Bacon's Rebellion

The Bad News:

On Friday we received word from Susan Kane that the highly regarded and independent thinking urban planner Patrick Kane suffered a fall resulting in significant injuries a few days ago.

Patrick has been fighting back from a serious stroke for several years. He has been working to bring his considerable insight on human settlement pattern issues into play, especially with respect to his beloved Lake Anne Village Core / Plaza in Reston.

We wish Patrick speedy and full recovery.

The Good News:

Patrick will be amused to see today’s The Washington Post front page of METRO story “With an Eye Toward Development: As Land Use Professionals Offer Guidance, Expertise and Admiration, Designing High Schoolers Compose Plans for Fictional Blighted Area. The professional planners that worked with Robinson Highschool were from the METRO West team. (See METRO WEST, 22 YEARS TOO LATE” post on 28 March 2006 on this Blog.) The story talks about upsetting neighbors and meeting “the cities demands for affordable housing.”

Patrick pioneered working with elementary, middle school and high school students on settlement pattern issues for decades in addition to teaching graduate planning courses. One of his popular programs was “Boom Town” about planing and replanning a Planned New Community like Reston.

Patrick worked with students from pre school through high school. As I recall he believed that fourth graders are best to understand settlement pattern issue. This is before they are swamped by adult advertising and preconceived notions / conventional wisdom.

My father’s favorite cartoon (along with “The Katsanjamer Kids”) was “Born 20 Years Too Soon / Born 20 Years Too Late.” With the rate of useful change slowing over the last few decades, perhaps it should now be “Born 40 Years Too Soon.”

EMR

It looks like General Assembly budget negotiators made some progress yesterday on the budget. Hugh Lessig with the Daily Press reports that the Senate and House of Delegates conferees agreed upon a capital spending list of roughly $1 billion, mostly for new buildings and renovations. Lawmakers expressed optimisim that they would complete their budget work in several days.

Negotiators are still maneuvering, however, in anticipation of a follow-up session of the General Assembly to address transportation financing. As Lessig explains:

The Senate has set aside $339 million in a contingency fund to be spent on transportation – but only if the General Assembly were to adopt a separate statewide transportation plan that has an adequate and reliable source of cash.

House members have said that $339 million isn’t nearly enough. The Senate has refused to budge, saying the real debate on transportation will take place after lawmakers pass a budget. The tentative plan is to continue to stay in session and debate long-term financing solutions for highways and other transit needs.

I deduce from Lessig’s account, and the parallel articles in the Virginian-Pilot and Free Lance-Star, that this issue — how much General Fund money to funnel into transportation projects –is still on the table, although I find the accounts murky. If I understand the reports correctly, significant differences between the Senate and House still remain.

The outcome of the budget compromise will shape the battlefield, so to speak, for the special transportation session. If the final General Fund budget leans towards the Senate’s plan, the House will enter the transportation session hundreds of millions of dollars short of what it had wanted to put into transportation projects. That stark fact will pressure delegates into raising additional taxes to make up the difference…. which, of course, is the Senate’s intention.

It would be helpful if the Capitol Press Corps reporters would clear up this point. In any case, the logic of the situation will become immediately apparent as soon as the 2007-2008 budget is passed and discussion resumes on transportation.

The city of Charlottesville is wrestling with a basic question that will shape the city’s future for decades to come: How tall is too tall?

Developer Keith Woodard has submitted a proposal to build a nine-story building at First and Main, on the Downtown Mall. According to Dave McNair wtih The Hook, the tower would provide room for two or three stores on the ground level, office space, 70 to 80 living spaces in the upper floors and a parking deck that would move cars to street level by means of an automobile elevator rather than space-consuming ramps.

The proposal has many virtues: It would bring people downtown, creating 24/7 patronage for local establishments. It would accomodate 70 to 80 households that would have to find housing elsewhere, presumably in growth-shy Albemarle County. The building would utilize existing roads and utilities. And, presumably, residents living in proximity to downtown’s shops and offices would generate fewer, shorter automobile trips than they would if they lived in conventional subdivisions.

On the other hand, there is the problem of scale. The complex would dwarf the buildings around it. Charlottesville’s Downtown Mall works effectively as an organic whole. The intrusion of a massive building could ruin the chemistry that makes it so special.

There are strong pros and strong cons to the project. Any decision by local planners is bound to be controversial. But Charlottesville’s transition from big town to small city is continuing apace. The First & Main project is not an aberration. Comparably sized buildings are in the development pipeline.

(Image credit: A2RCI Architect Greg Brezinski, as reproduced in The Hook.)

Adopting a new aesthetic for public places, the city of Charlottesville has created “no mow” zones near creeks and streams in five city parks. In April, the city also organized volunteers to plant 250 trees in the no-mow zones. The new policy, city officials acknowledge, will result in a shaggier, more unkempt look along the streams. But it also will help keep the waters clean.

As reported by “The Hook“:

“It’s a relatively cost-effective way to deal with storm water run-off,” notes the city’s environmental administrator Crystal Riddervold, who explains that vegetation filters pollutants that otherwise might run into streams.

The practice may spread. City code requires residents to keep residential grass shorter than 18 inches. But there’s an exemption. You can petition the city to declare your yard a riparian zone. No one has pursued that option… yet. The way I figure it, all it will take is one lazy husband tired of mowing the lawn to petition the city successfully, and the idea will spread like wildfire.

State government won’t shut down even if lawmakers fail to pass a budget, senior lawmakers assured the public yesterday. As the Richmond Times-Dispatch quoted Senate Finance Chair John H. Chichester: “If necessary, we would have a continuing resolution of less than 30 days” to continue all government services.

That’s comforting. But it would be even more comforting for the Senate and House of Delegates to approve a budget before any extra-constitutional hijinks were necessary.

One of the quirky aspects of the Richmond New Urban Region is how little development has occurred east of the city’s downtown area in contrast to the massive, leapfrogging growth that has radiated in every other direction. The result is striking. If you drive out Route 5, which takes you to the James River plantations, you hit countryside right outside the city limits.

Eastern Henrico offers incredible proximity to downtown Richmond and the regional airport, yet it has remained utterly uninteresting to developers — until the past couple of years. The first major project in this area, Rockett’s Landing, is redeveloping a rusted-out industrial district east of Shockoe Bottom. Rockett’s is planned as a mixed use, pedestrian-friendly, densely developed project along the James River — extending the urban fabric of downtown/Shockoe Bottom into Henrico County.

Now comes the news that developers, backed by former state Sen. Elmon T. Gray, wants to develop the 500-acre Tree Hill Farm off Route 5. I can’t tell from the Richmond Times-Dispatch article if the project would border Rockett’s Landing, but, even if not, it will be very, very close. Tree Hill Farm, which offers a spectacular vista of the city skyline, would represent a near-uninterrupted extension of Richmond’s urban fabric. This is efficient growth.

Even more encouraging is the involvement of Daniel K. Slone, a local McGuire Woods attorney with a national practice in New Urbanism-style development. Dan is a friend of mine, and I know him to be a passionate and articulate advocate of the right kind of development. Meanwhile, the developers are negotiating for the services of the Duany-Plater Zyberk architectural firm, one of the leading practitioners of New Urbanism in the country. It goes without saying that plans call for mixed-use development emphasizing pedestrian-friendly, traditional neighborhood design.

The Tree Hill project shows every sign of being the right kind of development at the right place. I couldn’t be more delighted by this news. It’s this kind of project — mixed use, pedestrian friendly development along the beautiful James River — that will make my home town an exciting, vibrant place to live in the years ahead.

Private industry is showing interest in financing and building a new U.S. 460, Peter Bacque with the Richmond Times-Dispatch is reporting. Tidewater Skanska, a subsidiary of Swedish construction giant Skanska AB, has committed to making a proposal to improve the 55-mile highway between U.S. 58 in Suffolk and Interstate 295 near Petersburg. The Virginia Department of Transportation, which is orchestrating the project, is hoping for at least two competing proposals.

With no public money available, improvements would have to be financed through tolls. The problem is that the market seems unlikely to support the $9.70 per vehicle it would cost to travel the full length of the road. Needless to say, residents of hamlets like Zuni and Wakefield who use 460 as a local thoroughfare will be none too happy with paying tolls every time they pull onto the road.

To offset sky-high tolls, Bacque says, VDOT is encouraging innovative financing schemes such as supporting “economic development opportunities.”

Bacque did not enumerate those opportunities in his article, but they could well be tied to major port expansions slated for Hampton Roads. Moffat & Nichol, an engineering consulting firm, prepared a study for the Virginia Port Authority last year advocating development of a major intermodal park off U.S. 460 as a way to handle an anticipated 900,000 additional containers annually expected to move through the ports. Those containers would require between 20 million and 60 million square feet of additional distribution space, employ 9,000 people directly and generate $788 million in wages from direct and indirect jobs.

I’m normally a big fan of toll-driven projects on the principle that users should pay for transportation improvements. And I’m all in favor of a project that would enable the expansion of Virginia’s ports and improve employment prospects for the rural Southside counties along U.S. 460. But I’m also wary of the potential for an upgraded U.S. 460 to act as a wick for the expansion of more hop-scotch, disconnected, low-density development out of Hampton Roads — a pattern of development that would negate many of the benefits of the economic development.

If the Kaine administration wants to align transportation and land use planning, a good place to start would be with projects, like this one, that emanate from the administration itself. Any evaluation of the competing proposals needs to consider the impact not just on traffic counts and toll financing but local human settlement patterns.

Virginia’s primo, AAA bond rating is not imperiled by the budget impasse, Gov. Timothy M. Kaine and senior Virginia legislators said yesterday after spending a day in New York getting grilled by the major bond-rating agencies. “We told them we were all very optimistic that we’re going to have a budget,” Kaine declared upon his return to Richmond. “But they told us they’d be watching.”

Robert A. Kurtter, senior vice president for state ratings at Moody’s Investors Service, said his firm will “evaluate the circumstances as they evolve.” He was not overly concerned that Virginia is nearly three months late completing a budget, report Michael Hardy and Jeff Schapiro with the Richmond Times-Dispatch, because there is still time to resolve the issues. Said the T-D:

Should Virginia be forced to operate without a budget, Moody’s would closely monitor the state’s contingency plan and determine whether it ultimately fashions a fiscally responsible solution, said Kurtter.

Twenty-two days left in the fiscal year… and counting…

(I am posting this on the behalf of Mark Rush, head of the department of politics at Washington & Lee University. — Jim Bacon)

Phillip Rodokanakis’s column, “Political Landscaping” (May 30, 2006), raises some important issues about the political parties’ rights of association. More important, it raises an esoteric issue: Who, exactly, is the Republican (or Democratic) Party—the voters, the elected officials or the party organization?

While the GOP has gone to court to challenge § 24.2-509 (which gives incumbents the right to choose their method of renomination) of the state code, I wonder whether we really want the courts to step in to this mess. Essentially, this is not a legal conflict. It is a family feud between the elected officials (who would be nuts to give up the right to choose their method of renomination) and the party officials (who are the principal victims of the code). By rights, the courts might just tell the political parties to get their houses in order.

Rodokanakis cites the U.S. Supreme Court decision (California Democratic Party v. Jones) as proof that the Supremes still support the associational rights of political parties. Problem is, the political parties went to court to prevent an initiative from compromising their associational rights. In Virginia, the law in question is part of the state code—put into effect by Democratic and Republican legislators.

I generally prefer the notion of strong party organizations. But, do we really want the courts to declare that elected legislators have no say in running the parties? Americans have never really promoted the notion of a strong party organization. Voters split tickets. They seldom become dues-paying, card-carrying, placard-waving party members. They like the idea of the primary election. I don’t see this lawsuit capturing the imagination of the public

Also, for what it’s worth, we can’t rely on the US Supreme Court for much in the way of support for the strong party notion. If we look at the court’s campaign finance decisions, we’ll see very little respect for the parties.

Does any one know the genesis of this part of the state law? When did incumbents gain the right to choose the manner of renomination? The law is clearly an attack on parties, party bosses, smoke-filled rooms, etc. But, it essentially turns candidates (and those seeking nominations) into independent contractors.

You can argue state constitutional theory all day long regarding the right of Gov. Timothy M. Kaine to run the government July 1 in the absence of a budget approved by the General Assembly. But 99.9 percent of the electorate is less interested in legalisms than in whether maximum security prisons are staffed with guards, whether the state police are patrolling the highways, whether DMV offices stay open, whether mental institutions remain staffed and the like. In the court of popular opinion, Tim Kaine is not likely to encounter much resistance if he usurps power to keep basic services functioning.

As the Washington Post quotes the Governor this morning:

“I am not going to let Virginians suffer because of inaction,” Kaine said at a news conference. “The Constitution doesn’t contemplate legislative inaction draining all the blood out of the executive and judicial branches.”

We’re already hearing the meme repeated that Republicans have proven they can’t govern. That’s a simplistic statement: The problem isn’t “Republicans” per se, but a deep philosophical division between Republicans in the Senate and Republicans the House of Delegates — a division as profound as that between Republicans and Democrats. But no matter. If essential government services get shut down, few members of the public will make that distinction.

If General Assembly Republicans want to ensure an electoral shellacking next year, they need do no more than refuse to agree to a budget, plunge the state into crisis — a crisis that will, assuredly, generate national attention — and let Democratic Governor Tim Kaine become the savior of sanity.

Twenty-three days left in the fiscal year… and counting…

The commercial real estate market is changing. Big developers are getting the message that the traditional pattern of development — scattered, disconnected, low-density — isn’t matching up with the demands of the marketplace. With luck, our lawmakers will get the message, too, and start devising ways to make it easier for developers to do the right thing.

The latest big announcement comes from Maryland-based Lerner Enterprises, which plans to build an 18-story, 472,000-square-foot office tower in the mixed-use Corporate Office Center in Tysons II. Billing the building as “state of the art,” Lerner sees itself as redirecting future growth in Tysons “away from urban sprawl, where cars and parking dominate the aesthetics, to one of urban centers where pedestrian amenities and public spaces unite to form a sense of place.”

The project will add an elegant enclosed pedestrian bridge system across Tysons Boulevard, linking the development with the “extensive amenity base” at the Ritz-Carlton, PalmRestaurant and the wide array of shops and restaurants of the adjacent Galleria. The heart of the complex, a plaza-like courtyard, will organize the entries for the office tower, retail and parking facilities. Landscaping, sculpture and architectural paving will enhance the formal entry court, which is conceived as an extension of the building’s lobby.

The building also will install state-of-the-art elevators, mechanical systems and high-performance glass, meeting “green” building standards and achieving Energy Star’s highest rating. (See press release here.)

I can’t tell enough from the scant details supplied by Lerner whether the project really delivers on the promise of creating a pedestrian-friendly environment that provides connectivity to neighboring properties. But, at a minimum, Lerner is talking the talk. And that’s a necessary precondition for walking the walk.

(Photo credit: www.tysons2.com.)

I’ve long maintained that real estate prices in Virginia are out of control and headed for a bust. Nothing makes my point clearer than this chart, created by Chmura Economics & Analytics and scheduled for publication tomorrow in VA Newswire.

The image is fuzzy because I had to shrink it to fit this blog format, but the divergence since 2001 between the green line (change in Virginia housing prices) and the blue line (change in U.S. housing prices) comes through clearly. The increase in Virginia housing prices has outpaced the increase for the U.S. by a wide and growing margin. The strongest price increases, according to Chmura, have been concentrated in Winchester, Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads.

What goes up must come down. When mortgage rates are rising and income is increasing at only five percent per year, it is impossible to sustain price increases of 20 percent or more per year, no matter how severe the local housing shortage. Inevitably, as speculative excess is wrung from the market, price increases will cool. The first big question is whether there is sufficient froth in the market to lead to an outright retreat in prices. The second big question is what will happen to local tax revenues and tax rates when property values fall and reassessments roll around. It won’t be pretty.

Not only is Virginia heading for a fiscal crisis, but it may be heading for a constitutional crisis as well. The Senate and House of Delegates managed to get budget talks back on track last week, but negotiations derailed faster than an Amtrak train in a snow storm. Judging by the exchange of letters released to the public, relations between the Senate and House budget conferees are as acrimonious as they’ve ever been.

There are 24 days left to patch together a budget before the fiscal year ends. Then the state enters a constitutional crisis. Gov. Timothy M. Kaine says he has the authority to keep basic state services running without a budget. But Attorney General Robert F. McDonnell says he does not. (Read the Washington Post coverage.)

Meanwhile, senior state lawmakers are due to visit bond rating agencies in New York. Virginia may be the best managed state in the country when the politicians are actually speaking to one another, but it’s not looking terribly well managed right now. Only two years ago, on the heels of the last recession, Virginia’s political class was consternated that the state’s AAA bond rating might be cut. Wouldn’t it be ironic if, despite the 2004 tax increase and a $1.5 billion surplus, the rating agencies cut Virginia’s bond rating anyway this year?

Interesting news in a telcon today. A big event is planned for political activists and junkies of the Right persuasion. Virginia Conservatie Action PAC (VCAP) is going to host a Conservative Convention for Virginia.

One day affair with volunteer delegations from every city and county on Saturday, November 11th , 2006 at the Richmond Convention Center.

Presidential candidates Allen, Frist, McCain, and Romney scheduled to appear, unless their truth changes. Huckabee is a maybe – if his schedule changes.

Keynote speaker is scheduled but hush-hush for now.

Other Conservative organizations are invited to participate.

This is part of the VCAP effort to identify and build a voting base of 1 million Conservative Virginian voters.

More details to follow as they are developped.

It’ll be very interesting to see if this effort can move the ball in Virginia’s electoral politics and in policy issues in the General Assembly.

Full Disclosure: I was asked and volunteered to be on the Steering Committee. Hope my business travel doesn’t take me out of state in early November.

Bob Gibson with the Charlottesville Daily Progress points to an alarming sideline conflict between the Senate and House budget negotiators in the General Assembly. House Republicans have inserted budget language that would ban funding for “any entity” — including the University of Virginia and Virginia Commonwealth University — “that conducts human stem cell research.”

Two UVa professors of neurological surgery — Roy C. Ogle and Gary K. Owens — are conducting embryonic stem cell research in the areas of bone regeneration and smooth muscle research. Ogle, says Gibson, is an expert in skull reconstructive surgery.

Gibson relies upon Del. Brian J. Moran, D-Alexandria, who denounces the House action as “irresponsible,” as at least one of his sources, so it’s conceivable that we’re not getting the full story. But if the account is substantially accurate — and Gibson seems to be a reliable reporter — I find the House action mystifying. Even President George W. Bush’s “ban” of stem cell research prohibits only the federal funding of stem cell research, and it allows exemptions for pre-existing lines of stem cells. Apparently, the House budget language would go beyond prohibiting the application of state funds for stem cell research and — can this possibly be true? — would eliminate all state support for the universities outright.

If such budget language were enacted, UVa and VCU could not possibly absorb the loss of state funding, so they would have no choice but to kill the research programs. That’s called extortion. The stem cell ban is also… how shall I put this delicately… not an astute move politically.

By positioning the House far to the right of President Bush on the stem cell issue, such punitive budget language would hand the state Senate an issue which to flay the House in the budget negotiations — look how out of control these guys are! — and the Democrats an issue with which to flay the GOP at the polls. The stem-cell measure needs to be deep-sixed as quickly as possible before the story goes mainstream and creates a debacle.