Notes and Thoughts on the Primary Elections
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84 responses to “Notes and Thoughts on the Primary Elections”
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It was really good to see that the voters seem to be sending messages against bad behavior with Chase and Morrisey both losing the Primary and LaRock losing. Perhaps Virginians are tired of the drama and we can get back to common decency.
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Where do you propose the Republicans go?
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“Lachese Aird trounced Joe Morrisey in the district centered on Petersburg.”
I can’t say I’m sorry that Mr. Morrisey will no longer be an elected official, but wonder to what degree his views on abortion were a factor in his defeat.
Is it even possible for a Democrat in Virginia to say they support any restrictions on abortion? I’m thinking no. Abortion has become like an article of faith for Democrats.
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I am a Democrat and I support restrictions on abortion.
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While I didn’t specify, the context of my comment about Democrats and abortion was Democrats holding or running for office.
Your party preference combined with your position on abortion is certainly atypical.
Additionally, you seem to want all or nothing with respect to restrictions on abortion. Never known anyone with that perspective before.
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You are mistaken. I oppose abortion except in cases in which the life of the mother is threatened or in cases in which doctors certify that the fetus could not survive after being delivered. An example of this latter situation would the recent case in which a woman was forced to carry to term a baby that had no kidneys. https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/02/health/florida-abortion-term-pregnancy/index.html
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“I oppose abortion except in cases in which the life of the mother is threatened or in cases in which doctors certify that the fetus could not survive after being delivered.”
That was the position of most Republicans 20 or so years ago.
What it is today I couldn’t tell you.
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He’s a blowhard, dollars to donuts he’s voted for someone who wants zero restrictions on abortion merely because they have a D behind their name without a single problem doing so.
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I stand corrected.
Most Republicans would agree with the exceptions you site, and I believe the exception for Potter syndrome should be addressed.
Have Democrats proposed legislation to address that specific issue, or are they content with using it as a means of characterizing any restrictions on abortion as being extreme?
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Naw, they just operate like Rep. Spanberger. Make vague statements that you can’t be held accountable for.
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How can someone who claims to be a Democrat want to punish women for a contraceptive failure by forcing them to carry a pregnancy to term?
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The contraceptive failure was not the baby’s fault, so why should the baby be punished by being abolished?
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So one wants to use the developing fetus as an excuse to punish women for having sex with the wrong man?
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Rape? Incest? How about those cases?
I am also a democrat and support restrictions on abortions. In fact, I don’t know a single democrat who supports zero restrictions on abortions.
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As I clarified to Mr. Hall-Sizemore, the context of that comment was the primary election and Democrats running for office.
I am well aware that rank and file Democrats are much less extreme than their leaders with respect to restrictions on abortion.
You may find this interesting.
“The new survey includes a detailed examination of public opinion about abortion at specific time points in a pregnancy. Among the public overall, 56% of adults say that how long a woman has been pregnant should matter in determining whether abortion should be legal; this includes 64% of Republicans and 52% of Democrats.”
Morrissey has always been a character, going all the way back to UVA. He was occasionally sane, and has been replaced with someone arguably, dependably worse.
At some point Republicans have to break through race/party allegiance by Blacks to Dems and ask how has 50-60 years of voting for Dems improved your life?
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Because Blacks realize that the alternative is much worse.
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Really? Please explain how a Republican would make things worse for the Blacks who have reflexively vote D for 60 years.
Tearing down those statues made Richmond safer, how?
Renaming RPS schools improves educational outcomes, how?
Curious minds want to know.
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Interesting definition of “character”. Going back a long way it included beating a neighbor’s head against a brick wall. More recently he put convicted sex offenders in charge of people with intellectual disabilities, state cops came and hauled them off. Then the rape of an underage woman and subsequent abandonment of her and his children. “Dirtbag” we’re fortunate to be shed of would be a better characterization.
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I was being gentle.
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Interesting definition of “gentle”.
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At UVA my wife had a run in with him where perhaps he said he had official permission to be there when he didn’t. This would be pre-1980. He has only gotten more like his true self over the entire time period. Sort of Picture of Dorian Gray-ish…
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Not with a statutory rapist, please.
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Wow. Everybody seems to think I was giving him a pass. I was merely noting he was perhaps slightly more likely to cast a sane vote, without going into all of his drama.
But, please share the same disgust over all of the other politicians, maybe starting with the one who showered with his daughter…
How many at all levels aren’t narcissists and real “public servants?” -
You clarified it, all good as far as I’m concerned. Showering and hair sniffing are egregiously disgusting too. In my book Deeds is as close as we come to non narcissistic public servants. In every interaction with him over more than 20 years he’s been right straight up.
Yan Glezer spent 252 for each of his 907 votes. Most was self-funded. The winner was his consultant.
The loss by Peterson is mind boggling. I’ve known Chap for years. I wouldn’t call him conservative but rather, what Democrats used to be. He is certainly more liberal than I but understands the need for common sense and compromise.
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It seems to have been a surprise to almost everyone.
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Some of the same thing they threw at him were thrown at Deeds, but 1) Deeds has a very different district and 2) as I noted, Deeds has a deep reservoir of personal contacts and long roots. The NoVA population is more transient in nature so less personal attachment to their local electeds. The real question is how did Marsden survive.
As I note in my coming column, Petersen had money from Clean VA and a long history of distance from Dominion, but “Mrs. Clean Virginia” Sonjia Smith still dumped $30K on his opponent, making her his biggest donor.
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I agree with you about Marsden. I would have thought he was much more vulnerable than Petersen. Rather, Marsden won with 63 percent of the vote!
I also am confused about Clean Virginia, Michael Bills, and Sonjia Smith. In an article I read today, there was another instance (I can’t remember which one) in which she contributed to an opponent of a candidate that had received money from Bills or Clean Virginia. (Maybe she has her own pot of money and can spend it like she wants to.)
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Just hedging. And sometimes it pays off.
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Curiouser, and curiouser.
As is evident from SanFrancisco, urban decay can come quickly to a once vibrant area.
Storm clouds are on the horizon for Northern Virginia.
The number of federal and federal related employees now working 100% or almost 100% from home is putting extreme pressure on DC, which generated a lot of taxes from commuters and the offices in which they worked. https://www.rer.org/archive-search/roundtable-weekly/roundtable-weekly—-march-3-2023#600680c6-f354-4275-b8ff-d2b5c4432f61
Of course, the former DC commuters who are now working full time from their home offices in pricey Arlington or Loudoun County can’t seem to understand how vulnerable they are. Even the government will eventually come to understand that if a worker never comes into the office, that worker can be hired at 75% of the cost of a NoVa resident in somewhere like Little Rock.
Meanwhile, soft on crime policies will see crime rise (as in SanFrancisco) which will only catalyze the departure of people from the DC area to “elsewhere”.
Finally, Ron DeSantis has been pretty clear about his intentions for the federal government – ‘While there are a host of things that need to be done to re-constitutionalize government, parceling out federal agencies to other parts of the country could help reduce the negative effects of this accumulation of power,’ said DeSantis.
Amazon has significantly delayed its HQ2 plans.
You know what would be an interesting analysis for the Thomas Jefferson Institute?
The economic impact on Virginia if Northern Virginia was half its current size.
Those who say that could never happen should consider another city that was built on a single industry.
Detroit.
From 1.8+m in 1950 to 900+k in 2000.
They even bulldozed Mitt Romney’s childhood home.
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I just spent a week in San Francisco.
The situation is very bad in some locations, but the rich elite have largely shielded themselves from impact of their politics. Life for them is great. Not so much for the working class.
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It’s all about NIMBY.
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It’s all about NIMBY.
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FBI to…Orlando?
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“Of course, the former DC commuters who are now working full time from their home offices…”
If traffic leaving the city yesterday was any indication, that is not quite the case…
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Look at the stats from DC. $480M drop in taxes over a couple of years.
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“Lee revised the city’s projected revenue, estimated to be just under $10 billion annually in the coming fiscal years, downward by a total of nearly $500 million between fiscal 2024 and 2026.”
A few hundred million over three years on a $10 billion annual income is hardly catastrophic. About 1%. Don’t get me wrong. Commercial real estate is taking a hit but it is no where near 2008 recession type of levels – at least not yet. In my opinion, this is an adjustment. Also, based on my knowledge (admittedly anecdotal) it looks like government is forcing more back-to-office policies than private businesses. I think places like Houston are far more at risk than DC.
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It wasn’t that long ago that the District was proposing taxes on anyone who drove to Downtown.
Had a meeting with FCC staff yesterday. The majority were calling into Teams from cell phones with D.C., Maryland and Virginia numbers. Attorneys for the parties were in D.C., Arizona, North Carolina and Illinois. It worked as well as if we were all in the same room.
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In NoVA, we lost Chap Petersen? We like him here on BR. Not my district so I don’t have a notion why. I did not see this coming.
Ann Wheeler’s defeat as Prince William County Board of Supers chair was a big surprise to me. An outsider named Jefferson won. The big issue was data centers. Looks like PW voters have had enough. Jefferson nearly sounds like a Republican on the bread and butter issues.
https://www.insidenova.com/headlines/deshundra-jefferson-appears-to-oust-prince-william-board-chair-ann-wheeler/article_c10914d2-0fa4-11ee-b2aa-c783cd762909.html
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Did you see the results for the Democrat-turned-Republican who thought he’d win in a landslide because he’s an Ex-Marine(TM) Ken Knarr?
He got a whopping 20% of the vote to Jeanine Lawson’s 80% of the vote, this for PWC BOS supervisor.
Seems that Ken Knarr stood to make millions selling his land to developers so they could build a datacenter on it.
There’s PLENTY of evidence that this guy is no Republican, including his campaign contributions.
Just another opportunist who rightly lost big.
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I support PPWN! Pave Prince William Now. The trees are blocking my view.
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Democrats in elected office appear to have much more extreme views with respect to restrictions on abortion than those they claim to represent.
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Some Democrats in Virginia support abortion up to (and maybe even during) labor.
https://www.npr.org/2019/01/31/690468965/failed-virginia-bill-sparks-national-debate-about-abortion
15 weeks seems like a reasonable position to me.
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I agree.
Abortion restrictions in the U.S. painted as extreme by Democrats are actually the norm for much of the developed world.
“In most European countries, as illustrated in the map and in the country-by-country table below, abortion is generally permitted within a term limit below fetal viability (e.g. 12 weeks in Germany and Italy, or 14 weeks in France and Spain).”
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As I have pointed out before, up to 12, 15, 0r 20 weeks would not make much difference in the number of abortions in Virginia. For example, only 2.2 percent of abortions were performed after 15 weeks of gestation. It is likely that many of those performed after the 15th week were done for medical exigencies, which would be permitted under my proposal. Setting a limit of up to 12, 15, or 20 weeks (Youngkin’s original proposal) only allows those making the proposal to feel good. It does little to diminish abortion. https://www.baconsrebellion.com/the-abortion-hypocrisy/
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If it would not make much of a difference, why create a new regulation targeting women and their reproductive rights?
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It seems a lot of women want complete freedom of their bodies is the issue us guys do not grasp.
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The fetus is not part of her body; if it was, its dna would be identical.
None of us has complete control over our body. We are not allowed to use illegal drugs, and even legal drugs can require permission (prescription) to use.
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Do our elected representatives and those running for office support the public’s views on college admissions? Not the Democrats.
“More Americans Disapprove Than Approve of Colleges Considering Race, Ethnicity in Admissions Decisions”
To confirm how little attention I’m paying, Tim French? Or Timmy, he goes by. Any relation to Warren French? Pretty good 7th District name if so…
Just fired off 1000 words for Jefferson Institute which I may share tomorrow. I have no idea how anybody could think Morrissey would survive given his personal scandal after his child bride turned against him. He was toast from Day One. Please. John Reid would give him radio time and I’d laugh, and laugh….Personally, I’ve always liked Aird. My guess on Deeds is Hudson’s campaign got too negative. Hard to attack that guy and make it stick. He is the epitome of Sabato’s rule about voters liking people they would want as a neighbor.
As to the looney left prosecutors, well, they won again and this time the other side was fully awake. The voters have spoken. I don’t go to that part of the state except under duress anyway. You get what you vote for. Don’t like it, leave.
Overall the D’s followed the lemmings to the cliff edge and in many districts the Republicans picked the saner, more electable choice. Youngkin was getting good news as he supped late (or got his café and baguette) on the Champs Elysée. November got more interesting.
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I agree w ith you that Creigh Deeds is a really nice guy. I would like to have him as a neighbor.
If your comment about D’s following the lemmings to the cliff edge refers to their electing more liberal candidates over centrists, I don’t see where that will hurt them because that occurred in mostly safe Democratic districts.
Looking forward to November, I think Dunnavant will have trouble in Henrico, up against Van Valkenburg. Except for John Edwards in Roanoke, those incumbent Democrat Senators who retired or were beaten in primaries were in fairly safe Democrat seats.
Senate District 28 will be interesting. It is an open seat in the Suffolk area. Two current House members will be running against each other. According to VPAP, the district leans Republican, but if Jenkins is able to turn out Black voters and Brewer rankled too many Republicans in her very competitive primary, Democrats may pick up a seat here.
There are a lot of wild cards with all new districts and many candidates running for the first time in both the Senate and House.
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“If your comment about D’s following the lemmings to the cliff edge refers to their electing more liberal candidates over centrists, I don’t see where that will hurt them because that occurred in mostly safe Democratic districts.”
There’s more to life than having your party do well in the next election. Traditionally, people have viewed crime and criminals as a negative for quality of life. Streets are safer when criminals are punished.
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I don’t think that is what Steve meant.
I agree with you that crime and criminals are negatives for quality of life. So is lack of health care. By the way, problems with crime are not the province of one party.https://www.thirdway.org/report/the-two-decade-red-state-murder-problem
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Interesting that you should post that link. Have we not just established that law enforcement and prosecutors are primarily local and regional, not at the state level?
The numbers look entirely different at the county level.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/604e537e1a8c359de4e89dd4562bc8b42942d17d0313dde27cd3930b41111444.png -
Interesting that you should post that link. Have we not just established that law enforcement and prosecutors are primarily local and regional, not at the state level?
The numbers look entirely different at the county level.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/604e537e1a8c359de4e89dd4562bc8b42942d17d0313dde27cd3930b41111444.png
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Agree – about 90% of the November elections are already decided. There won’t be many competitive races.
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It was an interesting night. Looking forward to the general election, what are the extreme left issues that the dem candidates need to avoid? EG, is there an extreme (too far left) abortion rights position that the dem voters will not support? etc.
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Yes, the position Republicans will accuse them of having, not the one they espouse.
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Let’s ignore personal feelings and characterizations and deal with facts. Are there any dem positions that are too far left?
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You mean like teaching CRT in schools? Or books explaining LBGTQ is grooming? Abortion under any circumstances?
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Apparently Nancy isn’t capable of answering the question. Anyone else want to try?
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I’m just waiting for your “small government” repeals.
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Democrats, and most Republicans, are too far left on abortion as far as I am concerned. However, I am not a single issue voter. I try to look at the total picture of what each candidate is proposing.
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At the national level, Democrats have voted repeatedly, and nearly if not totally unanimously, against bills that would require doctors to employ life-saving techniques to born-alive babies. I don’t know if Virginia legislators have had the chance to vote on a similar bill.
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I dunno. Are the GOP too busy investigating the Bidens, and censuring Schiff, maybe?
Besides, it was signed into law in 2005.
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If you are correct, then why was HR26 introduced in January 2023, passing the House 220-210 with 1 (ONE) Democrat vote and is now waiting Senate action. Republicans are busy, but they can do several things simultaneously.
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Because Congress is known for not wasting time?
Public Law…
https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/PLAW-107publ207/pdf/PLAW-107publ207.pdf
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Just saw a comment Dick made about a woman who discovered that the baby she was carrying had no kidneys. Why would you support a law that would force those parents and doctors to place that child on dialysis…?
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Because he can.
Because the probability of such happening to someone in his sphere is 100s of 1000s to 1. Empathy ends at his doorsill.
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I don’t. My position would allow an abortion in such a case.
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Even if the child could get a kidney transplant at age two?
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Yes, I know. LG’s law does not have anything to do with abortion but with living children. It would not allow end of life care for such a child if it were born.
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Why do you support a law that allows a woman to kill another human being simply because she wants to?
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I don’t.
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Interesting responses. Apparently there are no positions on gun control, immigration, etc. that are too far left for the dems to support.
You mentioned the 29th Senate District Democrat Primary as being close (26 votes) without mentioning that the Republican race in the same District is several times closer (4 votes).
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Wow! I missed that one entirely! Thanks.
I’m glad to see Morrissey unseated, even if his replacement is more “progressive” than he.
I’d be sorry to see Chap Petersen unseated, even if his replacement was less “progressive” than he (which he is not).
I was happy to see Creigh Deeds successfully fight off Sally Hudson. I do not care for her at all.
Despite agreeing with her on certain issues, I was not sorry to see Amanda Chase defeated. I thought this was kind of funny: https://twitter.com/AmandaChaseVA/status/1669163751273029635?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet A clear case of counting her chickens before they were
hatched.
I’m glad to see Morrissey unseated, even if his replacement is more “progressive” than he.
I’d have been sorry to see Chap Petersen unseated, even if his replacement was less “progressive” than he (which he is not).
I was happy to see Creigh Deeds successfully fight off Sally Hudson. I do not care for her at all.
Despite agreeing with her on certain issues, I was not sorry to see Amanda Chase defeated. I thought this was kind of funny: https://twitter.com/AmandaChaseVA/status/1669163751273029635?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet A clear case of counting her chickens before they were
hatched.
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