Bacon's Rebellion

My Boomergeddon project is winding down, so it’s on to the next one. This time, I’m entering the no-spin zone…. I’m not peddling my own opinions and nostrums, I’m peddling those of the brightest minds in the public policy arena: think tank scholars. I strip out all the op-eds and blog posts and digest the best — the backgrounders and research reports.

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“It shows that issues touched by the Civil War haven’t left us. That’s why it’s important to understand where the 14th amendment came form in the first place. Every time we think this story is behind us, we find that it is not. Slavery is the great sin of this country’s history, followed by nearly 100 years of segregation. We can’t think we can just put it behind us. The Civil War is woven into all the hard questions about American society. It involves the powers of the state versus the federal government just this week about health care. There are two things here. One strand is how federalism works. The other is about the place of race and injustice in our society. These two things are always weaving together. The sesquicentennial gives us a way to see that this is all part of the same story.”

Richmond may be a city of monuments to Confederate generals. But if you go to other Southern cities such as Charleston, S.C, you see them marketing the “Confederacy” to tourists with the flags and uniforms. You don’t see that here. Somehow it’s OK there but not here. Why?

“Richmond was the capital of the Confederacy. We’ve had one struggle after the other about this and it’s not productive. You’ve had the struggle over the floodwall; the Lincoln statue. One of the best days I have had in Richmond was at the unveiling of the Civil Rights Memorial at the capitol. African-Americans in Farmville began a moral revolution in this country.

“Richmond had half the battles of the Civil War taking place 30 miles from here. Charleston had one day in the Civil War when it fires on Fort Sumter. Richmond, on the other hand, was the center of suffering for so long.”

For the complete interview, read Style.

Peter Galuszka

The New York Times has published an awesome tool for visualizing human settlement patterns. I could play with it all day long! The tool, “Mapping America: Every City, Every Block,” breaks down the nation into Census tracts and displays the population with a dot for every 1,000 people in the map scale seen to the left. (As a cool aside, the dots are color coded by race, making it possible to get a sense of how segregated or integrated different communities are.)

Thus, we can see that the New York metropolitan area — the NY Times’ home turf — is one of the mostly densely settled, if not the most densely settled, places in the country.

We can also see that the Washington metro- politan area, by national standards, is densely populated in the urban core but that the human settlement patterns outside the core are highly scattered, both on the Virginia side of the Potomac as well as the Maryland side. This vivid, high-altitude view (which is the same scale, by the way, as the New York map above) depicts what people imprecisely refer to as “suburban sprawl,” or what EMR and I refer to as scattered, disconnected, low-density human settlement patterns.

Now, let’s zoom in for a closer look at the Virginia side of the Washington metro area. Here we can see the truth in EMR’s oft-stated dictum that if all of Northern Virginia were settled as compactly as Arlington and Alexandria — hardly examples of dystopic density — the entire population could fit into an area the size of Fairfax County. If the region’s population were that compact, imagine the possibilites for creating the same kind of alternative transportation systems — both bus and heavy rail — that allows Arlington to boast of the highest rate of mass transit ridership in the country outside of New York! (At this scale, one dot equals 500 people.)

Finally, let’s take a look at RoVa (the Rest of Virginia), in particular my home town of Richmond, which I love dearly in nearly every way but its extraordinarily inefficient human settlement patterns — a flaw that ultimately may prove to be its economic undoing. Here you can clearly see two small patches of moderate density development (in the Fan, the blue patch, meaning mostly white people live there, and in Church Hill, the green patch, meaning mostly African-Americans live there). You can see low-moderate density in western Henrico County (the upper left-hand quadrant), while the rest is extraordinarily low-density development. Richmonders periodically fantasize about supporting light rail transit but, as the maps shows, the scattered, low-density distribution of the population makes the idea a cruel delusion.

Hampton Roads is no more densely settled than the Richmond area, if you care to check the map. Smaller cities like Roanoke, Lynchburg and Charlottesville are even lower density. Just imagine how expensive it is to provide infrastructure and municipal services to a such a scattered, low-density population. Yes, there are costs associated with providing services to people in an extremely dense environment, too. I’m not suggesting that Virginia should let its urban cores evolve into mini-Manhattans. But I am suggesting that the sweet spot for providing infrastructure is a density comparable to that in Arlington and Alexandria.

So far the comments following INFRASTRUCTURE MEDIA raise few serious questions. EMR addressed one and will try to get to a second one but there is one inquiry that deserves special attention. It is buried so deep in musings, cuteness, irrelevant reminiscences, misconceptions, Idea Spam and Intentional Information Sabotage that few may have gotten to it so it will be addressed here.

Burying relevant observations and questions is yet another demonstration why THE LITMUS TEST is critical.

The fact that there are few thoughtful comments is evidence that ALMOST NO ONE is willing to seriously consider looking into the ABYSS that is life in the Post Autonomobile Age – especially in the US.

Richard Florida – and many others – contend that the Autonomobile Age is almost over. An ever growing number have been predicting this since 1925 but the evidence is now overwhelming that dominance of the Large, Private Vehicle is in decline – except in the imagination of those who are promoting INFRASTRUCTURE MANIA.

Yes, humans will use vehicles and yes, some vehicles will be operated exclusively by their owners but no amount of subsidy can sustain for much longer a condition where Large, Private Vehicles are the dominant mode by which Urban humans achieve Mobility and Access. It is a matter of physics as well as economics.

THE QUESTION IS:

At 11:28 PM on the day before Groundhog’s Day Jim Bacon asked:

“Ed, I’m curious about this statement:

“At the present time half of the working adults in the US cannot afford to buy and maintain a Large, Private Vehicle that is fuel efficient AND safe to drive on the Interstate Highway System.”

“I’m wondering what you base that upon. If you said that half the working adults cannot afford a “new” large, private vehicle, then I would find that plausible. But the average age of the auto fleet is close to 10 years now. There are a lot of depreciated, inexpensive second-hand cars on the market.

“Admittedly, the older the car, the more expensive the maintenance. That’s probably a bigger cost than gasoline.

“Still, I’m wondering what you base the statement on.”

EMR is glad Mr. Bacon raised this question!

SOME BACKGROUND

The statement quoted above is from the current draft of WHAT FOLLOWS THE AUTONOMOBILE (Forthcoming).

Most know that with respect to the Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis, the fact that X percent of the Y cohort cannot afford the median priced house is an eye catcher. But is there a similar hook for the Mobility and Access Crisis?

To find shelter when there is no Affordable Housing close to Jobs / Services / Recreation / Amenity, citizens have been forced to seek Housing in locations that are Accessible only with Large, Private Vehicles.

This has made the Mobility and Access Crisis worse and worse each year as TTI documents in its annual Urban Mobility Study.

Some understand that even within the settlement patterns that are designed to optimize use of Large, Private Vehicles these vehicles have NEVER been able to provide Mobility and Access to over half the individuals in the resident population. The majority of the population is too young, too old or too unfirm to drive and park Large, Private Vehicles.

Even in Planned New Communities with:

● Densities as low as 10 persons per acre at the Alpha Community scale,

● Abundant sidewalks, bike paths,

● Many Clusters and Neighborhoods with higher density, some with mixed uses, and

● A concerted effort to provide non-Large, Private Vehicle Mobility and Access,

The percentage of citizens that could use Large, Private Vehicles by themselves has almost never been over 50 percent. This is because these places tend to attract larger families and do not provide the amenities sought by the Households without children.

It is clear to a growing number – those who bother to consider the facts – that even with free fuel and Gee Whiz technology Large, Private Vehicles cannot provide Mobility and Access for the majority of citizens in large Urban agglomerations. The reasons are spelled out in THE PROBLEM WITH CARS.

There is NOT ONE large Urban agglomeration on the planet that does not have one or more shared vehicle systems. The Urban areas with:

● The highest value per square foot of built space,

● The highest value per square foot of land area, and

● The most voluntary visitors (aka, tourists)

Are almost always served by shared vehicle systems.

The days of Dallas, Houston, Denver and Salt Lake thumbing their noses at shared vehicle systems is history.

Pedestrian and bike trips are the fastest growing mode of travel in almost every large Urban agglomeration except in China. That will change now that there are new taxes on private cars in recognition of the fact that shared-vehicles and pedestrian / bike movement is necessary to support large Urban agglomeration. The vast Chinese investment in High Speed Rail is a drop in the bucket compared to the cost of an attempt – which would eventually fail – to provide the Mobility and Access to which Chinese citizens aspire via Large (or small), Private Vehicles.

AND AFTER THE CAR?

To move past THE PROBLEM and consider what comes AFTER the car, a new perspective was needed. That ‘hook’ caught the attention of Jim Bacon.

The statement:

“At the present time half of the working adults in the US cannot afford to buy and maintain a Large, Private Vehicle that is fuel efficient AND safe to drive on the Interstate Highway System.”

is crafted to make clear that:

● Even “working adults” – and not just welfare slackers, meandering teens and old folks – are in need of alternatives to Large, Private Vehicles. (Including the able-bodied but unemployed would increase the percentage but detract from the focus.)

● Buy AND maintain in SAFE condition are important parameters because when a vehicle is over 3 or 4 years old (out of the dealer’s ‘free service’ sales incentive) the cost of maintenance increases dramatically and the more Gee Whiz technology, the higher the cost to keep the vehicle up to spec and thus ‘safe’ and fuel efficient.

● Fuel efficiency is critical because of the rising cost of energy. Fuel efficiency and maintenance go hand in hand.

● The test of “Safety on the Interstate System” is the key.

Old and poorly maintained cars are not safe to drive at high speed, especially on ‘mixed-traffic’ expressways with sleep deprived over-the-road-drivers pushing long haul rigs with multiple safety violations much less other unsafe drivers in unsafe cars.

Drop the Interstate speed limit to 50 mph and those who could afford a ‘safe’ car would increase by at least 10 percent. Pandering politicians keep raising the speed limit to the determent of fuel efficiency AND safety.

If there was a rational criteria of visibility FROM a vehicle, the number of cars that are deemed ‘safe’ to drive on the Interstate system would go down by about the same amount as decreasing the speed limit would raise the qualifying vehicles.

There have been aerodynamic cars since the mid 20s but only when fuel efficiency became a concern did wind drag become a major design consideration. The design to increase efficiency has drastically reduced visibility from the car.

As EMR pointed out to Larry Gross:

The strategy of autonomobile makers has been:

● Deliver as little real change as possible each year,

● Induce purchase of new vehicles as often as possible,

● Make the vehicles as expensive as possible so that the profit per unit is as high as possible.

All these
factors increase the percentage who cannot afford a safe, fuel efficient vehicle.

IS THE 50 PERCENT NUMBER PRECISE?

With so many variables it is hard to say but using the criteria for ‘affordability’ for location efficient mortgages and other parameters the number ‘half the working adults” is probably ‘conservative.’ EMR is ALWAYS conservative.

If drive-til-you-qualify is thought of as the way that Affordable and Accessible Housing is provided for those at the bottom of the food chain, then long distances on the Interstate system – or similar limited access roadways – will be required.

Actually, very long distance commuting has been on the decline for 30 years according to Census Data. But that is not the issue. Being forced to own a Large, Private Vehicle to travel 3, 5 or 10 miles contributes to the cumulative problem of space to drive and park and the disaggregation of Urban fabric.

If one has to own a jalopy to drive 15 miles a day to work, the settlement patterns makes these citizens a slave to both economic and spacial parameters.

More in WHAT COMES AFTER THE AUTONOMOBILE.

Oh yes, it looks like the pandering politicians of the Commonwealth will join hands to approve the $4 Billion Beg, Barrow and Steal Anti Mobility and Access Boondoggle.

Even if it cannot be stopped now, it will die soon due to its short-sighted design.

At least one can say “WHAT DID I TELL YOU!!”

AARRRGH SQUARED!!

EMR

!! AARRRGH !!

Oh, the frustration!

As Peter Galuszka has noted, EMR has not posted much at BRB of late.

This is NOT just due to travel, holidays, snow or even the process of aging.

At SYNERGY there are a number of new projects and Perspectives well on the way to publication BUT

The PLAN was to get out the next version of CITIZEN MEDIA that includes THE LITMUS TEST before other items were published.

Many of those who have worked on THE LITMUS TEST (TLT) believe TLT is an important step toward protecting intellectual inquiry from Idea Spam – as distinguished from Personal Relationship Spam and Enterprise Spam which are two more widely recognized forms of electronic communication pollution.

TLT is intended to provide a firewall to protect citizens not just from Idea Spam but from Intentional Information Sabotage.

Alas, progress on the CITIZEN MEDIA redraft is slow; TOO SLOW when there is an immediate threat that can undermine peace, security, economic prosperity, social stability and environmental sustainability in the Commonwealth and across the US.

That danger is INFRASTRUCTURE MANIA. Agencies are about to waste $ Trillions on infrastructure.

Both the Elephant Clan and the Donkey Clan are posed to dump outrageous sums on outrageously wasteful infrastructure in the name of ‘jobs,’ ‘recovery’ and ‘economic growth’

The President’s State of the Union speech contains non-specific language proposing nation-wide ‘action.’

In the Commonwealth, The Clown Show is about endorse pandering politicians scheme to dump $4 Billion onto a road builders, equipment suppliers and land speculators wish list.

Mr. Bacon has focused on the debt that will flow from this activity. This IS a major concern, BUT…

Debt and lining political contributors pockets is just the tip of the iceberg.

STRAWS IN THE WIND

Earlier this week when Neal Pierce (Washington Writers Group) published “New Infrastructure Strategy: Yes, Build – BUT” EMR hoped that he could just cite Pierce toss out an attaboy and keep working on CITIZEN MEDIA. http://citiwire.net/post/2496

No such luck. Neal’s ‘buts’ are valid BUT pale compared to the real reasons to be concerned about wasting Trillions of dollars on ‘infrastructure.’

INFRASTRUCTURE TO SUPPORT WHAT?

As explored at more length below in the section on GREEN INFRASTRUCTURE, infrastructure is NOT a free standing thing. What is called “infrastructure” is ONLY REALLY INFRASTRUCTURE if supports a needed and functional STRUCTURE – in this case, the built environment to support human civilization (aka, functional human settlement patterns).

Otherwise it is just a waste of time and money.

As spelled out in THE PROBLEM WITH CARS – PART THREE of TRILO-G the Autonomobile is a primary cause of dysfunctional human settlement patterns. Why build more of what made Urban settlement patterns dysfunctional?

WHAT COMES AFTER THE AUTONOMOBILE? (Forthcoming) is a follow up to THE PROBLEM WITH CARS which articulates the physical and economic reasons why Large, Private vehicles cannot provide Mobility and Access to Urban citizens.

One of the key reasons is that:

At the present time half of the working adults in the US cannot afford to buy and maintain a Large, Private Vehicle that is fuel efficient AND safe to drive on the Interstate Highway System.

In the context of:

● The rising cost of energy and Peak Petroleum, and

● The demonstrated inability of Agencies to build and maintain infrastructure required to operate Large, Private Vehicles;

There obviously must be a successor to the Autonomobile if Urban citizens are to have Access and Mobility.

These facts also mean that Agencies must solve the Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis if there is to be a solution to the Mobility and Access Crisis.

Both are solved ONLY if there are functional, Balanced and sustainable human settlements.

Building more of the infrastructure that caused settlement pattern dysfunction will not just create more debt, it will make EVENTUALLY solving the Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis and the Mobility and Access Crisis much more expensive, and perhaps impossible.

THE ROADWAY CHOIR

How does one know that Billions at the Regional scale and Trillions at the nation-state scale need to be thrown at ‘the infrastructure problem?’

The Roadway Choir has been singing that song for decades.

The annual reaffirmation of faith in the Access and Mobility Myth from the Texas Transportation Institute (TTI) arrive on 20 January. TTI’s Urban Mobility Report STILL has the same tragic flaws that were pointed out in Column # 39 (of 131) “Spinning Data, Spinning Wheels” back on 20 September 2004.

It also continues to be used to justify spending money to solve the WRONG problem as pointed out in “Driven Apart” See DRIVEN APART, FINALLY at BRB 6 October 2010.

(By the way, the comments following this post document need for THE LITMUS TEST as noted by CRS at the end of the comments.)

In a ONE PAGE follow-up to Driven Apart, Julia NAILS the problems with the TTI report. Note the reference to “land use patterns.” Read it and weep.

http://www.ceosforcities.org/news/entry/2958/2010-umr-remains-a-flawed-and-misleading-guide-to-urban-transportation

The Transportation Research (sic) Board (TRB) annual meeting was just held in the Federal District. The TRB meeting is the annual pilgrimage of The Roadway Choir to the Mecca of transportation funding and dysfunction. Ken Orski reports The Roadway Choir is STILL in full throat with the same old songs. (EMRs favorite is “Give Us More Money to Spend on the Roadway to Gridlock,” a true classic!)

(Observer has suggests that if VDOT spent as much on SLUG LINES each month as they did on hotel bills and entertainment at TRB, they would reduce congestion twice as much – by any useful measure – as the $4 Billion serving of asphalt pork. Yes there are some Shared Vehicle System spices but the real money is in Autonomobile pork. See http://www.slug-lines.com/

THE ENVIROS

Those who claim to be the Anti-Roadway Choir are not helping much.

In the context of the $4 Billion pork package a leader of the environment / smarter growth crowd is quoted as saying:

“Our nation is broke – we cannot afford to try to build our way out of congestion”

That statement sends the WRONG message. There are many who still believe with enough tax cuts for the rich and reductions in NPR spending, ‘our nation’ will be rich…

To paraphrase Will Owen: “No matter how much money is thrown at the problem, there are almost NO infrastructure solutions to the Mobility and Access Crisis.” See Chapters 13,14 and 25 of THE SHAPE OF THE FUTURE, THE PROBLEM WITH CARS – PART THREE of TRILO-G and WHAT FOLLOWS THE AUTONOMOBILE (Forthcoming).

Saying ‘the nation is broke’ (which Bacon and others say is yet some ways off) is continuing the practice by what is now called “The Environmental NGOs and their Enterprise Partners” to reach for the LOW HANGING RHETORICAL FRUIT.

The message must be FUNDAMENTAL TRANSFORMATION!

Ya HEAR?

CONVENTIONAL OBLIVIOUSNESS

Then there are well-meaning but poorly informed who clap for The Roadway Choir.

Two comments on BRB will illustrate this problem.

In the comments following “The Vice Tightens,” 14 January:

At 9:01 AM on 15 Jan 11:

“Jim, you and EMR have some very interesting long term ideas about transportation and land use. However, your ideas will take a long
time to organize, enact, plan and implement. And those are just the pre-requisite steps before the ideas start to have an impact. In the meantime?”

These ideas are NOT “long term.” As noted REPEATEDLY the biggest change will be inside the heads of those who believe Business-As-Usual is an intelligent or sustainable strategy.

And at 9:11 AM on 15 Jan 11:

“As an aside, here are the transportation projects which could be funded by the additional debt.”

Citing a VDOT laundry list is just clapping for The Roadway Choir.

ON HIGH SPEED RAIL

One of the things current administration has gotten right about infrastructure is to appoint Ray LaHood as Secretary of US DOT. For a very good summary of the perspective of Joe Boardman AmTrak’s President.

http://www.masstransitmag.com/print/Mass-Transit/Backbone-of-an-Industry/1$13234

Boardman does a fine job of putting rial and High Speed Rail (HSR) in context of US infrastructure needs. One problem he doe not focus on the key to HSR success – the pattern and density of land use within half a mile of the HSR platforms, including across the platform transfers to other Shared Vehicle Systems. (Full disclosure: Although EMR does not think he has ever met Boardman, because of where he has worked before AmTrak, there are probably at least a dozen shared acquaintances.)

In the same issue of Mass Transit Magazine there is a great (greatly misleading) story about how to end oil dependence. T. Boone Pickens says “Hydrofrac the whole country” and it will result in a 100 year supply of fuel for Large, Private Vehicles.” And after 100 years, hydrofraced water tables (Thank you MGM) and investment in a whole new energy infrastructure with MORE DYSFUNCTIONAL Urban settlement patterns ?

Well, Collapse.

http://www.masstransitmag.com/print/Mass-Transit/Ending-Our-Oil-Dependence/1$13235

In a 4 Dec 10 post on his Boomergeddon Blog, Jim Bacon jumped on “the railroad to nowhere” band wagon.

http://boomergeddon.us/wordpress/2010/12/04/the-rail-line-to-nowhere/#comments

Not wanting to let this pass, EMR posted the following comment which sums up his view on HSR:

Before Jim races on to whack another mole…

First:

It is counterproductive to talk about the usefulness of ANY infrastructure investment unless it is in the context of the settlement pattern that this infrastructure is intended to support.

Second:

With respect to High Speed Rail (HSR) the settlement pattern of concern is that within half a mile of the station platforms (including across-the-platform transfers to other modes) the line between stations should take the most reasonable, least costly, lowest environmental impact route.

Third:

Any discussion of HSR must be considered in the context of whether the US policy is to evolve a functional and sustainable settlement pattern and a surface transport system to support this settlement pattern or if the nation-state policy / goal will continue to follow an unsustainable trajectory that involves subsidizing dysfunctional systems that rely on Large, Private Vehicles and Aircraft on routes of under 1000 miles.

Fourth:

One must understand the geographical context of any discussion.

California has two MegaRegions about 500 miles apart – that is the sweet spot for HSR.

Topography, physics and economics dictate that there are two ways to get from the Cores of one MegaRegion to the Cores of the other.

One route is up the Pacific Ocean side of the Coast Range which has lots of places where one would NOT want to run a REAL HSR for many economic, social and physical reasons.

The other route is via the Central Valley which has a lot of space and not much else. There are very similar, low intensity areas along the HSR between Paris and the South of France and along the major HSR lines in Spain e.g Madrid to Barcelona.

If there is to be HSR between the two MegaRegions it needs to be up the Central Valley. The choice of starting a segment is due more to what is ‘shovel ready’ than where the trip demand is or will be.

Fifth:

Ken Orski (quoted in the original post) and those he spends his time with were and are scared witless that HSR will syphon off money from their beloved roadway pork barrels.

And So:

HSR anywhere or a California HSR may or may not be a prudent use of federal stimulus dollars.

But it is not a “bridge to nowhere.”

This is pure whack a mole aka, tossing rocks at empty pigeon holes.

EMR

Jim responded the that he agreed on the substance. So EMR jumped on his Citizen Media soap box.

Jim:

As usual we agree on the substance.

But it is the substance that needs to be the focus of discussion.

Whack-A-Mole and Tossing Rocks only builds the wall between substance / fact / science and fosters The Anger of Ignorance.

AntiPartisanship is the right path but citizens of the US are still over fat and over satisfied by years of Mass OverConsumption and they are not yet ready to stop the Whack-A-Mole and Tossing Rocks At Empty Pigeon Holes (TRAEPH – someone could do something with those letters… perhaps TRAP?)

By the time they are ready will there be any resources left to build on? Will the genetic proclivities that got humans to this point prevent them from reaching a sustainable trajectory?

EMR sees no answer beyond the scale of the Alpha Community (ALPHA VIL 21 and THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY) but sustainability STRARTS at the New Urban Region scale and for those in MegaRegions, perhaps is not possible at smaller scales.

Keep up the good work, abandon the Whacker and the Rocks.

EMR

GREEN INFRASTRUCTURE

While on the topic of ‘infrastructure,’ GREEN Infrastructure has a nice sound but, as SYNERGY has noted in the past, green infrastructure is not an end-all and be-all.

The “inaugural” National Green Infrastructure Conference 2011 sponsored by The Conservation Fund will be held in 23 to 25 February in Shepherdstown, West Virginia. (Those environmental NGO’s and their Enterprise Partners again?) If you read the hype (conference “agenda”), one would think green infrastructure IS a end-all and be-all.

Creating functional and sustainable green infrastructure is a fine idea. In fact it is a vital goal on the path to a sustainable trajectory for human civilization as it has evolved to it’s status in January 2011.

Viable green infrastructure is supported by almost everyone except those who see functional settlement patterns as a conspiracy to rob citizens of their personal right to live off of subsidies that support spacial dysfunction – specifically the “Agenda 21″ crowd.

Green infrastructure – by whatever name – is necessary to support humans and the environment upon which humans depend for air, water, food and shelter. However, before green infrastructure is anointed as the end-all and be-all driver of land use decisions, let us be clear:

Green infrastructure is not alone. There is ALSO a need for black infrastructure (sidewalks, paths, streets, roadways, rails, bridges and tunnels), blue infrastructure (water supply and precipitation management), gray infrastructure (waste water, solid waste and air pollutant management), red infrastructure (energy generation, transmission and distribution), purple infrastructure (cultural, historical, psychological, aesthetic and amenity) and invisible infrastructure (the electromagnetic spectrum).

All are critical to support modern Urban humans and to protect the natural system upon which all life depends. Given the current role of Homo sapiens on the planet, black, blue, gray, red, purple, green
and invisible infrastructures must be designed to support FUNCTIONAL human settlement patterns.

Currently settlement patterns are DYSFUNCTIONAL from economic, social and physical perspectives. Freezing in place major components of green infrastructure in that context is counterproductive, if not suicidal.

That is the case because there is already far more land devoted to Urban land uses than can be efficiently used in the foreseeable future.

Those scattered Urban uses of land cannot be supported by any infrastructure – black, blue, gray, red, purple, green or invisible. The only cohort that focusing on one infrastructure component at a time – and without regard to the structure to be served – benefits are those who hold land speculatively in the hopes of future demand for MORE scattered Urban land uses.

Before deciding what and where green infrastructure should go, consideration must be given to functional settlement patterns for 95 percent of the population who can efficiently occupy for their daily activities ONLY about 5 percent of the land area of the lower 48 in the US. That leaves 95 percent of the land area for green, blue and purple activities.

Intelligent design of functional human settlement patterns rarely conflicts with functional green, blue or purple infrastructure. However, green infrastructure in the wrong place can render human settlement patterns dysfunctional. See USE AND MANAGEMENT OF LAND – PART FOUR of TRILO-G.

INVISIBLE INFRASTRUCTURE

It is foolhardy to design ANY infrastructure in a vacuum just as it is foolhardy to over design black infrastructure to serve Autonomobiles.

As those who understand the Access and Mobility Myth know, it is not possible for citizens in Regional agglomerations to live where they want, work where they want, seek services where they want and then have Agencies, Enterprises or Institutions design black infrastructure to get them where they want to go when the want to go there and arrive in a timely manner.

It is becoming clear that the same is true for the invisible infrastructure. See the front page story of the 30 Nov WaPo Health and Science section which asks:

“Are we headed for a smartphone meltdown? As demand for the data-hungry [actually band-width hungry] devices skyrockets, mobile networks risk collapse : Cellphone traffic needs wider road.”

This story is written from the perspective of the telecoms who what more bandwidth for their most lucrative services. The story sounds like it could have been penned by Autonomobile advocates – The Roadway Choir. It is just not possible for “everyone” to have band width hungry devices that work at the same time especially with millions of pages of “content farms” being planted every day.

Ironically, on the front page of the A section of the very same edition of WaPo is answer:

“With faster cellphones come souped-up bills: New cellphone options, in a language foreign to many.”

Invisible infrastructure charge should reflect actual use and then scarce resources will be fairly allocated. It is called “the market.” (Yes, there must be a decision arrived at by democratic processes for what ‘everyone’ should have access to and then beyond that, the more you use, the more you pay. E.g. everyone gets PDFs to support useful activity free, everyone pays for the download of movies and entertainment and the bigger the download, the more one pays.)

THE REAL MARKET SOLUTION

So, infrastructure boils down to this:

● First, functional and sustainable human settlement patterns

● Second, fair allocation of location variable costs.

Pandering politicians have taken up the chant of The Anger of Ignorance Crowd:

“No gas tax” by which they mean “no CAR tax.” What they really mean is “increase the subsidy for use of my Large, Private Vehicle.”

After all cars and Wrong Size Houses in the Wrong locations have led us out of the last seven recessions. And, while shelter values continue on a downward trajectory – especially outside Radius = 20 Miles in the Virginia portion of the National Capital SubRegion – CARS ARE COMING BACK.

Ford recorded record profits in the last quarter of 2010. Anyone who owns a business knows why. Business owners have been dunned with notices / ads about that huge tax break for “light trucks” used in their business – write off the full value in one year. If you have cash flow and an old pickup / van / SUV or one without a DuraMax engine, an Allison Transmission and dual wheels the end of 2010 was the time to buy.

GM sales are up too – in China. But watch out, China now realizes the stupidity of trying to meet citizen needs for Access and Mobility with Private Vehicles so they are now taxing SMALL cars. They do not want to clog the roads for the Communist Party leaders and the ‘entrepreneurs’ who drive Large, Private Vehicles.

Consumers are not stupid. Unsafe Nanos are sitting on sales lots in India. Recall from above, even in the US:

At the present time half of the working adults in the US cannot afford to buy and maintain a Large, Private Vehicle that is fuel efficient AND safe to drive on the Interstate Highway System.

If you think the Autonomobile industry understands the shape of the future, check out the headliners at the Washington D.C. Autoshow. And be ready for WHAT FOLLOWS THE AUTONOMOBILE (Forthcoming.)

All this renewed AUTO MANIA and INFRASTRUCTURE MANIA will come to a crashing conclusion unless citizens start to pay the full cost of their current civilization. That means there is a need for ‘some tax.’ Do not rely on Public Private Partnerships tolls to generate cash for infrastructure UNTIL there agreement of the settlement pattern that needs to be provided with Mobility and Access. THEN it will be clear that there is NO low-hanging plum projects upon which to slap tolls.

THE ROAD AHEAD

The Mobility and Access Crisis will not be solved without Fundamental Transformation of the human settlement pattern – and that includes black, blue, gray, purple, green and invisible infrastructure to support functional and sustainable human Regions and Communities, AND.

Neither the Mobility and Access Crisis nor the Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis can be solved – nor will health care, education, public safety and national security stop being bottomless pits – until there is Fundamental Transformation of governance structure, AND.

Mass OverConsumption and the exhaustion of finite resources will not stop – a sustainable trajectory for human civilization will not be achieved – without a change in the economic system, AND

None of these Fundamental Transformations can be achieved without CITIZEN MEDIA.

In this context, recall THE BOTTOM LINE from Chapter One of the most recent version of CITIZEN MEDIA. (In light of the events in Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Yemen note especially the roll of global, instantaneous communications.)

Citizens cannot make well informed decisions on their own best interest on ANY topic until they have a reliable source of reliable information.

That is true for Fundamental Transformation of human settlement patters,

That is true for Fundamental Transformation of governance structure (the topic Observer was addressing)

That is true for Fundamental Transformation of the economic system.

Without a reliable source of sound information democracy and market economies are not possible. This reality must be seen in the global context:

On a small planet with Global economic, social and physical interconnections, GROSS INEQUITY at the Community-, SubRegional-, Regional-, MegaRegional- and continental-scales OR between ethnic and religious groups
is NOT sustainable.

All citizens must have the opportunity to prosper based on effort, ability and acceptance of responsibility for their actions – individual and collective. Success cannot be based on gambling, happenstance and inheritance or on inequitable distribution of resources and opportunity at ANY scale.

Avoiding Collapse of civilization as-it-has-evolved and the survival for Homo sapiens comes down to understanding that:

In a ‘flat’ world with:

● wide-spread literacy,

● Global, instant communications / information dissemination, and

● Wide distribution of weapons of mass destruction / massive stockpiles of weapons of conventional destruction / ubiquitous access to weapons of inter-personal destruction:

There is no alternative but to make Fundamental Transformations of governance structure. The conflict started in Tunisia and now spreading to Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Yemen and beyond makes this crystal clear. These conflicts are based on economic dysfunction in societies with literacy, and instantaneous global communications.

Transformations in governance structure can facilitate evolution of Fundamental Transformation of humans settlement patterns, governance structures and of economic systems. These three Transformations are imperative if citizens are to achieve a sustainable trajectory for their civilization.

The question remains:

Will the genetic proclivities toward competition, acquisition, consumption and xenophobia that got Homo sapiens to this point in their evolution prevent the emergence of an Urban society with a sustainable trajectory?

Will human beliefs and superstitions that have become hardwired into society thwart evolution of a sustainable advanced-technology based civilization, or perhaps a stable New Bronze Age or will they result in the end of human society as has evolved over the past 13,000 years?

Will those at the top of the economic food chain realize they must close the Wealth Gap to survive?

The answers will depend on whether citizens can evolve Citizen Media to provide the information they need to make intelligent decisions in the voting booth and in the marketplace.

AARRRGH!

Ok, now back to CITIZEN MEDIA

EMR

First Virginia fell to second place in the Forbes “Best States for Business” ranking. I was so depressed that I couldn’t blog about it. Now, we’ve fallen from 6th to 8th place in the Milken Institute’s 2010 State Technology and Science Index. I guess I can’t ignore our declining status any longer.

Here is the Virginia summary:

Now that Prince Eric has been elevated to his new position of House Majority Leader, Cantor’s made good on his pledge to lead a repeal vote against Obamacare in the House, now controlled by Republicans.

Not only is the cost of a college education may be escalating without let-up, it’s pretty clear that students are not getting any more for their money. A new book, co-written by University of Virginia sociology professor Josipa Roksa, paints an alarming picture of what’s going on in higher education today.

In research for the book, “Academically Adrift: Limited Learning on College Campuses,” Roksa and New York University sociologist Richard Arun tracked more than 2,000 students between fall 2005 and spring 2009 at 24 different colleges and universities. The colleges ranged from highly selective to less selective. Sums up a McClatchy newspaper acccount:

I hope someone in the McDonnell administration reads the Wall Street Journal. I’m getting queasier and queasier about the idea of Virginia taking on more debt. I reproduce this blog post from the Boomergeddon blog.

Financial markets have tightened their grip on sovereign debt — especially U.S. municipal debt — in the past two months. The yield on 30-year, AAA-rated general obligation bonds has soared from about 3.75% to 5.0% since late 2010 — the highest interest rates since the darkest days of the Global Financial Crisis.

The squeeze has been caused largely by the anticipated expiration of some $109 billion worth of letters of credit and similar guarantees that municipalities used as short-term financing to get them through the depths of the financial crisis. “Municipalities may be hard-pressed to come up with this money or refinance this debt,” the Wall Street Journal quoted Eric Friedland, a municipal analyst at Fitch Ratings, as saying.

Bond analysts say that the crunch could lead to some municipalities defaulting on their debt, with spillover effects to banks that backed the bonds with letters of credit. “This is one area of risk the market hasn’t focused on,” said Frederick Cannon, a banking analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods.

The Journal highlighted a bond auction that proved disappointing to the New Jersey Economic Development Authority. The government agency fought to refinance a short-term, variable interest loan but had to reduce its planned $1.8 billion offering to $1.1 billion because investors were demanding higher rates. In another sign that investors are shying away from the municipal market, mutual fund giant Vanguard dropped plans to roll out three new municipal bond funds, citing market turmoil.

As investors take a closer look at state/local finances, the more disconcerted they get. I’ve prominently highlighted Meredith Whitney’s analysis in this blog (see “The Next Big Meltdown: Failed States“), in which she predicted a wave of municipal bankruptcies.

Now, it appears, New Jersey’s unfunded pension liabilities are coming under closer scrutiny. Officially, the state’s pension liabilities amount to $54 billion, writes James Freeman in an op-ed into today’s Journal. But the state optimistically assumes an 8.5% return annual return on investment. Independent estimates suggest the shortfall could be as high as $175 billion — and that doesn’t include liabilities for retiree health benefits, which could total another $67 billion. If investors start turning over the rocks of Illinois and California obligations, who knows what kind of bugs will come crawling out? Both states have been relying upon accounting gimmicks for so long, there could be all manner of unpleasant surprises.

If yields on AAA-rated debt have climbed to 5.0%, states with lousy credit ratings will find the cost of capital to be even more expensive. And it’s the states with poor credit ratings that tend to be the most dependent upon the long-term debt to begin with. Fortunately, states are restricted in their ability to fund ongoing operations through debt, so the higher interest rates will not punish state or municipal governments as much as they would hammer federal finances.

But the market is speaking, and investors clearly don’t like what they see. If enough municipal bankruptcies occur, negative sentiment could easily spread to to government obligations of all kind, including federal Treasury securities. Then the state/local problem becomes a federal problem.

With its AAA credit rating, Virginia has less to lose from higher interest rates on munis than other states. But Gov. McDonnell’s plan to borrow another $3 billion for transportation funding would push the state to the outer bounds of prudence. And all for what? We haven’t even seen a list of the transportation projects yet! In all probability, the money would go to projects approved by the Commonwealth Transportation Board, reflecting the priorities of the 2000s decade. But things are very different now, as I’ll explain in a future post about the prospects for continued oil price hikes. We need a new set of priorities. Let’s not invest $3 billion in projects of dubious value.

Gov. Bob McDonnell has just issued Executive Order #31 creating the Independent Bipartisan Advisory Commission on Redistricting. The commission is tasked with ensuring bipartisan citizen involvement in the redistricting process for General Assembly and congressional seats. Stated the governor:

Here’s a less-than-pleasant quiz.

Overview: I have decided to add an unplanned segment to the Politics and the Chesapeake Bay series. I felt there were sufficient questions following the first article in the series (Pt 1) to warrant an intermediary article to answer those questions. The two big areas of interest involved the uniqueness of the Chesapeake Bay (especially as an estuary) and the forces continuing to change the bay (especially rising sea levels).

What is an estuary? It is a partly enclosed body of water with one or more rivers or streams flowing into it. Some definitions add a requirement for brackish water. The bottom line is that there is no completely accepted definition of an estuary. However, like pornography, you know it when you see it. The Chesapeake Bay is unquestionably an estuary. So are both the San Francisco Bay and the St Lawrence River. Other bodies of water, like the Gulf of Mexico, might meet the technical definition of an estuary but wouldn’t qualify in my book.

Is the Chesapeake Bay unique? In many ways, yes. The Chesapeake Bay is not the largest estuary in the world. That distinction belongs to the Rio de la Plata located between Argentina and Uruguay. However, the Chesapeake is the largest estuary in the United States and is generally considered the third largest estuary in the world. Yet even these “facts” can be disputed. By surface area, the largest estuary is Rio de la Plata. By length it is the St Lawrence River. By miles of shoreline it is the Chesapeake Bay. By any measure, the Chesapeake joins a very few other aquatic marvels (such as Florida’s Everglades) as one of America’s most important natural wonders.

The Changing Chesapeake. Anybody who boats on the middle section of the Chesapeake Bay knows Sharp’s Island Lighthouse (pictured in this post). The lighthouse sits at the intersection of the Choptank River and the main bay. It is instantly recognizable by its 20 degree tilt (caused by ice floes during particularly cold winters). The current Sharp’s Island Lighthouse was not the first. The first lighthouse was built in 1837 on top of a 900 acre island which was home to a thriving agricultural community. Named Sharp’s Island after the Quaker physician who once owned it, the island was a beautiful place in the mid 1800s. So beautiful that a wealthy Baltimore shoe manufacturer built a resort hotel on the island. There was only one problem – the island was rapidly sinking into the Chesapeake Bay. The isle (which measured 900 acres in the 17th century) was down to 94 acres by 1900. The island is under 9 to 12 feet of water today.

The rising tide. The water level in the Chesapeake Bay’ along with the rest of the Mid-Atlantic coast’ is rising at twice the rate of sea levels worldwide. This amounts to 1.3 feet per century at the mouth and 1.0 foot per century in mid-bay. That’s a lot of extra water but far from enough to put a hotel that was dry in 1900 under ten feet of water today. The Chesapeake Bay has been identified as one of four anomalous areas along the U.S. East Coast that appear tectonically active. There is a down-warping of the Earth’s crust called the Salisbury embayment. This embayment could certainly be the root cause of the mini-Atlantis known as Sharp’s Island. However, the entire US Mid-Atlantic coast is experiencing sea level increases well beyond global averages. And the Salisbury embayment cannot be blamed for all of that!