Bacon's Rebellion

Linda and I killed SYNERGY’s FAX line this week. We had discussed it for a long time and decided it was time to pull the plug.

The last five FAXes we received were ads for “bad-credit-no-problem” mortgages and “who-would-want-to-go-there?” vacation packages. The transmissions were addressed to “All Staff.” Each was in the same format as those we had repeatedly, per federal regulations, asked the supposed sender to remove (540) 351-1702 from their files and their automatic dialers.

Some, e.g., Jim Bacon, have never really liked FAX. While FAX was a vital technology during World War II, it became just a simple tool when compared with the big deals of communications – the Internet and Cell Phones – that exploded in the 90s and the 00s. FAX was a handy, inexpensive technology – that was its downfall. No entity could make a lot of money by doing the things necessary to make FAX continue to be effective – like shaming government agencies into enforcing the regulations intended to support the medium. FAX was allowed to become the pond of bottom-fishers.

The end of FAX is, perhaps, a small loss for civilization but because it is a simple, useful tool it is symbolic of a larger cloud on the horizon on which we will focus in our next column.

EMR

I enjoyed the responses to my posting of the data from Tidewater that less spending per student produces better test scores – and, presumably, better educated students.

It was fun to show the data because every election cycle the VEA, Democrats, Too Many Republicans, Liberals, MSM and simple-minded folk make the claim that “More money = Better schools, better education”. Like there is a cause and effect.

A corporation in Florida, FYI Corporation (www.fyicorporation.com) did analysis of Florida schools using a visual presentation called KEGS. The KEG is a box sub-divided into many boxes. The subordinate boxes are (one hopes) independent variables. You score your variables and then color the boxes. The result is striking descriptive analysis.

They looked at schools in Florida and their standardized tests. You can see which factors jump out at you in successful schools and losers. Then, you go down the level of schools and you can see how individual teachers with the same variables get markedly different results. You can see how classes with windows on the playground get different results.

Let’s be clear that this is descriptive, not causal, analysis. It suggests what might matter. Of course, it makes a difference what independent variables you pick and how you measure them – the buzz word ‘metrics’. Yet, it may capture some of the variables that really matter in improving test scores – as one key, standardized measure of educational improvement. That would help educators and policy-makers to try something other than throwing money.

I didn’t post the graphics because they may be proprietary, although I’m sure this corporation would love a call from any school district or the Commonwealth wanting to pay for analysis.

Also, this technique would very interesting in an analysis of roads – mile by mile or whatever distance matters most. Maybe it could be used for environmental analysis of water.

Der Teuful im Detail steckt.

OCRACOKE–For those of you who have never heard of Ocracoke Island — and there seem to be a surprising number of you — it is a 16-mile island in the Outer Banks of North Carolina in the shape of a rope with a knot tied at one end. The 14 miles of “rope” consist of national wildlife refuge and are forever off limits to development. This refuge contains the most magnificent beaches on the East Coast of the United States, spectacular wetlands and miles and miles of dunes.

Human habitation is limited to Ocracoke Village at the “knot” at the end of the island. During the winter, the village sports a population of 800. During the peak of the summer season, between visitors and temporary workers, the population increases to 5,000 to 6,000. The island, accessible only by ferry, is one of the most isolated spots in the Outer Banks. (Only the deserted fishing village of Portsmouth, on an island with no ferry service, is more remote, if my geographical knowledge serves me correctly.)

Ocracoke is a fascinating microcosm, a case study in human settlement patterns. Though remote, it is becoming increasingly popular, but the community seems to be maintaining its integrity. The original village arose around the Ocracoke lighthouse and a small, protected harbor. The houses are set on tiny lots in close proximity. There is no central sewage system, so density is limited by square-footage requirements for septic systems. Otherwise the main restrictions are limitations on building height, building setbacks and tight water supplies that limit the number of new meters.

There don’t appear to be any zoning regulations that restrict “incompatible” land uses. The historic village is a charming mix of single-family houses, shops and restaurants. Many of the locals make their living as artisans and/or artists, and they live and work in the same premises. Lots of white picket fences. Quaint lanes of sand and crushed oyster shell. The trees, though wind-swept and scrubby, offer thick foliage. These, combined with the native island vegetation, have a stark and distinctive beauty.

Cars abound — the touristas all arrive on car-bearing ferries. But in the central village, where destinations are located close to one another, the primary means of locomotion is bicycle and foot. I have been surprised to espy only a handful of golf carts/electric buggies. There may be a business opportunity for someone to fill the void.

The local promoters are given to calling Ocracoke the “Martha’s Vineyard” of the South. Indeed, it does resemble Martha’s Vineyard before it was thoroughly yuppified and the original dwellings gave way to $3 million McMansions. I hope that fate never befalls this magical island….

Today’s Daily Press (August 21, 2006) has a cool graphic on the front of the Local News section. It shows how much money each locality spent per student (total as well as local and other state/federal spending) and SOLs in English, Math and Science (cumulatives calculated by the state).

The localities include over a half million Virginians – Hampton, Newport News, York, Poquoson, Williamsburg, James City County, Gloucester, Mathews, Suffolk, Isle of Wight, and Surry.

The lowest spending locality ($7,200 per student) , Poquoson (my town), has the highest scores (91 English, 95 Math, 93 Science) . The highest spending lccality ($12,000 per student), Surry, has the lowest scores (72 English, 74 Math, 80 Science).

The second lowest spender, York (where my wife is a school counselor in a school that passed the SOLs every year), is second highest in scores.

Hmm. Looks like more money doesn’t bring better results on tests. If the VEA is really about education, then they should advocate LESS spending per student!

Barton Hinkle has demonstrated once again that he has a keener grasp of the issues than any other newspaper pundit commenting on Virginia transportation. Rather than recycling the same worn-out dogmas, he brings new perspectives to the debate. In yesterday’s edition, he turned outright wonkish: delving into the methodology of how one properly calculates the cost of operating the cost of automobile travel.

At dispute was the question: Which costs more, traveling one mile by car or by train? In a previous column, Hinkle had quoted the Heritage Foundation to the effect that it costs an average of $.21 per mile to operate a car — including the cost of road construction and maintenance. Rail advocates objected, citing AAA figures of $.62 per mile.

I have no idea whose estimate is better, although, I’ll admit, the Heritage number sounds low to me. The point is that Hinkle is asking the right questions. What are the average costs, both private and public, of transporting a person by car and by rail? Currently, lawmakers in Virginia favor pumping billions of state transportation dollars into mass transit without any evidence whatsoever (at least none that has been proffered to the public) that mass transit can move more people for less cost than building roads.

I’m not against mass transit — I’m just against investing in mass transit blindly. The Commonwealth needs to establish objective yardsticks for measuring the cost effectiveness of road vs. rail. Those costs, as Hinkle rightly points out, need to include “externalities” such as pollution and energy security. And they need to recognize, in the context of analyzing specific project alternatives, that average numbers are meaningless. What matters is the cost effectiveness of a specific project under specific circumstances. Finally, I would add, any evaluation needs to consider the extent to which any project is capable of paying its own way, whether through tolls, fares or tax-increment bond financing.

Virginia needs a rigorous methodology grounded in economics and finance to guide its investments in transportation capacity. Without one, the money we spend is steered by politics and power. Hinkle is steering the discussion in a useful direction.

The sky is the canvas. God is the artist. And every evening he paints a new masterpiece. We sit at the water’s edge, beholding the vault of heaven above us. Thunderheads billow on the horizon, blossoming like camellias. Contrails streak across the sky. The setting sun lights up the clouds like dying embers. The master has daubed layer upon layer: grays upon blues, golds upon whites, crimsons upon pinks. We marvel at the glory of the creator… and wonder, what have we been missing?

BEAUFORT, N.C.–Eastern North Carolina doesn’t get the respect or recognition it deserves. There are a dozen or more delightful little communities dotting the coast of the Pamlico and Albemarle sounds. Beaufort has a beautiful historic district laid out in a classic grid-street layout, with charming clapboard houses dating back to the ante-bellum era. It doesn’t have the spectacular mansions seen in the Battery in Charleston (which I’ve seen) or even Savannah (which I’ve seen only in “The Garden of Midnight and Evil”) but it’s relaxed, informal and not excessively impressed with itself. Sailing yachts and power boats pull up to the dock along the boardwalk giving the land-lubbers like myself something to drool over, fantasizing at the idea of living on a boat, off the grid, foot-loose and fancy free.

Tomorrow, we drive an hour and hop on the ferry to Ocracoke Island in the Outer Banks. Ocracoke is so remote — so far from population centers and accessible only by ferry — that it remains largely unspoiled. But the village is absolutely charming, not overrun with chain restaurants, t-shirt shops, putt-putt golf courses and all the other hyper-commercialized dreck that has ruined Nag’s Head and Virginia Beach. The beaches on Ocracoke Island are the most beautiful on the East Coast and among the most beautiful in the world: broad, white sands, brushed by the waters of the Gulf Stream, unspoiled by development of any kind. You don’t need a car for anything — except to get there and to reach the beach. Otherwise you walk or ride bicycles. It’s one of my favorite places on earth.

If there’s Wi-Fi access on Ocracoke, I’ll report back in. If not, well… I’ll be soaking up rays on the beach, kayaking through the wetlands or dining on bourbon pecan chicken at the Back Porch restaurant. Adieu!

(Photo credit: Eddie Myers Real Estate.)

For all of our problems — and God knows, we dwell on them here at Bacon’s Rebellion — it gives us great cheer to see that Forbes magazine, in its first-ever ranking of the business climates of the 50 states, ranked Virginia number one.

The Old Dominion has the best regulatory environment in the country. Business costs are very low, particularly taxes and energy costs. Also noteworthy, according to Forbes, are Virginia’s AAA bond rating, low workers compensation costs and excellent system of higher education. Encouraging, too, is the fact that the state scored in the bottom half of only three of Forbes’ 30 metrics. As a Forbes writer reportedly told Gov. Timothy M. Kaine: “Not only are you guys first, there’s not even a close second.”

Read Forbes’ profile of Virginia here. And see the state rankings here. Texas ranked second, North Carolina third and Maryland 11th. (For what it’s worth, Delaware ranked 8th, Florida 9th and Georgia 10th. Can the southern Atlantic seaboard claim to be the most dynamic region in the country?)

As a Richmond resident, I was delighted to see the attention that Forbes gave to MeadWestvaco’s decision to relocate its corporate headquarters from Connecticut to my home town. Richmond is indeed a great place to do business and richly deserves the recognition. But I found it curious that Forbes could write about Virginia’s business climate without once alluding to the technology-driven economy in Northern Virginia, which has been out-performing its high-tech peers in job creation for several years now. If Forbes editors pay attention to their own survey, perhaps they will dedicate more resources to covering Northern Virginia’s increasingly dynamic business community.

Road to Ruin is taking a closer look at Prince William County. In a previous article, writer Peter Galuszka profiled the county’s aggressive road-building program. This time, he came back to see how well Prince William is coordinating its $1.5 billion, 15-year transportation plan with its land use policies. (See “Will the Real Prince William County Please Stand Up?”)

It wasn’t easy sorting through the conflicting claims. Sean Connaughton, chairman of the board of supervisors, made a vigorous case that the county has been proactive and forward thinking. But Stewart Schwartz with the Coalition for Smarter Growth, showed Peter some examples of awful slash-and-clear development. My sense as an outsider who occasionally drives through the county is that Prince William is doing a pretty good job connecting land use and transportation in the east, especially in the revitalization of the U.S. 1 corridor. The situation is harder to untangle in the western end of the county around Manassas.

Under Connaughton, the board has been steering the county towards more compact, higher-density, pedestrian-friendly and transit-friendly development than the county had seen before. The problem is that a huge backlog of traditional, sprawl-style development is in the pipeline. The result to date has been a mixture of the good, the bad and the ugly. As the backlog gets worked down, I would expect to see a more transportation-efficient mix of projects. It may not meet the standards of smart growth advocates, but it’s better than what came before.

Does that mean Prince William County has turned the corner to a sustainable pattern of development — or that it’s just sliding downhill at a slower speed? We probably won’t know for years. As Connaughton says, you don’t bring about meaningful change with a snap of the fingers. It’s too bad that Connaughton won’t be around long enough — he’s taking that maritime administration job with the Bush administration — to bask in the praise or catch the blame.

Joel Garreau, of “Edge Cities” fame, has penned another penetrating analysis for the Washington Post, this time of Virginia’s piedmont. He describes what he calls the “Santa-Feing” of the Piedmont, in hommage to an earlier transformation of the area around Santa Fe, N.M. Urbane refugees from the big city are settling in the towns and hamlets of the Piedmont — and bringing their upscale, yuppified culture with them. Says Garreau:

This Santa Fe-ing is marked by a profusion of high-end and inventive food, wineries, shops, restaurants, theater, moviemaking, film festivals, bookstores, music and the arts in landscapes that don’t look too different from the way they did a century ago, albeit better kept up. Think of it as Monticello with broadband. It’s a combination of the 21st century and the 18th century, the Information Age and the Agrarian Age.

Garreau is an acute observer of cultural details, and he does a marvelous job of contrasting the white wine-and-laptops crowd with the rustic, shotguns-and-moonpies locals whose families have lived there for decades, even centuries. To understand what’s happening in this corner of the state — and its intense opposition to the wave of dysfunctional “suburban” growth lapping over from Northern Virginia — the article is must reading.

(Hat tip to Tobias Jodter for bringing the article to the blog’s attention. Readers can pick up on some of the commentary on Garreau’s article in the thread originating in Ed Risse’s “Where the Jobs Are Not” post.)

The phenomenon that Garreau describes is not limited to the Piedmont, however. Similar trends can be seen in the Shenandoah Valley as far south as Staunton and Lexington, and it can be seen in Nelson County, where the Wintergreen ski/golf resort has created an enormous colony of alien, urban culture in a traditional rural community.

Garreau does not emphasize it, but these cultures are coming into conflict. Most instructive is an article today published by the News Virginian over the future of Nellysford, a blue-collar hamlet at the base of the mountain from Wintergreen. The Thomas Jefferson Planning District Commission presented a draft development plan for the community right out of the Bacon’s Rebellion play book: “traffic roundabout, nature trails, a townhouse subdivision and commercial/office complex, and a sector reserved for community resources like a ball field, community center and library.”

As writer Alicia Petska wrote of a public hearing, in which 50 attendees blistered county officials:

It’s a picturesque, bustling little village the planners have laid out. And the residents hate it.

“Can I make a suggestion?” asked Bonnie Hughes, who’s lived on 9 acres in Nellysford since 1954. “That we let Nellysford alone. Leave it like it is and let it develop itself.”

Residents are stubbornly attached to their rural way of life: detached houses and stores strung along a winding valley road… no core, no nucleus, no defining boundary between settlement and countryside… an auto-dependent community in a world of rising gasoline prices.

Personally, as a bona fide member of the wine-and-laptop crowd, I’ll take Wintergreen over Nellysford any day. But, as long as they are willing to pay the location-variable costs associated with their lifestyle choices, people should be left alone to live as they want.

The newspaper industry will experience a cumulative $20 billion revenue shortfall by 2010, only four years away, concludes Outsell, Inc., a research and advisory firm for the information industry, in its report, “Deadline with Destiny.” (See the press release.)

The estimated shortfall is even larger than newspaper executives have acknowledged,” says Outsell lead analyst Ken Doctor, who headed the research. “The perfect storm of print circulation decline, accompanying pressures on print advertising, and the rapid growth of lower-revenue-producing online news media is eroding the industry. The business of news faces an unprecedented transformation as these trends likely accelerate over the next five years.”

Key points:

• The decline of paid circulation revenues for print newspapers will speed up as key 18-39-year-olds continue their online migration, undermining newspapers’ traditional mass market claims.
• Newspapers’ online ad revenue growth rate of about 30 percent masks the larger problem that online revenues aren’t replacing lost print revenues fast enough.
• Workforce cuts, already underway, are insufficient to meet the accelerating financial challenges.
• News companies must consider lowering their operating margins from an average of 21 percent to levels more commonly seen.

The year 2010 is four years away. There’s a good chance of hitting a recession before then. Print media have been increasingly vulnerable to advertising recessions. That will be truth-or-consequences time for the newspaper industry.

The Virginia Department of Transportation has issued a contract to Video Convergence, of Springfield, to design, test, and install surveillance camera systems on arterial roadways in the Northern Operations Region. The system will transmit real-time video, via an IP-based network, directly to VDOT’s Smart Traffic Center in Arlington. Virginia currently operates camera surveillance systems on freeways, but not on arterial roadways.

By monitoring live video streams and communicating and sharing information, VDOT hopes to more effectively manage traffic incidents. Video Convergence describes the project as part of a “proactive effort” to manage congestion in Tysons Corner before construction of the Dulles Metro rail begins in early 2007.

It takes a lot of audacity to buy a house near an airport and then complain when changing airport operations start generating more noise. But Americans have become a nation of inveterate whiners, so nothing surprises me anymore.

The latest case in point is the Pleasant Valley community three miles from Washington Dulles International Airport. The airport, according to The Connection Newspapers, is adding a north-south runway that will cause airplanes to fly directly over Pleasant Valley. The Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority says the airplane noise shouldn’t exceed the permissible 65-decibel level. Residents aren’t so sure, and they want a monitor installed. And what are they going to do if airplanes go over that level? Shut down the runway?

I’m sorry, but I have zero sympathy. What were these people thinking when they bought their houses? There they were, three miles from a major international airport — an airport that had ample room for growth and made no secret of its intention to expand in the future. Did they think that buying a house gave them veto rights over where the Airport located its runways and what kind of planes flew in and out?

The MWAA should make reasonable efforts to keep noise levels down. But I don’t see that the Airport is under any obligation to knock itself out. Buying a house near an airport is like buying a house next to the railroad track and complaining if the railroad company figures out a way to run its trains a little faster. Or buying a house backed up to the Interstate and complaining when the traffic increases. That’s the risk you took when you bought the house, you damn dummy!

(Hat tip to Tobias Jodter for pointing out this story. I don’t know if he’ll agree with my spin or not, but you can blame him for bringing it to my attention.)

From time to time WaPo publishes data that debunks the Subregional Job Dispersal Myth. Those who benefit from belief in this myth claim the core jobs in the Virginia portion of the National Capital Subregion – as opposed to houses and services – are scattering across the Countryside. See “Where the Jobs Are,” 24 May 2004 at https://www.baconsrebellion.com/ and subsequent collums that deal with job location.

Today is another of those times. The “Commercial Real Estate Report – What’s New in Northern Virginia” is a regular and useful – al be it misleadingly titled – service of WaPo. The map and table presenting the survey of office buildings completed or under construction “since 2003” is takes up a full page in today’s Business Section.

A quick application of Regional Metrics indicates that there are over four times the square footage of new and under construction office buildings in the Radius = 10 Miles to Radius = 20 Miles Radius Band as there are beyond Radius = 20 Miles.

There are twice as many square feet in new and under construction office buildings inside Radius = 10 Miles as there are in the band between Radius = 10 Miles and Radius = 20 Miles and eight times the number outside R = 20.

This is fully consistent with the data published over the past two decades:

The Subregion’s core Jobs are in the Core, Period.

The value of the buildings and the rents paid by the tenants document that this is where the jobs that are most important to the Subregion’s economy are located.

Several notes:

There are buildings under construction in the R = 10 to 20 Radius Band than in the R = < 10 area. On the other hand the buildings are larger closer to the core. R = 10 to 20 average building size is 175,000 sq ft vs 317,000 sq ft average building size inside R = 10. There are new office buildings in the Over R = 20 area outside the survey area. There is a small building going up along I-66 east of VA Route 234 Bus in Greater Manassas and another in “downtown” Gainesville. It can be assumed that if there were a lot buildings going up, the area of coverage would have been expanded. The buildings such as this are often occupied by residential service activities, not core (economic base) jobs. The survey does not include owner occupied buildings for good reason. The location of owner occupied buildings is often the result of an employers wanting to create a new profit center as a speculative office developer using their own employees as captive tenants. It has been suggested that this strategy contributed to the downfall of both AOL and WorldCom. The AOL complex is soon to be less occupied – and if our Internet connection speed is any indication, soon to be empty – and WorldCom washed through bankruptcy and is now MCI. In both cases by attempting to double dip and be real estate speculators these companies created work environments that were not attractive – among other things they were and are inaccessible to most potential employees in the Subregion. To attract the sort of employee that a company needs to compete and survive in the global marketplace the job location must be intelligently located. Finding cheap land as both of these companies did is not enough. The Creative Class is not attracted to locations like ones near Wal*Mart in the Weeds. The most important point driven home again by this survey is that most of the new offices are in Greater Alexandria, Greater South Arlington, Greater North Arlington, Greater Tysons Corner, and Greater Reston with several others located in places such as Fairfax Center and Greater Chantilly. The vast majority are in the first five and all five of those Beta Communities have a large imbalance of jobs over housing. There are jobs needed to balance the existing (and planned) excess of housing over jobs in Greater Ashburn, Greater Cascades / Sterling, Greater Chantilly and Greater Centreville. That is why “South Dulles” – about which ones reads with increasing frequency – makes no sense as will be explored in upcoming columns. EMR

The Patrick Michaels story continues to heat up. The Virginian-Pilot has weighed in with an editorial noting that the University of Virginia professor and state climatologist has taken money from fossil fuel companies, but notes that it’s an old story — first reported in 1990 — and he doesn’t seem to be violating any conflict-of-interest guidelines.

But back in Charlottesville, Kevin Lynch, a Charlottesville city councilor, has been digging into the story. As reported in the Cvillenews.com and aired in Waldo Jaquith’s blog, Lynch can’t find any documentation that Michaels is, in fact, state climatologist — despite the fact that he has been receiving some $90,000 a year in state funds. The legal authority and paperwork appeared to have been lost in the mists of time, and the state appears to be handing over money to Michaels out of habit. Gov. Timothy M. Kaine insists that Michaels is not a gubernatorial appointee. It would be a good idea for someone in state government — perhaps the Attorney General’s office — to get to the bottom of this.

In another piece, Lynch looks into the question: What, exactly, does the state climatologist do for his $90,000 a year? The main thing he does, apparently, is issue periodic “climate advisories” throughout the year. However, Lynch detects an editorializing trend in his advisories “expressing skepticism towards global warming in particular and fellow scientists in general,” a skepticism that he believes is inappropriate. Concludes Lynch:

I cannot see how any impartial observer could avoid the conclusion that using an official publication of the State Climatologist as an editorial vehicle to promote the agenda of Dr. Michaels’ power company funders is anything other than a clear conflict of interest.

Lynch, it seems to me, is asking perfectly legitimate questions, and I applaud him for his initiatve. However, Lynch’s argumentative tone suggests that Michaels’ greatest offense is to question global warming in the first place.

The one thing I have yet to see in any of the editorials and commentaries written about Michaels is a critique of his arguments. Painting him as a paid apologist for the fossil fuel industry is sufficent to dismiss his ideas without ever engaging them. Well, I have just purchased his book, “Meltdown,” and I’m working my way through it. I will comment in detail upon his arguments if this state-climatologist controversy doesn’t die down.

At this point I will say only this: Michaels’ knowledge of climatology, the scientific studies he cites and the arguments he makes cannot be dismissed simply by labeling him a tool of the bad guys. He may be wrong… He may not be offering a complete picture of the state of knowledge in climatology today… but he is not self-evidently wrong. By contrast, the characterizations of his views are laughably inaccurate.

Secondly, Michaels offers a critique of the scientific establishment that the pundits refuse to acknowledge. He examines the political economy of global warming, a multi-billion scientific industry that lives off of government funding. The only way to maintain that funding, he argues, is to keep the public and politicians in a state of alarm and agitation about the cataclysmic fate that awaits us all. The global warming true believers, if we are to believe him, are as motivated by self interest as those who oppose them. That’s the sad state of science in the world today.

Update: Daily Progress columnist Bob Gibson argues that there’s nothing wrong with the intellectual diversity that Michaels, “a little speck of red in a blue ivory tower,” provides UVa. “Politically correct research is fine, but as with science, research that questions prevailing wisdom often produces better wisdom.”