Bacon's Rebellion

In 1955, then-Senator John F. Kennedy wrote the book “Profiles in Courage”. The book documents eight US senators who took tremendous political risks by supporting unpopular causes. President Kennedy’s book won the Pulitzer Prize.

Everybody in America should be quite concerned about Paul Krugman’s most recent Op – Ed piece in the New York Times. Mr. Krugman is a staunch and loyal supporter of Barack Obama. However, Krugman is now saying that the current recovery may very well collapse leaving the economy in what he is calling The Third Depression. His recent Op-Ed piece can be found here.

In order to understand the magnitude of Krugman’s recent column it’s important to understand a bit about Mr. Krugman himself. Krugman is a Yale and MIT educated economist who won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2008. His academic credentials are beyond repute.

However, in addition to being a pre-eminent economist Krugman is also a liberal’s liberal. Like his credentials in economics his credentials in liberalism are also beyond repute. Mr. Krugman writes a twice weekly Op – Ed piece in the New York Times. He is a long time and bitter critic of George W. Bush to the point that he often seems to exhibit Bush Derangement Syndrome (BDS). Finally, he has written what I can only imagine to be the world’s shortest book – The Conscience of a Liberal. If you look up “liberal” in the dictionary you find Nancy Pelosi’s picture next to the definition. However, if you look up “coherent liberal” it will be Krugman’s hirsute likeness next to the definition.

For the last 18 months Mr. Krugman has been heaping praise on Barack Obama in general and Mr. Obama’s economic policies in particular. Which is why Krugman’s recent Op – Ed piece is so shocking. At first, he seems to be admitting that the New Keynesian economics theory which he and President Obama espouse has failed. However, a closer reading of the Op – Ed piece reveals that Mr. Krugman actually thinks that New Keynesian economics is just what the world needs. Unfortunately, the world is just too dumb to realize the economic healing power of the monetary printing press. Mr. Krugman finds special fault with the recent European belief that endless spending and deficits may actually be harmful. It seems that Krugman and Obama have accomplished the seemingly impossible – they have “out liberaled” Europe.

Despite all this apparently bad news I see three rays of light in an otherwise jet black sky. First, Bacon’s new book ought to be a best seller if we are really headed for a Third Depression. Hopefully, Mr. Bacon will remember all of us “little people” when we send him e-mails asking, “Hey buddy, can you spare a dime?”. Second, even uber-liberal Paul Krugman has stopped blaming Bush and moved on to the somewhat improbable thesis that it is the Europeans who are the new villains. Finally, Ed Risse’s long running predictions of doom and gloom may be coming true. Perhaps his prescription for reducing the inevitable pain will gain a wider audience.

Hoo-ah! My first column in the online op-ed section of the Washington Times:

The financial media put a positive spin on a joint statement Sunday by the wealthiest members of the Group of 20 countries that they would halve their deficits by 2013 and stabilize their debt burdens by 2016.

In the words of the Wall Street Journal’s lead story, the announcement was “a signal to international markets and domestic political audiences” that the G-20 countries “are taking seriously the need to wean themselves from stimulus spending.” Wrote the New York Times: “The action … signaled the determination of many of the wealthiest countries … to now emphasize debt reduction. And it underscored the conviction of European nations in particular that deficits represented the biggest threat to their economic stability.”

What both newspapers neglected to mention is that the goals require virtually no change in U.S. fiscal policy in the near term and only modest changes by the second half of the decade – at least if you believe the 10-year budget forecast prepared by the Obama administration. For all practical purposes, President Obama could have announced, “The Europeans can do whatever they want. We’re not budging from the status quo.” More.

Hopefully, there will be more columns to come — addressing less arcane topics than G-20 summit announcements.

Three years ago, Prince William County achieved notoriety by adopting legislation that was supposedly designed to stem illegal immigration but in reality harassed Latinos, many of whom are hard-working and law-abiding.

Bacon’s Rebellers seem to have tired of commenting on DeGrowth for now.

Much more on that topic later – first EMR considers what comes AFTER the Autonomobile and why small REALLY IS beautiful but before that…

A short item on important reading and viewing:

Bill Lucy (Prof. William H. to his friends) at UVA has a new book out titled “Foreclosing the Dream.”

EMR does not yet have a copy – the publisher (APA) is intent on slowing the economy by taking over a week to ship a book. However, based on the review in “New Urban News” and on the material on the publishers web site it is well worth ordering.

“Foreclosing the Dream” continues the theme of his last two books – the decline of ‘sub’Urban settlement patterns and revival of housing in the Core, especially close to the Zentrum and near shared-vehicle station platforms.

This time he focuses on what the location of mortgage foreclosures tells us about the future of human settlement patterns. Larry G’s neighbors will NOT be happy.

Lucy takes a nation-state wide view – the 62 largest MSAs which are the New Urban Regions of about a million population and larger. He is limited by existing data sources and lack of a Conceptual Framework to working with county data and so it is a broad brush look, but he draws some striking conclusions.

EMR has recently looked at price trends and foreclosure data by 10 Mile Radius Bands for the National Capital SubRegion and found trends which point in exactly the same direction as Lucy’s work with county data.

“Foreclosing the Dream” offers real hope that the strategy outlined in PROPERTY DYNAMICS could be an important step.

As quoted by the reviewers, Bill is still struggling with woeful Vocabulary limitations and lack of an overarching Conceptual Framework, but we will work on that with him – if he will just listen :>)

On the viewing front:

MGM (Marcellus Gas Man) suggests those interested in THE OTHER petroleum disaster tune into HOB at 9:00 PM this evening for “Gasland” on the Marcellus Shale issue.

WaPo has a review in Style today.

Have a great week.

EMR

DEGROWTH – SHRINKING TO SURVIVE THEN PROSPER

(Ed Note: Thanks to a number of constructive comments here is a better version.)

DeGrowth is a resurgent survival strategy for contemporary civilization:

Step One: The footprint of human consumption must shrink so that most humans — and ALL other species — do not have to perish just so a few humans at the top of the Ziggurat can survive for a while longer in luxury and superabundance.

Step Two: Transition to a Steady State Economy where consumption is in Balance with sustainable and renewable resources. In this way, ALL species have the opportunity to prosper because of the Balance between consumption and regeneration.

At the end of March this year 500 citizens turned up in Barcelona for the Second International Conference on Degrowth (aka, ‘DeGrowth,’ a topology which makes it clear that the focus is on the rate of GROWTH and achieving Balance).

In April a similar gathering was held in Vancouver. DeGrowth is popular in Regions such as the Vancouver New Urban Region (NUR) which is # 4 on the 2010 Mercer Quality of Living Survey Best 50. (The Barcelona NUR is #44 and the Paris NUR is # 34 on the Mercer list.)

The first international conference on DeGrowth was held in Paris in 2008. The Paris conference produced a declaration that defines ‘degrowth’ as “a voluntary transition towards a just, participatory and ecologically sustainable society.” The declaration states that “if humans do not bring global economic activity into line with societal needs, the result will be a process of involuntary and uncontrolled economic decline or collapse.” One may assume this use of ‘collapse’ is the same as ‘THE Collapse’ articulated by Jared Diamond.

From these statements it is clear that DeGrowth is in the enlightened self-interest of ALL humans, not just a few at the top of the Ziggurat.

The Barcelona conference organizers have posted a ‘virtual conference’ that provides links to the visuals from many of the key presentations. The presentations are grounded in science and history. There is data on topics that range from Happiness to the Wealth Gap and from Equity to the History of Steady State Economy. Those familiar with the classical steady state authors, Herman Daily, et. al., as well as with the recent writings of McKibben, Florida, Reich, Diamond and others, will feel right at home. Go to www.degrowth.eu and judge for yourself.

Enterprise Media did not seem interested in covering the Barcelona conference. Information about the conference turns up via Google but there are no obvious links to Enterprise Media coverage. Wikipedia has a detailed summary of ‘degrowth’ and documents why DeGrowth is a ‘resurgent’ survival strategy as opposed to a new strategy.

The OVERARCHING perspective of DeGrowth is that CONSUMPTION cannot exceed the capacity of renewable resources, PERIOD.

Most of the presentations appear to assume that humans are already in OVERSHOOT. OVERSHOOT has been temporarily masked by humans living on exploitation and consumption of Natural Capital. For this reason SHRINKING consumption is the FIRST step on the path to a sustainable trajectory. (The movie “HOME” is a good place to get a graphically powerful overview of this reality. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqxENMKaeCU )

The overall objective of DeGrowth that can be gleaned from the presentations is to peacefully and equitably evolve lower per capita consumption AND lower the number of consumptors through enlightened self-interest including rational population trends via pillow talk – not war, famine or state dictates.

DeGrowth goes far beyond the typical concern for ‘conservation.’ As far as EMR is aware, only ASAP in Charlottesville is addressing these issue in the Commonwealth.

The Bottom Line is that it will not be possible to maintain civilization with great disparity between the per capita wealth of those at the top of the Ziggurat and those at the bottom.

Further, Balance must exist WITHIN every Ziggurat at Community, Region, MegaRegion, Continent and Globe scales.

On the specific topic of “growth”:

DeGrowth advocates would agree with Edward Abbey:

“Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell.”

Perpetual growth of consumption is not just impossible, to advocate perpetual growth of consumption is immoral.

Seeking to stimulate growth / consumption and controlling the profit to promote the prosperity of a specific cohort of humans has a long tragic history. That is true whether the cohort is an:

 Ethnic group (Hitler / Aryans)
 Self appointed and / or hereditary ‘leaders’ (North Korea)
 Governance philosophy (communism for example)
 Religious belief (you choose one), or
 Economic system’

No sustained application of ‘growth for the sake of prosperity’ for a special class is even conceivable in a ‘flat’ world with:

 Wide-spread literacy,
 Instant communications / information dissemination, and
 Weapons of mass destruction.

As noted at the outset:

DeGrowth is a ‘resurgent’ survival strategy for contemporary civilization, it is not a new idea.

DeGrowth advocates that the human consumption footprint must SHRINK so that most do not have to perish in order so that for a few to prosper.

DeGrowth advocates transition to a Steady State Economy where consumption matches sustainable and renewable resources so that ALL have the opportunity to prosper, not just a few at the top of the Ziggurat.

The goal of ALL having the opportunity to prosper was the idea of the Founding Fathers in the United States 235 years ago except that:

1. ‘ALL’ did not include slaves of either sex, Females of any class, and most of the males that did not reside at the top of the Ziggurat, and

2. It was assumed (and made nation-state policy by Andrew Jackson) that there existed in the US infinite resources which could be consumed by citizens to achieve their individual health, safety and welfare.

Humans have come a long way, but they have even farther to go to achieve a sustainable trajectory.

The perspective at SYNERGY is that DeGrowth will only succeed when there is a Critical Mass of citizens that understand the need for Fundamental Transformations in settlement patterns, in governance structure and in economic systems. Anything less comprehensive will just lead to disputes akin to how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.

The SYNERGY perspective is based on a thesis that is 2,300 years old, first articulated by Aristotle:

Human settlement patterns are an organic system. See The Shape of the Future.

The successful evolution of human settlement patterns must be founded on an understanding of organic systems. Action to achieve a sustainable trajectory must start at the smallest scale – the Unit, the Dooryard and the Cluster and proceed up to the Neighborhood, the Village, the Community and the Regional scales. Dictates from ‘the state’ or ‘the nation-state’ down do not work. See TRILO-G: How to Make the World a Better Place One Alpha Community at a Time.

An education strategy that may work would be Study Circles that set Sweden on the path to a sustainable trajectory.

EMR

DeGrowth – Shrinking to Survive THEN Prosper

DeGrowth is a resurgent survival strategy for contemporary civilization.

First, the consumption footprint must shrink so that most do not have to perish for a few to survive. THEN DeGrowth advocates movement to a Steady State Economy where consumption matches sustainable and renewable resources so that ALL have the opportunity to prosper, not just a few at the top of the Ziggurat.

At the end of March 500 citizens turned up in Barcelona for the second International Conference on Degrowth (aka, DeGrowth, a topology that makes it clear the topic is ‘growth’).

It is not surprising that about 150 – 30 percent of the total – registered as being ‘from Spain’ including 19 who wanted it known they were ‘from Catalonia, thank you’ (New Urban Regionalism at work within the EU).

It may be of comfort to Euro bond holders that the other PIGS were not as well represented (Portugal – 4, Ireland -1 and Greece – 2). There were 9 representatives from the US including both Richard Register from EcoCities and Brian Czech from the Center for the Advancement of the Steady State Economy (CASSE).

In April of this year a similar gathering was held in Vancouver. The Vancouver New Urban Region is number 4th on the 2010 Mercer Quality of Living Survey Best 50. Barcelona is #44, Paris is # 34.

The First International DeGrowth conference was held in Paris in 2008. The Paris conference produced a declaration that defines ‘degrowth’ as “a voluntary transition towards a just, participatory and ecologically sustainable society.” In other words, enlightened self-interest for the majority.

The declaration states that “if humans do not bring global economic activity into line with the societal needs, the result will be a process of involuntary and uncontrolled economic decline or collapse.” In other words DeGrowth is enlightened self-interest focused on what is best for ALL humans, not just a few at the top of the Ziggurat.

In an impressive display of the power of the Internet, the Barcelona conference organizers have posted a ‘virtual conference.’ This one page provides links to the visuals from many of the key presentations. The presentations are well founded in science and history. There is data on topics that range from Happiness to the Wealth Gap and from Equity to the History of Steady State Economy. Those familiar with the work of Florida and Reich will feel right at home. Go to www.degrowth.eu and judge for yourself.

Enterprise Media did not seem to be interested in covering the Barcelona conference. Information about the conference turns up via Google but there are no obvious links to Enterprise Media outlets. Wikipedia has a detailed summary of ‘degrowth’ and documents why DeGrowth is a ‘resurgent’ survival strategy.

The OVERARCHING perspective of DeGrowth is that CONSUMPTION cannot exceed the capacity of renewable resources, PERIOD.

Most of the participants seem to assume that humans are already in OVERSHOOT. OVERSHOOTERS have been temporarily living off of the consumption of Natural Capital. For this reason SHRINKING consumption is the FIRST step to a sustainable trajectory. (The HOME movie that Groveton recommended is a good place to get a beautiful overview of this reality.)

The overall objective of DeGrowth that can be gleaned from the presentations is to peacefully and equitably evolve lower per capita consumption AND lower number of consumptors through enlightened self-interest including birth control via pillow talk – not war, famine or state dictates.

This goes far beyond the typical concern for ‘conservation and only ASAP in Charlottesville seems to be addressing this issue in the Commonwealth.

The Bottom Line is that it will not be possible to maintain civilization with great disparity between per capita wealth at the top of the Ziggurat and those at the bottom. Further, Balance must exist within the Ziggurats of Community, Region, MegaRegion, Continent or Globe scales.

On the specific topic of “growth”:

To quote Edward Abbey:

“Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell.”

Perpetual growth of consumption is not just impossible, to advocate perpetual growth of consumption is immoral.

Growth and prosperity for a specific:

Ethnic group ( Hitler / Aryans )

Self appointed and / or hereditary ‘leaders’ (North Korea)

Governance philosophy (communism for example)

Religious belief (you choose one) or

Economic system

Is not possible in ‘flat’ world with wide-spread literacy, instant communications / information dissemination and weapons of mass destruction.

As noted at the outset:

DeGrowth is a resurgent survival strategy for contemporary civilization. First, the consumption footprint must shrink so that most do not have to perish for a few to survive. THEN DeGrowth advocates movement to a Steady State Economy where consumption matches sustainable and renewable resources so that ALL have the opportunity to prosper, not just a few at the top of the Ziggurat.

That was the idea of the Founding Fathers except that ALL did not include slaves of either sex, females of any class and most of the males that did not reside at the top of the Ziggurat.

Humans have come a long ways, baby. But they have even farther to go to a sustainable trajectory.

It is the perspective at SYNERGY is that DeGrowth will only succeed when there is a Critical Mass of citizens that understand the need for Fundamental Transformations in settlement patterns, in governance structure and in economic systems.

That perspective is based on an idea that is 2,300 years old and first articulated by Aristotle:

Human settlement patterns are organic systems.

The evolution of organic systems must be founded on an understanding of those systems and must start at the smallest scale – the Unit, the Dooryard, the Cluster, the Neighborhood, the Village and the Community and work UP. Dictates from the nation-state down do not work. See TRILO-G: How to Make the World a Better Place One Alpha Community at a Time.

EMR

House Minority Whip Eric Cantor is a curious blend of contradictions. Aiming at the anti-government populism stirring about, he wants to be seen as an anti-tax and anti-spending guy. He’s also a Main Street Republican who is very comfortable with the captains of Virginia business at country club luncheons. Plus, he is an excellent fund-raiser.

The Republican primary for Virginia’s 11th Congressional District is being held today. I believe that the results of today’s primary will say a lot about the elections in November. There are two candidates in today’s Republican primary – Pat Herrity and Keith Fimian. The winner will go to the general election against freshman Congressman Gerry Connolly.

Fimian is clearly the choice of the far right wing. He is a successful businessman with limited political experience. He ran against Connolly in November, 2008 (after Republican Tom Davis decided not to seek re-election) and lost badly. He is back hoping for a second chance against Mr. Connolly.

Mr. Herrity is a Fairfax County Supervisor. Politics run deep in the Herrity clan. Pat’s father, Jack Herrity, was a long serving chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors. One of the buildings at the Fairfax County Government Center is the Herrity Building, named after Jack Herrity.

While political experience is a theme in this election it is not the central theme. The crux of this primary is a battle between the Republican activists (often referred to as the Tea Party) and the Republican establishment. Fimian is just the activists’ cup of tea, so to speak. He attends the Tea Party rallies, he rails against the possibility of a Day Labor Center in Centreville, he promises no tax hikes. Herrity is very conservative but more subdued. Herrity is even accused of committing the unpardonable sin of voting to raise taxes. In fact, the tax hike which Herrity voted for was a raise in tax rates which was lower than the fall in property assessments. However, neither math nor truth are favorite topics of the Tea Party enthusiasts.

Former Congressman Tom Davis believes that unseating Gerry Connolly is the 45th most likely chance for the Republicans to pick up a seat this November. If he’s right the Republicans would be back in charge of the House if they get far enough down his list to beat Connolly.

But they won’t beat Connolly this November.

Fimian will win today’s primary and lose against Connolly in November. Virginia’s 11th District is not a hotbed of Tea Party activism. While pledging allegiance to the Tea Party can win a primary in the 11th it won’t win a general election. Which is really too bad since Connolly needs to go.

Virginia’s Republicans are, as usual, poised to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. I expect that America’s Republicans will do the same this November.

Here is a must read for those who have ANY lingering doubts about the negative impact of Large, Private Vehicles on humans obtaining a sustainable trajectory for civilization.

“Sustainable Transport and Liveable Community Planning”

http://www.planetizen.com/node/44451

Todd Litman lays out in two short pages — with a nice graphic and lots of links for followup reading – many of the externalities that flow from reliance on Large, Private Vehicles for Mobility and Access. It is tragic that most citizens of the US have no choice.

It is even more frightening that there is Agency, Enterprise, and Institutional stonewalling of any discussion of rational alternatives – such as Fundamental Transformation of human settlement patterns. That is one reason why an understanding of naive reality (See “Roadblock”) is so important. Also see THE NEXT BIG THING, forthcoming.

Those who read EMR’s work – e.g. THE PROBLEM WITH CARS, “Interstate Crime,” etc., know that EMR frequently cites Todd Litman. Litman is the founder and executive director of the Victoria Transport Policy Institute. EMR met Litman at TRB (The National Academy of Science’s Transportation Research Board) years ago and follows his work with interest.

Yes, there are ramifications of Autonomobile impact that Litman still underestimates. However, Litman’s work – and Joe Passonneau’s exposition of the impact of the Interstate Defense Highway System construction cost limiting strategies, the unintended wealth transfers and their externality impacts – are lights at the end of a long dark tunnel constructed by the Autonomobile Industrial Complex.

Along with careful analysis of the Texas Transportation Institute data (as opposed to the spin put on it to please the Enterprises and Institutions that sponsor TTI) and a few others sources, Litman is a critical source of realistic perspectives on Mobility and Access.

It is good to see VTPI moving into the mainstream. Litman’s work is one of the reasons the Business-As-Usual types (stirred up by the Autonomobile Industrial Complex) are apoplectic over the US DOT / US HUD / US EPA focus on ‘liveability.’

Read and enjoy!

EMR

One of the frustrating thing about Bacon’s Rebellion is how quickly important discussions decompose to the usual dogmatic lines of the AEI or Cato Institute or what Glenn Beck or some other conservative radio jokey just said.

THE LONG, TORTUROUS – PERHAPS IMPOSSIBLE – PATH TO FUNCTIONAL AND SUSTAINABLE HUMAN SETTLEMENT PATTERNS

This perspective was originally titled: LOCATION-VARIABLE COSTS – HOUSING LOCATION RELATED TO JOBS. The intent was to amplify the comments by TMT and others following Peter G’s post “Public-Private May Get Overhaul” on public / private transportation ‘projects.’

EMR will get back to location-variable costs and to Job / Housing location synergies in a moment but first:

SOME IMPORTANT BACKGROUND READING

The current issue of Miller-McCune has a compelling essay on the difficulty of overcoming “naive realism” – deeply held but superficial beliefs that have negative impacts on individuals and on society.

Humans find it comfortable, and often compelling, to hold onto simple (and often simplistic) views of complex conditions. This is a variation on what Jared Diamond calls ‘traditional values’ that lead humans down the path to Collapse. Recognizing naive realism is central to understanding the critical importance of human settlement patterns and to developing consensus on the path to functional and sustainable distribution of human activity.

The topic of the Miller-McCune essay by Christie Aschwanden is the difficulty of shifting from simplistic ‘beliefs’ about medical procedures and self-medications to what are called ‘evidence based medical guidelines” based on the best current research.

The cases examined by Aschwanden are:

Long distance runners popping nonsteroidal anti-inflammatorys (NSAIDs) during endurance challenging runs,

The recent U.S. Preventive Services Task Force recommendations on mammography, and

Treatment of back pain.

EMR is not a medical doctor however his Household has had direct, personal experience with NSAIDs and their risks, with mammography success and failure (and similar testing for other cancers) as well as 47 years of experience with back pain and the x-rays, MRIs, exercises and medications to address back pain.

Bottom Line: READ “Evidence Is Only Part of the Story” (print version) “Convincing the Public to Accept New Medical Guidelines (on line version) at http://www.miller-mccune.com/health/convincing-the-public-to-accept-new-medical-guidelines-11422/

The article is ‘right on’ with respect to medical practice but there is a MUCH bigger issue as the print version’s title suggests.

The difficulty of overcoming ‘naive realism’ is key to developing a Critical Mass for support for Fundamental Transformation of human settlement patterns.

How does medical practice relate to human settlement patterns?

In two ways:

First, the human body is a complex organism. Human settlement patterns are far more complex organic systems that are the result of billions of human actions and inactions. (See discussion of why human settlement patterns are organic systems and what that means for anyone trying to understand human settlement patterns – e.g. aggregation and disaggregation of component parts of organic systems – in The Shape of the Future.)

Second, even if there were not organism / organic system parallels, the importance of naive perceptions – and the genetic proclivities which underlie them – apply in both cases.

Myths rule human actions with respect to settlement pattern preferences and decisions.

“The Truth” is not enough to change behavior and the medical examples in Aschwanden’s essay are powerful examples of that reality.

In one of the medical examples:

“Growth of a cancer is BAD and early detection is the primary issue to be concerned about” is a widely held belief that stands in the way of the most effective ways to protect the most humans from cancer.

In a settlement pattern example:

“Growth is GOOD and the only issue is how to foster growth and development.” (This Myth is related not just to LOCATION or cumulative impact of growth but to “growth” itself which will be the topic of a future perspective “DeGrowth – Shrinking to Survive and THEN to Prosper.”)

The context and nature of “growth”is just one of thousands of naive beliefs that confound and block the path to evolving functional and sustainable human settlement patterns.

CREATING CITIZEN CONSENSUS

The comments on the 27 May 2010 post “Public-Private May Get Overhaul” by Peter G. diverged from public / private partnerships into tax districts and specifically the VA Route 28 Tax District. There are a number of good comments and information in the string about the VA Route 28 Tax District.

After coming to grips with the tax district topic, TMT changed horses. He said that he questioned the overarching goal of Job / Housing proximity. EMR will get back to this issue in a moment but first let us examine why naive reality is so important in this context.

After an anonymous commentor who referrers to herself as ‘Observer’ laid out the need for citizen consensus this way:

“A Critical Mass of citizens must understand the need for Fundamental Transformations and support a comprehensive program (to achieve those Transformations).”

TMT said:

“This is tilting at windmills. Complex solutions that people don’t understand and understand to be fair will not be adopted.”

How right TMT is!

That is why EMR spent a decade researching, writing and editing The Shape of the Future.

As those who have read the book know, EMR starts out with Nine Fundamental Theses and articulates Five Natural Laws derived from the settlement patterns that have actually been built over the last 60 years in the US.

The first Volume of the book articulates the absolute requirement for a robust Vocabulary and a comprehensive Conceptual Framework with which to discuss and understand human settlement patterns. EMR also articulated Regional Metrics to facilitate Quantification of the organic components of human settlement pattern.

Before he would agree to pen the Foreword to The Shape of the Future, then Secretary of the Smithsonian, I Michael Heyman insisted that the ideas for moving citizens toward a sustainable path that took up over 500 pages of the Volume II in the Roman and Gargoyle Drafts of the book be organized into simple, easy to understand strategies. The result was the Six Overarching Strategies that make up PART FOUR of The Shape of the Future.

After The Shape of the Future as completed in 2000, EMR and LTR crafted HANDBOOK. A revised edition is now PART ELEVEN of TRILO-G. HANDBOOK articulates a Three Step Process to create strategies that guide the evolution of specific Communities, SubRegions and New Urban Regions toward a sustainable economic, social and physical trajectory.

In 2003 EMR created a SubRegional citizen education and certification program titled “Shaping the Future.” A description of this program can be found in TRILO-G – PART FOUR – THE USE AND MANAGEMENT OF LAND. A overview of settlement pattern evolution in the Piedmont of Virginia includes dissection of the phrase “just twice as many dots” which is a perfect example of naive reality. “Shaping the Future” documented that before a HANDBOOK process can be started there must be a Critical Mass of citizens who understand the need for such an effort. The result of effort to articulate a citizens education process in 2003 to 2005 was PROPERTY DYNAMICS which is profiled in PART TWELVE of TRILO-G.

As part of the “Shaping the Future” program three PowerPoint programs were created. “Five Critical Realities” and “The Physics of Gridlock” are included in their original form on The Shape of the Future, 4th PrintingCD. The third. “The New Urban Region Conceptual Framework” was revised and expanded and is included on the TRILO-G CD.

Building on the foundation laid down in The Shape of the Future, these PowerPoints are an attempt to make the understanding human settlement pattern dysfunction as simple as possible.

As suggested by LINER NOTES, TRILO-G provides a road map to a ‘unified field theory of humans settlement patterns.’

Every one of these efforts has been an attempt to lay out “the truth” based on what has actually happened on the ground.

Now there is the obstacle of ‘naive reality’ and proof that even with respect to ones individual health, Myths prevail in spite of the best medical research.

This brings us back to the basic question:

Will the genetic proclivities that got humans to this point in the process of civilization fail to get humans farther? Will the belief in “naive truth” prevent humans from obtaining a sustainable trajectory?

NOW BACK TO THE IMPORTANCE OF PROXIMITY IN JOBS / HOUSING BALANCE

In the comments following the “Public-Private May Get Overhaul” post, TMT said:

“Observer, I fall off EMR’s wagon on the issue of living and working in the same close area.

“It might have worked years ago, but with both spouses/domestic partners generally working and with the general lack of job security, the odds that a family can live and work in close proximity to each other for more than a short period of time are slim to none, IMO. I’ve never heard a good answer to this question.”

Observer answered that challenge this way (with minor edits for clarification agreed to by Observer:

“TMT the answer is simple:

“Fairly allocate the location-variable costs and then you and your Household can live where so ever they want.

“Here is why:

“If you are fortunate enough to exist near the top of the Ziggurat, you can live in a place like Groveton does with not a whit of guilt because you are paying the full cost of your decisions.

“If you are fortunate enough to exist near the top of the Ziggurat and:

1) Your Agency, Enterprise or Institution relies on the efforts of some who exist anywhere below the top of the Ziggurat, or if

2) You care how much goods and Services cost or how much energy and other resources are consumed in your Region;

“You will be wise to support Jobs with Housing in close, convenient proximity for ALL who hold those Jobs as the FIRST step toward a Balance of Jobs / Housing / Services / Recreation / Amenity.

“That is true if you are an officer in a software company, a lawyer, the regional VP for Wal*Mart or are just “clipping coupons.”

“You will not have a whit of guilt in this case either because:

“For 60 years the market has shown – and research documents beyond a shadow of a doubt – that those who occupy 75 percent of the Households greatly prefer these locations.

“The other 25 percent of Households (those with small children in the Household) have historically had a lower percentage who favor these settlement patterns. That is because they have not yet realized that, as Prof. Risse has noted:

“When the oldest child gets big enough to kick a soccer ball into the flower bed it is time to move to a Cluster with at least 30 persons per acre in a Neighborhood with at least 20 persons per acre. At these densities (10 persons per acre at the Community scale) children can walk to a play field as well as to soccer practice, piano lessons, get a quart of milk and they can walk to elementary, middle and high school. That is all possible in any Planned New Community and many Planned New Villages build between 1962 and 1990 in the US.”

“This level of Mobility and Access is also possible in existing settlement patterns that have been revived and renewed.

“There are those who are speculating with their primary residence and those who hope to pocket an unearned windfall from land speculation and / or from building dwellings that are sold for prices that do not reflect their total cost that will try to obfuscate these fact but they ARE facts.

“They are facts about:

“Market preference and

“The most convenient places to raise children.

[It does not take a rocket scientist to see the arguments against these facts as a pure case of naive reality. As comments on this Blog document, those who do not want to believe the facts about a more complex reality will twist, squirm, question – and some will insult and demean – to avoid even acknowledging the complex reality beyond the simple bromides and Myths.]

“As to the two partners working is different places there are several responses:

“First, that is what shared-vehicle systems are designed to address. An efficient system of shared vehicles take care of the few high value trips citizens need to take outside the station-area.

“Second if costs are fairly allocated it may not seem so attractive to jump to a better paying job if the TOTAL cost turns out to make that less than an intelligent move.

“The Household’s decision to stay put helps Dooryard, Cluster, Neighborhood and Village stability.

“It also make it more likely that citizens will treat one another with more respect. That is because the option of telling a Clustermate to shove it when they comment on where your dog relives himself is far less rational.

“Finally, for those who just have to jump from Job to Job or partner to partner, Richard Florida makes a good argument for renting in his new book “The Great Reset.”

“Hope that helps:

“Observer”

That is all correct but EMR would add a few additional notes because this is such a critical issue.

Citizens and their Organizations must:

STOP subsidizing TOO Big Houses in dysfunctional locations, and

STOP subsidizing transportation alternatives that, regardless of how much they are subsidized will not allow:

Everyone to go wherever they want, whenever they want to go there and arrive in a timely manner.

The obverse of the last statement is another naive reality: The Large, Private Vehicle Mobility Myth.

Citizens, Households, Agencies, Enterprises and Institutions cannon afford to continue to pay those subsidies.

The good news is that even HUD is now cranking up location efficient programs.

But how to overcome ‘naive realism’ and the power of Myths?

A place to start is an understanding of the Five Natural Laws of Human Settlement.

BACK TO THE START

Later Observer said in answer to a question with respect to the gasoline tax addressed to EMR:

“EMR is apparently out of range and so I have no way to find out for sure but I suspect he would agree with Mr. Bacon:

“Raising the gas tax is the easiest first step.

“With tolls it is hard to sort fish from fowl. Because of the design of the Interstates it is hard to sort ‘commuters’ from InterRegional traffic.

“The bigger issue, which EMR has made clear often is that one simple tax or fee on this or that is only a band aid.

[And here comes the sentence that kicked off the naive realism discussion.]

“A Critical Mass of citizens must understand the need for Fundamental Transformations and support a comprehensive program [to achieve those Fundamental Transformations.]

“Anything less will doom contemporary, technology-based civilization.

“Sort of like a leaking well in the Gulf of Mexico. The longer nothing is done, the worse it will get until there comes a point of no return.

“Observer”

That is a good answer and is included here to put in context the sentence that TMT disliked and to demonstrate why naive reality, aka Myths are so damaging in the voting booth and in the marketplace.

Oh yes, TMT’s question:

“What four understandable and fair steps, besides raising the gas tax, would make incremental progress to EMR’s goal?”

Well, the Six Overarching Strategies are a place to start – once one has a grasp of the reality of human settlement patterns.

EMR