• Escape from Orlando

    Wow, it’s been a crazy week. Let me tell you, Disney World is not for old people — well, it’s not for old people acclimated to an auto-centric society where little walking is required. In Disney World, you do a lot of walking. You also find yourself hurtling along in roller coasters and other devices at high speeds, often experiencing multiple G forces.

    I prefer more contemplative get-aways that give me a chance to read and relax. My wife likes cramming in as many experiences as she possibly can. At Disney World, it wasn’t a contest. My wife won. The Bacon family ran itself ragged 12 hours a day, then collapsed in the hotel room long enough to re-charge batteries and hit the rides again. Fun — but exhausting.

    We’re back in Richmond now, and I’ve plowed through the 1,400 emails in my in-box. (More than half of it was spam; most of the rest was commentary by you, dear readers). Now I’m ready to belly up to the PC and get back to the business of writing about the real world, which is a lot more interesting than the ersatz, Disneyfied world.

    Just a few comments before I plunge ahead.

    First, for the record, I found Epcot and Animal Kingdom to be the most enjoyable parts of Disney World. In particular, I was intrigued by the Epcot greenhouse, where a slow boat ride takes you on a tour past a remarkable array of fruit trees and vegetables grown under hydroponic conditions. I know, I’m such a dweeb. To my fellow dweebs, I highly recommend it. Alas, I missed the “Behind the Seeds” tour for a more in-depth look. But I suspect that greenhouses and hydroponics will play a role in the sustainable, energy-efficient agriculture of the future.

    Second, I want to thank Ed Risse for keeping the blog alive in my absence. Good job, Ed, you certainly managed to keep the pot boiling!

    (Image credit: Gardenvisit.com)


  • Kaine Defends His Record on Transportation/Land Use

    An interesting sidelight of Gov. Timothy M. Kaine’s press release announcing the Sub-Cabinet on Community Investment is a defense of his track record on transportation and land use issues. I have broken out that passage from my previous post in order to give it more emphasis here.

    Over the last two years, the press release stated, Kaine has worked with the General Assembly to improve coordination between land use and transportation planning, including:

    • A standardized process for traffic impact analyses for new developments
    • Stricter connectivity standards for subdivision streets
    • Improved traffic flow through access management standards
    • Designation of urban development areas
    • Expanded ability to issue road impact fees
    • Local administration of construction projects

    Some of these initiatives originated from Kaine’s policy shop, and some of them from the Republicans. Regardless of whose ideas they originally were, Kaine embraced them at some point and was instrumental in passing them into law.

    I’ve been pretty tough on Kaine for his tax proposals to boost transportation funding and falling short on campaign promises. But the fact remains, he has done more to elevate the critical link between transportation and land use than any governor in Virginia history.


  • APTERA AND THE TIGER RIDERS

    We saw Jim Baconโ€™s 4 June post on the Aptera concept car (โ€œ300 MPG. This could be the Coolest Car Ever?โ€) just before we left on a 22 mile chained trip to accomplish seven errands that could not be done here in Greater Warrenton Fauquier. (For those who came in late, since 1973 we have primarily worked very near where we lived and have tried to minimize our travel except where there is no alternative.)

    We stated our view of Aptera in a comment when the vehicle was called to our attention via a comment following the 2 June post โ€œTremble, Mortals, the Rebellion is Unleashed.โ€

    Tiny cars are old, old news. Folks have been designing little vehicles that go for miles with not much fuel for decades.

    Mini cars can be part of a solution to Access and Mobility. We helped design Planned New Communities around mini-vehicles over three decades ago. They can work well in some existing urban environments but it is not a slam dunk. It takes a design / redesign of the settlement pattern and the transport infrastructure at the Alpha Village and Alpha Community scale as well as the design of the vehicle to achieve a real alternative to Large, Private Vehicles in most environments.

    Jim was so excited about the Aptera in his 4 June post that the little three wheeler and its ilk were on our mind as we carried out our journey. This was not a โ€œroad tripโ€ and we took the least traveled routes that got us to a series of destinations in a reasonable time frame. The trip did not take us on I-66, the most heavily traveled road we used was US Route 29.

    In spite of this, in our travels we encountered two 18-wheel flatbeds owned by a company in Alabama hauling very heavy loads. One driver knew where he was going and apparently was running late, the other driver did know where he was going and was trying to keep up โ€“ ran some yellow / red lights, etc. The Alabama trucks were hauling just the sort of loads that should be on a railroad, not cutting off drivers in vehicles weighing one twentieth as much. At least we were visible and had good visibility from our vehicle.

    Then there were several landscaperโ€™s trucks with big trailers full of parked (not secured) mowers and no brakes who were late for their next mowing job. There was an Escalade driver who did not want to be passed by a VW beetle and two Lexus drivers who wanted to get in front of the school bus before it made its next stop (more red lights) and then … You get the idea, it was a normal day on the roadways.

    No person in their right mind would drive an Aptera under these conditions and we were just running errands. One of the reasons I sold my first sports car, among others, was that I watched what happened to an MG-midget that was unseen by the driver of a semi when the truck changed lanes. An Aptera would fit nicely under the bed of, and then under the wheels of, one of those Alabama flatbeds…

    An Aptera would look like burner cover after being hit even by the VW Beetle. Driving a vehicle that rides low to the ground at 30, 40, 50 or 60 mph among other vehicles that weigh up to 30 times as much would be a form of insanity. Even the far more substantial Smart car profiled in THE PROBLEM WITH CARS would be โ€œuncomfortable.โ€

    A few days later (6 June 2008) CNN ran a story โ€œSUV owners keep on truckinโ€™ despite gas prices.โ€ You can guess why. The disaggregated lives of the owners lead them to believe that they have no alternative but to use these vehicles. And now Chrysler will guarantee they do not need to worry about gas prices if they buy a new Chrysler built SUV.

    Perhaps you would like to get a hybrid? On the 9th US News had a story titled โ€œIs a Hybrid Worth it.โ€ For the most part the answer is no from a return-on-investment perspective. The vast majority of the current rash of hybrids are just Green Greed โ€“ by companies that make them โ€“ and Green Fog by those who buy them.

    What is the bottom line here?

    The US of A has evolved:

    A settlement pattern,

    A transport system to serve that settlement pattern, and

    A system of providing Large Private Vehicles to drive on that system.

    Collectively, these three realities make incremental โ€œimprovementsโ€ in Mobility and Access

    Unwise for those at the top of the economic Ziggurat, and

    Impossible for the majority who are not at the top.

    What does this say about Fundamental Transformation (formerly Fundamental Change) in human settlement patterns and Fundamental Transformations in governance structure to achieve functional settlement patterns?

    It says that until the majority of citizens understand the need for those Fundamental Transformations they will not happen,

    And further, all the discussion of โ€œsolutions,โ€ not just by the Tiger Riders but by well-intended incrementalists (โ€œwe-have-to-start-somewhereโ€ / โ€œthat-is-all-we-can-sell-politicallyโ€ / โ€œthis-is-a-step-in-the-right-directionโ€) only puts off the day when there is informed consensus of the need for Transformation / Change.

    Drive safely and have a good weekend.

    EMR

    PS: Jim said he would be traveling Saturday and it would be good to put up something. I hope he had a safe drive up from Greater Orlando, he was not in an Aptera.


  • Kaine Establishes Sub-Cabinet on Community Investment

    Gov. Timothy M. Kaine has issued an executive order establishing a Sub-Cabinet on Community Investment tasked with the goal of promoting “smart, sustainable growth” by ensuring that state funds are invested in projects that reduce “suburban sprawl.”

    “Virginia loses 165 acres every day to development, and while we welcome growth and economic success, it is paramount that we grow in a wise and sustainable way with an eye towards conservation,” said Kaine in a press release. “The Sub-Cabinet on Community Investment will prioritize the state’s investments to make sure we protect Virginia’s precious natural resources for present use and future needs.”

    The Sub-Cabinet’s will destribute grants, loans, matching funds and other discretionary funds to “incentivize desirable growth.” The press release identified the following principles:

    • Invest in innovation
    • Invest in the use of existing infrastructure
    • Invest in compact development
    • Protect and restore Virginia’s natural resources
    • Conserve Virginia’s limited natural resources
    • Invest in diverse housing opportunities
    • Invest in alternative transportation choices
    • Take a long-term view to planning.

    “The Commonwealth will seek to invest in projects that promote compact development, consume less land, conserve open space, and minimize the negative social, economic, and environmental consequences of sprawl,” stated the press release.

    The Executive Order is an outgrowth of an internal policy summit, facilitated by the Governor’s Institute on Community Design, which recommended policies for sustainable growth and open space preservation in the Commonwealth. The Institute is chaired by former Maryland Governor Parris Glendening.

    “States that have been successful in protecting their natural resources, developing vibrant communities and improving mobility for their citizens have done so by encouraging cross-departmental collaboration,” said Governor Glendening. “The array of issues states face in addressing the impacts of growth and development demand such coordination and I commend Governor Kaine for taking this important step.”

    The Sub-Cabinet will be chaired by Secretary of Natural Resources L. Preston Bryant, and consist of Secretary of Administration Viola O. Baskerville, Secretary of Commerce and Trade Patrick O. Gottschalk, Secretary of Finance Jody M. Wagner, and Secretary of Transportation Pierce R. Homer.

    Bacon’s bottom line: This sounds like a positive step in the right direction, although the devil is always in the details. One thing that appears to be missing from the list of state “tools” for discouraging sprawl is transportation funding. I haven’t had a chance to read the Executive Order yet, so I shall refrain from further comment.


  • THE INELASTIC PERSPECTIVE OF THE TIGER RIDERS

    Adam Smith is smiling.

    He never did like Tiger Riders, always believed in that invisible hand.

    Since 1973 โ€“ when I started paying careful attention (and when our Household made decisions to cut non-renewable energy consumption at the Household scale) โ€“ every time there has been a jump in fuel prices or lines at the gas stations citizens have changed their habits.

    This time is no exception. Yesterdayโ€™s headline at the top of WaPo Page 1 reads: โ€œAt $4 a Gallon, Rethinking Carsโ€™ Reign.โ€ In a CNN poll, most expect fuel shortages. โ€œ$5 a gallon by Fallโ€ is the word on the street and Congress just gave speculators a green light.

    Over the same 35 years, every time some one suggests that:

    โ€ข Industrialized nation-states have to rethink dependence on Large, Private Vehicles for Mobility and Access there has been a chant about Americans loving Autonomobiles, or

    โ€ข A fair allocation of the cost of location-variable goods and services, the Tiger Riders talk about the inelasticity of gasoline prices, the prospect of cheap alternative fuels and unending supplies inexpensive energy.

    These smokescreens are just part much larger and more important deceptions related to the trajectory of civilization.

    In December of 2006 we suggested there was a need for โ€œA New Metric for Citizen Well Beingโ€ (db4.dev.baconsrebellion.com) to replace consumption and growth.

    In March of this year we suggested, for the reasons spelled out in THE ESTATES MATRIX, that MainStream Media was obscuring the need to abandon Mass OverConsumption and Business As Usual in order to preserve โ€“ for the time being โ€“ its revenue stream. โ€œGood New, Bad Reportingโ€ 24 March 2008.

    Todayโ€™s WaPo headline is โ€œMcCain, Obama Clash over Economy.โ€ One has an 80s solution, the other a 90s solution.

    Here are some tentative targets for crafting a realistic economic survival plan. There is no guarantee that this level of conservative action will change the trajectory enough but they will help and they are within limits that most citizens would embrace if they understood the enormity of the consequences of Business As Usual:

    One percent annual decline in Gross Domestic Product

    Three percent annual decline in Consumer Consumption

    Five percent annual decline in Total Energy Consumption

    Ten percent annual decline in Energy Imports

    After a decade on this new consumption trajectory it should be possible to anticipate a one percent annual drop in total population. Both per capita consumption and total population declines are necessary.

    The role of functional human settlement patterns will be critical in achieving these goals. Functional human settlement patterns are the only strategy that can achieve this level of conservation without destroying the Quality of Life for the majority of citizens.

    In fact Lewenz argues that changes in human settlement patterns that would achieve these goals at the Village scale would improve Quality of Life. We agree.

    In this discussion, we are talking about Quality of Life from the perspective of 75 percent of the economic and social Ziggurat. See THE ESTATES MATRIX.

    EMR


  • GROVETON AND THE TIGER RIDERS

    In the comments section following WHAT ARE THEY THINKING Groveton gives the League of Tiger Riders some things to think about. In this post we have taken several of Grovetonโ€™s key observations and re-sequenced them to put the Tiger Rider issue in the spotlight.

    Lets start with Groveton saying:

    โ€œI agree with EMR about the wealth gap and the inevitable consequences of that gap.โ€

    The Wealth Gap may not be the most obvious front burner driver of society dysfunction but failure to address it NOW may make all the other problems and their solutions moot.

    The Tiger Riders who want to stimulate Supercapitalism took down the sign that read: โ€œWelcome to those who want to join us and make a great nation-state.โ€

    In its place they put up two signs:

    One sign says: โ€œCome here and get filthy rich, no commitment to hard work or citizen participation required.โ€

    The other sign reads: โ€œWe have given up the whole idea of hard work and real creativity. We are into entertainment, consumption and speculation. If you want to work hard doing what you will never see anyone doing on TV you can be better off here than you can where you live now.โ€ (And by the way we are leaving the back door unlocked so you can sneak in…)

    When โ€œThe Shape of the Futureโ€ was written, population was headed towards stability with the long term prospect of slowly decreasing. Those two signs drafted in the 80s and erected in the 90s changed that big time.

    Those at the bottom of the Ziggurat who do not know any way to get ahead but to work hard came in droves via the front door and the back door.

    Those who had special skills or capital to invest also came in droves. (A lot of that capital came from selling oil and junk to US of A consumers.)

    Those who are smart enough to have skills and capital recognize that US of A is like an athlete who has been too long on steroids โ€“ cheap energy. They are smart and want to be able to bail when things turn south.

    Here Groveton adds an important observation about which I was not previously aware:

    โ€œFor example, there is a trend among Americans of European extraction to apply for dual citizenship with the European country of their heritage. Of course, as a citizen in any EU country you can live in any other EU country.โ€

    Keep your options open!

    Groveton goes on: โ€œAmerica is aging. That’s a demographic fact.โ€

    A caveat: The percentage of those who are over X is going up but there are a lot of young immigrants and even more children of immigrants โ€“ especially children of illegals who want to have children born in the US of A.

    Back to Groveton: โ€œHowever, the wealth is aging faster and this is a bigger issue. If you look at the percentage of national wealth held by Americans of different age levels – the older are getting richer relative to the younger over time.โ€

    Very true. The children of โ€œthe greatest generationโ€ are stealing from their children and grandchildren for reasons we spell out in โ€œThe Shape of the Future.โ€ Former Interior Secretary Stewart Udall and his wife wrote a powerful apology to their grandchildren on this topic. It is worth a read โ€“ look it up in the 31 March High Country News.

    Groveton observes: โ€œThe biggest socioeconomic change is the shift in wealth to the elderly (or relatively elderly). The elderly retire, they stop getting salaries, they have more flexibility as to where (and how) they live.โ€

    Caveat: With the current downturn and hemorrhaging of retirement funds a lot of the older folks will be working a lot longer. Since one of the few real benefits of technology over the past three decades is that those at the top of the Ziggurat are living longer and are healthier, they can work longer too.

    Groveton says: โ€œBottom line – it’s not the Top 5%ers vs. the RHTCs. It is the Americans aged 20 – 40 vs. Americans aged 41 – 60.

    Caveat: It is not either / or it is both / and. Recall all those โ€œAOL millionairesโ€ and all those who coasted through college and got the big bucks right out of school.

    Here comes the key input from Groveton: โ€œAnd the capital owned by those in retirement or close to retirement is mobile. So, first you have a wide wealth gap.โ€

    โ€œThen, 51% of the population elects a demigod. Then, the elderly wealthy move their capital (and, perhaps, themselves) to countries that don’t have a demigod as president / prime minister.โ€

    โ€œThen, the US of A is done.โ€

    A very powerful argument for โ€œminding the gapโ€ โ€“ as they say in London โ€“ and for why we harp on the Wealth Gap issue.

    One more caveat on this topic: Elderly and Mobile โ€“ especially those who have spent their lives relying on the Autonomobile for Mobility and Access โ€“ do not go together.

    Some will move money off shore but those are in the top 5% and they rely on โ€˜money managers.โ€™
    As we will note in a review of โ€œHow to Build a Villageโ€ this demographic may be a key market for a Lewenz / Parallel Village.

    Groveton asks: โ€œTell me where I am wrong here.โ€

    Not at all โ€œwrong,โ€ just some caveats.

    Lets go on to another prediction of Grovetonโ€™s:

    โ€œI predict that the question of proposing a new constitutional convention will begin to be asked of candidates to the state legislature in many states.โ€

    Darrell — Chesapeake says it would not do any good because the Elephant Clan and the Donkey Clan would control the process. Right on Darrell.

    That is why humans have to think of Fundamental Transformation in governance structure if citizens are preserve democracies with market economies.

    What kind of Fundamental Transformations? Well, just the sort the founding fathers said would be needed: Changes to match changed conditions.

    The first one? Evolve the governance so that it is congruent with the organic components of human settlement pattern.

    Finally Groveton says: โ€œI wonder about human settlement patterns being a big part of the solution.โ€

    Groveton you need to give serious thought to the economic, social and physical impact of human settlement pattern โ€“ there is a book on the topic….

    Groveton goes on to suggest that โ€œBeyond that, I believe the wealth gap needs to be solved long before a more rational settlement plan can be implemented.โ€

    Grave settlement pattern Myth: It will take a long time to change human settlement patterns. More on that in THE USE AND MANAGEMENT OF LAND

    But will citizens change human settlement patterns with backhoes?

    Later on in the comments Larry Gross says:

    โ€œNo one.. I repeat no one is going to get rid of backhoes and go back to men with shovels even if fuel toes to $10 a gallon.โ€

    Since we have far more land devoted to urban land uses than there is a potential market at sustainable patterns and densities, most of the โ€œdevelopmentโ€ will be REDEVELOPMENT.

    There will be a need for some backhoes but more shovels for two reasons:

    First, the best way to solve the Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis is with large doses of sweat equity.

    Second, vast amounts of energy has been wasted on backhoes because of cheap energy.

    When I was managing the development of community infrastructure I would often observe the following:

    Three able bodied men (this was a while ago) would observe an unanticipated problem in laying a pipe, building a road or installing a storm or sanitary sewer.

    They would discuss the problem for a while and then radio the office (this was a while ago >:) and the office would dispatch a lowboy with a bigger backhoe.

    After hours of waiting and driving and unloading / loading and minutes of digging the problem was solved.

    It could have been done by those three in an hour with shovels and the equipment they already had on the job.

    Recall that second sign by the Supercapitalists about not wanting to do the work any more? $10 fuel will change that.

    We will deal with inelasticity again soon.

    EMR


  • Family Vacation: Disney World

    We have finally gotten Internet service restored to our condo here in Orlando, so I can drop in from afar and observe how the Rebellion is faring. Thanks to EMR for keeping the blog alive — and especially for giving Pat McSweeney’s legal victory the attention it was due.

    Although the overt purpose of the Bacon family trip to Disney World is to ride a bunch of hurl-inducing rides, listen to live performances of Disney tunes we’ve already heard a zillion times, engorge ourselves on fried food and open up our pockets to giant vacuum cleaners calibrated to suck out every dollar bill, dime, nickel and penny, my secret agenda is to study human settlement patterns.

    Here’s my verdict: Orlando is a mess. If you ever visit Disney, stay on the Disney property. You do not want to contend with Florida-style dysfunctional human settlement patterns. Frankly, I have seen little edifying enough here in Orlando to write about.

    But the good news is, we stopped in Savannah, Ga., on the way down — and Savannah is an urban jewel. I will have a lot to say about Savannah later on.

    Indeed, if we ever head down this way again, I am determined to stay in Savannah and let the rest of the family down drive down to Orlando without me. As long as my wife can tune into National Public Radio and the kids have movies to watch, no one will even notice I’m not in the car. Somewhere around St. Augustine, someone will go, “Hey, what happened to Dad? Who’s going to pump the gas?” But it will be too late. I’ll be strolling around the city that inspired “Midnight in the Garden of Good and Evil.”

    Mwa-ha-ha!


  • MORE NON-THINKING

    Following the “WHAT ARE THEY THINKING” post At 11:58 AM, Groveton commented…

    “The problems currently facing the United States will, sometime within in the next 20 years, precipitate a crisis.

    Today’s WaPo has a story by David Hilzenrath under the headline “Mortgages With No Money Down Still Available: Fannie, Freddie Programs Fly in Face of Foreclosures.”

    I would say sooner rather than later Groveton.

    Groveton also asked:

    “So, what differentiates a crisis from a national calamity? The willingness and ability to change.”

    Too many are in the League of Tiger Riders to admit the need to change.

    Further, Tiger Riders expect that if they fail that they will get a Bear S. bailout.

    More on Grovetons several contributions to the WHAT ARE THEY THINKING post soon.

    EMR


  • CONGRATS PAT McS

    The WaPo headline says it all:

    “Va. High Court Revives Dulles Toll Road Suit: Proposed Metro Extension Hits Another Snag”

    Well actually the headline writer is not a lawyer. What happened is that the Supreme Court of Virginia refused to grant a request by the toll transfer proponents to have the suit thrown out. Same result.

    In any event, congratulations Patrick.

    Even if Jim Bacon has an upset stomach from too much sugar and scary rides, this will make him feel better.

    EMR


  • WHAT ARE THEY THINKING?

    While vast majority of the correspondence we receive is informative and supportive, on line we hear primarily from the League of Tiger Riders. Their activities were profiled in our last column โ€œRiding the Tiger.โ€

    One has to wonder: โ€œWhat are they thinking?โ€ On the other hand, it should not be surprising that we do not understand how โ€œNot Ed Risseโ€ and others think.

    In a 2 June 2008 post on BR Blog POLITICAL WISDOM AND CONVENTION NOTICE we note a Wilfred Owens quote:

    โ€œThere are no transport facility (or we always add, transport facility finance schemes) that will solve transport problem โ€“ there are only settlement pattern solutions.โ€

    We heard from โ€œNot Ed Risseโ€ at 5:39 PM, he commented:

    โ€œEd Risse’s ultimate nightmare is closer than he thinks.

    โ€œUnlimited, cheap, non-polluting fuel!

    โ€œWatch this video on TED.

    โ€œhttp://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/view/id/227

    “In early 2008, scientists at the J. Craig Venter Institute announced that they had manufactured the entire genome of a bacterium by painstakingly stitching together its chemical components. By sequencing a genome, scientists can begin to custom-design bootable organisms, creating biological robots that can produce from scratch chemicals humans can use, such as biofuel.

    โ€œHuman ingenuity and freedom will lead to unimaginable prosperity for everyone.โ€

    Lets go over this remarkable โ€œresponseโ€ item by item:

    โ€œEd Risse’s ultimate nightmare is closer than he thinks. Unlimited, cheap, non-polluting fuel!โ€

    No, E M Risseโ€™s ultimate nightmare is not there will be โ€œunlimited, cheap, non-polluting fuelโ€ his nightmare is that more than a small minority are foolish enough to believe that โ€œUnlimited, cheap, non-polluting fuelโ€ will make the world a better place in any way, much less preserve the potential of maintaining democracies with market economies.

    EMRโ€™s hope is that this minority stays below the 20 percent threshold per the 60 % / 20 % / 20% Rule. About the same percentage as believe that the Earth is flat would be fine.

    Not Ed Risse goes on:

    โ€œWatch this video on TED.

    โ€œhttp://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/view/id/227

    “In early 2008, scientists at the J. Craig Venter Institute announced that they had manufactured the entire genome of a bacterium by painstakingly stitching together its chemical components. By sequencing a genome, scientists can begin to custom-design bootable organisms, creating biological robots that can produce from scratch chemicals humans can use, such as biofuel.”

    Let us all agree that there a lot of smart folks with a lot of great ideas burning through billions in research dollars on what in The Shape of the Future we call โ€œfrontier science.โ€ “Frontier science” is the pursuit of arcane answers to cutting edge questions for which someone believes there is a big payoff โ€“ not necessarily a big benefit. Among them is Dr. Venterโ€™s team at JCVI.

    With respect to โ€œbootable organismsโ€ JCVI has another long, difficult step to achieve their goal.

    But if JCVI or someone else on the same track, does completed the quest, where will the feedstock to produce this biofuel come from?

    Who will pay for the processes that generates a new fuel?

    Who will control the processes?

    One thing for sure, the product will not be โ€œcheap.โ€ One might as well count on Brazilians selling its new found petrochemical resources at below market price.

    How about the Hydrogen economy? How about cheap nuclear power? Better yet just hope that Thomas Gold was right about spontaneous generation of hydrocarbons. Or perhaps cold fusion, you get the idea…

    Finally, โ€œNot Ed Risseโ€ says:

    โ€œHuman ingenuity and freedom will lead to unimaginable prosperity for everyone.โ€

    Lets look at both ends of this โ€œfreedom and unimaginable prosperity for everyoneโ€ pipe dream.

    On the front end, long ago, right here on Planet Earth humans had wonderful biological robots that did just what Dr. Venter would like these new ones to do. These servants of man spent tens of millions of years creating a cheap โ€“ and if intelligently used โ€“ non-polluting fuel. What happened?

    Humans have burned through most of the easy-to-access Natural Capital including the work of these microscopic petrochemical beavers in a little over a hundred years. To make matters worse โ€“ much worse โ€“ humans polluted the air, water and marine resources in the process.

    What is more, humans and their Organizations do not have the collective intelligence to conserve (as in to be โ€œconservativeโ€ about resource consumption) what is left of the petrochemical reserves for important products like pharmaceuticals and specialty materials. Instead humans, especially in the US of A are wasting it on needless to-ing and fro-ing to overcome dysfunctional settlement human patterns.

    Note: Human settlement patterns were made dysfunctional to meet the short-term interest of a few at the expense of the many and this in spite of what the market would support if citizens were offered a choice.

    On the other end of the โ€œfreedom and unimaginable prosperity for everyoneโ€ pipe dream:

    What has the last 35 years (since the 1973 Wake-Up Call that was ignored) of unprecedented wealth and consumption done for โ€œfreedom and unimaginable prosperity for everyone?โ€

    Well for starters the top five percent of the economic and social Ziggurat have gotten much richer but not much happier.

    The middle forty five percent are Running As Hard As They Cans (RHTCs). They have run up record setting debt and have been responsible for most of the resource burn. RHTCs are clearly not โ€œbetter offโ€ than their parents were in the 60s. Back then, one could pay for a year of college with a summers work fighting fires and clearing trails. One could buy a good car with a summers work in a grocery store.

    RHTCs own bigger-than-they-need houses, many in dysfunctional locations, and own dozens of โ€œmust haveโ€ gadgets. No single person on the cutting edge of โ€œprosperityโ€ knows how to use all the โ€œmodern technologyโ€ that they already own, much less all the new technology and other consumption items that MainStream Media advertising tells them they โ€œneed.โ€

    What is worse, these RHTCs are not better off โ€“ not better educated, not healthier, not longer living and not happier โ€“ than citizens in other First World nation-states that have spent half as much of that โ€œcheapโ€ fuel.

    And the bottom 50 percent of the economic and social Ziggurat?

    By some measures, some citizens are, thankfully, better off. But most are falling farther and farther behind. The Wealth Gap is widening at an alarming rate. The Quality of Life is eroding and the ladders to self improvement are rotting away.

    You may have noticed that citizens are demanding โ€œchange.โ€ If one understands what happens in democracies that create conditions of massive disparity it is clear that it will not be long before over 51 percent will vote for demigods who promise easy solutions. That will end the gravy train for all but those on the โ€œcentral committee.โ€

    Humans have not shown the ability to achieve โ€œfreedom and unimaginable prosperity for everyoneโ€ with the resources they have burned through since 1870. What would cause โ€œNot Ed Risse,โ€ or anyone else, to think they will do better with some new gift house, if one actually arrives?

    What are the members of the League of Tiger Riders thinking?

    What is even more scary is that everyday comes a new barrage of misinformation and emotionally loaded defenses of Business As Usual and the mantra of the Tiger Riders. (See the discussion of Institutions in THE ESTATES MATRIX.

    Have a nice weekend.

    EMR


  • Off to See the Mouse

    Well, Wonkish Ones, I am departing today on the uniquely American hajj — the mandatory, once-in-a-lifetime trip with a 10-year-old to Disney World. I will be gone all next week. I may or may not have wireless Internet access, so I don’t know if I’ll be able to stay in touch.

    But never fear, Ed Risse has promised two file a couple of posts, and Peter Galuszka has dangled the prospect of dropping a bombshell or two, time permitting. And, if you’re lucky, Norm Leahy will cross-post from Tertium Quids.

    If any of you read Ed’s column, “Learning from the Mouse,” on Bacon’s Rebellion, you’ll know he’s referring to Disney World. I suspect that I’ll be far more interested in Disney’s transportation solutions than its jungle rides. With luck, I’ll be able to gather enough notes to submit a coherent column when I return.


  • DONKEY SNARLS

    Do not expect much help on Mobility and Access from the presumptive Donkey Clan presidential nominee based on today’s action.

    Eric M. Weiss has the story in WaPo today: โ€œRoad Plus Rally Equals Snarlsโ€ Obama Event at (Nissan) Pavilion Promises Epic Back-Ups.โ€

    You would not expect Sen Obama himself to understand the self-inflicted Mobility and Access disaster caused by approval of Nissan Pavilion over a decade ago โ€“ but his handlers, staff and the host / promoters from the Commonwealth?

    The settlement pattern solution? Do not hold any event in the Pavilion.

    The Autonomobile industry image solution? Get out of the naming “rights.”

    The political image and turn a red state blue strategy? Do not hold this event in the Pavilion.

    EMR


  • Arcane Issues, Big Stakes

    The fracas over Virginia Commonwealth Universityโ€™s contracts with Philip Morris USA isnโ€™t going away. Anti-tobacco activists who track Philip Morrisโ€™ every move wonโ€™t let it. Blogs around the country have picked up on the front-page New York Times article that highlighted controversial restrictions on academic freedom contained in the agreements. Like it or not, VCU is in the national spotlight.

    The issues can sound arcane to outsiders, and itโ€™s easy to blow off the entire controversy as an academic tempest in a teacup. But the questions raised by the New York Times and by follow-up reporting locally (See “VCU and the Evil Weed“) cannot be ignored. The business community in particular has a stake in understanding just exactly what is going on.

    VCU is one of Richmondโ€™s most important institutions. It is an economic engine: not just for the thousands of local residents it educates, not just for the urban re-development that it has generated on all around its campus, but for the research it conducts, the intellectual property it creates and the Knowledge-Economy businesses that spin out of the university directly or the Virginia Biotechnology Research Park located nearby.

    VCU is Richmondโ€™s gateway into the burgeoning life sciences industry. In 2006, according to the National Science Foundation VCU accounted for $149 million in Research & Development expenditures in 2006 โ€“ most of it in life sciences — ranking it 104th among the 640 institutions of higher education tracked. Thatโ€™s up from $80 million in 1999. In a highly competitive environment VCU has gained a modest amount of ground compared to peer institutions. While R&D spending nationally increased 73.5 percent over that seven-year span nationally, VCU bolstered R&D expenditures by 87.1 percent.

    As important as the R&D expenditures, which are largely restricted to university labs, is the potential to convert the science into business opportunity. Thatโ€™s the role of the biotech park, which has built a cluster of life science tenants, including 44 private companies, four VCU research institutes, four state labs and five not-for-profit organizations. At long last, the 13-year-old biotech park is achieving national name recognition and critical mass. The park has incubated 63 companies (19 from VCU), of which 31 have graduated from the park. With the park on the radar of start-up financiers and venture capitalists, tenants have raised tens of millions of dollars in early phase financing in recent years. Three companies have gone public. Now, the park is assembling new capabilities to take technology created at VCU or in the park and commercialize it locally.

    Richmond is on the verge of breaking through from a third-tier center of life science entrepreneurship into a respectable second-tier city. But the goal of evolving the Richmond life sciences community to the next level hinges upon the credibility of VCU as a research institution.

    In that regard, the universityโ€™s close association with Philip Morris USA is a mixed blessing. On the one hand, Philip Morris aims to recruit world-class researchers to its $350 million research facility at the biotech park, and it is broadening its scope of R&D into areas that could potentially increase the understanding of health processes, particularly at the biochemical level, and lead to beneficial new products. On the other hand, Philip Morris bears the legacy as one of the most reviled corporations in America, with a reputation not only as a company that manufactures a product that kills people, but as a company that perverted science to evil ends.

    An argument can be made that the current leadership at Philip Morris is genuinely trying to put its tainted past behind it and conduct the company as a responsible corporate citizen. (See “Prospering in Adversity.”) That proposition is, to put it mildly, controversial. For legions of skeptics around the country, Philip Morris can no more escape its past than the German people could escape collective guilt for the Holocaust until the country had thoroughly and convincingly repudiated the Nazi era.

    Thatโ€™s why any academic institution, such as VCU, must approach research relationships with Philip Morris very, very carefully. Itโ€™s entirely possible that the tobacco giant has turned a new leaf, so to speak. I personally see no reason why VCU should not engage with the โ€œnewโ€ Philip Morris. But the VCU administration cannot be naรฏve. To borrow a phrase from Ronald Reagan, it is essential to โ€œtrust but verify.โ€

    Unfortunately, it turns out that VCU signed contracts with Philip Morris that restrict academic freedom to some degree. Because Philip Morris has not fully regained its credibility in the scientific marketplace, such breeches are understandably perceived in the academic community and the R&D world with suspicion, and in some quarters interpreted in the worst possible light.

    Building R&D programs at American universities is all about the human capital. Itโ€™s all about recruiting big-name scientists with established reputations who have locked onto big-dollar funding sources from the corporate world or federal government. If the Philip Morris brouhaha gets any bigger, and if VCU gains a reputation as a company that sacrifices academic standards, the university could find its ability to compete for top scientific talent to be severely compromised.

    The impact would be visible only to a few Richmonders. Instead of landing Scientist A, VCU may find that it can only recruit Scientist B, who isnโ€™t quite as renowned and canโ€™t pull in quite as many research dollars. But the effect would be real nonetheless.

    Additionally, any stain on VCU could spread to the Biotech Park at the very moment that the park has become increasingly successful in recruiting promising new tenants, like the eight Israeli life science companies that have announced in the past year an intention to set up U.S. operations there. If the Biotech Park suffers recruiting fall-out, the Richmond economy loses one of its greatest potential contributors to economic growth and prosperity.

    So, those are the stakes. Itโ€™s easy for the controversy to get caught up in a tug-of-war between those who hate VCU President Eugene Trani and those who love him, or between those who loath Philip Morris and those who feel compelled to defend it. What we, as Richmonders, need is a dispassionate analysis of the facts. How restrictive are the Philip Morris research contracts, and are those restrictions tolerable or benign? The findings donโ€™t affect only VCU and Philip Morris. They affect us.

    The task force recently set up by Trani to โ€œreview the guidelines and policies regarding corporate sponsorship of research at VCUโ€ is the logical place for such an appraisal to take place. It is absolutely critical for the credibility of VCU โ€“ and critical for those elements of the Richmond business community who want to see VCU and the life sciences sector prosper โ€“ that this task force be beyond reproach. The Richmond region cannot afford for the task force to issue a report on Oct. 1 that is assailed by critics as flawed from the inception. The time to ensure the future credibility of the task force is now.

    Trani has ordered that the task force be comprised of six representatives: two nominated by Frank Macrina, vice president of research, two by the vice president of health sciences, and two by the president of the Faculty Senate. The entire process โ€“ who gets appointed, the setting of an agenda, the compiling of documents, the testimony of witnesses โ€“ needs to be entirely transparent to the public. We cannot afford to have the impartiality of this inquiry impeached in any way. VCU and Richmond have too much riding on it.

    (Cross-posted with R’Biz.)


  • 300 MPG. Could This Be the Coolest Car Ever?


    Let me say up front that the Aptera totally rocks. The super fuel-efficient vehicle is so awesomely cool — the hybrid gas-electric vehicle gets up to 300 miles per gallon — that it makes me proud to be an American. (Detroit, watch out, the company that designed the vehicle is based… where else… in Carlsbad, Calif.)

    The designers are pricing the all-electric vehicle at $26,900 and the plug-in hybrid at $29,000. That’s more expensive than a Prius, but with gasoline selling at $4 a gallon, you can save some serious coin with this bad boy. I would be amazed if this vehicle doesn’t make big inroads into the marketplace.

    I first saw the vehicle profiled last night on NBC News. Then this morning the blogger “Not Ed Risse” posted a comment linking to the Aptera website, along with a triumphal note aimed at the real Ed Risse: “300 miles to the gallon! Autonomobility is here to stay. Deal with it.”

    On the philosophical spectrum, I reside somewhere between Not Ed Risse and the real Ed Risse. I have confidence in America’s creative genius. Now that energy prices have risen to a new, higher plateau, we will find ways to both conserve and produce energy in ways that were unimaginable a few years ago. While I do perceive a risk of civilizational collapse due to the unsustainable consumption of energy, I’m pretty confident that our market-based economy will be able to muddle through.

    But it’s premature to high-five each other over the end of the automobility crisis. Permit me to touch upon a couple of issues:

    • The Aptera doesn’t touch the problem of traffic congestion. Take ten million SUVs off the road and replace them with Apteras, and you still have ten millions vehicles on the road, jockeying for scarce roadway capacity and requiring parking spaces.
    • Widespread adoption of the Aptera and comparable vehicles will accelerate the collapse of our highway funding system based on the gasoline tax. Let’s estimate the impact on tax revenues… 300 miles to the gallon vs. 15 miles to the gallon. You do the math. If we don’t pay for roads with a gasoline tax, how will we pay for them?
    • Dysfunctional human settlement patterns are not rendered miraculously functional by low fuel costs. The Aptera will cut down the gasoline bill and reduce pollution — two very good things — but it won’t reduce time spent commuting or reduce the cost of providing public services to inefficient patterns of development.

    So, let us salute the creators of the Aptera and praise American ingenuity. Let us hope that Aptera goes mainstream, inspires imitators and weens millions of Americans from their big cars. But let’s not forget the many other costs — few of them so easily addressed — associated with automobility.


  • Prison Space Arbitrage

    Virginia’s Department of Corrections has dreamed up a clever way to solve its financial problems: Take in 300 prisoners from Wyoming, charging roughly $85 per prisoner per day, while keeping state prisoners housed in local jail and paying only $14 per day. Pocket the profit of $71 per prisoner per day.

    Three hundred prisoners adds up to real money — about $21,000 per day, or more than $7.6 million a year!

    Virginia Beach Sheriff Paul J. Lanteigne doesn’t think it’s such a good deal. He’s on the receiving end, collecting only $14 per day for 67 inmates who are required by state law, he contends, to be housed in a state prison. Meanwhile, the jail’s population is 1,479, but the jail is rated for only 889 inmates, reports Frank Green with the Times-Dispatch. “The jail is severely overcrowded,” Lanteigne said in papers filed yesterday.

    All told, there are 1,799 such “out-of-compliance” inmates in local and regional jails across the state, according to DOC. The Department hopes to import as many as 1,000 more inmates to offset more than $40 million in budget cuts over the next two years.

    Tough call. I admire the ingenuity of the DOC for engaging what amounts to prisoner arbitrage. I’m wondering if someone could create a market that evens out the variations in supply, capacity and price between prison systems. I’ve got 200 New York prisoners here, costing $120 per day per head. South Carolina, your cost is $50 a head. I’ll pay you $90, New York saves $20 and I pocket $10. I’ll tell you what, for that price, I’ll throw in free prisoner transport!

    On the other hand, there is the problem of prison overcrowding in Virginia Beach and other municipalities. While I don’t normally get all worked up over the living conditions of the criminal class, some local jails are atrocious. On this particular issue, call me conflicted.

    (Image: Butch Cassidy, one of Wyoming’s more celebrated prison inmates.)