Bacon's Rebellion

The Virginia blogosphere has suffered grievous losses with the departure of veteran bloggers Norm Leahy and Conaway Haskins, but there is no lack of young pretenders to replace them. Here are some of the new blogs that I have come across:

Gray’s Commonwealth Gazette, a Virginia-focused blog maintained by Rick Gray, a Chesterfield County Democrat-turned-Republican-turned-independent.

Bored Young Professionals, maintained by two young, Democratic bloggers, with an emphasis on state politics and policy.

The Richmond Democrat, blog maintained by — surprise — a Richmond Democrat, with emphasis on state politics and policy.

The Ward View, a Republican blog maintained by the pseudonymous Ward Smythe, bills itself as “less partisan, more snark.”

(If any of these bloggers don’t like my thumb-nail descriptions, please let me know.)

Whoo, it’s been a long weekend — a “long march,” to borrow some revolutionary symbolism. I cranked out two full-length columns and edited/pasted up more than the normal number of columns. But it’s been worth it. We have some very strong content.

The Jan. 8, 2007, edition of the Bacon’s Rebellion e-zine is now online. But don’t count on the blog to remind you — subscribe for free and make sure you don’t miss an issue. Here’s this edition’s line up:

The Oregon Solution
Don’t take it on my word that mileage fees and congestion charges are the best replacement for the faltering gas tax. See what they’re saying in the land of Birkenstocks and lumberjacks.
by James A. Bacon

When All Else Fails, Try Capitalism
Community leaders in Tysons Corner are at wit’s end to find ways to reduce traffic congestion. One tool they haven’t considered is congestion pricing. Here’s how such a scheme might work.
by James A. Bacon

Transparency and Truthiness
More of one, less of the other, could help Virginia meet its transportation responsibilities in 2007.
by Doug Koelemay

Can’t Take This — Not Another Day!
Virginia politicians have finally discovered the “land use” word — they just don’t know what it means. Their so-called reforms will solve nothing.
by EM Risse

Summary of TRILO-G
Backgrounder: TRILO-G combines “The Shape of the Future”, “BRIDGES”, and “ACTION” to provide understanding of human settlement patterns, current commentary and a handbook for citizen action.
by EM Risse

Pre-K Politics
The Kaine administration has tipped its hand: It wants to make pre-K universal not because middle-class kids need it but to buy public support for an expansion of the program.
by Chris Braunlich

Our Humblest Apologies
While we’re begging forgiveness for slavery, genocide and other assorted sins of our ancestors, there are a few other offenses that Virginians should express contrition for.
by James Atticus Bowden

Grown-Up Follies
To Washington Post editorial writers, the “grown ups” support higher taxes to solve Virginia’s transportation quandary. Funny how the Post is the one throwing temper tantrums.
by Phil Rodokanakis

Minimum Wage, Everyone Pays
The minimum wage hurts small business, costs poor people jobs, and drives up costs. The winners are those hostile to competitive capitalism.
by Mike Smith

To Save the GOP, Curb Sprawl
The only way Republicans can preserve control of the General Assembly is to tame sprawl and keep taxes low. The House plan doesn’t measure up.
by Mitchell Smiley

Nice & Curious Questions
Skeletons in the Closet: Bones of Virginia
by Edwin S. Clay III and Patricia Bangs

A Chat with Mark Dixon, CEO of Regus Group
This is the first of three Q&As with commercial real estate visionaries exploring the changing relationship between workers and the workplace.
by James A. Bacon

I ran into Jeff Schapiro at a cocktail party last night and had a long, entertaining chat. Jeff, with whom I worked at Virginia Business magazine some 20 years ago before he joined the political staff at the Richmond Times-Dispatch, is truly one of the great conversationalists of all time. He’s smart, engaging and well informed. Our discussions ranged from payday lending to two-term governors. Jeff has keen insight into the workings of the state capitol, and he may be the savviest reporter in the capitol press corps.

That’s why it baffled me this morning to see the article that he and Michael Hardy had composed for the T-D‘s pre-General Assembly coverage. Once again, the duo highlighted the looming transportation battle as a purely fiscal duel with potential political consequences.

A fiscal fix for roads and rail loom largest for Republicans in the traffic-clogged Washington suburbs, bulwark of the new Democratic ascendancy. … Democrats are salivating over the prospect of another year of legislative gridlock over transportation, believing it could tip the Virginia Senate their way as well as increase their numbers in the House.

As Bacon’s Rebellion readers are keenly aware, the House of Delegates has proposed a three-pronged package of reforms that, whatever you think of its merits, would amount to the most far-reaching overhaul of zoning law and reallocation of state/local responsibility for roads in a half century. The House leaders are not automotons mouthing, “No new taxes.” They argue that any comprehensive plan to fix transportation requires more than money, and that land use reforms must be part of any transportation solution.

Has someone on the T-D copy desk banned the words “land use,” perhaps? The words did not appear anywhere in the Hardy-Schapiro story today. Nor did they show up in a lengthy companion piece by Olympia Meola about local government legislative priorities. (Imagine: a story about local government priorities without mentioning the movement to transform the way zoning works!) Nor did “land use” make into in a list of “other proposals” prepared by Pamela Stallsmith. I will say this at least: The T-D reporters weren’t displaying partisan bias. Not only did they act as if the House bills didn’t exist, they ignored Gov. Timothy M. Kaine’s controversial proposal to give local governments more power to reject rezoning projects that would make traffic congestion worse.

The T-D legislative wrap-up touched upon tough-on-crime bills, payday lending, the Kelo decision, Chesapeake Bay clean-up, abortion, divorce, adultery, shoplifting, electric rates and even a bill to designate the ginger gold apple the official state fruit. But the bills that would transform the way local governments management growth — nada.

Contrast the T-D coverage with the Washington Post’s. Michael Shear dedicated his entire pre-General Assembly take-out to the growth management debate.

Rapid growth has become entangled in the bitter legislative debate over the state’s traffic problem. And lawmakers fear Virginians will punish anyone who refuses to vote to slow sprawl during the 2007 General Assembly session, which begins Wednesday.

… The result is a slew of legislation from Republicans and Democrats, including House Speaker William J. Howell (R-Stafford) and Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D), aimed at reducing traffic congestion by better managing growth.

Now, I’ll admit that the transportation/land use issue is more all-consuming in the WaPo circulation area than it is in the T-D’s. But it’s impossible to understand the legislative dynamics of the 2007 General Assembly session without at least acknowledging that the growth management debate in Northern Virginia and, to a lesser degree, Hampton Roads is driving the transportation debate.

Here is more response to Gov. Timothy M. Kaine’s transportation/land use package, none of it favorable. If there’s any consolation for the Governor, it’s that his opponents are not united in their criticisms — they are focusing on different aspects of his plan.

The Home Builders Association of Virginia is blasting the Governor’s main land use reform as the equivalent of an Adequate Public Facilities requirement for roads. States the HBAV in a prepared statement:

The concept of requiring public roads and other public facilities (public schools, fire and rescue, public libraries, public water and sewer, etc.) to be in place prior to residential or commercial development is a flawed concept. It’s biggest fallacy it that it completely ignores the reality of growth and development. In the natural order of development, the construction of public roads follows residential and commercial growth. Localities neither have the vision nor the resources to build roads to nowhere, which APF growth management authority would require.

The Kaine plan would allow localities to reject rezoning projects that would overwhelm local roads with traffic. When applied elsewhere in the country, the Home Builders contend, the concept has had three dire consequences. It has:

• Restricted the supply of new housing, driving up the cost of new and existing housing,
• Worsened sprawl by forcing employees working in the inner suburbs to seek affordable housing at greater distances from the major job centers, and
• Diminished quality of life by making mothers and fathers spend more time commuting to and from work.

Kaine’s “quick fix,” concludes the Home Builder statement, “will only exacerbate the transportation crisis in Virginia through the exportation of unwanted housing to the more rural areas of the state, clogging those roads.”

Meanwhile, Americans for Prosperity-Virginia have denounced the tax increase proposed by the Governor. In a prepared statement, the small-government lobbying group said:

We’re pleased that Governor Kaine has recognized the importance of locking the transportation trust fund and using the state surplus for one-time capital expenditures, solutions which Americans for Prosperity has long-supported. But taxpayers across Virginia are wondering: what part of ‘no new taxes’ did Governor Kaine not understand?

The Times-Dispatch has dredged up a perennial favorite: Does Virginia need a two-term governor? Tyler Whitley polled Virginia’s former governors and found them to be divided on the point — and not along party lines.

Former Govs. Charles Robb and George Allen prefer the status quo. Former Govs. Gerald Baliles and Linwood Holton favor a single, six-year term for governor. And former Govs. L. Douglas Wilder, Jim Gilmore and Mark R. Warner like two, four-year terms.

Here’s what would have helped the story immeasurably: Give us examples of how a six-year or two-term governorship could have helped. What policy initiatives or reforms did Jim Gilmore or Mark Warner leave undone as a result of having departed after four years? Conversely, it would have helped to cite examples of where a governor was hopeless mucking things up and people were saying, “Thank God we got rid of that idiot after only four years — it would have been a disaster if we’d been stuck with him for six.”

Data courtesy of Virginiaperforms.com: Virginia’s overall crime rate is only 60 percent of the national average, and significantly lower than our neighboring states of Maryland and North Carolina (gloat! gloat!)

However, pockets of unpleasantness do stand out: the cities of Richmond, Roanoke and Petersburg, most all of Hampton Roads and… Caroline County?

Coy Barefoot, communications director at the Sorensen Institute, interviewed me Tuesday about transportation issues in the upcoming session of the General Assembly for his WINA radio show. Forget Rush Limbaugh — even Richmond radio yakker Mac Watson is safe with his job.

It’s funny how your perspective changes. As I was speaking, I thought I was pretty fluid and articulate. But as I listen to myself now, I go, egads, I sound like that? I say “uh” that often?

But it’s the quality of the content that matters, right? The same trenchant analysis you expect from Bacon’s Rebellion is all there! If the interface below doesn’t work, go to this page on the Charlottesville Podcast Network website.

powered by ODEO

I’ll update reactions to the Kaine transportation package as information comes out.

Environmental/conservation community: The first e-mail to my inbox came a press release from a coalition of environmental and conservation groups: Withholding comment on most of the Governor’s package, they praised the provision that would empower local governments to block rezoning projects that would overwhelm local/regional roads. (I will link to the full text when the press release is posted online.)

“Nothing has harnessed public frustration over out-of-control growth and won public support like Governor Kaine’s promise to ensure local governments and citizens have the ‘power to say no,’” said Lisa Guthrie, Executive Director of the Virginia League of Conservation Voters.

House of Delegates: The House leadership has responded negatively to the Kaine plan, focusing on the proposed tax increase rather than opportunities for land use reform. Said Del. Leo Wardrup, R-Virginia Beach, chairman of the House transportation committee (no link):

It’s déjà vu all over again. It seems like just yesterday this Governor was breaking is campaign promise to not raise taxes less than a week after taking his inaugural oath. But here he is again, proposing a huge statewide tax increase that he promoted in town hall meetings across the state and still failed to win public or legislative support. It’s perplexing that he so readily abandoned a central campaign promise against higher taxes, yet remains adamantly opposed to any proposal that doesn’t
include a statewide tax increase.

From the Times-Dispatch:

Del. M. Kirkland Cox, R-Colonial Heights, declared that the governor “has become irrelevant to the transportation debate. He’s been AWOL since last January.” His plan is “not even warmed-over leftovers but just remnants pulled out of the refrigerator,” said Cox, a budget negotiator and leading force in the House GOP caucus.

From the Washington Post:

Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling (R) said Kaine’s transportation proposal “relies on the same ideas that have proven unsuccessful in the past. . . . While the people of Virginia want something done about transportation, they are not prepared to pay higher taxes, either.” …

“I don’t know how you could argue with that,” former Fairfax Chamber of Commerce chairman Michael Anzilotti said after the governor’s speech. “You cannot get through this session again without getting something done. We’re not going to tolerate it.”

John B. Townsend II, a spokesman for AAA Mid-Atlantic, said, “This year, Governor Kaine’s transportation revenue proposal will give [lawmakers] the chance to redeem themselves and, if enacted, will spare commuters from the consequences of Virginia’s worsening transportation funding crisis.”

And David Guernsey, chairman of the Northern Virginia Transportation Alliance, said reluctant lawmakers should think twice before rejecting Kaine’s proposals out of hand.

From the Roanoke Times:

Sen. Charles Hawkins, R-Chatham, called Kaine’s revised proposal “a good start.” Hawkins, the chief sponsor of last year’s Senate transportation package, said lawmakers “need to get the funding in place this year.”

“Even the people in the rural areas are starting to realize what the impact of doing nothing is going to have on us,” Hawkins said.

Gov. Timothy M. Kaine has unveiled his package of proposed transportation/land use reforms, reprising some familiar themes but adding some new ones. (See his press release here.) Among the new initiatives:

• Subdivision streets. One proposal, bearing similarities to a bill introduced by the House of Delegates, would tighten criteria for accepting subdivision streets into the state highway system. Provisions would ensure that roads are well built and, where appropriate, properly integrated with adjacent development before the state accepts the responsibility to maintain them.
• Corridor management. A second proposal would protect existing roads from unnecessary curb cuts and turning movements that disrupt traffic flows. (For details on Kaine administration thinking, see our past post, “Corroding Corridors.”)

Transportation accountability. The Governor also plugged the theme of “transportation accountability,” renewing his call to “lock up” the Transportation Trust Fund. Previous legislatures have raided the trust fund to balance the budget, and in 2005 his gubernatorial campaign, Kaine vowed not to raise transportation taxes until there were constitutional guarantees protecting any new monies raised for transportation. However, the General Assembly failed to enact a measure. Said Kaine:

Every transportation revenue bill I introduced has contained an enactment clause stating that the measure will expire if the money is every used for any purpose other than transportation. However, it is time for the House of Delegates and State Senate to reconcile their differing versions of this bill so we can pass a constitutional amendment locking up the Transportation Trust Fund.

Kaine also alluded to his newly appointed Transportation Accountability Commission, which is charged with developing performance standards to evaluate the on-going performance of Virginia’s transportation agencies and professionals.

The Kaine transportation/land use package also contains familiar ideas that didn’t survive last year’s General Assembly sessions.

• Growth controls. One proposal would give local governments the power to deny rezoning requests where the transportation capacity is lacking to support the projected increase in traffic. This is the spinster sister of legislation that did pass last year, providing for VDOT to conduct comprehensive traffic impact studies of major rezoning projects.
• Tax increases. The Kaine $850 million transportation revenue package is “closely related” to last year’s package, including: (a) dedicating existing auto insurance premium taxes to transportation, (b) raising the sales tax on vehicles from 3 percent to 5 percent, (c) imposing an abuser fee on reckless drivers, (d) increasing the vehicle registration fee by $30 a year, and (e) increaes the registration fee for heavy trucks.

For details on the tax package, click here.

Public policy wonks and gurus in Virginia now have an incredible new toy to play with — the Virginia Performs website. Thank you, Gov. Kaine, for best Christmas present ever! (Technically, yesterday was the ninth day of the “Twelve Days of Christmas.”)

Virginia Performs, developed in partnership with the Council on Virginia’s Future, benchmarks Virginia against other states for about 50 crucial economic, social and government indicators. Most of the statistics were available to anyone who knew where to dig them up, but the website brings them together in one convenient place.

Best of all, the website provides a super-cool map-making capability that displays in a glance how the indicators vary by county or region. For example, to pick an indicator totally at random, here is a map showing where the incidence of the maltreatment of children is the highest (the number of cases per 1,000 children):

Code:
Pale green: 5.36 – 9.82 cases
Pale blue: 9.82 – 14.65
Blue: 14.65 – 21.66

I would offer one modest suggestion. The benchmarking tables compare Virginia to neighboring states and a single “best performing” state. It would be really helpful if the web designers could go the extra mile and provide downloadable Excel spreadsheets with data for all states. Surely, they’ve gathered all the data and loaded it onto a spreadsheet already. All they need to do is make the spreadsheet downloadable.

Otherwise the website is extremely well done. Kudos to those who dreamed up the project and to those who executed it.

Ho, hum. Virginia ranks No. 1 in another national survey. According to Education Week, Virginia is the state where children have the greatest opportunities to succeed. The report compared states based on 13 factors, including parents’ education, student test scores, the percentage of English-speaking residents and the percentage of adults working full time.

Virginia’s favorable ranking does not mean Virginia’s K-12 school system is tops in the country. Virginia’s educational policies do align pretty well with those advocated by Education Week, and student test scores are higher than the national average. But the affluence and educational achievement of Virginia’s population — especially in Northern Virginia — was critical to vaulting the Commonwealth to the top.

(See the Virginian-Pilot article here, and the Education Week Virginia profile here. Thanks to alert reader Jim Wamsley for pointing me to these resources.)

Alfred Rovai, a Regent University professor of education quoted by the Pilot, summed up my reaction to the report:

“If Virginia comes out No. 1, Virginia should also come out No. 1 on student outcomes,” he said. One possibility is that the report isn’t considering the correct factors, he said. Another possibility is that the educational system in Virginia isn’t doing as well as other factors suggest it should, he said.

“There’s a lot of cause to be happy and feel we’re doing a good job,” Rovai said, “but we should use this report as a launching pad to ask some penetrating questions.”

Ya leave town a couple of days to visit to the in-laws, and what happens? The Governor sneaks in a couple of announcements regarding transportation and land use policy! Good thing I eyeballed the Governor’s latest press releases, or this news might have slipped by me completely.

Actually, it’s pretty boring if you’re not a transportation junky, but here it is for the record.

First, on Dec. 8, Gov. Timothy M. Kaine appointed 20 members to the newly created Transportation Accountability Commission — the existence of which I was previously unaware. Established by Executive Order, the commission will “ensure that the state’s transportation agencies deliver maximum value for taxpayers, implement rigorous management standards, and promote wise investments.”

Said Kaine:

We remain committed to a comprehensive strategy for transportation that includes a continued focus on reform and increased accountability for our transportation agencies. This [is] part of an overall emphasis that includes improving the coordination between land use and transportation planning, and providing additional needed resources required to build, operate, and maintain a modern transportation network.

Norfolk Southern executive James A. Squires will head the commission.

Second, on Dec. 29, Gov. Kaine announced publication of a final traffic impact analysis regulation designed to improve the coordination of transportation and land use policies. States the press release:

The regulation establishes statewide standards to ensure that a traffic impact analysis is performed when land use decisions with potentially significant impacts on the state-controlled transportation network are being considered by local governments. It also formalizes the Virginia Department of Transportation’s (VDOT) role in working with localities to analyze regional traffic impacts as local officials consider land use proposals. …

An extensive program of outreach and training for state, local and industry stakeholders will begin next spring, and VDOT will implement the regulation on a phased basis beginning next July. Full implementation of the regulation will occur over the course of the next two years.

Norm Leahy, author of One Man’s Trash, has posted his last post. “The time has come to move on,” he says.

What a shame. Norm, who hails from the advertising business, was arguably the sharpest, wittiest writer in the Virginia blogosphere. He brought maturity to the field, elevating the level of discourse and setting high standards for the rest of us to aspire to.

Norm didn’t say why he was leaving, but I would speculate that he just got worn out. Posting two or three well-crafted pieces of commentary every day takes a lot of time and work. Editorial writers at MSM newspapers get paid full-time salaries for producing the same volume and quality of copy that Norm did. He kept at it for four years. But at some point, unless there’s money, power or influence in it, people run out of steam — they can work for free for only so long.

The silver lining in this unhappy news is that Norm says he will continue posting occasionally on Chris Saxman’s VACostCutting blog.

When it rains it pours. Conaway Haskins, another of the Virginia blogosphere’s most talented writers (and contributor to this blog) is calling it quits. See his farewell post on his South of the James blog. Accepting a position in the office of Sen. James Webb, he has volunarily decided to shut down his blogging activity. “This is a great opportunity facilitated by my raised profile in the political world,” he writes.

Perhaps Conaway’s experience points us to the new blogging “business model” I’ve been looking for: Raising the blogger’s profile so he/she can find a better job opportunity!

In a push to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, Arlington County will buy more wind-generated electricity, give tax breaks for hybrid cars and require new public buildings to be green-certified, reports Annie Gowen at the Washington Post. The county also will provide a number of home energy audits, plant 1,200 trees and hand out 2,000 energy-efficient light bulbs at public events.

The county, which has reduced its greenhouse gas emissions by 2.6 percent since 2000, aspires to shave another 10 percent in the next five years. Board Chairman Paul Ferguson says he was inspired by Al Gore’s movie about global warming, “An Inconvenient Truth.”

Ferguson estimates that the program will cost about $5 million in capital costs, while other initiatives like energy audits and handing out compact fluorescent bulbs will run less than $100,000. The initiative comes at a time that the county faces a projected $20 million budget shortfall due to the downturn in housing values and anticipated property tax revenues.

I’m torn. I’m all in favor of energy conservation. I favor policies that reduce pollution, shift consumption from depletable to renewable resources and wean the country from its crippling dependence upon overseas energy sources. But I’m a skeptic of the more hysterical claims made by global warming alarmists (for reasons explained in previous posts on this blog). Even if the entire world followed Arlington’s example and aspired to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 10 percent over the next five years, the impact on global temperatures would be too small to measure.

If a private company wants to indulge its ideological convictions by investing its own private capital to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, that’s the company’s business. When a municipality commits its resources to do the same thing, it’s the taxpayers’ business. If Arlington County can demonstrate that its investment in energy conservation can pay for itself, then I applaud Ferguson and the board for its vision. If the initiative fritters away tax dollars for an objective that provides no measurable benefit to its taxpayers, then I’m very dubious.

Ferguson lays out the county program, Fresh AIRE (Arlington Initiative to Reduce Emissions) here. From an environmental perspective, it appears to be ambitious and comprehensive. But it’s also a statement of faith. There is no budget impact analysis whatsoever. There is no Return on Investment analysis whatsoever. There is no way for taxpayers to see how much bang (reduction in greenhouse emissions) they’re getting for the buck. If Arlington really wants to cut greenhouse gas emissions, as opposed to engage in moral preening, there may be ways to spend its money more efficiently, such as purchasing European Union CO2 emission rights. But those options are not discussed.

For a great example of knowledge-wave thinking about education, take a look at the column about K-12 textbooks, written by Del. Christopher Peace, R-Mechanicsville, and published today in the Times-Dispatch. Peace doesn’t use the Toffleresque terminology of “Revolutionary Wealth” to put his argument into perspective, but I shall do it for him.

The problem, according to Peace, is that textbook publishers write their books for sale in California and Texas, with the result that educational agendas in those two states dictate content taught in the other 48. Furthermore, the books are expensive. Monopoly manufacturers sell two- to three-year-old textbooks at a premium to Virginia school districts almost as after-market goods. Translation into Toffler-ese: The textbook business is a classic case study of the industrial-wave, assembly-line, one-size-fits-all approach to education.

The Virginia Open Education Foundation is devising an end-run around Texas, California and the textbook publishers with the Virginia Open Textbook Project. The use of digital or print-on-demand technologies could save Virginia school systems a significant fraction of the $122 million a year spent on textbooks, Peace contends. Furthermore, “an open-education forum for print-on-demand textbooks could allow schools to digitally access and instantly deploy materials held in creative commons — similar to Wikipedia.”

Textbooks could be updated instantly to reflect critical new developments, such as the impact of 9/11 in social studies textbooks, or the demotion of Pluto from planet status in science textbooks. No more two- and three-year delays. Furthermore — Peace doesn’t say this, but it’s consistent with his logic — open-forum books could be easily customized for K-12 courses that come in different colors and flavors, encouraging experimentation and innovation in curricula. Translation into Toffler-ese: The Virginia Open Textbook Project exemplifies the potential of Knowledge Wave technologies and institutions to facilitate the inexpensive dissemination of knowledge.