Bacon's Rebellion

  • A Big Step Forward in Budget Transparency

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    James A. Bacon

    Gov. Timothy M. Kaine has improved the presentation of the FY 2009-2010 budget, making it easier for members of the public to analyze. The old format scattered information for (1) expenditures, (2) number of employee positions and (3) capital outlays. The new format combines them on a single web page. You can view any secretariat, or any department within a secretariat, and see any of the three budget categories with a simple click of a tab.

    Budget pages also link to departmental strategic plans and performance measures. Check out the presentation here. Drill deep and muck around. It’s a tremendous step in the right direction.

    Another step in the right direction would be to adopt a proposal championed by Sen. Ken Cuccinelli, R-Fairfax, which was inspired by the federal government’s http://www.usaspending.gov/. The federal website details information about grants and contracts valued at more than $25,000. For example, you can discover that Virginians received $40 billion in federal contracts in fiscal 2006 for everything from telecommunications services to aircraft carriers.

    Wrote Cuccinelli in a recent press release:

    As part of my effort to make our Commonwealth the most efficiently managed state in the nation, I am introducing legislation this year to create a Virginia counterpart to USASpending.gov. My goal is to give ordinary citizens more opportunities for input into our government by allowing all of us to evaluate where – and how effectively – our tax dollars are being spent. My Virginia budget transparency initiative will bring to our budgeting process a simple tool for the owners of this government – the citizens of Virginia – to determine for themselves where their money is being spent. We require such openness of public companies, why not our own government?

    I’d like to see the specifics of what the website would do, but in the abstract the proposal is an excellent one. Budget transparency should be a top goal of open government. Bloggers of all ideological stripes should support this bill!

  • Interstate 95: Kissing Good-Bye to the Solo Commuter?

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    James A. Bacon

    If your image of the typical commuter heading north up Interstate in the early morning is of a solo driver, then you think like I do. And the odds are, you don’t commute on I-95. Because if you did, you’d know differently. According to the “2006 Commuter Labor Study: Fredericksburg Region,” here’s how the ridership breaks down for Fredericksburg region commuters who head north on Interstate 95 in the morning:

    • Drive alone, 5%
    • Car-Van Pool, 22%
    • Slug, 27%
    • Train, 33%
    • Bus, 11%
    • Other 3%
    I find the drive-alone numbers extraordinarily, even suspiciously, low. But get this — that 2006 study was largely consistent with a Virginia Department of Transportation study showing that about two-thirds of the trips heading north on a Fairfax County portion of the I-95 corridor were made in buses, vans or carpools.

    Bob Burke uncovered both of those studies in an article posted today on the Bacon’s Rebellion website, “Life in the Fast Lane.” I had assigned him to investigate what the impact of the planned HOT lanes would be upon mass transit and shared ridership along the I-95 corridor. Hints in our previous coverage of HOT lanes suggested that the commuting population in the I-95 corridor was served by a large number of private vans and buses. Little did I imagine that shared ridership was so prevalent.

    The Fluor Transurban HOT lane proposal will divert hundreds of millions in toll revenues over the life of the project to support mass transit and traffic demand management. But it’s hard to imagine how it would be possible to increase the shared-ridership market share above current levels. Even if vans, buses and carpools get to use the HOT lanes for free, it seems inconceivable that solo driving would drop below 5% market share. Indeed, you have to wonder if easing congestion might increase the level of solo driving!

    On the encouraging side, though, if the number of people using vans, buses, carpools and rail outnumbers the solo drivers by 92% to 5% along stretches of I-95, the barriers to shared ridership aren’t nearly as high as many of us thought. Nationally, the percentage of people commuting to work alone in their own car runs around 88 percent (see Table 1 on page three). Just imagine the latent capacity that exists in Northern Virginia’s transportation system if I-95 commuting patterns prevailed on Interstate 66, the Dulles Toll Road and the Washington Beltway!
    Update: In the comments section, reader Larry Gross says the survey responses do not remotely reflect his observations of solo ridership on I-95 in the Fredericksburg region. He suggests that the survey may have methodological flaws. I would have to agree.

  • Brace Yourself: The Vehicle Miles Traveled Tax Is Coming

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    James A. Bacon

    Four hundred and fifty drivers in the Research Triangle region will be recruited next year to road test a satellite technology system that might be used one day to replace the gas tax with a tax on every mile we drive, reports the News & Observer.

    North Carolina is one of six states participating in a national study conducted by the University of Iowa Public Policy Center to see if Americans will buy into the idea of paying for roads by the mile, instead of by the gallon.

    “In the future, all of your roads are going to be funded by tolling or vehicle mile taxes,” said Matthew B. Click, a Florida state turnpike official. “Roads are a transportation utility. They are no different from water or sewer or anything else.”

    Autos will be equipped with GPS and computer hardware to track the number of miles they drive and which government jurisdiction they drive through. In all likelihood, we’ll hear objections from civil libertarians worried that Big Brother will be able to track their every movement. It is all but certain that we’ll hear from those opposed to paying for the miles they drive, insisting that some mythical “other” should pay instead. But I agree with Click: Economic logic dictates that tolls and vehicle-mile taxes are the future of transportation finance.

    (Hat tip: Larry Gross.)

  • Stafford’s Slow Motion Suicide

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    James A. Bacon

    Developers of two proposed mixed-use projects in Stafford County have withdrawn their rezoning applications. I shudder for the county’s long-term future. We could be witnessing the formation of what will evolve in 30 to 40 years’ time, into one of Virginia’s worst suburban slums.

    Rob Gollahon, project developer of Stafford Town Station, had envisioned a town center-style community with clustered buildings, narrow streets and a blend of commercial and residential uses. The 1,600-home project would have provided Stafford County with $50 million in proffers toward road improvements, a library and other amenities. Now it’s being planned as a routine subdivision of 144 single-family houses on three-acre lots. Gollahon would not comment on his decision, reports the Free Lance-Star.

    Meanwhile, the developer of Leeland Station, a proposed mixed-use project built around a Virginia Railway Express station, also has withdrawn his zoning application, writes Kafia Hosh. Bacon’s Rebellion had profiled Leeland Station in “Curse of the ‘D’ Word” a year ago. Only a single mixed-use project, The Towne Center of Aquia, is working its way through the Stafford planning department.

    In an ideal world, Stafford wouldn’t have to deal with development pressure. Increased housing along with the retail and commercial space to support it, would be built closer to the urban core of the Washington New Urban Region, closer to where most of the jobs and existing infrastructure are located. In an ideal world, Stafford wouldn’t have to deal with surging population and traffic and attendant strain on public finances, and its citizens wouldn’t have to confront the tough choices they never asked to make.

    But in the world that is, Stafford lies squarely in the path of growth. The Northern Virginia real estate crash or a slowdown in technology-driven employment growth might relieve the pressure for a few years, but there is no escaping the inevitable. Stafford citizens need to to visualize what their county will look like when developed from end to end via by-right development as low-density, cul-de-sac subdivisions and strip shopping centers, all strung along country roads in disconnected pods — with no nucleus, no community center, and no financial contribution from developers whatsoever.

    Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William Counties, as dysfunctional as they are in a regional context, at least have patches of territory that work well on a micro level. But Stafford may well emerge as Virginia’s poster child for dysfunctional human settlement patterns: an entire county that evolved as an amorphous, auto-centric blob. When the newness of today’s construction wears off in 30 to 40 years, Stafford will be saddled with a high cost of public services, inadequate and aging infrastructure, and a paucity of districts worth preserving, removating or reinvesting in.

    The only people who will choose to live in such a place will be people who lack the means to live anywhere else.

  • Business Lobby Has Defensive Agenda for 2008 Session

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    James A. Bacon

    Virginia’s major business lobbies appear to have modest legislative agendas as the 2008 General Assembly nears, and most items at the top of their lists are defensive.

    Businesses are bracing for a rash of legislation relating to illegal immigration, reports Greg Edwards with the Times-Dispatch. The big three associations — the Virginia Chamber of Commerce, the Virginia Manufacturers Association and the Virginia Retail Merchants Association — are united in opposing efforts by lawmakers to solve the illegal immigration problem at the state or local level.

    Immigration, they contend, is an issue that properly falls within the scope of the federal government. A patchwork of local and state immigration laws — some penalizing businesses who hire illegals — would lead to headaches. Said Brett Vassey, president of the VMA: “We don’t need employers to become [immigration] agents.”

    Other business-related issues expected to arise in the 2008 session:

    • Indoor smoking restrictions — the clean lung people will be active again this year, and business will be on the butt end of their initiatives.
    • Workforce training — the business lobby is responding favorably to Gov. Timothy M. Kaine’s plan to consolidated diverse and fragmented training programs under the Virginia Community College System.
    • Transportation — while most legislators are exhausted with the subject, a handful are proposing additional tax increases. Business still would like to see sustainable, long-term funding for new construction.

  • WHAT DRIVES TOO MUCH OF TODAY’S THIRD ESTATE — THE INSTITUTIONAL ESTATE

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    James A. Bacon

    For those who have read PART I and PART II of “The Estates Matrix” and wonder why in PART IV we will make a strong case for Citizens and Households to establish a robust, well informed presence in The Fourth Estate:

    Take a look at Richard Feldman’s Op Ed “A Gun Lobbyist’s Lament: The NRA’s Main Target? Its Members’ Checkbooks.”

    My father was one of the gun owners who Mr. Feldman would like to represent. M. E. Risse died in 1963. I have his NRA life membership pin. Acquiring that membership was one of the most, and perhaps only, extravagance he (and my mother) allowed themselves in the last 30 years of his life.

    EMR

  • SCC Says 10% Conservation Goal Achievable

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    James A. Bacon

    Virginia can meet a legislative goal of cutting overall electric power usage by 10 percent over the coming 15 years, concludes a new study by the State Corporation Commission. The goal can be met by adopting market-based strategies such as “demand side management,” reports Garren Shipley with the Northern Virginia Daily.

    The study spells out how conservation at periods of peak demand can lead to enormous economic efficiencies — reducing both fuel consumption and cutting costs. Writes Shipley:

    Average demand in Virginia at any given time is about 13,000 megawatts, according to the report. But that number spikes by a factor of 2.5 during the hottest hours of the year. Because the grid has to be able to sustain the highest possible usage, utilities — and by extension their customers — wind up paying for a grid that can handle 32,500 megawatts all the time.

    “These peak demands, which last for only about 100 hours per year, determine the required capacity of the utility infrastructure in Virginia,” the authors wrote. …

    During a peak 28-hour demand period during August, the wholesale price of power paid by utility companies rose as high as $500 per megawatt-hour, according to the report. At its very peak, the price reached $1,000 per megawatt-hour. The average price is $57 per megawatt-hour.

    The study, available here, makes a series of recommendations that would move Virginia towards a system that and equip and incentivize residential and commercial customers to shift electric consumption away from periods of peak demand.

  • All We Are Saying… Is Give Freight Rail a Chance

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    James A. Bacon

    Writing for North Carolina’s John Locke Institute, John Hood argues that expanding freight rail should be part of any broader transportation solution. Freight trains are more energy efficient per ton-mile than trucks for moving goods long distances, which reduces the cost of goods in the store, and it takes trucks off the highways, which ameliorates traffic congestion.

    But government policies favor trucking over rail.

    • Taxes. While trucks do pay higher taxes than automobiles, they don’t pay the full cost of the wear and tear they put on the roads. In effect, motorists are subsidizing the trucking industry. By contrast, railroads are responsible for maintaining their own track.
    • Passenger trains. Money-losing Amtrak trains enjoy preference over freight trains for access to limited track. The federal government should divest Amtrak and allow it to negotiate for trackage rights, says Hood. “There should be a clear recognition that freight is the paying customer and deserves as least as much consideration as passenger service running at a substantial loss.:
    • Municipal bonds. Trucks use government infrastructure paid for with tax-exempt bonds. Railroads don’t have access to tax-free capital investment.

    As in Virginia, North Carolina policymakers have been talking a lot lately about rail as an element of a “multi-modal” transportation system. “But their priorities are all out of whack,” says Hood. “Instead of spending scarce time and money pursuing intercity passenger-rail service and other relative trivialities, they ought to take the step necessary to free railroads to serve their paying freight customers more effectively. “

    Maybe the rail lines need to create a catchy acronym to drum up support. Hood playfully suggests TOOT — Taxpayer-Optimal Option for Transportation!

    (Hat tip to Danny Newton.)

  • Boxed In

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    James A. Bacon

    Two weeks ago, I blogged how the real estate crash is threatening Prince William County’s bond rating and prompting county officials to hold off its road-building program. I thought the story was so important that I asked Peter Galuszka to take a more in-depth look.

    In fleshing out Prince William’s dilemma in “Boxed In,” Peter shows how the Board of Supervisors is between the proverbial rock and a hard place. Writes Peter:

    The total units of housing sold from 2006 to 2007 in Prince William County declined 24.65 percent and the total dollar volume declined 33.26 percent. Assessed value of homes overall is down 35 percent, says [Board Chair Corey] Stewart. Meanwhile, revenue from deed recording fees has taken a nose dive as well.

    One thing Prince William isn’t willing to sacrifice is its hard-won AAA bond rating. To keep it intact, bond payments can constitute no more than 10 percent of the county budget. As revenues plunge, supervisors have little choice but to stretch out the schedule of bond issues that voters had approved a few years ago.

    Nobody’s expecting the Comprehensive Transportation Funding and Reform act of 2007 to be much help. The Northern Virginia Transportation Authority is expected to bring in roughly $300 million a year, but only $17 million a year will trickle down to Prince William in the form of discretionary spending.

    Needless to say, raising property taxes is never an attractive option in Republican-dominated Prince William. With thousands of homeowners already facing rising payments as their adjustable rate mortgages reset, a tax hike would be political suicide.

    There’s talk of raising the impact fee on new houses from $30,000 a unit to more than $50,000. But home builders, already wounded by the housing crunch, are talking about rolling back proffers and impact fees. Talk about a battle royale.

    I would concur with the observation of Stewart Schwartz, executive director of the Coalition for Smarter Growth. Supervisors should use the opportunity presented by the growth slowdown to think through the county’s growth strategy. Even when real estate markets return to normal, it’s unlikely that Prince William can return to its heroic go-it-alone strategy for building and financing new roads. Ideally, the supervisors will strive to plan more transportation-efficient development. But even won’t help in the short run: Prince William has a backlog of more than 30,000 houses in the development pipeline.

    Prince William is boxed in. There is no easy way out. It’s going to get ugly.

  • Uh, Oh, More Cost Overruns

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    James A. Bacon

    A sign of the times, as reported by Peter Bacque in the Times-Dispatch: The Federal Highway Administration estimates that building a 1.5-mile section of the Fairfax County Parkway now will cost $60 million more than the $114.7 million that the state has allocated for the four-lane road. Transportation officials blame the rising cost of energy and raw materials.

    More such cost increases are inevitable, as the declining value of the dollar drives up the cost of asphalt, concrete and steel purchased from foreign markets. Even when raw materials were cheaper, Virginia never could afford to build its way out of traffic congestion. But now the hope that road construction can keep pace with increased Vehicle Miles Traveled gets more detached from reality with each passing day.

    This is just another reminder that Virginia needs to radically re-think the assumptions underpinning its transportation policy.

  • When Bad News Is Good News

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    James A. Bacon

    First the bad news: State transportation revenues are falling short of projections — $387 million less than planned over the next six years, Reta Busher, the Virginia Department of Transportation’s CFO, told the Commonwealth Transportation Board yesterday.

    The federal government has a similar problem. The feds are spending more money than they are taking in. Without an increase in the federal gasoline tax, the $910 in federal funding that accounts for half of all new highway construction dollars in Virginia could fall in half by 2010, warned Quintin C. Kendall, the federal transportation department’s deputy assistant secretary for management and budget.

    Here’s the good news: One of the main reasons for the lag in revenues is the fact that people are driving a little less.

    Question: If people are driving less, shouldn’t that translate into less congestion? And doesn’t that obviate the need to build new roads? Just asking…

    Peter Bacque has the story for the Times-Dispatch.

  • A $1.65 Billion Investment in Knowledge Creation

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    James A. Bacon

    Gov. Timothy M. Kaine has formally unveiled the monster higher-ed bond referendum that I alluded to last week. His plan would raise $1.65 billion to pay for some 75 projects on public colleges, universities and community colleges over the next five to 10 years.

    In the press release announcing the initiative, Kaine emphasized that R&D and workforce development were his priorities. Says the press release:

    “The proposed bond package supports innovative research, providing facilities across Virginia for researchers to develop new, cutting-edge technologies and turn them into commercial assets,” Governor Kaine said. “Our colleges and universities also help us build a workforce prepared to compete in a global economy. These investments will help Virginia’s higher education network keep delivering for our future.”

    The new construction and renovation projects in the package primarily focus on workforce development, enhancing capacity, retaining students, research and providing modern facilities for areas with demonstrated needs, such as education, engineering, nursing, business, and the sciences.

    Kaniacs highlighted the following:

    • $7.5 million of general fund support over the biennium is provided to Jefferson Labs to leverage a $300 million investment by the federal government for an enhanced accelerator facility
    • $1 million in fiscal year 2010 to Hampton University to support a new proton beam cancer therapy facility
    • Over $2 million for the Virginia Coastal Energy Research Consortium in efforts to explore alternative forms of energy
    • $7 million dollars for the creation of the SRI east coast research facility near Harrisonburg

    You can view a list of all the projects here. A quick scan of the projects suggests that there is indeed a heavy emphasis on science and workforce development — that’s not just empty rhetoric. Without commenting on the merits of specific projects, I would support those priorities overall. I don’t see that Virginia needs a lot of new sociology and English majors. We do need scientists, engineers, nurses and even teachers. To prosper in a globally competitive economy, Virginia must invest in knowledge creation and the development of human capital.

    Addendum: It looks like House Speaker William J. Howell is generally supportive of the initiative. As Howell stated in a press release issued yesterday:

    Educational research is crucial to Virginia’s competitiveness, economic development and future job opportunities. Companies want to locate or expand near colleges and universities – which are powerful engines contributing to progress, discovery and prosperity – to take advantage of a well-educated and well-trained workforce. For these and many more reasons, all of us understand and value the return on investment provided by our outstanding community colleges, and our public four-year colleges and universities.

  • Could HB 3202 Unravel in January?

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    James A. Bacon

    Lawmakers have promised to address the festering sore of Abuser Fees, which the state is counting on to generate some $60 million a year for road projects. And the Hampton Roads Transportation Authority has requested legislators to devise a new package of revenue sources to underwrite regional road-building projects. Meanwhile, you can bet that the home builders lobby, reeling from a severe housing downturn, would love to roll back impact fees included in this year’s compromise transportation bill, HB 3202.

    But once lawmakers begin monkeying with the funding plan, reports Amy Gardner with the Washington Post, the whole finely balanced package could unravel. Some Northern Virginia legislators are particularly worried that reopening the plan could jeopardize some $300 million in regional taxes to support Northern Virginia projects.

    Nothing could be better, as far as I’m concerned. The financing portion of HB 3202 violated just about every precept of sound taxation and governance imaginable. The sole objective was to create the illusion of raising more money without anyone actually paying for it. Until Virginia explicitly adopts a transparent, “user pays” system to finance transportation improvements — and that’s just a first step — we’ll never make lasting gains in mobility and access.

  • Requesting a $1 Refund

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    James A. Bacon

    The spat over the temporary-but-possibly-permanent hike in the auto registration fee that Jim noted is generating a lot of chatter. Now the Governor has waded into the fray, saying he’d like to make the temporary fee hike permanent, too.

    Well, that’s just keen. However, as Jon Baliles discovered, Sen. Norment has made an offer to refund that extra dollar to at least one local resident. And, alert citizen that he is, Mr. Baliles takes matters a step further, offering a form letter you can use to ask the good Senator to refund your dollar personally:

    Dear Senator Norment;

    I heard about your kind offer to personally pay my $1 Jamestown fee on WRVA radio and I would kindly like to take you up on your offer.

    Since the fee is no longer being used for the Jamestown celebrations which have since concluded, there is no reason to continue the fee. If you want to continue to collect extra $1 to fund tourism, then I might suggest you repeal the “Jamestown fee,” and raise the fee again on Virginia citizens straight up. Please don’t hide it behind a bygone event and now antiquated fee.

    I know $1 is not much to you but it is symbolic to me, and I sincerely appreciate your efforts to repay me for as long as the current law remains on the books.

    Regards,

    So rather than signing an online petition (though I suppose it can’t hurt), just send Sen. Norment an invoice directly.

    He’ll be happy to accommodate you, I’m sure.

  • Virginia’s Destiny: One Big Parking Lot by 2030?

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    James A. Bacon

    If present trends continue, warns Trip Pollard with the Southern Environmental Law Center in a new study, Virginia’s population will reach nearly 10 million by 2030 — adding the equivalent of the entire population of Northern Virginia. More land will be developed in the next 40 years than in the previous 400, traffic congestion will get worse and degradation of the environment will accelerate.

    The chief culprit is a complex set of land use and transportation policies that drive the scattered, disconnected, low-density pattern of development known loosely as “suburban sprawl.” In his study, “New Directions: Land Use, Transportation and Climate Change in Virginia,” Pollard goes beyond the familiar critique of sprawl and makes the link to carbon dioxide emissions and global warming.

    (The SELC inexplicably links to a study on Alabama’s water agenda, so the full study is not currently available online at the moment.)

    Sprawl, states the SELC press release, “leads to increased land conversion (Virginia lost almost 350,000 acres—about 180 acres a day—to development between 1992 and 1997), more driving (80 billion miles in 2005, up 33% from 1990), and greater fuel consumption (over 5 billion gallons in 2005).

    Transportation is the single largest use of energy in Virginia, accounting for 43% of all energy consumed. It also accounts for over two-fifths of Virginia’s CO2 emissions and is the fastest growing source of CO2—rising 31% between 1990-2004. Sprawl not only exacerbates global warming by increasing driving, it destroys the very resources that would help ameliorate the impacts of a warming planet – forests, which retain carbon, and wetlands, which absorb flood waters.

    But the study is no Jeremiad. Pollard says it’s not too late to change. His recommendations:

    • Revitalize communities and promote more compact neighborhoods and town centers that include affordable housing and transportation alternatives to solo driving
    • Provide incentives for greener building to make new and existing structures healthier, cleaner and more energy efficient
    • Protect and enhance rural and natural areas, and promote agricultural vitality
    • Increase funding for transportation choices, including transit, rail, pedestrian and bicycling paths, and improved local street networks
    • Provide incentives for more efficient, cleaner vehicles and cleaner fuels
    • Make reducing greenhouse gas pollution a priority in all energy and transportation plans and projects.

    Overall, I think Pollard’s study makes an important statement. While I don’t regard Global Warming with the same alarm that others do, there is no denying that the accelerating rate of land conversion will have baleful, long-term consequences on Virginia’s environment. We cannot continue down the same path without inflicting incalculable damage upon our natural heritage.

Now Available

Book cover of 'Dust Mites: A Second American Revolution' by James A. Bacon, featuring astronauts planting a flag with a blue and white emblem on a lunar landscape, with Earth visible in the background.
For sale on Amazon.com

The year: 2075. The American colonies on the Moon are getting restless under Washington’s tyrannical rule….

This second edition of “Dust Mites” has a snazzy new cover, includes helpful lunar maps, and is 5,000 words tighter than the original. The sequel, “Trogs,” is scheduled for publication this summer.

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Bacon’s Rebellion is Virginia’s leading politically non-aligned portal for news, opinions and analysis about state, regional and local public policy. Read more about us here.

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