The Great Realignment, Best-State-for-Business Reprise, Housing Drags, and Youngkin Popularity

by Chris Saxman

If you read one article this week make it this one from Axios – The Democratic electorate’s seismic shift. Just about every presentation I have given over the last 6 or 7 years begins with a statement or slide that says we are living in a historic political realignment and it’s global. From the article:

Democrats now have a bigger advantage among white college graduates than they do with nonwhite voters, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll.

Why it matters: We’re seeing a political realignment in real time.

Democrats are becoming the party of upscale voters concerned more about issues like gun control and abortion rights.

Republicans are quietly building a multiracial coalition of working-class voters, with inflation as an accelerant.

  1. Briefly returning to last week’s rant about CNBC’s Top States for Business in which Virginia was ranked #3 and the State of Washington was ranked #2 overall. Chief Executive magazine, on the other hand, has Virginia #14 and Washington #46. How can a state in one ranking be #2 and #46 in another? The answer is in who is polled. We’ve discussed this before – there is a difference in polling and modeling. CNBC polls state economic development professionals (sales) and Chief Executive asks 650+ business executives (deciders) what state is the best for business. Final rankings in 2021/22 College Football? Alabama at #2 while Mississippi State is at #46.
  2. Top Ten CNBC states? North Carolina – Washington – Virginia – Colorado – Texas – Tennessee – Nebraska – Utah – Minnesota – Georgia. Top Ten per Chief Executive? Texas – Florida – Tennessee – Arizona – North Carolina – Indiana – Nevada – South Dakota – Utah. What’s #1 state for business ? Usually the one where most of your customers are.
  3. One drag on Virginia’s economy is housing costs. Look at the dramatic changes in just six years. Good article from VPM. Great graphic makes the point.

Morning Consult has a very cool article with their polling of all 50 governors.

Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin is 18 points above water 53-35 approve vs. disapprove. Small wonder he is being considered for the national GOP ticket in 2024. Good Axios column here – Youngkin presidential buzz grows louder. With Youngkin’s resources and network, he can put together a credible political operation overseen by top pros in the business while he governs the Commonwealth.

That’s pretty much what the private equity business model is based on. Work on one turnaround and invest in another one with appropriate due diligence managed to specific goals with a LOT of data for decision making. Today’s technology allows politicians to be in many places at the same time — social media, cable news, Zoom, Microsoft Teams, Google Meet.

This column has been republished with permission from The Intersection.

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14 responses to “The Great Realignment, Best-State-for-Business Reprise, Housing Drags, and Youngkin Popularity”

  1. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    Youngkin?! Dang! And I wasted tergiversator on the Richmond mayor. Would have gotten a triple word score on da gubna.

    1. WayneS Avatar

      Sorry, you only get to use tergiversator once a day. Maybe tomorrow?

    2. Stephen Haner Avatar
      Stephen Haner

      A real William F. Buckley moment for you. Enjoy.

      Youngkin on a national ticket in ’24. I will set aside my deep irritation that he is so distracted from his real job (which he is), and ask, is there any chance he could move Virginia into the GOP column with its electoral votes? And if not, why even discuss it? What say ye, Saxman? I say no. (Wouldn’t Saxman be a great handle for a fighter jock?)

      1. DJRippert Avatar

        “Wouldn’t Saxman be a great handle for a fighter jock?”

        Or, a musician.

        1. WayneS Avatar

          Or a Viking.

        2. Nancy Naive Avatar
          Nancy Naive

          Oh, so no drummers?

          Ms. Saxman for a video game?

      2. Nancy Naive Avatar
        Nancy Naive

        Or a trumpeter.

  2. LarrytheG Avatar

    The big hurt on those housing costs is the mortgage rates when you go from 2.94% to 5.81%.

    400K @ 2.94 = $1673 monthly
    400K@ 5.81 = $2350 monthly

    so let’s call this Saxmans claim about housing costs
    as Saxmans Super Silly Stuff.

    1. Stephen Haner Avatar
      Stephen Haner

      Well, no, because it is both the interest rate AND the price he is talking about. But they are national trends so may not hit VA worse than any other state. So the question is, are median prices rising faster in VA?

      1. LarrytheG Avatar

        Yes, but the year over year of housing price increases pales in comparison to a doubling of the mortgage rates.

        Think about the price of a house a year ago – pick one 200k, 300K, etc and how much it cost a month and the same house this year.

        The escalating price of houses is gonna get “fixed” pretty good if mortgage rates double. It may take a few months or so…

        Now all we need is a return to the sub-prime mortgages to “help”.

  3. WayneS Avatar

    here – Youngkin presidential buzz grows louder.

    Interesting. I thought that noise I’ve been hearing was cicadas…

    1. James Wyatt Whitehead Avatar
      James Wyatt Whitehead

      “Work on one turnaround and invest in another one” Looks like a good way to turn off voters like me. After he becomes president he can run for geezus next.

  4. energyNOW_Fan Avatar

    Does everyone agree with the premise? (Dems = elite white party)

    I say Hogan/Youngkin or is it a Youngkin/Hogan ticket?

    1. LarrytheG Avatar

      I think it sounds like:

      “We’re the no-Trump/no-DeSantis” guys.

      tough gig.

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