Bacon's Rebellion

Give the President His Due

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by

James A. Bacon
in

I am nothing if not contrary on mornings like this, so let’s rub some fur in the wrong direction. Hindsight is always 20-20, of course, but it was actually clear over the weekend that the President’s 11th hour, 50th minute visit to Virginia provided a late but measurable boost to the Republican effort all over Virginia. Had he not come, I think Kilgore’s loss would have been worse and another 1985-style sweep could have resulted. Both internal and published polls indicated the trend was very strong for the Democratic ticket as a whole, and had there been a complete meltdown it would have bled into more House races. I think the Survey USA tracking poll, showing 9 for Kaine and then 5 for Kaine and a tie on the final day of tracking, reflects the impact of the Bush visit.

The absence of an earlier appearance by Bush was a problem for the Kilgore campaign. What happened and why with that Norfolk opportunity is unknown, but there was widespread news reporting that somebody snubbed somebody and that had to depress the President’s hard core faithful. Those of us who voted for him — those of us who have sent our children to war — are not enjoying his travails and look for a comeback.

This was an act of political selflessness on Bush’s part. By coming, and everybody behind the curtain must have known if wouldn’t save Kilgore, he gave Bush-bashers around the world a video clip we will see all week and maybe up through the 2006 midterm election. By coming he turned a possible nightmare for Republicans into just a bad night (with a couple of recounts pending to see how bad.) Republicans, repeat afer me: Thank You, Mr. President.

To all from all parties who stood in the whirlwind yesterday, and did what most sane people won’t and made the run, thank you. The process only works when there is competition, and we sure had that.

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8 responses to “Give the President His Due”

  1. James Atticus Bowden Avatar
    James Atticus Bowden

    Steve: So can you put a number on a one evening visit? Like the President’s visit equals 3 points or what? Curious about your estimate.

  2. Steve Haner Avatar
    Steve Haner

    Hard to put a number, it is question of intensity. Remember, the one evening visit was preceeded by three or four days of coverage, and led the news on Monday and Tuesday. I think if you could spell the word Republican you got three robocalls inviting you to come.

    The reason I kept thinking about 1985 was because of the similarities — a divided, even surly Republican party. Kaine ran a very, very good campaign and the Governor accomplished the difficult and transfered his popularity to a successor (harder than it looks). But what really happened yesterday is droves of Repbublicans, who had voted for Bush, stayed home. Turnout was below 2001. I think Bush provided a positive, upbeat, unifying message that brought some more of them out. I haven’t tried to noodle out the numbers yet.

  3. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Steve, gotta disagree with your take, strongly.

    Had Bush’s visit come during the weekend and been somewhere else other than a 20 minute hanger visit at a runway, yes I think we could ascribe something to it. But as it was, it occured too late and was a story lost in the forest of 1000 other last-minute campaign stories.

    I’m out here in Western Virginia and I gotta tell you that Bush’s visit got zero coverage. I heard the same from folks in tidewater and nova. The visit was a Richmond thing only and from the results in Henrico and Chesterfield, I think it would be far more fair to suggest that the visit had the opposite effect in those two strongly republican counties. Further, Kaine’s numbers in Richmond (Kilgore’s adopted hometown according to his own website) were through the roof. Bush didn’t help Kilgore, at best.

  4. Common Man Avatar
    Common Man

    Wow! I hadn’t thought of it like that. Now I can see clearly that Bush’s comment about how Kilgore understood the “common man…” was so electrifying and perfect, coming as it did from an Andover, Yale and Harvard “commoner”. By the sweat of his brow shall ye know them!

    Gosh…George is one of us!

  5. Steve Haner Avatar
    Steve Haner

    Anon 9:21. With a turnout in Henrico of 52 percent, in Hanover of 57 percent and in Chesterfield of 49 percent — when the statewide turnout is struggling up to 46 percent — even if the Bush visit only impacted the Richmond TV viewing area, it really helped Bolling and McDonnell. Would it have been better for him to go to Virginia Beach (turnout 37 percent!)? Maybe. Would it have been better if the rally happened that Friday when Bush was already in Norfolk? Arguably.

  6. Scott Avatar
    Scott

    Bush is due alright- for impeachment!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    He is leading the country towards miltary defeat and economic devastation.

  7. Anonymous Avatar
    Anonymous

    Steve —

    Those SURVEYUSA numbers you use to make your case about the Bush visit are laughable. Their methods and admitted errors in the last survey make their polls not worth the paper they are written on. Ask any pollster — DEM or GOP.

  8. Steve Haner Avatar
    Steve Haner

    Which of them should I ask — the Republicans who were still shilling that Kilgore was winning and McDonnell was a lock? Or the Dems who had internals showing Kaine up by 11 among the most likely voters? (And a 44 percent turnout means only the most likely bothered to come.) SurveyUSA said it was five points and it was 5 point something points. Kinda nailed it, didn’t they?

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