Bacon's Rebellion

Is Virginia Becoming More Culturally Conservative?

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by

James A. Bacon
in

Fellow bloggers, help me out. The rash of “social” legislation during the current General Assembly session has created a strong impression on me. Is Virginia getting more culturally conservative?

Virginia is part of the Bible Belt, of course, and I know the history of the blue laws and gambling restrictions and all that. But within the past 30 years or so, the political center of gravity seemed to shift decisively towards a more libertarian, live-and-let-live philosophy. Virginia never embraced a liberal, nanny-state agenda (except in the Washington, D.C., suburbs, which are the southern-most cultural extension of the Northeastern U.S.) During the Allen and Gilmore administrations, cultural conservatism expressed itself in more broad-based concerns such as the war on crime and reforming welfare. Now, it seems, the focus has shifted to highly symbolic culture-war issues — prayer in schools, sex on campus, sartorial regulations, etc.

One possible explanation: The electorate is getting more conservative, and the changing preoccupations of legislators reflect that shift. Another possible explanation: Having won the big legislative battles of the 1990s (Virginia is now tough on criminals and shows tough-love to welfare moms), culturally conservative legislators are retreating to the more hard-core issues because that’s all they have.

I don’t know the answer. I’m just inviting your observations.

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  1. Barnie Day Avatar
    Barnie Day

    Jim, I don’t think your argument holds in the Senate. For it to be valid, I think it must hold in both. So why so much difference in the House? I think one explanation is that so much experience and institutional memory has left the House since the last redistricting. People like Cranwell, DeBoer, Dickenson, Diamonstein, Jackson, Grayson, Woodrum, Moss, Blomom, Tayloe Murphy, Panny Rhodes and on and on–these folks collectively, Democrat and Republican, took a couple of hundred years of experience with them–experience in knowing the difference between little legislation and big legislation. It just takes a long time to replace that. Some of it is irreplaceable. For lack of a comparative, a little idea sometimes seems big. Practically the entire House would have to quit to equal the cumulative time just these few I’ve mentioned spent there. I think another argument one could make against your observation, in addition to it not applying in the Senate, is this: moderate Democrats have won the last four special elections for open seats.

  2. Mattaponi Avatar
    Mattaponi

    Jim’s comments explain some of the phenomenon and I agree it is more an attribute of the Delegates than in the Senate. Part of the explanation lies not with what is really happening in the electorate, but what delegates think will work for them in the next election. A splashy piece of legislation, regardless of its fate, makes a statement that these guys think will be rewarded at the polls and in free publicity. Their understanding of the core elements of a truly conservative political philosophy is often very thin. They’ve wrapped themselves up in the labels of what they think works with the populace becasue they see it as a vector for political success. But in their hearts, they just don’t get the idea that keeping the government in a small box applies acorss the board. That’s why you see so much of this wierd intrusional legislation that would have Barry Goldwater going right through the overhead. It’s very shallow and very disheartening unless you decide to revel in the unintended humor of it all.

  3. Will Vehrs Avatar
    Will Vehrs

    Gerrymandering.

    Delegate districts have been herded around like-minded individuals, giving cultural conservatives more sway with the kind of Delegate elected and the policies that Delegate supports.

    Larger Senate Districts reflect slightly more diversity. It’s easier to topple a Delegate in a primary challenge than a Senator. Many Delegates must constantly monitor their right flank.

    Barnie, the institutional memory leaving that you spoke of knew big from little, but alienated cultural conservatives by their very dismissal of pro-life and evangelic Christian type concerns. That’s why they were forced out by redistricting. When we criticize the current leadership of the House for not “reigning in” legislation we consider excessive, we’re missing the point. It’s hard to “reign in” what is close to a majority.

  4. Scott Avatar
    Scott

    Virginia is becoming older and more suburban- of course its citizens are going to become more culturally conservative.

    Urbanites and rural types who love liberty should do all they can to protect it from zealous, suburbanite, nanny-staters.

  5. Barnie Day Avatar
    Barnie Day

    Will, I apply your theory to 4 straight Democratic seat gains in the House and I don’t get a fit.

  6. Jim Bacon Avatar
    Jim Bacon

    Barnie: Interesting observation. If I might paraphrase/elaborate upon this theme, the loss of senior legislators in recent years means that the House is populated by relative novices. Overwhelmed, perhaps, by the complexity and intractability of challenges posed by the big issues of the day — budget, transportation, education, Medicaid, etc. — the novices focus on small-bore items that they can grapple with. Thus are born bills to regulate access to pornography over the Internet in public libraries. That sounds like a reasonable proposition, although I suspect there’s more to it than that.

    Mattaponi, You suggest that there’s an element of political opportunism involved. Legislators are, in effect, pandering to the public with legislation on highly visible but largely symbolic issues. I think most of us would agree that politicians are shameless panderers. But doesn’t that beg the question? Whose prejudices are they pandering to? If legislators are pushing more culturally conservative issues than in the past, by your logic, that’s evidence that the public’s appetite for it must be growing, in other words, that the electorate itself is growing more conservative….

    Unless the answer is found in Will’s culprit: Gerrymandering…. Once the Republicans took control of the redistricting process, they started creating more safe districts for GOP legislators. Safe districts reduce the need for legislators to seek consensus. Representatives have more latitude to pander to their core constituents.

    Any other angles out there?

  7. Paul Avatar
    Paul

    I think it’s a reallignment of the parties.

    With very few exceptions, the Democratic Party now exclusively belongs to the center to left. The Republican Party belongs to the center to the right. Back in the day, the parties were a diverse coalition of interests on all parts of the spectrum. Sometimes class divided them, and sometimes race.

    Now you have ideological stratification. So Republicans don’t need to appeal to anyone left of John McCain. Why shouldn’t they push right-wing social issues? A slim majority of their party wants it.

  8. Will Vehrs Avatar
    Will Vehrs

    Barnie, let’s review the last four special elections. I don’t have all of them at hand, but if you look at Thelma Drake’s old District, the last special election, it was tantalizingly close–no big mandate for centrism in a low turnout contest. The Democratic winner essentially won by muting any tinge of liberalism.

    A win is a win, but if you don’t run against cultural conservatism, I don’t see how anyone can attribute the win to a diminuation of cultural conservatism’s impact.

    Have you checked the voting records of the new Delegates?

  9. Barnie Day Avatar
    Barnie Day

    Maybe ‘culturally’ conservative, but not otherwise. They’re certainly not conservative from a spending perspective. Top to bottom, they’re racking up record spending, and supporting it with record debt. They’re certainly not conservative from a ‘small government’ perspective. They may talk about small government, about getting government off our backs, and so on, but they want the government looking over our shoulders to see what we’re reading in our libraries. They want the government peeping into our bedroom windows. They talk about pushing government down to the local level, yet insist on centralizing at the state level nearly every aspect of what we used to think were our ‘local’ schools. They’re injecting the government into everything this side of our morning bowl of cornflakes. I suppose that will be next. Paul is right, it is a right-wing fringe element driving most of this stuff. You can bet the ‘thinkers’ in the Republican Party are alarmed about 4 straight Democratic pick-ups in the House.

  10. Paul Avatar
    Paul

    My point though is that back in the day, when parties were true coalitions of the left and right, they couldn’t push radical social policy because they were beholden to all kinds of interests across the ideological spectrum.

    Once you have ideological purity in both parties, they can look more narrowly at their supporters and push ideologically driven policy.

    The other thing we’re leaving out is the grassroots infrastructure that the religious right has built over the last 3 decades, starting with the fight against ERA and Roe v. Wade and culminating in Pat Robertson’s run for President. They’re a powerful voice in the GOP because their GOTV is so powerful. As long as Dick Black throws red meat, he can rely upon his friends at a nearby college outside of his district to get the vote out for him.

    The same goes with the Democratic party. If they stay ideologically pure on issues like abortion and gay rights, local candidates can get money and support from around the state.

  11. Barnie Day Avatar
    Barnie Day

    Seems this discussion is on lots of minds today. Check the editorials in the Pilot, the Daily Press and Roanoke Times–all three examine this same question. I don’t know how to do these clever links, or I would do them here. The Daily Press says, “It is the Senate that better reflects Virginia’s broader political attitudes.” (I agree) They fault the last redistricting. (I agree) The headlines say it all for the other two. Pilot: “Animal House Rules in the State House.” Roanoke: “Fortunately Virginia also has a Senate.” The Roanoke folks do make a terrific point on a matter Will and I have been back and forth on this morning. “Senate Republicans have gained two seats while House Republicans have lost four. Therein may lie a lesson.”

  12. E M Risse Avatar
    E M Risse

    To All:

    Interesting comments all. I suspect there is truth in all of them but the root cause is citizens failure to understand how to be informed members of an increasingling complex and time consuming society.

    This opens the door for slogans, pandering and legislation that avoids dealing with the need for Fundamental Change.

    EMR

  13. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Whether we are Republican or Democrat, Libertarian or Conservative, Spender or Cheapskate, we may eventually learn that a tad of tolerance is worth a load of legislation.

    Wasn’t it Thomas Jefferson who suggested that America would becom the first nation to legislate itself into totalitarianism?

    Maybe we should pass a law …. All legislation must have a sunset date. That way we we can keep the legislators employed passing the same old laws over and over and not burden ourselves with new ones.

    After enough iterations on the old ones maybe we eventually get them right.

    Ray Hyde
    Delaplane, VA

  14. Will Vehrs Avatar
    Will Vehrs

    Barnie, again, without reviewing each special election, I don’t think we can say definitively that cultural conservatism as a voting bloc is on the wane.

    I’m certainly willing to entertain the notion that cultural conservatives in the House have wildly overplayed their hand and actually are harming the causes they support. Their fixation on social issues, without corresponding “conservative” positions on fiscal issues have lost them a subset of conservatives. Conservatives sympathetic to reasonable interpretations of social issue conservatism but believe it to be in the private, not public realm, are disaffected. Whether that subset is going to Democrats or just not voting, I can’t say.

    You seem strangely unwilling, Barnie, to my real theory, which is that Democrats are having it both ways and, so far, winning elections with that strategy. They play down social issues in the campaign, but vote for social issue legislation knowing the Senate will kill it and fellow Democrats won’t mind. They are not running against the social conservative “agenda.”

    To me, that strategy indicates that maybe Virginia is more socially conservative, but social conservatives are fouling up the marketing.

  15. Barnie Day Avatar
    Barnie Day

    Will, my friend, I learned early that there is a certain genius attached to picking one’s fights! Your point is well made. Conceding that some Dems do play to the cheap seats on conservative social issues (abortion, guns, tobacco)–in some(let’s call them the NASCAR) districts–as a matter of survival, I’ll pass on scuffling you over it! (I learned early, too, that a good run beats a poor stand any day!)

  16. Jim Bacon Avatar
    Jim Bacon

    The discussion so far regarding the original question — “Is Virginia Becoming More Culturally Conservative” — has added a number of illuminating possibilities. Since my last post, Paul has raised a valid point regarding the realignment of the political parties along ideological lines. Ed notes the difficulty of being an informed citizen in a increasingly complex and time-consuming society.

    The common theme is that the eruption in recent years of socially conservative bills is the result of structural changes in the political system. So far, no one has been willing to admit the possibility (horrors!) that the number of cultural conservatives might actually be growing faster than the population as a whole.

    Consider this: Cultural conservatives are associated with certain values and lifestyles that promote childbirth. They oppose abortion. Women are more likely to get married younger, become homemakers, and have more children. The fertility rate of culturally conservative women is significantly higher than it is for liberal women who delay marriage and childbirth in favor of advancing their careers. Let’s assume that that the Suzy Homemakers of the world average 2.5 children while the LouAnn Lawyers average 1.5 children. Assuming that children hold values similar to those of their parents, that skews the odds in favor of the cultural conservatives by 5 to 3 with each generation.

  17. Steven Avatar
    Steven

    A view from the Evangelical cheap seats: The conservative social legislation is a backlash.

    Political trends take about a decade to root and this “happening” has been in the making since 1995. Barnie noted the Democratic gains in the special elections, but failed to mention the candidates were moderate-to-conservative with social issues.

    At the helm, Gov. Warner has either waffled or ignored the social issues and provided cover for those new Democratic candidates.

    In fact, examine the views of the current crop of Democratic statewide candidates, such as Kaine, Puckett, Petersen, Deeds. Those front runners are pro-gun, anti-gay & lesbian marriage and support a pro-life agenda or at the least, support legislation curbing abortions.

    It’s a social conservative happy hour.

    Happy yet? Let me sober you up … The DEMS are working extremely hard to become social conservatives, but for the most part, they just do NOT understand the Evangelical movement and are not vested in those organizations, such as the Family Foundation.

    And the clock is ticking.

    The past few years are only minor skirmishes, the conservative culture war is here to stay.

  18. Barnie Day Avatar
    Barnie Day

    By gawd,Jim, I think you’re on to something! Barefoot and pregnant, and thumping them Bibles! If we could somehow work some Tammy Wynette soundtrack into this blog, to go with that image, I could die happy!

  19. Paul Avatar
    Paul

    My understanding was always that the birthrates in inner city areas were higher than the suburbs. Nevertheless, it would be interesting to see if cultural conservatives were “breeding out” the rest of us.

    But I’m not convinced…mainly because the theory relies upon the idea that children follow in their parents partisan footsteps. That may have been true 80 years ago, but after the 60s, it’s not neccesarily true.

    I think most of us don’t believe that cultural conservatism has expanded, because we’ve watched the mainstream media shoot far to the left over the last 30 years on gay rights, feminism, and a variety of other issues. It’s just hard to say that the cultural conservatism has grown…I think it’s become more organized, but I don’t think the sheer numbers have grown.

    And like I said before – back when the parties split the social conservatives, they couldn’t effectively push legislation. Now they’re united in base of the Republican Party – so they’re able to push their agenda more forcefully.

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