by James A. Bacon
Spending by Virginia’s state government isn’t just increasing — spending is increasing at an accelerating rate. The current budget biennium (fiscal 2021-22) and the next (fiscal 2023-24) will have seen the two biggest spending increases of the past nine budget cycles.
Assuming no modifications to the next biennial budget’s spending totals submitted by former Governor Ralph Northam, the combined General Fund and Non General Fund budgets will have increased 123% in the 17 years between fiscal 2007 and 2024.
(For purposes of comparison, the increase in the Consumer Price Index was 40% between 2007 and 2022. The state population increased 8.2% between 2010 and 2022. Spending has been increasing at roughly double the rate of inflation and population growth.)
Here is the increase in biennial budgets compared to the previous biennia:
2009-10: 4.5%
2011-12: 6.9%
2013-14: 8.3%
2015-16: 12.2%
2017-18: 8.6%
2019-20: 10.6%
2021-22: 17.1%
2023-24: 16.4%
So, what does Virginia get for its taxpayers’ money? We did get Medicaid expansion, which in theory should bring about an improvement to healthcare outcomes for lower-income Virginians. Unfortunately, mortality statistics have been so scrambled by the COVID epidemic that is impossible to know if that massive spending increase made a measurable difference or not.
What else have we gotten for our tax dollars? Better schools? To be sure, our schools have been more aggressive about implementing intersectional social-justice theory. But, sadly, education achievement as measured by standardized test scores has been a disaster.
Better public safety? Not in the past two years! Murders have surged and social order is deteriorating.
Better transportation systems? Hard to say. Traffic congestion has eased during the past two years. But it’s difficult to know whether to credit state-funded rail and highway transportation projects or the change in commuting patterns arising from the work-at-home trend.
Better colleges and universities? Quality has definitely improved if you appreciate the increased ideological purity and approve of the quashing of thought outside the social-justice paradigm. If you’re not into having your kids indoctrinated with left-wing dogma, as opposed to learning to think independently, then you might not be so happy.
A cleaner environment? Virginia has aggressively pursued a reduction in CO2 emissions (most of which it has achieved by replacing coal-fired electricity with gas-fired capacity). But how much of that gain, which supposedly benefits the world at large by making an infinitesimally small contribution to CO2 diminution in the atmosphere, comes at the expense of funding programs to clean the Chesapeake Bay, improve local water quality, and preserve wildlife habitat here in Virginia? Hard to say.
A more vibrant, dynamic economy? Virginia hasn’t seen a major economic-development success since landing Amazon’s East Coast headquarters four years ago. Virginia’s growth rate consistently lags that of the nation, and the state has shifted from being an importer of human capital (net domestic in-migration) to an exporter of human capital (net out-migration).
I feel the money being vacuumed out of my pocket, but I’m not feeling any benefit in return.
Virginia’s provincial political class, I’d conclude, is as intellectually bankrupt and incompetent as the cosmopolitan political class in Washington. Neither knows how to do anything but throw money at problems and line the pockets of noisy constituencies. Within living memory, Virginia was a strong state admired for its bipartisan cooperation, excellence of management in government, and vibrant economy. Today it’s mired in mediocrity and stagnation. What has all that state spending bought us? Not much that I can see.
