by Paul Goldman

Poor Denmark: As if the threat of losing Greenland to President Donald Trump isn’t enough. Now Hampton Roads Congressman Bobby Scott as Hamlet? Such are the indignations the Danish people must endure today. Bobby is clearly not whom William Shakespeare had in mind for the princely role in 1600. He is a tad old for the part. But I ask you, who better to play a prince than a member of Congress? They get the royal treatment for sure.

There’s no denying that “to be or not to be” is the question hanging over Virginia’s gubernatorial race. Democratic Congressman Scott keeps saying he hasn’t ruled out running for governor in the Democratic primary. He has until late March to submit the required nomination materials.

Richard Burton’s Hamlet set the record with a 137-day run on Broadway. It’s fair to say Scott’s been at this a lot longer. This isn’t his first time he’s auditioned to play Hamlet. 

Former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger is understandably getting tired of Scott not making up his mind. Spanberger’s people are saying privately Scott is a wuss and knows Abigail would clean his clock in a primary fight. (I’ll discuss this later.)

From a female politician’s point of view, the whole Act 3, Scene 1 soliloquy thing must seem way overdone. Like Nike says, Just Do It. What’s with all the handwringing? Not very manly for a prince. That’s why Spanberger quit Congress after hardly being there. Like the Marines say, she is looking for a Few Good Men. But, frankly, why would you think you could find them at the State Capitol in Richmond? These guys started whining when they couldn’t get running water and food delivered for a day! Ran home to mommy. We got poor kids a few miles away from the new General Assembly building going hungry every night. They should try trading places. 

But I get it from the Spanberger team’s point of view. Scott needs to face reality. It’s their turn. Time has passed Bobby by. His Hamlet is really Much Ado About Nothing. There actually is a governor in that play. But it’s a comedy. 

However, let me try explain what’s going on from Hamlet’s perspective. 

Abigail has no apparent job right now except to run for Governor. She started running shortly after getting to Congress. This is a new thing for Hamlet to confront in terms of historic lineage. No male Democratic Governor has ever been allowed to do this. Ralph Northam was lieutenant governor when running for governor at this stage. Terry Mac was the owner of Greentech, the car company. Admittedly, it went bankrupt and produced only one car. But it was a job. Tim Kaine was LG. Mark Warner had his investment company.  Doug Wilder was LG. Jerry Bailies was AG. And Chuck Robb was LG. Dems have never nominated an unemployed male person for Governor who went onto win. 

Now, I understand men no longer get to make the rules. But you can see Scott’s dilemma. He’s been working diligently for 34 years at the same job Abby had. Abigail gets there, quickly quits and all her folks think she is more qualified for Governor than Scott. Even though he seems to have been way better at her job. 

“To (continue to) grunt and sweat under a weary life” is therefore, as Shakespeare wrote in Act III, a consideration for Hamlet as he decides whether to take action or not. Abigail bolted from this toiling existence. Without having even broken a sweat really. But Scott’s been hard at work doing the people’s business. He has responsibilities. Weighty burdens. 

“Thus conscience does make cowards of us all,” as Hamlet said trying to work it out in his mind. 

I will be the first to admit the Hamlet role may not be helping Mr. Scott. Abigail looks far more decisive. She seems the sure winner given her huge pile of campaign cash. Democratic women we are told think Abigail has earned the right to be Governor, that how dare Scott deny her/them at this late date? They see Scott as a loser who will only hurt Spanberger’s chances. 

But yet: Have we seen a poll pitting Scott versus Spanberger in a Democratic primary? No. Surely several have been taken. But we can imagine the contest playing out as follows based on prior nomination contest history. 

Abigail has successfully positioned herself as the non-liberal Democrat, a most effective strategy for Robb, Baliles, Warner, Kaine, Terry and Ralph. I should know, I helped a few of them do it. 

Scott, like Wilder, would take a different approach. The last primary between someone more like Scott and someone more like Spanberger was in 2017. The gubernatorial primary between more Northam (Spanberger) and Tom Perriello (Scott).

Northam won 56% to 44%. A landslide win. Thus seemingly making Spanberger the heavy favorite against Scott. As the pundits claim. But in 2017, the Black community backed Northam, not Perriello. I made a quick calculation using the 2017 vote, shifting Ralph’s support in certain cities Scott has represented to the Perriello total. This all but completely wiped out Northam’s 64,000 margin in 2017. Moreover, anyone who knows politics realizes Scott is gonna run much better than Northam in other cities due to greatly increased turnout.

Spanberger also has some statistical advantages based on 2017. But not nearly as pronounced as Scott’s. In part, this is due to Fairfax County, the biggest block of voters in any Democratic Party primary. Potentially casting upwards of 20% of the vote. Northam got 60%. Abigail’s key county. It’s difficult to see Abigail improving on that number against Scott in an area which is very attentive to how people vote in Congress. Those voters will likely agree with Scott on almost every issue. 

There are areas where Abigail will do much better than Northam because she represented those jurisdictions in Congress. I suspect the Spanberger people are also thinking they can trounce Scott in places like Alexandria, Arlington, etc. far better than Northam beat Perriello. That’s not what the historical numbers tell me. Spanberger will be lucky to carry these localities against Scott based on their demographics and how the issues will likely fall out in this campaign. He could easily win them. 

Bottom line: Spanberger may not have a statistical edge at the start. But it is true the most liberal candidate in a contested gubernatorial nomination fight has only won twice: Howell and Wilder. I was the chief guy for both of them. Both were statistical underdogs at the start. But won in the end. Howell in a huge primary upset. Wilder daring Mary Sue Terry to challenge him. The reason they win: each had a loyal constituency built over years of service to those constituents. The political establishment underestimates such loyalty. 

Bobby fits their mold. Abigail is closer to the Robb, Warner, Kaine, model. I helped all three in some way or another. But none faced a primary challenge. 

My gut instinct: a Howell/Wilder Democrat beats a Robb/Warner/Kaine/ Northam opponent in a 2025 gubernatorial primary. Thus the best Democratic ticket this year would be Scott for Governor and Spanberger for LG. 

A sure winning combo. The AG candidate would be along for the free ride. 

But in the end, I think Hamlet stays in Congress. After all, he hasn’t set up an exploratory committee. Or started to collect nomination petition signatures. Spanberger wins against the GOP nominee. Unless Gov. Youngkin is popular enough to pull Winsome-Sears across the line. Which he isn’t right now. Or if Democrats saddle Spanberger with an albatross of a LG nominee. Which right now they might do. 

Hamlet might have been written over 400 years ago — before Jamestown was settled. But the more things change in Virginia politics, the more they remain the same. 

Paul Goldman is former Chair of the VA Democratic Party, a former candidate for mayor of the City of Richmond, and author of “Remaking Virginia Politics.”