobile Enterprises have addicted five generations of citizens to cheap energy and big, status-establishing / ego-messaging Autonomobiles.

    These Autonomobiles demand a disaggregated and dysfunctional settlement patterns to operate.

    After 90 years of selling four wheeled drugs, there is no alternative for Mobility and Access for the majority of Americans.

    When the economy hit a rough patch due to dependence on unsustainable growth, unsustainable debt and Mass OverConsumption, citizens found themselves without any need for a new car and / or trapped with settlement patterns that are the inevitable result of Autonomobile dependence.

    Bottom line: Citizens of the US of A are addicted to Autonomobiles. (See again US of A / German comparison below)

    Many citizens are coming to grips with the reality that they and their Organization have:

    1. Created a Global Financial System that has turned investment into gambling

    2. Fueled a feeding frenzy that resulted in the Wrong Size House / Wrong Location Shelter Implosion

    3. Paid no attention to the imbalance of trade, the widening Wealth Gap or unsustainable debt – public and private.

    4. Championed Mass OverConsumption funded by depletion of Natural Capital

    In their May newsletter, Ecocities Emerging’s Kirsten Miller makes a nice case for Autonomobiles being “The Sacred Cow of consumption.” (EMR would say the Sacred Cow of Mass OverConsumption) Ms. Miller uses the impact of the Tata mini in India as a jumping off place.

    Icons that are ‘sacred’ normally reside in the Social Sphere. The addiction to Autonomobiles is also an Economic Sphere catastrophe and a Physical Sphere impossibility. (See The Large, Private Vehicle Mobility Myth.)

    Citizens need smaller, more durable, more easily repaired and FAR more fuel efficient vehicles to bridge the gap until settlement patterns evolve to require fewer vehicles of any kind.

    That is not what the current administration is betting on to recover the billions it has invested in GM. They are talking about slightly less consumptive vehicles and no Fundamental Transformation of the settlement pattern. (See today’s WaPo headline: “U. S. Bets Billions on GM’s Resurgence. Also see the two stories under the full page banner headline: “Flickers of Hope for U. S. Economy Belie the Distance From Recovery” and “Obama Unveils Plan for Brief Bankruptcy, Nationalization.”

    For a very good summary of why the US of A did not have to get into this predicament see the April 2009 study from Brookings “Making Transportation Sustainable: Insights from Germany.”
    The report documents how the US of A could have used far less land for urban land uses and created a far smaller ecological footprint with increased quality of life for all – including the 12.5 Percenters.

    The question is: Is it too late to obtain a sustainable trajectory? Without Fundamental Transformation of settlement patterns, conditions will only get worse.

    The expectations are unrealistic. On the day GM filed for bankruptcy that gambling venue call the NY Stock Exchange jumped over 200 points on rumors and shadows. (See WaPo story above “Flickers of Hope…”

    Oil is up again on the hope that consumption will increase.

    There is also hope of economic recovery is based such solid indicators of economic rebound as a rise in the Indian stock market last week. That is not a reflection of the Blackfeet and the Sioux selling more cattle, it is the response to an election in India that some think will allow the citizens of India to ride the Tiger a little longer.

    Irony of irony’s is that for every recession since WW II selling cars and houses has been the cure for economic pain. Now they are the root cause of the Great Recession (See Steven Mufson’s story “Once a Recession Remedy, GM’s Empire Falls” in today’s Wapo.

    EMR

Now Available

Book cover of 'Dust Mites: A Second American Revolution' by James A. Bacon, featuring astronauts planting a flag with a blue and white emblem on a lunar landscape, with Earth visible in the background.
For sale on Amazon.com

The year: 2075. The American colonies on the Moon are getting restless under Washington’s tyrannical rule….

This second edition of “Dust Mites” has a snazzy new cover, includes helpful lunar maps, and is 5,000 words tighter than the original. The sequel, “Trogs,” is scheduled for publication this summer.

Advertisement

Advertisement

Advertisement

Advertisement

About

Bacon’s Rebellion is Virginia’s leading politically non-aligned portal for news, opinions and analysis about state, regional and local public policy. Read more about us here.

Fund the Rebellion

Shake up the status quo! Your contributions will be used to pay for faster download speeds and grow readership. Make a one-time donation by credit card or contribute a small sum monthly.

Can’t wait until tomorrow

For your Bacon’s Rebellion fix?

Enter your email address to receive immediate notifications of new posts by email.

SUBSCRIBE

Search Bacon’s Rebellion

Categories

Archives

The Jefferson Council

Protecting Thomas Jefferson’s Legacy at the University of Virginia

Forgot Your Password?

Shoot me an email and I’ll generate a new password for you.

Latest