• LANDSCAPE URBANISM, NEW URBANISM OR THE THIRD WAY

    THE SEARCH FOR A COMPREHENSIVE SETTLEMENT PATTERN CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK THAT PROVIDES A BASIS FOR RATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE DECISIONS

    The vast majority agree that there is a desperate need to build and rebuild infrastructure to support functional and sustainable human settlement patterns in the United States.

    The unsustainable trajectory of Business-As-Usual has put citizens, their Organizations and their civilization on the roadway to dysfunction and collapse.

    The current settlement pattern is not working. Therefore, building more โ€˜INFRASTRUCTUREโ€™ to support the dysfunctional settlement โ€˜STRUCTUREโ€™ would be suicidal.

    In spite of the widely acknowledged need for infrastructure investment, there are not even funds available to keep the existing infrastructure repaired. There are many reasons why there is not a critical mass of citizen support for infrastructure investment. However, a prime reason is that citizens have seen trillions of dollars poured down the โ€˜more of the sameโ€™ rat hole for three decades with no relief in sight.

    As documented in THE SHAPE OF THE FUTURE transport is the canary in the minefield of settlement pattern dysfunction. โ€˜Traffic congestionโ€™ is the bellwether and traffic congestion gets worse every year regardless of how much money federal and state DOTs pour into asphalt to support Autonomobiles. There are science-based physical and economic reasons for this reality. See THE PROBLEM WITH CARS โ€“ PART THREE of TRILO-G and the resources cited in the prior sections of this Perspective.

    In this context, where do citizens and their leaders look for guidance to evolve new strategies and functional settlement patterns that can be supported by intelligent infrastructure investments?

    Over 95 percent of the US Households are Urban Households so it is reasonable to ask: What are the parameters of the Urban template that can achieve a sustainable future for human civilization?

    There are two competing philosophies / paradigms that are being intensely debated at this time:

    โ— New Urbanism (and the related consumption-centric Smart Growth Ideal), and

    โ— Landscape Urbanism (which some link with the econ-centric Green Infrastructure Ideal)

    There IS a third paradigm about which few yet understand.

    The question is should the Urban template be:

    A. Landscape Urbanism?

    B. New Urbanism?

    C. Or, a Third Way based on the New Urban Region Conceptual Framework and economic / social / physical reality?

    This section of the INFRASTRUCTURE Perspective addresses this question.

    [NB: This is the fourth, and next-to-final BaconsRebellion Blog post by EMR on the topic of INFRASTRUCTURE. This Perspective is a rough second draft and informed comments are always welcome. The Vocabulary used in this Perspective โ€“ including the phrases โ€˜Landscape Urbanism,โ€™ โ€˜New Urbanismโ€™ and โ€˜New Urban Region Conceptual Frameworkโ€™ have been carefully defined by their proponents. While THE LITMUS TEST has not yet been published, if the reader is NOT conversant with the Vocabulary used and what these words and phrases mean, they would be well advised to not bother posting random thoughts in an attempt to contradict or discredit the Perspective when, by definition, the commentors do not know what they are talking about. For words that may appear to have irregular Capitalization, see the GLOSSARY that accompanies this Blog and which is accessible from the RESOURCES page at www.emrisse.com As has been often noted on this Blog, โ€˜New Urban Region,โ€™ โ€˜Urban Support Region,โ€™ โ€˜SubRegion,โ€™ โ€˜MegaRegionโ€™ and the components of the New Urban Region Conceptual Framework are not terms currently used by advocates of New Urbanism or Landscape Urbanism.]

    THE SPOILS OF WAR

    The conflict between Landscape Urbanism and New Urbanism is a HOT topic among some with professional interest in human settlement patterns. This conflict has the potential to impact the provision of infrastructure to support function and sustainable settlement patterns.

    The question arises:

    Which of these โ€˜Urbanismsโ€™ makes the most sense upon which to base decisions related to the infrastructure needed to support functional and sustainable human settlement patterns โ€“ especially Urban settlement patterns which must support 95 percent of the US Households?

    It turns out the answer is NEITHER.

    Some may be unfamiliar with, or confused about, the two hot topic Urbanisms โ€“ โ€˜Newโ€™ and โ€˜Landscapeโ€™ โ€“ and how they differ. New Urbanism is the more broadly articulated Urbanism. See Peter Katzโ€™s 1994 book The New Urbanism and other resources cited below. Landscape Urbanism Reader assembled by Charles Waldheim in 2006 is credited with being the founding document of Landscape Urbanism.

    For a summary of the conflict between the two Urbanisms โ€“ described by Planetizen as โ€œ… the war for the future of our built environmentโ€ โ€“ see the recent summary by Leon Neyfakh in The Boston Globe at

    http://www.boston.com/yourtown/cambridge/articles/2011/01/30/green_building/

    [NB: If you are required to sign in at the Globe web site to view the article (the sign in requirement seems to be random) and you do not want to do that, you can find a frustrating 8 mini-page version of the material by Googleing โ€œLeon Neyfakh Green Building.โ€]

    Neyfakh presents an Enterprise Media โ€˜he said, he saidโ€™ overview of the โ€˜warโ€™ between the two Urbanisms.

    EMR would advise not trusting the details too far. For example, Neyfakh says Landscape Urbanism โ€˜startedโ€™ at the University of Pennsylvania in the late 1980s. It is clear that the origins of these ideas at Penn go back to at least the 60s and the work of Ian McHarg. Discussion of the topic prompted EMR to review his 1969 copy of McHargโ€™s well regarded Design With Nature.

    This book contains many of the insights that distinguish Landscape Urbanism as articulated by Waldheim via Neyfakh. McHargโ€™s book also exhibits several of the key shortcomings that afflict Landscape Urbanism and prevent it from being an overarching Conceptual Framework that could guide the evolution of human settlement patterns.

    It appears that one can trust the general outlines of the โ€œwarโ€ as depicted by Neyfakh but be careful of the details.

    FIRST, IS THIS A WAR WORTH FIGHTING?

    If you believe writers like Neyfakh, the WAR between Landscape Urbanism and New Urbanism is VERY serious business. (As noted below, there ARE INDEED significant implications.)

    However, there are threshold questions:

    Is this conflict any more than an Ivy League squabble with Princeton / Yale (Duany and Plater-Zyberk) on one side and Harvard / Penn (McHarg and Waldheim) on the other?

    And:

    Are these two โ€˜Urbanismsโ€™ just separate refutations of the culture of Starchitects who suffer from ego-centric edifice complexes? Are the acolytes of these two Urbanisms simply design students and practitioners that in an earlier day found solace and refuge in Chris Alexanderโ€™s โ€˜timeless way of buildingโ€™?

    It is very clear that both Landscape Urbanists and New Urbanists HATE โ€˜modernโ€™ architecture and egocentric Starchitects. That is UNLESS these Starchitects are card carrying supporters of one of the Urbanism. It is also clear that both Urbanisms have champions who are striving for Starchitect status.

    Back to the question of war worthiness:

    The important reality is that if either of these flavors of Urbanism โ€˜winsโ€™ it will have a controlling impact on the type, location and cost of the infrastructure to support humans Urban activity.

    With the advent of Peak Resources to support the contemporary brand of high-t
    echnology civilization, humans cannot afford to toss another generation of resources down the rat hole of dysfunction settlement patterns.

    So the answer is yes, who wins this war IS important.

    As outlined below, it is in citizenโ€™s and their Organizationโ€™s best interest that neither New Urbanism or Landscape Urbanism โ€˜winโ€™ but that selected core values of each emerge in an overarching Third Way strategy.

    The conflict opens the door, not for a โ€˜compromiseโ€™ but for an overarching, comprehensive Conceptual Framework.

    This brief Perspective is not intended to provide the details on any particular position but rather to suggest that there exists a clearly articulated exit strategy from the current dysfunctional trajectory.

    WHO IS ON FIRST?

    At the present, New Urbanism has a big head start but Landscape Urbanism is said to be catching up.

    On what basis is New Urbanism ahead of Landscape Urbanism?

    Well, for starters: Market, Allies and Agencies.

    Market. New Urbanism has proven market acceptance at the Unit, Dooryard, Cluster and Neighborhood scales even after the 2006 built-environment downturn.

    While the call for โ€˜a new urbanismโ€™ came from Grady Clay in the July 1959 issue of Horizon, there were few examples beyond the Unit, Dooryard and Cluster scales until Seaside, FL, was launched in 1981. This Village scale vacation / leisure Urban enclave on the Gulf of Mexico has become the poster child of New Urbanism.

    There is a poster child project for Landscape Urbanism as well. It is a Planned New Community of about 60,000 citizens. It was started in the early-70s and is nearing โ€˜completionโ€™ but apparently most of the advocates of Landscape Urbanism do not yet understand that fact โ€“ or perhaps they do not want to confront the conclusions that can be drawn from this Community which is the subject of a section later in this Perspective.

    As to New Urbanist projects:

    Who would NOT rather vacation in Seaside, FL and live in Celebration, FL or Kentlands, MD as opposed to vacationing in Panama City, FL and living in Kissimmee, FL or Glen Burnie, MD?

    The Creative Class, that is who.

    The citizens who are drawn to New Urbanist projects are the citizens with the skills and ambition to get jobs even in a โ€˜bad economy.โ€™ Consider at a map of New Urbanist projects. It is a location-sort of attractive places for the Creative Class to seek Jobs / Housing / Services / Recreation / Amenity โ€“ The Research Triangle, Austin, Silicone Valley and in other desirable locations in the Boston, Washington-Baltimore, et. al New Urban Regions. Peter Katzโ€™s book The New Urbanism noted earlier provides a mid-90s tour of projects and New Urban News provides regular updates and summaries in its newsletter and now on line at www.newurbannetwork.com

    Allies. As for allies, the New Urbanists are cohabiting with the Smart Growth and the Smarter Growth cohorts who are the champions of comfortable, โ€˜settledโ€™ places and Transit Oriented Development. As anyone at the Urban Land Institute will tell you, THAT IS WHERE THE ACTION IS, down at the Light Rail Station.

    New Urbanists have also formed alliances with the โ€œConservation NGOs and their Enterprise Partnersโ€ โ€“ the Institutions and Enterprises with owners, leaders and members that argue that โ€˜growthโ€™ will raise all boats.

    It is clear that the ideals of New Urbanism have influenced plans and programs even for places and projects that have NOTHING to do with the โ€˜realโ€™ New Urbanism โ€“ or with functional human settlement pattern. Tysons Corner, VA and the National Capital SubRegion METRO Silver Line is a good example. See columns โ€œAll Aboardโ€ Column # 96 and โ€œA Picture is Worth a Thousand Liesโ€ Column # 131 and the resources cited in these columns. The columns are accessible from the RESOURCES Page at www.emrisse.com

    Agencies. Look no farther than the amount of Agency money funneled to New Urbanist projects by HUD and EPA at the federal level and by states and municipalities as well. Without a backfire to rob fuel from New Urbanismโ€™s momentum, the recent past is prologue to what would happen with infrastructure resources if New Urbanism โ€˜wins.โ€™

    In spite of this, as quoted by Neyfakh, Andrus Duany (the leader of New Urbanism) said after projecting a lecture by Charles Waldheim (the leader of Landscape Urbanism) for a summit of New Urbanists:

    โ€œOK, but is there one kid in that room who isnโ€™t a convert?โ€

    Duany is referring to the underlying appeal of Waldheimโ€™s abstract ecological based argument.

    Landscape Urbanismโ€™s hook is ecology, science, climate change and โ€“ surprisingly โ€“ the endorsement of some important parameters of Business-As-Usual such as continued dominance of Large, Private Vehicles to provide mobility and Access. Landscape Urbanism may be the backfire needed to turn New Urbanism from dysfunction to function โ€“ and visa versa.

    HEAD TO HEAD: APPLES AND KUMQUATS

    In a side by side comparison, there are profound differences between the two Urbanisms but each has a core strength.

    First the strengths:

    For New Urbanism the strength is that at the Unit, Dooryard, Cluster and Neighborhood scale New Urbanists champion and deliver places that citizen love to live, work and play. You can take that to the bank.

    For Landscape Urbanism it is that they claim an ecological (existing landscape) base for their ideas. This attracts those concerned about survival of the ecosystem upon which all life, including human life depends. You can take that to the global bank.

    Now the weaknesses:

    The New Urbanists

    As readers of THE SHAPE OF THE FUTURE, TRILO-G and the resources accessible at www.emrisse.com know, EMR has long supported many of the objectives of New Urbanism and many projects designed and implemented by New Urbanists.

    But there are reservations as documented in the Section titled โ€œThe New Urbanism: Light at the End of a Tunnel, or Just Another Train?โ€ in Chapter 18 (โ€œSources of Inspirationโ€“ Planned New Communities, The New Urbanism and other Prospects for Guidance on the Futureโ€) in THE SHAPE OF THE FUTURE. While some of the shortcomings listed in this 2000 book have been addressed and the market for New Urbanist projects has grown, other concerns remain.

    Among those that remain the two big ones are:

    โ— Lack of a robust and consistent Vocabulary, and

    โ— Absence of the comprehensive, overarching Conceptual Framework for human settlement pattern.

    One aspect of the Vocabulary issue is addressed in the following section and the lack of an overarching Conceptual Framework in the section that follows.

    An issue that helps cloud the two overarching issues is a reverence for โ€“ bordering on an obsession โ€“ the grid. This topic is discussed in the chapter of THE SHAPE OF THE FUTURE noted above.

    The long and short of it is that a grid is not a viable settlement pattern beyond the scale of the Cluster and then only when the Cluster has landscape / natural feature Boundaries.

    The grid is not an armature for organic settlement patterns because it fails to provide a tangible boundaries between components of human settlement. It is no more โ€˜realโ€™ than the โ€˜transectโ€™ which is used as a lame substitute for a comprehensive Conceptual Framework.

    There are locations in every New Urban Region that match the illustration of the โ€˜stations of the transectโ€™ but no New Urban Region that is composed of sequential segments of these stations.

    New Urbanism does not recognize that human settlement pattern are organic systems and does not follow the โ€˜timeless way of buildingโ€™ beyond the Unit, Dooryard and Cluster scales and
    perhaps Neighborhoods in some cases. That cannot be done without a robust Vocabulary to articulate a comprehensive Conceptual Framework

    It is not that the advocates of New Urbanism have not thought about the issue of larger (and smaller) scales and the role of New Urbanism in the forces that shape the human settlement pattern, they have. Perhaps the problem is that too many New Urbanists have thought too much about these issues and have reached no consensus beyond the simplistic Transect and a non-specific Vocabulary. See New Urbanism and American Planning: The Conflict of Cultures, Emily Talen (2005), New Urbanism and Beyond, Tigran Hass, Editor (2008) and The Language of Towns and Cities, Dhiru Thadani (2010)

    The Landscape Urbanists

    While there is an assumptionโ€™ that Landscape Urbanism is based on ecological principles that is not clear from Landscape Urbanism Reader. โ€˜Abstract academic principlesโ€™ might come closer to the mark. Landscape Urbanism could vastly improve its level of acceptance by embracing more of McHargโ€™s emotional attachment to the environment and downplay most of the hyper-intellectual (pseudo-intellectual?) abstractionism.

    In spite of stated reverence for the โ€˜organicโ€™ and โ€˜ecologicalโ€™ systems, Landscape Urbanists do not understand that human settlement patterns ARE an organic system

    Further, they are TOTALLY obliviousness to scale and amount of land needed for functional human settlement patterns.

    In other words, while repulsed by what Urbanization has done to โ€˜The Landscapeโ€™ โ€“ as McHarg was about what happened outside Glasgow after World War II โ€“ Landscape Urbanists have no clue of functional patterns of human settlement OR the amount of land needed for functional human settlement patterns.

    Those who read section on โ€˜Green Infrastructureโ€™ in INFRASTRUCTURE MANIA โ€“ the first chapter of this Perspective โ€“will know where this critique is going.

    As documented by the work of SYNERGY, there is already FAR too much land devote to Urban development and that does not include the vast amount of land speculatively held for FUTURE urban development.

    This is a tragic flaw because Landscape Urbanist assume that the future will see far more land converted from NonUrban to Urban land uses and thus the need to use the natural configuration (โ€˜landscapeโ€™) or not yet Urbanized land as the armature for future Urban land uses.

    This may be a blind spot inherited from McHarg. His work identified far more land suitable for future Urban development than was (or is) needed. This work has encouraged speculation and scatteration. The root cause may be in the gross exaggerations of the extent of metropolitan โ€˜growthโ€™ that resulted from extrapolating the trajectories from the 1950 to 1960 census.

    If Loren Eiseley is right that humans are a planetary disease (McHarg used Eiseleyโ€™s analogy over and over in his lectures) then it would seem wise to fit humans into the LEAST CONSUMPTIVE, functional configurations possible. Do not spread out the disease.

    As suggested below, that turns out good idea. More compact Urban fabric DOES NOT mean โ€˜Manhattan Urbanโ€™ for most Urban citizens, but rather โ€˜Georgetown Urbanโ€™ and โ€˜Louisburg Square Urbanโ€™ โ€“ Urbane. What do you know!! That is just what New Urbanist do well.

    To compound the problem, Landscape Urbanists try to curry favor of Enterprises (and supposedly citizens) by genuflexing to โ€˜what citizens wantโ€™ in order to sell their abstractions. โ€œConsumers want cars? We will give them cars.โ€ However, in the process they cause them to drive even farther as documented in the section below devoted to The Woodlands.

    WHY VOCABULARY (AND A COMPREHENSIVE CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK) IS SO IMPORTANT.

    Vocabulary is the focus of PRIMER (forthcoming). This Perspective examines the failure to communicate useful information about human settlement patterns and focuses on strategies to avoid Core Confusing Words. This section addresses the topic of Vocabulary only to the extent necessary to explore the key shortcomings of New Urbanism (and Landscape Urbanism) highlighted in the last section.

    First, the problem is NOT that Vocabulary has not been considered by New Urbanists. Dhiru Thadaniโ€™s 2010 book The Language of Towns and Cities runs to 781 pages with 2,500 color images. The problem is New Urbanists have no comprehensive Conceptual Framework to apply a Vocabulary. As will be made clear in PRIMER, the first step is to just avoid Core Confusing Words.

    Vincent Scully (โ€œone of the United Statesโ€™ most brilliant architectural historiansโ€), a long time professor at Yale and mentor to many New Urbanists is the author of American Architecture and Urbanism published in 1969. That is the same year McHargโ€™s Design With Nature was published. In the Afterword of Peter Katzโ€™s 1994 book The New Urbanism, Scully suggests that perhaps New Urbanism should be called โ€œthe New SubUrbanismโ€ citing the work of John Nolan in the 1920s. Nolanโ€™s projects in Florida are in many respects, identical at the Unit, Dooryard and Cluster scales to contemporary New Urbanist.

    When Scully was writing his book on Urbanism, the word โ€˜Urbanโ€™ implied โ€˜highriseโ€™ buildings and โ€˜modernโ€™ architectural design. There is a place for nodes of high density Neighborhoods and Villages but it turns out the majority of citizens do not find higher intensity settlement patterns such as mid-Town Manhattan as attractive a place to work โ€“ and especially to live, work and seek Services โ€“ as โ€˜The Village โ€“ be that Greenwich or Greater Warrenton. There may always be a place for highrise components in the Zentra of the Cores of New Urban Regions but it is not for everyone, in fact these patterns and densities are not attractive to the great majority.

    Contemporary Urban citizens make use of a wide range of patterns and densities, but highrise / Manhattan is not often the optimum economic, social and physical choice for the vast majority.

    The Cost of Service Curve (The Second Natural Law of Human Settlement) articulated in THE SHAPE OF THE FUTURE documents that, it is a VERY GOOD THING that only a small percent of the population of any New Urban Region find the most desirable place to live, work and play to be in a very high intensity setting.

    Scully puts his finger on why โ€˜suburbanโ€™ is a Core Confusing Word, why Vocabulary is so important and why Quantification is essential to establish Balance and Critical Mass at all scales of the organic components of human settlement pattern.

    There is a vast difference between an Urban environments at the Dooryard, Cluster, Neighborhood and Village scales which make up Alpha Communities at 25 persons per acre โ€“ and ones that comprise Communities at 250 persons per acre. In the context of this Perspective, there is a VAST difference in the infrastructure needed to achieve Balance and Critical Mass at those two scales.

    While there are Neighborhoods and Villages at 250 persons per acre in the Zentrum of large New Urban Regions, most of the Core of those New Urban Regions โ€“ where 70 to 85 percent of the citizens of the New Urban Region live, work and play โ€“ are FAR lower. Outside R=3 to R=6 from the Centroid, most Beta Communities are only about 5 persons per acre. These topics are explored in both THE SHAPE OF THE FUTURE and in TRILO-G, and the Vocabulary used in this paragraph is explained in detail in the PowerPoint โ€œNew Urban Region Conceptual Frameworkโ€ found in Chapter 49 of TRILO-G.

    As noted in THE SHAPE OF THE FUTURE Planned New Comminutes built during the 60s, 70s and 80s have densities of 10 person per acre at the Alpha Community Scale. It turns out that 10 persons per acre at the Alpha Community scale WAS the lower bound of sweet spot on the Cost of Services Curve for Autonomobile served settlement
    patterns based on the land actually developed between 1970 and 2000.

    Ten persons per acre at the Alpha Community scale was a convenient benchmark for the MINIMUM density for functional settlement patterns WHEN ENERGY WAS CHEAP.

    With decline in the dominance of the Autonomobile, and growing reliance on pedestrian movement, small vehicles and shared vehicles to achieve Mobility and Access, the Sweet Spot will move up to from 15 to 25 persons per acre at the Alpha Community scale. But it will not migrate to 250 persons per acres. See review of David Ovenโ€™s Green Metropolis in Chapter 50 of TRILO-G.

    Most or the economies of scale and support for pedestrian movement, the use of small vehicles and the use shared vehicles to achieve Mobility and Access can be achieved at 15 to 25 persons per acre at the Alpha Community scale. In other words โ€˜MANHATTANโ€™ is a the reddest of red herrings.

    LOST IN SCALE

    Not every New Urbanist is lost in scale, but as a class New Urbanists โ€“ and their Smart / Smarter Growth compatriots ARE lost in scale.

    The vast majority are obsessed with Neighborhoods. Neighborhoods are FINE. They are WONDERFUL. (โ€˜Neighborhoodsโ€™ are the scale that New Urbanists get the many commissions to design and land use control permission to build. See THE ROOT OF THE PROBLEM, below.)

    But Neighborhoods are NOT the only scale / level of ORGANIC COMPONENTS of human settlement pattern.

    The Cluster scale components are important and in fact many of the New Urbanist projects that actually get built are CLUSTER SCALE. The Dooryard scale is also critical. In other words,
    Neighborhoods are NOT just collections of Units in a gridded street configuration. In fact over application of grids means that the Cluster and Dooryard components are hard to identify โ€“ where does one end and other start?

    As important as the Dooryard, the Cluster and the Neighborhood are, it is the larger scale components that are the most important. For example the Village is the native scale of a station area for a single line, โ€˜heavy railโ€™ shared vehicle system. (A station area serving a multi-line station of several closely associated stations would be of Community scale.)

    Beyond the Village scale, the Community scale components are obviously critical: The terms Community College, Community Hospital, Community Theater and many others are Community ******* for a reason.

    But then, the New Urban Region is important too. The New Urban Region is the basic building block of contemporary Urban civilization as documented in THE SHAPE OF THE FUTURE.

    In addition there are important roles for SubRegions and MegaRegions in functional and sustainable human settlement patterns.

    While the Neighborhood is important, what is more important is to understand the organic structure and the scalar components of functional human settlement patterns.

    This reality of organic components of human settlement patterns is lost on many New Urbanists. While some New Urbanists leaders such as Peter Calthorpe have been involved with notable โ€˜regionalโ€™ plans โ€“ that is not their forte and they focus on the scales of settlement pattern components with which they are comfortable. For example, Calthorpe has written books with titles such as The Next American Metropolis (1993) and The Region City (2001) but the process relied on in these books exhibits prominent use of municipal and state borders rather that natural features.

    The โ€˜regionalโ€™ conceptualizations of New Urbanists provide little evidence of specific overarching, regional-wide strategies. There is no defined role for the Countryside, no component composition within the Urbanside and almost never a Clear Edge between Urbanside and Countryside. (See PowerPoint โ€œNew Urban Region Conceptual Frameworkโ€ in Chapter 49 of TRILO-G.)

    More on the topic of regional reality, Regional Metrics and New Urban Regions below but first, what about Landscape Urbanists?

    LANDSCAPE URBANISTS

    Landscape Urbanists are not REALLY โ€œurbanistsโ€ much less Urbanists.

    One gets the impression that the founders of Landscape Urbanism heard half the worldโ€™s population was now Urban and that large Urban areas in some parts of the planet were becoming more populous at an alarming rate and figured that they needed to have โ€˜urbanโ€™ in their name to be relevant.

    The credo of Landscape Urbanism as spelled out in a dramatic double truck dark image in big white letters in Landscape Urbanism Reader is:

    Landscape urbanism describes a disciplinary realignment currently underway in which landscape replaces architecture as the basic building block of contemporary urbanism. For many, across a range of disciplines, landscape has become both the lens through which the contemporary city is represented and the medium through which it is constructed.

    The first sentence completely ignores pattern and density of sustainable Urban fabric.

    In the second sentence by use of the word โ€˜cityโ€™ (without Capitalization) telegraphs that fact that, like New Urbanist, Landscape Urbanist are lost in scale AND they are lost in time. As documented in THE SHAPE FO THE FUTURE, a valid use of the word โ€˜cityโ€™ (Uncapitalized) to describe Urban fabric became meaningless in the US not long after the end of the Civil War and specifically during The Long Depression from 1870s to the 1890s.

    Most importantly, the credo reflects a failure to understand that in the First World (now known as โ€˜more developed nation-statesโ€™) and especially in the US more urban citizens does NOT mean that more urban land is needed or that the area of Urban activity needs to or should expand.

    In fact, and this is critical from an infrastructure perspective, the amount of land devoted to Urban land use must shrink to achieve a sustainable, functional settlement pattern for the 95 percent of the Households that are Urban.

    See above re the density of at Alpha Community scale and the following section on Regional issues. As an aside, Landscape Urbanism would not be much help in the Third World (now known as โ€˜less developed nation-statesโ€™) where the issue of Urban area expansion is critical because of the failure to understand the function and components of Urban fabric.

    If Landscape Urbanism Reader is the bible of Landscape Urbanism as Neyfakh suggests, they have a long ways to go before they can compete with New Urbanism.

    Those who have been tenure track professors in an earnest and technologically competent university program of architecture, urban design, landscape architecture and planning โ€“ and especially those who have served on administrative committees โ€“ can understand how Landscape Urbanism could be a hot topic in dean selection, chairperson selection and tenure decisions, but as a popular movement? Never happen in its current state.

    One can see citizens waving a book on New Urbanism at a public hearing or being passionate about the results of the latest charrette. But waving Landscape Urbanism Reader with its black and white horror show images? The only color in the entire book is the astroturf that adorns the cover.

    If boarding passenger grabbed this book in an airport bookshop so they would have something to read on the flight and thumbed through the photographs they would be sure they had stumbled onto a mother lode of Landscape pornography. Landscape Urbanism might be written off as just a joke except that many seem to be concerned about its impact. Here is a plausible scenario:

    Landscape urbanism has been created by intelligent, sensitive scholars who ended up in landscape architecture because they were attracted to the idea of creating landscapes as places for warm fuzzy animals to live in peace and harmony.

    Upon getting into the classroom these sensitive students were intimidate
    d by Starchitects and frightened out of their wits by ugly aerial photographs of what industrialization / urbanization (small โ€˜uโ€™) has done to the landscape. Hoping to avoid being tossed out into the cruel world they stayed in school, got a PhD and now have to find SOMETHING to do with their time. Every academic department on every campus has professors who are variations on this scenario.

    There is an especially frightening picture of Single Household Detached (REALLY DETACHED FROM REALITY) Urban Dwellings along the south side of Phoenix South Mountain Park in Landscape Urbanism Reader. The editor was so impressed with the graphic that it is reproduced in two locations in the book. However, it is not clear from the text if Landscape Urbanists consider this is a good example or a bad example. (It could be a strategy to avoid steep slopes for ecological rather than economic reasons or the protect the habitat of kangaroo crickets for example, who knows?)

    Clearly it is a dysfunctional settlement pattern for Urban Households. If the full location-variable costs were fairly allocated these Units would have never been built.

    Just to make sure it was not a visual joke, Google Earth was consulted. This settlement pattern does exists on the ground just as it is pictured. It is North of Pecos Road and West of I-10 in the southern part of the Valley of the Sun (Phoenix) New Urban Region. The camera angle was selected to make the picture look as unworldly as possible.

    There is a significant problem understanding and interpreting what can be seen from an airplane window. Images in books such The American Aesthetic (1969) by Starchitect Nat Owings helped launch the ecological movement. But it is hard to translate from gross images to intelligent action without an overarching Conceptual Framework for human settlement patters and an appreciation of scale.

    Based on the bible of Landscape Urbanism, the โ€˜movementโ€™ could be could be an intellectual joke but for the fact that citizens nation-state-wide NEED Landscape Urbanism to become mainstream so that the it is a real competitor for New Urbanism if there is to be a Transformation to a d functional human settlement pattern for Urban Households.

    That could happen if there is:

    โ— A broader understanding of the natural system heritage inherent in the work of Ian McHarg,

    โ— An intelligent Quantification of the land area actually needed to support the existing and potential Urban population,

    โ— A better grasp of functional and sustainable patterns and densities to achieve Balance at the Alpha Community scale and below,

    โ— An understanding of the existence, role and function of New Urban Regions โ€“ or some other science-based, comprehensive Conceptual Framework for human settlement, and

    โ— A Balance between the settlement pattern and the infrastructure to support that settlement pattern that reflects the limited role that Large, Private Vehicles can play in proving Mobility and Access.

    THE REGION

    As pointed out in THE SHAPE OF THE FUTURE, the โ€˜regionโ€™ and specifically the New Urban Region is the basic building block of contemporary civilization

    Three regional plans impacted the evolution of the New Urban Region Conceptual Framework and the evolution of Regional Metrics.

    One. A 1968 plan for a SubRegion in the Mohawk Valley that created functional settlement patterns by taking the existing Urban enclaves that supported agricultural and industrial activities and adding to those enclaves the elements of Jobs / Housing / Services / Recreation / Amenity that would result in Balance and Critical Mass at the Village, Community, SubRegional and Regional scales.

    Two. The land use control system that now covers the 5,000,000 acre Adirondack Park in New York State. This system allocates the scope / scale of land use controls to the appropriate SubRegion, Community and Village scale component of Urban settlement within Clear Edges and protects the Countryside.

    (Note: These first two plans provide the Urban fabric specifics and implementation details for the 1926 plan for the State of New York by Henry Wright and others.)

    Three. The โ€˜Wedges and Corridorsโ€™ Plan(s) for the National Capital SubRegion developed between 1958 and 1965. The genius of the Wedges and Corridors plans is not the Wedges and Corridors but that the Corridors (Linear SubRegions) are composed of Communities. AND more important, the Communities are composed of Villages, AND still more important, the Villages are composed of Neighborhoods.

    (Note: It was not until Burke Centre (planned and built between 1972 to 1982) that the importance of the fact that the Neighborhoods are composed of Clusters became clear. It was a decade later at Fairfax Center (North Lake Cluster of Fair Lakes Neighborhood) that the importance of the fact that Clusters are composed of Dooryards became clear.)

    Some of the highlights of the New Urban Region Conceptual Framework are:

    โ— Functional and sustainable Urban fabric is composed of multiple scaled components as is every organic system

    โ— Function and sustainable Urban fabric requires appropriate Balance and Critical Mass at all scales for the Unit and Dooryard to the New Urban Region and MegaRegion.

    โ— Neighborhoods are not just โ€˜arrangementsโ€™ of Units.

    (For a graphic exploration of The New Urban Region Conceptual Framework, see the PowerPoint of that title in Chapter 49 of TRILO-G.)

    The abstract concept of โ€œregionโ€, โ€˜regionalismโ€™ and Regional Metrics is hard for citizens to get excited about until they realize that their economic, social and physical well being depends on functional and sustainable New Urban Regions. There will not be support for Fundamental Transformation of human settlement patterns until there is Fundamental Transformation of governance structure.

    A ROOT CAUSE OF THE WAR BETWEEN LANDSCAPE URBANISM AND NEW URBANISM โ€“ WHO PAYS THE BILLS.

    As point out in THE SHAPE OF THE FUTURE when it comes to dysfunctional human settlement patterns, there are no villains. One reason that New Urbanism and Landscape Urbanism have not found common ground is who pays the bills.

    McHarg sagely points out in Design With Nature, โ€“ at the start of two separate chapters for emphasis:

    Professional practitioners in architecture, landscape architecture and planning must focus on the contexts that clients bring to them.

    As Andrus Duany told EMR in a private conversation when questioned about specifics of a canned helping of New Urbanist Rhetoric that Duany had just presented to a gathering of municipal officials, citizens and project promoters in a jurisdiction where Duany had never (and still has not) designed a project:

    โ€œAll that is to first get the commission and then to get the zoning. THEN you do the best you can with the opportunity presented.โ€

    This has caused New Urbanist to scatter cute New Urban Dooryards, Clusters and Neighborhoods in inappropriate places. This is the most widely noted โ€˜problemโ€™ with New Urbanism.

    On the other hand as McHarg also points out those in academia have no opportunity to test their ideas in the marketplace. McHarg suggests that because he had a foot in each camp and so was able to consider a wide range of real world challenges that clients were willing to pay for AND when there was no client turn them into student projects.

    The shortcomings in McHargโ€™s work โ€“ e.g. failure to understand the amount of land needed for functional human settlements at a Regional scale for example โ€“ show up in the student work and are apparent in the work of Landscape Urbanists.

    THERE IS A LANDSCAPE URBANISM PROVING GROUNDS

    Neyfakn makes the point in his review of the war โ€“ and he apparently is reflecting the view of
    Waldheim here โ€“ is that there is no large scale application to test Landscape Urbanism as there with New Urbanism โ€“ Seaside, Celebration, Kentlands and a thousand other, mostly smaller projects at the Dooryard- Cluster- and Neighborhood- scales. This is not correct.

    There IS an application of how Landscape Urbanism would work at the Alpha Community scale (and by extension at SubRegional and New Urban Region scales) with McHargโ€™s fingerprints all over it.

    The Woodlands TX was conceived in the mid-60s by the humanist, visionary and Texas oil man โ€“ not an often encountered combination โ€“ George Mitchell. Mitchell personally hired both Ian McHarg (Partner at Wallace, McHarg, Roberts and Todd) and Richard P. Browne (Partner at Richard P. Browne Associates โ€“ Engineers, Architects, Planners and Landscape Architects, later RBA) to design The Woodlands, a Planned New Community on about 20,000 acres of pumped out and logged over oil fields along I-45 north of Houston. By the time the planning for The Woodlands was designed, nature had largely erased past damage and the tract really is an attractive โ€œwoodland.โ€

    Mitchellโ€™s goal for The Woodlands was to meet the economic and social goals for a Balanced Planned New Community that were articulated by Jim Rouse (Columbia, MD) and Bob Simon (Reston, VA) AND to go far beyond them in ecological sensitivity. Although ecology was an important element in the plans for both of these Planned New Communities and there are thousands of acres of OpenSpace in both, The Woodlands present significant ecological challenges.

    (For a summary of EMRโ€™s relationship with Richard P. Browne Associates (RBA) and to Columbia, MD, Reston, VA, Burke Centre, VA, Fairfax Center, VA, The Woodlands, TX, and Peachtree City, GA and other Planned New Communities, see the BIO / CV page at www.emrisse.com .)

    Unlike Columbia and Reston which are located in โ€˜the uplands,โ€™ The Woodlands is in โ€˜the lowlandsโ€™ and not far from the extensive Gulf flood zones. Much of The Woodlands site was and is subject to flooding.

    The eco-plumbing planned by McHarg and designed and implemented by Browne and others over the past 40 years โ€˜works.โ€™

    The Woodlands has turned out to be a magnificent place to live, to work and to seek Services. It is the perfect place for a Households with 2.5 kids, 2 dogs and Suburban (the state car of Texas) and a Corvette, Eldorado or Land Rover. There are great Recreation facilities and fabulous Amenity IF the Household one has a lot of money and two or more Large, Private Vehicles.

    In most of the Census Tracts that make up The Woodlands over 60 percent of Households have incomes over $100,000, some tracks have over a third of the Households with incomes of over $200,000. Several census tracks have over 25 percent of citizens with masters degree or more.

    And the downside?

    The space to drive and park Autonomobiles AND the space required for the Green Infrastructure make for long drives within the Community.

    In other words the attractive use of landscaping โ€“ the wildflowers are magnificent โ€“ and hiding the Urban fabric behind generous OpenSpace buffers is attractive but when the Urban fabric is further disaggregated by the Green Infrastructure the result is not functional, unless one can afford Large, Private Vehicles, extensive use of school buses, etc. The magnificent pathway system is used for recreation, not a substitute for reliance on Large, Private Vehicles.
    See THE PROBLEM WITH CARS โ€“ PART THREE of TRILO-G.

    AN ALTERNATIVE TO MORE WAR

    Landscape Urbanists claim to have a reverence to organic systems but do not understand that human settlement patterns, especially Urban fabric IS AN ORGANIC SYSTEM and that there must be an overarching and comprehensive Conceptual Framework for understanding human settlement patterns.

    New Urbanist build great components of human settlement at the Cluster and Neighborhood scales but have no overarching Conceptual Framework and no robust Vocabulary with which to articulate that Framework.

    The path forward requires both sensitive design reflecting human needs at the Cluster and Neighborhood scale AND understanding of the ecological context at all scales.

    One way to achieve that goal is The Third Way outlined in HANDBOOK: Three Step Process to Create Balanced Communities and Sustainable New Urban Regions โ€“ PART TWELVE of TRILO-G.

    EMR


  • Cantor’s Pork Vote Is Hush-Hush

    Eric “Young Gun” Cantor, the Republican House Majority Leader from Henrico County, seemed older and out-gunned Wednesday when new Republican members in the GOP-controlled House voted 233-198 to kill an alternative engine for the new F-35 strike fighter that even the Pentagon didn’t want.

    More than half of the new Congressmen voted against the engine that the House’s older leadership, represented by Cantor and House Speaker John Boehner of Ohio, worked desperately to keep in the federal budget.

    Their reason? Pure pork. The alternative engines would be built jointly by Rolls Royce, which has its North American headquarters in Virginia, and in Ohio where partner General Electric has big manufacturing plants. The House decided to drop the alternative and go with the main supplier, Pratt & Whitney, thus saving $450 million.

    One place you won’t read the story is the Richmond Times-Dispatch, which ran a wire service piece about the vote but (predictably) left out any mention of the role of Prince Eric, whom the newspaper deeply loves and whose wife, Diana, serves on the board of parent firm Media General.

    The irony is that Cantor had cast himself in a book he co-wrote called “Young Guns” last year that depicted himself as a youthful, vibrant, deficit and budget-cutting kind of guy. It was meant to play in the mid-term elections which saw a number of GOP victories, such as recapturing the House. The bad guy was free-spending President Barack Obama, who also asked to cut the second jet engine and save billions.

    Now, however, it seems that some of those even younger “Young Guns” have the gumption to stand up to oldster such as Cantor and Boehner. Backed the the Tea Party movement, some actually believe it when they say they want to cut the federal budget, and that means Pentagon sacred cows.

    Odder still is that this particular sacred cow is something to military does not want. They seem happy with the P&W engine for the new fighter jets that will be used buy the Navy, Air Force and Marine Corps. The 2,443 airplanes will cost $382 billion. Defense Secretary Robert Gates says that not adding the extra engine will eventually save $3 billion.

    For further news, one place not to look is the Richmond Times Dispatch.

    Peter Galuszka

  • Ignoring the Truth About Offshore Oil

    Besides the funny papers, one of my favorite Sunday morning treats is skimming the Commentary section of the Richmond Times-Dispatch.

    It is filled with plenty of amusing material, such as the usual local boosterism nonsense from the publisher, why we should ignore anything coming from the Congressional Budget Office and why we should beware Democrat Barack Obama cozying up to Communist China. It was Republican Richard M. Nixon who made the breakthrough to Beijing years ago, but I gather that little fact is too deep for the RTD’s editorial staff.

    Imagine my smile when I saw a piece by Michael Thompson, head of a right-wing, libertarian outfit made up of lobbyists and think tankers grandly called the Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy. Its annual reports feature TJ statues is various heroic and triumphant poses. It also owns the old Bacons Rebellion e-zine, which is too bad, because it used to be a pretty good publication.

    Thompson bemoans the fact that Obama has restricted oil lease sales off the East Coast for about six years. He says that anytime we try to muscle up and create jobs, Bad Old Washington and untrustworthy Obama “make sure we fight these battles with one arm tied behind our back.” Thompson also assumes that the offshore area is particularly “Virginian” which presumably means that much of the revenue from any oil (still unfound) would go to Virginia and any oil spill disaster miles offshore would affect only Virginia.

    The column is strange both in its content and its timing. We’re still not that far away from the worst environmental disaster in the U.S, namely, the BP/Deepwater Horizon, also known as the Macondo, blowout in the Gulf of Mexico.

    Just as I was reading Thomson’s puff piece, in which he predictably buries Deepwater on the newspaper jump page, I was also reading “In Too Deep. BP and the Drilling Race That Took It Down.” This book by Bloomberg Press takes a hard look at the managerial culture at BP and the sloppy regulatory climate in the U.S. that led to Macondo.

    The authors are Alison Fitzgerald and Stanley Reed, both Bloomberg reporters. I can vouch for Stanley. He and I worked at BusinessWeek in the late 1980s and 1990s. Reed knows oil and the Middle Eastern thoroughly. He worked in Cairo for years, speaks fluent Arabic and later, as BW’s London Bureau Chief, covered BP extensively along with the global oil industry.

    In a nutshell, the authors note how BP under former chief executive John Browne went through a feverish effort to expand reserves and boost BP from its second tier status into a true behemoth. Simultaneously, Browne was chopping operational expenses left and right while all the while seeking new elephant oil fields that often were in dangerous and tricky deep water.

    These conflicting goals, and Browne’s over attention on the upstream (exploration and acquisition) side of the business, were reasons why BP’s Bay City, Texas refinery, one of the largest in the U.S, blew up in 2005 with fatal results.

    Macondo, of course, signalled any number of flaws, from bad technology at the ocean floor about a mile down to too much corporate cost cutting to too much attention paid to individual worker safety while forgetting factors that lead to a catastrophic system failure.

    The federal Minerals Management Service which supposedly oversaw offshore drilling was in reality, a hot bed (literally) of cronyism. During the George W. Bush administration, the MMS saw its role as expediting oil production. Its workers accepted oil company bribes and regulators and oil officials were, literally, in bed with each other.

    In his “Drill Baby Drill” screed, Thompson mentions none of these facts. He says that the oil industry has “come together to build a $1 billion spill response system that could be mobilized within 24 hours of an offshore spill.”

    Really? Does he have details about this? Skimmers that were supposed to respond quickly to the BP spill failed miserably. A giant tanker fitted as a skimmer took weeks to get onsite and then didn’t work. Would Thompson have us believe that in the nine or so months since Deepwater Horizon was finally capped that the oil industry was come up with a wonderful new clean-up system? Even better, this gizmo could be moved miraculously from the Gulf, where it would likely be based, to the Mid-Atlantic coast within 24 hours?

    This is the problem with views such as those of the “Thomas Jefferson” lobbying outfit and some newspapers. They put out a bunch of superficial views while ignoring key points — in effect, lying. It’s too bad that Thompson’s e-zine shares the same name as this blog.

    Peter Galuszka


  • Introducing… The Wonk Salon

    My Boomergeddon project is winding down, so it’s on to the next one. This time, I’m entering the no-spin zone…. I’m not peddling my own opinions and nostrums, I’m peddling those of the brightest minds in the public policy arena: think tank scholars. I strip out all the op-eds and blog posts and digest the best — the backgrounders and research reports.

    The Wonk Salon

    If you track public policy issues, you can find an abundance of high-quality research and scholarship on the Web. Trouble is, the good stuff gets lost in the blizzard of op-ed punditry and blogorrhea. To stay current you have only two practical choices: Bookmark the websites of dozens of think tanks and scholarly organizationsโ€ฆ or visit the Wonk Salon.

    We monitor the world of wonkcraft so you donโ€™t have to.

    (See the list of organizations we follow.)

    The Wonk Salon also provides a decorous forum where policy junkies can discuss the merits of serious scholarship. Few think tanks enable comments on their studies and reports. We do. We also police the comments, deleting profanity, vulgarity, off-topic posts and personal attacks. At the Wonk Salon, we debate ideas โ€” not personalities.

    Come check it out!


  • New Views on the Civil War

    The 150th anniversary of the Civil War is approaching and it shows just how much things have changed and, in many ways, how they remain the same.

    Virginia was the epicenter of so much of the grief the war caused plus the triumph of African-American slaves who, in a new historical interpretation of the war, bravely faced death from Southerners for pushing for freedom but also somehow forced their emancipation on a reluctant North.

    What’s important to note is that many of the political and constitutional issues that the war brought forward are still being battled over today, namely the 14 Amendment which gave African-American slaves citizenship if they were born on U.S. Today, some conservatives want to repeal the 14th Amendment because they see it being used by mostly Hispanic illegal immigrants who cook up a legal stew on citizenship if they have babies in the U.S.

    I had the pleasure of putting these questions to Ed Ayers, the preident of the University of Richmond who is a well-regarded historian and scholar on the Civil War and Amerian history. His interview with me has run in two publications, Diverse Issues in Higher Education and in Richmond’s Style Weekly.

    Meeting with me in his study last December, Ayers gave me an hour’s worth of commentary that I found remarkable for its precision and breadth. His key point is that unlike earlier rembrances where Blacks didn’t get to play much of a role, the Sesquicentennial will celebrate Emanicaption as much as the war itself. He blieves that Blacks cleverly forced their emancipation on the North, which he says later celebrated themselves as great human rights heroes.

    He has a point. When the Centennial opened in 1961, I was a boy of about eight living in the D.C. area. The war to me meant lots of cool and gory trading cards showing Confederate and Yankee troops getting blown in half by cannon fire. Indeed, much of the celebration dealt with the usual White Southerner stuff about tactical manuevers by genius Southern generals and the romantic sacrifice for a lost Southern cause. This view was reinforced later in my life when I lived in North Carolina and in Virginia.

    As Ayers pointed out, this manufactured view changed since it hit at a key moment in the Civil Rights movement with Selma, and the March on Washington, the dead college boys in Mississippi, and later race riots in Northern and MidWestern cities. Virginia started the Centennial with Massive Resistance to integration and by the time it ended in 1965, it was still a felony for a White and Black person to marry.

    Here are a few highlights from Dr. Ayer’s interview:

    Regarding the a controversy in Virginia about textbooks erroenously saying that 200,000 Blacks fought for the South.

    “This has been a major point that those who would like to resist this revolution in understanding: If black men had fought for the Confederacy, then the war could not have been about slavery. Itโ€™s the reason people want to show that. But in fact we know that 200,000 black men fought for the Union. While there may have been some who picked up a gun in defense of the Confederacy or alongside their owner, thereโ€™s been nothing like this.
    “Why the North fought against slavery was because black people forced it to be a war against slavery. They started flooding to these Union camps. They started demanding to be an ally in their own freedom. And itโ€™s that northern men started running in shortages for enlistments. So the North needed black men to fight. The number of black troops who fought is larger than all the troops that fought at Gettysburg. This is a significant number of people who were fighting.
    You also see that you didnโ€™t have to be a black soldier to damage the Confederacy and thereby help the Union. Everywhere they could, women escaped to the Union from slavery as fast as they could. When their men were gone, many just refused to work. Without force, they said, now our time is our own. Weโ€™ll feed our children. Weโ€™ll take care of ourselves. Weโ€™ll get a crop in the ground.”

    You have people fighting Hispanic immigration and as part of that they want to repeal the 14th Amendment. You have the anti-immigration laws in Arizona and Prince William Count. Whatโ€™s the context here?

    “It shows that issues touched by the Civil War havenโ€™t left us. That’s why itโ€™s important to understand where the 14th amendment came form in the first place. Every time we think this story is behind us, we find that it is not. Slavery is the great sin of this countryโ€™s history, followed by nearly 100 years of segregation. We canโ€™t think we can just put it behind us. The Civil War is woven into all the hard questions about American society. It involves the powers of the state versus the federal government just this week about health care. There are two things here. One strand is how federalism works. The other is about the place of race and injustice in our society. These two things are always weaving together. The sesquicentennial gives us a way to see that this is all part of the same story.”

    Richmond may be a city of monuments to Confederate generals. But if you go to other Southern cities such as Charleston, S.C, you see them marketing the “Confederacy” to tourists with the flags and uniforms. You donโ€™t see that here. Somehow itโ€™s OK there but not here. Why?

    “Richmond was the capital of the Confederacy. Weโ€™ve had one struggle after the other about this and itโ€™s not productive. Youโ€™ve had the struggle over the floodwall; the Lincoln statue. One of the best days I have had in Richmond was at the unveiling of the Civil Rights Memorial at the capitol. African-Americans in Farmville began a moral revolution in this country.

    “Richmond had half the battles of the Civil War taking place 30 miles from here. Charleston had one day in the Civil War when it fires on Fort Sumter. Richmond, on the other hand, was the center of suffering for so long.”

    For the complete interview, read Style.

    Peter Galuszka


  • Mapping Virginia’s Human Settlement Patterns

    The New York Times has published an awesome tool for visualizing human settlement patterns. I could play with it all day long! The tool, “Mapping America: Every City, Every Block,” breaks down the nation into Census tracts and displays the population with a dot for every 1,000 people in the map scale seen to the left. (As a cool aside, the dots are color coded by race, making it possible to get a sense of how segregated or integrated different communities are.)

    Thus, we can see that the New York metropolitan area — the NY Times’ home turf — is one of the mostly densely settled, if not the most densely settled, places in the country.

    We can also see that the Washington metro- politan area, by national standards, is densely populated in the urban core but that the human settlement patterns outside the core are highly scattered, both on the Virginia side of the Potomac as well as the Maryland side. This vivid, high-altitude view (which is the same scale, by the way, as the New York map above) depicts what people imprecisely refer to as “suburban sprawl,” or what EMR and I refer to as scattered, disconnected, low-density human settlement patterns.

    Now, let’s zoom in for a closer look at the Virginia side of the Washington metro area. Here we can see the truth in EMR’s oft-stated dictum that if all of Northern Virginia were settled as compactly as Arlington and Alexandria — hardly examples of dystopic density — the entire population could fit into an area the size of Fairfax County. If the region’s population were that compact, imagine the possibilites for creating the same kind of alternative transportation systems — both bus and heavy rail — that allows Arlington to boast of the highest rate of mass transit ridership in the country outside of New York! (At this scale, one dot equals 500 people.)

    Finally, let’s take a look at RoVa (the Rest of Virginia), in particular my home town of Richmond, which I love dearly in nearly every way but its extraordinarily inefficient human settlement patterns — a flaw that ultimately may prove to be its economic undoing. Here you can clearly see two small patches of moderate density development (in the Fan, the blue patch, meaning mostly white people live there, and in Church Hill, the green patch, meaning mostly African-Americans live there). You can see low-moderate density in western Henrico County (the upper left-hand quadrant), while the rest is extraordinarily low-density development. Richmonders periodically fantasize about supporting light rail transit but, as the maps shows, the scattered, low-density distribution of the population makes the idea a cruel delusion.

    Hampton Roads is no more densely settled than the Richmond area, if you care to check the map. Smaller cities like Roanoke, Lynchburg and Charlottesville are even lower density. Just imagine how expensive it is to provide infrastructure and municipal services to a such a scattered, low-density population. Yes, there are costs associated with providing services to people in an extremely dense environment, too. I’m not suggesting that Virginia should let its urban cores evolve into mini-Manhattans. But I am suggesting that the sweet spot for providing infrastructure is a density comparable to that in Arlington and Alexandria.

  • INFRASTRUCTURE PART TWO POINT ONE

    OH BOY!

    Mr. Bacon came forward with his 10 percent concern about the SYNERGY take on INFRASTRUCTURE and it is a WINNER!!

    EMR agrees with almost 100 percent of Baconโ€™s 10 percent reservation.

    What is even better, his โ€˜reservationโ€™ is a big fat pitch right over the heart of the plate.

    More on that in a moment, but first:

    WHAT MR. BACON SAID:

    โ€œOK, I’m back for a second try… As usual, I agree with 90% of what EMR says here. There *is* a housing and affordability crisis, there *is* a mobility and access crisis, dysfunctional human settlement patterns *are* at the root of both, and the key to reforming human settlement patterns *is* (a) governance reform, (b) devising rules by which people pay the location-variable costs of where they live, work and play, and (c) (my emphasis) dismantling the zoning/regulatory policies virtually mandate the scattered, disconnected, low-density pattern of land use that plague us today.

    โ€œAlso, let me say that I enjoyed EMR’s perspective on the tradeoffs between affordability, fuel mileage and safety in autonomobiles — a fresh analysis I had not seen anywhere before.

    โ€œThat said, it is inevitable in a conversation to focus on areas of disagreement. While I agree with EMR that the economics of building a transportation system around autonomobiles has reached a dead end, I can’t say I’m enthralled with the alternatives.

    [Mr. Bacon said: I CAN’T SAY I’M ENTHRALLED WITH THE ALTERNATIVES!!

    BACON IS RIGHT…

    IF HE MEANS THE ALTERNATIVES MOST OTHERS HAVE PUT ON THE TABLE.

    But so far in these three perspectives on infrastructure, EMR has only talked about WHAT DOES NOT WORK and why citizens and their Agencies, Enterprises and Institutions must understand what makes Urban settlements functional BEFORE they build INFRA to support their STRUCTURE.]

    โ€œYes, redesigning the urban space can make it possible for people to take more trips on foot and by bicycle (or, who knows, by Segway). That we should do. But let’s be realistic, bicycles will never be more than a niche mode of transportation, and walking is useful only for very short trips.

    [The future of AFFORDABLE Mobility and Access requires that the vast majority of Urban trips be VERY SHORT TRIPS. In the most functional Urban places, they already are — that is what makes them great places to live, work and seek Services.]

    โ€œMy reservation about buses, light rail, heavy rail and high-speed intercity rail is that they all require massive subsidies.โ€

    [Because of the current station area settlement patterns as demonstrated in the case of Tysons Corner. The Silver Line could pay for itself IF it was not a give away to adjacent land speculators. Right TMT?]

    โ€œ Creating more functional land use patterns undoubtedly would improve the dismal economics of buses and perhaps light rail, but there is no getting around the fact that the up-front capital costs of heavy rail are extremely high, that projects routinely experience massive cost overruns, and they will continue needing operating subsidies on an ongoing basis. Do we really want a transportation system with those characteristics as we hurtle towards Boomergeddon?

    โ€œSay what you will about roads and highways, it is possible to make them pay their own way through user fees (gas taxes, mileage taxes, tolls, whatever) in a way that is not possible with mass transit.โ€

    [When roadways do pay their full cost, then roadways and the private vehicles to use them will be more expensive than most Households will be able to pay.]

    โ€œ Here in Virginia, Gov. McDonnell has veered away from the user-pays principle, trying to pay for road improvements by means of anything but user fees. But conceptually, switching to a user fee basis of paying for roads/highways is easy, even if the political will is lacking. The end result may be that roads will cost more than people would like, or roads will be more congested than they want, or more people will be driven to buses, vans, carpools, but the basic principle of people paying their location-variable costs would be maintained.

    โ€œBy contrast, there is no way to get people to pay the location-variable costs of using heavy rail. The best you can hope for in places like Tysons Corner is to reduce the subsidies by introducing more functional human settlement patterns. (There may be niche cases where rail can be made profitable, but I doubt we can build an entire transportation system around them.)

    [The Hong Kong heavy rail shared vehicle system is a money making proposition โ€“ at least it was when the Brits walked away, not telling what it is with Chinese accounting โ€“ but that does not solve the problem for most large Urban agglomerations.]

    โ€œBottom line: I say we have to reform human settlement patterns, make people pay their location-variable costs, and then let the market decide. I am a transportation mode agnostic. I don’t see how subsidizing heavy rail is any more virtuous than subsidizing roads and highways. If I’m wrong about the economics of heavy rail, if someone can figure out how to make heavy rail pay (without offloading all the risk to the taxpayer), then I’m all for it. If I’m right, then I guess we’re stuck with cars and shared-vehicle systems (buses, vans, carpools) that can run on road/highway infrastructure as our alternatives.โ€

    [As one can see there are some small quibbles but EMR is 99 percent on board. One other quibble below.]

    BACON IS 99 PERCENT RIGHT ABOUT HIS 10 PERCENT RESERVATION

    To be specific Bacon says โ€œbuses, light rail, heavy rail and high-speed intercity railโ€ are NOT THE ANSWER.

    That does not mean that Large, Private Vehicles and roadways ARE the answer, only that there must be an alternative. A fair allocation of costs is a place to start as Bacon suggest, BUT…

    The fact that there must be an alternative is EXACTLY what EMR demonstrates in WHAT COMES AFTER THE CAR (Forthcoming,)

    The topic could be left there but will take it a step further:

    The REASON that โ€œbuses, light rail, heavy rail and high-speed intercity railโ€ are NOT THE ANSWER is that each example of each mode has a native sweet spot on The Cost of Services Curve for STATION AREA land use patterns and densities.

    The proof of this settlement pattern axiom can be found in moderate scale Urban agglomerations such as Goteborg, Sweden and Freiburg, Germany where light rail matches the settlement pattern for most of the Urban fabric. Goteborg is the best example because the Urban agglomeration has grown up around a light rail armature.

    However, No large Urban agglomeration is uniform and so one size cannot fit all. And, none of the candidates that Bacon lists achieve optimum Mobility and Access at rational cost for the variety of settlement patterns at the Cluster, Neighborhood, Village and Community scales that are economically viable AND ecologically sustainable where the vast majority of Urban citizens can be happy and safe.

    The Large Urban agglomeration with the best Mobility and Access FOR THE LARGEST PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION, especially those who cannot afford a LARGE, PRIVATE VEHICLE (Stockholm, London, Paris, Toronto, Vancouver, Berlin, Wien, and others) employ a variety of different shared vehicle systems. But none achieve optimum Mobility and Access at rational cost for the full spectrum of settlement pattern alternatives that are economically viable AND ecologically sustainable where the vast majority of Urban citizens can be happy and safe.

    ONE OTHER QUIBBLE.

    Jim too often jumps to the conclusion that something that will cost a lot for Agencies to provide (aka, massive subsidies) is bad per se.

    Not so.

    Urban civilization is VERY expensive. Humans have been living on natural capital โ€“ not
    just stored cheap energy but that is the big one.

    If humans are to continue to enjoy civilization as it has evoked to date EVERYONE WILL HAVE TO PAY MUCH MORE:

    HOUSEHOLDS,

    AGENCIES,

    ENTERPRISES,

    INSTITUTIONS.

    That does not take away form the fact that WHAT FOLLOWS THE AUTONOMOBILE will need to be flexible. The good thing is that on a seat-mile basis it will be far, far cheaper โ€“ but not free and not even cheap.

    More in WHAT COMES AFTER THE CAR.

    EMR


  • INFRASTRUCTURE MANIA PART TWO

    So far the comments following INFRASTRUCTURE MEDIA raise few serious questions. EMR addressed one and will try to get to a second one but there is one inquiry that deserves special attention. It is buried so deep in musings, cuteness, irrelevant reminiscences, misconceptions, Idea Spam and Intentional Information Sabotage that few may have gotten to it so it will be addressed here.

    Burying relevant observations and questions is yet another demonstration why THE LITMUS TEST is critical.

    The fact that there are few thoughtful comments is evidence that ALMOST NO ONE is willing to seriously consider looking into the ABYSS that is life in the Post Autonomobile Age โ€“ especially in the US.

    Richard Florida โ€“ and many others โ€“ contend that the Autonomobile Age is almost over. An ever growing number have been predicting this since 1925 but the evidence is now overwhelming that dominance of the Large, Private Vehicle is in decline โ€“ except in the imagination of those who are promoting INFRASTRUCTURE MANIA.

    Yes, humans will use vehicles and yes, some vehicles will be operated exclusively by their owners but no amount of subsidy can sustain for much longer a condition where Large, Private Vehicles are the dominant mode by which Urban humans achieve Mobility and Access. It is a matter of physics as well as economics.

    THE QUESTION IS:

    At 11:28 PM on the day before Groundhogโ€™s Day Jim Bacon asked:

    โ€œEd, I’m curious about this statement:

    “At the present time half of the working adults in the US cannot afford to buy and maintain a Large, Private Vehicle that is fuel efficient AND safe to drive on the Interstate Highway System.”

    โ€œI’m wondering what you base that upon. If you said that half the working adults cannot afford a โ€œnewโ€ large, private vehicle, then I would find that plausible. But the average age of the auto fleet is close to 10 years now. There are a lot of depreciated, inexpensive second-hand cars on the market.

    โ€œAdmittedly, the older the car, the more expensive the maintenance. That’s probably a bigger cost than gasoline.

    โ€œStill, I’m wondering what you base the statement on.โ€

    EMR is glad Mr. Bacon raised this question!

    SOME BACKGROUND

    The statement quoted above is from the current draft of WHAT FOLLOWS THE AUTONOMOBILE (Forthcoming).

    Most know that with respect to the Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis, the fact that X percent of the Y cohort cannot afford the median priced house is an eye catcher. But is there a similar hook for the Mobility and Access Crisis?

    To find shelter when there is no Affordable Housing close to Jobs / Services / Recreation / Amenity, citizens have been forced to seek Housing in locations that are Accessible only with Large, Private Vehicles.

    This has made the Mobility and Access Crisis worse and worse each year as TTI documents in its annual Urban Mobility Study.

    Some understand that even within the settlement patterns that are designed to optimize use of Large, Private Vehicles these vehicles have NEVER been able to provide Mobility and Access to over half the individuals in the resident population. The majority of the population is too young, too old or too unfirm to drive and park Large, Private Vehicles.

    Even in Planned New Communities with:

    โ— Densities as low as 10 persons per acre at the Alpha Community scale,

    โ— Abundant sidewalks, bike paths,

    โ— Many Clusters and Neighborhoods with higher density, some with mixed uses, and

    โ— A concerted effort to provide non-Large, Private Vehicle Mobility and Access,

    The percentage of citizens that could use Large, Private Vehicles by themselves has almost never been over 50 percent. This is because these places tend to attract larger families and do not provide the amenities sought by the Households without children.

    It is clear to a growing number โ€“ those who bother to consider the facts โ€“ that even with free fuel and Gee Whiz technology Large, Private Vehicles cannot provide Mobility and Access for the majority of citizens in large Urban agglomerations. The reasons are spelled out in THE PROBLEM WITH CARS.

    There is NOT ONE large Urban agglomeration on the planet that does not have one or more shared vehicle systems. The Urban areas with:

    โ— The highest value per square foot of built space,

    โ— The highest value per square foot of land area, and

    โ— The most voluntary visitors (aka, tourists)

    Are almost always served by shared vehicle systems.

    The days of Dallas, Houston, Denver and Salt Lake thumbing their noses at shared vehicle systems is history.

    Pedestrian and bike trips are the fastest growing mode of travel in almost every large Urban agglomeration except in China. That will change now that there are new taxes on private cars in recognition of the fact that shared-vehicles and pedestrian / bike movement is necessary to support large Urban agglomeration. The vast Chinese investment in High Speed Rail is a drop in the bucket compared to the cost of an attempt โ€“ which would eventually fail โ€“ to provide the Mobility and Access to which Chinese citizens aspire via Large (or small), Private Vehicles.

    AND AFTER THE CAR?

    To move past THE PROBLEM and consider what comes AFTER the car, a new perspective was needed. That โ€˜hookโ€™ caught the attention of Jim Bacon.

    The statement:

    “At the present time half of the working adults in the US cannot afford to buy and maintain a Large, Private Vehicle that is fuel efficient AND safe to drive on the Interstate Highway System.”

    is crafted to make clear that:

    โ— Even โ€œworking adultsโ€ โ€“ and not just welfare slackers, meandering teens and old folks โ€“ are in need of alternatives to Large, Private Vehicles. (Including the able-bodied but unemployed would increase the percentage but detract from the focus.)

    โ— Buy AND maintain in SAFE condition are important parameters because when a vehicle is over 3 or 4 years old (out of the dealerโ€™s โ€˜free serviceโ€™ sales incentive) the cost of maintenance increases dramatically and the more Gee Whiz technology, the higher the cost to keep the vehicle up to spec and thus โ€˜safeโ€™ and fuel efficient.

    โ— Fuel efficiency is critical because of the rising cost of energy. Fuel efficiency and maintenance go hand in hand.

    โ— The test of โ€œSafety on the Interstate Systemโ€ is the key.

    Old and poorly maintained cars are not safe to drive at high speed, especially on โ€˜mixed-trafficโ€™ expressways with sleep deprived over-the-road-drivers pushing long haul rigs with multiple safety violations much less other unsafe drivers in unsafe cars.

    Drop the Interstate speed limit to 50 mph and those who could afford a โ€˜safeโ€™ car would increase by at least 10 percent. Pandering politicians keep raising the speed limit to the determent of fuel efficiency AND safety.

    If there was a rational criteria of visibility FROM a vehicle, the number of cars that are deemed โ€˜safeโ€™ to drive on the Interstate system would go down by about the same amount as decreasing the speed limit would raise the qualifying vehicles.

    There have been aerodynamic cars since the mid 20s but only when fuel efficiency became a concern did wind drag become a major design consideration. The design to increase efficiency has drastically reduced visibility from the car.

    As EMR pointed out to Larry Gross:

    The strategy of autonomobile makers has been:

    โ— Deliver as little real change as possible each year,

    โ— Induce purchase of new vehicles as often as possible,

    โ— Make the vehicles as expensive as possible so that the profit per unit is as high as possible.

    All these
    factors increase the percentage who cannot afford a safe, fuel efficient vehicle.

    IS THE 50 PERCENT NUMBER PRECISE?

    With so many variables it is hard to say but using the criteria for โ€˜affordabilityโ€™ for location efficient mortgages and other parameters the number โ€˜half the working adultsโ€ is probably โ€˜conservative.โ€™ EMR is ALWAYS conservative.

    If drive-til-you-qualify is thought of as the way that Affordable and Accessible Housing is provided for those at the bottom of the food chain, then long distances on the Interstate system โ€“ or similar limited access roadways โ€“ will be required.

    Actually, very long distance commuting has been on the decline for 30 years according to Census Data. But that is not the issue. Being forced to own a Large, Private Vehicle to travel 3, 5 or 10 miles contributes to the cumulative problem of space to drive and park and the disaggregation of Urban fabric.

    If one has to own a jalopy to drive 15 miles a day to work, the settlement patterns makes these citizens a slave to both economic and spacial parameters.

    More in WHAT COMES AFTER THE AUTONOMOBILE.

    Oh yes, it looks like the pandering politicians of the Commonwealth will join hands to approve the $4 Billion Beg, Barrow and Steal Anti Mobility and Access Boondoggle.

    Even if it cannot be stopped now, it will die soon due to its short-sighted design.

    At least one can say โ€œWHAT DID I TELL YOU!!โ€

    AARRRGH SQUARED!!

    EMR


  • INFRASTRUCTURE MANIA

    !! AARRRGH !!

    Oh, the frustration!

    As Peter Galuszka has noted, EMR has not posted much at BRB of late.

    This is NOT just due to travel, holidays, snow or even the process of aging.

    At SYNERGY there are a number of new projects and Perspectives well on the way to publication BUT

    The PLAN was to get out the next version of CITIZEN MEDIA that includes THE LITMUS TEST before other items were published.

    Many of those who have worked on THE LITMUS TEST (TLT) believe TLT is an important step toward protecting intellectual inquiry from Idea Spam โ€“ as distinguished from Personal Relationship Spam and Enterprise Spam which are two more widely recognized forms of electronic communication pollution.

    TLT is intended to provide a firewall to protect citizens not just from Idea Spam but from Intentional Information Sabotage.

    Alas, progress on the CITIZEN MEDIA redraft is slow; TOO SLOW when there is an immediate threat that can undermine peace, security, economic prosperity, social stability and environmental sustainability in the Commonwealth and across the US.

    That danger is INFRASTRUCTURE MANIA. Agencies are about to waste $ Trillions on infrastructure.

    Both the Elephant Clan and the Donkey Clan are posed to dump outrageous sums on outrageously wasteful infrastructure in the name of โ€˜jobs,โ€™ โ€˜recoveryโ€™ and โ€˜economic growthโ€™

    The Presidentโ€™s State of the Union speech contains non-specific language proposing nation-wide โ€˜action.โ€™

    In the Commonwealth, The Clown Show is about endorse pandering politicians scheme to dump $4 Billion onto a road builders, equipment suppliers and land speculators wish list.

    Mr. Bacon has focused on the debt that will flow from this activity. This IS a major concern, BUT…

    Debt and lining political contributors pockets is just the tip of the iceberg.

    STRAWS IN THE WIND

    Earlier this week when Neal Pierce (Washington Writers Group) published โ€œNew Infrastructure Strategy: Yes, Build โ€“ BUTโ€ EMR hoped that he could just cite Pierce toss out an attaboy and keep working on CITIZEN MEDIA. http://citiwire.net/post/2496

    No such luck. Nealโ€™s โ€˜butsโ€™ are valid BUT pale compared to the real reasons to be concerned about wasting Trillions of dollars on โ€˜infrastructure.โ€™

    INFRASTRUCTURE TO SUPPORT WHAT?

    As explored at more length below in the section on GREEN INFRASTRUCTURE, infrastructure is NOT a free standing thing. What is called โ€œinfrastructureโ€ is ONLY REALLY INFRASTRUCTURE if supports a needed and functional STRUCTURE โ€“ in this case, the built environment to support human civilization (aka, functional human settlement patterns).

    Otherwise it is just a waste of time and money.

    As spelled out in THE PROBLEM WITH CARS โ€“ PART THREE of TRILO-G the Autonomobile is a primary cause of dysfunctional human settlement patterns. Why build more of what made Urban settlement patterns dysfunctional?

    WHAT COMES AFTER THE AUTONOMOBILE? (Forthcoming) is a follow up to THE PROBLEM WITH CARS which articulates the physical and economic reasons why Large, Private vehicles cannot provide Mobility and Access to Urban citizens.

    One of the key reasons is that:

    At the present time half of the working adults in the US cannot afford to buy and maintain a Large, Private Vehicle that is fuel efficient AND safe to drive on the Interstate Highway System.

    In the context of:

    โ— The rising cost of energy and Peak Petroleum, and

    โ— The demonstrated inability of Agencies to build and maintain infrastructure required to operate Large, Private Vehicles;

    There obviously must be a successor to the Autonomobile if Urban citizens are to have Access and Mobility.

    These facts also mean that Agencies must solve the Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis if there is to be a solution to the Mobility and Access Crisis.

    Both are solved ONLY if there are functional, Balanced and sustainable human settlements.

    Building more of the infrastructure that caused settlement pattern dysfunction will not just create more debt, it will make EVENTUALLY solving the Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis and the Mobility and Access Crisis much more expensive, and perhaps impossible.

    THE ROADWAY CHOIR

    How does one know that Billions at the Regional scale and Trillions at the nation-state scale need to be thrown at โ€˜the infrastructure problem?โ€™

    The Roadway Choir has been singing that song for decades.

    The annual reaffirmation of faith in the Access and Mobility Myth from the Texas Transportation Institute (TTI) arrive on 20 January. TTIโ€™s Urban Mobility Report STILL has the same tragic flaws that were pointed out in Column # 39 (of 131) โ€œSpinning Data, Spinning Wheelsโ€ back on 20 September 2004.

    It also continues to be used to justify spending money to solve the WRONG problem as pointed out in โ€œDriven Apartโ€ See DRIVEN APART, FINALLY at BRB 6 October 2010.

    (By the way, the comments following this post document need for THE LITMUS TEST as noted by CRS at the end of the comments.)

    In a ONE PAGE follow-up to Driven Apart, Julia NAILS the problems with the TTI report. Note the reference to โ€œland use patterns.โ€ Read it and weep.

    http://www.ceosforcities.org/news/entry/2958/2010-umr-remains-a-flawed-and-misleading-guide-to-urban-transportation

    The Transportation Research (sic) Board (TRB) annual meeting was just held in the Federal District. The TRB meeting is the annual pilgrimage of The Roadway Choir to the Mecca of transportation funding and dysfunction. Ken Orski reports The Roadway Choir is STILL in full throat with the same old songs. (EMRs favorite is โ€œGive Us More Money to Spend on the Roadway to Gridlock,โ€ a true classic!)

    (Observer has suggests that if VDOT spent as much on SLUG LINES each month as they did on hotel bills and entertainment at TRB, they would reduce congestion twice as much โ€“ by any useful measure โ€“ as the $4 Billion serving of asphalt pork. Yes there are some Shared Vehicle System spices but the real money is in Autonomobile pork. See http://www.slug-lines.com/

    THE ENVIROS

    Those who claim to be the Anti-Roadway Choir are not helping much.

    In the context of the $4 Billion pork package a leader of the environment / smarter growth crowd is quoted as saying:

    โ€œOur nation is broke โ€“ we cannot afford to try to build our way out of congestionโ€

    That statement sends the WRONG message. There are many who still believe with enough tax cuts for the rich and reductions in NPR spending, โ€˜our nationโ€™ will be rich…

    To paraphrase Will Owen: โ€œNo matter how much money is thrown at the problem, there are almost NO infrastructure solutions to the Mobility and Access Crisis.โ€ See Chapters 13,14 and 25 of THE SHAPE OF THE FUTURE, THE PROBLEM WITH CARS โ€“ PART THREE of TRILO-G and WHAT FOLLOWS THE AUTONOMOBILE (Forthcoming).

    Saying โ€˜the nation is brokeโ€™ (which Bacon and others say is yet some ways off) is continuing the practice by what is now called โ€œThe Environmental NGOs and their Enterprise Partnersโ€ to reach for the LOW HANGING RHETORICAL FRUIT.

    The message must be FUNDAMENTAL TRANSFORMATION!

    Ya HEAR?

    CONVENTIONAL OBLIVIOUSNESS

    Then there are well-meaning but poorly informed who clap for The Roadway Choir.

    Two comments on BRB will illustrate this problem.

    In the comments following โ€œThe Vice Tightens,โ€ 14 January:

    At 9:01 AM on 15 Jan 11:

    โ€œJim, you and EMR have some very interesting long term ideas about transportation and land use. However, your ideas will take a long
    time to organize, enact, plan and implement. And those are just the pre-requisite steps before the ideas start to have an impact. In the meantime?โ€

    These ideas are NOT โ€œlong term.โ€ As noted REPEATEDLY the biggest change will be inside the heads of those who believe Business-As-Usual is an intelligent or sustainable strategy.

    And at 9:11 AM on 15 Jan 11:

    โ€œAs an aside, here are the transportation projects which could be funded by the additional debt.โ€

    Citing a VDOT laundry list is just clapping for The Roadway Choir.

    ON HIGH SPEED RAIL

    One of the things current administration has gotten right about infrastructure is to appoint Ray LaHood as Secretary of US DOT. For a very good summary of the perspective of Joe Boardman AmTrakโ€™s President.

    http://www.masstransitmag.com/print/Mass-Transit/Backbone-of-an-Industry/1$13234

    Boardman does a fine job of putting rial and High Speed Rail (HSR) in context of US infrastructure needs. One problem he doe not focus on the key to HSR success โ€“ the pattern and density of land use within half a mile of the HSR platforms, including across the platform transfers to other Shared Vehicle Systems. (Full disclosure: Although EMR does not think he has ever met Boardman, because of where he has worked before AmTrak, there are probably at least a dozen shared acquaintances.)

    In the same issue of Mass Transit Magazine there is a great (greatly misleading) story about how to end oil dependence. T. Boone Pickens says โ€œHydrofrac the whole countryโ€ and it will result in a 100 year supply of fuel for Large, Private Vehicles.โ€ And after 100 years, hydrofraced water tables (Thank you MGM) and investment in a whole new energy infrastructure with MORE DYSFUNCTIONAL Urban settlement patterns ?

    Well, Collapse.

    http://www.masstransitmag.com/print/Mass-Transit/Ending-Our-Oil-Dependence/1$13235

    In a 4 Dec 10 post on his Boomergeddon Blog, Jim Bacon jumped on โ€œthe railroad to nowhereโ€ band wagon.

    http://boomergeddon.us/wordpress/2010/12/04/the-rail-line-to-nowhere/#comments

    Not wanting to let this pass, EMR posted the following comment which sums up his view on HSR:

    Before Jim races on to whack another mole…

    First:

    It is counterproductive to talk about the usefulness of ANY infrastructure investment unless it is in the context of the settlement pattern that this infrastructure is intended to support.

    Second:

    With respect to High Speed Rail (HSR) the settlement pattern of concern is that within half a mile of the station platforms (including across-the-platform transfers to other modes) the line between stations should take the most reasonable, least costly, lowest environmental impact route.

    Third:

    Any discussion of HSR must be considered in the context of whether the US policy is to evolve a functional and sustainable settlement pattern and a surface transport system to support this settlement pattern or if the nation-state policy / goal will continue to follow an unsustainable trajectory that involves subsidizing dysfunctional systems that rely on Large, Private Vehicles and Aircraft on routes of under 1000 miles.

    Fourth:

    One must understand the geographical context of any discussion.

    California has two MegaRegions about 500 miles apart โ€“ that is the sweet spot for HSR.

    Topography, physics and economics dictate that there are two ways to get from the Cores of one MegaRegion to the Cores of the other.

    One route is up the Pacific Ocean side of the Coast Range which has lots of places where one would NOT want to run a REAL HSR for many economic, social and physical reasons.

    The other route is via the Central Valley which has a lot of space and not much else. There are very similar, low intensity areas along the HSR between Paris and the South of France and along the major HSR lines in Spain e.g Madrid to Barcelona.

    If there is to be HSR between the two MegaRegions it needs to be up the Central Valley. The choice of starting a segment is due more to what is โ€˜shovel readyโ€™ than where the trip demand is or will be.

    Fifth:

    Ken Orski (quoted in the original post) and those he spends his time with were and are scared witless that HSR will syphon off money from their beloved roadway pork barrels.

    And So:

    HSR anywhere or a California HSR may or may not be a prudent use of federal stimulus dollars.

    But it is not a โ€œbridge to nowhere.โ€

    This is pure whack a mole aka, tossing rocks at empty pigeon holes.

    EMR

    Jim responded the that he agreed on the substance. So EMR jumped on his Citizen Media soap box.

    Jim:

    As usual we agree on the substance.

    But it is the substance that needs to be the focus of discussion.

    Whack-A-Mole and Tossing Rocks only builds the wall between substance / fact / science and fosters The Anger of Ignorance.

    AntiPartisanship is the right path but citizens of the US are still over fat and over satisfied by years of Mass OverConsumption and they are not yet ready to stop the Whack-A-Mole and Tossing Rocks At Empty Pigeon Holes (TRAEPH โ€“ someone could do something with those letters… perhaps TRAP?)

    By the time they are ready will there be any resources left to build on? Will the genetic proclivities that got humans to this point prevent them from reaching a sustainable trajectory?

    EMR sees no answer beyond the scale of the Alpha Community (ALPHA VIL 21 and THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY) but sustainability STRARTS at the New Urban Region scale and for those in MegaRegions, perhaps is not possible at smaller scales.

    Keep up the good work, abandon the Whacker and the Rocks.

    EMR

    GREEN INFRASTRUCTURE

    While on the topic of โ€˜infrastructure,โ€™ GREEN Infrastructure has a nice sound but, as SYNERGY has noted in the past, green infrastructure is not an end-all and be-all.

    The โ€œinauguralโ€ National Green Infrastructure Conference 2011 sponsored by The Conservation Fund will be held in 23 to 25 February in Shepherdstown, West Virginia. (Those environmental NGOโ€™s and their Enterprise Partners again?) If you read the hype (conference โ€œagendaโ€), one would think green infrastructure IS a end-all and be-all.

    Creating functional and sustainable green infrastructure is a fine idea. In fact it is a vital goal on the path to a sustainable trajectory for human civilization as it has evolved to itโ€™s status in January 2011.

    Viable green infrastructure is supported by almost everyone except those who see functional settlement patterns as a conspiracy to rob citizens of their personal right to live off of subsidies that support spacial dysfunction โ€“ specifically the โ€œAgenda 21″ crowd.

    Green infrastructure โ€“ by whatever name โ€“ is necessary to support humans and the environment upon which humans depend for air, water, food and shelter. However, before green infrastructure is anointed as the end-all and be-all driver of land use decisions, let us be clear:

    Green infrastructure is not alone. There is ALSO a need for black infrastructure (sidewalks, paths, streets, roadways, rails, bridges and tunnels), blue infrastructure (water supply and precipitation management), gray infrastructure (waste water, solid waste and air pollutant management), red infrastructure (energy generation, transmission and distribution), purple infrastructure (cultural, historical, psychological, aesthetic and amenity) and invisible infrastructure (the electromagnetic spectrum).

    All are critical to support modern Urban humans and to protect the natural system upon which all life depends. Given the current role of Homo sapiens on the planet, black, blue, gray, red, purple, green
    and invisible infrastructures must be designed to support FUNCTIONAL human settlement patterns.

    Currently settlement patterns are DYSFUNCTIONAL from economic, social and physical perspectives. Freezing in place major components of green infrastructure in that context is counterproductive, if not suicidal.

    That is the case because there is already far more land devoted to Urban land uses than can be efficiently used in the foreseeable future.

    Those scattered Urban uses of land cannot be supported by any infrastructure โ€“ black, blue, gray, red, purple, green or invisible. The only cohort that focusing on one infrastructure component at a time โ€“ and without regard to the structure to be served โ€“ benefits are those who hold land speculatively in the hopes of future demand for MORE scattered Urban land uses.

    Before deciding what and where green infrastructure should go, consideration must be given to functional settlement patterns for 95 percent of the population who can efficiently occupy for their daily activities ONLY about 5 percent of the land area of the lower 48 in the US. That leaves 95 percent of the land area for green, blue and purple activities.

    Intelligent design of functional human settlement patterns rarely conflicts with functional green, blue or purple infrastructure. However, green infrastructure in the wrong place can render human settlement patterns dysfunctional. See USE AND MANAGEMENT OF LAND โ€“ PART FOUR of TRILO-G.

    INVISIBLE INFRASTRUCTURE

    It is foolhardy to design ANY infrastructure in a vacuum just as it is foolhardy to over design black infrastructure to serve Autonomobiles.

    As those who understand the Access and Mobility Myth know, it is not possible for citizens in Regional agglomerations to live where they want, work where they want, seek services where they want and then have Agencies, Enterprises or Institutions design black infrastructure to get them where they want to go when the want to go there and arrive in a timely manner.

    It is becoming clear that the same is true for the invisible infrastructure. See the front page story of the 30 Nov WaPo Health and Science section which asks:

    โ€œAre we headed for a smartphone meltdown? As demand for the data-hungry [actually band-width hungry] devices skyrockets, mobile networks risk collapse : Cellphone traffic needs wider road.โ€

    This story is written from the perspective of the telecoms who what more bandwidth for their most lucrative services. The story sounds like it could have been penned by Autonomobile advocates โ€“ The Roadway Choir. It is just not possible for โ€œeveryoneโ€ to have band width hungry devices that work at the same time especially with millions of pages of โ€œcontent farmsโ€ being planted every day.

    Ironically, on the front page of the A section of the very same edition of WaPo is answer:

    โ€œWith faster cellphones come souped-up bills: New cellphone options, in a language foreign to many.โ€

    Invisible infrastructure charge should reflect actual use and then scarce resources will be fairly allocated. It is called โ€œthe market.โ€ (Yes, there must be a decision arrived at by democratic processes for what โ€˜everyoneโ€™ should have access to and then beyond that, the more you use, the more you pay. E.g. everyone gets PDFs to support useful activity free, everyone pays for the download of movies and entertainment and the bigger the download, the more one pays.)

    THE REAL MARKET SOLUTION

    So, infrastructure boils down to this:

    โ— First, functional and sustainable human settlement patterns

    โ— Second, fair allocation of location variable costs.

    Pandering politicians have taken up the chant of The Anger of Ignorance Crowd:

    โ€œNo gas taxโ€ by which they mean โ€œno CAR tax.โ€ What they really mean is โ€œincrease the subsidy for use of my Large, Private Vehicle.โ€

    After all cars and Wrong Size Houses in the Wrong locations have led us out of the last seven recessions. And, while shelter values continue on a downward trajectory โ€“ especially outside Radius = 20 Miles in the Virginia portion of the National Capital SubRegion โ€“ CARS ARE COMING BACK.

    Ford recorded record profits in the last quarter of 2010. Anyone who owns a business knows why. Business owners have been dunned with notices / ads about that huge tax break for โ€œlight trucksโ€ used in their business โ€“ write off the full value in one year. If you have cash flow and an old pickup / van / SUV or one without a DuraMax engine, an Allison Transmission and dual wheels the end of 2010 was the time to buy.

    GM sales are up too โ€“ in China. But watch out, China now realizes the stupidity of trying to meet citizen needs for Access and Mobility with Private Vehicles so they are now taxing SMALL cars. They do not want to clog the roads for the Communist Party leaders and the โ€˜entrepreneursโ€™ who drive Large, Private Vehicles.

    Consumers are not stupid. Unsafe Nanos are sitting on sales lots in India. Recall from above, even in the US:

    At the present time half of the working adults in the US cannot afford to buy and maintain a Large, Private Vehicle that is fuel efficient AND safe to drive on the Interstate Highway System.

    If you think the Autonomobile industry understands the shape of the future, check out the headliners at the Washington D.C. Autoshow. And be ready for WHAT FOLLOWS THE AUTONOMOBILE (Forthcoming.)

    All this renewed AUTO MANIA and INFRASTRUCTURE MANIA will come to a crashing conclusion unless citizens start to pay the full cost of their current civilization. That means there is a need for โ€˜some tax.โ€™ Do not rely on Public Private Partnerships tolls to generate cash for infrastructure UNTIL there agreement of the settlement pattern that needs to be provided with Mobility and Access. THEN it will be clear that there is NO low-hanging plum projects upon which to slap tolls.

    THE ROAD AHEAD

    The Mobility and Access Crisis will not be solved without Fundamental Transformation of the human settlement pattern โ€“ and that includes black, blue, gray, purple, green and invisible infrastructure to support functional and sustainable human Regions and Communities, AND.

    Neither the Mobility and Access Crisis nor the Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis can be solved โ€“ nor will health care, education, public safety and national security stop being bottomless pits โ€“ until there is Fundamental Transformation of governance structure, AND.

    Mass OverConsumption and the exhaustion of finite resources will not stop โ€“ a sustainable trajectory for human civilization will not be achieved โ€“ without a change in the economic system, AND

    None of these Fundamental Transformations can be achieved without CITIZEN MEDIA.

    In this context, recall THE BOTTOM LINE from Chapter One of the most recent version of CITIZEN MEDIA. (In light of the events in Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Yemen note especially the roll of global, instantaneous communications.)

    Citizens cannot make well informed decisions on their own best interest on ANY topic until they have a reliable source of reliable information.

    That is true for Fundamental Transformation of human settlement patters,

    That is true for Fundamental Transformation of governance structure (the topic Observer was addressing)

    That is true for Fundamental Transformation of the economic system.

    Without a reliable source of sound information democracy and market economies are not possible. This reality must be seen in the global context:

    On a small planet with Global economic, social and physical interconnections, GROSS INEQUITY at the Community-, SubRegional-, Regional-, MegaRegional- and continental-scales OR between ethnic and religious groups
    is NOT sustainable.

    All citizens must have the opportunity to prosper based on effort, ability and acceptance of responsibility for their actions โ€“ individual and collective. Success cannot be based on gambling, happenstance and inheritance or on inequitable distribution of resources and opportunity at ANY scale.

    Avoiding Collapse of civilization as-it-has-evolved and the survival for Homo sapiens comes down to understanding that:

    In a โ€˜flatโ€™ world with:

    โ— wide-spread literacy,

    โ— Global, instant communications / information dissemination, and

    โ— Wide distribution of weapons of mass destruction / massive stockpiles of weapons of conventional destruction / ubiquitous access to weapons of inter-personal destruction:

    There is no alternative but to make Fundamental Transformations of governance structure. The conflict started in Tunisia and now spreading to Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Yemen and beyond makes this crystal clear. These conflicts are based on economic dysfunction in societies with literacy, and instantaneous global communications.

    Transformations in governance structure can facilitate evolution of Fundamental Transformation of humans settlement patterns, governance structures and of economic systems. These three Transformations are imperative if citizens are to achieve a sustainable trajectory for their civilization.

    The question remains:

    Will the genetic proclivities toward competition, acquisition, consumption and xenophobia that got Homo sapiens to this point in their evolution prevent the emergence of an Urban society with a sustainable trajectory?

    Will human beliefs and superstitions that have become hardwired into society thwart evolution of a sustainable advanced-technology based civilization, or perhaps a stable New Bronze Age or will they result in the end of human society as has evolved over the past 13,000 years?

    Will those at the top of the economic food chain realize they must close the Wealth Gap to survive?

    The answers will depend on whether citizens can evolve Citizen Media to provide the information they need to make intelligent decisions in the voting booth and in the marketplace.

    AARRRGH!

    Ok, now back to CITIZEN MEDIA

    EMR


  • Big Questions for Mr. “Aw Shucks”

    It’s no surprise that George Allen wants his Senate seat back. The question for him is whether he understands how much the political landscape has changed in Virginia since his disastrous reelection run in 2006.

    Republican insiders say that Allen is a much-chastened, humbler politician — a far cry from the smug, cowboy-boot-wearing hombre whose “macaca” insult aimed at a man of Indian descent torpedoed his 2006 campaign.

    What we’re now getting is a remade Allen who claims to be an “outsider” in Washington politics who decries the free-spending ways of Congress during most of the last decade. Problem is, he was right there from 2001 to 2006 cheerleading George W. Bush through his budget-busting tax cuts for the well-to-do, minimizing banking rules that helped spur the financial meltdown, and voting for wars in Iraq and Afghanistan that still haven’t been paid for.

    Allen has already been targeted for his “Mr. Washington Insider” role by such upstarts in the Virginia Republican Party as Jamie Radtke, who briefly worked for Allen and then became a highly-successful leader of the Virginia Tea Party movement. To blunt Allen, all she really has to do is ask him to please explain his voting record while in the Senate.

    Allen may also be banking on the “aw-shucks” Southern manner and family legacy (his father was a Washington Redskins coach) that went down well when he was Virginia’s governor from 1994 to 1998. He comes on like a happy, oversize puppy. But his run against Jim Webb in 2006, however, revealed that he really spent his childhood in Southern California and provoked some prickliness on his part at the revelation of Jewish roots on his mother’s side, as if that matters in today’s Virginia.

    Another problem for Allen is that he’s plunging into some different and hard times. Virginia was on a roll when he was governor. Back in the 1990s, Northern Virginia was becoming a high-technology magnet for Internet firms such as America Online and for a raft of telecommunications firms banking on fiber optics. The good times made it easy for him to pursue his agenda of cutting welfare for the poor and parole.

    When he was senator, he watched the state snarf up billions in post 9/11 defense dollars, especially in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads. Easy money linked to lax federal regulation spurred construction of overpriced and oversized homes in outer suburbs such as Loudoun and Prince William counties.

    One couldn’t ask for a more different environment these days. The defense milk cow is about to be slaughtered. Housing starts remain anemic. Jobs can’t be found. Deficits have soared.

    And what Allen has been doing while out of office can’t be called truly great preparation for a new run for the Senate. As folks like Radtke were busy in the field building grass-roots Tea Parties, Allen was working in a sinecure-type job as a highly paid energy lobbyist.

    Peter Galuszka

  • Uh, oh: Virginia Falling in Technology Index

    First Virginia fell to second place in the Forbes “Best States for Business” ranking. I was so depressed that I couldn’t blog about it. Now, we’ve fallen from 6th to 8th place in the Milken Institute’s 2010 State Technology and Science Index. I guess I can’t ignore our declining status any longer.

    Here is the Virginia summary:

    Virginia remained in the top 10, but fell from sixth to eighth. Virginia registered its best performances in technology concentration and dynamism (fourth), and technology and science workforce (sixth). Much of this strength stems from the Eastern Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C., which have benefitted from their proximity to the federal government, a cluster of data-processing firms, and defense and aerospace contractors. Virginiaโ€™s overall slippage was attributable partly to a decline in human capital investment from eighth in the 2008 index to 15th this year. Virginiaโ€™s indigenous innovation ecosystem that spawns new firms is less extensive than those of Massachusetts and California. But Governor Bob McDonnell has signed bills in support of his โ€œjobs and opportunity agendaโ€ that attempt to address this gap. The legislation will exempt capital gains taxes on investments in start-up tech or biotech firms.

    You can find the detailed numbers for the Old Dominion here.


  • Managed Care Bucks Line Cantor’s Pocket

    Now that Prince Eric has been elevated to his new position of House Majority Leader, Cantor’s made good on his pledge to lead a repeal vote against Obamacare in the House, now controlled by Republicans.

    So, it should come as no tremendous surprise that Cantor is being especially well-funded by the managed care industry, which doesn’t want its sweet deal of dominating entire states, cherry-picking healthy policy applicants from the in-need by denying scores of millions coverage for “pre-existing conditions” and not having to bother with the poor who can’t pay for regular insurance but don’t qualify for Medicaid.

    According to today’s Washington Post, major health care firms and their employees gave $2 million in the past two years to the election campaigns of Cantor and the new Republican Speaker of the House John A. Boehner.

    The Post says that Cantor received at least $5.6 million from corporate donors, including $2.4 million from firms and employees in the fionance, insurance and real estate industries. Some of Cantor’s biggest Virginia donors are the big Richmond lobbying firm of McGuire Woods and Dominion followed by Altria and others.

    The money puts Cantor well above his House colleagues in terms of business money received. Midterm elections in 2010 showed a big increase in corporate finding.

    Little wonder that “Young Gun” Cantor continues to do the bidding of big business, such as trying to shoot down regulations and taxes on corporations. Of course, Cantor at times does reverse on himself. I interviewed him in 2009 and he told me that “we’ve got to get the federal government out of the capital markets.” When I reminded Cantor that he voted for George W. Bush’s TARP bank bailout he was silent for about 20 seconds.

    The Main Street types in Virginia’s GOP love Cantor. Their “Pravda”, the Richmond Times-Dispatch regularly features Cantor in a positive light on its front page. Occasionally their “Politifacts” fact checker raps his knuckles for being a little too slick with facts, but it’s quite a cushy deal for the hometown boy from Henrico County and his wife who’s on the board of Media General, owner of the Richmond paper (no matter how many times the TD editors claim t’ain’t so).

    One wonders if Prince Eric is still selling “Coffee with Cantor” morning meetings at the Capitol Hill Starbucks for a couple grand or so a latte.

    If you want to see big bucks from big business at work, look no further.

    Peter Galuszka

  • Want to Cut Costs? Start by Slashing Subsidies for Sorry-Ass College Students

    Not only is the cost of a college education may be escalating without let-up, it’s pretty clear that students are not getting any more for their money. A new book, co-written by University of Virginia sociology professor Josipa Roksa, paints an alarming picture of what’s going on in higher education today.

    In research for the book, “Academically Adrift: Limited Learning on College Campuses,” Roksa and New York University sociologist Richard Arun tracked more than 2,000 students between fall 2005 and spring 2009 at 24 different colleges and universities. The colleges ranged from highly selective to less selective. Sums up a McClatchy newspaper acccount:

    Forty-five percent of students made no significant improvement in their critical thinking, reasoning or writing skills during the first two years of college, according to the study. After four years, 36 percent showed no significant gains in these so-called “higher order” thinking skills.

    Combining the hours spent studying and in class, students devoted less than a fifth of their time each week to academic pursuits. By contrast, students spent 51 percent of their time โ€” or 85 hours a week โ€” socializing or in extracurricular activities.

    This is a scandal of massive proportions. American universities beg non-stop for mo’ money — money from the taxpayers, money from alumni, money from students and their parents. As documented on this blog, their costs have gone through the roof — much of it for bloated administrative costs. While the higher ed lobby depicts itself on the side of the angels, it is totally unaccountable. Not only that, but it is failing in its core mission — educating students.

    Given the deplorable state of affairs documented in “Academically Adrift,” parent shelling out hard-earned money for tuition is a fool not to ask the tough questions. Are their children actually getting an education, or are parents blowing $80,000 to $200,000 for their hedonist offspring to party for four (or five) years?

    Taxpayers should demand answers as well. How many kids are graduating on time? If subsidized tuitions are justified on the basis of social benefits — we all benefit when the general education level rises — we need to ask, how much are students really benefiting? Is it possible that the gains to society stem mainly from educating the two-thirds of the students who work hard and manage to learn something? Could we be wasting our money on the other third?

    With our budgetary backs to the wall, we especially need to ask the tough questions here in Virginia. Yesterday, Gov. Bob McDonnell rolled out the “Preparing for the Top Jobs of the 21st Century” higher education initiative. The plan is to spend millions of dollars, in the governor’s words, “[to] enable our institutions to meet the goal of issuing an additional 100,000 degrees over the next 15 years, making Virginia one of the most highly educated states in the nation.”

    One hundred thousand more degrees? That’s nearly 7,000 extra degrees a year.

    Before I launch into McDonnell’s logic, let me say in his defense that the initiative does contain a number of measures to ensure that state universities deliver their educational services more efficiently, including “the use of greater technology, year round facilities usage and innovative and economical degree paths.” It’s not a total give-away. But we ought to be pushing state colleges to continually improve their productivity in any case. Relentless efforts to drive down costs should be a given, not used to help sell more spending.

    What I question is the assumption that we need to add another 100,000 degrees over the next 15 years. Where did that number come from? Did the higher ed lobby cook it up? On the assumption that the vast majority of students who could benefit from higher ed are getting a college degree anyway, what will these additional 100,000 students gain from the college experience? I’m willing to concede that Virginia institutions deliver more bang for the buck than most other universities, but that’s not enough for me. Why should Virginia taxpayers be subsidizing students who skip half their classes and get drunk five nights a week at the frat house? We don’t have unlimited dollars to spend on kids whose most vivid memories of college are getting wasted and puking on the floor. We need to bring costs under control. And demanding more from the student population — study or leave — sounds like a good place to start!

    Before the General Assembly passes this bill, legislators should invite Ms. Roksa to testify about what she found. I would be surprised if she draws the same public policy conclusions that I do, but even so, I think lawmakers would get an earful.


  • The Vice Tightens

    I hope someone in the McDonnell administration reads the Wall Street Journal. I’m getting queasier and queasier about the idea of Virginia taking on more debt. I reproduce this blog post from the Boomergeddon blog.

    Financial markets have tightened their grip on sovereign debt โ€” especially U.S. municipal debt โ€” in the past two months. The yield on 30-year, AAA-rated general obligation bonds has soared from about 3.75% to 5.0% since late 2010 โ€” the highest interest rates since the darkest days of the Global Financial Crisis.

    The squeeze has been caused largely by the anticipated expiration of some $109 billion worth of letters of credit and similar guarantees that municipalities used as short-term financing to get them through the depths of the financial crisis. โ€œMunicipalities may be hard-pressed to come up with this money or refinance this debt,โ€ the Wall Street Journal quoted Eric Friedland, a municipal analyst at Fitch Ratings, as saying.

    Bond analysts say that the crunch could lead to some municipalities defaulting on their debt, with spillover effects to banks that backed the bonds with letters of credit. โ€œThis is one area of risk the market hasnโ€™t focused on,โ€ said Frederick Cannon, a banking analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods.

    The Journal highlighted a bond auction that proved disappointing to the New Jersey Economic Development Authority. The government agency fought to refinance a short-term, variable interest loan but had to reduce its planned $1.8 billion offering to $1.1 billion because investors were demanding higher rates. In another sign that investors are shying away from the municipal market, mutual fund giant Vanguard dropped plans to roll out three new municipal bond funds, citing market turmoil.

    As investors take a closer look at state/local finances, the more disconcerted they get. Iโ€™ve prominently highlighted Meredith Whitneyโ€™s analysis in this blog (see โ€œThe Next Big Meltdown: Failed Statesโ€œ), in which she predicted a wave of municipal bankruptcies.

    Now, it appears, New Jerseyโ€™s unfunded pension liabilities are coming under closer scrutiny. Officially, the stateโ€™s pension liabilities amount to $54 billion, writes James Freeman in an op-ed into todayโ€™s Journal. But the state optimistically assumes an 8.5% return annual return on investment. Independent estimates suggest the shortfall could be as high as $175 billion โ€” and that doesnโ€™t include liabilities for retiree health benefits, which could total another $67 billion. If investors start turning over the rocks of Illinois and California obligations, who knows what kind of bugs will come crawling out? Both states have been relying upon accounting gimmicks for so long, there could be all manner of unpleasant surprises.

    If yields on AAA-rated debt have climbed to 5.0%, states with lousy credit ratings will find the cost of capital to be even more expensive. And itโ€™s the states with poor credit ratings that tend to be the most dependent upon the long-term debt to begin with. Fortunately, states are restricted in their ability to fund ongoing operations through debt, so the higher interest rates will not punish state or municipal governments as much as they would hammer federal finances.

    But the market is speaking, and investors clearly donโ€™t like what they see. If enough municipal bankruptcies occur, negative sentiment could easily spread to to government obligations of all kind, including federal Treasury securities. Then the state/local problem becomes a federal problem.

    With its AAA credit rating, Virginia has less to lose from higher interest rates on munis than other states. But Gov. McDonnell’s plan to borrow another $3 billion for transportation funding would push the state to the outer bounds of prudence. And all for what? We haven’t even seen a list of the transportation projects yet! In all probability, the money would go to projects approved by the Commonwealth Transportation Board, reflecting the priorities of the 2000s decade. But things are very different now, as I’ll explain in a future post about the prospects for continued oil price hikes. We need a new set of priorities. Let’s not invest $3 billion in projects of dubious value.


  • Will the Real Bob McDonnell Please Stand Up?

    As the Virginia General Assembly opens, Gov. Robert F. McDonnell is once again fiddling with any number of things.

    These include yet another proposal to privatize ABC stores, a new budget based on a phony surplus and an ambitious plan to borrow heavily to build roads despite his posturing as a fiscal conservative.

    It’s a strange brew of initiatives, considering how he’s also pushing, with key Republican legislators, a so-called “Smaller Budget, Stronger Economy” strategy that bashes unions (as if they were responsible for the recent recession) and supposedly would create jobs.

    Where to start?

    McDonnell’s latest twist on his plan to sell off state-owned ABC stores would borrow ideas from other states, such as Ohio, that have privately-run retail stores but keep liquor wholesaling in the hands of the state. McDonnell spent $76,900 for the consulting firm PFM Group to come up with this new strategy after previous ones failed, notably since ABC stores would have generated $47 million a year less than they do now.

    McDonnell claims that this latest plan would generate $200 million to $400 million for transportation. But it faces intense Democratic opposition, and one wonders why McDonnell didn’t try this latest wrinkle — keeping control of liquor wholesaling — first. One also wonders why he keeps after a scheme that would be marginally beneficial at best when there are far bigger problems out there.

    Among those bigger problems is his budget, which he claims shows a $403 million budget surplus. Among pet projects are road building and more spending on other transportation, education and jobs creation.

    But does he really have the money? He got his surplus by withholding payments to the state’s retirement system. That’s not really budget cutting, and the state is going to have to make those payments sooner or later.

    McDonnell did achieve some cuts that supposedly contributed to the surplus by axing state payments for K-12 education and Medicaid — in other words — doing so on the backs of children and the poor. And as for boosting higher education, he’s proposing to cut 6 percent from the budget for the State Council of Higher Education for Virginia (SCHEV), which says it will fight McDonnell’s plan.

    Lastly, McDonnell plans to borrow $3 billion over the next three years to fund transportation projects. I, for one, support such investments, believing they pay the state back over time in better economic growth. This ambitious plan, however, flies directly in the face of McDonnell’s political philosophy as a so-called fiscal conservative who is loath to spend.

    And there are some other very simple ways to boost transportation funding. The obvious is raising the gasoline tax, since Virginia charges among the lowest tax rates in the country. Another idea floated by the Old Dominion Highway Contractors Association is to charge a “pump toll,” which would be a $1 tax every time someone fills up with gas. The money would go back to the localities and regions where it was generated and comes with the political advantage of seeming more like a “toll” than a “tax,” which conservatives tend to go for.

    As McDonnell enters his second year in office, one can’t shake the sense that he’s making things up as he goes along. He didn’t think through his original ABC plans and didn’t even bother consulting with lobbyists, which may seem to be a strange complaint but not when you consider how things really work in politics.

    It appears to me he’ll do whatever he needs to get things like a mention in Time magazine that’s he’s a new-style GOP governor who can produce a budget surplus in awful financial times. But he did so through smoke and mirrors and now is proposing to spend money he really doesn’t have.

    Lastly, he wants a big borrowing campaign for transportation. Fine with me, but it does make him seem like the very politicians he campaigned against.

    Will the real Bob McDonnell please stand up?

    Peter Galuszka