
By Steve Haner,
In April, economic prognosticators at the University of Virginia published a prediction that Virginia would lose 32,000 jobs during 2025.ย The Al Gore-like jeremiad was promptly adopted by Virginia Democrats who used it in speeches and advertising to claim Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin and his chosen successor, Winsome Earle-Sears, were mismanaging the economy.
As the negative ad blitz was reaching its peak near Labor Day, the same deep thinkers at the same once-trusted Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service issued a follow up that quietly adjusted that prediction downward, this time asserting the stateโs end of year employment numbers would reflect an 11,700 decrease from the end of 2024.ย The Democrats kept using the more worrisome but discredited larger number.
A new report just popped up and now the prediction is that Virginia will lose just 1,800 jobs this calendar year.ย The trendline alone makes that also shaky. To try to keep you from noticing, the authors introduced and overused the word โstagnationโ to describe the situation Virginia faces as all states absorb the headwinds from the new tariff regime and federal spending reductions. The new headline is their claim the stateโs unemployment level will reach 4.8% next year, a jump from the 4.6% they predicted in the August report.
That gave the Democrat Abigail Spanbergerโs campaign and the Democratic mudslingers at Blue Virginia enough ammunition to issue another condemnation of Youngkinโs economic leadership, with plenty of side references to President Trumpโs tariff regime and reductions in the federal workforce.ย But given that the initial predicted job losses were nothing but an in-kind campaign contribution masquerading as research, this unemployment projection should also be taken with skepticism.
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