• Who Lost B&W?

    McDermott International Inc. has announced plans to spin off its Babcock & Wilcox subsidiary, which designs and builds nuclear reactors for power plants and the U.S. Navy, and move the corporate headquarters from Lynchburg to Charlotte, N.C.

    The relocation will involve fewer than a dozen employees, leaving some 2,400 employees in the Lynchburg area unaffected. But the loss could prove to be more than symbolic. The employees making the move presumably will be highly compensated senior executives. They will require high-end office space, they will support their new community philanthropically and, one can only assume, they will hire the support staff required to run a publicly traded company. That office space, that philanthropic support and those jobs will go to Charlotte, not to Virginia.

    It is understandable that a publicly traded company, as the new J. Ray McDermott International S.A., will be, would want to locate a headquarters facility in a city providing easy access to legal, financial, accounting and other talent. But that talent is readily available in nearby Richmond or Northern Virginia, both the home to numerous corporations the size of McDermott. Were either of those two locations considered? Was anyone in the state economic development community aware of the decision? Did Virginia communities ever have a chance to pitch McDermott? Is there anyone to hold accountable for this lost opportunity?

    I have posted in the past on Virginia’s opportunity to grow a powerful nuclear-power industry cluster around the presence of B&W and Areva in Lynchburg, the Northrup Grumman shipyard in Newport News, Dominion in Richmond, North America’s largest uranium deposits in Pittsylvania County, and access to nuclear regulatory authorities in the Washington, D.C., area. In that regard, Virginia has far more to offer than North Carolina. A year or two ago, Sen. Ken Cuccinelli, since elected Attorney General, showed a strong interest in the idea of leveraging Virginia’s nuclear expertise into more economic development — he and I chatted briefly and exchanged some email correspondence on the subject. But I never sense a glimmer of interest from anyone else. And that, sadly, includes the Kaine administration.

    Claiming the corporate headquarters of a publicly traded company whose main business is nuclear power would have highlighted Virginia’s role as a leader in the nuclear industry — all the more because of B&W’s leadership in that industry. In June the company announced the development of a small nuclear reactor, which could make it possible to bring nuclear power online in smaller, less expensive increments. The company described it as a “potential game changer for the global nuclear market.”

    The loss of the headquarters won’t change where the design work takes place, which, I presume, is Lynchburg. But the announcements, the glory and much of the deal-making will come out of North Carolina. Consider the McDermott-H.Q. episode as a lost opportunity. Also count it as one more defeat in the long-running competition between the Tarheels and the Cavaliers. Our record doesn’t look much better in economic development that it does in basketball.


  • Virginia Corrections Could Use Some Correcting

    Virginia’s prison system is one of the biggest budget-busters in state government. Expenditures have doubled over the past eight years to about $1.25 billion. I’m all in favor of putting the crooks in jail — and keeping them there. But that doesn’t mean we can’t do a better job of running the system.

    One very simple reform could save millions of dollars. As pointed out by Pat Nolan in the current edition of the Bacon’s Rebellion newsletter (published by the Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy):

    For instance, almost 10 percent of new admissions to Virginiaโ€™s prisons havenโ€™t committed a new crime. They have merely broken the rules of their supervision. Many of these offenders are just knuckleheads who donโ€™t follow the rules. They donโ€™t turn in paperwork, or miss an appointment with their parole officer or test dirty for drugs. Of course we want them to follow the rules, but at $28,000 per prison bed per year, it is very costly โ€“ and counterproductive โ€“ to send these โ€˜technical violatorsโ€™ back to prison.

    It is far more effective, and costs much less, to administer quick, certain and short consequences for breaking the rules. In Hawaii, Project Hope enforces the rules of probation with immediate consequences. If offenders have a dirty urinalysis they are immediately jailed โ€“ but not for years, just 24 or 48 hours. The result: reduced โ€˜dirtyโ€™ drug tests by 91 percent and a drop in both revocations and new arrests by two-thirds. This program accomplishes what we want โ€“ teaching offenders to follow the rules and keeping addicts in drug treatment โ€“ without filling the prisons.

    Nolan, who leads the prison reform arm of Prison Fellowship, describes the efforts of other states to bring their correctional budgets under control. As Gov.-elect Bob McDonnell looks for ways to close a $1 billion+ budget gap next year, the correctional system is a logical place to look for savings.

    Speaking of Virginia prisons, Reason magazine had this to say about the ban on moking in state prisons. Without cigarettes, what will prisoners use as a means of exchange?

  • Rethinking Nuclear Power

    Flash back 30 years and review the mood about nuclear power. Hollywood had just come out with its prescient anti-nuke film “The China Syndrome” with such A-list actors as Jack Lemmon, Jane Fonda and Michael Douglas. Just a few months later, a real meltdown did occur at the Three Mile Island commercial plant in Pennsylvania.
    Here in Virginia, yours truly was a reporter at The Virginian-Pilot investigating Vepco’s Surry Nuclear Station, which resulted in a front page article with two full inside pages of text. At the time, Vepco’s badly managed nuclear program had earned the highest level of federal safety fines ever.
    So, it was an eerie sense of deja vu that I was being escorted around at Dominion’s (formerly Vepco’s) North Anna nuclear station for an article I was researching in Style Weekly. Dominion officials seemed willing to let a photographer and I see just about everything. Underlying the post 9/11 trauma, from time to time tough-looking men in black flak jackets and evil looking assault rifles sauntered about.
    Dominion is considering adding a third unit at North Anna. It needs about 4,600 extra megawatts of power over the next decade or so, thanks in part to the extra heavy loads that the ordinary household demands for our cell phones, desktops, big screen televisions, Wii games, iPods, among other devices. Another issue is that big search engine firms such as Google plan huge server farms in Northern Virginia which is a switching center for half of the Internet traffic in the U.S. The server farms are huge electron hogs.
    Another reason is that Its North Anna and Surry units are 1970s vintage, like most of the 104 operating reactors in the U.S. Utilities are scrambling to upgrade aging units while some 17 power companies, including Dominion, are planning 21 new units with newly-designed reactors that may reflect three decades worth of technical improvements. Dominion has applied for a license for North Anna Unit Three and is considering bids from six reactor builders with a winner expected by this spring.
    One plus is that as environmentalists concerned about greenhouse gases decry new coal-fired
    generation, nukes seem to be getting a clean bill of health globally. Unlike coal, the nukes don’t emit much in the the way of carbon dioxide and that has changed the minds of some ecologists around the world, according to a piece in The Washington Post.
    True, experts among nuclear critics point out that nuke’s still have a lot of unsolved issues, such as where to permanently dispose of the extremely toxic waste fuel that is now kept on plant sites. And while there hasn’t been a Chernobyl-style accident since 1986, there have been some near misses.
    A notable one had its roots in 2001 when the Nuclear Regulatory Commission decided to delay inspections of the Davis-Besse nuclear plant on the shores of Lake Erie in Ohio. In March 2002, an inspection revealed that boric acid had almost eaten through the 6.5 inch thick pressure vessel enclosing the 32-year-old reactor owned by FirstEnergy of Akron.
    Had inspections been delayed by another five to 12 months, the vessel would have been completely breached, causing a loss of coolant accident similar to Three Mile Island. Fixing it took two years and $600 million. The NRC rated the incident as one of 10 that could have resulted in a TMI-style disaster.
    For Dominion, which has greatly cleaned up its nuclear program since the Vepco days, the biggest hurdle is cost. Utility officials won’t give a price estimate for Unit Three but experts believe it might be about $8 billion.
    That’s a much bigger price tag than Dominion’s highly controversial $1.5 billion Wise County coal-fired plant although it will generate 585 megawatts or about half the power.
    Given the complexity and lingering potential for a radioactive disaster, few investment banks are willing to fund multi-billion dollar nuclear stations without federal loan guarantees. Congress did grant $18.5 billion for such guarantees in 2005 but that’s only enough for about four new nukes nationwide. But 17 electric utilities have applied for the guarantees to build 21 new reactors at a cost totaling $188 billion, or many times what Congress originally provided for.
    Dominion had been considering a reactor design by GE Hitachi called an ESBWR, but talks broke down early this year. Dominion opened up bidding from six reactor makers, including the firm Areva, which is owned by the French government and has a big Virginia footprint in Lynchburg and Newport News. But the delay meant that Dominion was not included in the first four reactors that were picked in May from across the country to get the federal loan guarantees. That’s a major setback.
    Critics have long noted that commercial nuclear power has a lot of hidden costs and trip wires. The loan guarantee issue is just one of them. Much of the development cost of developing nukes has been hidden in Defense Department budgets that funded early reactors in Chicago and at arms plants such as Hanford and Savannah River. Many of today’s reactor designs still are pretty much based on Navy submarine and aircraft carrier reactors originally developed when the testy Adm Hyman Rickover was in charge. And commercial nukes could never have gone forward back in the 1950s and 60s without the Price Anderson Act which capped liabilities for utilities that had an accident at $560 million.
    Gov. Time Kaine has noted that nuclear power could play a key role in the state’s energy future. Curiously, GOPers like Bob McDonnell would rather play their Sarah Palin card of “Drill Here, Drill Now,” regarding offshore oil development when nukes seem a much surer bet since they’ve been int he state since the early 1970s while offshore oil is still highly speculative.
    True, nukes have a lot of dangers. But if the concerns of global warming are as serious as so many believe, they do deserve another look.
    Peter Galuszka

  • Going Vertical


    Being a “pro-business” state, Virginia typically follows trends in business. So, it will be interesting indeed if the Old Dominion follows this new trend.

    This morning’s Wall Street Journal has an intriguing front page story about how big businesses are retreating from the decentralized, outsourcing model that had been in vogue for a few decades. In its place, big companies are sparking renewed interest in the traditional, vertically-integrated approach in which the firms control the supply, the production, the marketing, the sales, and the planning.
    The latest advocate is Larry Ellison, CEO of Oracle who wants to buy Sun Microsystems. He plans to make it “vertically integrated” firm that produces software, computers and computer components.
    Other firms retreating to the 100-year-old corporate model include PepsiCo, General Motors, Arcelor Mittal and Boeing. Pepsi wants to buy back a lot of bottlers and Arcelor is moving back into the raw materials business by buying mines in Brazil, Russia and the U.S.
    What’s with this return to the Andre Carnegie days? It seems that with the downturn, companies no longer can rely on de-verticalization and outsourcing. Bad times have made it harder for first, second and third tier suppliers and producers to operate. They are very short of cash and credit and can’t meet obligations.
    For a prime example, look at Boeing. Its upcoming Dreamliner passenger jet is supposed to set the market for commercial aircraft for years to come. But following management styles du jour, Boeing has outsourced making parts for the plane through a highly complex and far-flung global network of independent suppliers. These firms haven’t made the mark. The Dreamliner has faced delay after delay.
    What has all this got to do with Virginia? Mind set, that’s what.
    When I returned to the state in 2000 after and 18-year-long departure, I noted that outsourcing, privatizing and minimizing governments roles had become a mantra. It wasn’t a political clan thing. It didn’t matter if you were George Allen or Jim Gilmore or Mark Warner or Tim Kaine. Everything was outsourced, including trimming vegetation on the sides of highways, operating roads, and upgrading and running the state’s IT system. Everything that is, except for operating the state’s ABC stores.
    In fact, privatization became a kind of church liturgy that you recite without really thinking about it means. That’s what got us in the VITA/Northrop Grumman mess with huge cost overruns and lousy service.
    With its budget woes, the state will be hard-pressed to follow the corporate trend into vertical integration. Another problem is that considering that the state might run things as well or better than private enterprise is political heresy. A lot of the dinosaurs who run the place or write for this b log will harumph and continue their laud of Thomas Jefferson and limited government.
    Unfortunately, that’s the way it is. But don’t forget, back in the founding years, had TJ gotten his way we would not be a big, powerful country today. We’d be a nation of small farms and shops, sort of like Holland.
    Peter Galuszka

  • The Science is Now Un-Settled

    Back in early 2008, Gov. Timothy M. Kaine launched a commission to study the impact of Global Warming on Virginia. “Gone are the days of debating whether man-made effects exist,” he said. “Those days are gone.”

    Well, it turns out those days are back. And one of the central figures in reopening the debate is none other than Patrick Michaels, the environmental scientist and former state climatologist whom Kaine defrocked from his post. (I covered these events when they happened. Type “Patrick Michaels” into the search box to read my commentary.)

    In what is fast exploding into the greatest scientific scandal of the decade, a large volume of email correspondence and other documents have been either hacked or leaked from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) at the East Anglia University in the United Kingdom. The CRU is the keeper of the world’s most extensive data files tracking temperatures across the globe and back in time. Its data formed the basis for the United Nation’s 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the report before which anthropogenic Global Warming advocates bow, scrape and genuflect as holy writ.

    The hacked/leaked emails contain extraordinary material suggesting that the keepers of the data massaged the data until it yielded the results they wanted, stonewalled Freedom of Information Act requests to access the data, and sought to marginalize Global Warming skeptics by keeping them out of peer refereed scientific journals. It’s as if an archaeologist had stumbled across a cave in the Holy Land and unearthed documents proving that ancient scribes had tampered with the Gospel of Mark to support their theological views.

    One of the most vilified figures in the email correspondence is none other than Patrick Michaels, a leading skeptic of human-caused Global Warming. As one of the GW high priests said, “Next time I see Pat Michaels at a scientific meeting, I’ll be tempted to beat the crap out of him.”

    The CRU has put out the story that its computers were hacked, thus casting a pall of illegitimacy upon those who would use the documents to criticize the institute, but it’s entirely possible that they were leaked. In truth, the story has been brewing for a long time. In September, Michaels wrote a column in National Review, “The Dog Ate Global Warming,” in which he described the lengthy and unsuccessful efforts over several years of GW skeptics to obtain the CRU’s data . CRU officials gave a variety of reasons for refusing to cooperate. Then one of them confided to a University of Colorado scientist:

    Since the 1980s, we have merged the data we have received into existing series or begun new ones, so it is impossible to say if all stations within a particular country or if all of an individual record should be freely available. Data storage availability in the 1980s meant that we were not able to keep the multiple sources for some sites, only the station series after adjustment for homogeneity issues. We, therefore, do not hold the original raw data but only the value-added (i.e., quality controlled and homogenized) data.

    As Michaels observed then, two months before the scandal broke, “If we are to believe Jones’s note to the younger Pielke, CRU adjusted the original data and then lost or destroyed them over twenty years ago. “

    Apparently, he wasn’t far off the mark. One of the most damaging of the 3,600 documents revealed in what the blogs are calling Climategate is one entitled “HARRY_READ_ME.txt” composed by an unknown computer programmer (presumably named Harry) who spent three years trying to debug the computer code at the core of the CRU’s climate model. Declan McCullagh with CBS, who has done the best MSM reporting I’ve read so far, reports some of the more damaging statements regarding how the database incorporated data from temperature reading stations:

    I am seriously worried that our flagship gridded data product is produced by Delaunay triangulation – apparently linear as well. As far as I can see, this renders the station counts totally meaningless. … I am very sorry to report that the rest of the databases seem to be in nearly as poor a state as Australia was. There are hundreds if not thousands of pairs of dummy stations. … There truly is no end in sight… So, we can have a proper result, but only by including a load of garbage! …

    One thing that’s unsettling is that many of the assigned WMo codes for Canadian stations do not return any hits with a web search. … Makes me wonder if these are long-discontinued, or were even invented somewhere other than Canada! …

    Knowing how long it takes to debug this suite – the experiment endeth here. The option (like all the anomdtb options) is totally undocumented so we’ll never know what we lost. … Right, time to stop pussyfooting around the niceties of Tim’s labyrinthine software suites – let’s have a go at producing CRU TS 3.0! since failing to do that will be the definitive failure of the entire project. …

    Ulp! I am seriously close to giving up, again. The history of this is so complex that I can’t get far enough into it before my head hurts and I have to stop. Each parameter has a tortuous history of manual and semi-automated interventions that I simply cannot just go back to early versions and run the update prog. …

    Right now, defenders of the GW orthodoxy are conceding that the emails are embarrassing but don’t change the overwhelming evidence in support of anthropogenic global warming. That, of course, is total nonsense. The scandal changes everything. The CRU data undergirds the U.N.’s IPCC report, which is widely regarded as the final word on the “consensus” view of Global Warming. If the data has been corrupted — or, worse, deliberately tampered with — the temperature reconstructions of this critical document are worthless. This development, combined with the truly inconvenient truth that, against all expectations, global temperatures have remained flat for the past decade, has thrown the GW debate wide open.

    I warned some time ago, and I repeat my warning now, that Virginians who believe in the necessity of Fundamental Change in human settlement patterns should not rest their case on Global Warming. There are many good reasons for supporting Fundamental Change — rising energy costs, pollution caused by the extraction and combustion of fossil fuels, and dependency upon foreign oil — for moving toward a more energy-efficient society. In recent years, those entirely legitimate reasons have faded into the background as the enthusiasm for saving the world from Global Warming has become the animating force — witness Tim Kaine’s commission on climate change. The danger is this: If GW orthodoxy is descredited in the public mind, so, too, is the need to reform human settlement patterns. And that would be a public policy disaster of the first order.

  • COMMENTS ON GREEN METROPOLIS

    The โ€œREAD IT NOWโ€ post is long so here is a place to comment on David Owenโ€™s book Green Metropolis: Why living Smaller, Living Closer, and Driving Less Are the Keys to Sustainability.

    It would be most constructive if comments here were focused on what you learned from actually reading the book.

    EMR


  • READ IT NOW — THREE PART ANALYSIS

    David Owenโ€™s book Green Metropolis: Why Living Smaller, Living Closer, and Driving Less Are the Keys to Sustainability is a very important book.

    Owenโ€™s book kicks open the portals to information and understandings that citizens must embrace if they are to evolve a sustainable trajectory for civilization.

    Not since 1961 when Jane Jacobs published The Death and Life of Great American Cities has there been a more important, powerful and accessible new source of information and understanding of sustainable, functional human settlement patterns. Given the enormous impact of Jacobโ€™s work โ€“ a recent poll of planning and development professionals anointed Jacobs the number one Urban thinker of ALL TIME โ€“ Owenโ€™s book is a MUST READ NOW. See End Note One

    1. The web site Planetizen.com recently conducted a pole on Urban thinkers. Jacobs came in number one among the 100 top vote getters. The Planetizen (The Planning and Development Network) list is fascinating. Chris Alexander is 3rd (well deserved), William H Whyte 9th (ditto), Richard Florida 29th (moving on up) and Henry Ford 100.th AntiUrban Henry Ford should tie with Frank Lloyd Wright, but then the bottom of this list is NOT a list of the โ€˜worstโ€™ Urban thinkers in fact some of the โ€˜worstโ€™ rank higher than Ford โ€“ for example, Bucky Fuller and Le Corbusier.

    The more important question is: Where are Aristotle, Christaller, Doxiadis and many, many others that SHOULD be in the top 100? Well over half the most important Urban / human settlement pattern thinkers quoted in The Shape of the Future are not present even though the author worked for, met or read the work of over 80 percent of the 100 thinkers on the list. One reason, there is extensive representation of those who have recently and loudly embraced New Urbanism.

    This review is presented in three Parts:

    โ€ข Summary of Owenโ€™s most important insights
    โ€ข Four Tragic Flaws that obscure the importance of Owenโ€™s perspectives
    โ€ข Three milestones on the path to a sustainable civilization that Owenโ€™s work can facilitate

    PART ONE: OWENโ€™S IMPORTANT INSIGHTS

    There is no question of the importance and accessibility of Owenโ€™s work. Phil Langdon a well read Urban advocate and author calls the book โ€œriveting and fiercely intelligent.โ€ At the same time, Jonathan Yardley WaPoโ€™s emeritus literary omnivore says the book is โ€œcool, understated and witty.โ€ In summary, Green Metropolis: Why Living Smaller, Living Closer, and Driving Less Are the Keys to Sustainability is a monumental, yet accessible source of information for citizens. See End Note Two

    2. In the course of just 324 pages Owen touches on most of the topics that EMR covers in nearly 3,400 in The Shape of the Future and TRILO-G. And while EMR is often critical of WaPo โ€“ credit where credit is due โ€“ EMR first saw a reference to this book the WaPo book review by Jonathan Yardley mentioned above and in End Note Seven. EMR is also critical of short, simple non-fiction books but that is another story explored in TRILO-G, PART FOURTEEN โ€“ RESOURCES โ€“ Chapter 51

    Owens core thesis is this:

    Human settlement patterns control the future course of civilization because per capita energy consumption and per capita goods consumption are directly related the pattern and density of land use at the Alpha Community and SubRegional scales.

    As readers familiar with the work of SYNERGY might guess, Owen does NOT use those words but that is what he means. More on that later.

    In six short chapters Owen lays out an overwhelmingly case for Fundamental Transformations to reflect reality:

    Chapter One (โ€œMore like Manhattanโ€) presents the authorโ€™s core thesis.

    Chapter Two (โ€œLiquid Civilizationโ€) makes the case that oil IS 20th century civilization. Oil has peaked and so the 21st century must embrace a new basis for society, hopefully, one that is sustainable. Without the overwrought hype of the Dark Greens and the Dooms Day Peak Oilers, Owen uses EROEI (Energy Returned On Energy Invested) to document that there are NO cheap substitutes for fossil-based hydro carbon energy (aka, Natural Capital). Further, there are not many expensive ones that are feasible replacements when it comes to human settlement pattern dispersal (aka, Mobility and Access). This is the same conclusion SYNERGY reached in โ€œTimberfence Truth or Consequences.โ€

    Chapter Three (โ€œThere and Backโ€) explores a number of examples of humans debilitating dependence on Autonomobiles. Owen focuses on the scale of fossil fuel consumption and the over dependence on Autonomobiles for Mobility and Access due to scatteration of Urban activities.

    Chapter Four (โ€œThe Great Outdoorsโ€) pokes holes in the many of the false assumptions and Myths that humanโ€™s cherish concerning access to, and use of, Openspace and Open Land. A major theme is human isolation from Open Space and Openland due to the Autonomobile.

    Chapter Five (โ€œEmbodied Efficiencyโ€) returns to the main theme. Owens corrects common misconceptions about โ€˜embedded energyโ€™ in Urban environments and uses the concept of โ€œEmbodied Efficiencyโ€ to focus attention on locational and spacial relationships. He dismantles the fallacious assumption that Urban areas are the โ€˜causeโ€™ of Mass OverConsumption of resources.

    Most of the resources are โ€˜usedโ€™ IN Urban areas because the vast majority of human economic, social and physical activity ARE LOCATED THERE. However. the per capita consumption is LOWER in high intensity Urban areas than in alternative settlement pattern configurations used to carry out Urban activities.

    Chapter Six (โ€œThe Shape of Things to Comeโ€) provides vivid sketches of settlement pattern dysfunction in several Chinese Regions and in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Owen uses these places to document and illustrate why the current settlement pattern trajectory is unsustainable. (Who could NOT like a chapter titled โ€œthe shape of things to come?โ€)

    What is most important and most impressive is that in a short book Owen โ€“ based on his personal experience, reinforced by research โ€“ NAILS TO THE WALL many of the Myths, misconceptions and incorrect conventional wisdom concerning human settlement patterns. See End Note Three.

    3. EMR agrees with almost all of Owenโ€™s observations but it is not clear that all of Owenโ€™s statements can be proven as stated in the book. Owenโ€™s thesis concerning per capita consumption was first published in The New Yorker in 2004. Much of his work has also appeared in this magazine. As a writer for The New Yorker his work SHOULD have been fact checked well. Only time will tell if some of the statements will have to be modified or more precisely defined, stated and documented. With a book as important as this, being able to support every statement is critical.

    Like John McPhee, Malcolm Gladwell, and Bill McKibben, Owen is a long time The New Yorker employee. All four are great โ€˜story tellers.โ€™ The limitations of story tellers is addressed in Chapter 2 of The Shape of the Future in the context of the writing of John McPhee. McPhee is a superb storyteller who has brilliantly illuminated topics BUT ONLY AFTER THERE IS A OVERARCHING CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK. This issue is again addressed in Chapters 36 and 51 of TRILO-G and further explored under the Fatal Flaw Number Two โ€“ Lack of a comprehensive Conceptual Framework โ€“ later in this review.

    The misconceptions and Myths illuminated by Owen are relied on by citizens when they make decisions in the voting booth and in the marketplace. The cumulative impact of these badly informed decisions drive dysfunctional human settlement pattern. These are the actions that constitute THE ROOTS OF THE HELTER SKELTER CRISIS, PART ONE of TRILO-G and result in an unsustainable trajectory of contemporary civilization by every rational measure of societal performance and resource consumption.

    Green Metropolis: Why Living Smaller, Living Closer, and Driving Less Are the Keys to Sustainability clearly documents that it is NOT JUST:

    โ€ข โ€˜Freeways,โ€™ ByPasses, โ€˜freeโ€™ parking, strip centers, Big Boxes, it is NOT JUST

    โ€ข Subdivision monocultures, it is NOT JUST

    โ€ข Greedy speculators, monopoly Enterprises, subservient (Enterprise owned) MainStream Media, OR EVEN

    โ€ข Inept (much less corrupt) governance practitioners

    that drive settlement pattern dysfunction.

    IT IS ALSO NOT JUST endemic xenophobia, or the genetic proclivities underlying human obsessions with:

    โ€ข Physical separation
    โ€ข Short grass
    โ€ข Status seeking driven by advertising
    โ€ข Monetized (aka, โ€œCheapโ€) culture / society OR EVEN
    โ€ข Foods laced with salt, sugar and fat

    that generate dysfunctional human settlement patterns. See End Note Four

    4. See The Shape of the Future and TRILO-G for a summary of all these drivers of dysfunction. For recent summaries of the genetic proclivities underlying dysfunctions driven by unhealthy food and โ€˜cheap societyโ€ see Shell, Ellen Ruppel, Cheap: The High Cost of Discount Culture and Kessler, David, The End of Overeating: Taking Control of the Insatiable American Appetite.

    Owen carefully dismantles common Green Myths and puts a bright light on Green Greed as exemplified by overselling of replacement windows, photovoltaic arrays and, residential wind turbans. Green Greed also infests ads for florescent bulbs by Home Depot and Wal*Mart and the ads, web sites and Institutions supported by Green Washers โ€“ those who profit from citizens hoping to buy their way out of Green Guilt.

    Going far beyond Green Greed, Green Washers and Green Guilt, Owen demonstrates that AS CURRENTLY DESIGNED AND IMPLEMENTED the drivers of settlement pattern dysfunction ALSO include:

    โ€ข Hybrid, electric and other fuel efficient vehicles

    โ€ข Off-grid / simple living, recycling, eating local and green gadgets

    โ€ข Roadway improvements and congestion mitigation

    โ€ข Creation and expansion of shared-vehicle systems (including Commuter rail, light rail, trolley, bus rapid transit (BRT) and radial extensions of heavy rail (METRO)

    โ€ข Green buildings in dysfunctional locations (especially those with LEED certifications)

    โ€ข New Urbanist projects in dysfunctional locations

    โ€ข New sources of โ€˜cleanโ€™ energy such as โ€˜clean coal,โ€™ โ€˜low carbon natural gas,โ€™ hydrogen and โ€˜safe nuclearโ€™

    โ€ข Many conservation initiatives such as conservation easements, agricultural and forestall districts and green infrastructure.

    โ€ข And other sacred cows of those who want to believe that there MUST be easy / techno paths to being green โ€“ especially Bright Green

    Owen is not saying these drivers of dysfunctional are INHERENTLY bad but that AS CURRENTLY IMPLEMENTED, these โ€˜solutionsโ€™ CREATE AND SUPPORT actions that result in unsustainable, dysfunctional human settlement patterns. He documents why these activities are bad for โ€˜the environmentโ€™ and why they stand in the way of achieving a sustainable trajectory for civilization by offering the false hope that there is an alternative to Fundamental Transformation of human settlement patterns.

    It is imperative that Owenโ€™s book generate broad support by citizens concerned with the trajectory of civilization. This is because Owen and his work will NOT get support from the denizens of Easy Green, and the Green Wash / Green Greed strategies to overcome Green Guilt.

    For example, Owen will not be popular with MainStream Environmental Institutions nor with the Green Washers who advertise in MainStream Media. For this reason citizens appreciation of โ€“ and support for โ€“ the thesis of Owens book is critical. See End Note Five

    5. In an early review of Supercapitalism included in PART FOURTEEN โ€“ RESOURCES โ€“ Chapter 46 of TRILO-G, EMR predicted that Robert Reichโ€™s book would not be a runaway best seller and that the author would not be popular with most economists and governance practitioners. That prediction has come to pass. The same fate is in store for Owen and Green Metropolis: Why Living Smaller, Living Closer, and Driving Less Are the Keys to Sustainability with those who have been plowing the fields that are explored in the book โ€“ unless citizens step forward to support the conclusions as they did with Jane Jacobs work.

    Of course, his work will be ridiculed, belittled and dismissed by the advocates of Business-As-Usual, especially 12.5 Percenters and the โ€˜any-growth-is-goodโ€ crowd.

    STOP

    Stop yapping about not having time to read another book. Stop nit picking this or that point made in a review of the book. Do not bother to bop around the Internet looking for quotes that will turn out to be irrelevant. Just READ the BOOK.

    PART TWO: FOUR TRAGIC FLAWS THAT OBSCURE THE IMPORTANCE OF OWENโ€™S PERSPECTIVES

    Before jumping into Green Metropolis: Why Living Smaller, Living Closer, and Driving Less Are the Keys to Sustainability readers need to be aware that between 40 and 60 percent of the citizens who have expressed concern with the impact of dysfunctional human settlement patterns will NOT agree with Owen on first reading. The same thing happened with Jane Jacobs. EMR knows that, he was there. See End Note Six

    6. EMR read The Death and Life of Great American Cities within weeks of its publication in 1961 based on a review in Time. Jacobs was known to โ€“ and respected by โ€“ some professionals including (one must would assume) the author of the Time review. Those who knew of Jacobs were familiar with her work at Architectural Forum, her community organizing in Greenwich Village and her victory over Robert Moses and / or her essay โ€œDowntown is for Peopleโ€ in Exploding Metropolis (1957). However, to the vast majority of the planning and development professional โ€˜leadership,โ€™ Jacobs was unknown. Professors teaching the architecture courses EMR was taking at the time had never heard of her and were not impressed with the book. Eight years later when EMR joined an architecture faculty most of the senior members still thought she was irrelevant in the โ€œrealโ€ world. To their dismay, EMR used Death and Life as a text in the graduate and undergraduate courses.

    Many readers will be turned off by one or more of the four tragic flaws that cloud the Green Metropolis: Why Living Smaller, Living Closer, and Driving Less Are the Keys to Sustainability. That does not mean Owen is not right. Most WILL come to agree with Owen (as they now do with Jacobs) but only after they take the time to understood the book โ€“ its strengths and its limitations.

    The question is: Will citizens understand the importance of the message and take action in the voting booth and in the marketplace before it is too late?

    It is popular to publish rapid fire second editions โ€“ The Earth is Flat followed by The Earth is Flat Updated and Expanded and Freakonomics followed by SuperFrekonomics, etc. โ€“ Green Metropolis cries out for a second edition soon.

    To guide and inform that second edition, Green Metropolis: Why Living Smaller, Living Closer, and Driving Less Are the Keys to Sustainability deserves immediate in-depth discussion and debate. It will be counterproductive to launch Blogesque broadsides such as: โ€œOwen does not understand Xโ€ or โ€œThis is just another attack on Y.โ€ Comments will be most productive if they are in a format such as: โ€œOn page X, Owen says Y, I believe he is wrong (or more constructively, it would be more productive to state this point differently) because of Z.โ€

    What are the Four Tragic Flaws?

    1. Inconsistent use of commonly misunderstood words (Vocabulary)

    2. Lack of an overarching Conceptual Framework which leads to a failure to quantify, much less precisely describe facts and relationships in terms that are recognizable and consistently defined

    3. Failure to understand the power of a rational and fair allocation of location-variable costs โ€“ this in spite of the fact that Owen identifies many of those costs

    4. Silence concerning alternative settlement patterns with which the majority of citizens โ€“ specifically, those who are not attracted to the Zentra of large New Urban Regions โ€“ feel comfortable. There are building configurations and settlement patterns that achieve MANY of the benefits Owen outlines WITHOUT scaring citizens with the โ€œManhattanโ€ image. This is especially true for small urban enclaves in the Countryside. What is more, it is just as true for the 95 percent of the land within the Clear Edge around the Cores of New Urban Regions that are outside the Zentra.

    It is important to examine and understand these Four Tragic Flaws:

    VOCABULARY

    The first Tragic Flaw is the failure to employ a consistent Vocabulary.

    The negative impact of not evolving a consistent, robust Vocabulary with which to discuss human settlement pattern is a recurring theme in the work of SYNERGY. It is impossible to effectively communicate using Core Confusing Words. The use of an imprecise Vocabulary is explored in Chapter 2 and throughout The Shape of the Future. The issue is summarized in PART EIGHT, Chapter 26 โ€“ Gibberish and in PART THIRTEEN โ€“ GLOSSARY of TRILO-G.

    Owen uses the Core Confusing words โ€“ โ€˜city,โ€™ โ€˜exurban,โ€™ โ€˜local,โ€™ โ€˜sprawl,โ€™โ€˜suburbโ€™ and โ€˜suburbanโ€™ โ€“ with regularity. His use of โ€˜cityโ€™ is the most confusing. A random page word count suggests the words โ€˜cityโ€™ and โ€˜citiesโ€™ are used 650 times in the 320 page book. It is clear that Owen means at least 5 different and mutually exclusive things when he uses the word โ€˜city.โ€™

    Compounding the confusion, Owen uses part of the official title of municipal Agencies even more times. The use of these municipal Agency names as a generic place designation, when interchanged with the use of the word โ€˜cityโ€™ compounds the confusion. Sometimes the place names refer to just a part of the municipality, sometimes to the entire Region in which the municipality exists โ€“ and everything in between.

    โ€˜Cityโ€™ is used to describe Manhattan Island (New York County) which is only one of five counties (Boroughs) in New York City. Elsewhere, โ€˜New Yorkโ€™ and New York City are described in a way that does not apply to Staten Island that is another of the five counties within New York City. The list of inappropriate approbations is nearly endless. Suffice it to say, the majority of times the word โ€˜cityโ€™ is used, it does not mean the only valid use of the term โ€“ one word in the official title of a specific municipal Agency.

    A great step forward would be for the second edition to not include the word โ€˜cityโ€™ unless it is capitalized and coupled with the name of that specific City.

    Owen does not need to follow the terminology in GLOSSARY, he just needs to use words in a way that is not confusing. Owen may be clear about what HE means when HE uses a term and HE may not confuse himself by his use of words but it is axiomatic that others are confused due to the neural linguistic framework triggered by Core Confusing Words, especially โ€˜city,โ€™ โ€˜local, and misused place names. See End Note Seven

    7. EMR recently had occasion to address the neural linguistic framework of the word โ€˜cityโ€™ in a communication with Kirstin Miller at Ecocities Builders. Here is a clarified version or that communication:

    The problem is that the majority of citizens in the US of A do not hold in high regard what they think of when someone says โ€œcity.โ€ What one envisions in response to a word or phrase is the neural linguistic framework.

    This lack of high regard is due in part to the fact that, as classically defined, โ€œ the cityโ€ was eclipsed 140 + / – years ago by the Industrial Center. โ€˜Cityโ€™ as an Urban entity has not existed in the US of A since soon after the War Between the States. The Industrial Center was in turn eclipsed 50 years ago by the New Urban Region as documented in The Shape of the Future.

    There are two cohorts that are critical to making the connection between human settlement pattern and a sustainable trajectory for civilization:

    First , there are the scholars and scientists. Scholars and scientists inhabit disciplinary islands and do not yet understand that the science of human settlement patterns IS a Science. They are almost all very sure that they do not want some overarching consilience encroaching on their turf and threatening their disciplinary fiefdom .

    More important are the governance practitioners (elected and appointed) who do not think there is a connection between โ€˜cityโ€™ and โ€˜solutionโ€™ because citizens (as documented by focus groups and opinion poles) NEVER mention human settlement patterns as an issue or โ€œcityโ€ as a solution.

    Let me start with a few numbers and what one can discover from discussions with citizens in two of our favorite large Urban agglomerations:

    Case One: The City of Boston has about 610,000 citizens. The Boston CMSA has over 6,000,000 citizens and Boston New Urban Region (NUR) perhaps 8,000,000.

    We have lived in the Boston NUR and visit from time to time. We would estimate that less than one in ten residents view themselves as living in a place they visualize when they hear the word โ€œcity.โ€

    Half of those who actually do live in The City of Boston would like to move out if they could because they are at the bottom of the Ziggurat and believe the ads and other Business-As-Usual propaganda โ€“ someplace else is better. They are sure of that because they saw it on TV.

    Many who live in the Boston NUR, but not in โ€œthe City of Boston,โ€ already DID move out โ€“ if not in this generation, then their parents or grandparents moved out. Citizens have been moving out of what is now the City of Boston since the mid 1600s โ€“ with others moving in to replace them. Late 20th century resurgence of โ€œthe cityโ€ as a place to live and work is great but this movement is based on five percent of the Regionโ€™s population who are supported by another ten percent who like to visit the Zentra โ€“ now and then. Fifteen percent is NOT a majority.

    Case Two: Federal District of Columbia has about 595,000 residents. The Washington-Baltimore CMSA has around 8,200,000 and Washington-Baltimore NUR over 10,000,000.

    The Census Bureauโ€™s โ€œcentral cityโ€ for National Capital SubRegion is composed of the Federal District, the City of Alexandria and Arlington COUNTY. Do not try to tell most Arlingtonians they live in โ€œthe city.โ€ โ€œUrban area,โ€ perhaps, but โ€œcityโ€ NO.

    We have lived in four very different Beta Communities in this NUR over the past 35 years. Few who live in ANY of those places โ€“ all of which have new and/or renewed Urban fabric โ€“ thinks โ€˜the cityโ€™ or anything related to โ€˜the cityโ€™ is a โ€˜goodโ€™ thing.

    As you know we lived in your home NUR โ€“ San Francisco Bay โ€“ while going to law school. We have not been back very often since but are sure the same realities exist there as in Boston NUR or Washington -Baltimore NUR, as they do in NURs where we have worked professionally from New York NUR to Houston NUR.

    Yes, there are โ€˜citiphilesโ€™ but they are a small minority. Those concerned with evolving sustainable human settlement patterns must be to put together a working majority at the Regional, state or federal scales. After all, 85 percent of the citizen of the US of A live in โ€“ and would benefit from policies that support โ€“ New Urban Regions. Yes, there are municipal councilpersons who โ€œget it.โ€ There are even majorities of a specific municipal councils that are supportive of Urban functionality.

    The critical need is for a majority of those who vote for the โ€˜leaders.โ€™ A majority will be required to support Fundamental Transformations. One goal of the Fundamental Transformations will be institutionalizing the connections between settlement pattern and environmental solutions that you and Richard Register advocate.

    The review of David Owenโ€™s new book puts the issue in perspective:

    The title is Green Metropolis: Why Living Smaller, Living Closer, and Driving Less Are the Keys to Sustainability (Yes, I know, โ€œmetropolisโ€ does not generate an attractive neural linguistic framework.)

    But note the Subtitle: โ€œWhy living Smaller, Living Closer, and Driving Less Are the Keys to Sustainability.โ€ We believe a majority in a Region can come to agree on that statement.

    But the headline on the WaPo review reads: โ€œCities Will Save Us.โ€

    Some may be attracted to the title of the review but how many in the Boston NUR or the Washington-Baltimore NUR would bother to read the review (much less the book) with a headline like that?

    When a statistically valid cross section of citizens is assembled as a sounding board / focus group for an open minded person running for Regional, state or federal office, how many will say โ€œI saw a great review of and read a great book about how โ€˜citiesโ€™ will save us?โ€

    There is one other wrinkle here. Our copy of Owenโ€™s book is on the way, but the very positive review noted above from WaPo says that Owenโ€™s โ€˜solutionโ€™ is that citizens should live at Manhattan densities because that is where per capita consumption is lowest.

    The per capita consumption MAY be low in Manhattan but most citizens will doubt that. Even if they are shown that it is true, the majority of Households will use every means possible to avoid being one of those who must live in โ€œthe city.โ€

    In Crabgrass Frontier, Kenneth Jackson points out that citizens have been looking for ways to escape โ€œthe dust and noise of the cityโ€ since cities were first formed. (According the Jackson, the Egyptian ambassador to Babylon lived in the โ€œsubโ€Urbs and claimed to have the best of both worlds, close to the action but away from the congestion of the โ€˜city.โ€™)

    Here is where the work of SYNERGY comes into play. It turns out that less than five percent of the land area in the US of A is needed for ALL the Urban fabric to support the projected population through 2050 at MINIMUM sustainable densities โ€“ 10 Persons per acre at the Alpha Community scale.

    The Zentra of New York, Boston and Washington-Baltimore NURs are all much higher in intensity but the whole NUR are far lower. One does NOT need to live in a high-rise to benefit from functional Urban fabric.

    Here again the curse of pervasive Geographic Illiteracy and the Myth of the Great American Dream raises its ugly head:

    โ€œYou do not want me to live in a Single Household Detached Dwelling? OH! You want to force me to live in a closet in a high-rise like Manhattan do you? Well I will fight you every way I can. Citizens have a right to protect their freedom dictators like you …โ€

    You open your discussion of the Ecocity World Summit on page two of the newsletter with: โ€œWhen you hear over 50 percent of people now live in cities…โ€

    I believe you mean 50 percent of the people now live โ€œin large Urban agglomerations.โ€

    The point that you are making in the next sentence is right: Almost as many DO live in smaller Urban agglomerations, not scattered across the Countryside. In most places on the planet farmers live in Villages. And this DOES mean that Urban human settlement pattern at all scales is critical to any discussion of solutions to obtaining a sustainable trajectory for civilization.

    The important point is that those in the US of A who need to make the connection between the design and delivery of the built environment and the problems facing human society do not see โ€œcityโ€ as any part of the answer beyond being a place a few others may like to live and work and which they MAY want to visit from time to time.

    What you think of when you say โ€œcityโ€ CAN be an answer but not what the majority think of when they hear the word โ€œcity.โ€ Again, the problem is the neural linguistic connection of the vast majority.

    I know, I know. After three pages you might still be saying: โ€œI love โ€˜cities,โ€™ everyone I talk to every day loves โ€˜citiesโ€™…โ€ But recall that Boa Constrictors have rabid fan clubs, so do Pit Bulls. But no one is going use a Boa or a Pit Bull as the logo for a species diversity campaign.

    The vast majority of citizens in the US of A do not live in โ€˜city.โ€™ As suggested in End Note Seven, the vast majority DO NOT like the place they visualize when the hear the words โ€˜cityโ€™ or โ€˜cities.โ€™ Even those who live in a part of an intensively developed SubRegion do not love โ€˜cities.โ€™ What THEY love is their Alpha Neighborhood or Alpha Village.

    The other Core Confusing Words used by Owen are almost as emotion filled and just as often misused and misunderstood.

    CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

    The second Tragic Flaw is the failure of Owen to articulate or embrace an overarching Conceptual Framework of human settlement pattern. This leads to an inability to quantify โ€“ much less precisely describe โ€“ facts and relationships in terms that are recognizable, consistently defined components of human settlement.

    The absolute necessity of having a comprehensive Conceptual Framework in order to understand human settlement pattern is addressed in Chapter 2 of The Shape of the Future โ€“ and throughout that book. In TRILO-G the importance of a comprehensive Conceptual Framework is articulated in PART EIGHT – FIRST STEP ON THE ROAD TO SUSTAINABILITY โ€“ Chapter 27 โ€“ Building Blocks, and is graphically illustrated in a PowerPoint presentation โ€œNew Urban Region Conceptual Frameworkโ€ and in โ€˜Stark Contrast,โ€ both found in PART FOURTEEN โ€“ Chapter 49. See End Note Eight

    8. There is as much detail about the importance of a comprehensive Conceptual Framework in the work of SYNERGY as there is concerning Vocabulary addressed in End Note Seven. In the interest of keeping this analysis โ€˜short,โ€™ the details are not included in this document. For further information see the material referenced above, in particular the PowerPoint โ€œNew Urban Region Conceptual Framework.โ€

    Whatever Conceptual Framework is employed in discussing human settlement patterns, it is essential to identify and quantify the organic components of human settlement patterns. Trying to convey the facts about the per capita consumption in โ€œManhattanโ€ without an understanding and quantification of the components of โ€œManhattanโ€ and the organic structure of which โ€œManhattanโ€ is a part is a fantasy exercise.

    โ€œManhattanโ€ is not a uniform monoculture of similar sized and similarly occupied and used buildings. The varied buildings found on Manhattan are not located on lots and blocks of the same dimension and they are not all an equal distance for a subway platform. Check it out with Google Earth; Manhattan is NOT uniform. Downtown, Midtown, Tribeca, Greenwich, Upper East Side, Lower East Side (then and now) South Village (only now) are all different.

    The key message that Owen is trying to get across is that certain characteristics of SOME Urbanized areas are imperative to replicate if sustainable human settlement patterns are to be achieved to support an Urban, technologically based civilization.

    No one, not even Owen expects โ€“ or wants โ€“ to build replicas of โ€œManhattanโ€ in order to achieve the same levels of per capita consumption. โ€œWhat are the key characteristics?โ€ โ€œWhat is the Critical Mass necessary to create these characteristics?โ€ and โ€œAt what component scale is uniformity and / or diversity important?โ€ These are absolutely critical questions that cannot be addressed without a specific Conceptual Framework AND quantification. See End Note Nine

    9. Manhattan (New York County) is about 14,600 acres. That is about the size of Columbia, Md or the part of The Woodlands that falls in Montgomery County, TX. Manhattan has about 1,634,795 residents and thus a density of about 111 persons per acre. That is ten times the density of the original plan for Columbia, MD and most of the proposed Alpha Communities (Planned New Communities) started in the US of and Western Europe between 1955 and 1995 โ€“ or in China since 2000.

    The powerful, simple two dimensional graphics Owen introduces are a place to start in discussing density and diversity, but ONLY place to start. Failure to understand that there are identifiable components of human settlement pattern in every Urbanized area โ€“ and that there are Natural Laws of human settlement pattern โ€“ results in the problems pointed out in books reviewed in TRILO-G โ€“ PART TEN – THE PATH TO SUSTAINABILITY โ€“ Chapter 36 โ€“ Fireside Reading: The Authors of most of these books are looking through the wrong end of the telescope.

    What is โ€˜possibleโ€™ for individual citizens is, due to the cumulative impact in an Urban society, โ€˜impossibleโ€™ for all citizens. Owen, like McKibben and the others cited in Chapter 36, act as if they have no idea that every sustainable New Urban Regions must be made up of identifiable components, especially Balanced, Alpha Communities.

    The reason that it โ€˜appearsโ€™ that โ€œManhattanโ€ intensity and density is required to lower per capita consumption is that Owen has not isolated and identified the factors that would result in similar levels of consumption with more amenable settlement patterns. See End Note Ten

    10. The Rosslyn / Ballston Corridor in Arlington County, VA is a better โ€œmodelโ€ than Manhattan for the reasons spelled out in End Note Seven and further examined in the following sections. Residents can live car free in the RB Corridor without being overpowered by the scale of Manhattan.

    The New Urban Regions where 85 percent of the citizens of the US of A now live and work must be made up primarily of Alpha Communities that are primarily composed of Walkable Villages with a shared vehicle station at Core of every Village.

    It is NOT JUST tall buildings and NOT JUST clones of Manhattan that will set the template for these Alpha Villages and Alpha Communities. The key issue is evolving โ€œcar-freeโ€ places to live and work. See TRILO-G โ€“ PART THREE โ€“ THE PROBLEM WITH CARS. The current reality of resource consumption โ€“ made more clear than ever by Green Metropolis: Why living Smaller, Living Closer, and Driving Less Are the Keys to Sustainability โ€“ is that the age of the Autonomobile is over. See โ€œTimberfence Truth or Consequences.โ€

    ALLOCATION OF LOCATION VARIABLE COSTS

    The third Tragic Flaw is the failure of Owen to understand the power of โ€“ or articulate a process to โ€“ achieve a rational (aka, equitable, proper and fair) allocation of location-variable costs. Throughout the book Owen identifies direct and indirect cost of dysfunctional location โ€“ the scatterization of Urban activities. In many cases he notes the existence of those costs but does not quantify them. In other places he assumes that subsidies exist but does not provide supporting references.

    In addition, Owen does not indicate that he understands the profound impact that a fair and equitable (proper / intelligent) allocation of location-variable costs would have on citizen decisions. See End Note Eleven

    11. Without the Vocabulary and Conceptual Framework it is hard to quantify these costs. It is in the best interest of Business-As-Usual and Governance-As-Usual to obscure and hide these costs.

    SILENCE ABOUT ALTERNATIVE SETTLEMENT PATTERNS

    The last of the four Tragic Flaws is a product of the first three. Owen is silent about alternative settlement patterns with which the majority of citizens โ€“ specifically, those who are not attracted to life in the Zentra of large New Urban Regions โ€“ would feel comfortable. As stated in End Note Seven, the VAST majority of citizens are NOT comfortable with โ€˜cityโ€™ or with โ€œManhattanโ€ as an ideal place to live or work although a somewhat larger number consider it a nice place to play โ€“ now and then.

    Even Owen is not comfortable with Manhattan in real time. If he was, he and his wife would not have moved to Northwestern Connecticut as soon as he had the resources โ€“ economic status and professional security that allowed he and his wife to rely on Telework โ€“ and excuses โ€“ children and a near-by golf course.

    As suggested in the prior section, there are building forms and settlement patterns that would achieve most of the benefits Owen outlines WITHOUT scaring citizens with reference to โ€˜cityโ€™ and the โ€œManhattanโ€ image.

    Owenโ€™s affinity for Manhattanโ€™s per capita consumption is similar to Jane Jacobsโ€™ affinity for the social cohesiveness of Greenwich Village in The Death and Life. However, many more can identify with Jacobsโ€™ Alpha Village image than can with Owenโ€™s abstract Manhattan image. If they received a personal invitation from someone who they knew and trusted, many might well visit Greenwich Village โ€“ as Jim Bacon did recently.

    In addition, most Greenwich Village residents do not have the ability to articulate what they like and / or they are so high on the economic Ziggurat that they are in fact โ€˜differentโ€™ from those who do not find themselves attracted to โ€˜the cityโ€™ as suggested in End Note Seven.

    Also the density of Greenwich Village is not the one thought of as โ€œManhattan.โ€ The 10 to 20 story buildings in Owenโ€™s 2D diagrams are not the mode of the most attractive parts of Manhattans many Communities and Villages. While 85 percent of the US of Aโ€™s population lives in New urban Regions only five percent of the land inside the Clear Edge approaches these patterns and densities.

    How does one cause citizens to feel happy and safe? NOT by suggesting that they need to squeeze themselves into a high-rise building.

    Quantification is important. There are alternatives to โ€˜tall buildingsโ€™ that still achieve the intensity needed to foster diversity and generate enough trips to support shared-vehicle systems. It has been have demonstrated that there could be just as many square feet of built space as there are now on Manhattan Island IF all the currently developed lots were occupied by five story Ziggurats rather than the current mix of very tall and short, inefficient buildings.

    There are some advantages to tall buildings but not monocultures of tall buildings. Further, Central Paris is nearly as dense as Manhattan Island but does not have the same high percentage of jobs. The exploration of โ€˜densityโ€™ must be pursued much further but Owen opens the door.

    The discussion to this point in this section has focused on the configuration of the Urban fabric in the Zentra of New Urban Regions.

    One way to broaden the discussion is to turn ones attention to the small Urban enclaves that are inside Clear Edges in Countryside โ€“ that is outside the Clear Edge around the Core of the New Urban Region. What settlement pattern makes sense for small Urban places that are the prototype โ€˜small townโ€™ image that those fleeing โ€˜Urban congestionโ€™ were seeking?

    Viewed from the perspective of โ€˜what makes sense for Urban enclaves in the Countryside,โ€™ one can see the importance of sustainable building configurations on the 95 percent of the land

    WITHIN the Clear Edges around the Cores of New Urban Regions which is OUTSIDE the Zentra.

    This vast low density Urban area has far more in common with Urban enclaves in the Countryside than with the settlement patterns in the Zentra of large New Urban Regions. See PowerPoint โ€œNew Urban Region Conceptual Frameworkโ€ in PART FOURTEEN – RESOURCES Chapter 49 โ€“ Resources Cited in TRILO-G.

    This is an area that Owen has not explored and which is beyond the scope of this review but is, obviously, very important.

    BEYOND THE FOUR TRAGIC FLAWS

    While the four Tragic Flaws detract form the impact of the first edition of Green Metropolis: Why Living Smaller, Living Closer, and Driving Less Are the Keys to Sustainability there are also some curious and regrettable omissions.

    No one can disagree with Owenโ€™s general observations about the negative impact of โ€˜freeโ€™ parking, it is curious, however, that he does not focus on the equally counterproductive free (or pay) parking surrounding shared-vehicle system station platforms.

    In addition, Owen does not acknowledge the work of Donald Shoup (number 15 on the Planetizen list of Urban thinkers) who is โ€˜the authorityโ€™ on the evils of free parking and the ways to solve the problems caused by free parking. See End Note Twelve

    12. SYNERGY has campaigned against free (and paid) parking around commuter rail stations since 1976 and around heavy and light rail stations since 1980. See โ€œTime to Fundamentally Rethink METROโ€ and โ€œA Picture is Worth a Thousand Lies.โ€

    In another interesting omission, Owen comes to the conclusion that โ€˜congestion is the solutionโ€™ to getting citizens out of Autonomobiles but does not credit Tony Downes with identifying this reality three decades ago. Tony also identified โ€œTriple Convergenceโ€ that results from congestion relief projects which Owen describes but does not credit a source.

    Anyone who has been exploring the issue of human settlement pattern could list other similar omissions.

    However, it is important to make it clear that in spite of the Tragic Flaws and other concerns, Owen has hit a home run for those who have been arguing for rational consideration of human settlement patterns.

    Owen has gotten many things absolutely right. His experience of living in Manhattan and then living in and serving as a municipal governance practitioner โ€“ chair of zoning board โ€“ in a small township in Northwestern Connecticut has given him a unique perspective.

    What he has not yet done is to figured out the middle ground between Manhattan Island (New York County, New York) and Lower City, Connecticut โ€“ or wherever it is that Owen lives along the R = 90 mile Radius from the Centroid of the New York New Urban Region.

    While Owen has not identified a Third Way he has NAILED TO THE WALL the hypocrisy of the vast majority of those who show up at public hearings on land use controls, including those who claim to love traditional towns and then support Euclidian zoning.

    PART THREE: THREE MILESTONES ON THE PATH TO A SUSTAINABLE CIVILIZATION

    Owenโ€™s most important contribution to a sustainable trajectory for civilization will come form creative application of the insights contained in Green Metropolis: Why Living Smaller, Living Closer, and Driving Less Are the Keys to Sustainability. Owenโ€™s perspectives can facilitate citizen understanding in at least three important areas. To date these critical understandings in these areas have been obscured by citizenโ€™s failure to grasp the overarching importance of variations in the pattern and density of human settlement pattern.

    Each of the following three milestones would mark critically important stage on the path to a sustainable trajectory of civilization.

    UNDERSTANDING THE MEGAMEGA ECONOMY

    First and foremost there must be a broad understanding of Planet Earthโ€™s resource constrained MegaMega Economy (aka, UberEconomy). In Hazel Henderstonโ€™s terminology this is The Whole Cake โ€“ The Total Productive System of Industrial Society โ€“ not just the icing that is the monetized economy. See Chapter 6 Box 1, The Shape of the Future. In SYNERGYโ€™s Vocabulary this โ€˜cakeโ€™ might be called simply โ€œUrban civilization.โ€

    NO ONE โ€“ Not citizens, not Agencies, not Enterprises, not Institutions โ€“ can afford the current trajectory of goods and services consumption and the entropy caused by exhaustion of the resources required to produce the goods and services.

    The total Agency (public) debt is stupendous and growing exponentially

    The total private debt (individuals, Households, Enterprises and Institutions) is staggering

    The exact grand total of this debt may be in question but no one who has removed the Rose tinted Business-As-Usual goggles and mask can dispute these two realities.

    What citizens must come to understand is that world-wide, collectively citizens and their Organizations (Agencies, Enterprises and Institutions) have burned through Natural Capital (especially, but not only, stored energy / oil) in an attempt to maintain the ILLUSION that humans can HAVE IT ALL.

    There is a Myth that somehow finite resources can be magically transformed to infinite resources through technology and / or โ€˜simple living.โ€™

    This illusion is tragic at the scale of individuals and Households.

    This illusion is catastrophic at the scale of communities from Alpha Dooryards to Alpha Community and from New Urban Region to Planet.

    The illusion of everlasting growth in consumption has been kept alive during The Great Recession by constant reference to the illusion that somehow the economy with โ€˜soonโ€™ return to โ€˜Growth-AS-Usual.โ€™ There is no feed stock to sustain that growth. See End Note Thirteen.

    13. See material circulated by members of Congress supporting the Securing Americaโ€™s Future Economy (SAFE) Commission. This material documents the scale and impact of Agency debt AND the illusion that it is possible to return Business-As-Usual โ€œgrowth.โ€™ The Fedโ€™s low interest rate strategy โ€“ pumping money into the economy to kick-start โ€˜growthโ€™ is causing joy on Wall Street and creating a new bubble. The stock market has been going up for months due to the promise of more Agency subsidies and the allusion that cheap money will generate jobs.

    The fact is that there are not enough resources to create a volume of goods and services to sustain the levels of consumption that citizens and their organizations still believe they โ€˜deserve.โ€™

    There appear to be two choices:

    โ€ข Democratically determined and implemented Fundamental Transformations of settlement patterns, governance structures and economic systems to equitably and intelligently SHARE Community, Region and Planet Earth resources based on reality, OR

    โ€ข Draconian / Totalitarian transformations of governance structure and economic systems that restrict and limit Community, Region and Planet Earth resources to select groups at the top of select Ziggurats based on deceit and force.

    If a way to drastically reduce consumption and SHARE resources is not found, then the second path โ€“ Draconian / Totalitarian deceit and force โ€“ will leave most humans without resources or citizen status. That is not a sustainable condition on a โ€˜small,โ€™ โ€˜flatโ€™ planet where disadvantaged groups have access to global communications and weapons of mass destruction.

    Silly bromides such as โ€˜starve the beast,โ€™ โ€˜deregulationโ€™ and โ€˜cut taxes to spur growthโ€™ only widen the Wealth Gap. This has been demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt since the mid-70s. See Supercapitalism. These band-aids temporarily help SOME at the top of SOME Ziggurats but are at best well meaning diversions on the path to COLLAPSE.

    To drive unsustainable consumption, humans continue to be lied to by Enterprise advertising:

    โ€œYou can have it all!โ€

    To garner support for this or that Agency or Institution, humans continue to be lied to by those who suggest that:

    โ€ข This economic system or that economic system, OR

    โ€ข This religious belief or that religious belief, OR

    โ€ข This political Clan or that political Clan

    Will insure that you can HAVE IT ALL โ€“ at the expense of THEM.

    On a โ€˜small,โ€™ โ€˜flatโ€™ Planet there are no longer any THEMs.

    Human actions in the marketplace and in the voting booth that are based on these lies will lead to COLLAPSE just has similar lies have done in the past.

    The following are threshold perceptions to establish a sustainable trajectory in each of the three spheres of human activity and a sketch of the role that Green Metropolis: Why Living Smaller, Living Closer, and Driving Less Are the Keys to Sustainability has the potential to play.

    In The Economic Sphere:

    In the Economic Sphere the paramount strategy must be to discontinue unsustainable levels of consumption, especially those that are subsidized by burning Natural Capital to โ€˜growโ€™ the economy.

    A โ€˜biggerโ€™ economy meets some Enterprise needs, aโ€˜betterโ€™ economy meets all citizens needs. See End Note Fourteen

    14. See TRILO-G PART NINE โ€“ Chapter 29 โ€“ Prospering on a Finite Planet: The Economic Sphere โ€“ Global Resource Reality and Chapters 6 and 7of The Shape of the Future.

    A BETTER economy requires ending Mass OverConsumption. The US of A has five percent of the Earthโ€™s human population but consumes 20 percent of the Planetโ€™s resources each year.

    In spite of this consumption level โ€“ or because of it โ€“ the application of objective criteria documents that the US of A ranks at or near THE BOTTOM of โ€˜industrializedโ€™ democracies with respect to education, health and longevity, prosperity and wealth distribution as well as happiness.

    There is no significant difference in genes, diet, technology, geography, religious preferences, economic system, governance structure or any other parameter between the US of A and comparable nation-states that would account for these differences,

    EXCEPT for the direct and indirect impacts of dysfunctional human settlement pattern.

    Beyond damage to economic, social and natural systems inflicted by Mass OverConsumption, advertising and entertainment drives both industrialized (First World) and industrializing (Second World and Third World) citizens to believe they DESERVE and could achieve comparable levels of consumption.

    There is not conceivable way that the multi-billion-population โ€˜developing economiesโ€™ can achieve US of A levels of consumption. See End Note Fifteen

    15. Does ending Mass OverConsumption mean the end of advertising which is a major driver of creating โ€˜needโ€™ and โ€˜wantโ€™? That is an especially important question in the US of A where five percent of the worldโ€™s population consume 20 percent of the Planetโ€™s resources and also sets โ€˜the standardโ€™ for consumption.

    Massive โ€œimport replacementโ€ and community self-reliance at all scales from Household and Alpha Dooryard to MegaRegion is an important threshold strategy.

    The first step is equitable SHARING economic resources is to fairly allocate location-variable costs. That is because of the rising cost of energy and other resources required to overcome spacial dysfunction impact all other human activities.

    Green Metropolis: Why Living Smaller, Living Closer, and Driving Less Are the Keys to Sustainability opens the window of methods to achieve these objectives.

    In the Social Sphere:

    Improvement in the Social Sphere will involve massive SHARING of space (aka, functional human settlement patterns) as well as SHARING vehicles, tools and resources.

    Citizens must reestablishment of the Balance between individual rights and community responsibilities upon which participatory democracy is based. This will require identifying economic incentives that do not create social dysfunction as the last 35 years demonstrates. See Supercapitalism.

    Simple living is NOT simple in a technologically driven, Urban society. Again Green Metropolis: Why Living Smaller, Living Closer, and Driving Less Are the Keys to Sustainability opens the window on this reality.

    In the Physical Sphere:

    Evolving Balanced, functional human settlement patterns is even more critical in the Physical Sphere. Creating car free (aka, Large, Private vehicle or Autonomobile free) and lawn free Urban fabric as well as Urban and NonUrban environments that are free from the unintended consequences of technology fixes that impair air, water, soil and food resources are necessary for a sustainable future.

    In all three Spheres:

    It is imperative to understand that:

    On a planet made โ€˜smallโ€™ and โ€˜flatโ€™ by 6.7 billion humans with instantaneous communications that stoke appetites for consumption, the critical parameter of a sustainable trajectory for society is NOT how smart individuals are but rather how intelligent citizens and their Organizations are as communities (small โ€˜cโ€™) at ALL scales.

    โ€œIntelligent communities at ALL scalesโ€ means that intelligent communities (small โ€˜cโ€™) include not just Households, not just extended โ€˜familiesโ€™, not just Alpha Dooryards, Clusters, Neighborhoods and Villages but ESPECIALLY Alpha Communities, SubRegions, Regions and MegaRegions. In other words: There must be intelligent communities at ALL scales of human settlement.

    See TRILO-G โ€“ PART FIVE โ€“ A NEW METRIC OF CITIZEN WELL BEING. More details will be found in โ€œSketch of the Future,โ€ forthcoming.

    TOO MUCH URBAN LAND

    There is a second critical milestone on the path to sustainable trajectory for civilization which the perspectives presented in Green Metropolis: Why Living Smaller, Living Closer, and Driving Less Are the Keys to Sustainability can make understandable:

    There is ALREADY FAR TOO MUCH LAND devoted to Urban uses, especially in the US of A.

    This point is demonstrated repeatedly in The Shape of the Future. The density ranges which Owen champions may be higher than are optimum for many human activities but this discussion opens the door to understanding spacial reality.

    In the US of A there are about 2.4-billion acres of land. Excluding Alaska there are about 2.1-billion acres of land. There are 307-million + / – citizens at the present time. At a density of Manhattan (the New York County portion of New York City) โ€“ 111 persons per acre โ€“ the total population of the US of A would occupy about 0.13 percent of the land. That leaves 99.87 percent of the land for NonUrban land uses. That is better than Ivory Soap!

    NO ONE seriously believes it would be wise to have โ€˜everyoneโ€™ in the US of A live at Manhattan densities but after reading Green Metropolis: Why Living Smaller, Living Closer, and Driving Less Are the Keys to Sustainability almost anyone can see that there are advantages to densities that are far higher than โ€˜the American Dream.โ€™ The market for Urban fabric has confirmed this reality since technology made first made alternative Urban densities an option 140 years ago.

    Since the mid 80s, SYNERGY has used the figure 10 persons per acre within Clear Edges as a minimum density for Urban land at the Alpha Community scale. See End Note Sixteen

    16. This parameter is based on the densities of relatively Balanced Planned New Communities that were actually constructed in the US of A and Europe since World War II. In Planned New Communities there is an attempt to at least โ€˜more-fairlyโ€™ allocate some location-variable costs and thus these โ€˜intentionalโ€™ settlement patterns are a useful benchmark. It turns out that Planned New Communities in other parts of the world โ€“ including new โ€˜eco-friendlyโ€™ ones in Asia โ€“ also approximate this Guideline.

    Using the area and population numbers above this would mean that the total Urban land uses (inside Clear Edges) would be about 1.5 percent of the total land area. That leaves 97.5 percent of the land for NonUrban land uses.

    In order to accommodate unique topography, provide for Urban Openspace and for Open Land, the parameter for New Urban Region spacial allocations via Regional Metrics used by SYNERGY have assumed 5 percent of the land would be Urban land inside the Clear Edge around the Cores of New Urban Regions. See End Note Seventeen

    17. For in depth exploration of these perspectives see PowerPoint โ€œNew Urban Region Conceptual Frameworkโ€ and โ€œStark Contrastโ€ found in TRILO-G โ€“ PART FIFTEEN โ€“ RESOURCES Chapter 49. The National Capital SubRegion there is perhaps twice a much land now classified by the Census Bureau as โ€œurbanizedโ€ as is needed and millions of acres within Radius = 100 Miles of the Centroid is rendered dysfunctional by scattered Urban land uses. The vast over allocation of land to Urban land uses first became clear to EMR by comparing images taken from Diamond Head in 1961 with images taken from the same location in 1989. An illustrated lecture on the topic was summarized in a draft section of The Shape of the Future. This draft included an exploration of information gathered in Kauai, Oahu, Honolulu and Waikiki in 1989. Assisted by perspectives included in Owenโ€™s work, this material can now be revised and will be published.

    Based on the realities of resource constraint โ€“ the end of cheap energy and the end of the age of the Autonomobile addressed in โ€œTimberfence Truth or Consequencesโ€ โ€“ it will be imperative to increase the base FUTURE minimum sustainable density of Urban fabric within Clear Edges to 20 persons per acre + / – which would lower the net Urban area to .074 percent from the 1.5 percent noted above.

    What every the number one selects it will be below the 5 percent figure used in SYNERGYโ€™s Regional Metrics.

    The important understanding here is that Green Metropolis: Why Living Smaller, Living Closer, and Driving Less Are the Keys to Sustainability spells out the rationale for FAR higher densities than is usually assumed. Why is this so important?

    A major driver of dysfunctional settlement patterns is the Myth that increases in population in any Region mean that more and more land needs to be consumed to accommodate housing, jobs and services. Land owners became land speculators due to this unfounded illusion.

    In essence all land owners โ€“ even those in the most remote sections of Urban Support Regions, but especially those within a hundred miles of the Centroid of a New Urban Region โ€“ believe they are sitting on Urban development gold. This is the basis for the wailing of those who decry the loss of โ€˜property rightsโ€™ from land use controls.

    Myths rooted in Geographic Illiteracy has salted millions of acres of land with pyrite.

    Green Metropolis: Why Living Smaller, Living Closer, and Driving Less Are the Keys to Sustainability provides a place to start in constructing a basis to assay the true extent of land needed for Urban uses.

    Rational quantification of the demand for Urban land is absolutely essential for establishing settlement pattern strategies.

    Over the past century there has been a โ€˜marketโ€™ for Urban land uses in scattered locations for the reasons spelled out in TRILO-G PART ONE โ€“ THE ROOTS OF THE HELTER SKELTER CRISIS.

    The assumption that there is a โ€˜property rightโ€™ based on the illusion of the need to accommodate Urban land uses has a corrosive impact on governance and social stability.

    Property rights advocates claim that land use controls that limit density in some areas are โ€œstealingโ€ from land owners. The illusion of rights (aka, value) derived from dysfunctional scatteration can be corrected by understanding the reality of Urban settlement pattern costs and benefits. Scattered, low density Urban land uses have lower value to users and to communities (small โ€˜cโ€™) than the same land uses in more functional configurations. One need go no further than the shelter market to prove this point.

    Instead of communities (small โ€˜cโ€™) โ€˜stealingโ€™ value from individual land owners, the individual land owners are โ€˜stealingโ€™ the potential of obtaining a sustainable trajectory from communities AT ALL SCALES. See End Note Eighteen

    18. Failure to understand the importance of alternative human settlement patterns impacts not just owners of land who hope to make a windfall by taking advantage of the Myths explored in THE ROOTS OF THE HELTER SKELTER CRISIS. Governance practitioners and citizens in general are besotted by this Myth. A frustrated County planner who knew his staff report supporting another McMansion / Hobby Farm proposal was environmentally indefensible hollered over his shoulder has he escaped into his cubicle: โ€œWhat else can โ€˜theyโ€™ DO with their land?โ€ The ecological answer was โ€˜nothing.โ€™ That is also the economic and social answer.

    An understanding of the perspectives outlined in Green Metropolis: Why Living Smaller, Living Closer, and Driving Less Are the Keys to Sustainability can help citizens and their governance practitioners ways to rationally allocate cost and benefits of Urban settlement patterns. See End Note Nineteen

    19. For example, sustainable agriculture will require a higher percentage of the population and a larger amount of land devoted to food and fiber production than has been the case with unsustainable industrial agriculture. Under these conditions, there will be more uses for land that is recycled out of Urban land uses.

    VOCABULARY, CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK AND QUANTIFICATION

    A third critical milestone on the path to sustainable trajectory for civilization which the perspectives presented in Green Metropolis: Why Living Smaller, Living Closer, and Driving Less Are the Keys to Sustainability can make understandable is straight forward:

    Address the Four Tragic Flaws outlined in Part Two.

    A detailed review of this process is beyond the scope of the current analysis. The following are notes which may be useful to those who sketch out the process:

    On Vocabulary:

    What if the managers of just three web sites:

    โ€ข trasitiontowns.org
    โ€ข worldchanging.org
    โ€ข plantetizen.com

    were to agreed to use a common, robust Vocabulary and avoid words such as โ€˜local,โ€™ โ€˜city,โ€™ etc. except where the meaning was clear and unambiguous?

    What if word spread from one to another of the Institutions heralded by Paul Hawkin in Blessed Unrest that with a common Vocabulary, and a comprehensive Conceptual Framework MOST of their individual laudable goals could be more easily achieved?

    The need for a robust and unambiguous Vocabulary and a comprehensive Conceptual Framework for discussion of human settlement patterns is documented by the discussion in Part Two.

    READ THE BOOK

    Enough for now. Read Green Metropolis: Why Living Smaller, Living Closer, and Driving Less Are the Keys to Sustainability and come up with your own analysis and feedback.


  • America: Land of the Layoff

    When you think about the “jobless recovery,” think about just how U.S. labor laws favor management and hurt workers.
    I couldn’t ask for a more clear example than that of my old employer, Business Week. I worked there about 15 years and for a total of 18 at its owner, McGraw-Hill. The venerable, New York-based magazine is being sold to business news giant Bloomberg because it hasn’t made money in about a decade. I believe losses were something like $45 million last year. The sales price is no more than an embarrassing $5 million.
    Like many print publications, BW got caught in the for-free Internet mess and changing demographics meaning that people who thirsted for business news to get ahead in the 1980s now are too old to care.
    BW was by far the best experience of my 36-year journalism career. The people there were by far the smartest and most talented I have ever worked with. Although BW, like most print media, has gone through round after round of layoffs, when a potential sale was announced last summer, I started watching. My former colleagues started a private Website open to current and former staffers to monitor the news and give people who have faced layoffs before a chance to offer advice.
    The bloodbath started last week. As many as 130 of about 400 staffers were canned, including some very talented individuals who have worked at the publication for three decades, have authored excellent books and are experts in specific fields.
    The firings took a “Darkness at Noon” quality. You were summed by telephone (or called if you were in a different city than New York). When you entered the room with the Human Resources people and there was a Bloomber editor, it meant you were in. If not, you were out.
    But something curious has happened. BW has many bureaus overseas (I managed the one in Moscow for six years in the 1980s and 1990s). Yet, there were very few layoffs in spots such as Europe and Asia.
    Why? Stricter labor laws there protect workers from such firings. In Europe and Asia, workers are considered more valuable than they are in America. Somehow, legislators see a value in the expertise and commitment that workers have made to their employers. If there is a money-losing proposition, then it is largely the fault of management., not the workers who do what they are instructed. And, curiously, top managers of companies in Europe and Asia do not get the gigantic salaries that CEOs in America do.
    This lesson is especially revealing given that any economic recovery will be largely jobless. Unemployment is 10 percent nationally, the largest number in years.
    Virginia is especially unfriendly towards workers and always favors management. The right to work law makes it harder to keep workers from organizing. “Employment at will” lets managers fire workers without really giving valid reasons. Pro-business cheerleaders will claim that this anti-worker attitude makes Virginia especially business-friendly.
    Nothing wrong with that except that it assumes that “business” is the exclusive realm of management. Real workers have nothing to do with it. They are merely widgets or commodities that can be tossed away at a whim.
    I hate to see good people who have done nothing wrong catch the blame for top management’s mistakes. At least some of my friends working overseas have some protection.
    Peter Galuszka

  • Here’s the Future of Health Care — and It’s Not in the United States

    The typical American hospital charges between $20,000 and $100,000 to perform open-heart surgery. The 1,000-bed Narayana Hrudayalaya Hospital in Bangalore, India, charges $2,000 on average — and, arguably, provides better quality outcomes.

    The factory model of medical care, in which hospitals, physicians, nurses and other staff focus with unremitting attention to efficiency and quality on a narrow scope of services, is so successful that entrepreneur/heart surgeon Devi Shetty is raising $90 million in private capital to build four more “health cities” in India. He also has plans to build a 2,000-bed general hospital in Grand Cayman, an hour’s plane ride from Miami, were he plans to price medical procedures at 50% less than what they cost in the United States.

    The story of Devi Shetty, recounted today in the Wall Street Journal, demonstrates in the most vivid possible way the extraordinary cost savings that could be achievable if the U.S. had a market-based health care system that focused on productivity and quality as opposed to the highly government regulated system where the emphasis is on shifting costs.

    Narayana Hrudayalaya is not for wealthy Indians only. The story also shows how higher productivity translates into lower costs and greater access for the poor. One third of the hospital’s patients are poor farmers covered by an insurance plan, crafted in partnership with the state of Karnataka, costing $3 per year per person and reimbursing the hospital $1,200 for a surgery, slightly less than the hospital’s $1,500 break even.

    How does Shetty do it? By paying Third World wages to his hospital staff? No, cardiac surgeons are paid between $110,000 and $240,000 annually — less than in America, perhaps, but not exactly coolie wages.

    By cutting corners on quality? Well, no. Quality comparisons are difficult to make but they tend to favor Narayana Hrudayalaya. As the Journal writes: “Narayana Hrudayalara reports a 1.4% mortality rate within 30 days of coronary bypass graft surgery, one of the most common procedures, compared with an average of 1.9% in the U.S. in 2008, according to data gathered by the Chicago-based Society of Thoracic Surgeons. What those data don’t do is adjust for the morbidity of the patients treated. Because so many of the Indian patients lack access to basic health care and suffer from more advanced cardiac disease, Narayana Hrudayalaya probably treats sicker patients, making the quality disparity even more pronounced.

    Shetty delivers superior productivity and outcomes by adopting a manufacturing model of process efficiency and quality control. “Japanese companies reinvented the process of making cars. That’s what we’re doing in health care,” Shetty says. “What health care needs is process innovation, not product innovation.”

    Needless to say, the health care atrocity lumbering through Congress pays zero attention to process innovation. Indeed, by encumbering the health care system with more bureaucracy and more rules, health care “deform” would most likely hinder process innovation.

    There’s a revolution in medical care occurring in the world, and India is at the epicenter. But it’s not the only player. The phenomenon of medical tourism is growing by leaps and bounds. The Journal quotes consulting firm Deloitte as saying that six million Americans are expected to travel to other countries next year in search of more affordable medical care, up from 750,000 who did so in 2007. In the absence of market-based reform of the health care system, we will see those numbers grow as Shetty builds his hospital in Grand Cayman and other entrepreneurs build similar facilities in locales from Central America to the Caribbean.

    Thus, the braniacs in Congress, in their monumental conceit that they know better than the health care professionals how to run a health care system, will not only increase the cost of health care and accelerate the country’s rush to bankruptcy, they will succeed in hollowing out our world-class medical industry.

    The question we should be asking ourselves is this: Why isn’t Shetty building his 2,000-bed hospital in the United States instead of Grand Cayman? What laws, regulations and incentives obstruct the operation of a heart hospital that would save patients millions of dollars and improve the quality of their care? For what reason, and to what ends, are we depriving Americans of superior, lower cost health care by means of process reform?

  • Pork You Can Believe In

    Conservative sources are suddenly abuzz with the story of “phantom” congressional districts in the Recovery.gov website that tracks where the 2009 stimulus money (more properly known as the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act) goes. Embarrassingly, the website lists way too many congressional districts. Virginia, for instance, supposedly has a 36th, 26th and 79th districts. Those entries are obviously due to sloppy data entry. Conservatives are getting a good belly laugh, but the stories I’ve read are missing the real scandal.

    Of the $159 billion in funds awarded so far, an overwhelming majority is going to Democrat districts. What a surprise. In the hands of a Democrat-controlled Congress, a program sold as a national economic stimulus functions in practice as a Democrat incumbent-reelection program.

    You can see the numbers for Virginia (excluding phantom districts) in the chart above. All told, Virginia’s six Democrat congressmen have raked in $2,574 million for their districts, for an average of $429 million per Dem district. The five Republicans pulled in only $863 million, for an average of $173 million per district. In the basement, the 7th district, represented by leading Obama critic and House Minority Whip Eric Cantor, garnered a meager $73 million — less than 6% of Bobby Scott’s 3rd district. Can you say, “Punish thine enemies?”

    Taking the job-creation numbers at face value (ignoring reporting from reputable media sources that the numbers could be inflated by 10% or more), we can calculate the average cost per job created in Virginia: $440,000. Is that a good return on investment or a poor one?

    Well, let’s see. The president’s own Council of Economic Advisors estimated in May that one job would be created for every $92,000 in government spending — in theory, far superior to $142,000 cost per job that could be expected from tax cuts. Unfortunately, Porkulus turned out to be only one-fifth as efficient as advertised. Indeed, using the Virginia numbers as a benchmark, Porkulus has generated one-third of the jobs that would have been created through tax cuts.

    Of course, as I noted above, Porkulus is only incidentally about job creation. It’s really about job preservation — as in, the jobs of Democrat Congresspersons.

    Yessiree! A new kind of politics. Change you can believe in. I’m feeling all warm and fuzzy — aren’t you?


  • SUNDAY READING

    Peter G. wonders how EMR can stand to read WaPo, the flagship of Enterprise-owned MainStream Media in the Washington-Baltimore NUR.

    Well, todayโ€™s edition provides plenty of reasons. Start with the front page:

    โ€œFederal oversight of subways proposed, Federal safety oversight of subways, light-rial systems proposed, METRO CRASH HELPED SPUR SAFETY PLAN, Obama administration to push for Congress to change law.โ€

    This story documents that the current administration is light years from understanding the path to a sustainable future which includes Fundamental Transformation of governance structure.

    No one thinks shared-vehicle systems should be unsafe. Few question the fact that METRO could be more safe and more efficient.

    The major governance Agencies in the National Capital SubRegion โ€“ the federal district, Virginia, Maryland and their political subdivisions (aka, municipalities) โ€“ have done a shoddy job of insuring safe efficient operation or of providing a stable source of revenue.

    Credit where credit is due โ€“ WaPo has done its share to make those shortcomings clear.

    But what is the nation-state role in Regional and SubRegional shared-vehicle system safety?

    Given the continental and intercontinental impact of aircraft operation it makes sense to have a strong federal role in the air. The same in true, but to a lesser extent, for interRegional and interMegaRegional rail.

    Putting the federal government in the middle of safety on Regional and SubRegional shared-vehicle systems is short and long term foolishness. Beyond a requirement to keep statistics and some performance guidelines a strong federal role just removes another of the โ€˜sticksโ€™ that could constitute the โ€˜bundle of sticksโ€™ (aka, Critical Mass) of responsibilities that are needed to make Regional governance relevant.

    Level of control at level of impact.

    Fundamental Transformation of governance.

    Also in todayโ€™s WaPo:

    Neil Irwin does a wonderful job of identifying the real โ€˜freakโ€™ in SuperFreakonomics โ€“ write books that sell Business-As-Usual because that is what uninformed citizens what to believe.

    Also right on target in the Outlook section is the latest in the WaPo Five Myths series: โ€œMyths about home sweet homeowership.โ€ The Affordable and Accessible Shelter Crisis โ€“ and to a large part The Great Recession โ€“ is driven by these Myths and the misguided role of federal Agencies in promoting home ownership.

    In the pre-canned Business section the front page has two nice items. One on the worlds largest gambling venue โ€“ โ€œThat upward stock market …โ€ Did everyone notice the latest jump is based on the promise by The Fed to keep interest low and pump more cheap money into the economy to prolong the new bubble?

    The second is a tongue-in-cheek guide to selecting a broker. Ask those 8 questions and THAT broker will not be YOUR broker.

    Finally on the back page of Business, Warren Brown, does a nice job of comparing the new Mercedes S400 Hybrid ($87,950) with the Mercedes Smart Fortwo ($11,900).

    And on that topic, anyone have a guess as to how many negative comments at โ€˜advertiser appreciation dinners and seminarsโ€™ it took to kill Warrenโ€™s (or someone with his knowledge) column on the Autonomobile industry?

    Happy reading.

    EMR


  • Warner “Gets It” on Health Care Reform

    As Congress lurches forward in its campaign to “reform” a deeply flawed health care system by making it a grievously flawed system, moderate “blue dog” Democrats are emerging as a key swing constituency that can make or break any deal. In the Senate, that puts the spotlight on Mark Warner and Jim Webb.

    While Virginia’s two senators support expanding coverage to more Americans, they share a common concern, according to Olympia Meola with the Richmond Times-Dispatch: the cost of health care.

    Webb has focused on the expense of individuals’ insurance premiums. Ever the populist, he spoken out against insurance companies and their “off the charts” profit margins. His ideal approach would be a system of not-for-profit insurance companies, Meoloa says. Insurance companies, of course, are a favorite target of national Democrats, mainly because of their high administrative costs. It is not clear, however, how converting the for-profit insurance system into a not-for-profit system would do anything to bring down those costs. Stripping the industry of its profits wouldn’t accomplish much either. According to Yahoo Finance data, industry profits amount to only 3.3% of revenue.

    In contrast to the bureaucratic monstrosity emerging from the Senate, however, Webb stresses the need to create incentives that would value the quality rather than the quality of care. He does not want an “overly cumbersome, bureaucratic system.” While that mindset makes him preferable to the geniuses who want to foist layers of new bureaucracy onto the health care system via 2,000 pages of mind-numbing verbiage, I don’t sense from Meola’s article that Webb puts the emphasis fully where it really belongs.

    To my mind, Warner does. According to spokesman Kevin Hall, “The cost curve is his priority in health-care reform.” The senator has introduced amendments that would target better use of data to drive down costs and increase transparency. Says Hall: “We have a health-care system right now that rewards bad practices. We have a health-care system that rewards hospitals for multiple readmissions rather than a low admission rate. We have a health care system that rewards volume of care rather than quality of care.” Bingo.

    Rather than hobble the system with more bureaucracy and more mandates — a “solution” guaranteed to ruin productivity and quality — Warner looks for examples of what works. As one example, he cites a Virginia Commonwealth University program that assigns a primary care physician to oversee the health of uninsured patients with the goal of increasing coordination between doctors and hospitals. The program increases accountability, reduces costs and improves quality. One metric of progress: Between 2000 and 2005, emergency room visits have dropped 14%.

    Warner has emerged as a champion of the kind of win-win reform initiatives that I’ve advocated in Bacon’s Rebellion. Measures that redistribute the wealth, the obsession of most Democrats, creates losers for every winner. That zero-sum thinking may well end up sinking reform. As a former businessman, Warner understands that greater productivity and improve quality will improve the system for everyone and, in the process, make it more affordable and accessible to all.

  • Whatever Happened to Smart Growth in Chesterfield?

    For years, Marleen Durfee, a peppy Pennsylvanian who talks a mile a minute, has been the point woman in Chesterfield County when it comes to Smart Growth.
    For years, she was the lone voice in the desert crying for a stop to the wild, thoughtless development that Chesterfield’s Good Ole Boys and Girls Board of Supervisors had been fostering for three decades. Finally, in 2007, she was elected to the board with high hopes of finally bringing some sanity to county planning.
    And it seemed not a moment too soon since Chesterfield’s two big growth areas — Midlothian Turnpike and Hull Street Road — were abortions of traffic congestion, overcrowded schools and too many big boxes that had a tendency to go dark.
    Now, Ms. Durfee is in a tizzy. The reason is the “Green Monster,” a zombie-like project that keeps coming back to life no matter how many stakes are thrust into its heart. Back in the heyday of go-go growth in 1991, the Board approved plans for Magnolia Green with 4,886 homes that never seemed to get built.
    The project was split into Upper and Lower Magnolia Green and then the big recession hit. The brakes came on in an instant, sending such megaprojects into a crash. Last spring, owners tried to auction off Lower Magnolia Green but there were no bidders. It seemed that a clearly-defined border for sprawl had finally been established at approximately Woodlake along U.S. 360 and Watkins Centre along U.S. 60 in western Chesterfield County.
    Well, maybe not. It turns out that a series of developers, including Salvatore Cangiano of Leesburg who still owns Upper Magnolia Green, are considering unsolicited requests to somehow build (pick one) a new shopping mall, a research park with a D.C. university taking the lead (I hear either Georgetown or George Washington, but I have my doubts), some kind of mega mixed-use project and even a gigantic sports and concert hall on the order of Verizon Center in Washington.
    To get any of these ideas done, however, the county and private developers would have to extend the toll Powhite Parkway from where it terminates at Route 288 nine miles to U.S. 360 at a tiny crossroads called Skinquarter that consist basically of a gas station that sells fried chicken and is a place you can take your deer to get it tagged after you have shot it.
    In a story I did for Style Weekly, Cangiano said that the investors have come to him with the idea and that he has met with the county about it. He says the area that would be penetrated by the extended Powhite would be “strategically located” and that he doesn’t have typical development in mind, He is dismissive of what has been built around 360 as “small boxes.” Nor is he worried about finding financing in this incredibly difficult market. ” We have our own banks,” he told me.
    County officials won’t say what might happen but that they are just talking. As Jim Stegmaier, county administrator, told me, Chesterfield has to keep looking because badly imbalanced growth means that the county exports 30 percent of its workforce every day.
    So what’s Marleen’s role in all of this? Smart Growthers in Richmond were stunned to hear her say that she’s “excited” by the project and extending the Powhite, as she was reported as saying in Richmond’s metro daily. She told me that her idea is to remake some very bad policies that have plagued Chesterfield for years and that doing Upper Magnolia Green the right way could push the ball forward.
    But she’s taking the heat. The Chesterfield Observer notes that the local Responsible Growth Alliance, an activist group headed by Durfee for two years, doesn’t really function any more. And John Moeser, a University of Richmond fellow and planning expert, says that extending the Powhite is anything but smart growth.
    There are lots of arguments against doing so. For one thing, there are plenty of other spots to locate an office mark, a mall or an amphitheater, such as the troubled Cloverleaf Mall or the new but largely vacant Watkins Centre. Pushing the Powhite would stretch into virgin territory, although it could offer an alternative commuter route than crowded Hull Street (360).
    Any new extension would have to be a public-private deal since the state has no money. Some firms such as Australia’s TransUrban, which runs the Pocahantos Parkway, are said to be interested in it.
    The weirdest part of this strange tale is the timing. With the real estate meltdown and subprime mortgage mess having culled many weak residential projects and the commercial market taking its toll, it would seem that now is the time to start rethinking suburban sprawl. Chesterfield promised to do so since it is reconsidering its comprehensive plan at this very moment.
    Where, however, do these ideas to push highways farther and farther away from urban centers into the piney woods keep coming from? Doesn’t that violate Rule One of Smart Growth? Whatever happened to Smart Growth in Chesterfield?
    Peter Galuszka

  • NOW MARYLAND IS PLANNING SOMETHING NEW

    MARYLAND IS PLANNING A NEW SETTLEMENT PATTERN STRATEGY — OR NOT

    The AntiSmart Growthers (those who have consistently supported Business-As-Usual / dumb growth) are turning hand-springs of joy over the โ€˜newsโ€™ that, in spite of best intentions, the much ballyhooed Maryland โ€˜Smart Growthโ€™ program has not panned out.

    As noted in an earlier post, this is really OLD news. EMR and others suggested almost two decades before the legislation was enacted that there were not enough teeth in the โ€˜priority funding areaโ€™ ideas being explored to achieve success in the face of THE ROOTS OF THE HELTER SKELTER CRISIS. Of course, that was 30 years before EMR evolved a Vocabulary and Conceptual Framework to articulate his concerns.

    Now a county in Maryland that prides itself on being at the cutting edge of intelligent settlement pattern evolution has taken a step that has more promise. Perhaps.

    In the 11 November WaPo, a front page story trumpeted the passage of a new initiative: โ€œMontgomery redraws its blueprint for development: Council approves plan that supports dense but car-free growth.โ€

    The idea is a good one โ€“ intensive development in METRO station areas WITHOUT parking requirements. Just what Dr. Risse ordered (โ€œA Picture is Worth a Thousand Liesโ€ 8 September 2008). Right?

    Well yes, BUT…

    In the SAME issue of WaPo a second report by the SAME reporter tells a different story. In a Metro section there is a story titled โ€œMontgomery officials back I-270 HOT lanes: Council also picks light rail over buses for transit way project.โ€

    What is going on here? Well, for those in the dark, read David Owenโ€™s new book Green Metropolis: Why Living Smaller, Driving Less Are the Keys to Sustainability.

    While the METRO station-area strategy is a good one, the HOT lanes will provide an incentive for developing scattered Urban (primarily residential) developments in Frederick County, MD (and beyond). The residents will drive to jobs and services in the I-270 Corridor of Montgomery County and inside the Beltway.

    Making things worse, the light rail line will open new opportunities for lower intensity land use which will compete for dwellings, jobs and services that might otherwise land in the METRO station areas, further leveraging scatteration.

    Owen does a fine job of outlining why HOT lanes and light rail lines will not support sustainable settlement patterns at the SubRegional scale.

    What is the fundamental problem here? It is a matter of quantification. Long ago EMR demonstrated that if the vacant and underutilized land at half the METRO stations was used to create Balanced development โ€“ just the sort of development that Montgomery Countyโ€™s the new station-area strategy is intended to facilitate โ€“ this building envelope could accommodate all the โ€˜growthโ€™ projected to 2030 in the entire National Capital SubRegion. And that was before The Great Recession put a big question mark on ALL โ€˜growthโ€™ projections.

    Will the bright shinny METRO station idea work? Time will tell but the initial indications are not encouraging.

    EMR


  • Marking the Falling of the Berlin Wall

    The Fall of the Berlin Wall on Nov. 9, 1989 is an enormous happening worthy of celebration. Last night, I marked the event in New York by attending a special discussion by four U.S. foreign correspondents and a photographer who recorded the historic day in person.
    The reporters, including those from The New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and Newsweek, described the sense of surprise, the total joy and the underlying fear of reprisal as events throughout Eastern Europe started gaining unstoppable momentum. Borders suddenly opened in one country letting people scrape up a few belongings and race to Austria and then West Berlin as guards who used to shoot to kill didn’t seem to know what to do.
    Unfortunately, what marked the unraveling of the Communist Bloc somehow got morphed into a “fantasy” that liberal democracy would churn forward unstopped, according to the participants of the event at the German Consulate sponsored by the Overseas Press Club of which I am a member.
    Neo-cons twisted this tremendous victory, actually won by the guts and patience of millions of oppressed people, into some kind of laud for free market capitalism. Ronald Reagan got way too much credit for defeating Soviet Communism when his role was nothing compared to that of Lech Walesa or Pope John Paul II and plenty of others brave enough to demonstrate for freedom from Prague to Budapest to Gdansk.
    As Roger Cohen of the New York Times and International Herald Tribune who moderated the discussion put it, can you have material prosperity and true political freedom? In some cases,yes, but look at Communist China where that very question is offering some inconvenient contradictions that the capitalism cheerleaders might find unsettling. There’s more in terms of refrigerators but the government just shut down Twitter when participants talked about real political freedom
    For the record, I am also a member of the World Affairs Council of Greater Richmond which has a speaker, a young Time magazine editor, tonight on the same topic. I’m going to give that one a pass and save $20 because (a) the speaker was in high school in California when the Wall came down and (b) his book lauding Reagan’s role in the Wall was trashed by The Washington Post as being ridiculously simplistic.
    It is a shame that more people don’t realize what the Berlin event meant. Why, for instance, didn’t Barack Obama attend the Berlin celebrations (Hillary went) while the heads of all Europe’s states were there. Maybe is too young to remember what I do — the “duck and cover” exercises I practiced as a grade school kid in suburban DC as we waited for the Soviets to nuke us. My dad was a Navy doctor in the late 1950s and 1960s and I learned years later that if the Big One came, he had orders to some Appalachian mountain cave while my mother, sister and I got to fry in Bethesda.
    The Wall marked the end of billions of money wasted on nuclear bombers, missiles and warheads and one a two and a half war strategy by the Pentagon. The Soviets simply could not bear the cost of such expenditures which is why their empire collapsed. It didn’t have much to do with Reagan although he did help by getting religion about nukes after watching the made-for-tv movie “The Day After” in which Kansas City is destroyed. Being a Hollywood type, Reagan could learn more from movies than from briefing papers and the movie gave him the idea of ending nukes once and for all.
    What always amazed me is that the Soviets did little to stop the Wall from coming down. They had intervened forcefully in East Germany in 1953, in Hungary in 1956 and in Prague in 1968. They had massed troops but didn’t use them in Poland in the late 50s and again in the Solidarity heyday of 1980-81. Their henchmen, the East German Stasi, the Hungarian AVO and the Polish SB, did it for them.
    One reason for the weak Soviet response is that Mikhail Gorbachev still believed he could reform, not destroy, the Communist structure by being peaceful and reasonable. Another is that the Communist Chinese had just had their massacre at Tienanmen a few months before. To be sure, Gorbachev shifted to the right in 1990 and 1991 as reactionaries in the Party and KGB started rolling crackdowns in the Baltics which wanted to be free, too. Using new security troops called “OMONs” they held dress rehearsal for a coup against Gorbachev in Vilnius and Riga. Lucky for us that when the coup came against Gorbachev in 1991, it failed.
    I missed that one but was one hand for the second, much bloodier coup against Boris Yeltsin in 1993. When the Wall came down, I was in New York, working as a new editor on the international desk of Business Week. I had just returned from a three-year tour in Moscow and my wife had delivered our first child. We were working day and night trying to coordinate coverage. I don’t remember much about those months. I was too tired.
    Peter Galuszka