Bacon's Rebellion

VCU Study Finds 30,000 “Spillover” Deaths from COVID-19 Epidemic

Jul 13, 2020

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by James A. Bacon In March and April this year, the COVID-19 epidemic resulted in approximately 87,000 more deaths in the United States than the average for those months, concludes a new study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association. About 65% were directly attributable to the virus. The other 35% was due to spillover effects from the epidemic. Some “excess” deaths may reflect under-reporting of COVID-19 cases, and some might involve patients who died from related complications, such as heart disease, that were listed as the cause of death rather than COVID-19, says lead author Steven Woolf, director emeritus of Virginia Commonwealth University’s Center on Society and Health, based on a study by VCU and Yale University researchers. “A third possibility, the one we’re quite concerned about, is indirect mortality — deaths caused by the response to the pandemic,” Woolf said. “People who never had the virus may have died from other causes because of the spillover effects of the pandemic, such as delayed medical care, economic hardship or emotional distress.” VCU News summarizes key findings: <blockquote>Woolf said he and his team suspect that some of these were indirect deaths from the pandemic that occurred among people with acute emergencies, such as a heart attack or stroke, who may have been afraid to go to a hospital for fear of getting the virus. Those who did seek emergency care, particularly in the areas hardest hit by the virus, may not have been able to get the treatment they needed, such as ventilator support, if the hospital was overwhelmed by the surge. … “We can’t forget about mental health,” Woolf said. “A number of people struggling with depression, addiction and very difficult economic conditions caused by lockdowns may have become increasingly desperate, and some may have died by suicide. People addicted to opioids and other drugs may have overdosed. All told, what we’re seeing is a death count well beyond what we would normally expect for this time of year, and it’s only partially explained by COVID-19.”</blockquote> Added Dr. David Lanning, interim chief medical officer at VCU Medical Center: <div class='code-block code-block-1' style='margin: 8px 0; clear: both;'> <div id="ld-7288-8825"></div><script>(function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:19200391255058844,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-7288-8825"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");</script></div> <blockquote>There’s no question that many people avoided hospital care, preventive care, out-patient care, any contact with any healthcare facility, and sometimes even their healthcare provider because of fear of COVID. And that had disastrous consequences in that people didn’t get the acute care they needed, and didn’t get a lot of preventive care.</blockquote> These charts show the spike in excess deaths attributed to major killers like heart disease, diabetes, cerebrovascular disease, and Alzheimer’s disease. <figure id="attachment_60348" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-60348" style="width: 742px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><a href="https://www.baconsrebellion.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/excess_deaths.png"><img decoding="async" class="wp-image-60348 size-full" src="https://www.baconsrebellion.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/excess_deaths.png" alt="" width="742" height="678" srcset="https://www.baconsrebellion.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/excess_deaths.png 742w, https://www.baconsrebellion.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/excess_deaths-300x274.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 742px) 100vw, 742px" /></a><figcaption id="caption-attachment-60348" class="wp-caption-text">Image credit: JAMA Network</figcaption></figure> You can read a summary of the study and its methodology <a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2768086?guestAccessKey=4ac471b2-bea0-4292-8625-f99d49a9eb08&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=070120">here</a>. Bacon’s bottom line: Neither Woolf nor Lanning discussed the politically sensitive issue of why so many people were so terrified of the COVID-19 that they failed to seek treatment for their ailments. One might mention the mandated shutdown of all “elective” procedures ordered by many governors, including Ralph Northam here in Virginia. One might also observe that nonstop media coverage bordering on the hysterical also fueled fears of a deadly, out-of-control disease. Whatever the reasons for the failure of thousands of patients to seek treatment for non-COVID illnesses, this study represents the first serious effort to document the number of “excess” deaths. The study drives home a point made many times by multiple authors on this blog: The cost of the emergency shutdown cannot be measured by lost jobs and lost economic activity alone — it must be measured by deaths not counted in the daily COVID-19 death county. For every two people who died from the virus, by the VCU study’s reckoning, one has died from spillover effects of the epidemic. The media’s monomaniacal focus on the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and even COVID-19 deaths has contributed to the death of tens of thousands. Don’t expect the mainstream media to acknowledge its complicity in this catastrophe, though. Being a member of the hit-and-run media means never having to say you’re sorry.

COVID-19 James A. Bacon

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16 responses to “VCU Study Finds 30,000 “Spillover” Deaths from COVID-19 Epidemic”

Reed Fawell 3rd

July 13, 2020

Likely the number is far higher, given the enormous toll taken on people during and by reason of the shutdown. Many of these casualties will never never be known, and/or will be manifest in the future, including the far distant future.

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LarrytheG

July 13, 2020

I suppose there are differing views about this but one of the main reasons people do not seek health care is they do not have health insurance and/or have lost their job.

I’m not agreeing with the idea the media did this. For one thing – this study was for March/April but for another – there are more media than the MSM and in fact other media has promoted the idea that COVID19 is a hoax and only kills older people.

So we demanded that we “open up” – and look at what has happened. All those folks in Bars and the beaches etc… they were not freaked out from the media, right?

If the big bad MSM is so bad – then what explains all these folks who refuse to wear masks and hang out in bars…. etc.??

I guess only the ones that got freaked out by the MSG really died, eh?

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UpAgnstTheWall

July 13, 2020

Ah, the old mental health ploy. A sure sign that we’re dealing with snowflakes…
-James Bacon, less than twelve hours ago

It’s not the hypocrisy that gets me, it’s the velocity.

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Peter Galuszka

July 13, 2020

The big bad media? How about the big bad xenophobic, racist,sexist, sick president .Trump? Does not excited st in Bacon World

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1. James A. Bacon
  
  July 13, 2020
  
  Please, Peter, go ahead and make the case that Trump has preyed on peoples’ fears by magnifying the dangers of COVID-19. I’d like to see you make that argument. Perhaps I’m missing something.
  
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2. James Wyatt Whitehead V
  
  July 14, 2020
  
  I heard E.W. Jackson on the radio today. He claims that 30% of the black vote nationwide will go for Trump. If that is true a second term is a lock.
  
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  1. Steve Haner
    
    July 14, 2020
    
    He thought he’d be Light Governor, too…..didn’t happen.
    
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    1. James Wyatt Whitehead V
      
      July 14, 2020
      
      Jackson lost to Northam! Still he did gather nearly a million votes. I like his radio show. When I am driving south I can usually find his show broadcasting in the Richmond/Petersburg area.
      
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  2. TooManyTaxes
    
    July 14, 2020
    
    I saw a poll where Kanye West is polling 2% nationally. He isn’t Trump and he’s not deep in to dementia like Biden is.
    
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LarrytheG

July 13, 2020

Apparently only the dumbass progressives get freaked out by the MSM, the ones who won’t wear masks, etc… doesn’t bother them a bit or maybe if they get the virus it scares the bejesus out of them and they just hide under their beds til they expire…

Anyhow, no matter how you cut it – it’s progressives and the MSM fault.

😉

This whole mess is their fault. Right?

I wonder if it works this way in other countries… Do they also have MSM that freaks out people?

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TBill

July 13, 2020

“People who never had the virus may have died from other causes because of the spillover effects of the pandemic, such as delayed medical care, economic hardship or emotional distress.”

One thing Virginia did right is hindsight was not closing the ABC stores. In Pennsylvania they did close down the booze stores, and serious alcohol withdrawal effects are certainly possible. Not me but someone I know. So yes, stress in many forms. How about the auto speeders and crashes?

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LarrytheG

July 13, 2020

Is this an America-only thing or is it happening in other countries also?

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cjbova

July 13, 2020

A friend in California told me last night about someone she knows who was scheduled for a quadruple bypass, but they wouldn’t admit him for surgery until they got the COVID test results. It took 12 days. Fortunately, the results were negative and he got the surgery. Makes me wonder how many others haven’t survived such waits.

And then, stress has real health effects. I looked at the Dartmouth Life Change Index to see how many items might be related to COVID. (this is not the full list) I think it would be pretty easy to get to 150 for a lot of people, and anyone with a direct COVID connection or loss, it could go a lot higher.

Life Change Units — Likelihood Of Illness In Near Future
300+ about 80 percent
150-299 about 50 percent
less than 150 about 30 percent

Death of Spouse 100
Death of Close Family Member 63
Personal injury or illness 53
Change in health of family member 44
Business readjustment 39
Change in financial state 38
Death of close friend 37
Change to a different line of work 36
Change in responsibilities at work 29
Spouse begins or stops work 29
Begin or end school 26
Change in living conditions 25
Revisions of personal habits 24
Change in work hours or conditions 20
Change in schools 20
Change in recreations 19
Change in church activities 19
Change in social activities 19
Change in sleeping habits 16
Change in number of family get together 15
Change in eating habits 15

https://www.dartmouth.edu/eap/library/lifechangestresstest.pdf

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1. LarrytheG
  
  July 13, 2020
  
  12 days – that’s a pretty big gap … one assumes they isolated but that’s enough time for contacts to happen.
  
  why is it taking 12 days to get a test when we’re told we’re doing too much testing?
  
  I’ve seen that stress index and I believe it… even before COVID19 !
  
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Nancy_Naive

July 14, 2020

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y6h8TIxeg1g

What’s going on postmodern.

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MAdams

July 14, 2020

Those who perished as a result are what is known as unintended consequences.

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