Bacon's Rebellion

At the risk of making this blog a 24/7, “All Potts, All Debates, All the Time” instrument, I want to make one more point about this controversy. There’s a slippery slope forming.

The Virginian-Pilot editorial page has joined the seemingly unanimous view that Russ Potts deserves to be in the debates right now:

A four-term state senator from Winchester, Potts has an electoral base, a proven grasp of the issues, and positions on taxes and transportation not being articulated by either of the major-party candidates, Democrat Tim Kaine or Republican Jerry Kilgore.

Suddenly, it occurs to the good folks at the Pilot that maybe they should clarify something:

As a practical matter, not every independent who earns a spot on the ballot has earned the credibility to be included in every debate. For example, fringe candidates with noxious views.

I wonder if all the editorial boards would go to the ramparts if Del. Dick Black or Del. Bob Marshall were the independent, not Russ Potts. They’ve certainly got an electoral base and proven grasp of the issues. What are “noxious views?” Maybe, Potter Stewart-like, they know them when we see them.

Then there’s the private organization argument:

Minus an acid test of who’s legitimate and who’s not, the matter ought to be left up to the sponsors of individual events.

With Russ Potts apparently at under 5% in the polls, how can a private organization be criticized for having their debate between just the two guys with over 40% in the polls?

Finally, the Pilot gets around to where I think the real answer lies:

At a minimum, however, Potts deserves a shot at any televised debate. Political scientist Larry Sabato, who’s trying to arrange such an event, proposes a test similar to one set by the Presidential Debate Commission.

If Potts attains support from 10-15 percent of citizens in two legitimate state polls, then it would be a travesty not to include him.

The 10-15% suggestion seemingly contradicts their earlier assertion that Potts belongs in the debates just because they think he’s legitimate. That’s the beauty of requiring some showing in the polls–real people express their preferences, not just ivory tower editorial writers.

Jerry Kilgore should not have ruled out debating Potts, but he should have at least referenced the “Sabato standard” as the most important consideration. We are setting ourselves up for some real donnybrooks in the future if 5% or less is the standard for getting into a debate among candidates in a state-wide general election. If you want Potts in the debates now, get ready to defend a motley band of candidates who can afford $14,000 to get enough ballot signatures. Get ready to show your free speech bona fides as to what constitutes “noxious views.”

If Jerry Kilgore is feeling any pressure from “Debate-Gate,” it didn’t seem to show at his appearance yesterday at Boys State. From this account, he sounded relaxed and engaging at this annual gathering of young leaders.

Hard to believe, but I attended Boys State 35 years ago.

I missed this yesterday–a Roanoke Times account of a Weekly Standard reporter going hunting with Roanoke’s famous political consultant, David “Mudcat” Sanders. The story, and Sanders’ specialty, can be neatly summarized from this passage:

It’s easier to get someone to believe he [Sanders] ate deer droppings than to get Northeastern Democrats to understand the culture of the South.

Jerry, you’re mistaken. People don’t pull for the overdog. Let Potts in, or spend the rest of your life second-guessing yourself on what might have been.

With the revelation that Virginia is running another gigantic surplus, the debate over the budget and taxes is heating up again. The terms of debate, as I argue in this week’s Bacon’s Rebellion, have shifted decisively in favor of the low-tax advocates.

Last week, Jerry Kilgore argued that the surplus proves that last year’s tax increase was not needed. Now the House of Delegates is in an uproar. As Michael Hardy sums up yesterday’s developments in the Richmond Times-Dispatch: “Some House Republicans, still smarting over [Mark Warner’s] success in winning passage of a record $1.4 billion in tax increases last year, renewed cries that the package was unnecessary because of substantially higher-than-predicted rates of state tax collections.”

House Appropriations Chair Vincent F. Callahan, R-Fairfax, estimated that the state will have an extra $500 million at the end of the fiscal year — presumably over and above the $900 million or so surplus that the Warner administration had anticipated back in December/January and the General Assembly spent, mostly on transportation.

Del. R. Steven Landes, R-Augusta, was particularly harsh in his criticism of the Warner administration: “You all have the worst record of any administration,” he told Finance Secretary John Bennett at a House hearing. Del. Leo C. Waldrup Jr., R-Virginia Beach, characterized Warner as acting like “Chicken Little” about state finances.

Bennett conceded that the state needed to improve its forecasting ability. But the issue really isn’t the Warner administration’s forecasting record. Forecasting is inherently a hit or miss proposition; no one is very good at it. Warner’s mistake was justifying tax increases based on six-year projections that a long-term, structural budget deficit would leave Virginia unable to meet core obligations. Long-term forecasts are even more uncertain than short-term forecasts. Moral of the story: Don’t increase taxes on the basis of shortfalls that might materialize some hazy time in the future.

Virginia never needed the 2004 tax increase. It’s time to talk rollback.

Kilgore will, in fact, agree to debate Potts. He has no choice. If he doesn’t, his campaign is done, finished, and the tent is folded. He’s got some awfully bright folks advising him and I’d say they’re looking for the language that will allow the reconsideration of his earlier position–even as you read this. And then there are the investors, the campaign money bags. They will not sit on their hands while this campaign–and their money–goes down the drain on this debate issue. Get your popcorn ready, this debate will be on.

Despite the recent spate of Russ Potts commentary, Virginia’s favorite and longest-lived game remains, “What will Doug do?” Lee Hockstader of the Washington Post analyzes Tim Kaine’s need for Richmond Mayor Doug Wilder’s endorsement–the earlier the better.

Speaking of Russ Potts, though, Hockstader doesn’t mention Potts as a possible recipient of Wilder’s endorsement. I would suggest that Potts adds another level of intrigue to Wilder’s calculations. It’s hard to imagine Wilder being sympathetic to Potts’ tax-raising plans–Wilder could endorse Kaine and simultaneously criticize Potts. Or, Kilgore-like, he could ignore Potts. Wilder has lots of choices and lots of time.

Let the game begin.

Looks like the Blue Dog beat me to this story, but I’m going to post my version anyway….

Maverick gubernatorial candidate Russell Potts has won an endorsement from the Public Service Workers Union-UE Local 160, representing the employees of Virginia’s state mental hospitals. Given the nature of their job, the members of Local 160 clearly have developed a higher tolerance for bizarre rhetoric and crackpot logic than the rest of us.

The Daily News-Record reported:

On Monday, he (Russ Potts) went to Staunton to pick up the endorsement of UE Local 160 Virginia Public Service Workers.

“He knew a lot of the problems that we were going through,” said Allen Layman, president of the statewide organization and the Western State Hospital chapter. Layman said Potts voice would be important at the Virginia Bar Association’s gubernatorial debate next month
http://dnronline.com/local-story2.asp

The Augusta Free Press reported:

“We don’t like to be taken for granted,” union president Allen Layman said on Monday after announcing that the union had thrown its support to the independent gubernatorial candidacy of Winchester Sen. Russ Potts.

“The Democrats automatically assume that all union peoples are going to follow the Democratic ticket. But as I’ve told a number of people, in our membership we have Republicans, we have independents, we have moderates, and we have liberals and progressives. And all of us are tired of being taken for granted,” Layman told The Augusta Free Press.
http://www.augustafreepress.com/stories/storyReader$35157

Amazing! Tim Kaine’s faith-base campaign needs to wake up… before it’s too late.

~ the blue dog

Virginia’s bloggers have made Potts the CENTER of attention already–just like the Republican Party has done! If both keep this up, he’s in by a mile!

C’mon, people. The General Assembly goes to a lot of trouble to approve license plates. The least you can do is show your support. Free Tibet!

The latest edition of the Bacon’s Rebellion e-zine has been posted online. You can view it here.

Barnie Day debated Norm Leahy yesterday about the Russ Potts phenomenon over at One Man’s Trash. I jumped in, too, and today’s Bacon’s Rebellion e-zine has Barnie’s column that started it all and my commentary on it in “Virginia Pundit Watch.”

Comments are welcome here, too, on any or all of the issues: Does Russ Potts represent the center in Virginia politics? Is he a serious candidate? Is he getting a free ride in the media? Are polls showing scant support for him misleading? Most of all, can he win?

I’ve always been fascinated by the psychology and sociology of “slugging,” the practice of strangers forming ad hoc car pools on I-95 in Northern Virginia so drivers can utilize HOV lanes.

“Slugs” are worried about a new idea: allowing drivers to pay a toll to ride in HOV lanes. They fear it will end slugging. Rather than pick up a slug, drivers will just pay the toll. Slugs will be forced into their own cars, adding to the congestion. The Washington Post has the story.

Every transportation idea has its potential downside. For more learned commentary, see The Road to Ruin.

To all of our readers and my colleagues who are fathers, and to their fathers, I wish a Happy Father’s Day on this last day of spring.

My Dad worked very hard to provide for us and there weren’t a lot of extras until I was well into high school, but Dad believed passionately in being informed. He always asked his mother-in-law, my grandmother, to give him a Newsweek subscription for Christmas every year, and he always made sure we got home delivery of the Washington Post and Manassas Journal Messenger. With not a lot of diversions back in those simpler times, his choices led to the love of reading about current events becoming ingrained in me at a young age.

As I got older and started a family of my own, travelling to dinner at Dad’s on Saturday nights became a ritual. We would all sit in the living room and watch “Inside Washington” and the “McLaughlin Group.” My father would rail against the views of “that liberal, Carl Rowan” and my affinty for pundits and political discussion was cemented.

I miss him.