by James C. Sherlock

The author attended a Virginia Republican convention a decade or so ago. He found it strange. He had the same unfortunate experience with too many members of both parties in the General Assembly. Since then, he has avoided advising the Virginia Republican Party leadership.  

But here goes.

Republicans will have to face the facts of demographic change and target their policies to maintain relevance. It would prove instructive if they began by studying the Weldon-Cooper Center’s population projections. Weldon-Cooper authors rightly suggest the numbers be taken with a grain of salt. Especially farther out in time. But they can be assumed to be directionally correct.

They would agree that their local demographic projections in Virginia depend on macro-level affordability across the state. Affordability can be roughly defined as a combination of well-paying jobs, the availability and cost of housing, and the cost of other goods and services.

But Weldon-Cooper projects that growth will expand existing trends. They forecast that it will be concentrated in metropolitan areas and that the population of the Southwest will continue its ongoing decline. Immigrant families will drive population growth.

The Republican Party must adjust.

Northern Virginia 

The author was raised in Falls Church pre-beltway and decades later worked in the Tysons area from 1995 to 2005.  

He visits often enough to grasp the current population density, the traffic nightmares, and the pull-up-the-ladder local government regulations governing residential construction. By squeezing supply, those regulations drive up the cost of both existing and new housing.

The labor market. Northern Virginia is thick with civilian federal workers and federal contractors.

President Trump’s decimation of Northern Virginia’s federal and federally funded jobs was a necessary attempt to reform a sclerotic government more adept at spending money than ensuring it is well spent. Many agencies do little of their own work. Instead, they welcome lobbying by former colleagues to distribute funds among contractors that line the Beltway and extend to every corner of the country. Finally, the federal employee portion of the Democratic base funds the not-for-profit portion. What could go wrong? Ask Minnesotans.

The bureaucracy, their favored social policy contractors, the not-for-profits of the left, and the Democratic Party, essentially indistinguishable, hate him for it. But they hated him anyway.

They haven’t seen anything yet. We await the Supreme Court’s overturning of Humphrey’s Executor in Trump v. Slaughter to create the unitary executive the Constitution requires.  

Democrats, when next in control in Washington, will work quickly to re-expand the federal bureaucracy. But no one will forget how tenuous government desk jobs have become, especially those vulnerable to changes of administrations and to AI. A federal desk job is not, and will not again be, the career sinecure it was even a decade ago.  

Transportation Safety. The Northern Virginia Metro remains a disgrace. Fare evasion has reached 70%. People, especially women, are scared to ride it.

Affordability. Tempering the Weldon Cooper projections, Fairfax County, Arlington County, and Alexandria are among 20 localities in the state that are losing population in every age group except the 65-plus cohort. The primary reason is that it’s too expensive to live there.

Loudoun growth continues, but a boom in low-cost, government-subsidized housing has not been a feature of that, the wealthiest county in America. A glance at the 57-page SOP for Loudoun’s Affordable Dwelling Unit Purchase Program gives a sense of the difficulties imposed.   

Affordability, absent increased economic competition and with the tenuous nature of thousands of six-figure government jobs and contractor positions, will prove illusory in Northern Virginia.  

Immigrant Populations

According to Encyclopedia Virginia:

In Virginia, over 10% of the population is Latino, with the largest groups being Salvadoran, Mexican, and Puerto Rican. The Latino population is concentrated in Northern Virginia, the Tidewater region, and the Richmond area. The median age of the Latino population is just over 29 years, and it is projected to grow to 1.6 million people (17% of the state’s population) by 2030.

Another readily observed trend is the growth and success of the Asian-heritage community. In 2020, Asian Americans accounted for 7% of Virginia’s population.

The Asian American population in Northern Virginia (121,743) grew faster than that of Hispanic Americans (115,577) between 2010 and 2020.    

Hispanic and Asian American citizens hold very positive views of America and have proven to be outstanding additions to Virginia and the nation. No political party can be successful going forward without their votes.

The children of immigrants want affordability, safety, good schools, and convenient transportation options just like everyone else.   

What to do?

If Republicans continue to focus exclusively on “Democrats bad” rather than their own policies, they will not regain the majority. They must emphasize popular conservative themes that the party, especially in Virginia, too often fails to articulate.  

• Many Hispanic and Asian-American citizens voted for Donald Trump when he ran on stopping illegal immigration. However, they strongly favor legal immigration, particularly when it is merit-based.  Join them in welcoming legal newcomers who can contribute to society.
• That same demographic is more likely to start small businesses than to pursue government jobs. Emphasize policies that support small businesses.
• Offer to bring down costs through competition by selectively reducing existing regulations that raise costs and reduce options.  
• Point to the progress made by the Trump administration in reducing gasoline costs. Talk about the automobile affordability effects of last week’s cancellation of unattainable CAFE standards.  
• Offer a Virginia Republican proposal to deregulate the construction of nuclear power plants to speed their arrival and drive down electricity costs. It will find broad appeal.
• Offer to remove regulatory barriers to drive down costs and delays in the construction of housing and support the renovation of office buildings to residential use.  
• Immigrants seek a better life for their kids. Urban schools are horrible across the state, and in many places, full of ESL kids. State clearly how competition driven by vouchers will improve education.  
• Explain to voters that regional monopolization of healthcare services, except in the Richmond area, and the integration of provider monopolies with providers both drive up their costs. Remind them of the Affordable Care Act market scandal in Charlottesville/Albemarle, where one insurer had that market to itself in 2018 and 2019 with Ralph Northam as Governor. That region’s policies instantly became the most expensive in the nation. Offer competition-based approaches — starting with repeal of COPN — to lower the costs of healthcare in this state. Enlist natural allies — the medical societies, nurses’ organizations, insurance companies, and brokers — to help carry the message.
• Target violent crime where it happens most. Republican leaders should study Virginia’s violent crime map. Note the hardest hit areas, especially around Dulles Airport, along I-95 north and south of Fredericksburg, and south of Richmond. Most vote heavily Democratic. Bring conservative messaging to those most affected.

Bottom Line  

The current leadership of the Republican Party in Virginia has proven unable to articulate conservative policies that will attract a larger share of voters. They have not discussed how their policies will improve affordability. They have largely ignored the recruitment of legal immigrants and their children to join the party. Finally, they have failed broadly to recruit and fund candidates likely to drive turnout. Glenn Youngkin funded his own campaign.

They need to get it together or step aside.