• Will Northam’s COVID Crackdown on Hampton Roads Work?

    Number of COVID-19 cases By Date of Symptom Onset: Hampton Roads. Graph credit: Virginia Department of Health

    by James A. Bacon

    Yesterday Governor Ralph Northam blamed the recent rise in confirmed COVID-19 cases in Virginia upon noncompliance with his May face-covering order. In a Tuesday news briefing, he announced that the state will step up enforcement of the order.

    Northam singled out the spread of the virus in Hampton Roads for special attention. “There is clearly substantial community spread,” he said, as reported by The Virginia Mercury. “A lot of that increase is driven by people socializing without wearing masks — especially young people. Virginia cases in the 25- to 29-year-old demographic have risen by 205% compared to early June.

    The Virginia Department of Health is deploying 100 people to ramp up enforcement by, among other means, conducting unannounced inspections at businesses. “This will happen across the state, but will be particularly focused in the Hampton Roads area,” Northam said. “If you own a restaurant and a business and youโ€™re not following the regulations, your license will be on the line.โ€

    As we like to do at Bacon’s Rebellion, let’s take a look at the data. (more…)


  • Advancing the Opportunity Agenda: Make 401(k)s More Portable

    Robert L. Johnson on CNBC

    by James A. Bacon

    Robert L. Johnson, founder of the Black Entertainment Network and America’s first black billionaire, touted a proposal on CNBC this morning to help African-Americans — and, for that matter, all Americans — build wealth through their 401(k) plans. His proposal would make it easier for Americans to carry their employer-based retirement plans from one employer to another.

    Sixty-three percent of African-Americans cash out their 401(k) plans when they move from job to job, said Johnson. With “auto-portability,” workers would not have to take any action for their 401(ks) to follow them. Often, owners of small accounts are given the option of cashing out. When they do, they pay various taxes and withdrawal penalties. People still would have the freedom to cash out if they really needed the money, but the administrative change would nudge them into keeping their funds intact and, thereby, boosting their savings.

    African-Americans are more likely than other Americans to have small accounts that would be ported from one employer to the next. Over time, Johnson claims, his proposal would put approximately $191 billion dollars into the retirement savings of black Americans (and many billion into the savings of other Americans).

    Here’s what I like about this proposal — it’s win-win. Auto-portability is a tool for helping African-Americans increase their net worth, but it’s not a carve-out or set-aside that creates a privileged racial status. Auto-portability would help all Americans with small 401(k) plans but African-Americans would benefit the most. (more…)


  • More Big, Honking Data Centers Coming to Virginia

    Honk!

    The COVID-19 epidemic may be slowing the national economy, but it is accelerating the trend toward a digitized and virtual economy. That requires more data centers, and Virginia is still a key locus of the data-center universe.

    Amazon Web Services is proposing to build 1.75 million-square-feet of data center space in Loudoun County, reports the Loudoun Times. Blue Ridge Group LLC, which is acting on behalf of Amazon, is seeking approval to rezone 100-acre parcel, which is located just south of Washington Dulles International Airport.

    Meanwhile, Delaware-based T-Rex Ventures LLC wants to build a $60 million data center at the York River Commerce Park. T-Rex has won a $1.5 million grant from the local Economic Development Authority and a $380,000 credit from Dominion Energy to the county, which can be used for the new data center, reports WYDaily.

    — JAB


  • Reminder: COVID-19 “Cases” Do Not Equal “Deaths”

    Virginia new confirmed cases of the COVID-19 virus. Source: Virginia Department of Health

    by James A. Bacon

    Yesterday, Kerry Dougherty observed that while COVID-19 confirmed cases have increased in recent days, deaths from the virus have not. For those of you who absorb data visually, I thought I’d supplement her post by reproducing some charts from the Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 dashboard.

    The chart above shows the number of confirmed and probable COVID-19 cases, along with the seven-day moving average (which smooths out daily fluctuations). Clearly, after a month of declines, the trend-line turned back up in mid-June. The big question: Does the increase in confirmed cases reflect the increased incidence of testing or an increase in the incidence of the disease in the general population? (more…)


  • No More Shutdowns Without Detailed Data

    by Kerry Dougherty

    Here we go.ย Again.

    California Gov. Gavin Newsom shut down much of his stateโ€™s economy yesterday. He closed indoor dining, churches, (theyโ€™re always the first to go), hair salons, barbershops, wineries, fitness centers, etc.

    Iโ€™m sure itโ€™s just coincidental that this happened shortly before the Golden Stateโ€™s numbers began to climb last month:

    Question is, can Gov. Ralph Northam be far behind?

    (more…)


  • The Shocking Number of Hispanic COVID-19 Deaths for Ages 35 to 64

    by Carol J. Bova

    The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) death certificate reports are the one reliable indicator of the impact of Covid-19 on the various population groups in Virginia. The CDC racial/ethnic breakdown from 2/1/20 to 7/4/20 of all deaths from COVID-19 alone, together with COVID-19 and pneumonia, shows Virginia Hispanics accounted for 12.6% of all COVID-19 deaths. That does not appear to be far out of line with a 10% Hispanic population in the Commonwealth in 2018, especially when allowing for an unknown number of undocumented Hispanic persons plus Hispanic population increases since then.

    What is shockingly out of line is the CDC Virginia death certificate numbers show 42.7% of Hispanic COVID-19 deaths within the 35- to 64-year-old age bracket, as shown in the chart above.

    Why has this happened? Are comorbidities like diabetes, auto-immune conditions or obesity responsible? (more…)


  • VCU Study Finds 30,000 “Spillover” Deaths from COVID-19 Epidemic

    by James A. Bacon

    In March and April this year, the COVID-19 epidemic resulted in approximately 87,000 more deaths in the United States than the average for those months, concludes a new study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association. About 65% were directly attributable to the virus. The other 35% was due to spillover effects from the epidemic.

    Some “excess” deaths may reflect under-reporting of COVID-19 cases, and some might involve patients who died from related complications, such as heart disease, that were listed as the cause of death rather than COVID-19, says lead author Steven Woolf, director emeritus of Virginia Commonwealth University’s Center on Society and Health, based on a study by VCU and Yale University researchers.

    “A third possibility, the one weโ€™re quite concerned about, is indirect mortality โ€” deaths caused by the response to the pandemic,โ€ Woolf said. โ€œPeople who never had the virus may have died from other causes because of the spillover effects of the pandemic, such as delayed medical care, economic hardship or emotional distress.โ€ (more…)


  • Snowflake Nation: Law Students

    Bar exam. Photo credit: New York Times

    by James A. Bacon

    Members of a “collective” of recent law school graduates and professors have signed a petition urging the Supreme Court of Virginia and Virginia State Bar to admit them to the bar without the necessity of taking the bar exam in Roanoke this year. Why? Because they’re scared of the COVID-19 virus.

    “It is unsafe and inequitable to administer an in-person Bar exam in July 2020 given the risks of increasing the spread of COVID-19 through travel and large in-person gatherings,” says the petition. “During the Virginia Bar Exam, hundreds of examinees are gathered together indoors over the course of two days.”

    Precautions planned by the Virginia Board of Bar Examiners are not adequate, say the petitioners, who numbered 1,157 this morning. The petition offered no specifics on how the administration of the exams would put them at risk other than the fact that they would be held indoors and exam takers would be concentrated in the same hotels. Compelling them to take the exam would “increase the already existing harm to examinees’ finances, families, mental and physical health”

    Ah, the old mental health ploy. A sure sign that we’re dealing with snowflakes with exquisite sensitivities.

    Granting “diploma privilege,” as the petitions are asking for, would allow all law school graduates to practice law without passing the bar exam. In recent years 25% to 30% of July test takers have failed to pass. (more…)


  • And Now, a Word on Law Enforcement Reform From… Law Enforcement

    Howard Hall

    by James A. Bacon

    Democrats have gotten plenty of attention for their ideas on how to reform Virginia’s system of law enforcement and criminal justice in the wake of the George Floyd killing and statue-toppling movement. But this article in the Roanoke Times is the first I’ve seen that lays out the thinking of… someone in law enforcement.

    Days after the Floyd killing in Minneapolis, Governor Ralph Northam stated publicly that black people have been killed by police because “in America, the color of their skin means that they are treated differently.”

    Roanoke County Police Chief Howard Hall felt the Governor was painting police officers as racist. When he had the chance at a gathering of the Virginia Association of Chiefs of Police, he asked Northam twice, “Who in Virginia would want to be a police officer right now?” In Hall’s telling of the story, Northam remained silent.

    Hall is critical of many of the proposals advanced by Democratic lawmakers, which he describes as “platitudes that sound nice about social justice and racial equity.” (more…)


  • What Passes for Logic These Days….

    by James A. Bacon

    Liberty University President Jerry Falwell Jr. said yesterday he supports changing the name of the city of Lynchburg because of its embarrassing association with the word “lynch.” He said the perceived racist connotations were an “embarrassment to Liberty University ever since we started,” reports Virginia Business magazine.

    Falwell is not alone. Two weeks ago, Lynchburg resident Daisy Howard posted a petition on Change.org calling for a name change. The petition, addressed to Lynchburg City Council, has gathered more than 5,300 signatures. “I cringe having to say the name Lynchburg because ‘lynch’ is in the name,” said Howard in the petition. “The name of a city should not have such violent, racist and horrifying connotations.”

    How insane is this?

    Lynchburg was named after its Quaker John Lynch, who freed his slaves during his lifetime and supported the antislavery movement. One would think city residents would be proud to be associated with a guy like that. (more…)


  • Virginia COVID Cases Up, Deaths Down

    by Kerry Dougherty

    Welcome to Day 121 of 15 Days to Slow the Spread.

    Seems like just yesterday that we watched, aghast, as Italyโ€™s hospitals collapsed under the weight of those sick and dying from COVID-19. It was late February. If we didnโ€™t act we faced the same fate, experts said.

    And so, in mid-March, 15 days to slow the spread was born.

    A move that was never intended to stop the spread of the coronavirus, but to slow it so that hospitals could prepare to treat the sick.

    I know Iโ€™ve written this before, but letโ€™s say it again, for those eating paste in the back of the class: There is no stopping a novel virus. None of us had immunity to Covid-19 prior to January. At this point itโ€™s not a matter of IF weโ€™re going to contract the coronavirus. Itโ€™s a matter of when.

    It quickly became evident that those most at risk of critical illness or death were the elderly and those with underlying conditions such as diabetes, obesity, COPD and compromised immune systems.

    Once the 15 days were over, though, governors moved the goalposts. They closed schools, ordered businesses to shutter and told people to stay home.


  • Inequity Accounting for Hispanic COVID-19 Cases

    by Carol J. Bova

    Last week Del. Jennifer Carroll Foy, D-Prince William, wrote a letter to Governor Ralph Northam decrying the high rate of COVID-19 infection in Virginia’s Hispanic population. She blamed “longstanding and systemic factors, such as disparate access to information, testing, and treatment.” Jim Bacon responded that Virginia Department of Health (VDH) data did not support Foy’s assertion. But even Bacon took the VDH numbers as an accurate reflection of reality. In truth, VDH “confirmed cases” numbers, which suggest that Hispanics account for 43% of all COVID-19 cases in which race/ethnicity have been identified, are not reliable.

    Originally, VDH number crunchers broke down confirmed cases as Black, White, Other, and Unknown. In mid-June they created Latino as a new demographic category, describing it as โ€œIndividuals of any race who identify as ‘Hispanic or Latino.’โ€ To create the Latino category, VDH moved 11.3 percentage points from the White cases and 23.6 percentage points from Other and Unknown Race cases. The result: Hispanics accounted for 33.9% of all cases.

    Ignoring 16,500 cases in the Unknown category increases the apparent proportion of Black and Latino cases and provides talking points for Del. Foy and the Governor that Latinos have 43% of all cases whose ethnicity was identified.

    (more…)


  • Virginia Hospitals Rank High Nationally (They Are Not the Ones You Would Assume!)

    Sentara Halifax Regional Hospital, South Boston

    By Dick Hall-Sizemore

    In a new national ranking of hospitals, two Virginia hospitals are included in the Top 20 Hospitals in the country. Furthermore, the Commonwealthโ€™s two major teaching hospitals are in the list of the 50 best teaching hospitals. Finally, one Virginia hospital was one of the 100 best safety net hospitals.

    The two Virginia hospitals in the top 20 (which included teaching hospitals) probably would come as a surprise to most readers. They are Norton Community Hospital in Wise County (ranked 11) and Sentara Halifax Regional Hospital in South Boston (ranked 14). In the teaching hospital category, UVa Medical Center was ranked 18 and Medical College of Virginia Hospitals was ranked 39. The Virginia hospital recognized as being among the top safety net hospitals in the country was the Lonesome Pine Hospital in Big Stone Gap (ranked 29). (more…)


  • Mayor Stoney Panders to the Mob, Lawsuit Says

    by James A. Bacon

    Two elderly residents of Monument Avenue have filed a lawsuit charging that Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney pandered to mob rule by ignoring proper legal procedures to remove Civil War statues and by failing to arrest protesters who assaulted homeowners living near the Lee statue and vandalized their houses.

    Stoney justified the taking down of several statues by citing the need to preserve public safety, and he argued that the existence of a local emergency due to the COVID-19 virus gave him the authority to act. “That justification was pretextual and arbitrary,” stated the lawsuit, which was filed yesterday. “Mayor Stoney had encouraged protests and participated in protests during the weeks before the removal of the monuments at issue involving hundreds of people who were not required to observe distancing protocols or wear masks or face coverings.”

    The lawsuit, filed by attorney Patrick M. McSweeney, named as plaintiffs two Monument Avenue residents: 93-year-old E. Morgan Massey and 96-year-old Helen Marie Taylor. Massey is remembered as former CEO of the now-defunct A.T. Massey Coal Co. Ms. Taylor is best known for her activism decades ago in the cause of Monument Avenue conservation.ย 

    In a reference to Ms. Taylor, the lawsuit states that police officers responded to a call for assistance “after demonstrators assaulted members of the household, destroyed gates, [and] threw objects at a bedroom window of the 96-year-old owner.” Refusing to leave their vehicles, police officers stated “they were instructed not to go where they perceived a threat to their safety.” Not mentioned explicitly in the lawsuit, protesters also vandalized Massey’s house by spray-painting graffiti on his front door. (more…)


  • What It Is, Is Not Journalism

    Photo credit: Bob Brown, Richmond Times-Dispatch

    By Dick Hall-Sizemore

    I never thought that I would agree with Jim Bacon on the slant of the RTDโ€™s news coverage, but an article on evictions today just really irritated me.

    It was the usual article about activists demonstrating at the Richmond courthouse and protesting evictions. (At least the demonstration on Thursday was peaceful; no smashed windows, no pepper spray, no arrests.)ย  The article was a cut and paste job, recounting the familiar history of the how many evictions are pending and how a moratorium on evictions has been lifted. It concluded with several quotes from college-age demonstrators talking about the corrupt capitalist society. (I had another flashback to the 1960s). (more…)