by James A. Bacon

Attorney General Jason Miyares has released a video about his Ceasefire Virginia initiative, a collaboration between the AG’s office and local police to reduce violent crime.

The video caught my attention because its production values are slicker than anything that I recall coming out of the AG’s office before. Some of the testimonies are striking. But the video could be far more effective. It starts with a documentary-like feel but peters out with a series of interview clips strung together to no particular effect.

Ceasefire Virginia provides a potentially powerful crime-fighting alternative to leftist bafflegab about addressing the “social causes” of crime. It tackles gun violence head-on through the common-sense expedients of (1) enforcing existing gun laws; (2) punishing people who use guns in crimes; and (3) targeting repeat offenders who account for a disproportionate share of violent crimes.

None of this is explained in the video. I like what Miyares is doing, but Ceasefire Virginia needs better PR.

In the video Miyares says uplifting things like, “In America it doesn’t matter where you came from, it matters where you’re going.” Beautiful sentiment. But how does it apply to combating gun violence?

One has to go to the Ceasefire Virginia website to get a better understanding of what the program is all about. On another video posted on the website, Miyares gets straight to the point: “If you have an illegal gun in Virginia, it’s game over.”

“Only the law breaking — not the law abiding — should be looking over their shoulders in fear,” the website quotes Miyares as saying. “Ceasefire Virginia will work to keep violent, repeat offenders behind bars, protecting our communities and keeping our families safe.”

Now that makes sense.

The General Assembly has allocated $5 million to the Ceasefire Virginia program, in which the AG’s office collaborates with the police forces of 14 high-crime cities. Since its inception, the project has opened more than 100 criminal cases, with dedicated efforts in Petersburg and Richmond accounting for 29 of these cases.

But is it working? As I frequently observe, there is often a large gap between aspiration and results in government programs — especially those enacted by starry-eyed do-gooders. We need to hold programs accountable for their expenditure of tax dollars. Do they accomplish what they say they will? Often, the answer is no, and they need to be modified or scrapped outright. We need to apply the same remorseless logic to conservative policy ideas, too.

The Ceasefire Virginia website highlights selected data points such as 10,273 violent crimes committed in Virginia in 2024, 214 indictments, and 6,036 months sentenced in prison.

Great. But what do those numbers mean?

Some seem puffed up. Two-hundred-and-fourteen indictments. Nice. But how many convictions?

If those indictments resulted in 6,036 months of extra time sentenced, that averages about 2.4 years per indictment. The smaller number doesn’t sound quite as impressive. How many months of the longer sentences are even served? Do the slightly longer sentences exercise a deterrent effect?

If Mirayes’ communication team wants to persuade the public that Ceasefire Virginia is an effective crime-fighting program, it needs more than meandering videos. It needs to tell us the number of bad guys put into jail and how many violent crimes they had committed. It needs testimonials from their victims or their families. It needs statistics showing crime rates falling. It needs plaudits from prosecutors, police chiefs, and even academic criminologists saying that, yes, this initiative is working.

My gut tells me that Ceasefire Virginia is a worthwhile effort. But gut instinct is not enough. In a Democrat-leaning state with a Democrat-run legislature, conservatives have to up their game. We need to back our policy initiatives with rigorous analysis, hard data, and communications that drive home a clear message. I consider this video an opportunity lost.