Bacon's Rebellion

  • Prediction: General Assembly Elections*

    Posted on

    by

    Robin Beres

    by D. J. McGuire

    Election Day is five months out; early voting begins in a little more than three months. Primary Day isn’t for another week and a half. Still, yours truly is ready to make my first asterisk-heavy prediction on who will win the General Assembly in November. The prediction is based on assumptions driven by current facts. Should those facts change, the assumptions and the prediction change. Hence the asterisk(s). The prediction itself comes from my belief that the assumptions will hold up.

    The GOP Case for Optimism
    I begin with what happened in 2021 (Republican +7 House of Delegates seats, flipped chamber), and examine the differences from then to now that would impact the 2023 result. For the Republican Party of Virginia, two factors argue for a change in their favor.

    First, Glenn Youngkin has gone from largely unknown candidate to minimally successful governor. That change is impactful: no incumbent governor of Virginia has seen their party suffer a genuine mid-term loss in 20 years — and even that — Mark Warner losing a State Senate seat – came as he picked up a few delegates in 2003. To find a governing party suffering serious losses in a Virginia mid-term, you have to go back to 1991.

    To some extent, many of Youngkin’s predecessors had the advantage of a politically unpopular foil in the White House. That said, so does Youngkin (538), which is the second factor in the GOP’s favor.

    Assuming Youngkin can maintain his approval rating at about 50 percent (probably) and keep his party together (not so likely, see below), he would expect to keep the House of Delegates under GOP control at least. (more…)

  • Jeanine’s Memes

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    From The Bull Elephant

  • School Boards, Model Policies and Parental Rights in the Raising of Children

    Posted on

    by

    sherlockj

    by James C. Sherlock

    The Virginia Beach School Board will vote tomorrow.

    The announced subject will be transgender rights in schools.

    It is couched by The Virginian-Pilot as the school board defending transgender students against “unnecessarily cruel policies.“  As opposed, one supposes, to necessarily cruel policies.

    The local paper refers, of course, to the Youngkin administration’s “Model Policies” on the subject. Which, like their predecessors from the Northam administration, are not mandatory, so need not be debated at all.

    The School Board debate is at its core constitutional.

    You will note that the Youngkin Model Policies linked its constitutional interpretations to court decisions. The Northam version did not. Northam’s just asserted what the constitution meant. Must have been an oversight.

    My take:

    • Families are responsible for shaping the values, beliefs, and personalities of children;
    • Government is required to protect children from abuse and neglect. But government schools are not allowed to substitute their judgements on values and beliefs for those of the families;
    • They are most certainly not permitted to define parental moral or political disagreements with school personnel as emotional abuse at home. Or as harassment of government schools or teachers;
    • And government schools, absent evidence of abuse or neglect, must never be allowed to substitute their own moral judgments for those of parents.

    But that’s just me. Not a lawyer. (more…)

  • Bacon Meme of the Week

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

  • Scandal in Plain Sight – Virginia’s Failed Regulation of Law-Avoiding Nursing Home Owners

    Posted on

    by

    sherlockj

    by James C. Sherlock

    One of the most important and heart-wrenching decisions families make for their elderly loved ones is whether they are able to keep them in their homes as they get older and sicker.

    Sometimes that is not feasible for a long list of reasons in each case.

    More than 30,000 Virginians live in nursing homes.

    Both the federal government and Virginia regulate them.  The Virginia Department of Health, for both the Commonwealth and the federal government, inspects.

    We should be able to expect patients to receive at least basic standards of care. A high percentage in Virginia have not .

    In a five-star system, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) rates 98 of Virginia’s 289 nursing homes at one star – defined as much below average. More than a third.

    Nationwide, only the worst 20 percent receive a one-star rating.

    The last time I reported, in October of 2021, those figures were 54 one-star facilities out of 288. Nineteen percent.  So some of our nursing homes have gotten precipitously worse.

    The ratings are backward-looking a couple of years, so the measured declines discussed here did not start recently.   By definition of the way that Medicare compiles records and assigns scores, some have been bad for a long time.

    People have suffered and died from the lack of proper care and effective oversight. (more…)

  • Ghouls

    Posted on

    by

    Bob Rayner

    photo by Bob Rayner

    by Bob Rayner

    Grave dancing is always an ugly activity that reveals more about the character of the dancer than of the deceased. It is, without exception, an indicator of astounding deficits in compassion, empathy, and simple human decency. Its recent ascent should disappoint all kind souls.

  • Pat Robertson, 1930-2023

    Posted on

    by

    Robin Beres

    by Kerry Dougherty

    To those of us who live in Virginia Beach, Pat Robertson, who died yesterday at the age of 93, was more than just a religious broadcaster who ran for president in 1988.

    He was a man who built a television network, a university, a major charity, and a law school in our city. His enterprises provided good jobs to thousands of folks and his international evangelization put Virginia Beach in the spotlight.

    Yet politics was also in Pat’s blood. He was, after all, the son of a prominent U.S. Senator, A. Willis Robertson, a conservative Democrat who served in that chamber from 1946 to 1966. When Pat stunned pundits by finishing second in the Iowa caucuses, he established evangelical Christians as a powerful bloc in the Republican Party.

    Pat Robertson was loathed by the left and by most members of the media. Yet reporters found him curiously addictive and waited for him to say something they thought was kooky on The 700 Club so they could mock him and invite late-night talk show hosts to join in.

    There were eye rolls and outright groans whenever the local newspaper had to cover Robertson. You see, the media instinctively distrusts most Christians and almost all Republicans.

    Trust me on this one. I was on the inside for decades. (more…)

  • RGGI Reg Repealed, But RGGI Tax Returns to Bills

    Posted on

    by

    Steve Haner

    The states currently in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative tax compact.  Put an X through Virginia as of January 2024? Pennsylvania remains covered with a question mark.

    by Steve Haner

    Virginia’s Air Pollution Control Board voted Wednesday to remove Virginia from the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, keeping Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin’s promise to eliminate the related carbon tax that has been imposed on electricity ratepayers under RGGI since January 2021.

    The bad news is the tax itself won’t disappear until at the earliest September 2024.  Collection from customers has been delayed.  A separate bill surcharge to collect the tax, imposed and then removed by Dominion Energy Virginia, is likely to be imposed again as of September 1 of this year.  A State Corporation Commission hearing examiner has recommended approval of Dominion’s petition to collect another $350 million or so from its customers.

    The surcharge is still being calculated, as there remains some dispute over what the full costs are.  The warmer than normal winter reduced electricity demand and required fewer RGGI credits.  The surcharge should settle somewhere above $4 per 1,000 kilowatt hours of usage.  In effect, as the hearing examiner notes, Dominion is seeking to collect 17 months of RGGI allowance costs in just 12 months. (more…)

  • Political Correctness More Important than Accuracy in News Reports of Slaying

    Posted on

    by

    Bob Rayner

    by Kerry Dougherty

    Is it too much to ask the news media to put accuracy ahead of their political agendas?

    We asked this in March when activists were more obsessed with pronouns than the fact that the trans Nashville school shooter, who killed three little kids and three adults, was occasionally referred to as a female. That’s what she was, by the way.

    Now this from the local newspaper:

    This is not true. The accused is a biological man. The slain man’s son. (more…)

  • Town of Bedford Honors June 6 D-Day

    Posted on

    by

    Robin Beres

    by Scott Dreyer

    World War II saw conflict across Europe, North Africa, Asia, and the oceans of the world. However, the charming Central Virginia town of Bedford is the site of the famous D-Day Memorial. Bedford sent 35 men to land at Normandy, France.

    The memorial honors the 19 local boys who died on June 6, 1944, in the heroic struggle to liberate Europe from Nazism. Before the end of that campaign, four more Bedford boys lost their lives. Bedford’s mind-numbing 65 percent death rate means that on a per capita basis, the town sacrificed more residents than any other American community in that epic fight between good and evil.

    Because of the fog of war and poor communication then, horrific news of those casualties did not begin to come into Bedford until July 17th, a month and a half after D-Day, when the first 11 deaths were reported. Reports of the other deaths trickled in over the following days and weeks.

    Notably, since telegraph messages then were sent from town to town, news of Bedford’s losses first came through the Western Union telegraph office in Roanoke. One Roanoker had the terrible task at work of sending these five words to the Bedford office: “Good morning, we have casualties.”

    “The youngest one was just about to turn 21 and the oldest was 30,” said Linda Parker, co-director of the Company A Bedford Boys Tribute Center.

    Gov. Glenn Youngkin spoke at Tuesday’s commemoration (June 6th) at the D-Day Memorial to honor the 79th anniversary of that event. Remembering the sacrifices of those who went before, the Town of Bedford has festooned the lampposts along Main Street with banners featuring the names and photos of those Bedford Boys who never made it home from WWII, along with U.S. and French flags, since the site of the landings, the Normandy beaches, are in Northwest France.

    As our state and nation face today’s many challenges, we can take hope and encouragement from the bravery, patriotism, and sacrifice of those who have gone before.

    Republished with permission from The Roanoke Star.

  • Federal Flood Insurance Needs to Cover Its Costs

    Posted on

    by

    sherlockj

    Flooded street in Norfolk during Hurricane Sandy

    by James C. Sherlock

    Virginia is suing FEMA over its new risk rating methodology for the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP).

    Virginia’s suit says that the new methodology:

    doesn’t recognize many mitigation efforts, nor does it clearly explain how rates are calculated based on mitigation efforts. This means that (Virginia’s) mitigation efforts don’t result in lower premiums for policyholders.

    The suit does not state that the rates are not high enough. Which they are not.

    • The costs of repair and rebuilding have soared;
    • Sea level rise combined with subsidence is both measured and forecast to increase flood hazards on Virginia’s coasts.

    The rest of the country does not “owe” a discount on flood insurance to those of us that choose to live in flood-prone areas.

    Rate payers need to cover the costs of the NFIP, including building a reserve – like a real insurance program. (more…)

  • VPM Reporter Digs Into Power For Tomorrow

    Posted on

    by

    Steve Haner

    Ben Paviour at Virginia Public Media has fleshed out additional substantial details on the political activities of Power for Tomorrow, a utility advocacy group with major funding from Dominion Energy Virginia.

    Questions asked and issues hinted at by this report on Bacon’s Rebellion now have more clarity.

    Yes, Paviour found quite a few Virginia incumbent legislators are being supported by the group, not just Senators George Barker (D) and Siobahn Dunnavant (R).  Other beneficiaries include Senator Joe Morrissey (D), Senator Scott Surovell (D), Delegate Delores McQuinn (D), Delegate Buddy Fowler (R) and Delegate Emily Brewer (D).  Most but not all are involved in party nomination contests.

    Yes, there is a strong correlation with the people receiving support from Power for Tomorrow not receiving support from Clean Virginia, with the exception of Surovell.  He has received help from both.  Along with the mailings mentioned before, Power For Tomorrow is also spending on digital advertising (as Clean Virginia also does.)

    Paviour also found the group is active in South Carolina, another Dominion Energy state, attacking a proposal that South Carolina utilities be forced to join a regional transmission organization.  He turned up the 2021 IRS 990 report for “Power 4 Tomorrow,” but of course that is now out of date.  The IRS reports for these groups lag badly.

    The key issue that somebody needs to keep watching is how all of this is reported – or not – in campaign finance disclosures.  No question now, these are political expenses intended to influence an election.  Period. Power for Tomorrow still only shows up as having a registered lobbyist on the Virginia Public Access Project database, with no mention of any campaign donations.  That is the point where this may be stretching Virginia law and should irritate voters who care about transparency.

    — SDH

  • New Style of Computer Adaptive Testing for Math and Reading SOLs in Spring 2023

    Posted on

    by

    sherlockj

    by James C. Sherlock

    End-of-year SOLs will be released this summer and are much anticipated to see how well kids are recovering from enforced shutdowns during COVID.

    Some readers know the current testing system like the backs of their hands. But nearly all of us took standardized tests in school in which everyone took the same tests with the same questions.

    That is not how math and reading SOL tests are designed now in Virginia.

    Computer Adaptive Tests (CAT) – the link provides more detail than I will here – use AI algorithms to personalize the test for each student.  SOLs have been computer adaptive for more than a decade.

    How a student responds to a question determines the difficulty of the next item. A correct response leads to a more difficult item, while an incorrect response results in the selection of a less difficult item for the student.

    CATs more completely test the level of knowledge of each student, not continuing with test questions which are either too easy or too hard for that particular student.

    Important changes were made for the tests taken in Spring of 2023.

    Based upon legislation in 2021, Spring 2023 tests administered questions on grade level, one level up or one level down depending upon the student’s progress through the earlier parts of the exam.

    That seems an improvement, offering a more thorough measure of student learning and potentially being more engaging for each student. (more…)

  • VMI’s DEI Chief Resigns — “Vitriolic” VMI Critics Implicated

    Posted on

    by

    James A. Bacon

    Jamica Love

    by James A. Bacon

    Virginia Military Institute’s chief diversity officer, Jamica Love, has resigned nearly two years after taking on the job of implementing Diversity, Equity & Inclusion at the military institute.

    While Superintendent Cedric T. Wins noted that Love served with distinction and professionalism, VMI gave no reason for her resignation. She has issued no statement and turned down an interview request.

    My purpose in writing about Love’s resignation is not to highlight her role in the ongoing controversy over DEI at VMI — my sense is that she did exactly what was expected of her — but to explore how The Washington Post has framed her departure. Writer Ian Shapira takes the opportunity once again to recite the litany of racism allegations against VMI and cast the controversy as a good guys/bad guys melodrama with the black hats worn by “a political action committee of mostly White conservative graduates called The Spirit of VMI.” (more…)

  • Mountain Valley Pipeline Back Thanks to McCarthy-Biden Debt Deal

    Posted on

    by

    Robin Beres

    by Shaun Kenney

    As part of the debt ceiling deal, the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP), long thought dead, is now suddenly back in the cards.

    But don’t expect bulldozers back in Virginia anytime soon, as the 4th Federal Circuit Court of Appeals is not expected to grant permission to cross any streams or wetlands before 15 June. From The Roanoke Times:

    Efforts to obtain the permit — the last major approval needed to restart construction that has been stalled since the fall of 2021 — were underway well before the Mountain Valley provision was added to the debt ceiling bill at the urging of Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va.

    Most importantly for Mountain Valley, the bill prohibits any legal challenge of the Army Corps permit or any other government approval.

    Since work on the pipeline began in 2018, the Fourth Circuit has thrown out about a dozen permits, siding with environmental groups who argued that agencies failed to take adequate steps to limit muddy runoff from the construction sites.

    A pending lawsuit over the fate of endangered species in the pipeline’s path, and a potential legal challenge of a permit allowing its passage through the Jefferson National Forest, will be rendered moot as soon as the law takes effect.

    (more…)

Now Available

Book cover of 'Dust Mites: A Second American Revolution' by James A. Bacon, featuring astronauts planting a flag with a blue and white emblem on a lunar landscape, with Earth visible in the background.
For sale on Amazon.com

The year: 2075. The American colonies on the Moon are getting restless under Washington’s tyrannical rule….

This second edition of “Dust Mites” has a snazzy new cover, includes helpful lunar maps, and is 5,000 words tighter than the original. The sequel, “Trogs,” is scheduled for publication this summer.

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Bacon’s Rebellion is Virginia’s leading politically non-aligned portal for news, opinions and analysis about state, regional and local public policy. Read more about us here.

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