• 2007: A Pissant Little Drought By Historical Standards

    As your front law withers from the effects of prolonged drought and unseasonably high temperatures, just be glad you didn’t live in Virginia in 1607. It turns out that the Jamestown settlers had it a lot worse. As you prepare to dine on turkey this Thanksgiving, just remember: 400 years ago, Capt. John Smith and his buddies were starving.

    Several years ago, Debra Willard, a Reston-based paleoecologist, and her colleagues at the U.S. Geological Survey analyzed sediment cores from around the Chesapeake Bay, using pollen and dinoflagellate cysts (a type of algae) as indicators of regional precipitation, estuarine salinity and dissolved oxygen. They found that the Bay region, over the past several thousand years, has gone through broad cycles of wet and dry periods. These dry periods lasted for centuries: the first from 200 B.C. to 300 A.D., the second from 800 to 1200 A.D., with two more extended dry intervals around 1400 and 1600 A.D., she wrote in “Late-Holocene climate and ecosystem history from Chesapeake Bay sediment cores, USA.”

    The first English settlers in North America apparently had the bad luck to establish colonies during a period of severe drought, according to S. Fred Singer and Dennis T. Avery in their book, “Unstoppable Global Warming.” The settlers at Roanoke Colony in North Carolina arrived in 1587, they write. Tree ring data indicate the most extreme growing-season drought in 800 years.

    “This drought persisted for 3 years, from 1587 to 1589, and is the driest 3-year episode in the entire 800-year construction. The tree ring reconstruction also indicates that the settlers of Jamestown Colony had the monumental bad luck to arrive in April 1607 during the driest 7-year period in 770 years.”

    Prolonged droughts have been a feature of the Mid-Atlantic climate for millennia. I could find no mention of anything comparable to 1607 drought conditions in the 400 years since. Apparently, we’re still basking in the wet curve of the climatic cycle. But it may not be long before we swing back to another extended dry period.

    I could handle the change if Virginia wound up with a climate like southern California. But if we combine years of drought with the same old summer heat and mugginess, I just may have to move to New Zealand.


  • The Mother of All Privatizations

    Del. Harry R. “Bob” Purkey, R-Virginia Beach, wants to explore the idea of privatizing Virginia’s ports. He plans to ask the General Assembly to study whether privatization is in the state’s best interest, according to the Associated Press.

    Port Authority Executive Director Jerry A. Bridges raised the possibility of privatization in May. More recently, John G. Milliken, the Port Authority’s chairman, has confirmed that the board has discussed the option.

    To my mind, there is only one conceivable reason to oppose the idea: If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Virginia’s ports — which include marine terminals in Norfolk, Portsmouth and Newport News and the intermodal Virginia Inland Port in Front Royal — has been growing steadily and gaining East Coast market share.

    Here’s the rub: The port’s competitiveness is constrained by transportation bottlenecks on Interstate 64 and U.S. 460 leading out of Hampton Roads. The Commonwealth lacks the money to upgrade those arteries, and it’s not clear how long it will take the Hampton Roads Transportation Authority, with tolls and a modest flow of locally generated taxes, to get the projects built. The general public has exhibited little stomach to pay higher taxes and tolls for the benefit of the region’s maritime interests.

    The solution seems simple: Sell the ports to private interests and use the proceeds to upgrade the transportation infrastructure required to serve the ports. Pension funds, insurance companies and private investment groups have demonstrated an increasing appetite for investing in public infrastructure. The value of the port would be measured in the billions of dollars. That’s serious money, and it could pay for a lot of transportation upgrade.


  • Fox at the Forum

    Former Mexican President Vincente Fox opened his address to the Richmond Forum last night with an encomium to the Juans, the Marias, the Joses and all the other brave Mexicans who have immigrated to the United States to work hard and build a better life for themselves and their families. It was a heart-felt and effective gesture (and one that he probably has used all over the United States, wherever he has plugged his book, “Revolution of Hope: The Life, Faith and Dreams of a Mexican President.”) Though speaking in English and not his native language, Fox was engaging and charismatic. It was easy to see how he became the first Mexican politican to break the political monopoly of the Institutional Revolutionary Party.

    For Americans, Fox is an especially effective advocate for the Marios and Marias in the United States because, unlike many Latin politicians, he loves the U.S. and he holds this country up to its own ideals. His grandfather was an Irish-German who sought his fortune in Mexico during the second half of the 19th century, worked hard and became a large landowner before a revolutionary government expropriated 90 percent of his property. A successful corporate executive who rose to the head of Coca-Cola Mexico before his entry into politics, Fox also is an unabashed champion of free markets and free trade, which he regards as the tonic to the authoritarianism and economic nationalism that prevented Latin America from sharing in global economic progress for most of the 20th century.

    Fox speaks of the “American Dream,” which is shared by all peoples of the Americas, not just the United States of America. “Immigrants are people that come here to work, come here to contribute to this economy and to this great nation. Immigrants are loyal to the land that opened their arms to them,” he said, as reported by the Times-Dispatch. (Bizarrely, the T-D devoted its lede and half the article to the fact that Fox thinks the U.S. should pull out of Iraq, a point that was utterly tangential to his discussion of free trade and immigration.)

    Far from throwing up walls between Mexico and the U.S., Fox wants to see the two countries grow closer together. He would like to build upon the North American Free Trade Agreement by negotiating common customs agreements between Mexico, the U.S., and Canada, much as the European Union has done. He would like to see all North Americans share a common passport. Ultimately, he suggests, they could share a common currency.

    Mexico has made tremendous economic progress since a massive devaluation of the peso in the 1990s caused massive economic suffering, Fox said. The key has been a stable currency and open borders that ended the country’s economic isolation and forced Mexican enterprises to adapt to global competition. Mexican standards of living have risen dramatically since then, he said.

    Fox acknowledges that the United States has a legitimate issue with people who enter the country illegally, but he says the answer isn’t building walls. Congress needs to develop mechanisms, like guest worker programs, that allow Mexicans (and other Hispanics) to work and reside legally in the U.S., and then return home.

    In sum, Fox appealed to the best part of the (U.S.) American character in asking for more sympathy for his fellow countrymen. He did not label the anti-illegal movement as xenophobic or racist. As such, he was a far more effective ambassador for his people than he would have been had he embraced the hostile, don’t-give-an-inch rhetoric so widespread in the pro-illegal movement.

    I have a question for those who profess so much concern for the plight of Hispanics: Why don’t they support an extension of the NAFTA free trade agreements to Central America, the Caribbean and Latin America, as Fox advocates? Why shouldn’t the United States help other countries to follow the path of Mexico, reform their economies and create a sustainable prosperity — so people don’t have to leave their homelands in the first place?

    Don’t white, liberal elites feel compassion toward Hispanics when they’re stuck in their home countries, victims of self-defeating government policies and U.S. trade barriers? Or is it only when Hispanics come to the United States, where they can be herded onto the liberal plantation and help Democrats lock up electoral dominance for the next 50 years, that they are worthy of sympathy?


  • Chesterfield’s Funny Illegal Alien Figures

    Joining the Hispanic-bashing craze, Chesterfield County officials will hold a public hearing Nov. 14 to get public comment on โ€œillegal immigrantsโ€ whom county officials claim cost more than $2 million annually in local services.

    This expense to local taxpayers is apparently so profound that county officials are considering a variety of punitive measures to stop the barbarians at the gate. Under consideration are requiring Chesterfield business owners to certify that they do not hire illegal immigrants before they can obtain business licenses and zoning strictures to prevent illegals from living chock-a-block in houses or apartments.

    The point of the hearing seems to be to provide a venue for public outcry on illegal aliens, whether informed or not, so that county supervisors can proceed with the anti-alien crusade. Chesterfield is predominately white and Republican so it may be no surprise that it is a member of the 20 city and county informal vigilante association designed to blunt to invasion of illegals. It doesnโ€™t matter if the onslaught is real or imagined.

    The basis of the Nov. 14 hearing is a report sent to the Board of Supervisors on Aug. 16 by County Administrator James J.L. Stegmaier outlining the cost estimates of the illegal alien burden and what can be done. As a Chesterfield resident and a small business owner (albeit without any employees), I take special interest in the matter. So, I studied Stegmaierโ€™s report, found some holes, and called Don Kapel, the countyโ€™s press spokesman. โ€œIt is amorphous,โ€ he admitted. โ€œNobody knows how many illegal immigrants might be here.โ€

    He referred me to Rebecca Dixson, an assistant county administrator who played a key role in assembling the report. I called her about four times and never got called back. So, dear readers please know I tried to get a response from the county, but was unsuccessful.

    Letโ€™s get down to brass tacks:

    ยท The report says that, based on 2006 figures, illegal immigrants cost the county about $1.3 million in direct costs plus another $737,000 in indirect costs. โ€œStaff has estimated the potential local cost of providing selected services to those individuals deemed to be in the county illegally. These figures are estimates only, determined by each department using reasonable assumptions,โ€ the report says. I could not get an explanation from the county about what โ€œreasonable assumptionsโ€ are.

    ยท The biggest single costs are health ($310,000), but the report provided no explanation of how this figure was obtained. In addition, about $409,000 in expenses supposedly came from poor illegal immigrants who used emergency room services in the county. The county contacted the Virginia Department of Medical Assistance Services and learned that total indigent emergency room use in the county was $629,500. Although the report admits, โ€œdata is not kept on this,โ€ the county, nonetheless, attributed up to 70 percent of the indigent use of emergency care by illegal aliens resulting in the $409,000 figure. This is a โ€œstaffโ€ estimate but no information was given on how it is based. Did someone check the patientsโ€™ passports and visas or were the patients simply dark-skinned and spoke Spanish?

    ยท Illegal immigrants are apparently bad drivers who donโ€™t pay their fines. Aliens here without documents racked up unpaid fines worth $336,840, the study says. This is based on another โ€œstaff estimateโ€ that 31 percent of the total outstanding fines are the result of illegal immigrants. I could not learn where the 31 percent number came from and the report did not say.

    ยท Illegal immigrants were said to be responsible for $230,000 in Local Jail expenses. No explanations were given. However, the jail does get reimbursed for illegals picked up while their documents are reviewed or for deportation by the federal Immigration and Customs Enforcement Bureau, which is the sole government agency that is really tasked with cracking down on illegal aliens. Since 2003, the county has received $145,000 from ICE for this. โ€œStaff estimates that six to 10 illegal aliens are now being picked up monthlyโ€ as a result of the joint ICE program, the report says. A couple of points here: Is that a tremendous number given the countyโ€™s size of about 300,000? Also, the jail has been stuffed with as many as 400 inmates at any time. Ten aliens isnโ€™t a lot. Whatโ€™s more if presumably illegal aliens are already in jail, why do we need extra measures like having business owners certify they donโ€™t hire illegals?

    So it goes. Dear readers, do you see a major epidemic here? Or do you see a politically-charged report with a lot of squishy โ€œstaff estimates?โ€ I tend to see the latter.

    The situation reminds me of what life was like in the Communist Soviet Union where I worked as a U.S. news correspondent in the 1980s. In that police state, Soviet citizens were required to carry internal passports at all times and these had the notorious โ€œLine Fiveโ€ which listed โ€œnationality.โ€ Being โ€œJewishโ€ or โ€œUzbekโ€ was considered a nationality but having it so listed meant one was more likely to be refused work or a university position.

    The Kremlin had another trick to keep the unwashed from the predominately Slavic (read โ€œwhiteโ€) and desirable cities such as Moscow or Leningrad. To live legally in those places, one had to have a โ€œpropiskaโ€ or living permit. It was nearly impossible to get one by yourself. So, there were literally millions of phony marriages set up, whereby, for a covert fee, a couple would marry. Since one of the couple had the desired โ€œpropiska,โ€ that meant that the other partner could get one too. When they married, bingo, they divorced, but both kept their desired propiskas.

    Of course, Chesterfield County isnโ€™t the Soviet Union, at least not yet. It may be some time before the Board of Supervisors considers internal county passports and living permits. But what is sad is that a lot of emotion will be vented Nov. 14 without much factual basis. And the Chesterfield supervisors likely will proceed with measures that are throwbacks to some ugly parts of Virginiaโ€™s history when the color of oneโ€™s skin was an obsession.


  • Roanoke Moving Toward an “Economy 4.0” Economic Development Strategy

    The Roanoke Valley Economic Development Partnership is stretching its definition of “economic development” in its updated plan for the region. Having raised nearly $6. 8 million, the Partnership has identified these uses for the money:

    1. Business Growth. Recruit new businesses, promote entrepreneurship, and foster the growth of existing businesses.
    2. Image Building. Deliver good news about the region to change current perceptions.
    3. Asset Development. Improve the region’s quality-of-life amenities in order to attract young professionals to the area.

    Particularly noteworthy is the focus on recruiting “young professionals” to the area. The Roanoke region, unlike Northern Virginia, is not suffering from out-of-control growth. Indeed, population growth is stagnant. A modest increase in the population will not precipitate the negative results — congestion, unaffordable housing, loss of open space, higher taxes — experienced by Northern Virginia.

    Said Dan Carson, vice president of Appalachian Power: “We are losing good people to other communities in Virginia that have figured out how to improve their offerings and how to market the whole package of what an area can offer. Charlottesville, Lynchburg, Richmond all are experiencing higher growth. There is no reason we can’t do the same in Roanoke. We have an aggressive plan to use these funds to create a better ‘package’ that will appeal to people and businesses.”

    As I have stated repeatedly, there is no value in population growth for sake of population growth. If Roanoke had demonstrated the ability to climb the ladder of increasing value-added economic activity in such as way as to increase the income of the region’s inhabitants, it wouldn’t need to recruit outside business, much less outside people. Unless you’re a member of the local Growth Machine, who cares if the population is growing or not?

    However, according to data I published in “Peak Performance in a Flat World,” the Roanoke region has increased its per capita income only marginally faster than the nation as a whole over the past four decades. Given the world-class research taking place in Virginia Tech only 30 miles away, Roanoke has tremendous potential to reinvent itself as a dynamic, knowledge-based community. The inability to recruit young professionals — could we be talking about Virginia Tech graduates here? — limits the ability of entrepreneurial start-ups to grow. That’s not exactly what Carson said, but that’s what I’m reading between the lines.

    The essence of the “Economy 4.0” economic development paradigm is shifting the focus from recruiting business to creating an environment in which businesses can recruit and retain the creative-class knowledge workers they need to maintain a competitive edge. That’s the direction Roanoke is moving in. Bravo!


  • In Case You Haven’t Overdosed Yet on Abuser Fees…

    John Knapp and W. Grace Ng, both with the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia, have written an article, “Virginia Abuser Driver Fees: An Abuse of Fines?” in Virginia Tech’s latest edition of “Issues & Answers.”

    Knapp and Ng cover some familiar ground, but they also unearth some new dimensions to the debate, particularly on the fiscal side. They illuminate the process by which the General Assembly estimated the Abuser Fees would yield as much as $50 million a year, identify the assumptions that went into the calculations, and recount the experience of other states in collecting the fees. According to data in the article, Virginia could raise a comparable amount of money by increasing the gasoline tax by one penny per gallon.

    Among the authors’ conclusions:

    Public policy that attempts to merge the goals of revenue generation and deterrence of bad driving via fines and fees represents a contradiction. Fines clearly have a role to play in improving driving. Virginia is probably overdue for an objective appraisal of how its traffic fines are working and how they might be improved. But the goal of improving driving should not be merged with the goal of raising revenue. The revenue should be a byproduct, not the central goal of the fees and fines.

    In theory, there is no reason why fines and penalty fees should not be considered an important revenue source. But in practice, they are not an efficient or effective method of raising money because of behavioral changes that reduce collections and raise other costs.


  • An Apology to Tim Kaine

    On Wednesday, I posted a blog questioning the commitment of Gov. Timothy M. Kaine to a “green” agenda in areas where it comes into hard conflict with the backers of Business As Usual. (See “The Greenwashing of the Kaine Administration.”) I wasn’t entirely fair. I need to set the record straight, at least regarding the issue of conservation and electricity re-regulation.

    I noted that Kaine had signed a re-regulation bill that was highly favorable to the electric utilities. I asked, “Will he accede to a Big Grid electric power infrastructure, or will he back meaningful efforts to evolve Virginia’s power grid into a more decentralized system with small-scale and renewable power producers?”

    Well, the fact is — and I should have remembered because I covered it in this blog — the conservation and renewable-energy elements contained in the bill, modest though they may be, were inserted at Kaine’s behest. As we are reminded in an article, “Virginia’s Energy Policy,” published under the governor’s name in Virginia Tech’s “Issues & Answers,” Kaine added the following amendments to the re-regulation bill:

    โ€ข Place a greater emphasis on electric-generating plant performance, customer service, and utility operating efficiency when calculating allowable return on equity for utilities.

    โ€ข Provide a greater incentive for nuclear, carbon capture-compatible clean coal, and renewable energy plants (lower-carbon technologies).

    โ€ข Increase the energy efficiency goal to 10 percent from 5 percent.

    โ€ข Strengthen requirements for use of renewable sources in electricity generation.

    Kaine also issued Executive Order 48, which contained a number of conservation initiatives in state government, and he signed a four-day tax holiday for Energy Star appliances.

    I still stand by my other observations in the post, but I was unfair to suggest that Gov. Kaine was less than dedicated to the cause of energy conservation. My apologies.


  • Donkeys and Elephants Down to the Wire

    Clayton Roberts, with the Virginia Foundation for Research and Economic Education, provides as concise a summary of the 2007 elections as anything I’ve read in the newspapers. I can add little insight, so I reproduce verbatim some of his comments made in an e-mail distribution today.

    Partisan control of the state Senate is up for grabs with at least eight races now polling within the margin of error. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control of the Senate for the first time since 1995. Privately, some Republicans concede they would do well to manage a 20-20 tie in the 40-member Senate, although the GOP has gained recent momentum in several races, largely on the strength of the immigration issue. One thing seems certain: control of the Senate will be by the narrowest of margins. Given a tie, Republican Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling would probably give his party the organizational edge to control committees and the floor.

    Republicans will retain control of the House, although stalwarts on both sides of the aisle agree it’s likely the Democrats will pick up a few seats. Estimates vary from a net gain of two to six seats for House Democrats, who hope to come within striking distance of a majority in two years. Substantive gains by the minority party could have some in the House leadership looking over their shoulders and counting votes to secure their posts when the new Assembly convenes in January.

    Campaign spending in this election cycle is spiraling upward. Candidates are spending nearly twice as much as they did four years ago and total legislative campaign war chests now exceed $55 million. That is a staggering sum of money when you consider that no more than 30 seats are really in play.

    At least a dozen candidates will raise more than $1 million each for their efforts. In at least two marquee Senate races, total spending will approach $3 million, far surpassing all previous records.

    In the final days, candidates are battling as if in hand-to-hand combat, marshalling their precinct captains and voter turnout troops in the final push to the finish line. In the end, the key races likely will be decided by which candidates do a better job of getting their voters to the polls on November 6.


  • The Political Economy of Growth

    Back in 1976, Harvey Molotch, a University of California-Santa Barbara professor, wrote an essay, “The City as a Growth Machine: Toward a Political Economy of Place.” Molotch argued that coalitions of business elites dominated metropolitan-level politics across the United States. They harnessed the power of government to promote regional growth and development, mold land use outcomes, and increase the value of their real estate interests. Noting the similarities between Molotch’s thesis and my observations in “Who Rules Virginia?”, blogger Richard Layman (“Rebuilding Place in the Urban Space”) brought the essay to my attention.

    “The City as a Growth Machine” helped clarify how I look at the political economy of growth in Virginia. Three decades later, many of Molotch’s observations still ring true. I would modify his thesis, as I will note below, but I think it’s worth reviewing the highlights.

    Writes Molotch: “The political and economic essence of virtually any given locality, in the present American context, is growth.” The desire for growth creates consensus among members of the politically mobilized local elites, however split they might be on other issues, and gives rise to a spirit of civic boosterism.

    “The clearest indication of success at growth is a constantly rising urban-area population,” followed by the expansion of basic industries, a growing labor force, a rising scale of retail and wholesale commerce, more far-flung and increasingly intensive land development, and increased levels of financial activity. Members of the growth coalition augment their wealth by increasing the value of their real estate and enjoying the benefits of an expanding market for their products and services. In addition to the obvious suspects — developers, bankers, construction companies, utilities and the like — Molotch notes that local newspapers and universities often are part of the growth machine.

    Molotch doesn’t seem to regard growth as inherently bad, but he observes — rightly, I believe — that there are both costs and benefits associated with it. As a rule, the growth machine manipulates the political process and levers of government to capture as many of the financial benefits of growth as it can while passing on as many of the costs as possible to the taxpayers and general public. That’s why in Virginia, developers, home builders and contractors dominate the donations to political candidates.

    As growth accelerates, however, liabilities become visible in the form of traffic congestion, increased air and water pollution, the overtaxing of amenities, and, I would add, fiscal stress in the form of overcrowded schools and escalating taxes. Those liabilities, in turn, give rise to anti-growth movements.

    In my observation, anti-growth movements in Virginia have consisted of a splintered and uneasy alliance of taxpayers, NIMBYs and environmentalists bemoaning taxes, congestion and loss of open space. Responding to oft-inarticulate cries of frustration, elected officials have enacted zoning “protections” that have given rise to the scattered, disconnected, low-density pattern of development. “Sprawl” has then created entirely new sets of problems such as unaffordable housing, even more dysfunctional transportation networks and even more pervasive damage to the environment.

    Most local politics in the fast-growth regions of Virginia can be viewed as a tug of war between the “growth machine” and the anti-growth coalitions. In many localities, the anti-growth movement often adopts the rhetoric of environmentalism, although the root motivation of most middle-class suburbanites is typically a desire to uphold home values and preserve once-tranquil lifestyles. In the past decade, anti-growth forces in Virginia have increasingly accepted tenets of the “smart growth” movement, giving them a semblance of philosophical coherence, although deep philosophical schisms persist between those of an “environmentalist” bent and those of a “property rights” persuasion.

    The key ideological prop of the growth machine, argues Molotch, is jobs. Growth brings jobs. That slogan had some potency when unemployment in the United States was a problem, but Virginia has long enjoyed a low jobless rate, and unemployment generally will continue to decline as the Baby Boom generation retires. Indeed, metropolitan regions will evolve from a fixation on addressing unemployment to a fixation on addressing chronic job shortages.

    In the “Economy 4.0” series, I have argued that Virginia needs to redefine economic development. Growth is good — or, at least, it can be. It creates rising incomes and business opportunities. But the goal of “growth” should not be to create jobs for the sake of jobs, especially in regions where there is no shortage, but to raise incomes while restraining jumps in taxes and living costs — in sum, to raise the standard of living. That’s simply not possible if growth and development remains a mechanism by which business elites use the political process to transfer wealth from the public to themselves.


  • The Moderating Growth in Vehicle Miles Traveled

    There is precious little good news to report on the transportation front, but reader Danny Newton has brought to my attention a fascinating article published by the U.S. Department of Transportation with the ungainly title, “The Case for Moderate Growth in Vehicle Miles of Travel: A Critical Juncture in U.S. Travel Behavior Trends.” (I have linked to a PDF file here.)

    While Americans will continue to drive more than in the past, they won’t rack up increased Vehicle Miles Driven at the same prodigious rate as in the past, argues the author, Steven E. Polzin with the Center for Urban Transportation Research at the University of South Florida. The strain on the nation’s transportation system may be less than widely anticipated. But there’s a downside, of course: There is so little slack left in the transportation system that any increases in demand will contribute to congestion.
    The chart above (click on the chart to enlarge) summarizes what’s going on: (1) The population will grow at a slower rate between 2002 and 2025 than between 1977 and 2001; (2) the number of daily trips that people take will plateau; (3) the length of the trips will increase, but not as rapidly; and (4) the total Vehicle Miles Traveled will increase, but at only at 40 percent of the rate in the previous quarter century.

    Here’s the cool part: Most of the change will be painless — the result of demographic shifts.

    • The population is getting older. People tend to do the most driving in the 25-to-50 age bracket. That’s when they’re commuting to work and schlepping their muchkins to activities all around town. The baby boom generation is aging out of that bracket and heading toward retirement, when people drive less.
    • Most women are driving now. The increase in VMT was pushed in recent decades by the increased demand for mobility by women. As women entered the workforce and moved to the suburbs, they needed automobiles to juggle their duties. Most of the women who want to drive now have cars.
    • Shrinking family sizes. Back to the care and feeding of the little monsters. Fewer children translates into less parental chauffeuring.
    • Mode shifts. Past increases in VMT were driven in part by shifts to cars from other modes: walking, biking, carpooling and mass transit. Those shifts appear to be bottoming out.
    • On the other hand… Travel demand is correlated with income and free time. Incomes are rising and people are enjoying more free time. (While Americans are spending more hours working and commuting, they are spending less time on family care and personal care.) With more money and time to burn, people engage in more leisure travel.

    Concludes Polzin:

    Collectively, this body of data provides a compelling case for anticipating that VMT growth is moderating. However … the apparent unrelenting growth in travel time budgets and growing trips lengths may offset some of the factors that would appear to dampen VMT growth pressures. …

    The premise that the reserve capacity in our system has been nearly fully absorbed and travelers have made the easy adjustments in travel departure times and route choices to utilize the high performing roadway segments, suggests that subsequent increases in demand may result in proportionally more severe consequences in terms of congestion levels and declining speeds.


  • The Greenwashing of the Kaine Administration

    Addressing an environmental summit in Washington, D.C., yesterday, Gov. Timothy M. Kaine called for Virginia to take the lead in conserving electricity and promoting renewable fuels. “We don’t want to have to wait until the prices rise dramatically to conserve (energy),” he said. “That’s a significant challenge.”

    The governor called for more research on environmentally friendly building construction and safe nuclear technologies as well as a regional climate change initiative to reduce greenhouse gases, reports the Associated Press.

    Kaine is saying all the right things, but he hasn’t offered anything specific. Here’s the question. Now that he’s completed the state’s long-term energy plan, an impressive document outlining a broad spectrum of strategies, what will he actually do? Which of the plan’s many proposals will he try to implement? What legislation will the governor propose for the upcoming session of the General Assembly, now only two months away?

    Kaine has made big promises to the conservation/environmental lobby before. During his gubernatorial campaign, he proposed giving municipal governments more power to block re-zoning requests if the transportation system didn’t exist to handle the traffic. Many credited that proposal with pushing him over the top among growth-weary voters in Northern Virginia. But Kaine abandoned that controversial idea in the face of aggressive lobbying by the home builders.

    Many conservationists felt betrayed, but they didn’t immediately abandon hope: Kaine had appointed Scott Kasprowicz, who is closely aligned with the Piedmont Environmental Council, as deputy secretary of transportation. But Kasprowicz has quietly left the administration in frustration. Further, while the governor talks about Global Warming, we don’t hear any talk about linking rezoning and transportation adequacy in order to curb “suburban sprawl.” To the contrary, what I’m hearing now is that the home builders, emboldened, will push to roll back proffers, a mechanism by which developers help offset municipal costs related to growth.

    Here’s my hypothesis regarding the governor and the environment: Kaine will dish out lots of feel-good rhetoric and support lots of green policies — such as a cap-and-trade program for carbon-dioxide at the federal level — in areas where he won’t get any push-back from developers, home builders and other industry lobbies that bankroll Virginia political campaigns. In other words, we’ll see “green building” programs, support for Chesapeake Bay clean-up (paid for by the general taxpayer, of course), and other initiatives that threaten no vested interests.

    Perhaps my interpretation is unfair and off base. I hope so. Here are the key issues by which we can gauge the sincerity of Kaine’s green rhetoric:

    • Growth management. If the home builders push for a rollback of proffers, where will Kaine stand? Will he resurrect his idea to link rezonings with adequate transportation capacity?
    • Electric re-regulation. Kaine signed re-regulation legislation that is highly favorable to Dominion Virginia Power. Will he accede to a Big Grid electric power infrastructure, or will he back meaningful efforts to evolve Virginia’s power grid into a more decentralized system with small-scale and renewable power producers? (Addendum: In fairness to Gov. Kaine, the conservation and renewable-energy measures included in the 2007 electricity re-regulation bill, modest though they were, were inserted at Kaine’s insistence.)
    • Global warming. If, in the estimation of the Kaine administration, sea levels are rising, what measures will he propose to protect Virginia’s low-lying coastlands? Will he act to curtail development in low-lying areas? Will he re-evaluate expensive road-building projects like the Southeast Expressway that would skirt the low-lying wetlands of Chesapeake and Virginia Beach?

    Needless to say, Virginia’s newspapers aren’t paying attention to any of these issues. But you can count on Bacon’s Rebellion: We will.


  • Hug a Tree, Help Your Heart, Ride a Bike

    Roanoke has launched a bicycle sharing program. It’s not quite the scale of the initiative in Paris, France, with its 10,000 bicycles, but the ShareBike initiative does let people sign out two-wheelers at “between five and 10 area businesses and organizations” to ride wherever pleasure or work takes them, reports the Roanoke Times.

    The rules are simple: Borrow a bike at one location, turn it in at another. One virtue of the program is its low overhead: There are no full-time employees. Organizers hope ShareBike can pay for a planned downtown office by charging $3 to check out a bike for a half-day’s usage and $6 for a day.


  • Dominion Tests Clean Coal Technology

    Dominion is testing new technology at its Brayton Point Power Station in Massachusetts that will convert coal into streams of clean natural gas and carbon dioxide, while eliminating mercury, sulfur and other pollutants. If the technology proves to be commercially viable, and if someone can invent a way to sequester the carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, it would transform the economics of coal-generated electricity. (Read the press release.)

    “The potential of this project to solve two major problems โˆ’ making America more energy independent and reducing emissions of carbon dioxide โ€“ cannot be ignored,” said Mark F. McGettrick, CEO of Dominion Generation. “This technology has the potential to help provide a โ€˜missing linkโ€™ in terms of solving air emissions issues at coal-fired power plants. … There are proven and commercially available technologies that will sharply reduce emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide, mercury and particulates. But thus far there has not been any commercially proven way to separate carbon dioxide as a first step toward capturing and sequestering those emissions. This technology could make it possible.”

    Dominion should be lauded for pursuing this clean-coal alternative. We will all benefit if the power company finds a way to make coal an environmentally acceptable fuel that emits no greenhouse gases. But let us not be distracted from a larger point: This technology supports the Big Grid electric power model based on monster power plants and gargantuan transmission lines. Virginia needs to move towards a distributed grid system that integrates small-scale power sources at the community, neighborhood and residential level.

    Question for economic developers: Dominion is investing $25 million in the demonstration plant and related R&D Center of Excellence. Why Massachusetts and not Virginia? Did anyone in Virginia know this was coming down the pike?


  • Who Rules Virginia?

    In the early 1970s Eugene Ruyle, my Marxist anthropology professor (yes, he really was a self-avowed Marxist) assigned a book, “Who Rules America” by G. William Domhoff, which described the mechanisms by which business elites ruled the country. As one might expect, the book grotesquely over-simplified reality, but it contained elements of undeniable truth.

    As I began writing this blog post, I checked Amazon.com out of curiosity and found that the book has been updated and is still in print. This excerpt from the book description sums up Domhoff’s thesis nicely (my italics) :

    Domhoff argues that the owners and top-level managers in large income-producing properties are far and away the dominant figures in the U.S. Their corporations, banks, and agribusinesses come together as a corporate community that dominates the federal government in Washington and their real estate, construction, and land development companies form growth coalitions that dominate most local governments.

    That second sentence sums up the thrust of the two lead pieces in today’s edition of Bacon’s Rebellion. Peter Galuszka and I teamed up for a mini-version of “Who Rules Virginia?” I wish I’d dusted off my old copy of “Who Rules America?” It might have come in handy when I was writing over the weekend.

    In my column, “The Ruling Party,” I expand upon an argument that should be familiar to readers of this blog. While there may be real differences between Democrats and Republicans on social and cultural issues, both are establishment parties that are virtually indistinguishable in how they work on behalf of the vested business and economic interests that bankroll their political campaigns. When it comes to legislating transportation, land use, energy and the environment, there are no meaningful differences between Ds and Rs — unless it’s the counter-intuitive notion that the Dems are even more beholden to the “growth lobby” than the Republicans.

    Drawing upon data from the Virginia Public Access Project (I genuflect in their general direction), I show who the dominant constituencies in Virginia are, how much they spend on campaign contributions, and how they work to protect Business As Usual — or, as my 60’s-holdover anthro professor would have called it, the “status quo.” The difference between Mr. Ruyle and myself is that I’m not under any illusion that a proletariat revolution is going to solve anything, nor do I demonize business interests for looking out for their own self interest in an era of ever-expanding government power. When everyone else is reaching into the government goody bag, it’s hard to blame business for doing the same.

    But, if we’re ever going to reinvent transportation, health care, schools, human settlement patterns, the energy economy and environmental protections with the goal of making Virginia competitive in the 21st century, we must blast a number of vested interests out of their political pill boxes. (I’ve been watching the “Letters from Iwo Jima,” can you tell?)

    While my story glosses the surface and hits the big themes, Peter’s article, “‘Senator’ Thomas,” hones in on a case study of William G. Thomas, the most influential lobbyist in Virginia. Thomas’ roster of clients is a who’s who of those who rule Virginia — Dominion Virginia Power, Capital One, Smithfield and Genworth (that’s four Fortune 500 companies), not to mention the Home Builders Association of Virginia and other assorted muckety-mucks. Particularly instructive is the web of personal relationships that Thomas has built over the years as a former chairman of the Democratic Party, board member of Dominion and law partner with super-developer John “Til” Hazel.

    Thomas is smooth, gentlemanly, witty — and very much a defender of the business status quo. Incredibly wired into the power structure, he has entre to the highest levels of business and political power. He also has a gift for working through incredibly complex legislation. If he is lobbying in favor of electric re-regulation or against the proffer system, few are the forces that can stand in his way.


  • Fanning the Flames of Rebellion

    Yes, we’re still blowing the burning embers of rebellion in the hopes of igniting a San Diego-sized conflagration (metaphorically speaking) here in Virginia. Read our latest huffing and puffing in the Oct. 29, 2007, edition of the Bacon’s Rebellion e-zine.

    And don’t forget to subscribe, darn it! Don’t miss a single issue.

    “Senator” Thomas
    Uber-lobbyist Bill Thomas shepherds controversial bills through the General Assembly for Virginia’s biggest corporations. Even critics credit him with phenomenal powers.
    by Peter Galuszka

    The Ruling Party
    Forget Dems and Republicans. The people who run Virginia are the vested interests that hire the lobbyists and pass out campaign donations. Their never-changing mission: to butress the status quo.
    by James A. Bacon

    It’s the Network
    Skip the political rhetoric and apply a tech truism to transportation for a clearer view of the challenge.
    by Doug Koelemay

    A Waste of Energy
    Most “energy conservation” initiatives fall short because they don’t address dysfunctional human settlement patterns, the root cause of excess consumption.
    by EM Risse

    Wolf in Sheep’s Clothing
    By bashing the Dulles Greenway, Congressman Frank Wolf purports to stand up for Virginia’s weak and defenseless commuters. In reality, he could be driving off private investment in the state’s highways.
    by Leonard Gilroy

    Still Time for Surprises
    The U.S. Senate race is shaping up as a match between Jim Gilmore and Mark-not-John Warner. But Gilmore doesn’t have a lock on the nomination yet: There is running room to his right.
    by Norm Leahy

    Jo Ann Davis
    1950 – 2007
    by James Atticus Bowden

    Alternate Universe
    There’s one world that participates in a globally connected economy. Then there’s Virginia, which is making a name for itself as a hotbed of nativism.
    by Peter Galuszka

    Harvesting Rainwater
    Rain cisterns are an ancient solution to a still- pervasive problem. Widespread use would stretch urban water resources and temper the impact of storm-water run off.
    by Richard Thornton

    Nice & Curious Questions
    Who Was the Bunny Man? Urban Legends of Virginia
    by Edwin S. Clay III and Patricia Bangs