by James A. Bacon

The Loudoun County Sheriff’s Office is making more traffic stops this year than last. The number of stops conducted between Jan. 1 and March 31 this year totaled 7,088, up roughly 65% over the 4,290 stops made during the same period last year.

Sofia Saiyed, director of New Virginia Majority, knows exactly what to make of those numbers. The stops, she says, are “pretextual,” and the Sheriff’s Office is “practicing racial discrimination to target the immigrant community and funnel them into the deportation pipeline,” reports Loudoun Now.

What’s her evidence? She’s not claiming that Hispanics are getting stopped disproportionately more than Whites, because they’re not. She’s saying that, if stopped, they are more than eight times more likely to get searched. “This is clear racial profiling,” she says.

Is it really now? Or is this just another case of abused statistics?

First, we’ll look at the statistics themselves, and then we’ll see what the Loudoun County Sheriffs Office says about them.

The first level of analysis to compare the relative incidence of traffic stops. Is there evidence to suggest that Loudoun sheriffs are engaging in racial profiling when they stop motorists?

According to the data provided in the Loudoun Now article:

The percentage of traffic stops broken down by race/ethnicity is closely correlated with the percentage of traffic stops made by Loudoun sheriffs. Adjust for differences in average age (Whites are older than other groups, and older motorists tend to have fewer moving violations), education levels, and other factors, and there seem to be no disparities. To the contrary, the numbers stand out for their even-handedness.

Now let’s look at the % of motorists stopped by Loudoun sheriffs who are given tickets. (Loudoun Now doesn’t provide the data allowing us to calculate “other.”)

White motorists, once stopped, are more likely to get a traffic ticket than Hispanics or Blacks. Needless to say, New Virginia Majority didn’t make an issue of data that, according to the racial-disparities-equals-discrimination logic New Virginia Majority employs, would suggest that Loudoun deputies are biased against Whites. Such a conclusion would never do, so New Virginia Majority ignores the data.

Now we get to the nub of New Virginia Majority’s claim: Loudoun law enforcement may not stop Hispanics more frequently, or ticket them more frequently, but they do search them more frequently. Here’s the data:

No question, Hispanics are searched much more frequently than Whites and Blacks.

But let me offer a couple of prefatory observations. Usually, the claim is that cops profile Blacks for searches. But there’s not much difference between Whites and Blacks in Loudoun. So, whatever profiling is occurring, it’s not against Blacks. Secondly, it’s not as if most Hispanics get searched. We’re talking about one search in eight stops. Is that a lot? I would think that it depends on whether there is cause for searches or not.

New Virginia Majority offers absolutely no evidence to suggest that Loudoun deputies are initiating searches without cause. Their entire argument is based upon the supposition of bias.

What does Loudoun County have to say?

Sheriff’s spokesman Tom Julia told Loudoun Now that the increase in traffic stops results from better data, which makes better use of deputies’ time. “As we’ve gotten better trying to look at data analytics, where we can more predictably allocate patrol deputies based on time of day etc. … We’re getting a lot better at figuring out where to deploy folks.”

That explains the increase in traffic stops — deputies are focusing on where the violations occur. It’s not part of some insidious campaign to sweep up more illegal immigrants.

Julia also addresses the disparities in searches: “We are stopping for cause. A search is either granted or done with probable cause, such as ‘I see a gun in the back seat. … The most things we’re finding in these cars, particularly in the eastern part of the county is cocaine, its fentanyl and firearms.”

“There are longstanding issues in the greater Sterling area … and managing crimes there is a challenge,” he says. The change in methodology has paid off, he adds. Crime rates are down in the area served by its eastern Loudoun state; Assaults are down 17%, auto thefts by 36%, robberies by40%, and larcenies by 37%.

Who knows. Perhaps under closer scrutiny, Julia’s explanation is lacking. It never hurts to ask the tough questions. But if New Virginia Majority hasn’t asked those questions. It’s got nothing but its own bias — a bilious anti-cop bias that assumes racism and discrimination without evidence — to back up its bluster.