The Great Realignment, Best-State-for-Business Reprise, Housing Drags, and Youngkin Popularity

by Chris Saxman

If you read one article this week make it this one from Axios – The Democratic electorate’s seismic shift. Just about every presentation I have given over the last 6 or 7 years begins with a statement or slide that says we are living in a historic political realignment and it’s global. From the article:

Democrats now have a bigger advantage among white college graduates than they do with nonwhite voters, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll.

Why it matters: We’re seeing a political realignment in real time.

Democrats are becoming the party of upscale voters concerned more about issues like gun control and abortion rights.

Republicans are quietly building a multiracial coalition of working-class voters, with inflation as an accelerant.

  1. Briefly returning to last week’s rant about CNBC’s Top States for Business in which Virginia was ranked #3 and the State of Washington was ranked #2 overall. Chief Executive magazine, on the other hand, has Virginia #14 and Washington #46. How can a state in one ranking be #2 and #46 in another? The answer is in who is polled. We’ve discussed this before – there is a difference in polling and modeling. CNBC polls state economic development professionals (sales) and Chief Executive asks 650+ business executives (deciders) what state is the best for business. Final rankings in 2021/22 College Football? Alabama at #2 while Mississippi State is at #46.
  2. Top Ten CNBC states? North Carolina – Washington – Virginia – Colorado – Texas – Tennessee – Nebraska – Utah – Minnesota – Georgia. Top Ten per Chief Executive? Texas – Florida – Tennessee – Arizona – North Carolina – Indiana – Nevada – South Dakota – Utah. What’s #1 state for business ? Usually the one where most of your customers are.
  3. One drag on Virginia’s economy is housing costs. Look at the dramatic changes in just six years. Good article from VPM. Great graphic makes the point.

Morning Consult has a very cool article with their polling of all 50 governors. Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin is 18 points above water 53-35 approve vs. disapprove. Small wonder he is being considered for the national GOP ticket in 2024. Good Axios column here – Youngkin presidential buzz grows louder. With Youngkin’s resources and network, he can put together a credible political operation overseen by top pros in the business while he governs the Commonwealth.

That’s pretty much what the private equity business model is based on. Work on one turnaround and invest in another one with appropriate due diligence managed to specific goals with a LOT of data for decision making. Today’s technology allows politicians to be in many places at the same time — social media, cable news, Zoom, Microsoft Teams, Google Meet.

This column has been republished with permission from The Intersection.