Bacon's Rebellion

An alternative redistricting strategy for VA Democrats

by Paul Goldman

On Friday, I showed how the recent U.S. Supreme decision on the GOP Texas redistricting put a fork in the Spanberger/Scott/Surovell mid-decade redistricting plan. The High Court made certain that Virginia and other states got the message: once the campaign season is in full swing, fundamental changes to election rules like giving final approval to new congressional districts in close proximity to the start of early voting would be rejected. The liberal Warren Court of the 1960’s actually agreed. Thus, even if Virginians approved a constitutional change in an April referendum, the timeline for getting the courts to sign off on the proposed changes to the congressional districts would be too late to implement in 2026. 

But today, I will layout a different strategy for how VA Democrats can use the Texas rationale to possibly do a redistricting the Supremes will have far more difficulty in rejecting. This alternative strategy is admittedly a long shot. But it beats a no shot. Moreover, the General Assembly should do both strategies simultaneously: continue with the Spanberger/Scott/Surovell approach while also pursuing the alternative proposed below.

BASIS OF MY THESIS IS ARTICLE II, SECTION 6 of the VA CONSTITUTION 

 It reads in pertinent part: 

“Every (congressional) district shall be drawn in accordance with the requirements of federal and state laws that address racial and ethnic fairness, including the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment to the Constitution of the United States and provisions of the Voting Rights Act of 1965, as amended, and judicial decisions interpreting such laws.”

by Paul Goldman

The legal experts who say yesterday’s decision on Texas redistricting allows Virginia to do mid-decade redistricting are wrong. I warned months ago the Supremes would okay Texas but not Virginia. Those experts who think otherwise need to read prior election law cases. 

There is a long history of the High Court rejecting major electoral changes enacted after the campaign season is in full swing. Starting on January 1, the 2026 Virginia congressional campaign officially begins under the existing district boundaries. By my calculations, the earliest the proposed new districts can become law would be around May 1.

Thus, the campaign will have been ongoing for 4 months in the old districts. The districts put in place by a non-partisan process. The districts voters have become accustomed to. 

Let’s assume the required 3-Judge Court approves the new Spanberger districts on June 1. The Republicans will appeal directly to the United States Supreme Court as the law allows in redistricting cases. We can assume the Supreme Court will stay the lower court order. This means the old districts will still be in effect.

Let’s further assume the Supreme Court rules takes up the case and on July 1. Election day is barely 5 months away. In this five-month period, the parties must conduct their nomination processes, independent candidates must be allowed to collect signatures to file to be on the ballot, and a myriad of other mandatory actions must be taken as required to ensure fair elections and informed voters.

Most importantly, all this needs to be done prior to early voting starting in late September.

Meaning: the Supreme Court would have to approve new districts less than three months before the voting actually starts.