Bacon's Rebellion

In a press conference two weeks ago, Del. David Albo, R-Springfield, brushed up against the most important question of the entire Rail-to-Dulles debate, but he didn’t really pursue it: Could the $4 billion needed to build the Rail-to-Dulles extension of the Metro buy more congestion relief if it were spent differently?

What combination of congestion-priced HOT lane tolls, Bus Rapid Transit operations, intelligent transportation systems, telework incentives and other alternatives could be put into place for $4 billion? How much congestion could those alternatives mitigate? The Metro extension is projected to serve only 48,000 passengers along the entire route. An aggressive telework campaign could get more than 48,000 passengers off Northern Virginia roads for a fraction of that price!

Thinking even more outside the box, how far would a $4 billion investment go if it were combined with an intelligent re-thinking of Northern Virginia land use policies?

This question is fundamental, but the House leadership chose not to make it an issue. House Speaker Howell has accepted the goal of completing the Dulles-to-Rail extension, and he’s accepted the idea of dedicating revenue from the Dulles Toll Road to help pay for it. As I see it, his argument with Gov. Timothy M. Kaine isn’t so much how to spend that money, but who should control the spending.

I’ve finally found the time to read carefully through the criticisms leveled by House Speaker William Howell, R-Stafford, and Del. David Albo, R-Springfield, against Gov. Timothy M. Kaine’s Rail-to-Dulles solution. After nearly two weeks, a number of the charges still hold water. Here is how I would rephrase their concerns:

1. The mission of the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority does not align with the interests of the Commonwealth of Virginia. The MWAA priority is to improve transportation access to Dulles Airport. The Commonwealth has a number of priorities, which include optimizing land use around Metro stations, minimizing the tax burden on citizens, and minimizing tolls for commuters. Whose interests will be served by this transfer of authority?
2. The MWAA board is not accountable to the citizens of Virginia; a minority of board members are appointed by the Governor. (See “Railroad the Rail to Dulles Project.”) Whose interests will board members feel obligated to represent — the airport authority’s or the Commonwealth’s?
3. Firms competing for the Dulles Toll Road concession have proposed upgrading the toll road, including a $300 million of four lanes of congestion-priced HOT lanes. There is no assurance that the MWAA will fund that improvement instead of funneling every dime of toll revenue into Metro.
4. The Kaine plan forfeits a $500 million up-front cash payment under one of the Dulles Toll Road proposals, which could be applied to Metro or other transportation improvements.
5. There has been no open debate. We’re talking about $4 billion here — real money, even by the standards of Virginia’s ever-escalating budget. The Governor needs to lay out his case to the public, not simply count on his communications staff to answer inquiries from a dilatory press corps.

Update: Gov. Kaine has announced the formation of an advisory committee yesterday “to provide input” on the MWAA’s oversight of the Dulles Toll Road and the Rail-to-Dulles extension, according to this morning’s Washington Post. Kaine spokesman Kevin Hall said the authority did not object to giving local officials “a voice” on toll increases and other decisions on which the authority has the final say, under the agreement.

Somehow, I don’t think critics will find that having “input” and “a voice” will be as reassuring as having the “final say.”

Who is that caped man — the one twirling his handlebar moustache and emitting an evil laugh, mwa ha ha ha ha – at the suffering of Virginia commuters?

Why, it’s arch fiend William Howell — or at least the cartoon image of the House Speaker as penned by the editorialists at the Washington Post.

“To all appearances,” the Post writes, “Mr. Howell cares not a whit for Northern Virginia’s transportation nightmare.” He has “thumbed his nose” at federal funding for Metro, and has mindlessly “attacked” the Governor’s proposals to turn the Rail-to-Dulles project over to the unelected Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority. “In short, when Northern Virginia commuters, lawmakers and business leaders speak of a transportation crisis, their pleas fall on Mr. Howell’s deaf ears.”

I would respond this way: To all appearances, the Washington Post cares not a whit for either Northern Virginia’s commuters or its taxpayers. Its editorial writers want to raise taxes to perpetuate the same Business As Usual transportation and land use practices that have landed Northern Virginia in its current unsustainable predicament – tax and build, tax and build.

Where Howell is at least flexible enough to explore alternatives for improving mobility and access, the Washington Post is stuck on the same tired nostrums of the 1980s. To all appearances, its editorial writers have learned absolutely nothing in the past 20 years. To all appearances, they have shown absolutely no curiosity about any remedy not spoon fed to them by the tax-and-build lobby.

It’s not as if the Post has weighed the alternatives — building balanced communities, improving neighborhood connectivity, promoting telework, managing transportation demand, promoting shared ridership, implementing intelligent transportation systems, outsourcing maintenance — and found them wanting. The Post hasn’t evinced the slightest awareness that such alternatives even exist.

In addition to re-examining its sanctimonious attitude, the Post editorial writer might stop thumbing his nose at the facts. “Never mind,” he sneers, “that Virginia has not raised a new dime for transportation in 20 years.” Not one dime? Apparently, some $2 billion in revenues allocated from General Funds surpluses (in the current budget and proposed for the next) counts for nothing.

Gov. Timothy M. Kaine’s decision to turn control of the Rail-to-Dulles project over to the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority is catching ack-ack fire from the Governor’s friends in the conservation community. Stewart Schwartz, executive director of the Coalition for Smarter Growth, raises three weighty objections:

1. “MWAA would be less accountable to the public because it is appointed and not elected.” The board could raise tolls and exercise eminent domain without accountability to voters. (See “Who Runs the MWAA?” Only five of 13 board members are appointed by Virginia’s governor.)
2. “MWAA lacks experience in local land use and urban design.” The great challenge in successfully extending Metro to Dulles is integrating the Metro stations with local land use. Fairfax County’s authority and role in the project are not spelled out clearly.
3. The MWAA’s primary interest is extending rail to Dulles Airport as soon as possible. That priority is not necessarily tops for Northern Virginia citizens, who have competing interests such as keeping a lid on taxes and tolls, and creating more liveable, balanced communities around the Metro stops.

Democracy is a messy business. But it beats handing over authority to an unaccountable board with its own institutional interests. If Gov. Kaine’s sole purpose is completing Rail-to-Dulles as quickly as possible, his decision may be a good one. If his purpose is finding a balance that works for citizens, his decision was questionable indeed.

Peter Galuszka has filed a Road to Ruin story about the dispute over the use of tax credits as an incentive for landowners to create conservation easements. The environmental community defends the tax credits as one of the most cost-effective tools available for protecting valuable open space, viewsheds, watersheds, habitat for endangered species, and properties of historical value. Conservation easements cost a fraction of buying land outright, and they don’t trample on property rights.

On the other hand, there are legitimate issues associated with the tax credits. The liability to the state has soared, reaching $130 million in 2004. And the program, which is little policed, is subject to abuse and manipulation by unscrupulous landowners. Despite their disagreements, it appears that the Senate and the House of Delegates are groping toward a reform of the program and a compromise that would cap the amount of tax credits granted in any one year.

As an aside to readers who love inside political baseball, the article provides details on the $28 million in tax credits claimed by the Silver Companies, developer of the Celebrate Virginia project in Fredericksburg. From what we hear, Sen. John Chichester, a moving force behind the tax credit crack-down, is not a big fan of Silver Companies developments, which have unalterably changed the face of Fredericksburg — many would say for the worse.

A final observation, filed in the “Irony” folder: the Silver Companies are the prime driver of the kind of dysfunctional settlement patterns in the Fredericksburg area that the conservationists are so opposed to.

Ever vigilant against discrimination, “Dateline NBC” has been on the prowl for anti-Muslim, anti-foreigner bias in the United States. NBC sent Muslim-looking men to a NASCAR race in that bastion of white, southern redneck bigotry, Martinsville, Va., along with a camera crew to film fan reactions. Sadly for NBC, which spent all that money for naught, no one bothered the Muslims.

My hunch is that southern white males are less bigoted in their attitude towards foreigners than the snooty Northeastern liberals are toward southern white males. Hey, NBC, here’s an idea, why don’t you recruit a group of Goobers, send them to the Upper East Side of Manhattan, equip them with hidden cameras, and see how they get treated?

The Powerline blog offers a decent wrap-up of the story with useful links.

Identity theft can do more than screw up your credit rating. If you work in the IT field and require security clearances, it can ruin your career. And oblivious local law enforcement authorities can make the problem worse.

According to a story released by PRWeb, a certain Thaddeus Jones, “a seasoned network engineering and information technology project manager,” was fired from his job at the Pentagon and his top security clearance stripped because someone stole his identity and was charged with three felonies under that identity. He has been unable to find steady employment in his field since — the same incident continually pops up in his background checks.

Apparently, the person who stole his identity was arrested and charged with these felonies in Richmond in 2004 but the charges were later dismissed. The imposter had no picture identification and law enforcement authorities never attempted to trace his fingerprints to confirm that he was who he said he was. Concludes the author:

A man’s life has not only been ruined by a criminal with obviously nothing to lose, but it has also been ruined by a law enforcement and judicial system that failed to initiate due diligence by not confirming one’s identity before charging them with a felony crime. There has to be some legislation in place to force law enforcement agencies to confirm identity of suspects prior to officially charging them with a crime. This will prevent this from happening to anyone else. If not, then there need to be.

Back in CA on business. Look what I’m missing at home.

From today’s Daily Press by Matt Sabo
POQUOSON — Residents made it clear to city staff and council members Tuesday night that the city’s waterfront should be off-limits to multifamily housing.

A crowd approaching 150 (out of a population of 12,000)- many of them standing along walls -attended an informational meeting on proposed planning districts that would allow mixed-use developments that could include commercial, retail and high-density housing.

The proposed districts are controversial because residents say they would detract from the quality of life in Poquoson, bringing pricey condominiums to a city made up almost entirely of single-family homes on large lots.

City Administrator Charlie Burgess served as moderator, giving a brief overview of the proposed districts at the end of Browns Neck, Messick and Rens roads. The Poquoson City Council will hold a public hearing on the districts at 7 p.m. Monday.

The three proposed districts comprise a total of 50 acres. As many as 16 residential units would be allowed per acre – up from the current range of 1.63 to 2.42 units per acre in the three areas.

Residents were politely persistent in their opposition to the proposed districts.

“Everybody in this room is here, I guarantee it, because they are worried about it,” said Dave Kenneally.

He also asked for a show of hands of people who favored the districts. One man raised his hand.Then he asked for a show of hands of people opposed to the districts. Everyone else raised a hand.

Residents also wanted to know why the city is considering allowing the districts in areas that are zoned for either a commercial or a residential use.

Burgess said it’s not so the city has new sources of tax revenues. It’s also not because a developer has approached the city with a project proposal, although it’s inevitable, he said.

“Whether we like it or not, the requests are going to come at some time,” Burgess said.

“Turn ’em down,” said Lauren Roche. “That’s not why we live here.

“The idea of up to 16 townhouses or condominiums per acre at Messick Point – stretching up to 45 feet high – bothered waterman Sonny Insley.

Especially when crabbing season comes and watermen head out from Messick Point.”It seems to me that at 3 o’clock when you get 20 boys firing up the diesels to go crabbing, you’re going to have a conflict with the townhomes,” he said. “And we know who’s going to lose that battle.”

Other residents said the city should undertake an analysis of what it would cost Poquoson in services – for new roads and more schoolchildren, for example – and how the districts would affect the environment before approving them.

So, where is the dysfunctional living pattern? There are two roads out of town (off the peninsula on The Peninsula). One main shopping road. That’s it.

Double-digit increases in the prices of cement, asphalt and diesel fuel will cost the Virginia Department of Transportation an additional $180 million this year for maintenance and construction projects, reports the Virginian-Pilot. “The higher costs are forcing VDOT managers in Hampton Roads to switch to cheaper, less durable asphalt for some paving work planned this spring.”

Said Jeffrey C. Southard, executive vice president of the Virginia Transportation Construction Alliance: “In the last two years, we’ve seen construction costs go up unlike anything we’ve seen in the last 50 years.”

There are two possible ways to respond. The first is to continue Business As Usual, refusing to alter Virginia’s practice of adding new road capacity to meet demand and raising taxes to pay the escalating bills for raw material. The second is to seek alternatives to the tax-and-build philosophy.

Gov. Timothy M. Kaine said in his campaign that Virginia can’t pave its way out of traffic congestion. Now it looks like Virginia might even not be able to pave over its potholes. But the Governor is expending his political capital in support of a Business As Usual transportation policy. Go figure.

Students at the University of Virginia once upheld the tenets of the Honor Code as an absolute ideal. Lying, cheating and stealing were impermissable behaviors… no exceptions. The penalty was expulsion. But those high standards are being corroded by moral relativism, situational ethics and rank opportunism.

An introduction to a story in The University of Virginia Magazine starts this way:

Warning to hard-core U.Va. traditionalists: What follows may upset you. Simply put, the University is changing—and has been for decades. So, too, is the Honor System.

While polls find that students endorse an honor system in concept, they appear less willing to hold each other accountable, preferring to leave the heavy lifting to an increasingly skeptical faculty. Meanwhile, fueled in part by a high-profile public trial last fall, critics charge that students’ unwillingness to impose the single sanction—permanent expulsion—allows some guilty students to go unpunished. Clearly, U.Va.’s Honor System is in danger of suffering irreparable damage.

In a society that does not uphold honor and integrity as supreme ideals, lies, dishonesty and corruption are sure to follow. Nowhere is this trend more evident than in electoral politics. The disgraceful news out of Washington, D.C., speaks for itself. But Virginia is not immune. The Old Dominion has become a place where candidates for high office routinely vow not to raise taxes then turn around when they get elected and raise them…. And no one, not even the Fourth Estate, the so-called guardian of the public trust, holds them to account. We get the politics we deserve.

The following comment was deposited at the end of the “THERE IS STILL A CHANCE” post below. That post sketches out a potential shared-vehicle system to serve the National Capital Subregion. The comment was made by the well-known scholar and transportation expert “anonymous.”

“For a long time the assumption has been that offering more public transit service options would reduce traffic congestion. But despite the more than $300 billion in taxpayer money spent to expand the quantity and quality of public transit over the last four decades, its share of travel has declined. While the number of transit passenger-miles has risen slightly over this period, its share of urban travel has decreased.”

Sage sounding comments such as this are made by those who mistakenly believe that mobility and access can be provided to 21st century human settlement patterns by expanding roadways for private-vehicles. Almost all these statements are paid for directly or indirectly by those who profit from Business-As-Usual.

The sponsors of lobby groups and some “think tanks” and university “research centers” believe they would lose economic advantage from the evolution of functional human settlement patterns and efficient mobility and access systems that could effectively serve these patterns of urban land use.

What statements like this really demonstrate is the profound Geographic Illiteracy of the poster, anonymous or not. See “Geographic Illiteracy” and “The Myths That Blind Us” at db4.dev.baconsrebellion.com

Here are some Antidotes for the misconceptions in this comment:

The root cause of “traffic congestion” is dysfunctional human settlement patterns. No transport system can effectively or efficiently serve scattered urban land uses in large New Urban Regions, period. See “Spinning Data, Spinning Wheels” and “Regional Rigor Mortis” at db4.dev.baconsrebellion.com

The high cost of contemporary shared-vehicle systems is in large part cause by imbalanced system loading. (E.g. for METRO, most of the trains leave most of the stations, most of the time, essentially empty.) Some of this is due to inept management but most of it is due to dysfunctional human settlement patterns in the shared-vehicle station areas. See the “METRO WEST – 22 YEARS TOO LATE” post on this Blog (28 March 2006 now archived) and “It Is Time to Fundamentally Rethink METRO” at db4.dev.baconsrebellion.com

The reason that ridership of shared-vehicle systems has not increased faster is that the grossly subsidized scatteration of urban development cannot be served even by heavily subsidized shared-vehicle systems.

Dysfunctional settlement patterns mean that most citizens who need to travel have no choice but to resort to a private-vehicle. See Jim Bacon’s current column on Pod People at db4.dev.baconsrebellion.com

Urban citizens of Virginia (many of them Pod People) do not love their cars any more than urban Bavarians, they just do not have the choices which citizens of most First World New Urban Regions enjoy. Again this is due to settlement patterns that prevent citizens from meeting life’s needs without resorting to any vehicle or conveniently using shared vehicles. Those who choose to drive can do so until gasoline and its substitutes become too expensive.

Jim Bacon has recently noted government actions that thwart competition in the provision of shared vehicles. Eliminating these barriers will help.

In the long run there must be New Urban Region-wide (and Urban Support Region-wide) settlement patterns that can be served by functional transport systems. The backbone of those system will be a public, shared vehicle system supported by many integrated sub-systems including ones that support private-vehicles.

Recent applications of 21st Century Shared-Vehicle Systems (CSVS21s) demonstrate that New Urban Regions with functional human settlement patterns can be served effectively and efficiently.*

How are functional human settlement patterns achieved? Fairly allocate location-variable costs of all goods and services and let the market do the rest.

How do citizens achieve the Fundamental Change in settlement patterns and the Fundamental Change in governance structure necessary to fairly allocate location-variable costs of goods and services and replace the current system of subsidies and pork barrel transport?

In a democracy with a market economy the only answer is better educated citizens who vote and buy based on their enlightened self-interest.

PROPERTY DYNAMICS coming to an Alpha Neighborhood near you soon.

*Note: CSVS21 systems are some times called Advanced Rapid Transit (ART) or Personal Rapid Transit (PRT) and, in some cases (where the system capacity matches demand) Bus Rapid Transit (BRT). Nineteenth century and early 20th century systems like “heavy rail” (aka, METRO), “light rail,” “commuter rail” and conventional “bus” have useful applications but are not as well suited to contemporary needs as contemporary systems.

On the subject of neighborhoods and connectivity… Thanks to Jeremy Hinton for pointing to the Kecoughtan Road Master Plan for revitalizing the Kecoughtan neighborhood, his old stomping grounds near downtown Hampton.

According to the analysis by Urban Design Associates, the residential component of the neighborhood is still sound. But the commercial strip along Kecoughtan Road, which once served as a major transportation artery, has fallen on hard times as retail activity moved to regional shopping venues elsewhere. The Corridor Plan envisions shrinking and repositioning the retail sector in order to build a more balanced, better connected, more pedestrian-friendly neighborhood that takes better advantage of its waterfront.

The study lists six “guiding principles” that should frame public and private investment in the corridor:

1. Redefine the Kecoughtan Road Corridor primarily as a residential boulevard and neighborhood main street which will present an appropriate front door to the neighborhoods.

2. Create memorable places and events along the length of the Corridor which help reinforce the unique identity and history of the various neighborhoods.

3. Consolidate commercial land uses to the two existing neighborhood shopping centers as much as possible while still supporting viable neighborhood-oriented business elsewhere along the Corridor.

4. Eliminate non-neighborhood-friendly commercial uses while supporting commercial businesses which are truly neighborhood-serving.

5. Ensure that new development and redevelopment preserves and enhances the essential qualities of the neighborhoods: charm, water orientation, architectural styles, and the rich history of the area.

6. Establish connections to existing and proposed open spaces, the water, schools, and other facilities (my emphasis).

Giving credit where credit is due: The Washington Post is exploring the ramifications of the Kaine administration’s decision to put the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority in charge of toll roads and Metro rail for Northern Virginia’s 23-mile high-tech corridor. Steven Ginsberg filed this story describing the board that runs the MWAA.

Who will have the greatest say over the building of transportation infrastructure for Virginia’s 23-mile, high-tech corridor? A group of 13 men and women described as a “select mix of locals and out-of-towners, corporate executives and former politicians, transportation experts and real estate developers. … Five members are appointed by the governor of Virginia; two by the governor of Maryland; three by the mayor of the District; and three by the U.S. president. “

Will the MWAA board be accountable to the public? Ginsberg quotes Robert Clarke Brown, an adviser to the federal Transportation Department who lives near Cleveland and was appointed by former president Bill Clinton: “We are all a politically appointed board and each of us is accountable to our appointing authority. We’re very transparent in our operations.”

I’m generating remarkably little response for my commentary on what amounts to the most important executive decision made by Gov. Timothy M. Kaine in his young administration: the decision to give the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority significant control over the Dulles Toll Road and the Rail-to-Dulles Metro extension. But readership be damned. Some things just need writing about.

In a post made yesterday, I characterized the Kaine administration’s response to Speaker William J. Howell’s criticisms of the “Dulles Toll Road Giveaway Plan” as saying, in effect, “Trust us, we know what we’re doing.” The administration’s responses to that point did not address the substance of Howell’s charges.

Today, Kevin Hall from the Governor’s press office, has responded with substantive comments. (For those who need a refresher on the Speaker’s charges, you can read the press release here, and a transcript of the press conference here.) I post Hall’s comments here verbatim, without commentary:

1. A comprehensive review of the PPTA proposals and the MWAA proposal was conducted, and the MWAA proposal presented the most value for Virginia – by far. The MWAA proposal will support $4 billion in transportation improvements in the Dulles Corridor. The MWAA proposal was the only one that guaranteed completion of the rail project to Dulles Airport and Loudoun County.

2. The agreement does not stop private sector competition. To the contrary, it specifically requires MWAA to consider private sector proposals for HOT lanes and other highway congestion management strategies. The agreement establishes rail as the first priority in the corridor, consistent with the 30-year vision of the region.

3. The agreement guarantees that the entire rail extension will be constructed, and will accelerate completion of the entire project all the way to the Airport and Loudoun County. Virginia and MWAA share the primary goal of ensuring mobility in the Dulles Corridor. And the agreement does not vest land use authority with MWAA. That authority remains solely with the localities.

4. All of the four private sector plans included cash payments for the rail project. The MWAA proposal represented by far the largest financial contribution to the Metrorail project. But I would suggest the region does not need “cash on the table”– it needs improvements on the ground. The private sector highway proposals may
very well have merit, but these will require considerable time to evaluate to determine if they meet state and federal planning criteria. On a project of this magnitude, every year of delay equates to at least $100 million in additional cost due to inflation and increasing construction costs alone.

5. On the toll issue, it is important to note that the private sector proposals also would require toll increases. I would suggest that MWAA is a known quantity in Northern Virginia, operating and rebuilding two major aiports and the Dulles Access Road, as well as providing free right-of-way for the Dulles Toll Road. They have been instrumental in numerous regional mobility initiatives since their inception nearly two decades ago – bringing the blue line to National Airport and opening the Dulles Access Road to transit providers.

6. Opportunties for additional federal most definitely were not “abandoned.” Federal funding for the 2nd phase of this project has never been guaranteed.

7. We look forward to providing additional information to the members of the General Assembly. Many of the legislators in the corridor, from both parties, wrote to endorse the proposal. All of the legislators from the corridor, as well as members of Congress from the region, joined the Governor at the press conference to announce the agreement.

8. As for Delegate Albo’s suggestion that Virginia look to a recent toll-road concession agreement in Indiana, I would merely say the MWAA agreement will result in $4 billion in transportation improvements in the Dulles Corridor. The Indiana agreement, for example, only returns 34% of the revenue to the corridor in which it is generated. Governor Kaine opposes using toll road revenues from the Dulles corridor to support projects in other parts of the Commonwealth.

9. Virginia is a recognized national leader in public private partnerships and employs nationally renowned advisors to help evaluate complex proposals of this nature. Our record on PPTAs and the business merits of this proposal speak for themselves. Each PPTA-type proposal is different and needs to be considered on its own merits.

Now we have some substantive statements to dig into. Comments anyone?