Bacon's Rebellion

There’s a column in the WaPo about blogflogging with ‘not larry sabato’ … I’ve enjoyed the NLS blog and the primary election predictions, but the web post have been politically adrift and personal in nature for several weeks.

The WaPo column notes Bacon’s Rebellion, the 800lb gorilla of blogs in the Commonwealth, as an honorable mention in the column’s side bar.

Q. But where’s “One’s Man’s Trash,” “Raising Kaine” and “The Jaded JD” web logs???

Obviously, the WaPo is no longer the high quality ‘Kate and Meg Show’ of the ’80s and ’90s.

File this under, ‘hacks, handlers and hustlers’…

Politicians Deal With Newcomer, The Blog / Va. Candidates Find Help, Lies on Web
David and Shayna Englin are all too familiar with the power of bloggers. Courting these off-the-cuff Internet columnists helped David Englin, a relative unknown, win a Democratic primary for a Northern Virginia House seat last month. “You can imagine how much fun it is when [state delegates] have a closed meeting . . . and all of a sudden, the secret meeting . . . is now out on the Internet.” Organizers of the Not Larry Sabato blog contend that postings about candidates are fair, especially because they are public figures. Speaking only on condition of anonymity, one of them said the blog criticizes politicians on both sides of the aisle. “We are equal opportunity bashers here.”http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/07/04/AR2005070401164.html

The Blog Spots
At least 20 blogs are discussing various aspects of the 2005 election campaign and Virginia politics in general. Here is a sample.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/07/04/AR2005070401099.html

~ the blue dog

Speaking on his monthly call-in show on WRVA Radio, Gov. Mark R. Warner counter attacked Republicans who, in response to the ever-growing budget surplus, have said the 2004 tax hikes were unnecessary. According to Michael Hardy’s recounting of Warner’s remarks in the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Warner said:

Republicans, primarily in the House, “are quick to point out the surplus, but they’re quick to spend” the higher-than-forecast tax collections.” He emphasized that members of the GOP-dominated House budget committee sought more than $2 billion in additional spending requests last session.

Oh, come on. Every legislator submits spending proposals. Tallying up the price tag of all those proposals is a meaningless exercise. What matters is how much the House decides to spend after sorting through all the initiatives. In this case, the House followed the Governor’s lead and decided to spend almost all of the surplus (excepting only that portion legally required to go into the Rainy Day fund and a bit that would allow the state to reduce the sales tax on food earlier than scheduled). I dare say that virtually none of that “$2 billion in additional spending” made it into the House’s final budget documents.

What would Gov. Warner have said in January/February this year if the House had stuck to its convicinos and tried cutting taxes instead? The Governor and the state Senate would have have shut down any such bill before the ink had dried. Knowing that a tax cut was a political non-starter, the House leadership did what it had to do, which was spend the money in the most responsible manner it could — on one-time initiatives that didn’t add to programmatic overhead.

Having boxed in the House to spend the surplus, Gov. Warner now criticizes the House for spending the surplus. That’s a nice trick if you can get away with it.

Finally, a transportation editorial in the (Newport News) Daily Press that I can agree with. The anonymous editorial reviews a series of mega-projects where cost estimates are escalating out of control, undermining the original justification for the projects. Two cases in point… (Read rest of post on The Road to Ruin blog.)

Hey, What’s Hillary Clinton doing in Northern Virginia? According to the WaPo‘s Michael Shear, (“Clinton Cashes in in Warner Territory), some 200 people gathered at the Old Town Hilton in Alexandria–Gov. Warner’s old stomping grounds–to bash Bush administration fiscal policies and raise money.

Clinton tactfully praised Warner, a presumed challenger in her bid for the Democratic Party nomination in the 2008 presidential election. Wrote Shear: “Clinton praised Warner, wishing him a speedy recovery from a broken hand “so he’s back in fighting shape and fighting spirit as soon as possible.” But, Shear added:

Clinton’s decision to raise money in Warner’s home town put Virginia Democrats in an awkward spot. Some are wowed by Clinton. But many of the same Democrats have privately pledged to support Warner if he decides to make a run for the nomination.

In today’s AFP Blue Dog interview, LG candidates Byrne and Bolling discuss the current challenges Virginia health care faces moving forward along with the differences in party philosophies with the issue:

“So I would question whether or not the proposals put forth by Ms. Byrne are legally possible, and even if they were, I do not believe they represent sound public policy. And these proposals have no realistic chance of passage in the General Assembly,” Bolling said.

“Perhaps most important, they clearly show that Ms. Byrne’s answer to every problem begins and ends with another government program,” Bolling said.

What is Bolling’s alternative plan for lower health-care expenses?

“Good question,” Byrne said. “He chaired a study committee that was supposed to help Virginia come up with a plan to address health-care coverage for Virginia. He came up with nothing substantive, and he still hasn’t.”

Augusta Free Press : Byrne and Bolling are health nuts

What are your thoughts

~ the blue dog

“… political philosophy is motivated by a discordance between how people think the world should be and how they find it” ~ Todd May, Clemson University, 2000

From the National Journal:

“Best Imitation Of John Kerry Award Goes To… Lt. Gov. Tim Kaine (D). Kaine’s position on the death penalty has become even more muddled thanks to his new TV ad in the Virginia governor’s race. Here is the direct quote from his spot:

Huh? Obviously, we know he’s trying to say that he’ll follow Virginia’s law and carry out the death penalty even though he’s personally opposed to the idea. But is Kaine actually pledging to never commute a death sentence? He’ll always follow the law on the matter? It’s one thing to give this answer to the death penalty issue at a debate, it’s another to trumpet the conflict in a paid TV ad. This has the “I actually voted for it before I voted against it” feel to it.”

Read more about it: ON THE TRAIL: Careless Whispers (06/29/2005)

Blue Dog question: Why not leave religion out of the campaign?

Too late! Because the Kaine trap that has been set — “let’s not keep religion out of the public spaces, but not the Gubernatorial campaign” — is an attempt to made one’s religious credentials as relevant as intelligence, experience, or policies.

I say let us all defend America against the proselytizing theosophs-politicos.

Woodshed Etiquette: If there is firewood at the bottom of the trail, help bring it up to the woodshed. If the dog bites, but doesn’t bark — he’s well trained and never visits the woodshed. People that complain about dogs don’t know that he’s man’s best friend both on and off the trail. The only difference between squirrels and rats is that squirrels have good press. But no doubt, rats love to eat garbage.

Just ask the Valley Blue Dog because he knows when it’s time to comment on one or the other.

~ the blue dog

Tim Kaine wants to focus the gubernatorial debate on transportation, which he rightly describes as the most important issue facing the electorate today. (See the article in Leesburg2day.) Right now, the only person consistently getting ink on transportation is Russ Potts, and he is degrading the debate through the mindless repetition of platitudes. But Jerry Kilgore doesn’t want to talk about transportation — he wants to talk about the Americans with Disabilities Act. Why? Because it’s a stick he can beat Kaine with.

The Kilgore campaign’s latest attack memo criticizes Kaine’s record for failing to get the city of Richmond schools into compliance with the Americans for Disabilities Act. The Richmond Times-Dispatch wrote about the problem. A study reported that it would cost $20 million to bring the schools to compliance. Most recently (since Kaine left office), a lawsuit in federal district court notes that only four of the city’s 60 schools meet ADA standards.

Kaine spokesperson Delacey Skinner told the Washington Post that the ADA problem was “not a problem that was ever brought to the attention of the city council or the mayor.” The Kilgore memo mocks Kaine: “He claims he didn’t know there was a problem. Leaders are supposed to know.”

It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out. It looks like the Kilgore campaign has found a “gotcha” issue that will put Kaine on the defensive. No Democrat wants to appear insensitive to the travails of the disabled. Kaine can’t win this one. But is this really an issue that Republicans can exploit? What is Kilgore suggesting — that Kaine should have spent the $20 million bringing all 60 Richmond city schools up to standard, ignoring all of the school system’s other pressing needs? Is Kilgore going to advocate spending hundreds of millions of dollars to bring schools across Virginia up to ADA standards today? I don’t think so. And I don’t think the electorate will either.

Jerry, go debate Kaine on transportation. It is the most important issue out there right now. I don’t care if you debate in a formal televised debate, or just through informal channels like your stump speeches, radio ads and e-mail missives. Just debate it.

From today’s Washington Post:

Grand Jury Demands Lawmaker’s Documents
Investigation Centers On Ties to Contractor
By Renae Merle and Jeffrey H. Birnbaum
Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, June 29, 2005; D01

A federal grand jury in Southern California has subpoenaed documents from Rep. Randy “Duke” Cunningham, his lawyer said yesterday in a written statement. Prosecutors have been examining the congressman’s relationship with Mitchell J. Wade, the owner of District-based defense contractor MZM Inc.

In 2003, Wade bought the California Republican’s home near San Diego for $1.675 million. He later resold it for a $700,000 loss. For the past year, Cunningham has been living rent-free while in Washington on a 42-foot yacht owned by Wade.
The congressman, a member of the House Appropriations Committee’s defense subcommittee, said last week that he showed “poor judgment” in his dealings with Wade but that he had done nothing wrong. He said he supported funding intelligence programs but gave no preferential treatment to MZM.

Then this on the jump page of the story: The firm’s management has been in flux in recent weeks. Wade stepped aside earlier this month because of the investigation and was replaced by Frank Bragg Jr. and Kay Coles James, who served as chief executive and chief operating officer, respectively. Bragg, who previously served as MZM’s chief operating officer, and James, the former director of the Office of Personnel Management, “voluntarily resigned,” the statement said.

What the Post didn’t tell you: Kay Cole James was Virginia’s Secretary of Health and Human Services under Governor George Allen, is a former dean at Pat Robertson’s Regent University, was a member of the Fairfax County School Board, the Virginia State Board of Education and served on the board of directors of the Coalitioin of Christian Colleges and Universities, the Fellowship of Christian Athletes, Focus on the Family and the Center for Jewish and Christian Values.

Love those Christian values, Ms. James! So tell us, what did you know about this cozy arrangement with ‘Duke,’ and when did you know it?

The “Road to Ruin” blog has raised an important question regarding a potential bail-out of Interstate 895, also known as the Pocahontas Parkway. An Australian company and Irish bank want to take over rights to operate the parkway, a toll road that skirts around the southeastern edge of Richmond.

The million-dollar question: How would private-sector owners stimulate enough traffic to pay off the bonds and generate a profit? By fostering growth and development in eastern Henrico, where someone else will have to pay for infrastructure and public services? Read details here.

Gov. Mark Warner took a bad spill on a bicycle ride near Lexington Tuesday, breaking his hand in two places. An Associated Press photo in the Richmond Times-Dispatch showed him, talking to the press, with what appeared to be a heavily bandaged hand and a neck brace. His good spirits under such adverse circumstances undoubtedly plays a role in his popularity as governor. The accompanying story doesn’t quote him, but I can just imagine him waving off the incident with self-deprecating humor. You just can’t help but like a guy who bounces back like that.

The Virginia House of Delegate 2005 Election web blog is morphing into a three-ring political circus with the latest celebrity post by ‘not jim gilmore’…

Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

‘not jim gilmore’ wrote: “That’s 41 Pro-Virginia, 35 Anti-Virginia and 3 fingers in the wind. With 21 seats left, everyone needs to be very aware that we have not won this election yet.”

Blue Dog question of the day: Is that a one-finger salute?

Earlier this week, celebrity bloggers, Dem House of Delegate candidate David Englin and ‘Pub anti-tax Senator Ken Cuccenilli, both back off early commitments. The Blue Dog’s congressional source, ‘Dry Throat,’ alerted me to candidate David Englin and wife blogflogging ‘not larry sabato’ — Apparently, ‘NLS’ fibbed about these celebrity bloggers…

Who are the web log anonymous posters — ‘not larry sabato’ AND ‘not jim gilmore’? Any thoughts, or comments?

The Blue Dog’s best guess for the anonymous bloggers…

Probable identity of ‘not larry sabato’: Washington Post writers and Warner sycophant twins, Michael Shear and Chris Jenkins… Or RT-D columnist Jeff ‘good copy’ Schapiro (But if we take him at his word, NLS says he resides in Chesterfield County).

Probable identity of ‘not jim gilmore’: Delegate Gary Reese.

The Blue Dog’s favorite ‘Pub buddy Red Dog (who serves in the GA House) wrote: “Delegate Reese is not that computer kind of guy so he is not larry sabato. His style is more Shear than Schapiro…NLS is more like a real reporter. Not jim gilmore IS probably preston bryant.”

But CC guest blogger, Norm ‘one mans trash’ Leahy wrote: “Not Jim Gilmore, I believe, is Preston Bryant,” but posted that it could be the ‘Pub court jester, Russ Potts.

Commonwealth Conservative » I’m Anti-Virginia, How ‘Bout You?

Another fellow Bacon’ Bits blogger wrote, “It seems like Not Larry Sabato has gone from premier political prognosticator to rumor monger central in one week. Don’t quite understand ….”

On the identity of ‘not jim gilmore’, he wrote: “I have no clue. I think all this has taken anonymous posting too far and is giving blogging a bad name.”

The real question is this: What’s the real identity of CC’s John Behan?

~ the blue dog

Gov. Warner’s idea of cross-enrolling high school students, particularly those suffering “senioritis,” in community college courses is a great initiative. Students get challenged with a taste of the “next level” and earn college credits they can hopefully apply to their four year college.

Another idea using the community college system comes from Glenn DuBois, chancellor of the Virginia Community College system. According to this Gary Robertson story in the Richmond Times-Dispatch, DuBois hopes to counter rising demand on enrollment at Virginia’s public universities by incentivizing more students to start at community colleges and transfer:

Under the proposal, which he has circulated to legislators, community college graduates with a grade-point average of B or better would pay the community college tuition rate at the four-year public institutions to which they transfer.

In addition, the four-year institution would receive $1,000 per transfer student. DuBois has estimated that the program would cost the state about $4 million annually.

Savings to the state would come from the estimated $4,500 he says the state will save for every full-time Virginia student who begins his or her education at a community college.

“The lowest cost to a baccalaureate degree is the community college on-ramp,” DuBois said. “It’s the lowest cost for Virginia families. It’s the lowest cost for the state.”

I don’t know if DuBois’ payout numbers are accurate and defensible, but it’s the kind of thinking needed to confront expected shortfalls in capacity:

The increase of students trying to enter college is tied to record school-age enrollments. In the past five years alone, the state’s number of high school graduates has risen 11 percent.

In 1999-2000, there were 67,458 graduates statewide. By 2003-2004, the number had jumped to 75,101. Numbers for the most recent class of graduates are not yet available, according to the Virginia Department of Education.

There are several problems with DuBois’ idea, not the least of which is that he’s got a vested interest in enlarging his community college portfolio. That aside, there are already shortages of community college slots for certain curricula, such as nursing. Is the faculty infrastructure up to his plan? There’s a marketing issue. The State Council for Higher Education in Virginia (SCHEV) turned thumbs-down to a proposal to build a four year college in Southside because it didn’t believe students would matriculate there. Going to community college will not be nearly as glamorous as going away to school–is this financial carrot enough to overcome the intial disappointment of not being able to live in a dorm?

It’s certainly an idea worth pursuing. Maybe community colleges can do more to seem like a college community in Blacksburg, Fredericksburg, or Farmville. If just the type of students who drop out in their first two years of a four year college for maturity reasons took up the DuBois plan, it might be worth it.

Norm Leahy calls Jeff Schapiro’s Richmond Times-Dispatch column this morning “eye-glazing.” It’s all about Joan S. Dent, retiring executive director of the Virginia Governmental Employees Association (VGEA).

Maybe, because I’m a state employee myself, I actually found it interesting, especially reading between the lines.

First of all, out of 112,000 state employees, only 18,000 are members of the organization “that lobbies the General Assembly and executive branch on behalf of state workers.”

Second, salary seems to be the only issue for Ms. Dent.

Third, and perhaps most important, kind words from Ms. Dent only seem to go toward Democratic governors.

Two and three contribute mightily to number one, in my estimation, and that’s one big problem with the VGEA.

Sometime in the coming months gubernatorial candidates will address state employee “issues” in a bid to woo the state workforce’s votes. When I get back from vacation, I’m going to make some suggestions about what the candidates should offer taxpayers and state employees. Hint: salary isn’t at the top of list.

In a post yesterday morning, I questioned whether the Daily Press was engaging in a little revisionist history in the way it portrayed the Moody’s credit watch on Virginia’s AAA bond rating. Perhaps, I suggested, the Moody’s warning to Gov. Warner and senior legislators was more ambiguous than subsequently portrayed in the 2004 tax-hike debate. Now comes Gordon C. Morse, a contributing editor at the Daily Press, with details that I find persuasive.

Morse e-mailed me as follows:

Jim, oddly enough, I actually do know what Moody’s said, because I asked. The Moody’s representative came down for the House Appropriations Committee retreat at Alumni Hall at William & Mary on Tuesday, Nov. 18, 2003. After her presentation, I asked her if she had some time, and we sat in one the conference rooms and discussed the process used by Moody’s at some length, but off the record. There was no ambiguity. None. Virginia was on Moody’s 90-day watch, which was subsequently extended because of the protracted debate of the 2004 legislative session. Moody’s reasons for this were not new. Barents Group, in a privately-financed analysis, had already reported in September, 1999 that “on a current services level, expenditures exceed revenues by about $0.7 billion in FY 2000 and by more than $1 billion by FY2008.” Barents also calculated for anticipated additional or “supplemental” spending for Medicaid and higher education and said that would run the state fiscal gap “to more than $3.5 billion by FY 2008.”

In early 2004, there were repeated meetings with Moody’s, with Warner himself intervening more than once to keep Moody’s from downgrading the state’s credit rating. None of this was reported, but I kept up with it by simply making inquiries. North Carolina went through the same thing and did in fact have its rating reduced to double-A, as I remember.

Bottom line: The Moody’s downgrade threat was real. Given thatGov. Warner was intent upon hiking state spending to bring K-12 schools up to the re-benchmarked Standards of Quality, it’s much easier to understand his decision to raise taxes. I’m not saying that I agree with the decision but it would be unfair to accuse Warner, as some did at the time, of exaggerrating the Moody’s threat.

One of these days, we’ll have to dig into that SOQ re-benchmarking process, but that’s another question for another day.

Here’s the complete Til Hazel passage from the Washington Post story on Tim Kaine’s transportation plan that Barnie posted on below:

John T. “Til” Hazel, a developer and frequent critic of both Kaine and Kilgore, said Kaine’s pledge to veto new transportation taxes is “political baloney.”

“That is such a nothing plan, it’s hard for me to even think or comment,” said Hazel, who is supporting Potts. “That’s as bad as Kilgore saying we are going to have a bunch of regional authorities. What . . . do you need a governor for if you are going to do that?”

Hazel’s comment leads me to ask what kind of governor he thinks Virginia needs.

Here’s how the Post summarizes the plan of his candidate:

Sen. H. Russell Potts (R-Winchester), who is running for governor as an independent, has said he will create a commission to develop solutions and call a special session to implement them.

There’s bold leadership from a governor! A “commission,” packed with Hazel-approved wise men and women, creating a plan not debated during the gubernatorial campaign. It could work! No bunch of pesky regional authorities to mollify, no doubting metropolitan planning organizations that might not buy into the plan handed down from the central “commission.”

Apparently, Til knows best, and it’s time we got a powerful governor who recognizes that.

Updaate: Norm Leahy offers this post with quotes from Til Hazel after the defeat of transportation referenda in 2002. If you can’t trust the people to do the right thing, entrust a commission.