Bacon's Rebellion

Topics that have been the focus of past Bacon’s Rebellion Columns and Posts:

Item One:

The Wealth Gap was still getting wider in 2007 – the latest numbers from Federal Reserve.

Fundamental Transformation of the economic system (as well as Fundamental Transformation of the settlement pattern and Fundamental Transformation of the governance structure) or Collapse.

Item Two:

Working at home seems to lead to layoffs for Teleworkers.

Too bad that Telework was not more intelligently positioned as a strategy to support the evolution of Balanced Communities instead of a crutch for long commutes.

Item Three:

US Census says migration to “the Outer Suburbs nearly halts” in the National Capital Subregion

Eat your heart out NVTA and the 12.5 Percenters.

Item Four:

Commonwealth Transportation Board has set new regs that will discourage cul-de-sad subdivisions. A favorite topic of Jim Bacon’s

Only 35 years too late. EMR testified against them and in favor of inter-Cluster connections in 1973. Wake us when municipalities and the Commonwealth agree to retrofit / interconnect Orphan Subdivisions to create interconnected Clusters, Neighborhoods and Villages.

Item Five:

CNN has to updating it’s running tab of newspaper closings hourly.

Another Jim Bacon favorite: Who WILL gather and report the news? See THE ESTATES MATRIX

EMR

Pardon my lengthy absence from the blog — I’ve just returned from vacation in Cancun. I didn’t spend much time studying human settlement patterns — I was happy to spend most of my time in the Club Med compound, and there was nothing about Cancun, which was first developed only 30 years ago, that struck me as worth seeing. However, we did take one day trip to Chitzen Itza, the magnificent Maya ruins, and stopped briefly in the charming colonial town of Valladolid on the way back to Cancun.

WHY IS IT SO HARD TO UNDERSTAND LOCATION VARIABLE COSTS?

EMR is awaiting Groveton’s examples of same house, same builder prices to support his assertions on THE ANATOMY OF AN ILLUSION post.

In the meantime, Groveton has forgotten that EMR has outlined homework for Groveton to use to prove to himself the validity of location-variable cost calculations.

Before we start lets be sure everyone understands that it is not Groveton’s fault that he does not pay his location-variable costs. No one does for reasons spelled out in The Shape of the Future. The same is true for the full cost of air travel – greatly subsidized by all tax payers and by all citizens but that is another story.

First EMR is glad that he did not say that Groveton could not afford to live where he does if he had to pay the location-variable costs. EMR said Groveton would not have made the location decision if he knew the true costs and thought he would have to pay that cost. EMR stands with that.

Based on his 8:30 AM comment of 14 March, Groveton probably could afford the true cost but he does not pay that cost and neither do his Clustermates and they may or may not be able to afford those costs.

In the 8:30 AM post Groveton said:

“OK –

“It’s tax time in the Old Dominion. I pay about $225,000 in state and local taxes. Not federal and I’m not even counting sales taxes, etc. Just plain old income and real estate taxes. I live on a 7 acre lot. I drive about 10,000 miles per year – total (commute and errands). My street is owned by me and the neighbors. We pay to pave it, plow it, repair it, etc. I have my own septic system and well water. I have five sons – one is in college (out of state), three go to private schools and one is in the Fairfax County system.”

“Now … just one more time … please explain how I am not covering my full costs.”

It is clear that Groveton would pay the same state and municipal taxes if lived in a dwelling that was taxed the same amount REGARDLESS OF WHERE he lived in the Commonwealth and the municipal jurisdiction. So by definition, not much of the information provided gives a hint of total location-variable costs.

In general taxes one pays DO NOT go to support location-variable costs. If one could reallocate payments to the location-variable cost categories Groveton, who pays $225,000 might come close,but on average those in his Cluster, Neighborhood and Village do not come close.

There is further information from Groveton’s past posts that provide additional insights:

Groveton says he “lives Great Falls.” By that we suspect he means that he lives in the 22066 Zip Code. (More on Zip Code data problems in a future post.)

Groveton also implied that he is in the Difficult Run watershed and that this stream is close to where he lives. That means he lives in the far southeast (most Urban) corner of Zip 22066. His total location-variable costs will be lower here than in “Great Falls Proper” which is north and west of the Walker Road / Georgetown Pike Cross Roads (Village Centre). Places such as Richland Forest, Tally Ho or Beach Mill Downs to pick three names at random off the map

Now about those costs:

The first thing to do is to pick a nice house on Lake Audubon or Lake Thoreau that has about the same market value as his house.

The following will remind Groveton that EMR suggested an exercise to get a grip on location variable costs.

Start with electricity. How much is the cost of generation, transmission and distribution of a kilowatt to Groveton’s vis the alternative (capital cost and monthly delivery). Be sure to figure in line loss for low voltage transmission, the singe most clear demonstration of location-variable costs.

There are 40 plus or minus services that vary in cost by location that are, by-in-large now charged on a flat fee basis.

The original calculations were based on 1,000, 4 bedroom, two car garage Single Household Detached Dwelling Units (a nominal Neighborhood) located on 10,000 acres in four different patterns:

10 acre lots

functional but scattered Dooryards

functional but scattered Clusters

A functional Neighborhood.

It was assumed this Neighborhood was adjacent to another Neighborhood but the location- variable cost savings at the Village, Community, Subregion and Region were NOT calculated.

The best available cost were used and yes there were changes for water and sewer licencing, monitoring, and testing and off site impacts based on charges made in other Regions.

There were assumptions about the cost of bussing children, the cost of mail delivery, parcel delivery, telephone service, etc.

The data was collected and refined over a four year period. Two years after The Shape of the Future was published, and no one who bothered to take the time to understand the calculations challenged the assumptions or the numbers the data was recycled when EMR moved to from Inside the Clear Edge around the Core of the Subregion to a location inside the Clear Edge around a potentially Balanced but Disaggregated Village.

In 2008, some of the costs will be higher, some will change completely – cell phones use for example — but overall the 10 X Rule would stand up quite well.

Groveton said: “This is BS. The facts don’t support the conjecture.”

This is not BS, it may appear to be inconsistent with the experience of those who do not bother to take the time to understanding human settlement patterns and location-variable costs.

In the same string of comments, TMT said that “Not EMR” was smoking something AND inhaling.

Actually “Not EMR” really does understand, he / she just can not bring themselves to admit it, and so they work to obscure and obfuscate reality.

TMT also said: “A semi-rural Great Falls is the best friend of county residents.”

It would be it the residents paid their fair share of the location-variable costs.

There is no reason for scattered Urban land uses outside the logical location of the Clear Edge around the Core of the Subregion – UNLESS THEY ARE IN COMPONENT OF A BALANCED COMMUNITY, in which case they would be within a Clear Edge of that Alpha Community.

EMR

IN TIMES OF IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE, ILLUSIONS GROW LIKE KUDZU. BUT WHY DO THEY CONTINUE TO SURVIVE WHEN THE ECONOMY IS SHRINKING – AS IT MUST – AND AMONG CITIZENS SHOULD KNOW BETTER?

SuperMassDenial cannot be the whole answer.

One of the most frustrating aspects of working to create an understanding of functional and dysfunctional human settlement patterns is dealing with those who blithely claim that “the facts” support their position when they must know at some level that they are absolutely wrong.

It is one thing when the advocate of an Illusion if someone is heavily invested in an unfortunate decision. It is another for a person who claims to be young enough to know better continues to chan the mantra of dysfunction.

Case in point: The comment of NovaMiddleMan (NMM) that “the vast majority” support scattered Urban dwellings stated a comment on the DISAPPOINTMENT CUBED post of 18 February. Here is part of that post (in italics) with comments.

At 6:23 PM NMM said”

“I agree the blog format is not the best way to communicate.”

Great! An area of agreement to build on! In fact blogging may be the WORST way to communicate because it allows rabid defense of ridiculous positions.

“I can sense your frustration about the lack of a common nomenclature.”

But then why do you continue to use Core Confusing Words? Do you understand that continuing to use Core Confusing Words like “suburban” makes no sense, literally?

…………

“The bottom line however is that the data suggests a vast majority reject your viewpoint…”

Since EMR’s position is the market favors more Balanced settlement patterns, this must mean that “the vast majority” support unBalanced settlement patterns.

NMM must know there is no data to support his statement. Why does he make this statement?

The numbers are clear 87.5 percent (1980 to 1990 data upon which the 87.5 Percent Rule is based) did NOT choose scatteration at the Dooryard and Cluster scale, even when the choices were limited. There has never been less than 80 percent of the market who favor Balanced over scatteration IF GIVEN A CHOICE regardless of income. Twenty percent is not “a vast majority” it is an uninformed minority.

NMM has not shown one case where the same unit by the same builder sells for LESS in a more Balanced component of human settlement than it sells for a less Balanced or unBalanced, monoculture component.

The reason he has not cited the data is that it does not exist. From the 70s to the 90s there was a $100,000 difference between more Balanced vs less Balanced / unBalanced contexts.

NB: IF the TOTAL cost of location variable costs were assessed, the scattered site (unBalanced) dwelling would cost far more but that is not the case under current conditions.

The bottom line is that the market pays a premium for a more Balanced locations, period.

The market proves that NMM’s view “The American Dream” is sales hype when citizens ARE GIVEN A CHOICE.

[NB: in a later comment in this string, NMM admitted he was basing his comment on the PEW survey noted in the DISAPPOINTMENT CUBED post. This survey was profiled because of the gross Vocabulary confusion and is not a basis for identifying informed opinions. Using this survey to establish preference has all the validity of going to a used car lot and asking the first 100 tire kickers: “If price and maintenance was not an issue would you rather have a Hyundai or a Mercedes?”]

To further examine the blanket statement: “a vast majority reject your viewpoint” vis a vis residential settlement patterns – that is that the vast majority prefer scattered, unBalanced settlement patterns as opposed to more Balanced settlement patterns. Here is a two step exercise for those who want to understand the basics:

It is economically impossible for ‘a vast majority’ to own a Single Household Detached Dwelling. That is because given a normal distribution of disposable income in any First World nation-state from 60 to 95 percent of the population (depending on the state of the economy and the allocation of true costs) COULD NOT AFFORD a Single Household Detached Dwelling.

Let us assume that, fearing an uprising from ‘a vast majority’ who favor scatteration, it was decided to pay a housing stipend to every Household so ‘the vast majority’ could afford to pay for ‘what they wanted’ and they did in fact buy The American Dream per NMM.

Under those conditions it would be physically (to say nothing of economically) impossible to provide services, especially – but not limited to – Mobility and Access.

The following phrase was separated out from the rest of NMM’s assertion because these last four words make the statement into a pure red herring.

“… of urban dense living …”

EMR does not advocate “dense” Urban living. EMR does not advocate density for density’s sake. EMR advocates exactly what the market finds most attractive – Balance, especially at the Alpha Village- and Alpha Community scale.

“and prefer a ‘sub’urban lifestyle …”

Intentional use of a Core Confusing Word such as ‘suburban’ is always a red herring. The user must define what they mean by “suburban” using lot size, dwelling size, persons per acre density and other metrics for each component scale of settlement pattern from the Unit to at least the Alpha Community (aka, lowest six components in the New Urban Region Conceptual Framework.)

“close to a major metropolitan area.”

If “the vast majority” lived some where else, there would be no “metropolitan” area only scattered “sub”Urban land uses.

Even more important “close to” indicates this “vast majority” lives OUTSIDE major metropolitan areas. Since the majority of all residents live INSIDE major metropolitan areas this must be “the vast majority” of the minority?

“Those are the facts and that is what the market has demanded for years …”

As noted above, that is not so. The MARKET provides a premium for well located units in more Balanced components.

“… and still continues to demand.”

Even the marginal “demand” has slipped as the cost of dysfunction has become more painful.

“I would also add again a majority also prefer …”

“Prefer” if they believe they are among the few who can afford the total price. The larger the Region, the higher the price.

“… and demand access to automobiles and driving.”

There was never a time when driving would provide mobility for more than 50 percent of the population and that number is shrinking as the population ages and the cost rises and / or the ability to pay shrinks.

“That is not an ideological hobby horse those are the facts on the ground.”

Sorry, it is an Illusion AND a ideological hobby horse..

“I guess in all seriousness I question what you hope to achieve through this medium.”

Learn if there is a way to cure Illusions and to understand the perspective of those gripped by Myth.

“I think after several months or years most of us understand what you are trying to do.”

Apparently not since NMM has not yet gotten a handle on EMR’s perspective.

“However you seem to fail to understand the reality of the situation.”

See above.

“The world is not a sandbox you can control at will.”

Another red herring. NMM will not find a bigger advocate of the market, so long as it is a well informed market, that is citizens ca
n make decisions that are in fact in their individual and collective best interest. What is it that the vast majority would choose, if they had a choice and understood the consequences of their actions.

“Like it or not the population has rejected and continues to reject your vision for the future.”

See above.

Without a Fundamental Transformation of the governance structure (and the economic structure) there will be no Fundamental Transformation of the human settlement pattern and thus no potential for a sustainable trajectory of civilization.

The democracies with market economies are an impossibility without all three Fundamental Transformations.

As luck would have it more and more are discovering this reality. See Lifestyle preferences are shifting by Bill Cunniff in the 27 Feb Sun-Times. For a summary of the marketing success of those who claim to sell dwellings in more Balanced environments subscribe to New Urban News.

EMR

The cost of infrastructure to support functional human settlement patterns.

In the comments following the 27 February MORE VOCABULARY post, Larry Gross made a very good observation:

Current methods of treating sewerage adsorbs a lot of energy and are very expensive.

Treating sewerage and other human waste is a cost of contemporary technology-driven Urban civilization. The cost of heath care, safety, education, shelter and access are also very high. Further, the real total cost is much more than is now being paid. That is why the infrastructure to supply these services is deteriorating.

All the essential services could be far more efficient if there were functional human settlement patterns but they would will still cost a lot more than is currently being invested if citizens are to have anything like the level of health, education, safety, shelter and access that is expected in a technologically advanced society.

The results of conventional sewerage treatment prove that what is now being spent is not effective. Humans are polluting the ground water, streams, estuaries and the oceans with their waste. That means a lot more has to be spent to get it right – even with functional settlement patterns, new technology and more efficient operation.

By the citation Larry posted (“Yellow is the New Green” a 27 January story about land application strategies for sewerage in China) he is suggesting there must be a better way.

This may be just another wan attempt to justify scatteration of Urban land uses by a died-in-the-wool 12.5 Percenter but EMR takes it as an attempt to make a constructive suggestion.

Inside the Clear Edge.

EMR has never been a fan of Big Pipe systems.

There are no Regional systems in the US of A but the large SubRegional systems do not have good track records for on supplying water or treating sewerage. It is also clear that the Agencies have been major contributors to dysfunctional settlement patterns.

The multi-Community water and sewer Agencies and Enterprises are rewarded (prestige, pay, etc.) for “growth.” This has led them to historically support higher per capita use and to expand their service to areas not well suited for Urban development. Like highway Agencies that have not negative feedback from dysfunctional settlement patterns, building more is “good” for the water and sewer Organizations if not for citizens or the environment. The examples of bad practice from the Fairfax Water Authority, the Washington Suburban Sanitary Commission, The Washington Aqueduct, etc. fill volumes.

Like Hospitals and Colleges, every Alpha Community should have a Community Water and Sewer Agency that is directly responsible to the citizens of the Community, not Agencies that serve parts of Communities or parts of many Communities.

One overarching problem with traditional Big Pipe systems is mixing clean water with waste and in many cases adding storm water to the same pipes. There is no way to efficiently treat that flow.

When citizens get serious about rebuilding the Urban fabric, systems that recycle blue, green and grey water and use waste to generate energy can be applied at the Cluster and Neighborhood scales (MIUS) within a Community system. That is if there are still resources available to support restructuring given the current trajectory.

There are many ways to cut costs before there is fundamental change in settlement patterns. Some of them involve charging those who dispose of exotic compounds that drive up the cost of treatment – including kitchen garbage disposal units – that make the waste more complex than human waste that has already been digested.

Outside the Clear Edge

There are many excellent strategies to treat human waste in Non-Urban contexts.

The implication that these systems are “cheap” or intrinsically better than Urban solutions or that these systems are a way to justify scatteration of Urban land uses is a terrible Illusion driven by a number of Myths.

Some of Non-Urban waste system costs can be offset by “sweat equity” in both construction and operations but not many like the idea of digging ditches or carrying out pails of night soil.

When the cost of a sophisticated system – including the energy to operate the system – and the cost of inspection and maintenance is totaled up, the real cost is as high per capita as Urban systems – sometimes higher.

Why are there energy costs? Those microbes work for free but only in certain temperature ranges and only with the correct levels of oxygen.

Why must there be inspection and maintenance costs? To insure there are no off-site impacts beyond that of a well managed, state of the art Alpha Community System.

On the general topic of infrastructure, Bruce Katz of Brookings gave a very good talk at the National Governors Conference Winter Meeting in late February. “Strengthening Our Infrastructure for a Sustainable Future.” Not a thing he said was not on target. It was what Bruce he did NOT say – he never mentioned human settlement patterns and it is not possible to have functional infrastructure and dysfunctional settlement patterns.

EMR

Wrong Size House in the Wrong Location

There is a lot of loose talk by 12.5 Percenters about how the ‘housing crisis’ is all about California and Nevada.

Today’s numbers: Virginia underwater mortgage rate is 19.6 percent. That is about one in five.

As luck would have it, Virginians are Over-housed. There is plenty of room for second and third dwellings in well located structures.

And there is plenty of room for chickens and goats in the walk-out basements of McMansions on one, two, five and ten acre lots that the 12.5 Percenters love.

The data shows a pattern: the more dysfunctional the settlement pattern, the higher the rate of underwater mortgages.

Good locations are still holding their own because even if the borrower is “subprime,” the dwelling is not and ‘someone’ always needs a dwelling in a good location.

If Agencies and Enterprises had started to allocate the fair, equitable cost of location-variable expenses when the problem was first articulated and the data was first available (BEFORE the 2000’s bubble) then the Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis would not have become the ‘housing crisis’ that led to the Global Financial Meltdown.

You could have read all about it on the Original Bacon’s Rebellion.

EMR

A Phrase for Larry’s Lexicon and a Cure for Major Mortgage Bail Out Defect

1) We are a bit late on this but here is a phrase for Larry’s Lexicon: “Green Sprawl:” An energy efficient industrial, commercial or residential building in a dysfunctional location. It is now in the lexicon of MainStream Media. A recycled Wal*Mart with ground effects heating / cooling and a solar array on the roof (See “Big Box Reuse”) or a LEED McMansion on a five acre lot or a 10 acre horse farm.

We have to sort out if the use of a Core Confusing Word (“sprawl”) in a phrase that is clearly defined is a Core Confusing Phrase.

2) Use of “Location Efficient Mortgage” criteria for any residential mortgage bailout would cure a major problem with giving money to those who made bad decisions. The phrase is defined, there are criteria. Implementation of a location efficient mortgage criteria would solve a major problem with the criteria-less mortgages consumed by Fanny and Freddie.

Location efficient mortgage criteria and prosecution for fraud at every stage of the development process from the original raw land sale to the final loan signing including all participating agents would save the public $ billions.

EMR

On Jim Bacons post “The Coming Green Boom – and Bubble” EMR noted something like the following (with corrected spelling and clarified intent):

Green Technology and the investment in Green Technology will just be another Bubble and Bust too without:

Fundamental Transformation in human settlement patterns;

Fundamental Transformation in governance structure, and;

Fundamental Transformation in the economic system.

And THAT means there must be a Fundamentally new way to get citizens the information they need to make INTELLIGENT decisions in the marketplace and in the voting booth. See THE ESTATES MATRIX

There are a number of good observations following Jim Bacon’s post and they caused EMR to give further thought to the topic:

There MAY be a Green Technology Boom.

There MAY be great future benefits from Green Technology “Breakthroughs” that are not now even imagined.

There is no evidence at this point that there will be any “Breakthroughs” with more substance than cold fusion – or is it fission? Anyway, cold.

What IS known is that whatever form Green Technology takes, is will cost a lot of money, especially in the area of energy generation, transmission and distribution. There is NOTHING as cheap as digging up (and burning up) natural capital – unless nation-states and Regions have to fight wars to get it.

What is also known is that there are already a lot of expensive ways to replace cheap energy and there are millions of things to sell that will consume resources and occupy time – if citizens had time or money.

(For the record: Those things will not solve the Helter Skelter Crisis or the Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis and even FREE energy for Large, Private Vehicles will not solve the Mobility and Access Crisis.)

The bottom line is that after 35 years of widening the Wealth Gap and the inevitable Global Financial Meltdown (Bust of the Household, Enterprise and Agency deficit spending bubble) there are not a lot of folks who can afford expensive energy or expensive Green Technology.

That means it will not be attractive to invest in Green Technology because the market will be small.

Those at the top of the Ziggurat – those who could afford expensive Green Technology – have demonstrated over and over that they would rather continue to ride on the Tiger because they make more money faster that way.

Over the past 35 years the US of A could have lead the World in creating a lean, educated, happy human population with an ever smaller ecological footprint and thus a sustainable trajectory for civilization.

The US of A has “prospered” by creating an obese, opinionated, antagonistic, human population with huge Mass OverConsumption driven ecological footprints. The growth in consumption, the growth in population and the growth in the Wealth Gap are not sustainable.

The net result of attempting to “enjoy” consumption based “prosperity” within dysfunctional human settlement patterns:

Over half the population is losing ground – economically and socially.

Most of the rest are Running As Hard As They Can and have no time or energy to understand why most of the benefit of increased productivity of the 95 percent is going to the top 5 percent of the Ziggurat.

The US of A ranks at the top in consumption and in an also ran in education, equity, health and happiness.

The Elephant Clan and the Donkey Clan have broken “politics” and gamed the governance structure so that one or the other – but not someone with new ideas – gets 50.5 percent of the vote.

They have done this by promising that a vote for their “principles” will allow everyone to continue to live a life based on Myth – forever.

Both the Clans try to out promise one another. It is all about short-term benefit / immediate gratification and nothing about cost long-term / cumulative cost or a Balance of rights with responsibilities.

Add to this the facts that:

The NRA (aka, gun lobby) and the individual rights advocates have armed and primed the “Deer Hunting with Jesus” crowd.

The alcohol lobby, the NRA and conflict generating agitators have armed and primed bros in the hood.

Let us not spend time creating another bubble to bust over Green Technology. Green Technology would be nice but what has surfaced so far is Green Greed. Even pure Green Technology is not what is needed.

How about creating a sustainable trajectory which requires:

Fundamental Transformation in human settlement patterns;

Fundamental Transformation in governance structure, and;

Fundamental Transformation in the economic system.

And, of course a Fundamentally new way to get citizens the information they need to make INTELLIGENT decisions in the marketplace and in the voting booth.

EMR