Bacon's Rebellion

Del. Mark L. Cole, representing parts of Stafford, Spotsylvania and Fauquier counties, tells this story in a recent General Assembly update:

I recently ran into a situation that kind of highlights the need for reform in the Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT). A neighborhood in my district wanted to get no through truck restrictions on their neighborhood streets in place. Keep in mind that this is a subdivision neighborhood and not a major highway or street. They went through the process of getting petitions signed, getting approval of the county Board of Supervisors, and the regional VDOT office. However, the signs still have not been posted and the restriction is not in place.

When I asked VDOT what the hold-up was they said that the request had been sent to the Commissioner of VDOT in Richmond for final approval. Why does the Commissioner need to approve a restriction on a neighborhood street? What value or insight can he provide for a neighborhood that he has probably never even seen? This is just a small example of the bureaucratic nature of VDOT and why they tend to be inefficient and slow in getting things done.

Good question: Why does approval for a neighborhood sign need to be approved by the VDOT commissioner?

Follow-up question: What important issues are not being considered as a result of the commissioner being inundated with this level of detail?

Virginia has a strong economy and a budget surplus now but faces major fiscal challenges ahead, warns Secretary of Finance Jody M. Wagner. Speaking to the Hampton Roads Tax Forum, Wagner offered a two-pronged argument: (1) that much of the state’s surging revenue comes from volatile sources such as corporate income taxes, capital gains and real estate recordation taxes that may not be sustainable; and (2) a new accounting standards will require state and local governments to report retirement liabilities differently. Funding for the Virginia Retirement System, she said, is only 82 to 85 percent of where it needs to be. And, of course, there’s the Medicaid bugaboo that continues to consume an ever-larger share of the budget.

Wagner apparently did not draw any policy implications — at least nothing mentioned by Tom Shean, the Virginian-Pilot reporter who covered the speech. But that hasn’t stopped a number of pundits from sounding the klaxon of imminent fiscal disaster unless Virginia raises taxes, preferably for the cause du jour, transportation.

Prudence dictates that Virginia base future spending plans upon cautious budget forecasts. Better to enjoy a surplus than suffer a deficit. But prudence likewise dictates that Virginia not increase taxes, as it did in 2004, in anticipation of deficits that may or may not materialize in the future. If the fiscal situation deteriorates, it makes more sense to deal with the situation then as it is — not now, as we think it might be.

Several comments on our PRT column “The Trouble With ‘Mass’ Transit” have been posted under the headings “Partial to PRT” and “Grab Your Flintlock…” below. Others have been sent directly to S/PI. As is usually the case, the most thoughtful comments both pro and con come from those who send us information directly.

(This is an interesting comment on the value and impact of Blogging which we will explore in a future column.)

One especially good critique by a professional who is actually developing a PRT system lists a number of additional sources and perspectives. We will not expose him to PRT Loonies but are forwarding his thoughts to those who are serious about the topic.

The last issue that is clouding the future of PRTs which we raised in “The Trouble With ‘Mass’ Transit as a was that the topic of PRTs is a “MAGNET FOR LOONIES.”

It turns that in 1956 the leaders of what we call the Autonomobility Lobby (automobiles, oil, rubber, concrete, asphalt, steel, land speculation, large lot urban home building, Realtors, lawyers and other agents of all stripes.) sat around their square table and adopted a Profit Finding:

“We have now eliminated interurbans and trolleys, decimated passenger rail service and put trucks on the road to eroding freight rail service. The Interstate Defense Highway system is now rolling with a dedicated funding source. The next priority is to establish a clandestine institution that lies in wait to discredit any idea that might challenge the private-vehicle system upon which the “American Dream” (aka, the “American Consumption Nightmare”) and our future revenue stream is based.”

The rest is history. The resulting Business-As-Usual Institute (BAUI) has adopted hard-to-trace but effective diversions. For instance, if a group insists on the need for “mass transit” they are steered toward inefficient 19th century systems. Much of the cost of BAUI is covered by excess profits from the sale of automobiles, imported petroleum and from contracts to study mobility and access dysfunction and to design and build “solutions.” See notes on Raytheon / Rosemont, ILL. and on PUBLIC PORK AND PRIVATE PAYOLA in “The Trouble With ‘Mass’ Transit.”

We open our column “What is Wrong With ‘Mass’ Transit,” with the observation that “the failure of mass transit” is a favorite way to champion Autonomobility projects. For an example of how BAUI agents spin the “failure” of “mass transit” to sell road construction, HOT Lanes or other ideas see the 10 May posting “Walker Pours Withering Scorn…”

Contrary to what Chris Walker suggests, without METRO there would be absolute gridlock in the National Capital Subregion because of the focus of jobs near the Centroid. Using the percent of total trips as a metric to minimize the impact of METRO is a Bright Red Herring. BAUI has a monopoly on the fabrication and importation Red Herring of all shades.

Over the past few years, S/PI has become keenly aware of the actions of BAUI. As readers of Bacon’s Rebellion know, BAUI agents are trained to attack any suggestion that functional human settlement patterns can be created. This is because of the direct link between these patterns and efficient shared-vehicle systems in large New Urban Regions.

After extensive research it turns out the existence of BAUI is well documented and can be understood by deciphering the Norman Rockwell Code.

Because agents are equipped with the latest data mining technology and “PRT” sets off their system alarms we shall henceforth call the PRT systems “Non-Stop Shared-Vehicle Systems with Off-Line Stations” This phrase will trigger a clear Neural Linguistic Framework which should be as effective as “Ben and George’s Kiwi Downunder Strategy” is for property taxation. By the time BAUI moves to discredit the concept, citizens will already be aware of the importance of “Non-Stop Shared-Vehicle Systems with Off-Line Stations” – NSSVSOLS for short.

EMR

While the Roanoke Times editorial page displayed signs of thinking outside the box this morning (see previous post, “Roanoke Roundabouts”), the same cannot be said of the Newport News Daily Press, which is stuck in a rut: raging against its favorite target, House Speaker William J. Howell, R-Stafford, on the topic of its favorite excuse for raising taxes, transportation.

Howell, states the Daily Press editorial writer: “has held his Republican majority in the House of Delegates together, refused to consider new revenue sources, thumbed his nose at the governor’s entreaties and, now, the state Senate may very well throw in the towel and pass a budget that includes meager new transportation support.”

Let’s deconstruct that statement.

“Refused to consider new revenue sources...” Wrong, just plain wrong. Howell has not “refused to consider new revenue sources” — he’s merely refused to consider the revenue sources — new taxes — that the Daily Press is so enamored of. Howell has backed the idea of public private partnerships that issue bonds backed by tolls. He has backed the idea of privatizing revenue-generating pieces of the transportation system to raise funds to be invested elsewhere. He has backed raising fines on “traffic abusers” and devoting the proceeds to transportation. He has carved out dedicated revenue streams from the General Fund to back the issurance of bonds. And that list doesn’t include using the state surplus in the next biennial budget, like the last, for transportation.

(There are legitimate grounds for criticizing Howell’s approach to transportation, but not for reasons that the Daily Press would recognize. The Speaker, like the state senators whose fiscally outrageous spending plans he opposes, seems stuck in the mindset that the way to address traffic congestion is to match every increase in Vehicle Miles Traveled with an expansion of capacity. Howell would be well advised to pay more attention to the need for fundamental land use reforms, not the tinkering-on-the-edge reforms that have come out of this year’s session, and other strategies for moderating the relentless increase in travel demand.)

“thumbed his nose at the Governor’s entreaties…” If that characterization is apt, then it is fair to say that the Governor has “thumbed his nose” at Howell’s entreaties as well. I haven’t noticed any indication yet that the Governor is any more willing to compromise on transportation funding than the House is.

“the senate may very well throw in the towel and pass a budget that includes meager new transportation support…” Throw in the towel? That’s an interesting description for the Senate’s recognition that it should stop holding a figurative gun to Howell’s head by embedding the 2007-2008 budget with tax increases. Rest assured, had Howell tried a similar strong-armed legislative tactic in the absence of a consensus, the Daily Press would be crying bloody murder.

Note to the Daily Press: The transportation debate has left you in the dust. Virginia’s Business-As-Usual transportation policy is coming under wider and wider assault. You’re like the last Tyrannosaurus bellowing about the meteor strike while the mammals get on with taking over.

I must have gotten out of the wrong side of the bed this morning: I have something nice to say about the Roanoke Times editorial page. Traffic engineers propose installing two roundabouts, as part of improvements to the 13th Street-Hollins Road corridor in Southeast Roanoke, with construction to start in 2010. Citizens have expressed safety concerns, but the Times assures them that roundabouts are OK:

Such fears are unwarranted. Other communities have found that once roundabouts are in place, they prove safer than traffic lights or stop signs. Moreover, because drivers must slow when approaching a circle, the few accidents that do occur are less severe.

Drivers end up liking them because traffic flows better, and there is no waiting at a red light. Neighbors end up liking them because they calm traffic on local streets.

As Bacon’s Rebellion readers know, (“In Praise of Roundabouts“) we like roundabouts for the very reasons enumerated by the Times. Now… if only we could persuade the Times to take a serious look at the many other strategies for improving traffic flow and managing transportation demand that could address Virginia’s transportation crisis without raising taxes.

Bacon’s Rebellion has long promoted telework as a strategy to help cope with traffic congestion. But telework also makes sense as a tool to preserve business continuity. In Washington, D.C., Cyber Security Industry Alliance (CSIA) Executive Director Paul Kurtz testified earlier this week before the House Government Reform Committee that the federal workforce lags the private sector in its ability to work offsite in response to a large-scale crisis such as pandemic influenza.

Committee Chairman Tom Davis (R-VA) has called for federal agencies to be able to “decentralize” their critical functions in an emergency. But according to a CSIA press release, Kurtz said, “I wish I could say that this goal had been met. [Agencies] have a long way to go before they are ready to work together in a crisis like an outbreak of avian flu. Most agencies’ contingency plans are designed for a maximum downtime of two or three days; a flu pandemic could last as long as 18 months.”

Kurtz urged that the federal government invest in the capability to distribute its workforce, enabling employees to function offsite under normal as well as adverse conditions — not only at home, under the traditional definition of telework, but from anywhere, at any time. “As frightening as a flu pandemic might be, it also provides us with the opportunity, and the impetus, to change the way the government does business by breaking down structural barriers to reform like budget rules, statutory limitations and management inertia. The result will be a more agile, efficient workforce.”

What makes sense for the federal government also makes sense for state government. State government also needs to think about business continuity in the face of natural disaster, terrorist attack or epidemic.

Braawwk! Braawwkkk! It didn’t take long. Route 288, the circumferential highway running around the south-western quadrant of the Richmond New Urban Region, opened in late 2004. Already it is changing development patterns for the worse and causing localized traffic congestion around its exits. The Richmond Times-Dispatch tells the tale today about the impact on the Huguenot Trail in Powhatan County.

Traffic has more than doubled in one section of Huguenot Trail since 288 opened, reports Will Jones. Speeding and accidents have surged as well: 17 accidents have been reported near the intersection of Winterfield Road so far this year, up from 12 for all of 2004.

Dale Totten, resident engineer for the Virginia Department of Transportation, noted that VDOT would four-lane the road for about $13 million if it had more money. Of course, VDOT has no more money for road construction in the Richmond region. One reason is that VDOT, at the behest of local politicians and boosters, spent all its friggin’ money on 288!

Where’s Homer Simpson when you need him? This is a major “D’oh!” moment.

As we predicted, Route 288 is generating residential development in scarcely populated areas all around its exits, overtaxing the local country roads. While the limited access highway might provide limited traffic relief for people driving back and forth between Chesterfield and Goochland counties, other people are making choices about where they live and work, and they are creating traffic congestion in new places. The only thing that surprises me is how rapidly this is happening. Even I thought there might be a lag of three or four years.

If Route 288 has already created a $13 million road-construction in just this one exist, think of the liability it has created for all of its exits!

Here’s another prediction: After a few more years of scattered subdivision development and approval of mega-commercial projects at major 288 intersections, the need for new road improvements will soar. Before the end of the decade, we may well see the unfunded liability zoom well past the original $400 million it took to build the original highway. To the brainiacs who thought Route 288 was such a great idea: Thanks for nothing. I think we could have spent the $400 million better elsewhere.

Saturday May 13th’s Daily Press (Judge the Senator by fitness to serve, not teenage behavior) gave lawyer Mark Ailsworth an op ed to exonerate Sen. Allen. The author provides the political, if not legal, defense of “young, dumb, male.”

Ailsworth personalizes his history with the Confederate battle flag and writes, “From the moment it was expropriated by the Ku Klux Klan during Reconstruction, the flag became a symbol of the racism that has plaqued this country since the arrival of the first black slaves in 1619.”

His history is a bit off. The occupying Federal Army didn’t take kindly to Confederate battle flags during Reconstruction. So, when the KKK was the most physically threatening, the KKK used the Christian cross. No one kept the association.

In the 1920s, when the KKK was the most politically threatening (see photo above of parade in the Washington DC), the KKK used the American flag – Old Glory. No one kept the association.

In the 1950/60s, when the KKK was heavily infiltrated by the FBI and a fringe element caught in every act of violence, the KKK used the Confederate battle flag. Liberals, historically challenged Yankees, and politically correct Southerners hold the association as eternal.

Finally, lawyer Ailsworth wrote that white Southerners “would do the nation and ourselves a favor if we folded the Confederate flag and stored it in the attic with our yearbooks and relics of the past.” It depends on how you treat memories of valor. Some families take the shadow boxes of medals of family member’s military service and put them in the attic. Most families put those shadow boxes in the front room.

Clearly, Mr. Ailsworth has lost touch with being a Southerner. Attics are where you keep crazy relatives.

Yesterday, I published a column, “Rail Rip-off,” that decried the funding mechanism for the $4 billion Rail to Dulles extension of the Washington METRO. It was unconscionable, I argued, that commuters on the Dulles Toll Road will be required to pay 25 percent, or $1 billion, of the capital costs of the project, while most of the economic value created would accrue to the owners of property near the METRO stations.

If only I’d known the whole truth, an anonymous phone caller informed me late yesterday. In fact, Dulles Toll Road commuters may well end up closer to half of the METRO project costs, or nearly $1.8 billion, and their fares will ratchet higher for years to do it.

That, of course, is not the official party line. The Dulles Corridor Metrorail Project forwarded the graphic pictured above (cropped and shrunk to fit this blog). The state, which extracts its share from Dulles Toll Road commuters, will contribute 25 percent of the project costs, the localities (including the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority) will contribute 25 percent, and Uncle Sam will generously provide the rest.

By way of background: In February 2005, the Commonwealth Transportation Board enacted a $0.25 toll increase at the main entrance and exit ramps to the Dulles Toll Road. As the CBT explained in a February 2005 press release (my highlights added):

The quarter toll increase will complete Virginia’s share to fund Phase 1, which will extend Metrorail for 11 miles from near East Falls Church station through Tysons Corner to Wiehle Avenue in Reston. The toll increase will also help to fund part of Phase 2, which will further extend the line for 12 more miles from Wiehle Avenue through Dulles International Airport to Route 772 in Loudoun County.

Since that CBT announcement, the Kaine administration has proposed turning over responsibility for the Rail-to-Dulles project to the MWAA (the airports authority). The MWAA outlined its plans for the disposition of the Dulles Toll Road revenues in a December 2005 document entitled, “Proposal to Operate the Dulles Toll Road and Build Rail to Loudoun County.”

On pages 14 and 15 of the proposal, MWAA “assumes” the following contributions to Phase 1 and Phase 2 of the METRO construction from toll revenues:

• Phase 1: $361 million
• Phase 2: $1,409 million

That totals $1,770 million, or $770 million more than acknowledged by the state.

Why is the Phase 2 contribution so huge? Because, my source explains, MWAA assumes that, while the federal government will contribute $900 million to Phase 1, it will not contribute one thin dime to Phase 2. MWAA, in his estimation, plans to accelerate development of METRO by substituting known and predictable Toll Road revenue for not-yet-committed federal revenue.

What does that mean for toll payers? MWAA says that it will “keep average real toll rates flat on an inflation-adjusted basis.” MWAA’s preliminary analysis assumes that tolls will be increased every three years starting 2010 at a 3 percent compounded annual rate for 50 years. Translation: Dulles Toll Road commuters can expect toll increases of about 10 percent every three years (assuming inflation stays at the current rate).

That sounds very reasonable if the sole purpose of the toll is to provide for operating expenses and capital improvements to the Toll Road and related corridor improvements. But roughly half of the tolls will be going to pay off METRO bonds — and bond payments are fixed. They don’t increase with the rate of inflation! In other words, increasing tolls at the rate of inflation over the next 50 years is, in fact, a very aggressive increase. Contrast that to the rate history of the Dulles Toll Road before 2005: From the day it opened in 1984 — 21 years — it did not increase tolls once.

Bottom line: Dulles Toll Road commuters are the beasts of burden upon whose backs Rail to Dulles will be built. When all is said and done, they will wind up paying about 44 percent of the cost of the METRO extension even though, by definition, they will not be using it. By contrast, as explained in yesterday’s column, the contribution of Fairfax County commercial property owners will be capped at $400 million for Phase 1, even though they will be the most direct beneficiaries.

Tax revolt, anyone?

If you haven’t heard yet, Will Vehrs has given up blogging. One of the very first Virginians to take up blogging in any form, he had a wonderful, dry wit. He was often incisive but always fair. The Virginia blogosphere will be much diminished without him.

Conaway Haskins caught up with Will a couple of days ago, and interviewed him for the “Blogology” department in the Bacon’s Rebellion e-zine. You can read “Ten Questions for Will Vehrs” here.

J.R. Hoeft at BearingDrift also interviewed Will for a podcast. You can listen to it here. (J.R. even has a cool new musical intro!)

Update: Maybe Will hasn’t given up blogging entirely. Read about his penitential trip to Martinsville.

In my column this week, “Rail Rip-off,” I tout the benefits of the heavy-rail transportation option in Northern Virginia, as long as it can pay its own way. Were the planning process not so far along, making it politically impossible to consider an alternative mass-transit system, I would urge the Kaine administration to take a close look at Personal Rapid Transit, or PRT.

In his column today (“The Problem with ‘Mass” Transit“) Ed Risse takes a detailed look at the PRT option. In theory, PRT would be less expensive to build and far more flexible than rail. Because it’s so new and relatively untested, PRT is not a political option for Northern Virginia, which is demanding answers right now. But other metropolitan areas no so deeply committed to heavy rail — e.g. Hampton Road and Richmond — should consider it.

Heavy rail like the Washington METRO is a wonderful thing… as long as it can pay its own way. As I argue in today’s e-zine column, “Rail Rip-off,” the extension of METRO rail to Dulles Airport could catalyze billions of dollars of redevelopment in Tysons Corner, transforming Virginia’s leading business center into a much more livable, workable community. Rail to Dulles is much to be desired.

My problem with the project is the financing mechanism the state has cobbled together to pay for it. The financing scheme and zoning plan (as currently articulated) sticks Joe Blow commuters along the Dulles Toll Road with $1 billion in tolls while it lavishes the benefits of higher densities and METRO access upon select landowners in Tysons Corner and along the Dulles Corridor.

This financing package represents an unprecedented transfer of wealth from the poor (or middle class) to the super rich. How this could take place under a Democratic Party administration is a mystery to me. Where are all the populists who stand up for the little guy? For that matter, how can Republicans, who supposedly recoil from the corporate welfare state, remain silent?

Enough wealth would be created by a METRO line and increased density around the rail stations that property owners — the primary beneficiaries — are perfectly capable of footing the cost. There is no need to bilk highway commuters. Conceptually, the financing solution is fairly simple, as I explain in my column. The devil is in the details, I’ll concede. But there should be enough wealth created to negotiate a win-win scenario for everyone.

The May 15, 2006, edition of Bacon’s Rebellion has been published. You can read the entire edition online here. Our columns and departments this week include:

Rail Rip-off
Extending METRO rail to Dulles Airport will enrich select landowners to the tune of billions of dollars. Why, then, are Fairfax County commuters being forced to pay so much of the project cost?
by James A. Bacon

Sense and Census
Opinions about new and different Americans are fine. Facts are better.
by Doug Koelemay

Shades of Francis Nicholson
Like the power-hungry royal governor of old, Gov. Tim Kaine seems willing to misuse the powers of his office. But his budget brinksmanship could backfire.
by Patrick McSweeney

Another Grandiose Plan
Apparently, $120 million to renovate the state Capitol complex is not enough. The state Senate wants to spend another $400 million.
by Patrick McSweeney

The Problem with “Mass” Transit
Light and heavy rail are expensive, inflexible alternatives to the automobile. It’s time to consider a 21st-century solution to mobility in New Urban Regions: Personal Rapid Transit.
by EM Risse

Learning from Pocahontas
Gov. Kaine smartly bailed out the Pocahontas Parkway project by granting a concession to a private toll-road operator. Too bad he didn’t apply the same creative thinking to the Dulles Toll Road.
by Geoffrey Segal

Republican Blues
The GOP has more than the Democrats to worry about this November. The Party is struggling from internal divisions, as seen in the convention battle in Virginia’s 10th Congressional District.
by Philip Rodokanakis

Stuck on Stupid
The Senate Republicans who worked out a proposed regional transportation authority are the same geniuses who thought up the Transportation Tax Scam that voters rejected in 2002.
by James Atticus Bowden

Nice & Curious Questions
Have You Ever Seen the Rain: Droughts in Virginia
by Edwin S. Clay III and Patricia Bangs

Blogology
Ten Questions for Will Vehrs
Conaway Haskins

It turns out that Bacon’s Rebellion isn’t the only media outlet enthralled with the minutiae of traffic planning in Virginia. According to Washington Post columnist John Kelly, Tom Cruise plays a traffic engineer in the upcoming movie, “Mission Impossible III.”

Actually, Cruise plays Ethan Hunt, a member of the Mission Impossible team, whose cover story is that he’s a traffic engineer with the Virginia Department of Transportation. Writes Kelly:

How do we know Tom/Ethan is a traffic engineer? Because in a party scene early in the movie, some civilian friend asks him, “How’s the Department of Transportation?” And then Tom delivers a moving little monologue about how fascinating traffic is, about how a single motorist tapping on the brakes can slow things for miles behind him.

“Booooooring,” says the friend.

No, NOT boring! The dynamics of transportation flow are fascinating stuff…. OK, OK, Maybe not as fascinating as saving the free world. But definitely less dangerous.