• On Track for 400,000 Acres Conserved

    Gov. Timothy M. Kaine isn’t waiting for others to act in order to meet his goal of conserving 400,000 acres of open space in the Commonwealth by the end of his four-year term. Meeting with local leaders to celebrate the easement of 4,000 acres along the Rappahannock River recently, he told the following story, according to the Free Lance-Star:

    Instead of waiting for landowners to start talking to state agencies about using easements and other tools to protect their land, Kaine said state officials — and sometimes the governor himself–are now trying to start those talks.

    He told a story about canoeing on the James River in Botetourt County last July 3 and taking out at a farm. Kaine asked the landowner if the farm was under conservation easement. It wasn’t, but the owner seemed interested. So Kaine had Secretary of Natural Resources Preston Bryant call him on July 4, and the 700-acre property is now preserved forever under a conservation easement.

    In 2006, Kaine’s first term, 95,000 acres of Virginia land were preserved — about double the rate before then. But Kaine said he would have to step up his efforts to meet his goal. State officials are going after big chunks of land — 10,000-20,000 acres per shot. As a result, the Governor has been talking to paper companies with huge holdings of forest land.


  • Midlothian Leviathan

    Chesterfield County is the last place on the planet you’d expect to see commuter rail. Characterized by scattered, disconnected, low-density development and communities designed around the movement of automobiles, Richmond’s southern suburb epitomizes the autocentric society that destroyed mass transit in the 20th century.

    Ironically, Chesterfield enjoyed a vibrant commuter rail scene at the turn of the 20th century — before local government mandated “suburban” style zoning and state government began subsidizing leapfrog development. Some 100 years after commuter rail’s hey-day, developers are trying to revive the idea. Two large planned communities, Roseland and Watkins Centre, would like to see commuter rail running along an underutilized Norfolk Southern railway track from downtown Richmond out to their projects near the Rt. 288 circumferential highway.

    The Richmond Metropolitan Planning Organization sketched the outlines of Midlothian commuter rail project in a 2003 study, which should be updated this fall. But the study was none too optimistic: An up-front capital investment of $81 million plus ongoing operating deficit of $1 million annually would take only 170 passengers per workday off the roads. Not a very good return on investment. Judged by the study’s ridership metrics, Midlothian commuter rail is a poor candidate for state and federal funding.

    But, as I outline in today’s column, “Midlothian Leviathan,” there may be a way to establish commuter rail as a profit-driven enterprise. Readers of this blog will find the key concepts familiar: (1) Set up Community Development Authorities around the rail stations, (2) pay for the capital improvements by issuing CDA bonds, (3) pay back the bonds through tax-increment financing on property owners in the CDA, (4) overlay the CDA districts with Transit Oriented Development districts, (5) incentivize property owners to re-develop their properties by increasing densities around the stations, and (6) require developers to set up Transportation Demand Management programs to mitigate the impact of localized congestion on nearby residential neighborhoods.

    Under the Bacon schema, Midlothian commuter rail would require no government funding whatsoever. It would require no government coercion, no exercise of eminent domain to strong-arm anyone into participating. It would put into place measures to offset negative impacts on neighbors. And the rail line would fly, so to speak, only if it constituted a win-win-win for Chesterfield County, the City of Richmond, property owners, neighbors and commuters.

    Sound like a tall order? You bet. I fully acknowledge that I may have set the bar so high that the project would never work. But I lay out a developer-driven strategy that has never been tried before, at least not in Virginia, and not in recent history. Please check it out and point out any flaws you might see — or any possibilities that I might have overlooked.

  • Rabble Rousing at Its Best: Bacon’s Rebellion

    Aesthetes of the world, why trouble yourself with those mangey, lesser blogs when you can indulge in the very finest of social agitation and political perturbations at the Bacon’s Rebellion e-zine? You can view the July 2, 2007 edition right here.

    Don’t miss a single malcontented issue — sign up for a free subscription here.

    Here are this week’s offerings:

    Midlothian Leviathan
    The impact of a Midlothian commuter rail project on the Richmond region could be enormous — if Chesterfield County puts into place the necessary zoning and special tax districts.
    by James A. Bacon

    Double Shot
    Virginians are finally debating the convoluted new law that punishes “abusive drivers” twice: with fines and fees. A little late, but better than never.
    by Doug Koelemay

    Still No Exit
    Earth is the only biosphere we’ve got. Gliese 581-C-A, the closest potentially earth-like planet yet discovered, is 20 light-years away. We must build a sustainable civilization here at home.
    by EM Risse

    Slow and Unsteady
    Economic growth will slow in Virginia next year. Short-term, we must restrain state government spending to match. Long-term, we need to devise a fix for boom-bust budgeting.
    by Michael Thompson

    A Party Divided Shall Stand
    Discord in the Republican Party is a sign of healthy struggle between the People and politicians who have been co-opted by the political system.
    by James Atticus Bowden

    Annoy a Politician
    Bypass the political establishment: Support an Initiative & Referendum amendment to the state constitution.
    By Norman Leahy

    Nice & Curious Questions
    The Tribes of Virginia: American Indians in the Commonwealth
    by Edwin S. Clay III and Patricia Bangs


  • It Could Be Worse: We Could Be Driving in California

    Virginia has the 18th best road system in the country in 2004, according to a national survey published by the Reason Foundation. That’s a far-from-stellar performance, but we can console ourselves that we outperform our neighbors in Maryland (38th) and North Carolina (31st). However, the sour pusses among you can take heart that Virginia’s performance fell significantly from the previous year, when it had ranked 11th.

    The rankings combine two sets of measures: roadway quality and performance measures, and cost measures. States ranking the highest tend to offer a combination of superior performance at lower cost.

    As a generality, Virginia fared well in cost measures — we spend considerably less on our roads than other states — but enjoy middling performance levels.

    We ranked 8th lowest in the country in receipts per state-controlled mile: $55,063. That compares to a low of $36,890 in South Carolina and a high of $2,370,630 (not a misprint!!) in New Jersey (Can anyone say “Mafia-dominated construction unions?”)

    Virginia was the 2nd lowest state in the country for Capital & Bridge disbursements per
    state-controlled mile, 27th lowest for maintenance disbursements, and 7th lowest in administrative disbursements.

    In the critical performance measure “urban interstate congestion,” Virginia ranked 21st best with 42.54 percent of our interstate miles congested. A handful of western and Great Plains states enjoy zero percent interstate congestion, but the numbers are high throughout the East Coast. The comparable numbers in Maryland: 68.58 percent. In North Carolina: 72.47 percent.

    With 83.33 percent congested interstate miles, California has the worst interstates in the country.


  • Surprise Hot Story of the Week: Abuser Fees

    In the absence of a more compelling political narrative during the summer doldrums, the issue of abuser fees for reckless drivers has become the issue du jour in the Mainstream Media. A half dozen newspapers, plus the Associated Press, published articles on the topic yesterday.

    Down in Martinsville, the abusive driver fees have become a campaign issue. Jeff Evans, a Republican candidate for state Senate, has attacked his opponent, state Sen. Roscoe Reynolds, D-Ridgeway, for introducing a version of the law on the behalf of Gov. Timothy M. Kaine. As quoted in the Martinsville Bulletin, Evans said in a press release:

    โ€œOf course [the fees] will place an undue burden on any of our low-income citizens and cause many more to simply ignore the law and place themselves in danger of serving jail time. Even worse, it applies only to Virginia residents. That is just not right.โ€

    The same day, someone raised the out-of-state angle during the call-in radio show with Gov. Timothy M. Kaine. The Governor opened the possibility of extending the abuser fees for reckless driving and Driving Under the Influence to out-of-state drivers.

    The idea sounds reasonable — why should Virginians be held to a higher standard? But as Christina Nuckols with the Virginian-Pilot explains, the matter gets complicated very quickly.

    The fees are currently treated as civil penalties collected by the Department of Motor Vehicles. If you don’t pay the fee, your driver’s license could be suspended. The fees would have to be changed to criminal fines in order to collect from out-of-state drivers.

    Virginia’s constitution earmarks all court fines to be spent on school construction and teacher retirement benefits. The bad-driver fees were adopted to generate new money for road maintenance.

    Meanwhile, House Speaker William J. Howell has responded to criticism in the Free Lance-Star: The Kaine administration, he wrote in a column, estimates that only 150,000 people, 2.5 percent of all licensed drivers, would have been affected during the past few years. Further, writes Howell:

    A cursory check of the facts would have found that abuser fees have worked successfully in New Jersey, where the number of demerit points drivers have accrued for dangerous driving has fallen since that state’s fees were introduced. The direct results of Virginia’s plan will be better driving, safer roads, less traffic congestion due to accidents, and more money for transportation.

    Seems to me that we should have had this debate before the law was passed. Bacon’s Rebellion raised a number of issues during the transportation debate, but in the stampede to find new revenue sources, only a handful of others questioned the law. To this day, I have yet to see an an article that quotes Virginia traffic judges for their opinions of what the law might mean. We have only begun to explore the ramifications of this issue.


  • Challenged in Chesterfield

    Chesterfield County makes an interesting petrie dish for studying development. The county of 300,000 residents has a vast overhang of land zoned for residential housing– enough for 43,000 new dwelling units, according to Scott Bass’ article in Style Weekly. And the Board of Supervisors continues to rezone more land, at least for quality projects such as the proposed mixed-use Roseland development near the intersection of Midlothian Turnpike and Rt. 288, which is adding 5,000 houses, condos and apartments to the building stock. The Southern Environmental Law Center is projecting growth of 125,000 housing units by 2030.

    Most of the development, however, is small-scale and piecemeal: following the classic suburban pattern of walled off shopping centers and cul de sac subdivisions. There are very few mixed-use neighborhoods (although some are on the drawing boards). The pod-like pattern of development offers very little connectivity between the different pieces. As a consequence, Chesterfield residents rely upon a relatively small number of connector roads and arterials to get around. Compounding the problem, the county actively discourages mass transit.

    Despite the gift of newly constructed Rt. 288, paid for by the state, traffic congestion is heading to gridlock. The county lacks the means to build its way out of its jam. Although Chesterfield collects proffers of $15,600 per house on land rezoned today, houses on property rezoned in the early 1990s may yield proffers of as little as $2,000. The state, which runs Chesterfield roads, has very little money to contribute. And unlike Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads, the Richmond region is not empowered to raise taxes for regional road projects.

    Meanwhile, NIMBYs, reacting to the increased pressure on roads, schools and county finances, want to curtail growth through such ill-conceived measures as minimum lot sizes that would smear growth over larger areas that are even more expensive to serve with roads, utilities and public services.

    What’s a county to do? One proposal I’ve heard is to give the go-ahead to developers of large, mixed-use projects who have the knowledge and financial backing to build well-planned, well-conceived communities. Given a choice between living in pedestrian-friendly communities with a wide range of amenities available nearby or living in disaggregated, auto-dependent subdivisions, people will flock to the quality projects. The good stuff will get built, the argument goes, and the bad stuff won’t. Maybe. The hitch is that the large mixed-use projects are located on the urban periphery and rely upon Rt. 288 and a handful of other roads for connectivity with the rest of the metro area. Those roads will quickly get overloaded.

    The other strategy is revitalization of older suburbs, an example of which is the re-development proposed for the aging Cloverleaf Mall just off the Chippenham Parkway. But re-development works only when developers can increase density, and that doesn’t appear to be something that Chesterfield is willing to do on anything other than a spot, case-by-case basis.

    In next week’s e-zine, I will explore a third strategy: Encourage transit-oriented development along a commuter rail line running from the proposed Roseland project on Rt. 288 through Midlothian and into downtown Richmond. Follow Arlington’s example in zoning for higher density around the rail stops. And use Community Development Authorities to pay the up-front cost of setting up the heavy rail operation. Read the details Monday.


  • Virginia as a “Low Tax” State

    It’s time to put to rest the notion that Virginia is a low-tax state, or even a moderate/low tax state. On page R8 of its June 11, 2007, “Economic Round Up,” the Wall Street Journal published a chart, “Feeding the Government”, that ranked “total local, state and federal tax burdens as a percentage of each state’s income.”

    Virginia ranked 18th from the top — as in, 18th highest, not lowest. Virginia’s tax burden was a hair above the national average but higher than 32 other states. Our tax burden: 32.9 percent of total income. Connecticut had the highest with 38.3 percent, Oklahoma the lowest, with 27.8 percent.

    We’re accustomed to seeing Virginia rank better in state rankings. That’s because most rankings compare total state and local government spending only. But here’s the problem: The federal tax code doesn’t adjust for cost of living. When states and regions have a high cost of living (as Northern Virginia does), its nominal wage levels tend to be higher. Given the highly progressive structure of the federal tax code, nominally affluent regions wind up paying higher taxes.

    Insofar as state/local government policies create dysfunctional human settlement patterns, as they do in Northern Virginia, Virginia’s political economy is directly responsible for high living costs, and indirectly responsible for high tax rates. So, let’s stop the drivel about Virginia being a “low tax” state, and get on with the business of cutting the cost of government, reforming dysfunctional human settlement patterns, and making out tax burden less onerous.


  • Where Dysfunctional Zoning Policy Meets Dysfunctional Immigration Policy

    I can understand why homeowners get upset when someone buys a house in the neighborhood and then leases out rooms to unskilled, semi-literate immigrants, who proceed to trash the place. Responding to the proliferation of illegal boarding houses, Fairfax County officials have begun cracking down by strictly enforcing zoning codes. (See the Fairfax County Times story.)

    But it appears that part of the problem is of the county’s own making. The mortgage on a modest, middle-class rambler can cost $4,000 to $5,000 per month. Very few households can afford that on their own. That is one of the motivations for leasing out individuals rooms for up to $600 or $700 per month. (See the companion story in the Fairfax County Times.)

    Marta Reyes … lives with her husband and two young children in a small, beige rambler with a perfectly manicured lawn on Frederick Avenue in Springfield.

    Rooms rent for $400 month. She said that 11 people live in the house and that she would rent to six more. Her mortgage is $4,000 a month and, like many who rent out their homes, she said, “I can’t pay for the house myself.”

    Clearly, there is a shortage of affordable housing. It doesn’t cost $4,000 a month to mortgage middle-class houses in fast-growth cities like Atlanta or Houston. That price reflects scarcity of supply — a scarcity induced by zoning policies that discourage construction of low/moderate-income housing.

    The underlying cause of illegal boarding is clouded by the immigration issue. Most of the inhabitants of the illegal boarding houses are of Hispanic origin (Honduran in the case of the woman profiled by the Times), so there is a presumption that they are here illegally. Maybe the are, maybe they aren’t, I don’t know. If they are illegal, they shouldn’t be here — which means that we need to repair our dysfunctional immigration policy, too.

    Update: The City of Winchester, population 25,000, has received 94 overcrowding complaints since July 2006, according to the Winchester Star.


  • Five Bikers, Two Miles, $16 Million

    I’m a big fan of bike lanes, as Bacon’s Rebellion readers know — but there are limits to how much money we should spend on them. Apparently, the Chesapeake City Council agrees. Yesterday the council voted to reverse a previous decision to build a two-mile, $16 million bike path paralleling a road that currently has only five bikers per day. (See today’s article in the Virginian-Pilot.)

    As Virginian-Pilot columnist Kerry Dougherty railed last week:

    Despite the price, all but one council member at the meeting merrily voted “yes.” And why not? The cash wasn’t coming out of Chesapeake’s coffers. This would be mostly federal and state transportation dollars.

    Defending his affirmative vote, Vice Mayor Dwight Parker explained that Chesapeake couldn’t use the $16 million for anything but the bike path. “If we don’t use it,” he told me. “We lose it.” Sheesh.

    That’s the quality of decision making you get when the federal government doles out money with all sorts of strings attached. The feds ought to get out of the local transportation funding business and stick to projects of national significance. It’s not clear what the state’s role was in this narrowly averted fiasco, but whatever it was, it suggests that someone is not doing a very good job of prioritizing the investment of scarce state tax dollars. Let’s hope that the NoVa and Hampton Roads regional transportation authorities are more careful. (See the previous blog entry.)


  • NoVa’s Transportation Money Geyser: Sidewalks, Signs and Bike Lanes

    As the Northern Virginia Transportation Authority prepares to approve a slew of taxes and fees expected to yield $300 million a year, the first new projects in the pipeline are coming into view. According to the Fairfax County Times, a $102 million list of projects for Fairfax County include:

    • $10 million for pedestrian upgrades to the Route 1 corridor
    • $6.1 million for upgraded signs at Virginia’s 20 Metrorail stations
    • $2.5 million for gutter, sidewalk and bike lane improvements at Chain Bridge Road and Eaton Place
    • $29 million for the Fair Lakes interchange with the Fairfax County Parkway.

    Pedestrian upgrades? Metrorail signage? Bike lanes? Wow. It’s nice to know that something other than mega road projects are getting funding. What I’d like to see in addition to the list of projects, though, is some kind of return on investment analysis. Inquiring minds want to know.


  • Who the Real Ideologues Are

    The Roanoke Times has joined a justifiably long list of observers appalled by the prospect of imposing punitive fines for driving offenses — fines that will (a) encourage more people to contest their tickets, (b) clog the courts, and eventually (c) start jamming local jails with working-class stiffs who, unable to pay the fines, will lose their licenses and then get arrested for driving without a license. It won’t take long before these flaws are manifest to all.

    I take no issue with the Times’ criticism of the punitive fines, or even its endorsement of gasoline taxes as a preferred source of transportation revenue. But I do take issue with its kneejerk characterization of the General Assembly. Writes the Times editorialist: “Motorists can thank the General Assembly’s anti-tax ideologues in the House of Delegates who refused even to consider tax increases to pay for the state’s needed highway improvements.”

    Got that? Anyone who opposes tax increases is an “ideologue.”

    As opposed to pro-tax advocates who are… what, exactly?

    By my recollection, the Axis of Taxes has been agitating just as long and hard for higher taxes as their anti-tax foes have been resisting them. But more successfully. Taxes are going up in Virginia this year, not down — a fact that apparently has escaped the notice of the Campbell Ave. crew. Likewise, if the anti-taxers “refused even to consider” tax increases, what can be said of the Axis of Taxes? The pro-tax crowd has just as steadfastly “refused even to consider” any transportation strategy that doesn’t entail higher taxes: strategies such as congestion pricing, an end to government mass-transit monopolies and, most important, reform of human settlement patterns to encourage fewer and shorter automobile trips.

    At least the “anti-tax ideologues” passed legislation that restructures the way in which state and local governments build and maintain roads. The changes, though shamefully under-reported by the press, are comprehensive and far reaching. By contrast, the Axis of Taxes never relinquished its monomaniacal advocacy of tax-build, tax-build as the solution for all transportation ills. With the exception of Gov. Timothy M. Kaine, tax advocates never offered one solution that didn’t require mo’ money. Not one.

    Yes, the punitive fines are an abomination, and I’m betting that they will be repealed eventually. But they might never have been necessary if the Axis of Taxes and its enablers in the punditry hadn’t taken such a hard line and had thought more creatively about how to improve mobility and accessibility.


  • Eeeeee! We’re Not Growing Fast Enough!

    Here’s a novel predicament: Virginia Beach city council members are worried because they’re experiencing too little residential growth.

    Reports Dierdre Fernandes with the Virginian-Pilot: “When City Council members approved increased development in the Princess Anne area, they assumed that hundreds of high-cost homes would quickly replace the woods and soybean fields and help pay for much-needed road improvements.”

    That hasn’t happened.

    In 2003, the City Council approved up to 3,000 homes for the transition area, 9,600 acres between the suburban north and rural south.

    In the past four years, the council has allowed for 1,376 potential homes. But by the month’s end, 50 are expected to have been sold. That’s far less than the 700 homes Beach officials projected would be generating tax money by this point. …

    The transition area funding plan had called for a portion of real estate revenue from projects … to be set aside for road projects in Princess Anne. A city analysis showed that the overall development in the transition area could pay for itself and create a $187 million surplus in tax revenue.

    Residential development a good thing? Virginia Beach must be using a different econometric model from the localities in Northern Virginia. Somebody needs to revisit some core assumptions guiding their growth-management policies.

    (Hat tip to reader Steve Horton for this story.)

  • Whatever Else You Do, Do NOT Think about Elephants!

    Edith White, president of the Hampton Roads branch of the Urban League, says apology resolutions and expressions of regret for slavery, in Virginia and in other states, are a step in the right direction. According to the Associated Press, White hopes that the resolutions will “get more people talking about race.”

    Yeah, that’s a big problem in our society today, isn’t it? Not enough talking about race.

    Supposedly, it’s conservatives like me who are obsessed with race. In truth, people like Edith White — and, it appears, Associated Press reporter Kim O’Brien Root — are far more fixated on peoples’ racial identity than I’ll ever be.

    In raising our son, now nine, my wife and I never used racial classifications. We never described our African-American neighbors as “black” as a way to distinguish between us and them. We never referred to athletes or entertainers on television as “black.” We never alluded to our fellow citizens as “black” or “negro” or “African American.” Race may be a political reality in our society, but we wanted to raise Jamie to be color blind.

    I think we succeeded. By the time he was six or seven, Jamie did begin to observe and comment upon the fact that some people had darker skin tones than we did. It was a matter of curiosity, though, not one of substance. Lacking a vocabulary to describe “blacks,” he invented his own phrase, one we never used: “dark-skinned people.” To this day, I am proud to say, race has never been a factor in his interaction with friends, peers and teachers.

    As old as I am, I find that it takes an act of will to ignore race. Our society is so obsessed with the issue that I’m reminded of the old joke, “Whatever else you do, don’t… repeat, do NOT… think about elephants!” The harder you try not to think about elephants (or race), the more you will think about them. My son is learning about the history of slavery and the mistreatment of African Americans in his school. As he gets older he, too, will get caught up in the U.S. obsession with race. But I am hopeful that as an adult, he will find all the fuss about skin color to be baffling. I hope that he not only will judge people by the content of their character but find the hue of a man’s skin to be as incidental as the color of his hair or his eyes.

    So, I totally disagree with Edith White. I think we need to talk less about race. We need to talk more about the kind of personal values and public policies that will enable everyone, regardless of race, to participate fully in our society. The drum-beat of race, race, race around the clock only reinforces the invidious distinction that the Edith Whites of the world supposedly deplore.

    Of course, that is not entirely accidental. The people who gain the most from the obsession with race are not the old-timey southern racists who want to “keep blacks in their place,” but those who gain politically from maintaining a sense of black grievance and alienation, and those who nurture a sense of moral superiority over those omni-present racists lurking in the shadows. I have no sympathy for those people whatsoever. They are leechers of blood and peddlers of snake oil, prolonging the very illness they seek to heal.


  • Mixed Grades for the New Mixing Bowl

    After eight years of work and $676 million, the Springfield mixing bowl connecting Interstate 95 with the Washington Beltway is complete. But there is growing concern, reports the Washington Post’s Eric Weiss, that the interchange’s 50 ramps and 24 lanes are so confusing that they could be creating safety problems.

    Intuitively, people think that using the right-hand lane will take them to the right. Often, however, fly-over ramps cross the Interstate and take them in the opposite direction.

    Weiss quotes commuter John Ulaszek of Arlington County: “It’s like putting the hot and cold knobs on the opposite side of the sink, and people can’t understand why they just got scalded.”

    Dangerous driving occurs as drivers figure out their mistake at the last moment and cross several lanes of traffic.

    The Virginia Department of Transportation contends that the number of accidents has declined, and that traffic should move more smoothly as locals get accustomed to the mixing bowl’s eccentricities. VDOT is watching the situation carefully and adjusting signage as appropriate.

    A couple of months ago, I had my first encounter with the Springfield interchange. I was driving from Richmond to Washington D.C., planning to take Interstate 395 as I had for many, many years. I stuck to the left-hand land, as I had for many, many years. This time, however, I was whisked off to the Beltway, heading towards Maryland. By the time I figured out what was going on — I often zone out while driving, so it may have taken me longer than someone who was more alert — the Woodrow Wilson Bridge was looming ahead and there was no way to turn around!

    The second time I ventured through the Mixing Bowl I paid more careful attention and negotiated the spaghetti works without incident. I suspect VDOT is right: After taking a wrong turn and ending up in the wrong state, most people will approach the interchange more gingerly the second time around. Eventually, traffic flows should improve. My elderly mother, who has experienced difficulties of her own, is less sanguine, however. She regards the interchange as just another example of the general incompetence and malaise overtaking our society.

  • INSIGHTS AND SILLINESS

    Deep in the comments on the post “THOSE LIVING IN OLD GLASS HOUSES…, Jim Bacon makes an important point โ€“ as he frequently does.

    “As I see it, localities (or Regions and the organic components of Regions , if we had governance reform) would not have any more power to create Balanced Communities than they do today. Indeed, they might well have less. But they would apply a different conceptual framework to their planning of where and how to invest public resources. And they would be more proactive in creating Communities that provided for a Balance of activities within close proximity rather than a landscape of residential and commercial monocultures.” [Capitalization and italics added for clarity.]

    It is not the scope or array of governance powers that is lacking, the problem is the level at which they are exercised โ€“ or the level they are now allocated but not intelligently exercised.

    The evolution of functional and sustainable settlement patterns does not require more “powers.” The U.S. and state constitutions grant plenty of powers to governments โ€“ and reserve appropriate rights to individuals.

    The problem is establishing a Balance between community (public) responsibilities and private rights (privileges).

    With respect to land use controls, the issue is the level of application: The Level of Control must be at the Level of Impact.

    “Well.” you say, “most important actions have many levels of impact.” Very true, so citizens need a sophisticated system that shares key decisions with appropriate weight for each level of impact.

    At this point there is no governance structure at most of the levels of impact. The organic structure of human settlement pattern, and thus of contemporary society, is not reflected by the governance structure.

    “Oh!” you say, “that would be too cumbersome.”

    Give me a break! If the existing system worked, then for starters, citizens would not face the:

    Mobility and Access Crisis

    Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis

    Helter Skelter Crisis

    Wealth Gap Crisis

    Energy Crisis

    Balance of Payments Crisis

    Retirement and Health Benefits Crisis

    Food Security Crisis

    Communicable Disease Crisis

    Species Diversity Crisis

    Personal and Community Security Crisis requiring a War on Terrorism

    And the slide toward entropy.

    Did we leave any out?

    The three levels of governance was not enough for an agrarian society in 1789 and it is surely not enough now.

    Existing land use controls are based on a 1926 conception of reality that included a cloudy understanding of the impact of the Industrial Revolution as well as a Roaring 20s conception of the evolution from an agrarian society and the emergence of the Autonomobile in a process overseen by Herbert Hoover.

    The 1926 land use control concept is based on an ideal of separation, not Balance. The locus of overt land use controls is at the municipal level but many other laws, regulations, policies and programs are scattered at all three levels. (Four levels with counties, and five with scattered special district authorities that vary from state to state.)

    In the 1960s when we drafted an alternative conception of the state enabling legislation [See 21 Syracuse Law Review 375 (1969)] we did not add new powers. We just reallocated them and established systems to share responsibility and move the level of decision to the level of impact.

    The one tangible product that grew from this work was our Adirondack land use control system. This system is still working today. It is not perfect by a long shot, but the Adirondacks do not look like West Virginia or the Ozarks or even most of the Rockies. It was a step in the right direction but few further steps have been taken.

    The simple guideline is: Level of Control at the Level of Impact

    In his comment, Jim Bacon was responding to a comment by a regular commentor on Bacon’s Rebellion Blog. In a later comment on the post “GRAPHIC PROOF” this same individual demonstrates why it is so difficult to achieve fundamental change when there are so many smart folks that live in human settlement patterns and who believe themselves to be experts.

    In framing a hypothetical, he states: “Now the land is sub-divided into 20 one acre lots. The reason that these lots are one acre is because THAT’S WHAT THE MARKET IS BUYING.” (Emphasis in the original post.)

    The emphasis in the post is intended to dispute the view that, if given a choice, buyers (“the market”) favor by a wide margin Balanced, diverse dwelling options.

    I am sure a lot of developers and builders got a chuckle from the “WHAT THE MARKET IS BUYING” declaration. Those who I heard from did.

    Developers supply sites and builders build houses because of the outcome of running a complex (but often informal) calculation. The base equation balances of greatest return in the shortest time frame with lowest risk.

    This calculation includes, sometimes fuzzy and sometimes incorrect understandings of:

    Complex land use control environments noted above

    Complex municipal governance and political dynamics

    Land assembly and transfer practices skewed by amateur and professional speculators

    Loan conditions established by badly informed capital markets

    Complex labor, subcontractor, supplier and material availability relationships

    Uninformed and misled buyers

    Other factors too numerous to mention

    To cover their mistakes and minimize their risk developers and builders spend billions on advertising to reinforce myths and misconceptions of buyers.

    What is the reality of the market?

    For 40 years Same Builder / Same House / Different Location (SB / SH / DL) studies have shown a strong market preference for dwellings in locations with balance, diversity and close proximity to jobs, services, recreation and amenity, as provided by the best of the Planned New Communities.

    The failure of Planned New Community developers has had almost nothing to do with the market acceptance of the product except where the project location is very bad โ€“ in other words, locations where there was no near term prospect of achieving a J / H / S / R /A Balance.

    The SB / SH / DL reality is why many builders are shifting to “New Urbanist” projects and to “Traditional Neighborhood Developments” or at least advertising them as such. The primary problems with these developments is not the ideals, it is the location, scale and mix of uses that preclude achieving Balance. (Reminder for Larry: “New Urbanist” has almost nothing to do with New Urban Region.)

    For 25 year S/PI has been using SB / SH / DL studies in the context of Regional Metrics and radial analysis to show the market reality of location, scale and mix imperatives.

    One last point:

    The supposed “American Dream” of scattered monocultures of the single family detached dwellings on large lots makes up a small percentage of total dwellings but is a major contributor to settlement pattern dysfunction.

    As we recall, a study in Maryland found that 12 percent of the new houses over a 20-year period caused 80 percent of “sprawl.” At S/PI, we do not use that word and thus developed the 87 ยฝ Percent Rule, the fifth of the Five Natural Laws of Human Settlement Patterns.

    EMR