Bacon's Rebellion

  • HEADLINES, HEADLINES

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    James A. Bacon

    There has been a lot of loose talk on this Blog about Fundamental Transformation not being an urgent need, especially in the Commonwealth of Virgina.

    Our friends the Tiger Riders may have not been reading the headlines.

    Last Saturday the Business section of WaPo was headlined by: “Flying Is Going to Get Even Less Fun.” You may recall our column 21 April column “The End of Flight as We Knew It.”

    Early this week AOL Money featured an analysis of recent stock trends and suggested 17 large Enterprises that, based on stock market performance, may not be with us for long. Number one on the list and four of the top 5 were airline Enterprises – American, United, Northwest and Delta. Five of the top 8 were airline Enterprises.

    Add the cost of aircraft impact on the upper atmosphere to the price of a ticket and the US of A will be back to one flag carrier, airport overcapacity and very few who can afford to travel. Deregulation and cheap fuel sure did improve air travel.

    Think of all those Households (formerly known as “families”) who believed it was fine to disaggregate and scatter across the globe because they could always fly “home” for the holidays and when there was an emergency…

    On the AOL list were three were major financial institutions and the two biggest Autonomobile manufactures – Chrysler already having been towed away after a fire sale. They also believed their own ads and the chant that demand for Large, Private Vehicles was inelastic.

    On 13 June WaPo had a headline “Medical Fraud a Growing Problem” and in the same issue the Business section headlined “The Economy’s Steady Pulse: Health-Care Sector Is Poised to Keep Growing, But so Are Its Costs.”

    Not likely any Tiger Riders are going to try to track down fraud or cut costs if medical services is the only sector of the economy – other that flood damage repair and ad revenue from the Internet – that are expanding. The health and welfare of other nation-states is better with a different system but this one makes some more profit in the short term.

    On Monday the 16th WaPo had a full page ad by HybridTechnologies touting the value of lithium battery powered vehicles. The ad was not there to sell cars, it was selling stock in a company that will sell the cars. Small, efficient vehicles are good, but are not a good investment without fundamental change in settlement patterns. See “Aptera and the Tiger Riders.”

    On the 17th one of the above-the-fold front page stories was headlined “McCain Seeks to End Offshore Drilling Ban.” WaPo commentators had a field day with the flip-flop from prior positions but the real story was that the flip side of the jump page was that overexposed crying baby ad paid for by ‘The people of America’s Oil and Natural Gas Industry’ that asks “who really pays when congress taxes oil companies?” The children of well paid energy CEOs?

    A society that has seven parking places for every Autonomobile and five bed places for every body needs to reconsider where the current trajectory is taking everyone, including those at the top of the Ziggurat.

    Perhaps citizenS need to come up with a new metric for well being.

    It is enough to make one want to add some paragraphs to THE ESTATES MATRIX.

    EMR

  • “Low Hanging Fruit” vs. “Deep Green”

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    James A. Bacon

    The Governor’s task force on climate change is meeting in Blacksburg today. One of the voices that will not be heard is that of Patrick Michaels, former state climatologist and one of the nation’s leading Global Warming skeptics. Despite his extensive knowledge on climate change issues, Michaels was conspicuously not asked to serve on the commission. That’s no surprise, of course, given the fact that the commission was predicated on the key assumption, which Michaels questions, that human-caused increases in carbon dioxide will cause calamitously higher temperatures and sea levels. Under the circumstances, inviting Michaels to participate arguably would not lead to a productive exchange of ideas.

    To my knowledge, Michaels has never commented on Virginia’s climate change task force… until now. In a post on the World Climate Report blog either Michaels or one of his co-bloggers takes on the subject of “The Virginia Climate Change Commission and the Mirage of Low Hanging Fruit.” (Authorship of the blog post is not attributed to any one of the blog’s three contributing editors, so it’s not clear who wrote the post. But if the author wasn’t Michaels, it seems likely that he shares the author’s views.)

    Rather than revisit the familiar global-warming controversies, the author focuses on the commission’s stated goal of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 30 percent by the year 2025 in order to restore emissions to 2000 levels. The goal, contends the author, who apparently has attended one or more of the commission hearings, will be harder than it looks.

    The Commission [is] seeking potential ways to meet this goal through conservation, energy efficiency improvements, encouragement of renewable energies, etc. Oftentimes the discussion turned to identifying the “low hanging fruit” that was available to achieve the agreed upon goal — that is finding the easiest and most straightforward way of attempting to reduce emissions.

    But there is no low-hanging fruit, the author contends. Obvious changes are already spoken for. Recommending changes that business and government are likely to make even in the absence of any action by the commission will amount to double counting and won’t get Virginia any closer to the commission’s goals. The argument is a bit arcane but worthy of consideration. Here’s the logic:

    Virginia’s gross state product has been growing over the last 10 years at an average rate of about 3.5 percent yearly (2000 constant dollars). Virginia’s energy usage as well as its CO2 emissions have grown at a slower rate: slightly more than two percent yearly. In other words, Virginia’s economy is getting more energy efficient per unit of economic output.

    Forecasts of Virginia’s economic output, energy consumption and CO2 emissions through 2025 take that improving energy efficiency into account. According to the “Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goal Update,” the Kaine administration is already assuming “continuing improvement in energy efficiency/energy intensity” for its “Business As Usual” energy scenario.

    “Virginians have found ways to produce more per unit energy usage year-over-year through innovation and hard work,” writes the World Climate Report author. Motivated by higher energy prices, Virginians are projected to increase energy efficiency by 25 percent without any action on the part of the commission. The commission needs to find an extra 30 percent in CO2 reduction.

    Writes the author:

    What all of this means, is that the Commission cannot suggest things that would otherwise occur in their absence — for as we have seen, these things are implicit in the business-as-usual extrapolations. Thus, the Commission cannot recommend actions that are somewhat obvious (i.e. the low hanging fruit) and that are ongoing or will occur on their own in response to higher fuel costs, introduction of new technologies, price saving measures, etc.

    Such actions include a constant push towards improving manufacturing efficiencies, the trend towards cars with higher gas mileage, the gradual switchover to compact florescent light bulbs, and any other initiatives that are already on the books or would otherwise be thought up. … Again, business-as-usual implies innovation.

    Bacon’s bottom line: I concur with this appraisal. Now, to follow the World Climate Report author’s logic to its logical conclusion: Achieving the Commission’s goals will require Fundamental Change to Virginia’s institutions. In other words, we need to go “deep green.”

    “Green Lite” — relatively easy-to-implement conservation measures from CFL light bulbs to building-automation systems, from higher gas-mileage vehicles to more efficient industrial processes — is already happening. Implementation of these solutions will be driven by the soaring price of gasoline, coal, natural gas and electricity. Households and businesses are amply motivated to seek them out.

    But there’s a deeper level of energy conservation that’s not so easily achieved because it entails changes not just to individual or corporate behavior but changes to intractably energy-intensive transportation systems and human settlement patterns. Reaching the Kaine administration’s goal of cutting CO2 by 30 percent (on top of the Business-As-Usual reduction of 25 percent) will require more than increasing the average fuel efficiency of Virginia’s automobile fleet by three or four miles per gallon. It will require cutting vehicle miles driven by 20 percent (or some enormous percentage). Likewise, reaching the goal will require more than installing more efficient HVAC systems and stuffing insulation in the cracks of single family dwellings. It may require a 20 percent reduction in the cubic footage of residential, retail, office or industrial space to be heated and cooled.

    While necessary for a prosperous and sustainable society, embracing “deep green” and achieving Fundamental Change will be neither easy nor popular.

    Today is the Climate Change commission’s last day for the presentation of facts and ideas by experts. It will be interesting to see if any of the materials posted online include any discussion of the need for changes that go beyond “Business As Usual” scenarios.

  • UVa Increases Endowment Payout

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    James A. Bacon

    The University of Virginia will tap more of its $3.2 billion endowment to strengthen university programs and help hold the line on tuition increases, reports the Daily Progress. The Board of Visitors voted Friday to increase the payout rate to 5 percent of the fund’s market value on June 30, a move that should generate $16 million more for university academics and UVa Health System patients.

    The board also approved a new formula for determining how much of its endowment is spent each year: After fiscal 2009, the university will increase its endowment spending by the rate of inflation, as long as the resulting payout is within four percent to six percent of the fund’s market value.

    The $2.24 billion operating budget for 2008-2009 provides $1.22 billion for academics, $980 million for the medical center, and $34 million for the College at Wise — a 5.4 spending percent increase. The budget allows for 159 new full-time workers, up from 12,170, a new student data system, more student financial aid, and more.

    Bacon’s bottom line: Good. This move is long overdue. I’ve long criticized UVa, my alma mater, and other public Virginia universities for piling up bigger and bigger endowments for the seemingly sole purpose of claiming, “Mine’s bigger than your’s” — even as they aggressively jacked up tuitions year after year. The increased payout and future indexing for inflation helps ensure that the endowment is used for the purposes of improving the quality of education and keeping tuitions affordable.

    The BoV’s actions are not necessarily the end of the story. Alumni and other stakeholders must continue to scrutinize where the money goes. But Friday’s actions signal that the Board clearly understands that the endowment does not exist for its own sake — it needs to be used.

  • A Virginia Dem on Transportation: One Good Idea

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    James A. Bacon

    Virginia Senator John Miller (D-1SD) will introduce a bill to abolish the Hampton Roads Transportation Authority (HRTA).

    This unelected, unaccountable, unseparated powers Regional Government – ruled un-Constitutional (by unanimous decision of the Virginia Supreme Court) -has already spent $200k.

    Let’s see which Hampton Roads legislators sign up to be co-patrons of this bill – and how many Republicans make it bi-partisan for good governance.

  • Virginia GOP on Transportation: One Good Idea, One Bad

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    James A. Bacon

    As the special transportation session of the General Assembly draws nigh, the House Republican leadership has thrown out some new ideas regarding transportation funding. One of them deserves serious consideration. The other one is dangerous: a potential blank check for the political class.

    Del. G. Glenn Oder, R-Newport News, announced Friday that he had introduced legislation to create a “constitutional lock-box” for the Transportation Trust Fund. This idea, backed by Gov. Timothy M. Kaine early in his administration, would protect dedicated transportation from revenue razzias to fund other programs. Politically, a constitutional lockbox is mandatory to induce voters to support tax increases for transportation construction. Without such a guarantee, only the most naive would trust the politicians to honor a commitment to leave the funds alone.

    Said Oder in a press release: “It is time to put ‘trust’ back into the Transportation Trust Fund. This constitutional amendment provides a guarantee to the citizens of Virginia that money dedicated to transportation will be spent on transportation. To prevent similar diversions and raids, we approved a constitutional amendment to protect funds for education raised through the State Lottery. We should protect transportation dollars as well.”

    Oder’s legislation is backed by the House Republican leadership, including Speaker William J. Howell, R-Stafford. Said Howell: “The people of Virginia have every right to expect that moneys dedicated for transportation will, in fact, go to transportation.”

    Right on!

    While Howell’s logic is impeccable in that instance, he floated a stinker last week when discussing how to address the transportation needs of Hampton Roads. In an interview with the Daily Press, Howell suggested leasing the long-term tolling rights for Hampton Roads bridges and tunnels in return for up-front payments in cash.

    “You can’t raise taxes enough to build all of those things,” Howell said of the region’s list of seven major transportation projects, which includes expanding the Hampton Roads Bridge-Tunnel, reports the Daily Press’ Kimball Payne. “Looking at tolls and concessions is the only way you’re going to solve Hampton Roads’ problems.”

    The problem with the transportation projects favored by the political class of Hampton Roads is they are largely for the benefit of the port and maritime interests, and to some extent development interests. By leasing off bridge and tunnel concessions and hiking tolls to pay for those projects, Howell’s proposal would represent a multibillion-dollar transfer of wealth from the general citizenry to the port/maritime/development sectors of the business community.

    I’m all in favor of finding creative ways to build the new transportation capacity needed to expand the ports — as long as the projects can pay their own way, and as long as private interests shoulder the risk that revenue projections might not materialize. Toll the trucks. Tax the containers. Create Community Development Authorities to develop industrial real estate along the expanded highways and use the proceeds to issue bonds. Privatize the Virginia Port Authority. But don’t tax or toll already overtaxed citizens for something that benefits them only indirectly if at all.

  • Obligatory Ruminations about Human Settlement Patterns in Disney World

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    James A. Bacon

    Before departing on vacation, I promised to share my impressions of what might be gleaned from the Disney World experiment for building functional human settlement patterns in the Rest of the World. I fully acknowledge that the commentary that follows is based upon quick and superficial observation, which may be of limited value. But some interesting points do emerge.

    Utilidors. Disney turned down my request to view the underground complex — a network of corridors that contain utilities and accommodate logistical transportation — that I deemed the most innovative aspect of Disney World and, possibly, the most instructive for design of other communities. Accordingly, most of what I know about the “utilidors” I gleaned from an online article, “Under the Magic Kingdom,” on the HiddenMickeys.org website.

    The 15-foot-high corridors were built at ground level, then covered with soil from excavation of the Seven Seas Lagoon. Disney World was actually built atop this spoil, creating the above-ground level visible to visitors and a below-ground level used by employees. From the website:

    You have never seen a delivery truck at Disney – have you? Magic Kingdom’s first floor has all the access roads for the Cast Members (employees) and service vehicles, the “tunnels” or Utilidors, the AVAC, service rooms, wardrobe and costuming, male and female locker rooms, offices, storage, kitchens, break rooms, two employee cafeterias, including the Fantasyland Dining Room, Kingdom Kutters, a Fire Prevention Center, Studio “D” and many of the support departments for the Magic Kingdom. The Fantasyland Dining Room and restrooms are to the left.

    Underground corridors strike me as a possibly useful adjunct to Claude Lewenz’ concept of pedestrian villages. (See “First, Shoot All the Cars.”) While the pedestrian-only aspects of Lewenz’ village are highly appealing, the difficulty in accommodating delivery trucks and other utilitarian vehicles creates problems that I’m not sure that Lewenz ever resolved satisfactorily. Disney-esque corridors could solve those problems — though, admittedly, at a significant cost.

    Monorail. I did have a chance to ride the monorail, which is showing its age after 27 years. The mass transit system has 12 trains consisting of six cars each, capable of running up to 40 miles per hour. I’m no expert in mass transit, so I apologize in advance if my commentary sounds like Urban Planning 101

    The Disney monorail strikes me as a “niche” system that is appropriate in certain settings, but not a tool capable of providing mobility and access for large populations. The beauty of the monorail, or so it would appear to my uninformed eye, is that the structure takes up relatively little space. The struts upon which the track rests have a small “footprint,” therefore can be retrofitted into an existing urban space, presumably a highway or boulevard, relatively easily.

    The monorail stations need not be large if located inside a building, as the Disney World monorail is in one of the Disney hotels. However, the ramps connecting the monorail to the pedestrian level did consume considerable space — posing an obstacle for retrofitting an already-developed area.

    Multimodal. Where Disney truly excels is in its implementation of multi-modal transportation. Each of the four main theme parks is surrounded by vast acres of parking lots, which function as the resort’s interface with the world. Tens of thousands of visitors arrive by car daily. To transport them quickly and efficiently from the parking lots into the pedestrian-oriented parks, Disney operates an elaborate tram system. To provide access between the theme parks, as well as the various resort hotels and other facilities, Disney runs buses, passenger boats and the aforementioned monorail.

    The key to making the Disney system work is the existence of well-placed multi-modal transportation hubs, where parking-lot trams, passenger boats, monorails, buses and pedestrian walkways all come together and visitors can easily switch from one mode to the other. Once the newcomer has figured out the system — what connects with what — the multimodal system functions reasonably well.

    Where planning for Virginia’s transportation facilities seem deficient, it strikes me, is (a) the paucity of such multi-modal centers, and (b) the failure in imagination to incorporate water-borne craft into the multi-modal system. Unfortunately, I have no idea what it cost to put the Disney system into place, nor how much it costs to operate. I suspect that Disney treats such information as closely guarded competitive intelligence. Therefore, there is no way to know whether implementation of such a system would make sense in real-world urban conditions in Virginia today.

    There you have it, folks, the sum total of what I learned from the Mouse.

    Celebration. P.S. To answer Ed Risse’s question, I did not have a chance to visit Celebration, Disney’s New Urbanist development built nearby. From what I heard from a friend who works for the Disney organization, Celebration is both a success and a failure. The New Urbanist formula was such a commercial success that the prices of property there rose to astronomical levels that priced less affluent households out of the “affordable” housing envisioned for the development. The obvious answer: Build more communities like Celebration, eliminate the scarcity value, and “affordable” housing will stay affordable.

    I found one other observation made by my friend to be noteworthy: Performance of the retail development in Celebration has been disappointing. Turns out, people still like driving long distances to Big Box retail outside the development. Whether the phenomenon of $4-per-gallon changes that predilection remains to be seen.

    (Photo credits: Utilidors, HiddenMickeys.org; monorail, Oren’s Transit Page.)

  • Escape from Orlando

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    James A. Bacon

    Wow, it’s been a crazy week. Let me tell you, Disney World is not for old people — well, it’s not for old people acclimated to an auto-centric society where little walking is required. In Disney World, you do a lot of walking. You also find yourself hurtling along in roller coasters and other devices at high speeds, often experiencing multiple G forces.

    I prefer more contemplative get-aways that give me a chance to read and relax. My wife likes cramming in as many experiences as she possibly can. At Disney World, it wasn’t a contest. My wife won. The Bacon family ran itself ragged 12 hours a day, then collapsed in the hotel room long enough to re-charge batteries and hit the rides again. Fun — but exhausting.

    We’re back in Richmond now, and I’ve plowed through the 1,400 emails in my in-box. (More than half of it was spam; most of the rest was commentary by you, dear readers). Now I’m ready to belly up to the PC and get back to the business of writing about the real world, which is a lot more interesting than the ersatz, Disneyfied world.

    Just a few comments before I plunge ahead.

    First, for the record, I found Epcot and Animal Kingdom to be the most enjoyable parts of Disney World. In particular, I was intrigued by the Epcot greenhouse, where a slow boat ride takes you on a tour past a remarkable array of fruit trees and vegetables grown under hydroponic conditions. I know, I’m such a dweeb. To my fellow dweebs, I highly recommend it. Alas, I missed the “Behind the Seeds” tour for a more in-depth look. But I suspect that greenhouses and hydroponics will play a role in the sustainable, energy-efficient agriculture of the future.

    Second, I want to thank Ed Risse for keeping the blog alive in my absence. Good job, Ed, you certainly managed to keep the pot boiling!

    (Image credit: Gardenvisit.com)

  • Kaine Defends His Record on Transportation/Land Use

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    James A. Bacon

    An interesting sidelight of Gov. Timothy M. Kaine’s press release announcing the Sub-Cabinet on Community Investment is a defense of his track record on transportation and land use issues. I have broken out that passage from my previous post in order to give it more emphasis here.

    Over the last two years, the press release stated, Kaine has worked with the General Assembly to improve coordination between land use and transportation planning, including:

    • A standardized process for traffic impact analyses for new developments
    • Stricter connectivity standards for subdivision streets
    • Improved traffic flow through access management standards
    • Designation of urban development areas
    • Expanded ability to issue road impact fees
    • Local administration of construction projects

    Some of these initiatives originated from Kaine’s policy shop, and some of them from the Republicans. Regardless of whose ideas they originally were, Kaine embraced them at some point and was instrumental in passing them into law.

    I’ve been pretty tough on Kaine for his tax proposals to boost transportation funding and falling short on campaign promises. But the fact remains, he has done more to elevate the critical link between transportation and land use than any governor in Virginia history.

  • APTERA AND THE TIGER RIDERS

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    James A. Bacon

    We saw Jim Bacon’s 4 June post on the Aptera concept car (“300 MPG. This could be the Coolest Car Ever?”) just before we left on a 22 mile chained trip to accomplish seven errands that could not be done here in Greater Warrenton Fauquier. (For those who came in late, since 1973 we have primarily worked very near where we lived and have tried to minimize our travel except where there is no alternative.)

    We stated our view of Aptera in a comment when the vehicle was called to our attention via a comment following the 2 June post “Tremble, Mortals, the Rebellion is Unleashed.”

    Tiny cars are old, old news. Folks have been designing little vehicles that go for miles with not much fuel for decades.

    Mini cars can be part of a solution to Access and Mobility. We helped design Planned New Communities around mini-vehicles over three decades ago. They can work well in some existing urban environments but it is not a slam dunk. It takes a design / redesign of the settlement pattern and the transport infrastructure at the Alpha Village and Alpha Community scale as well as the design of the vehicle to achieve a real alternative to Large, Private Vehicles in most environments.

    Jim was so excited about the Aptera in his 4 June post that the little three wheeler and its ilk were on our mind as we carried out our journey. This was not a “road trip” and we took the least traveled routes that got us to a series of destinations in a reasonable time frame. The trip did not take us on I-66, the most heavily traveled road we used was US Route 29.

    In spite of this, in our travels we encountered two 18-wheel flatbeds owned by a company in Alabama hauling very heavy loads. One driver knew where he was going and apparently was running late, the other driver did know where he was going and was trying to keep up – ran some yellow / red lights, etc. The Alabama trucks were hauling just the sort of loads that should be on a railroad, not cutting off drivers in vehicles weighing one twentieth as much. At least we were visible and had good visibility from our vehicle.

    Then there were several landscaper’s trucks with big trailers full of parked (not secured) mowers and no brakes who were late for their next mowing job. There was an Escalade driver who did not want to be passed by a VW beetle and two Lexus drivers who wanted to get in front of the school bus before it made its next stop (more red lights) and then … You get the idea, it was a normal day on the roadways.

    No person in their right mind would drive an Aptera under these conditions and we were just running errands. One of the reasons I sold my first sports car, among others, was that I watched what happened to an MG-midget that was unseen by the driver of a semi when the truck changed lanes. An Aptera would fit nicely under the bed of, and then under the wheels of, one of those Alabama flatbeds…

    An Aptera would look like burner cover after being hit even by the VW Beetle. Driving a vehicle that rides low to the ground at 30, 40, 50 or 60 mph among other vehicles that weigh up to 30 times as much would be a form of insanity. Even the far more substantial Smart car profiled in THE PROBLEM WITH CARS would be “uncomfortable.”

    A few days later (6 June 2008) CNN ran a story “SUV owners keep on truckin’ despite gas prices.” You can guess why. The disaggregated lives of the owners lead them to believe that they have no alternative but to use these vehicles. And now Chrysler will guarantee they do not need to worry about gas prices if they buy a new Chrysler built SUV.

    Perhaps you would like to get a hybrid? On the 9th US News had a story titled “Is a Hybrid Worth it.” For the most part the answer is no from a return-on-investment perspective. The vast majority of the current rash of hybrids are just Green Greed – by companies that make them – and Green Fog by those who buy them.

    What is the bottom line here?

    The US of A has evolved:

    A settlement pattern,

    A transport system to serve that settlement pattern, and

    A system of providing Large Private Vehicles to drive on that system.

    Collectively, these three realities make incremental “improvements” in Mobility and Access

    Unwise for those at the top of the economic Ziggurat, and

    Impossible for the majority who are not at the top.

    What does this say about Fundamental Transformation (formerly Fundamental Change) in human settlement patterns and Fundamental Transformations in governance structure to achieve functional settlement patterns?

    It says that until the majority of citizens understand the need for those Fundamental Transformations they will not happen,

    And further, all the discussion of “solutions,” not just by the Tiger Riders but by well-intended incrementalists (“we-have-to-start-somewhere” / “that-is-all-we-can-sell-politically” / “this-is-a-step-in-the-right-direction”) only puts off the day when there is informed consensus of the need for Transformation / Change.

    Drive safely and have a good weekend.

    EMR

    PS: Jim said he would be traveling Saturday and it would be good to put up something. I hope he had a safe drive up from Greater Orlando, he was not in an Aptera.

  • Kaine Establishes Sub-Cabinet on Community Investment

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    James A. Bacon

    Gov. Timothy M. Kaine has issued an executive order establishing a Sub-Cabinet on Community Investment tasked with the goal of promoting “smart, sustainable growth” by ensuring that state funds are invested in projects that reduce “suburban sprawl.”

    “Virginia loses 165 acres every day to development, and while we welcome growth and economic success, it is paramount that we grow in a wise and sustainable way with an eye towards conservation,” said Kaine in a press release. “The Sub-Cabinet on Community Investment will prioritize the state’s investments to make sure we protect Virginia’s precious natural resources for present use and future needs.”

    The Sub-Cabinet’s will destribute grants, loans, matching funds and other discretionary funds to “incentivize desirable growth.” The press release identified the following principles:

    • Invest in innovation
    • Invest in the use of existing infrastructure
    • Invest in compact development
    • Protect and restore Virginia’s natural resources
    • Conserve Virginia’s limited natural resources
    • Invest in diverse housing opportunities
    • Invest in alternative transportation choices
    • Take a long-term view to planning.

    “The Commonwealth will seek to invest in projects that promote compact development, consume less land, conserve open space, and minimize the negative social, economic, and environmental consequences of sprawl,” stated the press release.

    The Executive Order is an outgrowth of an internal policy summit, facilitated by the Governor’s Institute on Community Design, which recommended policies for sustainable growth and open space preservation in the Commonwealth. The Institute is chaired by former Maryland Governor Parris Glendening.

    “States that have been successful in protecting their natural resources, developing vibrant communities and improving mobility for their citizens have done so by encouraging cross-departmental collaboration,” said Governor Glendening. “The array of issues states face in addressing the impacts of growth and development demand such coordination and I commend Governor Kaine for taking this important step.”

    The Sub-Cabinet will be chaired by Secretary of Natural Resources L. Preston Bryant, and consist of Secretary of Administration Viola O. Baskerville, Secretary of Commerce and Trade Patrick O. Gottschalk, Secretary of Finance Jody M. Wagner, and Secretary of Transportation Pierce R. Homer.

    Bacon’s bottom line: This sounds like a positive step in the right direction, although the devil is always in the details. One thing that appears to be missing from the list of state “tools” for discouraging sprawl is transportation funding. I haven’t had a chance to read the Executive Order yet, so I shall refrain from further comment.

  • THE INELASTIC PERSPECTIVE OF THE TIGER RIDERS

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    James A. Bacon

    Adam Smith is smiling.

    He never did like Tiger Riders, always believed in that invisible hand.

    Since 1973 – when I started paying careful attention (and when our Household made decisions to cut non-renewable energy consumption at the Household scale) – every time there has been a jump in fuel prices or lines at the gas stations citizens have changed their habits.

    This time is no exception. Yesterday’s headline at the top of WaPo Page 1 reads: “At $4 a Gallon, Rethinking Cars’ Reign.” In a CNN poll, most expect fuel shortages. “$5 a gallon by Fall” is the word on the street and Congress just gave speculators a green light.

    Over the same 35 years, every time some one suggests that:

    • Industrialized nation-states have to rethink dependence on Large, Private Vehicles for Mobility and Access there has been a chant about Americans loving Autonomobiles, or

    • A fair allocation of the cost of location-variable goods and services, the Tiger Riders talk about the inelasticity of gasoline prices, the prospect of cheap alternative fuels and unending supplies inexpensive energy.

    These smokescreens are just part much larger and more important deceptions related to the trajectory of civilization.

    In December of 2006 we suggested there was a need for “A New Metric for Citizen Well Being” (db4.dev.baconsrebellion.com) to replace consumption and growth.

    In March of this year we suggested, for the reasons spelled out in THE ESTATES MATRIX, that MainStream Media was obscuring the need to abandon Mass OverConsumption and Business As Usual in order to preserve – for the time being – its revenue stream. “Good New, Bad Reporting” 24 March 2008.

    Today’s WaPo headline is “McCain, Obama Clash over Economy.” One has an 80s solution, the other a 90s solution.

    Here are some tentative targets for crafting a realistic economic survival plan. There is no guarantee that this level of conservative action will change the trajectory enough but they will help and they are within limits that most citizens would embrace if they understood the enormity of the consequences of Business As Usual:

    One percent annual decline in Gross Domestic Product

    Three percent annual decline in Consumer Consumption

    Five percent annual decline in Total Energy Consumption

    Ten percent annual decline in Energy Imports

    After a decade on this new consumption trajectory it should be possible to anticipate a one percent annual drop in total population. Both per capita consumption and total population declines are necessary.

    The role of functional human settlement patterns will be critical in achieving these goals. Functional human settlement patterns are the only strategy that can achieve this level of conservation without destroying the Quality of Life for the majority of citizens.

    In fact Lewenz argues that changes in human settlement patterns that would achieve these goals at the Village scale would improve Quality of Life. We agree.

    In this discussion, we are talking about Quality of Life from the perspective of 75 percent of the economic and social Ziggurat. See THE ESTATES MATRIX.

    EMR

  • GROVETON AND THE TIGER RIDERS

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    James A. Bacon

    In the comments section following WHAT ARE THEY THINKING Groveton gives the League of Tiger Riders some things to think about. In this post we have taken several of Groveton’s key observations and re-sequenced them to put the Tiger Rider issue in the spotlight.

    Lets start with Groveton saying:

    “I agree with EMR about the wealth gap and the inevitable consequences of that gap.”

    The Wealth Gap may not be the most obvious front burner driver of society dysfunction but failure to address it NOW may make all the other problems and their solutions moot.

    The Tiger Riders who want to stimulate Supercapitalism took down the sign that read: “Welcome to those who want to join us and make a great nation-state.”

    In its place they put up two signs:

    One sign says: “Come here and get filthy rich, no commitment to hard work or citizen participation required.”

    The other sign reads: “We have given up the whole idea of hard work and real creativity. We are into entertainment, consumption and speculation. If you want to work hard doing what you will never see anyone doing on TV you can be better off here than you can where you live now.” (And by the way we are leaving the back door unlocked so you can sneak in…)

    When “The Shape of the Future” was written, population was headed towards stability with the long term prospect of slowly decreasing. Those two signs drafted in the 80s and erected in the 90s changed that big time.

    Those at the bottom of the Ziggurat who do not know any way to get ahead but to work hard came in droves via the front door and the back door.

    Those who had special skills or capital to invest also came in droves. (A lot of that capital came from selling oil and junk to US of A consumers.)

    Those who are smart enough to have skills and capital recognize that US of A is like an athlete who has been too long on steroids – cheap energy. They are smart and want to be able to bail when things turn south.

    Here Groveton adds an important observation about which I was not previously aware:

    “For example, there is a trend among Americans of European extraction to apply for dual citizenship with the European country of their heritage. Of course, as a citizen in any EU country you can live in any other EU country.”

    Keep your options open!

    Groveton goes on: “America is aging. That’s a demographic fact.”

    A caveat: The percentage of those who are over X is going up but there are a lot of young immigrants and even more children of immigrants – especially children of illegals who want to have children born in the US of A.

    Back to Groveton: “However, the wealth is aging faster and this is a bigger issue. If you look at the percentage of national wealth held by Americans of different age levels – the older are getting richer relative to the younger over time.”

    Very true. The children of “the greatest generation” are stealing from their children and grandchildren for reasons we spell out in “The Shape of the Future.” Former Interior Secretary Stewart Udall and his wife wrote a powerful apology to their grandchildren on this topic. It is worth a read – look it up in the 31 March High Country News.

    Groveton observes: “The biggest socioeconomic change is the shift in wealth to the elderly (or relatively elderly). The elderly retire, they stop getting salaries, they have more flexibility as to where (and how) they live.”

    Caveat: With the current downturn and hemorrhaging of retirement funds a lot of the older folks will be working a lot longer. Since one of the few real benefits of technology over the past three decades is that those at the top of the Ziggurat are living longer and are healthier, they can work longer too.

    Groveton says: “Bottom line – it’s not the Top 5%ers vs. the RHTCs. It is the Americans aged 20 – 40 vs. Americans aged 41 – 60.

    Caveat: It is not either / or it is both / and. Recall all those “AOL millionaires” and all those who coasted through college and got the big bucks right out of school.

    Here comes the key input from Groveton: “And the capital owned by those in retirement or close to retirement is mobile. So, first you have a wide wealth gap.”

    “Then, 51% of the population elects a demigod. Then, the elderly wealthy move their capital (and, perhaps, themselves) to countries that don’t have a demigod as president / prime minister.”

    “Then, the US of A is done.”

    A very powerful argument for “minding the gap” – as they say in London – and for why we harp on the Wealth Gap issue.

    One more caveat on this topic: Elderly and Mobile – especially those who have spent their lives relying on the Autonomobile for Mobility and Access – do not go together.

    Some will move money off shore but those are in the top 5% and they rely on ‘money managers.’
    As we will note in a review of “How to Build a Village” this demographic may be a key market for a Lewenz / Parallel Village.

    Groveton asks: “Tell me where I am wrong here.”

    Not at all “wrong,” just some caveats.

    Lets go on to another prediction of Groveton’s:

    “I predict that the question of proposing a new constitutional convention will begin to be asked of candidates to the state legislature in many states.”

    Darrell — Chesapeake says it would not do any good because the Elephant Clan and the Donkey Clan would control the process. Right on Darrell.

    That is why humans have to think of Fundamental Transformation in governance structure if citizens are preserve democracies with market economies.

    What kind of Fundamental Transformations? Well, just the sort the founding fathers said would be needed: Changes to match changed conditions.

    The first one? Evolve the governance so that it is congruent with the organic components of human settlement pattern.

    Finally Groveton says: “I wonder about human settlement patterns being a big part of the solution.”

    Groveton you need to give serious thought to the economic, social and physical impact of human settlement pattern – there is a book on the topic….

    Groveton goes on to suggest that “Beyond that, I believe the wealth gap needs to be solved long before a more rational settlement plan can be implemented.”

    Grave settlement pattern Myth: It will take a long time to change human settlement patterns. More on that in THE USE AND MANAGEMENT OF LAND

    But will citizens change human settlement patterns with backhoes?

    Later on in the comments Larry Gross says:

    “No one.. I repeat no one is going to get rid of backhoes and go back to men with shovels even if fuel toes to $10 a gallon.”

    Since we have far more land devoted to urban land uses than there is a potential market at sustainable patterns and densities, most of the “development” will be REDEVELOPMENT.

    There will be a need for some backhoes but more shovels for two reasons:

    First, the best way to solve the Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis is with large doses of sweat equity.

    Second, vast amounts of energy has been wasted on backhoes because of cheap energy.

    When I was managing the development of community infrastructure I would often observe the following:

    Three able bodied men (this was a while ago) would observe an unanticipated problem in laying a pipe, building a road or installing a storm or sanitary sewer.

    They would discuss the problem for a while and then radio the office (this was a while ago >:) and the office would dispatch a lowboy with a bigger backhoe.

    After hours of waiting and driving and unloading / loading and minutes of digging the problem was solved.

    It could have been done by those three in an hour with shovels and the equipment they already had on the job.

    Recall that second sign by the Supercapitalists about not wanting to do the work any more? $10 fuel will change that.

    We will deal with inelasticity again soon.

    EMR

  • Family Vacation: Disney World

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    We have finally gotten Internet service restored to our condo here in Orlando, so I can drop in from afar and observe how the Rebellion is faring. Thanks to EMR for keeping the blog alive — and especially for giving Pat McSweeney’s legal victory the attention it was due.

    Although the overt purpose of the Bacon family trip to Disney World is to ride a bunch of hurl-inducing rides, listen to live performances of Disney tunes we’ve already heard a zillion times, engorge ourselves on fried food and open up our pockets to giant vacuum cleaners calibrated to suck out every dollar bill, dime, nickel and penny, my secret agenda is to study human settlement patterns.

    Here’s my verdict: Orlando is a mess. If you ever visit Disney, stay on the Disney property. You do not want to contend with Florida-style dysfunctional human settlement patterns. Frankly, I have seen little edifying enough here in Orlando to write about.

    But the good news is, we stopped in Savannah, Ga., on the way down — and Savannah is an urban jewel. I will have a lot to say about Savannah later on.

    Indeed, if we ever head down this way again, I am determined to stay in Savannah and let the rest of the family down drive down to Orlando without me. As long as my wife can tune into National Public Radio and the kids have movies to watch, no one will even notice I’m not in the car. Somewhere around St. Augustine, someone will go, “Hey, what happened to Dad? Who’s going to pump the gas?” But it will be too late. I’ll be strolling around the city that inspired “Midnight in the Garden of Good and Evil.”

    Mwa-ha-ha!

  • MORE NON-THINKING

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    Following the “WHAT ARE THEY THINKING” post At 11:58 AM, Groveton commented…

    “The problems currently facing the United States will, sometime within in the next 20 years, precipitate a crisis.

    Today’s WaPo has a story by David Hilzenrath under the headline “Mortgages With No Money Down Still Available: Fannie, Freddie Programs Fly in Face of Foreclosures.”

    I would say sooner rather than later Groveton.

    Groveton also asked:

    “So, what differentiates a crisis from a national calamity? The willingness and ability to change.”

    Too many are in the League of Tiger Riders to admit the need to change.

    Further, Tiger Riders expect that if they fail that they will get a Bear S. bailout.

    More on Grovetons several contributions to the WHAT ARE THEY THINKING post soon.

    EMR

  • CONGRATS PAT McS

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    The WaPo headline says it all:

    “Va. High Court Revives Dulles Toll Road Suit: Proposed Metro Extension Hits Another Snag”

    Well actually the headline writer is not a lawyer. What happened is that the Supreme Court of Virginia refused to grant a request by the toll transfer proponents to have the suit thrown out. Same result.

    In any event, congratulations Patrick.

    Even if Jim Bacon has an upset stomach from too much sugar and scary rides, this will make him feel better.

    EMR

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Book cover of 'Dust Mites: A Second American Revolution' by James A. Bacon, featuring astronauts planting a flag with a blue and white emblem on a lunar landscape, with Earth visible in the background.
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The year: 2075. The American colonies on the Moon are getting restless under Washington’s tyrannical rule….

This second edition of “Dust Mites” has a snazzy new cover, includes helpful lunar maps, and is 5,000 words tighter than the original. The sequel, “Trogs,” is scheduled for publication this summer.

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Bacon’s Rebellion is Virginia’s leading politically non-aligned portal for news, opinions and analysis about state, regional and local public policy. Read more about us here.

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