by Paul Goldman
The legal experts who say yesterday’s decision on Texas redistricting allows Virginia to do mid-decade redistricting are wrong. I warned months ago the Supremes would okay Texas but not Virginia. Those experts who think otherwise need to read prior election law cases.
There is a long history of the High Court rejecting major electoral changes enacted after the campaign season is in full swing. Starting on January 1, the 2026 Virginia congressional campaign officially begins under the existing district boundaries. By my calculations, the earliest the proposed new districts can become law would be around May 1.
Thus, the campaign will have been ongoing for 4 months in the old districts. The districts put in place by a non-partisan process. The districts voters have become accustomed to.
Let’s assume the required 3-Judge Court approves the new Spanberger districts on June 1. The Republicans will appeal directly to the United States Supreme Court as the law allows in redistricting cases. We can assume the Supreme Court will stay the lower court order. This means the old districts will still be in effect.
Let’s further assume the Supreme Court rules takes up the case and on July 1. Election day is barely 5 months away. In this five-month period, the parties must conduct their nomination processes, independent candidates must be allowed to collect signatures to file to be on the ballot, and a myriad of other mandatory actions must be taken as required to ensure fair elections and informed voters.
Most importantly, all this needs to be done prior to early voting starting in late September.
Meaning: the Supreme Court would have to approve new districts less than three months before the voting actually starts.
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