• Ekern Makes the Tough Decisions at VDOT

    David Ekern, the Virginia Department of Transportation Comissioner, has kept a lower profile than his predecessor Philip Shucet, but he seems to be a capable, even impressive, administrator in his own way. He has been thinking hard about how to maximize Virginia’s road/highway revenues in an era where revenues are stagnant and costs, especially for materials, are rising.

    A VDOT employee has passed along an e-mail communication to much (or all) of the VDOT workforce in which Ekern lays out “what I believe about our future and the challenges we are facing.” In a logical and dispassionate fashion, he makes the case for focusing on the “basics” and the “have-to-haves,” such as maintenance of pavement and bridges, over desirables such as mowing and hedge trimming. Ekern also talks about targeting 18,000 to 20,000 miles of roads that bear the most traffic, and consolidating VDOT’s organizational structure.

    Sounds like Ekern is the kind of guy you want on the team when you’re managing for hard times. Given the parlous condition of the economy and state finances right now, we’ll be facing hard times for a long time to come. His communication follows:

    Over the last week you have likely heard Secretary of Transportation Pierce Homer say that every part of our business must be “on the table” as we face changing economic conditions. You have read in my previous correspondence that no part of VDOT “will be untouched by the actions we must take” in order to manage the huge shift in transportation funding we are experiencing.

    Over the last seven days, I have had the opportunity to visit with over 500 of you from all over the state to hear your concerns, gather your ideas and listen to your questions. I will meet with more of you in the coming weeks. This helps me to develop plans to address these difficult times.

    I want to share what I believe about our future and the challenges we are facing. More.


  • I’ll Be Back

    Please forgive my unexplained absence from this blog over the past week. I have taken on a full-time job, which starts today, and my time has been consumed by the winding up of a number of projects and ensuring a smooth hand-off on others. As soon as I get acclimated to my new schedule, I shall return.


  • TOWARD A SUSTAINABLE TRAJECTORY

    Todayโ€™s events suggest the existing governance structure is skating ever closer to the abyss. On Sunday, 21 September we posted a note titled โ€œFundamental Transformationโ€ that focused on Fundamental Transformation of governance structure.

    As of 28 September there were 37 comments following the post but only one addressed the issue of Fundamental Transformation of governance structure. That one (Anon 7:21) discussed a change that would abrogate a major tenant of the Constitution.

    In our view, Fundamental Transformation of governance structure requires NO change in the Constitution.

    The Constitution is fine, the problem is that implementation of the intent of the Constitution is thwarted by a failure of governance structure to evolve. This failure to evolve reflects a complete lack of understanding about the economic, social and physical changes that have taken place over the past 220 years.

    There has been a failure to respond to changes with a contemporary version of the governance structure that is framed by the Constitution because those in control benefit from Business-As-Usual. For this reason they deny the need for change providing only lame excuses such as โ€œtraditional values.โ€

    Groveton made a very important point in the comments:

    โ€œAmerica has overspent and/or under-taxed for too long.โ€

    He is absolutely right. Whether by taxes, fees or sweat equity, citizens individually and collectively must contribute more to the good of society and less to the greed and aggrandizement of a few at the top of the Ziggurat. If there is to be a sustainable trajectory for civilization there must be a new metric of citizen well being, a commitment to Balance and less focus on competition. There must also be a fair allocation of costs, especially location-variable costs.

    As we note in the post โ€œFROM CNN:โ€

    โ€œCitizens of the US of A cannot continue to expect to live off of natural capital, imported energy and loans from foreign investors.โ€

    We argue that the economy must be restructured so that citizens do not have to rely on Mass OverConsumption โ€“ specifically buying more Large, Private Vehicles and buying more Wrong-Size Dwellings in the wrong location as the way to end recessions and create a prosperous, sustainable society.

    A sustainable trajectory for civilization requires a steady state economy, not a consumption driven โ€œgrowthโ€ economy.

    In this regard:

    Small IS beautiful and Speed does kill.

    With respect to Small IS beautiful: The Winner-Take-All / Consumption-Uber-Alles / Supercapitalism trajectory is based on the assumption that big is better and biggest is most competitive. Global organizations may be super-competitive from a price perspective but not from a value / sustainability perspective. There are finite limits to competition.

    As we document in โ€œThe Shape of the Future,โ€ the first step toward a sustainable trajectory is to evolve functional human settlement patterns. That means a recognition that the New Urban Region is the Fundamental Building Block of contemporary society and that sustainable Regions are made up of Balanced Communities.

    Organizations โ€“ Enterprises, Agencies and Institutions โ€“ that are larger than Region in scope must become the focus of intelligent Transformation. That is impossible to do within the existing governance structure.

    At some point in the near future citizens will look at Global / Multi-National and dominate nation-state Enterprises, Agencies and Institutions the way tourists not look at the Pyramids:

    โ€œWhy did they do that?โ€

    โ€œHow did they get all those people to work so hard for the aggrandizement of a few?โ€

    Some have considered mega-Agencies with suspicion for a long time. More and more view mega-Enterprises as a problem, not a solution. Next up are mega-Institutions and MegaRegions.

    Credit where credit due: MainStream media is now raising a caution flag: The current bailout proposals will create more mega financial Enterprises, ones that are too big to fail e.g. Enterprise socialism. So far it is only a yellow flag. Why only a yellow flag when it should be obvious? For this answer see THE ESTATES MATRIX.

    With respect to Speed kills: The complexity of society and the rate of churn increases the befuddlement of the RHTCs and paralyzes the aging population. Research shows marketers that Forest Gump spends more when he is befuddled. We now have $700 million of befuddlement according to some Agency heads. Without Fundamental Transformation there will be a lot more and nothing with which to cover the debt.

    EMR


  • God, Jesus and Virginia’s $3 Billion Deficit

    Taking a break from the all-consuming matter of the six chaplains who resigned from the state police over the prohibition of mentioning Jesus in their invocations — in which the Northern Virginia Daily, the Washington Post, the Lynchburg News & Advance, and the Richmond Times Dispatch collectively devote 1,516 words to the subject — we turn our attention to the yawning, $3 billion state budget deficit.

    And what do we find in the newspapers today?

    A 123-word brief in the Times-Dispatch on Attorney General Bob McDonnell’s moves to rein in his expenses (plus 127 words more on the same topic in the WaPo); a 498-word article in the News & Advance on threats to mental health services; and a 410-word story in the Virginian-Pilot on how Gov. Timothy M. Kaine is looking at cuts to the state workforce and, next year, cuts to public school budgets. Grand total: 1,158 words.

    Judging by the volumes of ink dedicated to topics competing for readership, many Virginians aren’t remotely serious about the real problems confronting the commonwealth. Purely symbolic issues stemming from America’s raging culture wars are so much more diverting.

    Pardon me for dissenting, but a debate over whether or not state chaplains mention “God” but not “Jesus” in their invocations is stupefyingly not what we need right now.

    Implicit in the debate as it has been framed so far is that, while the commonwealth deems it unacceptable to mention “Jesus,” it is permissable to mention a single, monotheistic deity acceptable to Christians, Jews and Muslims. Ah, but would that not “offend” the polytheistic faith traditions like Hinduism and animism or the non-theistic traditions like Buddhism? Are the Abrahamic religious traditions privileged somehow? Let’s not even get started on the need for a follow-up ruling on how to treat the “Holy Ghost.” Perhaps we need to create an office of state theologian to sort it all out.

    Fortunately, some state officials remain undistracted by the questions currently consuming the State Police. Bob McDonnell announced yesterday that he is cutting his office spending by $3.8 million, or 9 percent, to do his part to address the state’s revenue shortfall. Economies include a hiring freeze, leaving currently vacant positions unfilled and eliminating some fax machines and phone lines.

    Additionally, McDonnell and his 10 executive attorneys are taking two percent reductions in their salaries, for a savings of $17,000. The AG also is giving up the leased 2005 Ford Explorer the state provides its attorney general, saving another $5,000 over the rest of his term, which expires in January 2010.

    The $3.8 million savings represents about 0.125% of the statewide budget shortfall, so there’s a loooong way to go. But McDonnell has a high-profile position, and he’s setting the right tone. Let’s just hope he’s not called upon to weigh in on the matter of how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.


  • Creeping Socialism in Virginia Agriculture

    The steady transformation of the United States economy from a predominantly market-driven economy to a rent-seeking economy proceeds apace. Nowhere is this more evident than in the agricultural sector where, despite rising commodity prices, government accounts for an increasing percentage of industry receipts.

    The chart above, showing government payments as a percentage of Virginia gross farm income, comes from a recently published report, “The Economic Impact of Agriculture and Forestry on the Commonwealth of Virginia.” (Click on the image to see a larger, clearer version of the chart.)

    Who, or what, benefits from this wealth transfer? Are consumers any better off? Are Virginia farms becoming more environmentally sustainable? Are agriculture products more competitive in the global economic arena? Are we at least contributing to Ray Hyde’s retirement fund? Across the board, the answer appears to be no.


  • Now, Now, Children, You Need to Learn to Get Along with One Another

    Let me see if I’ve got this straight. The Commonwealth Virginia is facing a $3 billion shortfall in its two-year budget, a hiring freeze has been put into place, and state agency chiefs face a deadline to submit contingencies for chopping spending by up to 15 percent. And what has Virginia’s newspapers all in a tizzy?

    Five members of the Virginia State Police chaplains program.

    The chaplains resigned after being told they must abstain from praying in the name of Jesus or Christ during department-sanctioned events involving the public. (I am following the account appearing in the Times-Dispatch, although the Washington Post, Virginian-Pilot and at least four other newspapers published their own stories.)

    It seems that state police Superintendent W. Steven Flaherty directed the agency’s 17 chaplains to begin delivering neutral or non-denominational prayers at public events such as trooper graduation ceremonies and annual memorial services for fallen officers. Five chaplains have resigned in protest.

    The state followed a predictable multi-cultural line. Flaherty said government agencies need to be “inclusive and respectful of the varied ethnicities, cultures and beliefs of our employees, their families and citizens at-large,” implying that prayers mentioning the name of Jesus are offensive to minority religious communities (or, more likely, militant atheist, ACLU types). For their part, the chaplains intemperately say the order disses Jesus. Said one: “What we have here is an attack on the name of Jesus, on the name of Christ. And I’m not going to sit back and just let it happen.”

    Oh, brother. There has got to be some way to recognize the fact that the overwhelming majority of people who practice a religion in Virginia are Christian while at the same time acknowledging that there are increasing numbers of Hindus, Muslims, Buddhists, Jews, Druids, Wiccans and animists who do not embrace Christianity. Are we so obtuse that we can’t work in good faith to accommodate the sensitivities of all? Is it really that difficult?

    As long as our culture celebrates aggrievement and victimhood, I suppose, it may well be impossible to accommodate everyone.


  • FROM CNN

    โ€œFed chief Ben Bernanke today told lawmakers the current financial crisis is rippling through the economy. He said it’s harder for businesses to get loans to create jobs, and harder for consumers to get loans to buy cars — hurting automakers and auto workers.โ€

    He could have added that โ€œit is harder for consumers to get loans to buy houses — hurting builders and construction workers…โ€

    As we noted in โ€œGood News Bad Reportingโ€ on 24 March what he and his predecessors should have been saying since at least 1973 is:

    โ€œCitizens of the US of A cannot continue to expect to live off of natural capital, imported energy and loans from foreign investors. The economy must be restructured so that citizens do not have to rely on buying more Large, Private Vehicles and buying more Wrong-Size Dwellings in the wrong location to be happy and safe.โ€

    Every bailout and every recovery that relies on buying more Large, Private Vehicles and more Wrong-Size Dwellings in the wrong location makes the prospect of a sustainable future less likely.

    EMR


  • A New Vision to Rally Around: Let’s Become the Algae Capital of the World!

    Virginians know more than most people about growing algae: The Chesapeake Bay periodically erupts with algae blooms that wreak havoc on the fragile estuarine ecology. While most of us think of algae as an environmental blight, Old Dominion University researchers want to convert the primitive life form into biodiesel fuel — and make Virginia’s waters a little cleaner in the process.

    Algal Farms Inc., on a 240-acre tract near the border of Surry and Prince George counties, currently has a working, 1-acre algae pond capable of growing enough microscopic, green algae to produce up to 3,000 gallons of biodiesel fuel per year. A second pond under construction has been designed to grow algae in wastewater effluent, stripping out harmful nutrients. If the pilot project is successful, dozens of ponds could be dug on the property and Algal Farms could become the first commercial facility of its kind in the country, reports the ODU news service.

    The vision is to truck in effluent daily from the Hopewell Regional Wastewater Treatment Facility. Though treated, the effluent will be rich in the nutrients that feed algae blooms in the Bay. After the algae are harvested, tanker trucks will haul it back to Hopewell, where it can be discharged into the James River cleaner than it would be otherwise.

    All that trucking of water sounds economically wasteful — think of all the gasoline consumed — but treating the water in algae ponds could scrub the water clean enough to avoid investing in expensive upgrades using conventional methods.

    Researchers are working out technical kinks, such as the ideal temperatures for growing the algae and developing efficient ways to harvest the slimy, oily organism.

    (Photo credit: Old Dominion University.)


  • Bacon Nation

    Another memorable feat in the annals of Bacondom…. From the Lewiston Tribune:

    Jolee Bacon really sizzles when it comes to hog-calling.

    The northern Idaho woman took first place Saturday in the competition at the Nez Perce County Fair.

    She has raised several champion pigs for 4-H contests. Bacon says she calls pigs every morning and night with her 9-year-old daughter, Jacey.

    Bacon won the crown over as she started her hog call with a few loud snorts and a long, drawn-out “sooey.”


  • FUNDAMENTAL TRANSFORMATION

    Citizens face a financial crisis triggered by:

    โ€ข Federal Agencies creating an over supply of cheap money, and

    โ€ข Failure of federal Agencies to carry out their responsibility to protect citizens โ€“ and the market economy โ€“ from wild, irrational exuberance โ€“ specifically the creation of speculative โ€œinvestment opportunitiesโ€

    What is the proposed solution?

    Create a new federal Agency and spend another $700-Billion dollars primarily to bail out those who caused the problem by making bad decisions.

    This solution will not build rational scaled dwellings in functional and sustainable locations.

    This solution will not create durable and sustainable infrastructure.

    This solution will only put off for a short while the day when citizens must face the need for Fundamental Transformation is human settlement patterns and Fundamental Transformation in governance structure. These Transformations are necessary if civilization is to achieve a sustainable trajectory.

    The current crisis has been in the making for 60 years. Nearly everyone has โ€œbenefittedโ€ in some way from the profligate squandering of natural capital, degrading the environment, putting the balance of nature at risk and creating dysfunctional human settlement patterns.

    However, just a few have really profited from what we term the orgy of Mass OverConsumption that exceeds the wildest dreams of any prior society. Now they will get bailed out while all suffer, none more than those at the bottom of the economic Ziggurat.

    The core responsibility of governance is the manage society and the current management strategy is not working. There must be Fundamental Transformation.

    Recently a colleague who reads our work said: โ€œYou say โ€˜There must be Fundamental Transformation of governance structureโ€™ but I am not sure what you mean.โ€ It turns out we needed just such a summary statement for a chapter in TRILO-G and so here it is:

    (Sunday is a slow day on the Blog and so I am putting it all here. Jim Bacon can move it to a separate jump page if that seems like a better idea to him.)

    FUNDAMENTAL TRANSFORMATION IN GOVERNANCE STRUCTURE

    The key to understanding the need for Fundamental Transformation in governance structure is to recognize that:

    A contemporary democracy with a market economy relies on educated citizens. A contemporary democracy cannot function long with quasi-citizens who are โ€œRunning As Hard As They Canโ€ and are “represented” by a few who occupy positions of power in political Institutions.

    These governance practitioners have worked themselves up in the political party duopoly and in practitioner elites to the point that they claim โ€“ and really believe โ€“ that they know what is best for their constituents, in spite of that citizens may believe. These governance practitioners have also perfected strategies to line their own pockets, cover their own tails / trails and โ€“ most importantly โ€“ how to blame someone from the other party if something goes wrong โ€“ which it always does.

    Three key principles for the evolution of functional governance are:

    โ€ข The level of authority / control / action must be at the level of impact. That is true for land use and land management, and it is also for education, public health, public safety, infrastructure โ€“ including transport, communications โ€“ and everything else that Agencies do to insure the health, safety and welfare of citizens.

    โ€ข There must be a functional level of governance for each of the organic components of human settlement. If there are impacts of Agency actions at multiple levels โ€“ and there almost always is multi-scale impact โ€“ then there must be shared responsibility. Functional governance does not occur in a system where the โ€œhighestโ€ โ€“ and the most remote โ€“ level of governance always controls. Currently, there is no governance structure at most of the levels โ€“ or scales โ€“ of impact with whom to share responsibility. For example, there is not yet a single New Urban Region-scale governance structure in the US of A.

    โ€ข The basic building block of contemporary civilization is the New Urban Region. For this reason, Regions โ€“ New Urban Regions (NUR) and Urban Support Regions (USR) โ€“ are the most important components in the evolution of functional governance structures. At the same time the evolution of the primary components of Regions โ€“ Alpha Communities โ€“ are also critical. In most cases, the existing municipalities (and counties) are not coterminous with any organic component of human settlement โ€“ especially Alpha Communities. In addition, the organic components of Alpha Communities are very important. This is true not just because of the need for functional governance at those scales of human activity. It is critical because citizens will not allow / tolerate functional Regional Agencies to evolve until they are very comfortable with the role and function of Cluster-, Neighborhood- and Village-scale governance structures.

    The current system of governance was created before contemporary economic, social and physical structures were even imagined. From the perspective of human settlement pattern the most important components of the existing governance structure are the Declaration of Independence (1775), The Northwest Ordinance (1787) and the Constitution (1789). The 1775 / 1787 / 1789 structure of governance was crafted for an emerging nation-state where five percent of the population was urban and ninety-five percent of the population was agrarian. It was also a society with slaves, no womenโ€™s suffrage and the vast majority of the citizens were illiterate. Add to this the fact that the Industrial Revolution was in its infancy and the importance of trade, technology and communication taken for granted today would have been incomprehensible to citizens and their leaders in 1790.

    The 1775 / 1787 / 1789 governance structure, as amended to date, is in many ways irrelevant to a society where:

    โ€ข Nine-five percent of the population is urban and only five percent is agrarian
    โ€ข Communication is instantaneous
    โ€ข Universal education and universal suffrage are overarching goals

    The federal constitution provides for protection of critical, overarching rights and responsibilities. However, the powers reserved to the states allows state governance structures to play an ever more damaging dog-in-the-manger role in governance structure.

    Even though the state as a level of governance grows less relevant with each passing day, states continue to avoid the absolute necessity of Fundamental Transformation of governance structure. This is especially true for those states that straddle one or more Regional (NUR or USR) boundaries. Almost all of the โ€˜Lower 48″ states straddle Regional boundaries. Seven states include parts of Regions that fall in more than one nation-state.

    Caught between:

    โ€ข Municipal (including county) governance practitioners who believe it is in their best interest to thwart the evolution of functional governance at and below the Alpha Community scale; and

    โ€ข State governance practitioners who believe it is in their best interest to thwart the evolution of functional governance at and above the Alpha Community scale โ€“ especially at the New Urban Region scale; and

    โ€ข Federal governance practitioners who believe it is in their best interest to thwart the evolution of functional governance at all scales;

    Citizens have no current voice or leverage to secure Fundamental Transformation of governance structure.

    Inspired by the impact of two World Wars fought over resources and territory, the citizens of the EU are SLOWLY evolving a mor
    e functional governance structure both โ€œUPโ€ from the nation-state level and โ€œDOWNโ€ from the nation-state level. They have a long way to go, but at least they have started.

    EMR


  • The Muslim Next Door

    Since 9/11, most American Muslims have taken a low profile, understandably afraid of provoking a backlash. But seven years later, Muslims in the Richmond region have decided the time has come to engage with the community — to go mainstream, as it were. To that end, the Virginia Muslim Coalition for Public Affairs hosted a Ramadan dinner Friday evening for members of the local media. Journalists from print, television and blogs (including yours truly) were in attendance.

    The Coalition estimates that some 12,000 to 15,000 Muslims live in Central Virginia, a mix of ethnicities including Middle Easteners, south Asians and African-Americans, with a smattering of “anglo” converts. For the most part, these people have practiced their religion quietly and have kept largely to themselves, with the result that their mostly Christian neighbors know very little about them.

    The Coalition’s website explains the reasons for the group’s “coming out” party.

    We believe that Muslims in America have to abandon the isolation mentality and resolve to become an integral part of the society, and proactively interact with its components. For that we need to become outward, and acquire social skills of interacting with people and cultivate relationships. It is both an individual and a collective effort. …

    The objective should be to let the society at large know through action what Islam is and who are the American Muslims. Our aim should be to serve the society and work for its betterment. We need to work hard and honestly for a better America: for America that is morally sound, more tolerant, more just in its domestic and foreign policies, free of poverty. We do establish programs and participate in any program that serves any good purpose (feeding the hungry, sheltering the homeless, helping the elderly and the handicapped, etc.)

    The Muslims that my wife and I met were exceptionally friendly, hospitable and eager to talk about their role in American society. One man, who has earned his citizenship, extolled the virtues of the United States as a nation of immigrants where, he said, he enjoys more freedom and opportunity than he did in his native Pakistan. He marvelled that, only 40 years after the end of legalized segregation, an African-American has a serious shot at becoming president.

    Another fellow stressed the commonality of all people. Muslims, Christians, Jews and others have the same priorities in life: to live in peace, have a good job, come home to the wife and children, and contribute to the community. As became clear to me when an imam explained the meaning of the Ramadan fast, Muslims, like the practitioners of other religions, struggle with their personal frailties to become better people, to follow the way of their God.

    The main stumbling point for some of the guests was the status of women in Islam. Nearly every Muslim woman in the room wore a hijab. (I noted only two younger women, students, who did not.) One hijab-clad young woman, a reporter with the Newport News Daily Press, addressed the group about the difficulty she faced reconciling the traditional values of her Muslim family and her ambition as a journalist.

    In the tension between tradition and modernity, Muslims have much in common with, say, orthodox Jews or old-school Mennonites. I found nothing particularly alien or threatening with the way our male hosts treated the women in their midst. Indeed, although Islam teaches women to be shy and reserved, many of the women I met struck me as well educated, articulate, passionate and independent minded as most American women I know. I sense that Muslim culture is already adapting to American mores.

    As long as Muslims sort out the challenges posed by Westernization peacefully and in accordance with the rule of law determined by our democratic system of government — as opposed to carving out exemptions for sharia law, as some have endeavored to do in Canada and Great Britain — then I welcome them with an open heart. The people I met last night will make wonderful Americans. They will weave another vibrant thread into the rich tapestry of the world’s only true “global nation,” a country where people are united not by race, ethnicity or religion but by their commitment to the idea of America.

    Update: Robin Farmer with the Times-Dispatch wrote a story in today’s Times-Dispatch about the charitable impulse in Richmond’s Muslim community — presumably an outgrowth of the Virginia Muslim Coalition’s outreach.


  • Energy Efficiency First

    By investing in energy-efficient technologies, the Commonwealth of Virginia can reduce its electricity needs by 20 percent, cut electric bills by $15 billion by 2025, and create 10,000 new jobs — the equivalent of bringing almost 100 new manufacturing facilities to the state — says a new report by the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy.

    And, oh, by the way, by cutting electricity consumption, Virginia can reduce pollution and, if you think global warming is a big issue, reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Read more in “Energizing Virginia: Efficiency First.”

    I don’t have time to dig into the report today, but thought it potentially important enough to post on the blog. Happy reading.


  • Apostate

    Patrick Michaels, former state climatologist, has been excluded from Virginia’s dialogue on climate change on the grounds that the science is settled. But is it really?

    Patrick Michaels has earned such a reputation as a Global Warming skeptic that many people who follow the climate change debate might be surprised at some of his opinions. Temperatures around the world are heating up, he saysโ€ฆ Just very slowly, far more slowly than the climate computer models are projecting. The former Virginia state climatologist also agrees that human activity probably has nudged temperatures a little higher than they would have in the absence of humans.

    But Michaels has a few things to say that would not make him welcome in, say, the Governorโ€™s Commission on Climate Change, which takes the global warming debate as settled and regards the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as the final authority on the subject. While he may be denied a forum at the climate change commission, Michaels did cut loose last week at the South Richmond Rotary Club, where I got to meet him.

    Michaels builds much of his case around the inconvenient truth that global temperatures have leveled off, or even cooled slightly, over the past 11 years. (Just because the New York Times doesn’t deem the trend noteworthy enough to report doesnโ€™t mean that itโ€™s not a fact. It is.) None of the climate models upon which the IPCC forecasts are based predicted the temperature stasis โ€“ they all forecast continuously rising temperatures. Said Michaels: โ€œNot one model can emulate the climate behavior since 1998.โ€

    Most inconvenient indeed.

    The stall in rising temperatures doesnโ€™t mean that global warming isnโ€™t real, Michaels says, but it does suggest that human influence on climate change is modest compared to natural variations in solar output and climate oscillations such as El Nino. The data certainly don’t conform to the alarming projections of those who call for radical overhauls in the economy on the grounds of impending apocalypse. Continue reading this column…


  • Pressure Builds to Halt Coal-Fired Electricity

    It’s guys like Christopher Flavin, president of the Worldwatch Institute, who make Gov. Timothy M. Kaine look like a moderate on energy and environmental issues. Speaking at the Commonwealth of Virginia Energy and Sustainability Conference in Richmond yesterday, Flavin said the U.S. should stop building coal-burning power plants because they contribute to global warming.

    “Starting right now, we should not be building any new coal-fired power plants,” said Flavin, as quoted by Rex Springston with the Times-Dispatch.

    Flavin made his comments at a time when Dominion Virginia Power is building a coal-burning power plant in Wise County to meet projected increases in electricity demand from its customers.

    Gov. Kaine’s Virginia Energy Plan sets a goal of cutting greenhouse gas emissions 30 percent from projected 2025 levels. But the Kaine administration wants to get there without scrapping the Wise power plant, which would create jobs and generate taxes in economically stressed Southwest Virginia. Coal will long be a part of Virginia’s energy mix, Steve Walz, Kaine’s top energy advisor, told Springston.

    “We will still be burning coal to make energy,” Walz said, “but we need to do it smarter and cleaner.”


  • Less Money for Roads — a Cause for Concern?

    The fiscal underpinnings of Virgnia’s road construction and maintenance program continue to deteriorate, John R. Layman, the state Department of Taxation’s chief economist, told the Commonwealth Transportation Board yesterday. “There’s no ‘up’ in this presentation right now,” he said, as reported by Peter Bacque with the Richmond Times-Dispatch.

    The state’s highway maintenance fund will see about $125 million less in each of the next two years, said Layman, and maintenance revenues are projected to fall by $739.9 million over the next six years. With reductions in other state tax revenues, Virginia will have about $300 million less annually for transportation. And that’s the best case, said Pierce R. Homer, secretary of transportation.

    Adjusted for inflation, the state’s motor fuels tax collections are the lowest they’ve been in 20 years, Layman said. The underlying cause is one that Bacon’s Rebellion has been warning about for years. When gas prices soar, people (a) drive less and consume less gasoline, and (b) shift to more fuel-efficient vehicles. Virginia’s transportation funding system, based primarily on the gasoline tax, is living on borrowed time.

    “Every time you see a [hybrid electric] Prius on the road, that’s somebody consuming less gas, but driving anyway,” Layman told the board.

    However, there could have been an “up” to the situation, if Layman had chosen to present it: People are driving less. When people drive less, there’s less traffic congestion — the very reason we need more construction dollars in the first place.

    Sales of new vehicles in the current 2009 fiscal year are expected to fall to levels not seen since the mid-1990s, Layman said. It would be interesting to see what’s happening to total Vehicle Miles Driven. If people are driving less, reducing the number of cars on the road at any point in time, then we may need to re-think road-building plans that are predicated on the outmoded assumption that traffic will continue to increase as it has for the past 25 years.