
by Paul Goldman
History says Democratic voters do not believe repeal of the right-to- law is a major issue. Abigail Spanberger, the Democratic candidate for governor, should have simply said no to repeal and pivoted to far more important issues to working families. The right-to-work law is increasingly irrelevant in today’s AI revolution, which is threatening the jobs of labor and management.
The two-party system in Virginia began in 1977. In the ensuing years, one consistent, predictive fact stands out: The gubernatorial candidate for the party of the sitting president has never received 50% of the vote. Ever. The gubernatorial candidate of the sitting presidentโs party has lost every election except in 2013 due in good measure to the contest featuring a three-way. The only time the winner got less than 50%.
In 2017, Republican Donald Trump occupied the oval office. Democratic gubernatorial candidate Ralph Northam received nearly 54% of the vote. Therein winning by the biggest Democratic margin in 32 years. President Trump again sits in the oval office. He has lost Virginia three straight times by sizable margins. He has a net negative -20% approval rating in the public opinion polls.
In my view, Spanberger canโt lose unless she runs the worst gubernatorial campaign in the modern era. Historical statistical analysis says she should win by between 6 to 10 percentage points, if not more. In doing so she will sweep in the Democratic ticket unless one of her running mates has a fatal flaw.
When queried by a television reporter, Spanberger should have simply said I will not support repeal of the right to work law. Period. End of story.
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