By Steve HanerThe aggressive progressive agenda working its way through the 2024 Virginia General Assembly has lost some steam at the halfway point, but at least four of the major Democratic goals discussed earlier are still advancing. The two bills which will have the greatest impact on the Virginia economy are the proposed minimum wage increase and a new state-managed employee benefit for workers taking time off under the Family and Medical Leave Act. The two other bills the Democratic majorities in both the Virginia Senate and House of Delegates have now approved are a major expansion of procurement preferences for minority vendors and allowing class actions in civil litigation. The good news is that several bills stalled on Tuesday, when the first legislative deadline for action passed, including a bill to create a system of local rent controls, a bill to allow more local and state employees to unionize, and a bill to remove exemptions to the statutory cap on cash awards for medical malpractice. The failure of those bills, however, does not mean the Assembly could not find some way to revive the issues before the planned adjournment in March, and the bills which are still alive still have time to stall — especially if the two chambers passed slightly different versions. There is no conflict in the two versions raising the minimum wage to $13.50 per hour beginning next year, and to $15 per hour as of 2026. The House has also passed a bill removing the exemptions from minimum wage that once covered farm workers and certain temporary foreign workers. Beginning in 2027, the minimum wage will begin an annual adjustment up for inflation. This is like the inflation kicker Democrats imposed on Virginia’s gas taxes when they last had full control of state government. The fiscal impact statement on the minimum wage bills provides some insight into how much this will cost state and local governments, both for their own employees who do not meet the new wage levels and for the cost of contracted work. It does not delve into the costs in the private sector in the form of higher payrolls and lost jobs, and ignores how much additional income tax revenue the state will reap. No effort was made to counteract that revenue gain by indexing Virginia’s tax brackets, as we proposed. One state agency with a big bill for higher wages would be the Department of Medical Assistance Services, which pays for personal assistance for many Medicaid patients, in or out of nursing homes. By 2027 it would exceed $300 million in higher wages and by 2030 it would approach $700 million. Half of that would come from federal funds paid from federal taxes, of course. The fiscal impact statement on the proposed Family and Medical Leave Act wage replacement program is also a key document. The bill which passed the Senate Tuesday is a substitute but does not seem to be much different from the introduced bill. The House did not act on a similar bill on its side, but that could mean it was merely waiting for the Senate bill. The federal FMLA dictates employers must allow employees who have a covered event (illness, birth, sick family member) to take 12 weeks off. But there is no pay unless they have accrued leave of their own or the company provides a short-term disability plan, which many do. This new state program would exempt employers who have such a plan, if (and only if) it provides benefits equal to or greater than mandated by the state. As the bill is now drafted all employers without a qualified plan of their own, not just those above a certain size, will have to pay into the trust fund for these benefits, which can be claimed once per year, every year, providing workers 80 percent of their pre-leave wage, or 80 percent of the average weekly wage (the average is currently $1,410) in Virginia, whatever is lower. The tax rate used to do the fiscal impact projection was just under 1% of payroll, half paid by the employer and half deducted from the employee’s pay, just as with the Social Security and Medicare taxes. Will the availability of wage replacement encourage more employees to take FMLA leave or stay out longer than they do now? That is not a question the FIS delved into, but it is a critically important question. Nor did it probe the idea that employers with a private plan might opt to drop and go with the state system instead to socialize the cost. The bill gives the state a year or more to design all this, and that task itself will be a major undertaking, overseen by a board with union representation. Also ripe with potential unintended consequences is the expansion of the state’s vendor preferences for small, woman-owned and minority-owned businesses, or SWaM. Again, the substitute which has passed the House is much changed from the original bill, but anybody who does business with the state, its universities or local governments should read the bill and the fiscal impact statement. Businesses owned by disabled veterans would be added to the list of preferred vendors. A new Division of Procurement Enhancement would be created, and a new Small SWaM Business Enhancement Program created, with a target of 23% of contracts going to SWaM vendors, 42% to small businesses and in some cases 50% of construction subcontracts to preferred vendors. State executive branch agencies and the universities will have additional reporting requirements and will be subject to regular “disparity studies” of their contracting efforts. According to the impact statement, during fiscal year 2023 the state spent $10 billion through its electronic procurement process on 650,000 purchase orders. This bill is not yet getting the notice it deserves despite the major impact it will have on Virginia contractors. The final issue from the earlier tracking list still alive in both House and Senate is allowing state courts to entertain civil suits for an entire class of plaintiffs. Virginia is only one of a handful of states not allowing that yet, and our absence from the list also complicates efforts by Virginians to join actions in other states. A worthless fiscal impact statement ducks every single issue of cost, but this is bound to add work for the courts and added liability risks to businesses. Most of these bills, except for the procurement bill, passed on party line or near party line votes. That may make it easier for Governor Glenn Youngkin (R) to contemplate vetoes or amendments to water them down, but so far, the minimum wage is the only one he has spoken about publicly. First published this morning by the Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy.
Four Major Progressive Goals Still Advancing
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47 responses to “Four Major Progressive Goals Still Advancing”
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My focus is clearly economic and energy issues. The progressive wave has risen to a tsunami in other parts of the Code, like gun control, but others are better suited to discuss that. And the energy bill that has me exercised now is hardly progressive, but a regression to the bad old days of the GA micromanaging energy policy it doesn’t understand. Basically the Rs are passing it. 🙂
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Don’t have much of a doubt, these will get swatted down by Youngkin and no way in heck they override.
Youngkin does have some ability to amend but not clear on how that process works or if any will be “salvageable” by amendment.
The Founding Fathers knew about divided govt and how legislation would go forward (or not) with divided govt.
The chance that the GOP could win the Gov and both houses was not at all inconceivable but even without, The GOv still does have some major power and moderating force even if only for one-term.
Or am I way wrong on this view?
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It will take a majority in both chambers to make any amendment. So at least two Dems in each would have to support (I can’t remember if the LG can vote on those, but I think not.)
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To expand on Steve’s answer: The governor can propose amendments. If the amendments does not receive a majority affirmative votes in either house, the bill goes back to the governor as it passed and he can then sign it or veto it.
I think the LG can vote in the case of a tie vote on amendments on any bill other than the budget bill. The wording in Article IV of the state constitution says that only members elected to each house may vote on appropriations. Bill Bolling cited this provision when he declined to break a tie vote when he was LG.
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Is it majority vote for veto overrides and amendment concurrence of super majority?
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My focus is clearly economic and energy issues. The progressive wave has risen to a tsunami in other parts of the Code, like gun control, but others are better suited to discuss that. And the energy bill that has me exercised now is hardly progressive, but a regression to the bad old days of the GA micromanaging energy policy it doesn’t understand. Basically the Rs are passing it. 🙁
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I keep expecting Dems to pay (more) money to people who buy EV’s, but I guess not yet?
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Watch the budget Sunday. A member amendment sought to appropriate $40M.
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What are you thoughts on the impact of SB231 on the budget?
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https://leg1.state.va.us/cgi-bin/legp504.exe?241+oth+SB231F122+PDF
See for yourself. Not huge at first.
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https://leg1.state.va.us/cgi-bin/legp504.exe?241+oth+SB231F122+PDF
See for yourself. Not huge at first.
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Nice caveat “at first”. Nothing like a 33% increase in funding requirements in 5 years.
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The affirmative action procurement mandate was re-drafted, squeezing through holes in recent court cases saying affirmative action is unconstitutional. Affirmative action can’t be permanent. So they stuffed in make-believe sunset provisions, periodically kicking the can down the road. Affirmative action must remedy actual, provable, previous discrimination in contracting. There isn’t any in the last 60 years so they substitute statistics. A way of shoehorning in group-grievance. “There are lies, damn lies, and statistics,” said Mark Twain. Creates a massive new affirmative action bureaucracy, inflates the cost of everything Virginia state and city and county governments buy — but in a Presidential election year, with the NAACP behind this bill one wonders what Youngkin will do.
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A similar bill also sailing under the radar is the effort to create a state bureaucracy to set drug prices. The Democrats have an unbounded faith that more and more government is always the answer, and taxpayer A should subsidize taxpayer B. Virginia’s best days are behind her.
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re: ” The Democrats have an unbounded faith that more and more government is always the answer,”
like regulations for abortion, buying birth control, transgender, book bans, highe ed tuition, etc?
You ought clarify a bit!
how many bills in the GA from the GOP?
😉
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re: ” The Democrats have an unbounded faith that more and more government is always the answer,”
like regulations for abortion, buying birth control, transgender, book bans, highe ed tuition, etc?
You ought clarify a bit!
how many bills in the GA from the GOP?
😉
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As a Transwoman myself, I can honestly say the majority of us are sickened by the Democrats pro-trans nonsense they keep shoving down the average American throats!🤦♀️ These Marxist progressives who claim that they speak for us are going to get us all killed! The only thing they’ve accomplished is causing the entire nation to distrust and hate us! 🤦♀️ Honestly I believe they want the trans Community to be the new black community…… So they could relive their ’60s civil rights Glory Days via a new demographic. 😒
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Interesting. So you pretty much represent the thinking of many or most transgenders?
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I represent the thinking of most transsexuals…..🤷♀️
“Transgender” is a made-up term by the left so they could include crossdressers, weirdos, and freaks under the trans umbrella. Believe me us real transsexuals have been around for quite a while. But once these transgenders popped up on the scene, they turned everything into a shitshow! And by them doing that it drags all us real trans people down along with them. We’re basically guilty by association! Even though most of us don’t associate with the transgender clowns. 😒
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As a Transwoman myself, I can honestly say the majority of us are sickened by the Democrats pro-trans nonsense they keep shoving down the average American throats!🤦♀️ These Marxist progressives who claim that they speak for us are going to get us all killed! The only thing they’ve accomplished is causing the entire nation to distrust and hate us! 🤦♀️ Honestly I believe they want the trans Community to be the new black community…… So they could relive their ’60s civil rights Glory Days via a new demographic. 😒
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Larry, have you ever read the Road to Serfdom? You should. By the way, government action is best when it focuses on causes and not consequences.
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Bill, you know who wrote that book, RIght? And what his viewpoints were? He essentially advocated for countries that run like 3rd world countries, right?
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You have either not read it or didn’t understand it. He was drawing attention to the problems caused by an over g0verned society.
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I understand his philosophy pretty well. Name countries on earth today that operate according to his philosophy.
The truth is that countries with many laws and regulations are, in fact, the highest productivity countries and the ones with fewer are much lower productivity.
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Is that why Germany is deindustrializing? You have far too much faith in the administrative state.
Hayek’s audience was Britain and the best evidence is what happened to its economy when Thatcherism replaced socialism.
You and I have NO common ground. -
I deal with realities BIll. German is not deindustrializing or anything like it. Germany is
dealing with a competitiveness issue with regard to the cost of the things it produces.
Central Planning countries are the biggest competitors on world trade , not 3rd world “small govt”
countries. -
You are wrong about Germany and what is driving the costs that is leading to deindustrialization.
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It’s a world economy Bill and the majority of countries that participate in it that do have high GDP per capita
are countries with central planning. The countries with the least central planning are largely 3rd world
with atrocious literacy and per capita GDP.
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“Centralized planning is inherently undemocratic in Hayek’s view, because it requires “that the will of a small minority be imposed upon the people”.[20] The power of these minorities to act by taking money or property in pursuit of centralized goals, destroys the Rule of Law and individual freedoms.[21]”
Tell me how we do public roads, Bill.
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Hayek never said that there was no role for government. Public goods are a perfect example of where it has a comparative advantage.
Here’s a question. Is it possible for the govt to spend tax money on something that improves/increases productivity?
So, for instance, If taxpayers pay for child care, does that increase productivity?
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By your logic and political philosophy there is no problem with the level of our national debt and confiscatory taxation is the solution for all of our problems.
If you think that China’s centrally controlled economy is how the world should work, you are in a very distinct minority. You can live there but I would never.-
In other words you are seeking Utopia. Name the countries that have central planning and full democracy.
I suspect your list will be those that have mixed economies. -
Total BS and you know it Bill. The issue is whether or not Central Planning is a bad policy according to Hayek. There is no utopia with or without central planning. But knowing the difference between Hayeks theories and the realities in
a modern world economy counts. You want a list of countries ranked with the highest per capita GDPs that have central planning? https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/gdp-per-capita/ NOW, you SHOW me the countries with the least central planning and their per capita GPDs! -
As Daniel Patrick Monyihan once observed, we are all entitled to our own opinions, just not our own facts.
You have your own definition of a centrally planned economy. It is not what most knowledgeable people define it as, which is an economic system in which the government controls the production and distribution of goods and services. In this type of economic system, government favors the elimination of private property and promotes a common or collective ownership.
Are you in favor of further reducing personal freedom and granting the federal government control over the factors of production? -
Well, we should get to what the definition of a centrally planned economy is especially with respect to Mr. Hayek.
I do not subscribe to the notion that Central Planning means the govt controls production nor distribution of goods and services. But that leaves quite a bit like the simple thing of how we get public roads if the govt does not do it which means using money taken from people (taxes) as well as land taken from property owners so that all people have freedom of movement and business and the economy have what they need to operate and be sustainable.Can you imagine, for instance, how business would work in a country where there are no public roads or that all
the roads are privately owned or a country where powerlines could not be planted if property owners disagreed?
Can you imagine if property owners had no public access beyond their own property how such an economic system
would “work”?It’s just defies common sense to envision a country with no central planning as Hayek was advocating, except for
well known 3rd world basket cases:“In the late 1930s and early 1940s, Hayek turned to the debate about whether socialist planning could work. He argued that it could not. The reason socialist economists thought central planning could work, argued Hayek, was that they thought planners could take the given economic data and allocate resources accordingly. But Hayek pointed out that the data are not “given.” The data do not exist, and cannot exist, in any one mind or small number of minds. Rather, each individual has knowledge about particular resources and potential opportunities for using these resources that a central planner can never have. The virtue of the free market, argued Hayek, is that it gives the maximum latitude for people to use information that only they have. In short, the market process generates the data. Without markets, data are almost nonexistent.”
Apply the above thinking to the real world as we know it today. Does anyone think that “planners” can’t obtain
“data” upon which to make “decisions”? Hayek was the ultimate ivory tower guy IMO. Just totally out of touch
with how the real world works. -
Just to be clear, Hayek never proposed a system with no government role in supplying public goods. Of course planners can obtain data but there are a lot of economic variables and expertise that they can’t replicate. Look at what happened to the auto industry after the Arab oil embargo as a result of government planning. The manufacture of good small cars went to Japan and the station wagon disappeared.
It is not Hayek who was the ivory tower guy, it is you.
Moynihan would be describing you if he was still alive. -
Central Planners these days have far more information than any individual has.
Do you NOT think Japan is not a country that is centrally planned? Station wagon? Geeze Bill. Have you see the modern
SUVs like the Subaru Forester? It’s a station wagon if there ever was one! geeze guy!Ivory Tower is not dealing with the modern world the way it really is. Hayek was an ideologue out of touch
with realities IMO. Certainly not a person we should look at today with answers on how a modern world economy
actually works.
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The countries with the highest GDP Per Capita are Luxembourg, Norway, Ireland, Switzerland, and Qatar. None have centrally planned economies.
In my view, most all are very much so with the exception of Qatar which is a Kingdom. And the next 10-20 on that
list also are. Simple stuff Bill , like public roads. Roads built by the govt, centrally managed in terms of where they go and who can use , who paid for them, where did the land for the roads come from, How was it obtained?
Do you not think that the interstate highway system and highways like it in other countries was not the product of Central Planning?
In my view, most all are very much so with the exception of Qatar which is a Kingdom. And the next 10-20 on that
list also are. Simple stuff Bill , like public roads. Roads built by the govt, centrally managed in terms of where they go and who can use , who paid for them, where did the land for the roads come from, How was it obtained?
Do you not think that the interstate highway system and highways like it in other countries was not the product of Central Planning?
You give new meaning to the term central planning. The US is considered to have a mixed economic system and it was when President Eisenhower initiated the interstate highway system.
You can post another silly comment but I won’t respond because I can’t deal with someone who has his own unique language and own set of facts to fit that language.
You give new meaning to the term central planning. The US is considered to have a mixed economic system and it was when President Eisenhower initiated the interstate highway system.
You can post another silly comment but I won’t respond because I can’t deal with someone who has his own unique language and own set of facts to fit that language.
Yes, we know Eisenhower initiated it but do you think it was a product of “Central Planning”?
Maybe you can define what you think it is and is not and give examples of countries that fit your definitions?
When you say “mixed”, I suspect you could say that about virtually industrialized countries and no real
clarity as to what you are saying at all.
Virtually all, if not all, industrialized countries have Central Planning . Geeze Bill, what do you think a National
Budget is if not central planning?
but, please, how about saying what the 10 countries below are with regard to your preferred definition of central planning:
China – 28.4% Global Manufacturing Output
United States – 16.6% Global Manufacturing Output
Japan – 7.5% Global Manufacturing Output
Germany – 5.8% Global Manufacturing Output
India – 3.3% Global Manufacturing Output
South Korea – 3% Global Manufacturing Output
Italy – 2.3% Global Manufacturing Output
France – 1.9% Global Manufacturing Output
United Kingdom – 1.8% Global Manufacturing Output
Indonesia – 1.4% Global Manufacturing Output
Bill, if you are talking about Countries like Cuba and North Korea with regard to “central planning” where they actually DO control most of the means of production, I’d agree, but I don’t think when I read Hayek, that he limits his definition to
just that. He goes further into what he calls “socialism” which is yet another word that means different things to different people. But take something like Medicare, Medicaid, ObamaCare and even Employer-provided health insurance. It’s ALL govt-planned and enabled. It’s not an at will free-market for the most part. ObamaCare has a “marketplace” of providers that people can choose from but they are also subsidized depending on their income. And if Medicare /Medicaid is not “socialism” per se, I don’t know what is. I’m pretty sure Hayek would vociferously oppose them as “socialism”.
Is this what you are talking about? Do you want to engage on the issue or just throw personal insults?
Well?…..it looks like all the folks who fled New York and moved to Hampton roads recently will now find themselves having to move again! 🙄🤦♀️
This is in NO WAY SUSTAINABLE for the businesses here in the seven cities! Small business out here in this area is already on life support…… And this will do nothing but ring to death bell! 😒
Looks like Democrats only solution to all of the inflation they caused is to create more inflation by raising wages. 🤦♀️ But just wait till California raises minimum wage to $50 an hour! 🤷♀️….. There won’t be anybody left in that state to pay taxes! 😒
Well?…..it looks like all the folks who fled New York and moved to Hampton roads recently will now find themselves having to move again! 🙄🤦♀️
This is in NO WAY SUSTAINABLE for the businesses here in the seven cities! Small business out here in this area is already on life support…… And this will do nothing but ring to death bell! 😒
Looks like Democrats only solution to all of the inflation they caused is to create more inflation by raising wages. 🤦♀️ But just wait till California raises minimum wage to $50 an hour! 🤷♀️….. There won’t be anybody left in that state to pay taxes! 😒
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