Just as he’s putting the finishing touches on his ‘the-sky-is-falling’ campaign– based largely on opposition to last year’s tax increase–you remember, that one that was bi-partisan in nature and saved Virginia’s coveted Triple AAA bond rating–the Virginia Employment Commission up and announces Friday that the Commonwealth gained 50,300 jobs during the last year, shattering the previous 12-month record growth by 26,800. Wish as hard as he might that Virginia suffers under commonsense, centrist government, Kilgore must face the fact that it does not. What’s a guy to do? A thought: he’d be a lock for the role of ‘Chicken Little,’ opening at Republican playhouses everywhere come November. I doubt if he’d even have to audition.
Kilgore can’t catch a break
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Chicken Little…rt.
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Barnie, why aren’t these job figures bad news–just like the news of ballooning revenue feeding the surplus? I mean, these jobs could have been created by volatile sources. They could dry up any minute! And the tax revenues produced by these jobs won’t even dent the “bills in the drawer” and the “unmet needs.” What about the children?
What surplus? What new jobs? It’s somebody besides Kilgore who’s telling us the sky is falling in the midst of good news.
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I have to echo Will’s confusion about this post. Back in 2002, it was the Warner administration and its state senate allies who said “the sky is falling,” while the cooler heads opposing tax increases said Virginia would rebound strongly from the recession, outpacing the national rate of economic growth as it always had. It was the Warner administration that predicted anemic rates of state revenue growth, while the foes of tax increases pointed out that, even while the debate was raging in the General Assembly, revenues were coming in faster than forecast. It was the Warner administration that postulated the existence of a “structural budget deficit” throughout the rest of the decade, while the foes of tax increases argued that the budget gap could be met through a combination of economic growth and Wilder Commission-like reforms to state government.
Given the fact that Kilgore argued that tax hikes were unnecessary, he would seem to belong in the opposite camp from the sky-is-falling crowd. Barnie, could you please illuminate the reasons why you would characterize Kilgore as a “chicken little”? In all sincerity, I’m baffled.
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In January, 2004, Kilgore predicted that the Warner-Kaine budget reform plan would kill nearly 28,000 jobs in Virginia (Associated Press, 01/08/04). In March, 2004, Kilgore predicted that the same budget reform would “harm Virginia’s economic recovery.” If 50,000 new jobs is the result, kill me deader, harm me harder.
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OK, Barnie, I’ll concede that Kilgore made bad predictions back in March of 2004 (isn’t that the opposition’s job?). I hope you’ll concede that while Kilgore might have been infected with “Chicken Little” syndrome back then, he’s not the one infected now. Heck, you’d be more accurate to diagnose him with “Rosey Scenario” syndrome.
BTW, none of this good economic performance in Virginia can be attributed to President Bush, can it? Nobody predicted the sky would fall if Federal taxes were cut, did they?
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“Nobody predicted the sky would fall if Federal taxes were cut, did they?”
Well, no one running for Governor of Virginia that we know of, no.
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I’ll give Bush this: I think he’s correct in saying that the two biggest threats to our economy right now are energy prices and the cost of health care. I heard a thing on NPR (National Pink Radio) the other day saying that Americans are spending $135 million per day more for gas than just 6 months ago–$135 million per day not being spent on something else. On Kilgore–I honestly think he’s a decent fellow, but they do seem to be having trouble distinguishing motion from direction. Kaine can run on Warner. Potts can run on Kaine and Kilgore. What is Jerry running on? More spending, too? Cuts? What?
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I once heard a Democratic friend say “The economy didn’t do well because of Bill Clinton, it did well in spite of Bill Clinton.”
I think the same principle applies here.
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Barnie your sound bites and mantras do not convince me. Look at facts. You claim the tax increase was needed among other things to “…saved Virginia’s coveted Triple AAA bond rating”. Baloney. There was an interesting op-ed in the Winchester Star regarding the bond rating. It was titled, “The Bond Rating, A Matter of Money — or Pride?” The link is here (http://www.winchesterstar.com/TheWinchesterStar/040420/Opinion_EDIt1.asp)
It demonstrates that the lost of a triple AAA rating would hardly hurt the State at all.
As for the rest of the tax increase? Give me a break. You sound like Potts when he said we needed to raise taxes to prevent a financial meltdown.
The House Republicans, who disagreed, were proven right and the State was nowhere near as crippled as you would have us believe. Now the tax-n-spend left say it wasn’t a tax increase it was an “investment”.
Just a bunch of sound bites and mantras, sound bites and mantras, sound bites and mantras…
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Dadgumit Barnie! What’re yu thankin? Momma awus sed not ta be tryin ta teach thuh hawg ta sang.
It’ll jus git yu frustrated and will jus annoy thuh dang hawg! -
Got to love any ‘analysis’ where the economy’s either Up® or Down®. Next thing you know, some Kaine-apologist will pronounce the economy is On… or Off! Just hope nobody’s taking it seriously or using it for investment advice.
Two-state thinking is especially ill suited for economics and finance, where the amount of increase or decrease will effect a profit or loss.
Tax is an economic ‘friction’; it’s effect on the economy and jobs is always negative to some degree. Of course tax isn’t the only factor that affects the economy; other positive or negative effects can mask a taxes’ harmful influence.
Mr. Kilgore’s claim of an expected 28,000 new-job loss may well be correct. This would be especially true if Kilgore relied on the same economic forecast –little growth– used by Gov. Warner as justification for the tax increase. The 50,000 job gain is the net result of an economy actually headed toward gaining 78,000, reduced by the added tax.
That Warner’s tax deters creation of jobs is fact. The only argument can be over the numbers of potential new jobs lost.
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