More Hot Air on Global Warming

Following revelations last week that Patrick Michaels has taken $100,000 from power companies to debunk prevailing opinions regarding global warming, climatology has suddenly become a hot topic in Virginia. Now the editorial pundits are taking after the University of Virginia professor, who doubles as Virginia’s state climatologist.

“Students at Thomas Jefferson’s school in Charlottesville set high standards of honorable behavior. Too bad their code does not apply to faculty. Perhaps then Patrick Michaels, a professor of environmental sciences, would not have shamefully sold his academic credibility, embarrassing all Virginians in the process,” the Roanoke Times high-mindedly declared Monday, in effect calling Michaels either a liar or cheater. “Michaels’ shameful actions disqualify him from speaking for Virginia. Let him spread his industry-funded message without the title of state climatologist.”

The Free Lance-Star piled on yesterday: “There are still climate-change deniers or near-deniers around, as Virginians were reminded upon learning last week that Pat Michaels, a U.Va. professor who functions as the state climatologist and libertarian-think-tank beau ideal, was taking money from utilities to pick apart global-warming studies.” Added the editorial writer: “The rightist line on the issue–i.e., global warming is a myth created by evil one-worlders and embraced by ninnies–has been wavering for a while.”

Makes me wonder… have any of these people ever bothered to read Michaels’ work? I doubt it. It’s a lot easier to dismiss him as a paid goon of the Fossil Fuel Industry than to grapple with his arguments.

As I recall from what I’ve read, Michaels does not deny that global warming is occurring, although he debates the extent to which it is taking place. He also places that warming in the context of the fact that temperatures now are about the same as they were in the Medieval Warm Period, some of the warmest centuries in the previous 8,000 years. That warm period, presumably not caused by industrial carbon dioxide emissions, was followed by what historians labeled the Little Ice Age, which led most notoriously to the extinction of the Norse settlements in Greenland. In turn, the Little Ice Age yielded to the current warming trend, which began around 1800.

Michaels also concedes that human activity contributes to global warming. What he disputes is the extent to which human activity is responsible, in particular the degree to which rising temperatures are directly related to the level of CO2 greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. He notes, for instance, that CO2 emissions were increasingly steadily between 1940 and 1970, when average temperatures were falling — prompting worries at the time of an impending ice age. (He also offers a lot of arguments too technical to go into here.)

Finally, as I recall, Michaels questions the usefulness of the Kyoto Treaty in addressing global warming. Fulfilling the objectives of that treaty, at the cost of hundreds of billions of dollars to the United States economy, would impact global temperatures by a tiny fraction of one degree decades out. Would it not be more economically rational, he asks, to adapt to climate change rather than try to halt it?

I don’t know the answers. I don’t know if Michaels is right or wrong. But I do know one thing: When a consensus in the elite media, not necessary the scientific community, is driving climate research and policy, it’s a good thing to have skeptical voices challenging the received wisdom — regardless of where their funding comes from. Sometimes the received wisdom is right. Sometimes it’s not.


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19 responses to “More Hot Air on Global Warming”

  1. Waldo Jaquith Avatar
    Waldo Jaquith

    There’s rather a strong difference between Michaels’ published papers and the positions that he takes in pop culture. Somehow he can write a reasonable paper (albeit one with a good many non sequiturs and straw men) and turn around and say something as stupid as (and I’m paraphrasing here) “we shouldn’t place any restrictions on burning fossil fuels because it could be bad for the economy.” In the Washington Times (10/16/03) he described global warming as “a likely benefit” citing the popular desire “to move South as soon they can afford it.”

    His assertions simply aren’t backed up by his research. Time and time again he manages to take something very complicated and boils it down to something that is simple, straightforward, and utterly wrong.

  2. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    How much are we willing to save by freezing in the dark?

  3. Jim Bacon Avatar
    Jim Bacon

    Waldo, I wouldn’t be surprised to see that Michaels has over-simplified in writing for a popular audience — as, I suspect, Al Gore did in his documentary meant for a popular audience. Sadly, there is a tendency for advocates of both side of an issue (pick an issue, any issue) to be dogmatic and strident.

    As for global warming having benefits — as opposed to being an unmitigated disaster across the board — I don’t see what’s so outrageous about Michaels making that point. The Russians wouldn’t mind taking the edge off their long, cold winter. Either would Canadian wheat farmers. Would global climate change represent a net loss to the global community? Probably so. But there are nuances that aren’t commonly acknowledged.

  4. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    There is consensus among the scientific community that the world is getting warmer and that CO2 is to blame.

    Is there unanimous agreement? No, and there never should be as science is a method of debate and deliberation on facts.

    Here’s my beef with the folks who want to stick their heads in the sand about CO2. If there was an 85% certainty that a foreign country was going to attack us, would we take action? I would hope so. I there is an 85% chance that increased levels of CO2 are going to hurt our communities, why wouldn’t we take action?

    This is a strange topic for me as the folks who don’t want to acknowledge facts then go fact-hunting to back up their opinions WHICH in the most part are already made up BEFORE they review the information.

    I know, I know. politics.

  5. Will Vehrs Avatar
    Will Vehrs

    I’m sure the global warming Jeremiahs would never take a dime from anyone whose organization profited from spreading warnings about immending doom.

    Al Gore’s prescription for global warming, based on his movie, appears to be to write your congressman and recycle.

    I’m not qualified to judge Professor Michaels, but he sure doesn’t seem to be a nutjob or to be excessively “out of the mainstream.” Do those opposing his views get as much scrutiny of their views?

    Let’s face it: nobody wants global warming and everybody wants somebody else to do something (or appear to be doing something). When someone proposes restrictions on fossil fuel use by the public during an election year. then I’ll know we’re serious and not just posturing.

  6. Will Vehrs Avatar
    Will Vehrs

    Immending doom? A new word for this impending catastrophe.

    The rust is showing.

  7. Virginia Centrist Avatar
    Virginia Centrist

    “When a consensus in the elite media, not necessary the scientific community, is driving climate research and policy”

    How do you define the word “concensus”? If 99 out of 100 scientists believe something, is that a concensus? And if, among that 1% that disagree, most are paid by oil companies, electric companies, or someone else, where does that lead us?

    I’m skeptical about global warming myself – it reminds me of a fad. But if scientists are wrong, they’re almost ALL wrong. Not elitist media types, not elitist college professors – nearly every scientist in teh entire world (minus a few dissenters, only about a half of which are not on the dole of the energy industry) who studies this is wrong. Maybe that’s the case. Prevailing science has been wrong before. But to deny that scientists believe what they believe is beyond ignorance. It’s putting your hands over your heads and saying “na-na-na-na-na I can’t hear you na na na na na!”

  8. Toomanytaxes Avatar
    Toomanytaxes

    I’m not sure what I believe about global warming and its causes. I’m old enough to remember a similar hysteria in the 1970s about global cooling and I’m always skeptical of those seeking government (make that taxpayer) funding. But this does not make their argument necessarily wrong. Moreover, any reduction of pollutants that can be done without causing a major dislocation to the macro economy is probably worth study.

    I had to note the irony this week when I read that one of the largest sources of pollution in California is China. Of course, the Al Gore team that negotiated the Kyoto Treaty exempted China from most requirements.

    Just as with most subjects, we need more data and analysis and not just from those who have a financial stake in outcome (both the CO2 producers and the tax dollar consumers). I would hope there are enough people without an agenda who would be able to study and debate the issue and, of course, find sensible and efficient ways to reduce emissions generally.

    Like it or not, we still need to heat and cool our homes and workplaces and go to and from many locations.

  9. Jim Bacon Avatar
    Jim Bacon

    TMT, The Kyoto Treaty is the worst aspect of the global warming debate. By exempting rapidly industrialized Third World nations like China and India, adoption of the treaty would serve only to accelerate the migration of energy-intensive industries to those countries — where they would still emit greenhouse gases into the air. Also, that treaty (as far as I understand it) does nothing to address the horrendous deforestation that’s occurring in rain forests around the world, thus crippling the earth’s ability to reabsorb CO2.

    I’m all in favor of energy conservation and alternate fuels as part of building a sustainable economy, but I don’t think we need to wreck our economy on our journey to a sustainable society.

  10. Jim Bacon Avatar
    Jim Bacon

    Virginia Centrist, what basis do you have for saying that there is a “consensus” of 99 percent of all climatologists — other than the fact that Al Gore & Company have repeated the fact endlessly. Consensus about what?

    That the earth, is in fact, warming?

    That carbon dioxide emissions are driving that warming?

    That the climate models predicting further warming are useful predictors of the future? That the climate models have incorporated all significant meteorological variables?

    That the effects of global warming will be overwhelmingly negative on the environment and on human populations.

    That the Kyoto Treaty is a valid strategy for attacking the global warming challenge?

    I think you’ll find that there are different levels of agreement and disagreement on all of these questions. To say that there is a consensus on “global warming” is a non-sequitor. It’s like saying there’s a consensus on “God.”

  11. Ray Hyde Avatar

    Suppose we replaced all the automobiles with enough horses to do the same work. Suppose we replaced all the electric blankets with dogs and cats. Suppose we replaced all the microwaves with hibachis.

    Would we be better off? Ever visit the third world?

    Would we emit less CO2? Who knows?
    What are we going to do, put a tax on breathing? Haven’t the Chinese already done that with their one child policy?

    Either this is nothing, or it is the end of civilization as we know it. Either way, it won’t be the first time.

  12. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Somebody wrote a great sci fi novel (wish I could remember the title) about a successful effort to end global warming, with the result a massive ice age. Seems the greenhouse gases are the only thing keeping us out of the deep freeze. I suspect there is more than a grain of truth in that.

    Michaels is no more suspect, nor any less, than the legions of global warming Chicken Little’s who are supported in their efforts by true believers or those who would gain.

  13. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Anyone that claims that “when average temperatures were falling — prompting worries at the time of an impending ice age.” is just misleading people. This claim has been kicked around a lot to try and make it look like climatologists have been confidently making predictions that turned out to be wrong: something that displays a real lack of any grasp of the field or its history (but does seem on the level of a good soundbite a la Bill O’Reily)

    It’s worth reading about how this myth got started, and then asking why someone credible would flash it in front of laypeople and for what purpose:
    http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/01/the-global-cooling-myth/

    Likewise, the claims about the Medevil Hot Period are also not what they appear to be:
    http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/07/medieval-warmth-and-english-wine/
    Key point being: “Current theories of climate change do not rely on whether today’s temperatures are ‘unprecedented’. Instead they examine the physical causes of climate change and match up what we know about their physical effects and time history and see which of the multiple drivers or combination can best explain the observations.”

    I agree that a healthy skepticism and an adversarial system befits good scientific inquiry. But unfortunately, that desire often seems very one-sided. While scientists generally welcome real debates, what we often get instead is very shallow sloganeering. You see the same thing in evolution debates, where it becomes very quickly obvious that most popularizers of fads like ID or creationism have never even bothered to learn what evolution is or what it claims. You can’t have an honest debate when one side won’t even listen to the mainstream consensus: when skepticism is uninformed or based on false premises and a bad faith approach to the subject, then it’s NOT productive, but merely disruptive.

  14. Ray Hyde Avatar

    Michael Crichton’s “State of Fear” expressses skepticism that the global warming phenomenon is real. In it a supposedly philanthropical NGO is promoting the theory in order to bolster its own ends. The bookis filled with footnotes that purport to provide insight on why global warming may not be happening.

    If all the footnotes are real and not part of the novel, then at least some scientists are not yet convinced. Even if we are convinced, we don’t yet know if the cure will be worse than the disease, or if it willl work.

  15. Jim Bacon Avatar
    Jim Bacon

    Anonymous 8:41, People did, in fact, worry about an impending ice age back in the 1970s. I remember distinctly reading about it. Maybe serious climatologists were more dubious about that theory, as suggested in the article you cite, but a number of non-scientific opinion leaders took the idea very seriously.

    As for the Medieval Warm Period (not “hot” period), the existence of vineyards “warmer than today” in England may have been a myth, as cited by your source. Whether that period was “warmer than today” is not the point. The point is that the past 2,000 years have show wide swings in average temperature. The fact of a warm period in the Middle Ages is undeniable — unless you’d like to dispute the historic fact of Vikings making a living in Greenland for several hundre years supported by a European-style agrarian system. The fact of the “Little Ice Age” is likewise undeniable. The fact that temperatures have been increasing for some 200 years is also undeniable. The paid prevaricators of the fossil fuels industry are not making up these facts.

    I will admit that some members of the Right Wing are so determined to mock the idea of global warming — Rush Limbaugh’s diatribes come to mind — that they have lost all objectivity. But the same can be said of true believers on the other side of the ideological divide.

  16. Toomanytaxes Avatar
    Toomanytaxes

    Here’s an article from Time Magazine on Global Cooling. I offer this only to put today’s press coverage into context.

    Another Ice Age?

    Monday, Jun 24, 1974

    In Africa, drought continues for the sixth consecutive year, adding terribly to the toll of famine victims. During 1972 record rains in parts of the U.S., Pakistan and Japan caused some of the worst flooding in centuries. In Canada’s wheat belt, a particularly chilly and rainy spring has delayed planting and may well bring a disappointingly small harvest. Rainy Britain, on the other hand, has suffered from uncharacteristic dry spells the past few springs. A series of unusually cold winters has gripped the American Far West, while New England and northern Europe have recently experienced the mildest winters within anyone’s recollection.

    As they review the bizarre and unpredictable weather pattern of the past several years, a growing number of scientists are beginning to suspect that many seemingly contradictory meteorological fluctuations are actually part of a global climatic upheaval. However widely the weather varies from place to place and time to time, when meteorologists take an average of temperatures around the globe they find that the atmosphere has been growing gradually cooler for the past three decades. The trend shows no indication of reversing. Climatological Cassandras are becoming increasingly apprehensive, for the weather aberrations they are studying may be the harbinger of another ice age.

    Telltale signs are everywhere —from the unexpected persistence and thickness of pack ice in the waters around Iceland to the southward migration of a warmth-loving creature like the armadillo from the Midwest.Since the 1940s the mean global temperature has dropped about 2.7° F. Although that figure is at best an estimate, it is supported by other convincing data. When Climatologist George J. Kukla of Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory and his wife Helena analyzed satellite weather data for the Northern Hemisphere, they found that the area of the ice and snow cover had suddenly increased by 12% in 1971 and the increase has persisted ever since. Areas of Baffin Island in the Canadian Arctic, for example, were once totally free of any snow in summer; now they are covered year round.

    Scientists have found other indications of global cooling. For one thing there has been a noticeable expansion of the great belt of dry, high-altitude polar winds —the so-called circumpolar vortex—that sweep from west to east around the top and bottom of the world. Indeed it is the widening of this cap of cold air that is the immediate cause of Africa’s drought. By blocking moisture-bearing equatorial winds and preventing them from bringing rainfall to the parched sub-Sahara region, as well as other drought-ridden areas stretching all the way from Central America to the Middle East and India, the polar winds have in effect caused the Sahara and other deserts to reach farther to the south. Paradoxically, the same vortex has created quite different weather quirks in the U.S. and other temperate zones. As the winds swirl around the globe, their southerly portions undulate like the bottom of a skirt. Cold air is pulled down across the Western U.S. and warm air is swept up to the Northeast. The collision of air masses of widely differing temperatures and humidity can create violent storms—the Midwest’s recent rash of disastrous tornadoes, for example.

    Sunspot Cycle. The changing weather is apparently connected with differences in the amount of energy that the earth’s surface receives from the sun. Changes in the earth’s tilt and distance from the sun could, for instance, significantly increase or decrease the amount of solar radiation falling on either hemisphere—thereby altering the earth’s climate. Some observers have tried to connect the eleven-year sunspot cycle with climate patterns, but have so far been unable to provide a satisfactory explanation of how the cycle might be involved.

    Man, too, may be somewhat responsible for the cooling trend. The University of Wisconsin’s Reid A. Bryson and other climatologists suggest that dust and other particles released into the atmosphere as a result of farming and fuel burning may be blocking more and more sunlight from reaching and heating the surface of the earth.

    Climatic Balance. Some scientists like Donald Oilman, chief of the National Weather Service’s long-range-prediction group, think that the cooling trend may be only temporary. But all agree that vastly more information is needed about the major influences on the earth’s climate. Indeed, it is to gain such knowledge that 38 ships and 13 aircraft, carrying scientists from almost 70 nations, are now assembling in the Atlantic and elsewhere for a massive 100-day study of the effects of the tropical seas and atmosphere on worldwide weather. The study itself is only part of an international scientific effort known acronymically as GARP (for Global Atmospheric Research Program).

    Whatever the cause of the cooling trend, its effects could be extremely serious, if not catastrophic. Scientists figure that only a 1% decrease in the amount of sunlight hitting the earth’s surface could tip the climatic balance, and cool the planet enough to send it sliding down the road to another ice age within only a few hundred years.

    The earth’s current climate is something of an anomaly; in the past 700,000 years, there have been at least seven major episodes of glaciers spreading over much of the planet. Temperatures have been as high as they are now only about 5% of the time. But there is a peril more immediate than the prospect of another ice age. Even if temperature and rainfall patterns change only slightly in the near future in one or more of the three major grain-exporting countries—the U.S., Canada and Australia —global food stores would be sharply reduced. University of Toronto Climatologist Kenneth Hare, a former president of the Royal Meteorological Society, believes that the continuing drought and the recent failure of the Russian harvest gave the world a grim premonition of what might happen. Warns Hare: “I don’t believe that the world’s present population is sustainable if there are more than three years like 1972 in a row.”

  17. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    “People did, in fact, worry about an impending ice age back in the 1970s. I remember distinctly reading about it. Maybe serious climatologists were more dubious about that theory, as suggested in the article you cite, but a number of non-scientific opinion leaders took the idea very seriously.”

    Which is, er, completely irrelevant, don’t you agree? The point of the meme is to make it look like climatology is unreliable and constantly making hysterical and contradictory predictions. But that is, in fact, a highly misleading account of things, as the article notes. Furthermore, it’s comparing apples to oranges. Things like glacial cycles occur over the order of tens of thousands years. The worry about global warming is a worry about what could happen in just a hundred years.

    Likewise the “warm period” nonsense. Again, it’s a red herring. Yes, temperatures have varied. But the point is what is or isn’t part of the normal variance and why, and that anyone making a simple claim about it “being warmer and thus global warming is unimportant” demonstrate an almost disdain for the complexity of climate: why certain changes are tolerable and others can have intolerable results.

    “The paid prevaricators of the fossil fuels industry are not making up these facts.”

    But they are using them to completely mislead people into drawin false conclusions based on just those facts without any appreciation of the picture as a whole. Again, creationism is a good parallel. People like Crichton do not really bother to gain a mastery of the field. As a result, they drw broad conclusions based on anecdotes and their own very shallow grasp of whats going on. The result is a bunch of really misleading boilerplate.

  18. John Huennekens Avatar
    John Huennekens

    I shared some office space with Pat 25 years ago and remember he had a bit of a contrarian viewpoint back then. So what’s the problem? The quality of the discussion is improved by making sure that both sides of the coin are examined.
    The fact that Pat Michael’s conclusions are not shared by 70-80-do-I-hear-90 percent of his colleagues does not compromise his status as state climatologists.
    The position is concerned more with collection and dissemination of data – so that everyone can argue from the same set of statistics.
    Nor do I see a problem with accepting money from industry for research. Industry supports a lot of research in a lot of fields.
    I just hope Pat distributed some of it toward the care and feeding of his grad students.

  19. Jim Bacon Avatar
    Jim Bacon

    Anonymous 8:19 said: “The point of the meme is to make it look like climatology is unreliable and constantly making hysterical and contradictory predictions.”

    No, that was not the point of my bringing up the Medieval Warm Period. The point was to show that the temperatures that we are experiencing now are not unprecedented in human history. We experienced comparable temperatures back before the industrialized emission of greenhouse gases occurred, before continental-scale deforestation. Clearly, human-caused CO2 emissions are not the only factor at work in driving climate change.

    I would not characterize climatology as “unreliable,” but I would characterize it as a work in progress. Scientists are identifying new variables all the time. Our meteorological models are still incomplete. Look, just last year, everyone was saying with great confidence that the world had entered a new cycle of highly devastating hurricanes, and that 2006 would be as bad as 2005, maybe worse. Well, it ain’t happened. Not yet. (The hurricanes will probably kick in when I go vacation in the Outer Banks in two weeks!)

    Interestingly, Patrick Michaels was one of the few voices who didn’t join the global-warming-is-generating-more-hurricanes chorus. He argued last year (as I recall) that the causal factor behind the surge in hurricanes was not warmer sea water temperatures but a shift in high-altitude wind patterns that was more hospitable to hurricane formation. And what was the explanation for the paucity of hurricanes that I heard most recently in the evening news? Different wind patterns than last year were disrupting hurricane formation!

    I’m sorry, but when Michaels gets that right and many of the global-warming enthusiasts get it wrong, I figure that Michaels knows knows his subject as well as they do. He may be ultimately wrong about global warming, but I’m not going to dismiss him as a mouthpiece of the fossil fuel industry either.

    What raises my hackles is when global warming zealots insist that the case is closed and there is no debate. That makes them sound like the ones not open to new evidence.

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