Bacon's Rebellion

  • Want Energy Both “Green” and Reliable? Send Natural Gas and Money

    Posted on

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    Steve Haner

    By Steve Haner

    With the release of its latest 15-year plan to expand energy generation in the Commonwealth, Dominion Energy Virginia has increased the projected cost of residential electricity in 2035 to almost $216 per 1,000 kilowatt hours, a 24% increase over the same projection in its 2023 planning document. 

    If the $216 comes to pass, it will represent about $100 per megawatt hour more (up 86%) than the same residential customer was paying in 2020, just before the implementation of the Virginia Clean Economy Act.  If 1,000 kilowatt hours is the monthly average usage, the annual bill will be up about $1,200.  Many customers, of course, use much more power than that per month.   

    The comparable projection in the plan introduced last year was $174 for 1,000 kilowatt hours of juice in 2035.  The current price is about $143 for that much residential electricity.  Another projected future price in the analysis, using assumptions dictated by regulators but resisted by the utility, sets the new 2035 price at $277 and puts the 2039 price at $315 — more than three Benjamins for one modest monthly power bill.  

    This analysis also includes, for the first time, a projected future cost for Dominion’s thousands of customers in northeastern North Carolina.  With different state laws and regulators, Dominion reports North Carolinians will pay $127 for that 1,000 kWh by the end of this year and only $202 by 2035.  Somewhere in the 406-page document, the difference might be explained.  

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  • Performance Problems at TJ?

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    James A. Bacon

    by John Butcher

    The excellent Jim Bacon recently posted two discussions (here and here) of a recent decline in the ranking of TJ (aka, Fairfax County’s Thomas Jefferson School for Science and Technology). The excellent Dick Hall-Sizemore has penned a rejoinder.

    Jim points out declines from 2019 (i.e. pre-pandemic) to 2024 in math and science SOL pass rates; and the change in percentage of Asian-American students; and the decrease in TJ’s US News ranking; and changes in the Advanced pass rates of math and science SOLs. He relates those to the 2021 change in admissions standards. Dick argues that the US News ranking change is based on data that pre-dated the change in admission standards. He does not address the other changes.

    The SOL data on the VDOE Web site paint a complicated and interesting picture.

    Notes: the 2021 (“2020-2021” in the database) testing was voluntary so that year’s data probably are not reliable measures. The “Pass/Advanced” descriptor indicates a score at or above 500 on the 600 point scale; “Pass/Proficient” indicates a score above the minimum level of 400. The change in admission scoring at TJ first took effect with the 2021-2022 entering class. We would expect any effect of that change to show first in the ‘22 data, and to increase in each of the next three years.

    The Big Three for accreditation are reading, math, and science. Let’s start with reading.

    image

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  • Election Obstructionism Comes to Virgina

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    Dick Hall-Sizemore

    by Dick Hall-Sizemore

    Two Republican members of the Waynesboro Electoral Board, a majority, have asked a court to declare the use of voting machines a violation of the Virginia Constitution and of state law.

    The constitutional complaint is based on the provision in the constitution that votes shall not be counted in secret. The electoral board members assert that, because they and members of the public do not have access to the programming of the computer that enables it to determine how many votes to assign to each candidate, the counting is being done in secret. Virginia law requires electoral boards to declare which candidate got the most votes and to issue a certificate of election to that person. The plaintiffs say that they cannot do that in good conscience because they do not know whether the computer is programmed to count the votes accurately and to do so would be a violation of their oath of office. The only remedy would be a hand count. In case the court cannot hear and reach a decision before election day, the plaintiffs have asked for a temporary injunction. (These arguments are the same made earlier by the Hanover Republican party, which did not pursue them in court.)

    Aside from the suggestion of a complex conspiracy to program the voting machines to produce false results, there are two curious aspects to this situation. The first is that Donald Trump, who consistently questions the validity of elections and accuses the Democrats of plotting to steal the upcoming election from him, handily was the top vote-getter in Waynesboro in the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections.

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  • Tools of Bureaucratic Repression

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    James A. Bacon

    Image credit: Chat GBT

    by James A. Bacon

    The biggest controversy roiling the University of Virginia today swirls around accusations leveled by 128+ letter signatories against leaders of the UVA Health System and School of Medicine for using the tools of bureaucratic repression to create a culture of fear and intimidation. The accusers have yet to release any specifics to the public. But outsiders can get a glimmering of what they might be talking about by reading a petition to the U.S. Supreme Court filed in September by Kieran Bhattacharya, a medical student who ran afoul of UVA’s administrative apparatus in 2018 after daring to question the academic premises behind microaggression theory.

    It is important to note that the incidents described in the petition occurred before Craig Kent became CEO of the health system and Melina Kibbe joined as dean of the Medical School. The two key figures in the current controversy played no role in the Bhattacharya case. However, evidence surfaced by the Bhattacharya proceedings reveals the nature of the medical bureaucracy that Kent and Kibbe inherited. What they did with the system they were bequeathed is beyond the matters I discuss here.

    Multiple tools of control play prominently in the Bhattacharya court pleadings. One is the anonymous system for filing complaints. Another is a system for filing “professionalism concern cards.” Another is the existence of a tribunal exercising the powers of investigator, judge, and jury to administer complaints. Another is the ability of university officials to order mental health evaluations and commit people against their will to psychiatric hospitals. And finally, there is the ability to expel people from the university by means of No Trespass Orders (NTOs).

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  • New School Accountability System Needs New Funding Approach

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    by

    Steve Haner

    By Chris Braunlich

    Braunlich

    When the Virginia State Board of Education approved a new state accountability system, it predictably drew attacks from the usual sources.

    The new system places greater emphasis on student mastery of subject information (50-65%) over student growth (20-25%). But while growth is critical and should be recognized, under the process approved during the McAuliffe-Northam Administrations, a school could be accredited even if its students never reached the goal of actually learning the material. Youngkin’s appointees sought to correct this.

    It also brought Virginia state accreditation into alignment with long-standing federal requirements that English Learners (ELs) be included in school ratings after three semesters (previously, Virginia did so only after 11 semesters). This was deemed unfair by the Virginia education establishment. On first glance, three semesters seems unrealistic to many.

    However, as Todd Truitt, an Arlington education parent leader and active Democrat points out, civil rights groups have long supported including English Learners in school accountability systems. Truitt notes Education Trust’s observation that, by delaying their inclusion up to five and a half years, “generations of students — particularly students of color, students from low-income backgrounds, students with disabilities, and multilingual learners — have been systematically denied equitable access to … educational opportunities.” 

    By including such students earlier in Virginia’s accreditation process, as is the case in other states, the ability of school systems to hide English Learner performance is made more difficult. Perhaps that transparency is why, in the National Assessment for Educational Progress – an assessment separate from state accreditation — 30 percent of Florida Hispanic students score at the Proficient level, while only 18 percent of Virginia Hispanic students do. 

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  • Hampton Roads Military Bases Swarmed By Drones

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    James A. Bacon

    by Kerry Dougherty

    It’s not clear why we are just now learning that dozens of drones buzzed local military installations night after night for more than two weeks last December. 

    Neither is it clear why military brass just stood there, sucking their thumbs and staring at the sky, while these airborne spy machines made repeated passes through restricted air space over Langley Air Force Base, Naval Station Norfolk and Dam Neck.

    The news broke over the weekend in The Wall Street Journal in a story headlined “Mystery Drones Swarmed A U.S. Military Base For 17 Days. The Pentagon Is Stumped.”

    For several nights, military personnel had reported a mysterious breach of restricted airspace over a stretch of land that has one of the largest concentrations of national-security facilities in the U.S. The show usually starts 45 minutes to an hour after sunset, another senior leader told (US Air Force General Mark) Kelly.

    The first drone arrived shortly. Kelly, a career fighter pilot, estimated it was roughly 20 feet long and flying at more than 100 miles an hour, at an altitude of roughly 3,000 to 4,000 feet. Other drones followed, one by one, sounding in the distance like a parade of lawn mowers.

    The drones headed south, across Chesapeake Bay, toward Norfolk, Va., and over an area that includes the home base for the Navy’s SEAL Team Six and Naval Station Norfolk, the world’s largest naval port.

    Alarming.

    Yet government officials scratched their heads, trying to decide if this was the work of mischievous drone enthusiasts or foreign enemies. (They eventually ruled out hobbyists.) The White House was briefed on the drones and a series of high-level meetings were held with members of the administration, the FBI, Defense Department and the Pentagon’s UFO department.

    Why didn’t the military simply shoot the drones out of the air. Continue reading.

  • More Nitwittery at UVA

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    Ben Doherty. Photo credit: The Daily Progress

    by James A. Bacon

    Ben Doherty, a librarian for the University of Virginia School of Law, was arrested in May during the break-up of the pro-Palestinian encampment, one of 26 detained after defying repeated orders to disband. The trespassing charges against him were dropped, and he suffered no administrative sanction from UVA itself. But he’s still posing as a victim.

    Doherty’s beef: the law school sent him a “letter of counseling” saying that “future conduct of this kind … will very likely result in disciplinary action up to and including termination.”

    UVA insisted to The Daily Progress that the letter was not a disciplinary action. Indeed, it detailed no consequences for anything Doherty had done, but gave him fair warning of potential consequences for what he might do in the future.

    Still, Doherty interpreted the letter as an effort to “chill” his freedom to protest. “To me, it’s a written threat of termination for participating in a protest,” he told the newspaper. “It feels pretty material to me. I think they are using the idea that it’s not a disciplinary action to get away with not following the law.”

    Doherty felt his rights so threatened that he and some 30 others marched with impunity down the Lawn last week toward Madison Hall, site of President Jim Ryan’s office, proclaiming loudly, “Pro… test is a right! That is why we have to fight!”

    (more…)

  • Jeanine’s Memes

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    James A. Bacon

    From The Bull Elephant

  • FOIA Fighter

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    by James A. Bacon

    Walter Smith at the Henrico County courts building

    It was a quiet Monday afternoon in the Henrico County General District Court, and Walter Smith thought he might have the University of Virginia on the ropes. Smith, an attorney and retired insurance industry executive, had spent much of the previous three years using the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA), trying to pry open documents lending insight into UVA decision making. He had been stymied repeatedly on various grounds, including the assertion that the records he sought were exempt presidential “working papers.” But this case was different.

    This time Smith had asked for text messages between University police chief Tim Longo to the Albemarle County Commonwealth’s Attorney Jim Hingely regarding a meeting President Jim Ryan had asked Longo to set up with the local prosecutor. The purpose: to discuss an April press release explaining why the University was withholding release of an independent report into the slaying of three football players in 2022. The local newspaper, The Daily Progress, had obtained the text messages through a FOIA request and published some of them, and Smith wanted to see the complete records. By the time he filed his request, however, he was told they no longer existed — even though, according to UVA’s records-retention policy, the University was supposed to keep text and email messages for three years.

    UVA attorney Robert M. Tyler took on the awkward task of explaining to Judge B. Craig Dunkum why the texts were deleted: Longo’s phone, set on Apple’s default setting, auto-deleted them. There were no sanctions in the state code spelling out a penalty for such an occurrence. 

    Dunkum accepted Tyler’s argument that the deletions were not deliberate, but he pronounced himself “troubled.” “If you can delete the records … somehow, that doesn’t seem right to me,” he said. “It rewards bad behavior.”

    (more…)

  • Bacon Meme of the Week

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    by

    James A. Bacon

  • Spanberger Bill Brings Looming Social Security Shortfall Closer

    Posted on

    by

    Steve Haner

    By Andrew Biggs

    Virginia Rep. Abagail Spanberger, (D)

    Over 300 members of Congress from both parties, including Virginia Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rep. Abigail Spanberger, are pushing for legislation that would grant a nearly $200 billion Social Security benefits windfall to a group that neither paid for these benefits nor truly needs them. (She advocated it in the Richmond Times-Dispatch this morning.) That legislation, called the Social Security Fairness Act, is actually anything but. As costly as this bill is, the topic is so complex that many people have little idea what is happening. Here I’ll explain the issues.

    Social Security’s benefit formula works more or less as follows. When a person goes to claim benefits, Social Security’s computers look back at the earnings the person received under jobs that were covered by Social Security. The computer adds these earnings up, and divides by 35 to produce an annual average, which is then converted to a monthly average. Those Average Indexed Monthly Earnings are then run through a progressive formula in which Social Security benefits are paid equal to 90 percent of the first xx on monthly earnings, 32 percent of earnings between x and y, and 15 percent of earnings between y and the maximum amount of that’s subject to payroll taxes.

    Because of the progressivity of the benefit formula, Americans with low average earnings receive a higher “replacement rate” than those with higher average earnings. For instance, imagine a middle-income employee who earned the national average wage each year throughout their career. At retirement, they would receive a Social Security benefit equal to about 43% of their pre-retirement earnings.

    Now imagine a much lower-income worker who earned just 25% of the national average wage throughout their career. They would receive a Social Security benefit equal to about 80% of their pre-retirement earnings. In other words, the lowest earners receive about twice as much benefit per dollar contributed as does a middle-income worker.

    There’s nothing wrong with that. It’s how Social Security was designed.

    (more…)

  • Self-Absorption Is a Right! That Is Why We Need to Fight!

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    Yesterday a group of masked protesters marched down the Lawn to the Rotunda at the University of Virginia demanding a meeting with President Jim Ryan. Spliced among their chants in support of Palestine and against Israel, they intoned the moronic slogan, “Pro… test is a right! That is why we have to fight!” View the video here.

    JAB going ballistic

    Dudes, no one blocked your right to protest! You’re protesting right now, and no one is stopping you! Not only that, you’re recording your own protest and posting it online! Nothing is happening to you. No one is paying attention. No one cares. What on earth are you whinging about?

    Perhaps the marchers were alluding to the shutdown of the pro-Gaza encampment at UVA in May after students were warned repeatedly to disassemble the tent gathering and, when they refused, were broken up by state police. Several were arrested, charged with trespassing, let out of jail, had the trespassing charges dropped, and even had their infractions of the Student Code of Conduct dropped.

    Those demonstrators weren’t arrested for protesting…. which they had been doing for days. They were arrested (but never punished) for violating the same time-manner-place restrictions every other UVA student must abide by. If such drivel is what constitutes college-level thinking these days, the only demand the protesters should be making is for a tuition refund.

    — JAB

     

  • Can Virginia Survive Federal “Debt Doom”?

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    by James A. Bacon

    by James A. Bacon

    I call it “Boomergeddon.” Blogger-columnist-law school prof Glenn Harlan Reynolds calls it “Debt Doom.” Whatever you call it, the fiscal meltdown of U.S. government finances is nearly inevitable. The only meaningful questions are how long it takes to happen and how to survive it.

    Reynolds and I are hardly the only people worried about the impending deficit-induced crash. There’s a vast community of gold-bugs and crypto-jockeys who believe the same thing. But Reynolds is the first I’ve seen (other than yours truly) to explore the implications for state governments. He, like I, says it’s time now for states and businesses to prepare themselves for a collapse in federal finances and capacity.

    First a quick refresher. Uncle Sam posted a $1.8 trillion deficit in fiscal 2024 — not during a recession, not during a time of war, but during a period of peacetime economic expansion. Most of the deficit is structural, in that spending consists increasingly of entitlements and interest payments on $35 trillion in debt. The Congressional Budget Office projects that the deficit will exceed $2.8 trillion within 10 years — and that doesn’t take into account all the spending that both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have promised to enact if they get elected president. A likely trigger for crisis will come by 2033 at the latest, when the Social Security Trust Fund runs dry, payments will be cut roughly 25%, and Congress has to figure out what to do about it.

    (more…)

  • UVA to Theta Chi: Evict Brothers from Frat House. Theta Chi: No.

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    by James A. Bacon

    AI-generated image. Credit: Bing Image Creator

    As part of the punishment meted out for hazing infractions, the University of Virginia ordered Theta Chi fraternity to kick 10 brothers out of its Charlottesville frat house or risk having its sanction extended beyond four years. Refusing to break its leases and throw its members onto the street, the fraternity has asked the university to reconsider the sanction.

    In June the University of Virginia terminated the Fraternal Organization Agreement (FOA) with the Theta Chi fraternity for hazing offenses, including making pledges eat a concoction with habanero peppers that caused some to vomit. The decision required the fraternity to “[cease] all operations, including any acts that may be construed as the operation of an ‘underground’ organization” until the 2028-29 school year.

    An underground organization, states the Hazing Misconduct Report, “may include a group of students who in any way were affiliated with Theta Chi at the University and/or who continue to represent themselves as a successor organization to Theta Chi.”

    That included 10 students who had signed leases the previous October to live in the Theta Chi house. If they were allowed to stay, the Student Affairs office informed the fraternity, Theta Chi would be in violation of UVA’s order and the clock could be set back a year for when the fraternity would be allowed to be participate again as a university-affiliated organization.

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  • Subramanyam’s Fire-Fighting Credentials Questioned

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    by Audrey Carpenter

    Suhas Subramanyam

    Despite Virginia State Senator Suhas Subramanyam’s frequent references in his campaign literature and biographical material as a volunteer firefighter and EMT in Loudoun County, he was actually recommended for termination.

    According to an internal personnel file, in November 2019 Captain Hector R. Rodriguez, Jr. of the Ashburn Volunteer Fire and Rescue Department recommended Subramanyam be fired after he failed to adequately meet department standards. Subramanyam ultimately separated from the department. He served less than two years.

    Subramanyam consistently mentions his role as a volunteer EMT and firefighter in his website, campaign literature and marketing material, crediting his time as a firefighter as the basis for his service to the community.

    (more…)

Now Available

Book cover of 'Dust Mites: A Second American Revolution' by James A. Bacon, featuring astronauts planting a flag with a blue and white emblem on a lunar landscape, with Earth visible in the background.
For sale on Amazon.com

The year: 2075. The American colonies on the Moon are getting restless under Washington’s tyrannical rule….

This second edition of “Dust Mites” has a snazzy new cover, includes helpful lunar maps, and is 5,000 words tighter than the original. The sequel, “Trogs,” is scheduled for publication this summer.

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Bacon’s Rebellion is Virginia’s leading politically non-aligned portal for news, opinions and analysis about state, regional and local public policy. Read more about us here.

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