Bacon's Rebellion

Tim Kaine lost my vote today.

I’d genuinely been undecided on whether to vote for Kaine or Jerry Kilgore. Kilgore has the better stance on taxes, but Kaine has — make that had — the better transportation policy. In particular, Kaine acknowledges that a root problem of traffic congestion in Virginia today is the disjunction between land use planning and transportation planning. Local governments are approving development projects without regard to the impact on regional transportation networks — only too happy to let the Virginia Department of Transportation clean up the mess they create.

Kilgore has some interesting ideas on how to approach transportation, but Kaine, I thought, had the more profound understanding of the problem. Apparently, I was wrong. According to Chris Jenkins of the Washington Post, Kaine advocates giving local governments the power to reject rezoning requests with a negative traffic impact. Sayeth the Post:

In one new ad, the announcer says, “As you inch your way home in traffic, ask yourself, ‘Is the problem that you don’t pay enough taxes, or is it runaway development?’ Then the candidate says: “We can’t tax and pave our way out of traffic.”

Kaine gets half of it right: We cannot tax and pave our way out of traffic congestion. But he gets the other half woefully wrong. The solution is not giving local governments additional power to halt development projects on the grounds that they would “overwhelm nearby roads,” as Jenkins puts it. Very rarely does a major developer try to develop a tract of land where the transportation infrastructure is obviously inadequate unless he has concrete plans for fixing the problem. No one will buy his houses otherwise. The problem tends to be with smaller projects — builders who want to add just one more subdivision to a road that’s already pushing the limit.

Giving local governments the power to reject projects on the basis of traffic impact will give them the power to reject virtually any project they don’t like. But it won’t stop growth. It will only relocate growth to more remote jurisdictions where local traffic congestions aren’t as bad … yet. While this provision may provide relief locally, it will only aggravate problems regionally. Developers will find land in ever more remote locales to build their subdivisions, and homebuyers will buy those homes for a lack of an alternative. When they commute to work, they will crowd onto the same limited number of transportation arteries. In sum, Kaine’s plan will only relocate traffic congestion. But people will be forced to driver longer distances in the bargain.

The problem isn’t growth. It’s the pattern of growth — the scattered, disconnected, low-density growth that has prevailed in Virginia over the past 50 years. Tim Kaine’s plan would do nothing to change the pattern growth. Indeed, Kaine’s proposal would make growth even more scattered and more disconnected. The proposal is a very, very bad idea — so bad that it overwhelms the positive aspects of what had been a respectable transportation plan. Unless Kaine reverses his stand I cannot vote for him.

Kilgore isn’t showing the kind of leadership I’d like to see on taxes and transportation, but at least his plank won’t make matters visibly worse. Unless he commits a serious gaffe — a possibility not to be dismissed — he’s got my vote.

Notguyincognito: “Jerry was evasive, smarmy and evasive again. Kaine clearly had more zingers, better lines, and just plain looked more like a governor than Kilgore. … Jerry did not present a case as to why people should vote for him, instead just saying why they should NOT vote for Kaine”

Commonwealth Conservative: “Jerry Kilgore took a very big step toward being elected Governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia. … The more I reflect, the more I believe that this evening was a home run for Jerry Kilgore.”

Bearingdrift: “Win for Kaine, if he wanted Kilgore to come off as liberal. … Win for Kaine, if he wanted Kilgore to come off as negative. My final analysis, likely a win for Kilgore as he showed that he can answer the mail.”

Raising Kaine: “Kaine kicked Kilgore butt. … Besides being vague, evasive, and inaccurate, Kilgore was pretty much all negative, all the time.”

750 Volts: “Kaine kicked Kilgore butt. … Tim Kaine was the only candidate offering a positive message, as opposed to Jerry Kilgore, who wouldn’t pledge to keep half of his TV ads positive. Kilgore, dodged, bobbed and weaved.”

One Man’s Trash: “Kilgore looked stiff and uncomfortable. He fumbled and stumbled and, honestly, looked like he’d give his right arm to be somewhere else. Kaine. Good lord… what’s with that eyebrow? And the make-up… too much rouge on the cheekbones, tiger.”

Commonwealth Watch: “Neither Virginia gubernatorial candidate will win the Daniel Webster Orator of the Year Award, but tonight’s debate was decent. … I flipped between the debate and the Redskins game. … A non-event.”

Criesinthenight: “Does anyone else find Kaine’s raised eyebrow very, very annoying? … On radio Kaine would’ve carried the day, but his consistent breaking of the time limit (which clearly ticked off Sabato), eyebrow, and general body language goes against him. Victory Kilgore, but only slightly.”

Sic Semper Tyrannis: “Tim Kaine’s record is atrocious. … If Kaine cannot convince the voters that he is Mark Warner Jr., he will lose. I do not think he did an effective job of doing so tonight…. I was disappointed with [Kilgore’s] performance from a stylistic perspective. Kilgore fumbled over his words….”

Not Larry Sabato (Virginia 2005 Elections): “Totally missed the debate tonight, watching the Redskins game.”

There you have it, folks! That’s all we could find on the blogosphere early this morning. … Which makes me think, I sure miss Will Vehrs. Will, come back. The blogosphere needs you, man!

If anyone relished the prospect of Tim Kaine chewing up Jerry Kilgore in the televised campaign debate tonight, they were sorely disappointed. Kilgore stumbled over a few words early on, and he relied a bit more upon canned phrases than Kaine, but he otherwise held his own. Judging the debate on style points, I would have given Kaine an 8 and Kilgore a 7. Not enough to make a difference. Judging the debate on substance, neither candidate committed a gaffe, and neither had a “gotcha” moment. Given the Kilgore camp’s pre-debate fears that their candidate would have his booty handed to him on statewide television, I imagine there are a lot of people heaving a sigh of relief.

Both candidates elaborated upon themes already established in their campaigns. Kaine emphasized his role as a partner of Gov. Mark R. Warner in making tough budget decisions, protecting the state’s AAA bond rating and increasing spending on education. He painted Kilgore as an obstructionist opposed to raising taxes and otherwise shoring up state finances.

Kilgore painted Kaine as a tax-and-spend liberal who would raise taxes again, and, to counter Kaine’s appeal on educational issues, repeatedly tarred him for his record as mayor of Richmond, with its second worst-performing school district in the state.

Kaine’s best moment: When questioned about his personal opposition to the death penalty and abortion, Kaine responded: “I’m Catholic. There’s never been a Catholic governor. I’m against the death penalty and abortion. I’m not going to change my religion to get elected. But I’ll swear to uphold the law.” Kaine did a good job of neutralizing the issue.

Kilgore’s best moment: Responding to Kaine’s protestations that he’s cut a variety of taxes, Kilgore responded: “The test is not whether you’ve cut a tax here or there, but what has happened to the overall tax burden.” The fact is, Kaine increased the overall tax burden for Richmonders when he was mayor and for Virginians while he was Lieutenant Governor.

I don’t see either candidate getting much traction from the debate. The race for governor will go down to the wire, with the results determined largely by television ads and get-out-the-vote efforts.

Richmond’s “Main Street” business establishment once dominated political campaign finance in Virginia. Then, in the 1990s, Northern Virginia’s development and technology industries usurped Richmond’s role. Northern Virginians still have “more money than God,” as the saying goes — small donors are kicking in substantial sums — but the region’s tech tycoons and mega-developers are, for the most part, sitting this election out. Most of the big bucks donations are coming from downstate.

Let’s take a look at where the money is coming from (according to the Virginia Public Access Project):

Tim Kaine: $3.6 million comes from Central Virginia and $3.6 million from Northern Virginia. But remember, between the bigger population and higher incomes, there’s about twice as much money in Northern Virginia as in Richmond. Of the Top 25 donors, only Suzann Matthews, Janice Brandt, Gerald Halpin, Scott Kaprowisz and the Granite Group hail from the Northern Virginia metro area. Big donors from the Richmond region include Austin Ligon, Cobb Office Products, Stuart Siegel, William Jefferson, Altria, Dominion, Gray Fenchuk and Jim Ukrop.

Jerry Kilgore. Kilgore has received $3.5 million in donations from Northern Virginia vs. $2.9 million from Central Virginia. But among the Top 25 donors, only one business or individual (as opposed to a PAC or fund) originates from Northern Virginia: Mark Kington, a venture capitalist and Mark Warner’s old business partner. By contrast, Kilgore pulls from “Main Street” even thought it’s Kaine’s home town. Donors include Richard Sharpe, Altria, Dominion, and Atack Properties. And he’s raised a wad from his chums in far Southwest Virginia: John Gregory, Alpha Natural Resources, Marvin Gilliam and SJ Strategic Investments. Who even knew that kind of money could be found in SW Virginia?

Russ Potts. As a Northern Virginia regional candidate, Potts is an anomaly. He draws almost exclusively from Winchester and Northern Virginia. From Hampton Roads he’s picked up a grand total of… $5,300. From Central Virginia… $2,600. Not a single one of his Top 25 donors comes from downstate.

Now that Sen. Russell Potts has lost his desperate bid to be included in the gubernatorial campaign’s only debate to be televised statewide, it’s all downhill for the Winchester maverick. As one shrewd observer of the campaign suggested to me, the smart money in the tax-and-build lobby is switching its support to Jerry Kilgore, as evidenced by Kilgore’s recent endorsement by the Fairfax Chamber of Commerce.

Potts carried water for the tax-and-build advocates in the business community, promoting his plan to raise taxes for transportation by some $2 billion a year. But his campaign never ignited. He’s slipping back into irrelevance in the polls, and he’s locked out of the debate, which was his last chance to connect with voters. According to this interpretation, the tax-and-build crowd wanted to throw its support to a winner and picked Kilgore because he was the least of two evils.

Although Kaine has proven that he’s not averse to increasing taxes, he also says Virginia’s transportation system is broken and needs to be fixed before pouring more money into it. As Kaine says on his website, referring to the 2002 referendum in which Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads voters rejected local tax increases for roads projects, citizens “did not trust that state and local leaders, even with additional resources, could solve our transportation problems planning and building roads the same way we always have. The message was crystal clear—don’t throw money at a broken system. Fix the system.”

The tax-and-spend lobby doesn’t want to wait to fix the system. It wants mo’ money now! Kilgore doesn’t give them what they want, but he’ll give them more than Kaine: injecting more money into transportation by applying Virginia’s substantial budget surpluses to funding transportation projects, vigorously pursuing public-private partnerships and giving taxing powers to transportation regional authorities. Kilgore would make the Road Gang sweat for its money, but he’s put more on the table than Kaine.

If this interpretation is right, Potts might as well hang it up. Virginia’s once-fawning press — and the public — will focus on the two lead horses as the race comes down to the wire.

The Richmond Times-Dispatch has hired a new executive editor — 59-year-old Glenn Proctor, an associated editor of the Star-Ledger in Newark, N.J. — to replace William H. Millsaps Jr., who has run the paper for 11 years. Publisher Thomas A. Silvestri described Proctor as “a firebrand on behalf of excellence in journalism.” (See story.)

Proctor is an ex-Marine, a seasoned newsman and… an African-American. As Michael Paul Williams, the T-D’s liberal black columnist observed, “This qualifies as a … seminal event not just in the history of this publication, but in a community where few corporate posts of this magnitude are held by people of color.”

Added Williams: “The uniform reaction to the news from other members of the ‘Caucus’ — the web of black journalists who once plied their trade here before moving on — was a collective ‘wow!’ Only the number of exclamation points varied.”

I interpret the Proctor appointment as consistent with Publisher Silvestri’s make-over of the T-D as a stronger force in the community. First we saw Silvestri’s “public square” initiative, promising a greater involvement in the community, accompanied by a discernible shift in the editorial pages in the treatment of local issues. Now we see the appointment of a forceful black executive editor whose predecessors 50 years ago defended massive resistance to integration.

If Proctor shares the shop-worn, blacks-as-victims narrative of Williams’ column, his relationship with Richmond could be a very rocky one. But I’m hoping that won’t be the case. I expect that Proctor will reflect the can-do ethic of the Marines he sprang from. In which case, we can all say, Welcome to Richmond!

See the news release below.

I blogged before that the only letter I’ve written to Sen Allen was last year when he made his first wrong vote on making homosexuals a protected class of persons.

As I said, I got a long, snippy letter from his staff. I didn’t mention that to him at a fund-raiser in Newport News a few months ago. But, then I didn’t know about this written memo of his.

He will vote for the crime bill, because golly gee its a crime bill with a bad amendment. That would be more plausible if he would work in public to rescind the memo.

This is not good.

FPN NEWS CONTACT: Joe Glover – 434-846-0500

Senator urged to keep promise vs. hate crimes – – this time

George Allen broke “no sexual orientation” pledge, but has a chance to get it right now

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(FOREST, VA) – The leader of a Virginia-based pro-family organization is urging U.S. Senator George Allen (R-VA) to honor a written campaign promise to oppose adding “sexual orientation” to the list of federal “hate crimes.”

“George Allen broke his promise to not support adding “sexual orientation” to the federal list of hate crimes last year. We’re asking him not to break that promise again now,” said Family Policy Network (FPN) president Joe Glover in a written statement.

On October 27, just days before his election to the Senate in 2000, then-candidate Allen promised to oppose hate crimes designation for homosexuals, in exchange for a guarantee from conservative leaders to drop the issue – rather than publicly criticize his prior statements in support of such legislation.

Allen’s promise, which was written on “Allen 2000″ campaign stationary, was signed by the candidate himself. The letter (see below) clearly states that, if elected, Allen would not support adding sexual orientation to the list of federal hate crimes “or any other similar legislation.” The letter also expresses Allen’s belief that such legislation would “have the effect of elevating sexual orientation to civil rights status,” which he promised he would not do.

Also in the letter, Allen added that he had “always been an advocate for increased penalties on anyone who commits a violent crime” in an apparent attempt to justify his previous willingness to support the hate crimes designation for sexual orientation.

“That might make a good sound bite,” Glover said, “but it doesn’t explain why killing grandma for the money in her purse should be any less a crime than killing someone else for engaging in same-sex sodomy.”

Allen broke the promise in June of 2004 when he helped pass a Senate bill to add “sexual orientation” to the list of federal hate crimes (see story). The legislation eventually expired because Republican leaders never scheduled a vote in the House of Representatives. This year, however, the House has already passed the language. It will now be considered by the Senate.

Glover says, “This time, we’re asking Senator Allen to remember his promise. If he doesn’t, we won’t let him forget it.”

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RELATED INFORMATION:

Letter from George Allen, promising not to support adding “sexual orientation” to hate crimes:

See the letter online at this location:

http://va.familypolicy.net/Allen_vs_HC.gif

From today’s Fredericksburg Free Lance-Star:

“Manassas has become the first city in America where every family can access high-speed Internet service simply by plugging into a common electrical wall socket. … The technology being put to use in Manassas is called broadband over power line (BPL) and it carries data over the city’s electrical grid. … Customers are provided with a modem to plug into their home electrical sockets.”

The service costs $28.95 per month — less than what the cable and DSL typically costs. Where the technology could prove to be really significant is in rural areas where broadband service doesn’t exist at all. Said Joseph E. Gerus, CEO of Communications Technologies Inc. , the Chantilly telecommunications company involved with the project: “What we are announcing today in Manassas is something that we could be rolling out in a year or two in literally scores of communities across the United States.”

Presumably, they’re paying attention down in Southside, where installing a broadband network is a high priority — and public money is available to fund it. The Tobacco Indemnification and Community Revitalization Commission, underwritten by tobacco settlement funds, is committing $21 million to bring broadband to six new communities: Dinwiddie, Appomattox, Bedford, South Hill, Martinsville and Danville. (See article in the Petersburg Progress-Index.)

They aren’t using the Manassas technology in Southside, but I’m wondering if Broadband Over Power Line might drive down the cost of extending broadband access beyond the mill-town population clusters to dispersed residents in the countryside. I’d bet there are a number of rural electrical cooperatives that would love to diversify their revenue stream.

The Library of Virginia has selected the Bacon’s Rebellion blog “for inclusion in its historic collection of Internet materials” relating to Virginia’s 2005 state-wide elections for governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general.

According to an e-mail I received from Kathy Jordan, electronic resources manager:

The Library will engage in the collection of content from your Web site at regular intervals from September through the election. The Library will make this collection available to researchers onsite in the Library’s reading room. After the election, the content of the site will become part of the Library’s archival collection and continue to be available as an historical record of public opinion.

Naturally, we’re flattered that the Library of Virginia would deem Bacon’s Rebellion worthy of preservation for posterity. I fully expect that the Library will do the same for many of the Commonwealth’s other excellent blogs.

What’s truly significant is not the selection of this or that blog but the fact that the Library of Virginia even has an electronic resources manager whose job is to archive electronic content. Think about that! Some future historian will delve into our blogs for insight into the thinking of everyday people. We will yield a bounty of authenticity that researchers could never find in the newspapers or broadcast video files.

So, be careful what you post on the Rebellion! Not only will we think you’re a knucklehead, historians a hundred years from now could conclude that you’re a knucklehead, too!

The debate over what is a tax increase has raged on since the primary. Given, when a local governing body votes to raise the real estate tax rate, it is a tax increase. Previously debated: If a local governing body fails to lower the rate sufficient to overcome assessment increases, is that a tax increase? And now comes this question from Chesterfield County, as reported today in the Richmond TD. When a local governing body takes steps that raise assessments, is that a tax increase?

I say yes. There is no question the value of my home here in Chesterfield will rise or fall based on the going price for comparable new homes — some of them very near by. When the price of those new homes rises to cover this higher proffer, eventually the value of existing homes will rise as well. With all due respect to the powers that be in Chesterfield, it is insulting to me for them to deny something that a freshman in Econ 101 can figure out. If proffers and impact fees only produced the direct revenue and no indirect revenue, I’m not sure so many localities would be so eager to adopt them. And now that the local homebuilders have made an effort to teach a little econ to the taxpayers in existing home, at least we can have an honest discussion.

I’ve plugged one of Tim Kaine’s ads and one of Russ Potts’ ads. Now I’ve finally come across a Jerry Kilgore ad that I really like. Just call me a sucker for anything that makes me laugh.

If you’ve ever wondered what Jerry’s twin brother Terry looks like, you’ll see him here. Terry’s a dead ringer for his brother. Even sounds just like him. If they sent Terry out on the campaign trail, no one could even tell the difference. Just think of it: Two Jerry Kilgores could attend twice as many events, shake twice as many hands and kiss twice as many babies. Tim Kaine wouldn’t stand a chance. View ad here.

Well, Labor Day has come and gone, and it still doesn’t look like the electorate is getting excited about Virginia’s gubernatorial campaign. According to a story in the Richmond Times-Dispatch this morning, with a deadline looming, registrars in the Richmond area are reporting a diminished number of people signing up to vote.

Wrote Tyler Whitley: “Mark Coakley, registrar in Henrico County, said about 50 people have come by the county government complex to register in person. Another 250 have sought absentee ballots, far under the total from last year, he said.” The City of Richmond had received 88 applications, but “20 plus” were rejected because they were inaccurate. Wow, only 100 new voters in jurisdictions with a combined population of 450,000. You can’t get much more apathetic than that.

Robert D. Holsworth, chair of the government and public affairs department at VCU, noted that no defining issues have emerged from the campaign. That impression is backed up by a recent Rasmussen poll showing that voters were most interested in bread-and-butter issues, while candidates are focusing largely on the cultural wedge issues.

If turnout looks like it will be exceptionally low, expect the candidates to abandon their appeal to uncommitted moderate voters and start riling up their motivated base.

My Democratic friends have been telling me for so long now that Jerry Kilgore’s “hick” accent would turn off sophisticated Northern Virginia voters that I started believing them. So it comes as a surprise to see that the Northern Virginia Technology Council’s political action committee has endorsed Kilgore for governor. I blow off most endorsements as either meaningless or predictable. But the TechPAC announcement, which comes at a time that Kilgore’s lead in the polls has shriveled to nothing, could give him a significant lift in the final weeks of the campaign.

States the Kilgore campaign press release:

“After careful deliberation, NVTC TechPAC determined that Jerry Kilgore is the better choice when it comes to sustaining and growing Northern Virginia’s vibrant technology industry, and he takes stronger positions on several of our key issues,” said John Backus, Chairman of TechPAC and Managing Director of Draper Atlantic. “Kilgore has a record of substantial achievement on issues important to our industry including the strengthening of Virginia’s anti-spam and anti-phishing laws, initiatives he championed as Attorney General.”

While Attorney General, Kilgore successfully pushed for the nation’s toughest anti-Spam law and used it to obtain the first-ever felony Spam conviction in the United States. Additionally, he improved the computer crimes statutes to make “phishing” – using e-mail to lure victims into providing personal information – a crime. Kilgore also toughened laws against using computers for child pornography. He was the first Attorney General to appoint a Deputy Attorney General to specialize in technology issues.

The Oct. 3, 2005, edition of Bacon’s Rebellion is now online. In addition to our usual keen political insight, we offer two perspectives on the racial turmoil at the University of Virginia:

UVa Under Siege — from Within
Racial incidents at the University of Virginia last August were all too real. But the administration’s over-reaction needlessly fed black students’ fears and alienation.
by James A. Bacon

Separate but Equal at UVa
The University of Virginia must work to overcome Virginia’s legacy of discrimination — but supporting the self-segregation of black students is not the way to do it.
by Conaway Haskins

No, I’m not talking about the under-representation of sheep in Blacksburg, as opposed to cows and ducks.

Virginia Tech will hire a “multi-cultural-program” director and reorganize several offices to help improve “campus diversity,” the Associated Press reports. The move comes in response to an eight percent decline in applications from black high school students since 2001. Campus race relations have been tinged, the story notes, by a series of incidents over the years, including one last year in which someone scrawled “threatening messages” on the door of the local chapter of the NAACP.

I have some questions: What is the purpose of “campus diversity?” Presumably, the goal is to make African-Americans feel more comfortable on campus in the hopes that more will apply and decide to stay. How, then, does one go about achieving that goal? Does making a fetish of “diversity” and the differences between people help African-Americans blend in? Does the systematic cultivation of group identity encourage whites (and others) to interact with African-Americans on a color-blind basis as individuals?

We can look to the University of Virginia to see what “diversity” has wrought. Conaway Haskins, publisher of the South of the James blog, and I will bring different perspectives — one black, one white — to the state of diversity at UVa in Monday’s edition of Bacon’s Rebellion.