One of the persistent themes of Bacon’s Rebellion is that human settlement patterns influence the demand for new roads. Some of us have argued that scattered, disconnected, low-density development patterns force motorists to make more car trips and drive greater distances — thus putting more stress on the transportation system — than their counterparts living in more compact, more balanced and better designed communities.
While most people commenting in this blog accept the idea that the pattern and density of development has some impact on travel, some disagree that it’s a significant factor. In the end, everybody’s arguments go around in circles because no one can produce “conclusive” evidence one way or the other.
Maybe it’s time to start gathering “conclusive” evidence. Building upon an idea suggested by Chris Miller, president of the Piedmont Environmental Council, I would propose a two-part initiative.
(1) Categorize every census block in Virginia by its dominant development pattern, accounting for variables such as population density, building type, street pattern (grid street, cul de sac, whatever), presence of mass transit and other salient characteristics. (I’m open to ideas on which key variables should be considered.)
(2) Then append to the list of census blocks these two data sets: (a) Census commuting data, and (b) Division of Motor Vehicle data on vehicle miles driven by every licensed driver residing in the census tract.
That relatively simple exercise should provide the data to answer once and for all the question whether certain settlement patterns generate more automobile traffic than others — and by how much.
Given the General Assembly’s new-found interest in measuring the impact of new development upon traffic, the findings of such a study would prove extremely useful to everyone from academic researchers to local planning offices, from metropolitan planning organizations to VDOT.
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