Bacon's Rebellion

The Defense Department has released a state-by-state breakdown of the winners and losers from the recommendations of the Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) Commission. To see the detailed impact on Virginia, click here. (Scroll to page 26 in the PDF file.)

Based on my hasty analysis of the list, it looks like Virginia will lose about 2,400 military and civilian jobs. The biggest hit–6,200 military jobs and 15,800 civilian jobs–will come from the closing or realignment of leased office space. I’m guessing that most of that space is in Northern Virginia. Also, Hampton Roads will lose nearly 3,600 from the closing of the Civil War-era Fort Monroe.

The big winners are Fort Belvoir (11,900 jobs) in Alexandria, Fort Lee (7,300 jobs) near Petersburg, and the U.S. Marine Corps base (3,000 jobs) in Quantico.

The usual suspects will come out whining and crying about the loss of jobs in their communities. Maybe I would, too, if I were in their shoes. But if there’s one place in the country that can shake off the loss of a few thousand jobs, it’s Northern Virginia. For Hampton Roads, the closing of Fort Monroe as a military installation will be offset by gains at the Norfolk Naval Shipyard and the Little Creek Amphibious Base. As a bonus, the Fort Monroe property, which is located on a primo waterfront site, can be redeveloped as a high-end commercial complex.

Oh, and let us not forget that base realignment is in the national interest. The closing of obsolete bases is necessary to support the transformation of the military so it can fight the kind of missions that will be demanded of it in the 21st century. Let’s get on with it.

As noted in a post near the end of the “Potts Elevates the Tone…” thread below, we agree with “Abitmorered” that there is some very good “stuff” in that thread. There is also some opinion and wishful thinking parading as fact as well as some bad assumptions masquerading as “research.”

Here are some items to keep in mind:

JOB MOVEMENT There is absolutely no evidence that a significant share of a New Urban Region’s key employment base “will continue moving towards where people live” so that there will at some point be meaningful jobs near scattered urban housing.

Thousands of individuals, agencies and enterprises lost Billions of dollars (yes, Billions with a big “B”) betting on an extrapolation of that idea in the 70s (REIT Bust) and in the 90s (Savings&Loan Bust). There have been a lot more losers scattered over the past 40 years. Sadly this myth has hit hardest those wanting to build great places to live, work and play (aka, Planned New Communities) in places they could buy cheap land.

Yes, some retail and service jobs move out but only when there was a critical mass of demand as Joel Garreau documented in Edge City.

Yes, once when there was a critical mass in some “Edge Cities” that are in the right location, then substantial numbers of jobs moved but this was an expansion of the regional core from R=2 Miles out to R=7 to R=11 Miles at the most. It is not R=25 Miles or R=30 Miles. A= PiR2

Yes, core regional employment will outsource to some other region or to some other continent if there are significant savings. You do not see many core Creative Class operations moving from K Street, Wall Street or Market Street to Bangalore. (See note on rent below.)

Those who did move to the fringe (the percentage of the region’s total is very small) beyond R=20 were folks like Steve Case (AOL) and UUNet’s promoter (Sedgemore sp?) because they thought they could make money as speculative office developers since they controlled a lot of office demand generated by their staff. They took advantage of overzoning, fire sales of land following a downturn and municipal/state subsidies direct and indirect.

Steve proved himself not to be the sharpest knife in the drawer on a number of topics, land speculation was one of them. Neither were those who bought UUNet and sunk MCI/World Com. Some say AOL cratered because it could not attract enough Creative Class people to fill key jobs all the way out at the Wal*Mart in the Weeds” site.

S/PI’s work with high tech employers suggests this will not change soon. Prince William’s and Loudoun’s percentage growth is high because they had so little to start with. You can still buy thousands of acres at fire sale prices in both counties if you want to build non-residential (aka, employment) land uses. (Again check the rental rates as noted below.)

We will address this issue in more depth in a planned column on current epidemic of myths about job location. In the meantime take out a compass and a calculator and see what you make of Monday’s (9 May The Washington Post Business Section.) survey of new office locations built since 2002. Note the rental rates for the “Wal*Mart in the Weeds” sites.

THE U SHAPED CURVE Vienna (Wien) Austria and the U shaped curve brings back great memories. I do not know if it was our idea or their idea but I recall discussing the U shaped curve with the senior transport staff in Wien in the mid 80s. We were scouring Western Europe for ideas to implement in the Virginia Center project at Vienna/Fairfax METRO. I am very clear on the fact that in the following 15 years we worked with graduate students and citizen education programs to develop the theory and expand the U Shape Curve to apply to the 40 +/- location variable services that make urban life possible. This became the second of the Five Natural Law of Human Settlement Patterns.

A real understanding of the U Shape curve would eliminate most of the blabbering about private vehicles vs. shared vehicles (aka, roadways vs. railways) in this thread and elsewhere.

There is a U Shaped Curve for each transport mode and it shifts on the x axis and y axis depending on a number of factors. The sweet spot for roadways is between 10 and 15 persons per acre at the Alpha Community scale. For a high capacity spared-vehicle systems the sweet spot is between 100 and 200 persons per acre in the Alpha Village scaled station area. With overlapping station-areas (i.e. Manhattan, Central London and the core of Paris) the density can be higher. These sites can be very expensive to build but there is demand in all these locations.

The most valued and the most functional settlement patterns in urban agglomerations of over 20,000 are higher in intensity than can be served by private vehicles. Sorry, there will never be functional urban agglomerations of over 100,000 without shared vehicle systems. That is not policy, that is physics.

(Some shared vehicle systems like jitneys, omnibuses, school buses, etc., are needed for every agglomeration to provide mobility for those who can not walk including the very young and the old.)

THE 20% MYTH The idea that savings in vehicle travel demand created by functional settlement pattern are in the 20% range is off by at least one decimal point; Perhaps half-way to two decimal points. It is 2 times at the very least and more likely 10 times. Jim Bacon is right, there are no Balanced Communities to test. Fundamental Change turns out to be hard to imagine, especially for those who have preconceived notions of that something else will make them more money in the short run.

Those who think putting three rickety tables on the side walk in front of Starbucks with a view of the McDonalds drive-thru is “pedestrian oriented” or that a Fresh Fields grocery store on the ground floor of an apartment building is “mixed use” or that a new urbanist project of cluster-scale or neighborhood-scale in the wrong location is a good idea have a hard time grasping the reality of what a community of 150,000 with a balance of jobs/housing/services/recreation/amenity might be like. It has nothing to do with what has been modeled in Oregon (LUTRAC) or anywhere else.

THE DAILY GRIND Almost no one would really like to ride shared-vehicle system to work every day if it functioned like METRO. (See our backgrounder “Time to Fundamentally Rethink METRO …”) That is what Balanced Station Area Villages are all about. Also see the two key shared vehicle understandings in our current column “Antidotes.”

For the person who expressed his preference not to ride METRO and who looked forward to leaving “NOVA.” If the can convince Dick to move your office from Mass Ave I believe I can arrange a site, the capital and a streamlined process to get your office relocated to a place that has the potential to become a Balanced, Disaggregated Community. It could be a world class example of how to do it right.

Sorry, you will still be in the northern part of Virginia. (See our column “Where is Northern Virginia.”) and even your move would not be enough to ensure the evolution of even one Balanced, Disaggregated Community. It would be a great start.

The scale of the problem ahead is why citizen education is the first step to Fundamental Change.

EMR

The intra-Republican feuding is getting ugly — as nasty as anything between Virginia Republicans and Democrats. From Leesburg2day comes the report that the campaign of Del. Joe May, R-33, has filed a formal complaint alleging that his challenger, Christopher Oprison, has violated numerous campaign laws.

The complaint, filed with Loudoun Commonwealth’s Attorney Jim Plowman and Clarke County Commonwealth’s Attorney Suzanne M. Perka, potentially could lead to criminal and civil charges against Oprison and members of his campaign staff, and disqualification of Oprison from the ballot. The offenses range, according to Leesburg2day, from the Oprison campaign having an ineligible campaign worker collect signatures and sign affidavits to accusations of tampered and mishandled documents. Sayeth Leesburg2Day:

Many of the complaints center around 22-year-old Andrew Tyrell, a Patrick Henry College student working for Oprison. Tyrell came from Florida and apparently was registered to vote there until May’s campaign raised questions with the local Republican Party shortly after the petitions were delivered about whether he was an eligible Virginia voter. Tyrell’s car was also registered in Florida.

Tyrell signed many of the affidavits verifying the signature on the campaign petition forms. The form states that the person signing must be at least 18, have no felony convictions and be eligible to vote in Virginia. After the concern was raised, Tyrell registered to vote in Virginia, an action confirmed by the local electoral board.

While Bacon’s Rebellion staffers like myself were diligently pursuing our reporting assignments, Boss Man Jim Bacon added a blogroll to the site. It’s already attracted notice from One Man’s Trash and Commonwealth Conservative, including pleas to add The Salt Lick and River City Rapids.

At the risk of raising Jim’s ire and having him assign me to cover Steve Chapman’s tax returns, I hereby join the calls to add these two worthy sites.

In today’s Roanoke Times, Steve DelBianco, an NVA entrepreneur, argues against Virginia signing up for a national “streamlined” sales tax system for internet retailers. The RT had editorially endorsed the concept.

I suspect Russ Potts neglected to mention this tax idea during his appearance in NVA yesterday, but I’m sure he’d disagree with Mr. DelBianco and side with the tax-happy bunch in Roanoke.

“Independent Republican” Russ Potts spoke in Northern Virginia yesterday and received favorable coverage in the Washington Post. For those who are tired of “Accent-gate,” Potts offered new heights of substance:

Potts railed against what he called the “free lunch bunch” and “flat-earth crowd” in the Republican Party that he said have not acknowledged how much it will cost to improve the state’s transportation network.

He excoriated conservatives for what he called their “obsession” with social issues. And he blasted a Kilgore proposal for a constitutional amendment that would require a voter referendum before raising state taxes, calling it a way to avoid leading.

“Let me spell referendum for you,” he said. “It’s spelled C-O-W-A-R-D.”

Demonstrating his wonkish streak, “Potts vowed to let local governments reinstate the car tax to pump more money into state services.”

He laid out his complex transportation plan:

Potts promised to put together a blue-ribbon panel to consider ways to improve transportation, with all ideas on the table, including a gas tax increase. As governor, he said, he would hold a special session of the General Assembly to pass a transportation plan and travel the state to sell it.

Of course, one idea is apparently off the table: referenda. Potts wasn’t asked about that. He also wasn’t asked about his past support for referenda. Had he once been a C-O-W-A-R-D?

Obviously, at this stage of the campaign, with reporters trying to make the race more interesting by boosting the Winchester “straight-shooter,” questioning Potts on the details just isn’t newsworthy right now.

The May edition of Virginia Business magazine opens its cover story, “The Medicaid Money Crunch”, with a telling anecdote: The Eastern Shore’s nonprofit Bay Aging organization supplies home-health aides to elderly people so they can live semi-independently at home rather than running up the tab in a nursing home. VB summarizes the organization’s predicament as follows:

Medicaid reimbursement for the home-health service is so low that the agency pays its aides only $7 an hour with no benefits. As a result, turn-over is rampant. In one recent year, 40 of 140 aides left Bay Aging. Without aides to tend to them, many aging clients are forced into the institutional setting of nursing homes–which Medicaid must reimburse at a much higher rate. “From a business point of view, why would you not be trying to fund the in-home services that are much less expensive?” asks Senior Vice President Velsey-Massey.

Could raising the reimbursement for home-health Medicaid services help the state save money? That depends on a number of things: (a) how much it would cost to pay the home-care aides more money; (b) the number of patients who, then, could stay at home rather than check into a nursing home; and (c) how much the state would save by having fewer patients in nursing homes. Virginia Business doesn’t provide those numbers, but it certainly seems to be worth investigating.

Virginia runs one of the fiscally tightest Medicaid programs in the country, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t opportunities to save money through sharper management. Given the inevitable aging of the population and escalating expenditures in future years, the state needs to explore every avenue possible to run its Medicaid program more efficiently.

Augusta Free Press recently wrote, “Kilgore has charged political rival Tim Kaine, the presumptive Democratic Party gubernatorial nominee, with making light of his accent in a cheap attempt to win votes…”

Jerry, this charge sounds like something campaign stress can do…

Because most folks born in Virginia sound like ‘Hicks from the Sticks’ — and I’m including ‘the blue dog’ and other Bacon bloggers. Now, I’m not endorsing the “Carry Me Back to Ole Virginny” song and dance litany …

But where was Tim Kaine born, and if it was not in Virginia, how many years did he live in other states?

The Project Vote Smart website has listed the ‘Birthplace’ blank. But curious political minds want to know. Why the mystery??? Was he born in the Midwest? The Northeast? The Leftcoast? Or at Elvis Presley’s Graceland?

Recently, ‘a hunk-of -burning’ media outlets reported, “The Democrat in Virginia’s race for governor speaks with the clipped Midwestern cadence of a game show host.” Perhaps, Mr. Kaine was raised in Kansas! That’s been reported as well.

With his faith-base campaign, Tim ‘the choirboy’ Kaine has let everybody know in Virginia that he spent one year in Honduras with Catholic ministries during law school. The Blue Dog questions why his campaign staff advertises ‘heavenly merit badges’ for ‘earthly political offices’ — yet doesn’t mention his birthplace?

In search of a birthright, frantic VA Democratic Bloggers have been quoting the ‘Almanac of Virginia Politics,’ which lists Kaine’s birthplace as Minnesota and the fact that Kaine graduated from the University of Missouri and Harvard Law School in Massachusetts. Does he have resident time in those three states?

Maybe, Tim ‘a-la-Steve Chapman’ Kaine might have registered to vote in those places to prove his residences? By the way, we bloggers have read the tear-jerking accounts of Chapman’s favorite doggie Mr. Nixon and his demise, but what about the dog’s birthplace?

What’s the real story… err, sorry folks, I’m dogressing again…

Back to Kaine. Is he another case study for alien abductions? NOTE: The Blue Dog is not ‘yip-yapping’ about those illegal Hispanic aliens trampling over our unprotected Mexican-American borders either. I’m talking about space aliens and UFOs!

For all we know, Tim ‘the spaceboy’ Kaine might have been born in the desert ranchland north of the little town of Roswell, New Mexico. But enough of the conspiracy theories…

Where in the heck was Tim Kaine born?

~ Chucho Azul

Moreno comentario, pasado mañana? Si?

Today’s Washington Post tells us that Steve Chapman, the 27-year-old challenger to Del. Harry Parrish, R-Manassas, will appear in court today–not to confront widely publicized charges that he lied about where he lived when he registered to vote last year, but to face misdemeanor charges that he’d let his dog, Nixon, “run at large.”

Nixon, a yellow Labrador retriever, allegedly escaped from the yard of Chapman’s Woodbridge home last August and was killed by a car. “He was a good dog,” Chapman said, as quoted by the Post. “I grew up loving politics and thought I’d name him after a president,” he said. “My cat’s name is Liddy, like G. Gordon Liddy.”

Chapman questioned why he would be served with a complaint April 22, nearly eight months after the incident took place, contending that the charge is just another example of Parrish supporters trying to bring him down. Parrish, 83, told the Post he knew nothing about the complaint.

If it looks like a vendetta, walks like a vendetta and quacks like a vendetta… (Thanks to Ray Hyde for first noting this story.)

Warren Fiske of the Virginian-Pilot has a good summary of the six Republican primary challenges to delegates who voted for 2004 tax increase. The bottom line is that only one challenge, that to Gary Reese of Fairfax, seems to have much of a chance.

Fiske avoids the Larry Sabato ritual(and the “Not Larry Sabato” opportunity) by going deeper into his rolodex:

Much of the anti-tax debate may have shifted away from the incumbents, according to Robert Holsworth, a political scientist at Virginia Commonwealth University. Last year’s controversy centered on raising state taxes. This year, Holsworth said, most of the concern is focused on curbing steep increases in local real estate tax bills that are levied by local governments.

“The real estate tax is what’s slapping people in the face,” he said.

A lot of stars have to align for any kind of anti-incumbent or anti-tax mood to infect the public. While there are pockets of discontent, I just don’t think this is the year.

Norm over at One Man’s Trash offers some anti-tax fodder that might help the stars align.

The Bacon’s Rebellion blog isn’t just for policy wonks–it’s for campaign junkies. If you work for a statewide or General Assembly electoral campaign, please add us to your e-mail distribution list at [email protected]. We won’t have time to address every single press release that comes our way, but we will post the highlights.

Plus, we’ll do our level best to link to audio and video files that you’ve posted on your own websites. Newspapers and televisions want to filter your TV and radio spots through their news staffs — or make you pay to run them. We’re happy to link to them so interested readers can make their own evaluations.

— Jim Bacon

Compared to the four-way, Kaine-Kilgore-Fitch-Potts spat-fest in the gubernatorial race, the Attorney General campaigns have remained fairly civil affairs. Until now. The Virginia Conservative Action PAC, which puts state tax and spending reform at the top of its list of priorities, has endorsed Del. Bob McDonnell, R-Virginia Beach, for Attorney General. The PAC promptly rolled out radio ads supporting him and attacking his opponent, Richmond attorney Steve Baril.

In a 60-second ad paid for by VCAP and authorized by McDonnell, a narrator states: “His opponent, Steve Baril, has no experience as a prosecutor. Baril’s own Web site says his law practice is quote ‘devoted primarily to business and commercial litigation.’ Do we really want a commercial litigator who’s never served as a prosecutor or elected official to serve as Virginia’s top cop?”

Responding promptly in a press release, Steve Baril said: “It’s unfortunate that Del. McDonnell, with a 14-year record in the General Assembly, has so little positive to say about himself that he has to attack me. I consider it a compliment that my campaign has gained so much momentum that Bob is now on the attack. I look forward to a spirited four weeks and to winning the Republican Primary on June 14th.”

In his column “Freedom and Learning” in the current edition of Bacon’s Rebellion, Doug Koelemay criticised several conservative legislators for protesting an event billed as a sex education fair at George Mason University. Sen. Ken Cuccinelli, R-Centreville, has responded as follows:

Doug Koelemay, in his article entitled “Freedom and Learning” seems to be making the argument that George Mason University is rightly focused on the values he uses in his title, as demonstrated in the recent “Sextravaganza” event held on campus. He draws these values from the school motto, namely, “Freedom and Learning.”

There is an odd subtext that criticizes elected officials who dare to question anything the administration does, noting that legislators should only be performing “broad oversight and accountability functions”. Mr. Koelemay does not say what he means by oversight and accountability, but it is clear that his definition does not include actual oversight and accountability. Only a consultant that makes his living representing liberal Democrats could say this with a straight face.

It is interesting and revealing that Koelemay thinks it particularly egregious that the 5 legislators that opposed this event are legislators that vote against higher taxes. He does not tie this to his main point, he just sort of throws it out there unrelated to anything else in the article…. a lot like this paragraph….

Back to the main point. Now I may be wrong, but it would seem that Mr. Koelemay did not actually attend the event. I am drawing this inference because he harshly criticizes those who would “misrepresent” the event, but then he does that very thing. I am assuming this is because he is depending on third party reports and did not see the actual goings on (if he even bothered to get third party reports…). Click on “comments” in the line below to read the rest of this post.

In a highway robbery reminiscent of the Robin Hood days, the Commonwealth Transportation Board—an unelected and unaccounted body of appointed bureaucrats—has decided to saddle the users of the Dulles Toll Road with the costs of the states contribution toward extending Metro to the Dulles Airport (see: “Railroaded Again”).

The tolls, which are due to double at most exits, will increase on May 22. In anticipation of the toll increase, a local group opposing this unfair and discriminatory tax increase on a select group of Virginians (i.e., the users of the Dulles Toll Road), posted banners on some overpasses alerting the drivers of the upcoming toll increase and directing them to their website (http://www.notollincrease.com) where they can find details about the pending toll increase and the Dulles Rail boondoggle.

It’s important to note that several days earlier, the VA Dept. of Rail & Public Transportation (VDRPT) had mounted similar banners across all the overpasses directing interested parties to a pro-rail website (http://www.dullesmetro.com).

Prior to posting the signs, NoTollIncrease.com checked with Fairfax County Government officials responsible for regulating the posting of signs on public roadways; they had advised that no permit was needed to display these signs (according to these officials only political campaign signs require a permit and the posting of a bond).

Today the NoTollIncrease.com banners were torn down apparently by VDOT, while the DullesMetro.com banners were left intact. So much for free speech on the Dulles Toll Road.

The annual Urban Mobility report from the Texas Transportation Institute (TTI) is out and it has very good news, at least for us.

We have just completed reading some of the media coverage, the TAMU press release, the summary report (24 pages) the full report (91 pages) and several of the special technical supplements. The good news? We do not have to rewrite our 20 September 2004 column “Spinning Wheels, Spinning Data.” The report presents the same picture with the same flaws with only a few percentage point differences.

The TTI/TAMU report is still the best measure of urban area travel congestion citizens have access to. And it is still misleading and incomplete for all the reasons we spell out in our column on last year’s report. Tim and David could not change the report even if they wanted to because of who pays for the study and the other work of TTI. You guessed it, it is just the ones who are responsible for the problem in the first place, USDOT, state DOTs and the asphalt gang.

As if it needed to be any more clear, the timing of the release highlights the political nature of the report. Even the press release notes the report was released when the “transportation” (aka, “highway pork barrel” until there is a direct tie between transport and human settlement pattern) re-authorization hearings got underway. It turns out it was released the very same day as the Senate took up the $284 Billion re-authorization dollar bill.

The press coverage (e.g. AP story carried by CNN and The Washington Post) only makes the picture more muddled. The media quote those who get paid by the auto-mobility lobby about the need for more asphalt and traffic management. The media do note the need for “land-use planing” but not Fundamental Change in the pattern of trip origins and destinations or balancing travel demand with system capacity much less Balanced Communities.

The TAMU staff notes in the study that they do not evaluate “strategies (i.e. Fundamental Change in human settlement patterns) that present opportunities for improving transportation.”

For those who thought we were a little strong with Antidote One in yesterday’s column check out point two from “The Big Picture” (we like those words :>) summary at the end of the full report: “Hours of delay, time of day and the miles of road that are congested have grown every year.” A slow economy in 2003 (the year the data was gathered by transportation agencies for this years report) cause slight decreases in some measures in some regions. But for prosperous places…

Stay tuned for coming columns on real congestion relief.

EMR