Probably not. And Winsome Sears, who has failed to capitalize on her position as lieutenant governor, is no exception.

Paul Goldman

Virginia’s political reporters and pundits need to be honest. Here in 2025, being a Black woman is a very serious political disadvantage for GOP gubernatorial candidate Winsome Earle-Sears. No useful public interest is served by doing some Epstein-style discombobulating. The truth is what it is. 

Fact 1: No Black woman has ever been elected Governor of any state. Do you honestly believe there haven’t been many qualified Black women over the years to serve in these positions?

Fact 2: In 1989, Doug Wilder became the first Black person elected Governor of any state in the country, not only in Dixie. Since then, several dozen Black candidates have tried to be elected Governor in the southern states. They have all been defeated. Even when starting out as the polling favorite. Just coincidence? 

Fact 3: Several highly qualified Black women ran for the Virginia Democratic Party gubernatorial nomination in 2021. They received a combined 31.6% of the vote. Lieutenant Governor Justin Fairfax, a Black man, got 3.6%. Meaning the three Black candidates got 35.4% combined. Based on Dr. Larry Sabato’s research over the years, it would seem about 35% of the primary votes were from Black Virginians. 

Meaning: The two black women candidates – both incumbent legislators and considered to be exceptionally qualified — likely got less than 5% combined of the white vote outside of the their legislative districts. Five percent! I thought young Democrats say they’re woke? They couldn’t find even one Black person qualified for the job? 

Further Meaning: 36 years later, it seems you could hardly find a White Democrat — statistically — willing to vote for a Black woman in the 21th century. Two generations later perhaps Dr. Sabato finally understands why I was only the White person with any real political experience willing to run Doug’s campaign. And why top Democrats and the media treated me the way they did all these years because I called them out on their racism.

Conclusion: Being a Black woman is a serious political liability to Sears. That’s the truth. 

Stated another way: Had all things otherwise been equal in 2025, history says Sears would lose this fall to any credible Democratic candidate. The race would not have been close either. This is NOT Abigail Spanberger’s fault. She didn’t create the world of Virginia politics. In political terms, she has the good fortune to face a weak candidate. Wilder had similar luck in 1985. Warner in 2001. McAuliffe in 2013. Northam in 2017. 

But here is a far more important 2025 truth: all things would never have otherwise been equal this year. For any GOP gubernatorial candidate. Republican President Donald Trump has lost Virginia three straight times. The modern history of Virginia’s two-party system began in 1977. Since then, the gubernatorial candidate of the sitting President’s party has never received 50% of the vote. Trump’s mean-spirited attack on the federal workers living in NOVA is toxic for the GOP. His crusade has made the vote rich region even more hostile to Republicans than normal. 

Add to the mix: GOP Governor Youngkin’s lack of any 2025 strategy to elect his statewide ticket. Supposedly he wants to be a national figure. Perhaps run for President in 2028. Assuming of course, the U.S. Supreme Court doesn’t overturn the 22nd amendment. Saying it was obviously enacted in 1951 specifically to bar Donald Trump from running for a third elected term in 2028. Just kidding… sort of.

The Youngkin brand, as I understand, is that he can win a state Donald Trump and MAGA cannot. A plausible argument for a candidacy. But if your own brand can’t win in your own state, why should it win in any other Democratic leaning state?

His reputation is therefore on the line, too. He should have stepped down and let Sears become the first Black woman governor in American history. At least he’d have a legacy whether she could win a term on her own or not. 

I have never met LG Sears. In the modern era, being LG has normally proven a stepping-stone to become Governor. John Dalton (1977), Chuck Robb (1981), Doug Wilder (1989), Tim Kaine (2005), and Ralph Northam (2017) all moved up to the governorship in those years. Don Beyer (1993) is the only sitting LG to be nominated for Governor and then lose the general election. Getting barely 42.6% of the vote. In his defense, Don did try to take a principled fiscally responsible position. On the popular but fiscally reckless GOP proposal to use state money to repeal the local car tax. 

However, these five winning LG’s had one asset Sears does not have: They used the LG’s office to build a record of real achievement. The truth is Sears has been AWOL. Even though there were many opportunities. 

Therefore, let’s state a further truth: It is clear Sears wanted to run for Governor the moment she got sworn-in as LG. But in these years, she utterly failed to come up with any record recommending her for a promotion.

This failure is all on her, not political history. Sears just fired her campaign manager. Based on newspaper reports, her campaign manager had never previously run any campaign. This clownish situation is all on Sears. Who runs for governor with such a campaign manager? Not someone who wants to be taken seriously, in my experience.

In summary then, being a Black woman is a significant disadvantage for Sears. All around the country White women are increasingly winning the top state job. Spanberger is, therefore, benefiting from the work of many others. As they say in the Lion King, such is the cycle of life. She had the moxie to seize the opportunity. Unlike Congressmen Bobby Scott her former colleague. Let’s be truthful: Bobby is a good guy, but he lacked the guts to run. 

So, yes, any Democratic gubernatorial candidate this year is an overwhelming favorite to win. In 2017, President Trump likewise sat in the Oval Office. Democrat gubernatorial candidate Ralph Northam won by the biggest Democratic gubernatorial vote percentage since 1985. His coattails swept in the rest of the Democratic statewide ticket. 

Spanberger should do better. Trump is a greater liability. But she might lose if she makes a series of uncharacteristic unforced errors — like Arnold Palmer in the 1966 U.S. Open. He Lost seven shots in the last nine holes. The greatest meltdown ever. Or if Sears somehow does what the losing American woman finalist couldn’t do at Wimbledon this year. 

Sears’ race and gender should not be factors in determining who is the best qualified candidate. But these factors sadly will determine the votes of many people this fall. This is unfortunate. It’s wrong. However, given the current state of her campaign, these votes will not be the reason Sears loses. 

Logic would say the first Black woman trying to be governor would realize she needed something to appeal to Democratic voters. Every poll suggests Democrats are losing support from normal constituencies because they haven’t fixed the education problem despite promising to do it since 1964. Unlike other LG’s, though, Sears failed to champion a popular issue to show people what kind of governor they would be getting.

Some of this is on Governor Youngkin, who should have made sure she had something to run on. But in the end, Sears has only herself to blame.

Paul Goldman is former Chair of the VA Democratic Party and author of “Remaking Virginia Politics.”