Bacon's Rebellion

In another major indication of new thinking about transportation, we now hear that Sen. Marty Williams, R-Newport News, is no longer so steadfast in his support for a proposed Third Crossing that would link Norfolk with Newport News. Reports the Daily Press:

The proposed third crossing is so large and expensive that it is hamstringing all other efforts to fix the region’s overworked transportation network and is unlikely to ever be built, the chairman of the Senate Transportation Committee said Tuesday.

“If you’ve got an 800-pound gorilla, you’re hesitant to tackle it and everything else goes wanting,” [Williams] said during a legislative strategy session with the Hampton City Council. “In reality, we need to get the third crossing off the table. … It’s probably going to fall off the table under its own weight.”

Williams did not completely write off the project, but his bleak outlook is another swing in the momentum turning against the long-discussed transportation project.

The Third Crossing is the most expensive component of the $4.5 billion package of transportation improvements sought by Hampton Roads legislators. Virginia Port Authority officials regard it as critical to maintaining the competitiveness of Virginia ports. The crossing also would expedite the evacuation of south Hampton Roads residents during a major hurricane.

The GOP in the House of Delegates is promising an “extreme makeover” of Virginia’s transportation system when the General Assembly reconvenes in a month, reports Garren Shipley with the Northern Virginia Daily.

The delegates have absorbed the results of the recent Mason-Dixon poll that showed voters had little appetite for higher taxes. During a recent retreat, they explored a range of new policy options. Shipley quotes Del. Clay Athey, R-Front Royal, as saying, “The people of Virginia believe that we have enough money to have a fine transportation system. The message we’re getting [from voters] is ‘fix it with some innovative ideas.’”

Some of the ideas under consideration:

• Give control of secondary road system in urban areas back to county governments, along with funding from what was the Virginia Department of Transportation’s budget. VDOT would remain responsible for interstate highways and primary routes. The transfer of responsibility, says Athey, “clearly ties those decisions [together], land use and transportation.”
• Experiment with congestion-pricing tolls on gridlocked stretches of Interstate. Raising money would be a secondary goal. The main purpose would be to incentivize drivers to drive less on bottlenecked roads during periods of peak traffic.
• Prioritize transportation projects on a Return on Investment basis. In other words, give funding preference to projects that provide the most congestion relief per dollar spent. Projects that deliver the most “bang for the buck” would get the money, Athey says. Mass transit and rail projects would have to compete on an equal basis with roads.

The delegates are to be applauded for their serious outside-the-box thinking. These ideas would constitute the most significant change in state transportation policy in my memory, surpassing even the introduction of public-private partnerships into the transportation policy mix.

As readers of Bacon’s Rebellion know, these ideas, as significant as they are, represent only a first step down a long path. But at least these proposals would get Virginia moving down the right path. The latter two ideas are ones that we have been calling for, and the first is one we wish we had. The special transportation session next month will be fascinating to watch.

From today’s Wall Street Journal: The New Jersey state Assembly has passed a bill designating a sandy loam called “Downer soil” as the official state dirt of the Garden State. Dirt often gets a bad rap. But according to David Friedman, who runs the Ocean County soil-conservation district, “It connects plants and animals and water and everything.”

While New Jersey gets front-page articles in the Wall Street Journal about its state dirt, Virginia lawmakers stand by and twiddle their thumbs. To my knowledge, Virginia’s General Assembly hasn’t even thought of designating a state dirt, much less come up with a candidate … much less hold hearings or start building a statewide consensus. Heck, we still can’t even agree on a state song.

The Old Dominion does have a state bird (the cardinal), a state dog (the American fox hound), a state insect (the Tiger Swallowtail Butterfly), a state fish (the brook trout), a state shell (the oyster), a state flower (the American Dogwood), and a state flower (also the American Dogwood). We have a state dance (the square dance), a state boat (the Chesapeake Bay deadrise), a state beverage (milk), and even a state fossil — Chesapecten jeffersonius, a shell named for Thomas Jefferson and Chesapeake Bay.

If we can have a state fossil, I say it’s high time that we, too, have a state soil. I’m just not sure what to name it. I’m thinking…. red clay… or maybe… sand. Whatever we choose, we’d better get moving, or you can be darn sure that North Carolina and Maryland will beat us to the better ones. Do Bacon’s Rebellion readers have any other candidates?

Increases in school enrollment over the next five years will cost the Commonwealth of Virginia at least $275 million in additional education costs, assuming that the average annual cost per student remains the same, about $9,200 — which, of course, it won’t. The growth will be fueled by the addition of 30,000 new students, the result of large birth cohorts and in-migration, according to the latest projections by the Demographics & Workforce Section of the Weldon Cooper Center at the University of Virginia.

Weldon Cooper estimated the added costs to be spread as follows:

Virginia state – $120 million
Local school divisions – $136 million
U.S. government – $19 million.

(Photo credit: Southern Virginia University.)

Gov. Timothy M. Kaine has signed an executive order creating a Commission on Health Reform. that will recommend reforms in the Virginia healthcare sector. Said Kaine in a press release today: “With more than one million Virginians lacking healthcare coverage, and growing shortages of health professionals in all disciplines across the Commonwealth and the nation, we must look for creative ways to further improve the delivery of healthcare to Virginians.”

The Commission is tasked with identifying national best practices at the state level with emphasis on “access, quality, and safety of care,” as well as “long-term care and affordability.” Marilyn Tavenner, Secretary of Health and Human Resources and a former hospital executive, will head the commission.

Republic Property Trust has agreed to acquire the Dulles Park Technology Center from Cornerstone Real Estate Advisors for approximately $48.3 million. The five-story, Class A office building fronts the Dulles Toll and is located within one city block of the proposed Route 28 Metrorail Station.

States the company in a press release: “Based on a preliminary analysis of existing and comprehensive plan zoning densities for the Metrorail Station areas, the company believes that, by combining the land areas of Dulles Park and [its adjacent Campus at Dulles Technology Center] properties, it can secure additional office and mixed-use development on the property. The company intends to pursue increased densities for the site.”

The promise of higher densities in proximity to a Metro station is a powerful combo, even if that promise is still uncertain and years in the future.

The Kaine administration has disassociated itself from Patrick Michaels, a University of Virginia environmental sciences professor and state climatologist. “Generally, it is safe to say that Pat Michaels doesn’t represent the governor’s opinion on global warming,” Delacey Skinner, Kaine’s director of communications, told the Charlottesville Daily Progress. “He doesn’t speak for the state. He doesn’t speak for the Governor.”

Michaels is known nationally as one of the more vocal skeptics of global-warming alarmism.

Presumably, Skinner’s statement means that Gov. Kaine embraces many or all of the global warming fears circulated in the environmental community. As I’ve explained in an earlier post, the tag “global warming” covers a series of related propositions, some of which are more controversial than others: that average global temperatures are warming, that the warming is caused by human impact on the environment, that rising temperatures will be disastrous for biological diversity and humankind, and that changes in the economies of industrialized nations is called for to slow the pace of warming.

(Update: I checked with Kaine spokesman Kevin Hall, who explained that Skinner’s comments cannot be construed as an explication of Gov. Kaine’s thinking on global warming. She was simply making it clear that, though designated the state climatologist, Michaels was not a gubernatorial appointee. Accordingly, I have revised some of the comments that follow.)

I would be interested to know Gov. Kaine’s views on global warming and the extent to which they inform his thinking about (a) state energy policy, and (b) transportation and land use. Questions:

Does Gov. Kaine accept the estimate that the vast majority of energy consumption in Virginia — to the tune of 80 percent (see Ed Risse’s estimate in “Soft Consumption Paths,” August 7, 2006) — is directly tied to the state’s energy-intensive transportation system and patterns of land use?

Does Gov. Kaine accept the proposition that to curtail the greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to global warming, Virginia should embrace more energy-efficient transportation systems and land use patterns?

Will Gov. Kaine inject global-warming perspectives into the statewide energy study his administration is responsible for producing next year?

(For the record, while I think that the fears of global warming have been hyped shamelessly in some quarters, I would encourage the state to adopt energy-efficient transportation and land use strategies as a way to reduce Virginians’ dependence upon foreign oil, create more economic activity locally and reduce air and water pollution. If we can reduce greenhouse gas emissions at the same time, that’s a bonus.)

If there was any doubt regarding the propensity of people who live near Metro stations to actually ride the Metro, let those doubts be dispelled. Heed Examiner.com (with my emphasis added):

Nearly 1 in 3 residents who live or work within a half-mile of a Metro station use the rail system daily, according to a new study that is likely to provide more fuel to efforts to develop around the region’s 86 stations.

The study, released by the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority, also showed that more than half of residents who live and or work within one-quarter mile also choose public transportation over their cars.

Metro officials surveyed 1,950 people who lived, worked or visited other businesses within a half-mile of 13 rail stations. In 1989, just 18 percent of those who worked near a station reported using the subway to get to work. And while the numbers are less dramatic for those who live near a station, which jumped from 45 percent in 1989 to 54 percent this year, the volume of customers has increased significantly. Ridership has jumped 43 percent since 1990, officials said, with the addition of just two new stations.

One of the recurring debates on this blog addresses the extent to which growth should “pay its own way” — or, to be more specific, the extent to which developers should cover the capital costs of public investments such as road improvements, schools, fire, police, libraries and other public facilities — a number that could reach $90,000 to $100,000 per dwelling unit in Northern Virginia.

There’s a raging case study in the South Dulles area of Loudoun County, where Greenvest is proposing some $800 million in proffers and $200 million in Community Development Authority funding over the 20-year life of the project. Just think of that: One billion dollars in private-sector contributions, over and above the taxes that developers, business tenants and homeowners normally pay in taxes to fund the cost of local government.

In my latest column, “Growth that Pays for Itself,” I delve into the pros and cons of the Greenvest proposals. What I find ironic is that Greenvest has taken on so much public cost that it increases the risk that its projects will fail financially — at least its critics see it that way. It’s kind of a damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don’t thing. If the proffers are too small, you’re not paying your fair share. If they’re too big, you run the risk of failure. That makes it pretty tough to get anything built.

To my mind, the best argument against the project is one the critics I talked to didn’t raise: Greenvest has not designed its South Dulles projects from the ground up with transportation-efficiency in mind. To Greenvest’s credit, the projects are mixed use, with pedestrian-friendly elements, and Greenvest is willing to proffer some 15 transit buses. Also to Greenvest’s credit, development in the South Dulles area would provide elements of what Ed Risse calls a balanced community, with a mix of residential, commercial and amenities — even a satellite campus of George Mason University (land donated by Greenvest) and an Inova hospital facility on a neighboring property.

But the prospect of gridlock in that corner of Northern Virginia is so great that any development in any location must make transportation mitigation a top priority. That includes not only contributing to road improvements, as Greenvest proposes, but an aggressive traffic demand management program — encompassing, walking, biking, vans, buses, carpools and telework — to reduce the number and length of car trips.

I will continue to track the Greenvest proposal as it plays out this fall.

(Rendering shows the proposed Arcola project town center and GMU satellite campus.)

In his latest “Blogology” profile, Conaway Haskins profiles Chad Dotson, one of the grandfathers of Virginia blogging. If you read Bacon’s Rebellion, you’ve no doubt read Commonwealth Conservative, consulting his family-oriented movie reviews, chuckling at his photo caption contests and admiring his ability to parse politics with an incredible economy with words. Find out more about the man behind the blog. Read Conaway’s interview here.

Another edition of Bacon’s Rebellion. You can read the August 7, 2006, edition here.

The peasants persist in thinking for themselves, as can be seen in the following:

Growth that Pays for Itself
Greenvest’s proposed $1.3 billion development in Loudoun County would contribute $1 billion toward roads, schools and public facilities. A great deal for the public? Not everyone thinks so.
by James A. Bacon

Beach Week
Reading might be a lot safer than swimming outside of Virginia this year.
by Doug Koelemay

Soft Consumption Paths
Energy consumption in the United States is growing at an unsustainable rate — and we’re running out of time before a crash landing. We need to think seriously and comprehensively about conservation.
by EM Risse

The Croesus Trap
More money won’t fix a broken transportation system. But the combination of privatization and tolls can build a lot of roads in Virginia.
by Geoffrey Segal

Metro Monomania
Tom Davis is taking big political risks to funnel $3 billion into the Washington Metro. Why?
by Phillip Rodokanakis

Putting Taxes to Work
Let’s use the state budget surplus to set up Commonwealth Trust accounts, funds every citizen can use to offset a portion of their health care expenses.
by James Atticus Bowden

Save the Planet — Stay Home!
In an Internet-friendly state like Virginia, there is no excuse for so many people clogging the roads when they could be telecommuting.
by Joanna Hanks and Fred Williamson

Ozzie and Harriet Were Idiots!
And so were our teachers 50 years ago. The issue isn’t school funding formulae: The entire big government school culture must go! We must return to family-based schooling.
by Mike Smith

Nice & Curious Questions
Emu in Virginia: Exotic Beasts in the Old Dominion
by Edwin S. Clay III and Patricia Bangs

Blogology
Commonwealth Conservative: Chad Dotson
by Conaway Haskins

Tuition and fees for undergraduates at Virginia’s four-year colleges increased an average of 9.3 percent, reports the Associated Press. Room and board charges, about half the cost of a college education, increased “only” 6.0 percent.

The Consumer Price Index from June 2005 to June 2006 increased 4.5 percent. The cost of food and beverages was up 2.2 percent and housing 4.2 percent over the same period.

We’ve heard all the excuses about tuition increases — education is a labor-intensive business, and colleges have to compete for academic talent. But how about room and board? How can room and board at Virginia colleges be increasing at twice the rate of inflation in food and housing?

Jim Webb is taking some heat for moving away from his slogan “Born Fighting.” Well, he won’t get any heat from this quarter. I think it’s about time.

For one thing, I don’t think the slogan helps him politically with the sector of the voter population he needs most to attract — the majority who are women.

More importantly, as I said yesterday in a blog post on the subject of the language of politics, it’s time to move away from words of war to words of discourse.

Now some will decry this suggestion as a move to “feminize” politics. And, you know what? If changing fighting to conversing, division to discourse, and confrontation to conversation is a “feminine” objective, I’m proud to be feminine!

Language is powerful. Ask Karl Rove and his cohort Frank Luntz.

Who can doubt that some of the heated rhetoric being used in public and private debates on the Marshall/Newman amendment or the immigration issue has an impact on the behavior of those, particularly children, who hear the language of fear and division? Who can doubt that language that consistently makes people “other” or “less than” invites people, especially children, to see the groups attacked as powerless and vulnerable?

As the words of the song in South Pacific go, “you have to be carefully taught” to hate.

We have seen what can happen when folks feel empowered by words to action. Just ask the two men who live in Aldie in Loudoun County whose property was vandalized and tagged with the word “fag”.

We can engage in civil debate. I heard one yesterday on a Sunday morning news show between between surrogates for Joe Lieberman and Ned Lamont.

And we can refuse to participate in “hate” and the language of hate. Read this quote from Buck O’Neil, a self-described “proud … Negro League ballplayer,” on the occasion of the induction this week of 17 Negro leaguers and Negro leagues executives into the National Baseball Hall of Fame:

And I tell you what: They always said to me, “Buck, I know you hate people for what they did to you or what they did to your folks.” I said, “No, man, I never learned to hate.”

I hate cancer. Cancer killed my mother. My wife died 10 years ago of cancer. I hate AIDS. A good friend of mine died of AIDS three months ago. I hate AIDS. But I can’t hate a human being, because my God never made anything so ugly. Now, you can be ugly if you want to, but God didn’t make you that way.

Most importantly, we can stand up and speak out against violence and words of violence, and against hate and words of hate whenever they appear.

I challenge those who would write discrimination into our constitution to stand publicly with the men of Aldie against the hate that visited them at their home.

I challenge those who would make Virginia the “least hospitable place in the universe for illegal immigrants” to ensure that the temper of their tone doesn’t lead to the same place in which the Aldie men found themselves: homes damaged and neighborhoods torn by division and fear of “other.”

Now in the interest of full disclosure, let me repeat what’s in my profile: I am the paid campaign manager for The Commonwealth Coalition which opposes the Marshall/Newman amendment and I am paid by the Virginia coalition of Latino Organizations to lobby for reasoned consideration of laws that affect the immigrant community.

But my passion here is personal. My husband is Puerto Rican and my namesake (the third generation Claire Guthrie) is half Chinese. I want them both to be able to go to school or work without fear of discrimination; to live where they want to live without fear of being “alienized” as other; to live peacefully in the “God’s mix” that is America. I want these same things for my friends who are members of the GLBT community.

So, I see changing “Born Fighting” to another less confrontational, and, hopefully, inspiring slogan as a small step in the direction of changing the language of politics to a less divisive and polarizing model.

Virginia has plenty of company — not just in the United States but in the U.K. — when it comes to grappling with traffic congestion. Many of the remedies sound the same, as does the public response. According to the BBC, Transport Secretary Douglas Alexander is seeking authority to create toll roads across the UK. Drivers would be charged on a pay-as-you-go basis with black boxes in their cars tracking how far they drive on toll roads.

One wrinkle not seen in the U.S. is the idea of setting national standards to prevent confusion from a variety of local pricing schemes. But the concerns of the public sound remarkably familiar. Says Foad Nouri of London: “This is another tax on drivers without noticeable improvement in quality or affordability of public transport, especially rail travel which must help easing the congestion on roads.”

Ian Wernham, of Marlow: “This is just another way of taxing the motorist.. … Telling people not use their car is like saying don’t use electric light we’ve got to back to using candles!”

And Ian Beedell of Crawley: “There should be concern [about] the power of the government to monitor free and legal individual movement with the proposed ‘black boxes’ that will almost certainly infringe civil liberties.”

For a while, there seemed no limit to the proffers that some developers were willing to make in order to gain rezonings and increased densities from for their projects. Now, it seems, the slow-down in the Northern Virginia real estate sector is changing the calculus of development. Reports Sandhya Somashekhar with the Washington Post:

Centex Homes of Dallas, one of the nation’s largest developers, said it can no longer afford to offer Warrenton $22 million — almost half the town’s annual budget — to approve 300 luxury homes for seniors within its borders in Fauquier County. The developer notified Warrenton officials in a letter received Thursday.

“It was possible to consider such [an offer] as remotely feasible only in a rising market, where Centex could hope to make a reasonable return on its very substantial investment,” wrote Robert K. Davis, the company’s division president. “[We] would not have made that agreement had it been possible to predict the timing of the current residential downturn.”

The deal would have been the most generous cash donation of its kind in state history, industry officials said. Warrenton would have collected nearly $74,000 a home, more than double what Fauquier usually receives from a developer.